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Amanpour

A War of Deception in Eastern Ukraine; Interview with Dmitry Peskov, Putin Spokesperson; What It Takes to Succeed; Imagine a World

Aired February 27, 2015 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST (voice-over): Tonight: a fragile truce in Ukraine and what is President Putin's next move? We ask one of the few

people who knows, his right-hand man and spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

Plus: he may not be popular, but is Putin a winner? What it takes to succeed -- we ask one of the biggest players on the U.K. political scene,

Alastair Campbell.

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AMANPOUR: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the special weekend of our program, where we look back at the main stories of the week.

For the first time since its cease-fire, there's evidence that the heavy weapons in the Ukraine conflict were finally being pulled back. But

the OSCE, the organization monitoring it, says they're not getting all the information they need from both sides and so they can't tell whether

weapons are actually moving back or simply moving around.

The question everyone is always asking: what the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is planning next. And we had a rare view from

inside the Kremlin this week.

Dmitry Peskov is the presidential press secretary and the deputy chief of the presidential executive office, very close to President Putin. He

joined me on the phone fresh from a meeting with the president at the Kremlin.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Dmitry Peskov, welcome back to our program. We're very pleased to have you.

I just want to start by asking you, you've just come from a meeting and you heard that the OSCE can't be sure whether at least from your side

the heavy weaponry is moving back.

Can you give a clarification on that?

DMITRY PESKOV, PUTIN'S PRESS SECRETARY: Well, of course, I don't think that I can give a clarification on behalf of OSCE because they're

working there itself. And they're monitoring the process there, there in the southeastern region of Ukraine. And we're here in Kremlin.

But also what we witnessed last couple of days is that what the process is very shaky and the process of withdrawal is very shaky. But

last couple of days this militia men of Donetsk, they started to withdraw their heavy artillery and we saw the TV footage of that withdrawal.

AMANPOUR: Let me ask you this, then, because obviously after the Minsk agreement was signed, several days later, the separatists took the

strategic town of Debaltseve and in fact President Putin urged the Ukrainian government to withdraw the troops there.

Now the OSCE reports that there has been shelling in places like Donetsk, but especially Mariupol.

Can you tell me whether these separatists are going to be allowed to move on Mariupol? And the French foreign minister and other leaders have

said if they do, that triggers another round of sanctions.

PESKOV: Well, actually Moscow is not a country -- I mean, Russia is not a country that is allowing or not allowing separatists to move towards

one city or one village or another.

AMANPOUR: Do you think they will? Do you think they will? Or is Russia encouraging them not to?

(CROSSTALK)

PESKOV: I don't think so. I mean, those people, those people are responding, are responding to hostile action, hostile attacks against their

own soil, against their own people. I mean, they are endangered and they are responding.

AMANPOUR: Let me ask you finally to reflect on the status of your relations with the West. I ask you this because a couple of years ago when

I last interviewed you, you talked about America being an important partner of Russia that America and Russia working together was important for

solving many of the world's difficult and intractable problems.

And you know that going back a decade or so when President Putin was first president, there was quite close cooperation on a variety of issues.

Do you believe that President Putin hopes to return to that kind of status or has he given up on that for good now?

PESKOV: Let's be frank, quite unexpectedly lots of water had passed under the bridges since that time.

(LAUGHTER)

PESKOV: So we have witnessed the tremendous changes in the global environment, in international relationships. We have witnessed a

tremendous clash of interests, clash of interests in the heart of Europe, in Ukraine.

So in the front of a legitimate armed takeover, armed duel that occurred in Kiev one year ago, Russia took a position -- a quite

understandable one but very, very frank, very open and very firm. And as soon as this position is accepted with understanding, I think that we all

be ready to resume our cooperation and our interaction that we all desperately need in order to be effective in combating challenges that we

all face.

As that happens, there will be a time for new renaissance in international relationships.

AMANPOUR: Well, awaiting that renaissance, Dmitry Peskov, thank you very much for joining me from Moscow tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: So that's the view from the Kremlin. But Europe and NATO remain worried, unconvinced that the cease-fire will hold. The Baltic

States are so concerned about Russian activity on their borders one of them, Lithuania, has brought back conscription for five years and started

instructed its people how to prepare and resist a Russian invasion.

While Estonia marked its Independence Day this week by parading NATO military hardware.

And Norway, which borders Russia, says NATO needs to increase spending and readiness.

The defense minister, Ine Eriksen Soreide, joined me here in the studio to talk about deterring further Russian aggression.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Minister Eriksen Soreide, welcome to the program.

INE ERIKSEN SOREIDE, NORWEGIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: Thank you.

AMANPOUR: Thank you for joining me. And let me ask you as Norway, as Europe, as NATO -- and here we have this map showing how closely your

country abuts Russia -- what impact does the activities in Russia have on you?

SOREIDE: Well, of course, it makes us -- we think our defense planning not because we see an imminent military threat from Russia towards

Norway now, but we know that intentions can change quickly.

AMANPOUR: And how more prepared? Because we've gone through a year now. We've got sanctions. And yet it hasn't really deterred President

Putin militarily.

SOREIDE: We do this along two lines. First and foremost, we need to be prepared to handle issues and to handle episodes in our own close areas.

And that's why we have also put some more of our frigates and also our airplanes towards the north in order to be able to go up and identify as

everyone else does as well.

At the same time, we need to prepare for a more vigilant NATO.

AMANPOUR: As we talk about upping NATO's defenses, do you believe right now that this Minsk cease-fire is holding?

SOREIDE: No, I don't think so. And I was quite keen on underlining when the agreement was a fact that I think we need to be prepared for this

not to happen as we expect it to.

And what we have seen during the period of so-called cease-fire since the Minsk agreement is that facts on the ground are changing again. And

especially the Russian side is using that period of time to both up their military presence but also to change the facts on the ground, which makes

it even more difficult, of course, to reach a political agreement.

AMANPOUR: Everybody has tried to get into President Putin's mind, what does Putin want? So now we understand that the heavy weapons are

starting to be pulled back, yet they did win Debaltseve, the strategic town after the cease-fire. And there are concerns they may move on the

strategic port of Mariupol.

Do you think that historically you have misread Putin's intentions, that you've simply not taken them seriously enough?

SOREIDE: Well, I think that what the whole of NATO has to realize after Georgia was that because we wanted to see Russia as a strategic

partner, we tried to look at Georgia as a deviation from that path, not as something that he wanted to communicate. And as --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: As an exception?

SOREIDE: As an exception, that's right.

If you look back at it, in hindsight, you would easily see that the rhetoric that he used in Georgia is something that we see coming again now

in Ukraine and the aggression that he used in Russia, is posing to Ukraine is, of course, something that causes alarming concern in many countries,

especially the eastern allies of NATO.

And we do what we can to reassure them and to be present in order to tell them that they are NATO countries and Article V applies to them as

well.

AMANPOUR: You've spoken a lot about hybrid warfare, war by deception. We hear endlessly the Russians denying that they have anything to do with

the separatists except spiritual backing.

They are waging a war of deception, the little green men, the people who go in without insignia. You've talked a lot about that.

But the question is, you recognize it, but are you winning it?

Most people think actually the West is losing this war.

SOREIDE: Aggression is aggression, whether there are small green men or it is an information campaign or a cyber warfare or conventional

warfare, because that's what's backing all of it up, the fact that you have huge forces on the border to Ukraine and sometimes over the border actually

makes it possible to do these (INAUDIBLE) on the inside.

Secondly, when you have decided and defined, you need to decide what to do with it and I think it's important to realize that the decision

structure in NATO is working quite slowly if something was to happen. That is something that --

AMANPOUR: Too slowly.

SOREIDE: -- that is something that we need to work on.

AMANPOUR: Do you see the West being able to get back to a status quo ante, to having a partnership with President Putin's Russia?

Or has that boat sailed?

SOREIDE: Well, I've said several times that when the dust settles and we've come to some sort of political agreement on Ukraine, we are faced

with a different Russia. It is no going back to some sort of normality or some sort of back to normal business because that normality does not exist.

That does not mean that we will not have a cooperation with Russia. Norway has had for decades, we have both a practical and pragmatic

cooperation and we still have a lot of it. But we are faced with a different Russia.

I want to warn against the fact that some people see this as something bad is going to pass. The situation has changed and it has changed

profoundly.

AMANPOUR: Ine Eriksen Soreide, thank you so much for joining me.

SOREIDE: Thank you for having me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: A British Parliamentary report has sharply criticized the West for, quote, "sleepwalking" into the Ukraine crisis, oblivious to

Russia's real ambitions.

So is Vladimir Putin a winner or a loser? You might be surprised to hear the answer. One of the U.K.'s sharpest and most notorious political

minds, Alastair Campbell, and his new book, "Winners and How They Succeed" -- that's next.

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AMANPOUR: Welcome back to the program.

What does it take to be a good or effective leader, a winner on the world stage? It's a question for party leaders here in the U.K. ahead of

spring elections, not to mention elsewhere like Israel and Nigeria, also holding elections.

One man who knows all about winning is the former British prime minister, Tony Blair's, closest adviser, Alastair Campbell, who helped

mastermind three election victories and who often courted controversy with his rough-and-tumble tactics.

Campbell joined me in the studio this week to talk about his new book, "Winners and How They Succeed." It looks at politics and Putin, Mourinho

and a monarchy for clues.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Alastair Campbell, welcome back to the program.

ALASTAIR CAMPBELL, TONY BLAIR'S FORMER PRESS SECRETARY: Thank you.

AMANPOUR: "Winners" is your new book.

What is it that is contained in this book that would provide great advice to today's politicians?

CAMPBELL: I think there are a lot of messages. But I think the first thing I'd say, both to people in business and politics, is that they all

say they love sport and they're passionate about sport. But actually I think if they stood back from the love a little bit and looked to the best

of A league sport, they can see things and learn some things that will actually help them.

AMANPOUR: Such as?

CAMPBELL: Teamship. I think if you think about how great teams are built, they don't just happen by chance.

AMANPOUR: Teamship is a really important concept. I mean, you'd think that that was an obvious thing for a group of politicians who want to

get into office.

But it isn't that --

(CROSSTALK)

CAMPBELL: Not at all.

AMANPOUR: -- so much rivalry.

CAMPBELL: Well, I actually -- I tell this story in the book about how a British filmmaker made this film called "The Class of '92," which is

about the Beckham generation at Manchester United, who all started as kids together and they grew up and they became this great soccer team.

And he made this film where he just took them back to their old haunts. And he came and he said to me, "I'd really like to do the same

about New Labour, do the same film," Tony, Gordon Brown, you, Peter Mandelson, would take -- would get them all together and -- I mean, I can

see you're already smiling, you're already laughing because it didn't happen. It's not going to happen.

And I think that's tragic because actually I think we could have -- we were great at team building but we weren't very good at teamship.

AMANPOUR: All right. And take it one step further. You are well- known for having discussed your own depression and mental health issues. You're a big campaigner for that.

And actually you have said that you would have advised Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to have gone to couples therapy and counseling. Apparently

you even suggested to Prime Minister Blair that he take some counseling ahead of the 2005 election. That's pretty radical advice.

CAMPBELL: Well, I've used it. And I went for a long time when I was -- I knew I was a depressive. I knew I had bouts of depression but I was

worried about the press, you know, finding out if I saw a psychiatrist or was on medication. So I didn't. And I think prior to that, when I had a

drink problem, that was a form of medication.

I remember with Jonathan Powell, Tony's chief of staff, who said in relation to Tony and Gordon, sometimes you feel like you're watching a

marriage disintegrate.

Well, what do you do when you watch a marriage disintegrate if you're a friend of the -- of the couple? You say have you thought about actually

trying to get somebody else in to help?

Now it was -- like the film, it was never going to happen. Gordon was then prime minister.

We lost the election in large part, I think, because over the piece that we did lots of great things, we fell apart. And you lose when you

fall apart. So winning, teamship, is fundamental.

AMANPOUR: All right. And one could ask you whether you're still losing. There is an "FT" cover that has Ed Miliband, the leader of your

party now, with the question, "Is Ed Ready?"

You've written a book about winners.

Is Ed ready?

Is Ed a winner?

CAMPBELL: I think Ed Miliband can win. Ed -- Cameron didn't win the last election; didn't get a majority when the playing field was as easy as

it could be. So Ed can win.

The other thing I'd say about that is that the only real test of his mettle in a winning-losing context thus far has been when he became leader

of the Labour Party in very, very difficult circumstances, that, you know, with the thing with David, his elder brother.

And so he's definitely got mettle. He's got calm. He's got resilience.

I haven't put him in the book because he hasn't won. But he can win.

AMANPOUR: Do you think it'll be a single party victory or a coalition again?

CAMPBELL: I find it almost impossible to call. I've called most elections right and I was a journalist and then in politics. In fact, I've

pretty much called all of them right in terms of roughly getting the result right, even the last one.

This one is almost impossible.

AMANPOUR: You are a Republican and yet you have a chapter about how the Queen and the monarchy are winners.

How do you come to that conclusion?

CAMPBELL: Partly because I am a Republican. This is a Republican British context, not Irish or American, may I say. Partly because I'm a

Republican. But if I go through all the things that I say, you need to have and to know about to win, strategy, teamship, leadership, data,

innovation, resilience, getting through a crisis, learning from setbacks, she's ticked all of those boxes.

And she's done it -- I mean, people look at her, she's probably the most famous and possibly even the most popular woman in the world. And the

-- 10-15 years ago, they were a bit rocky. They were very, very rocky. And she's got them now where, I think, in my lifetime, they're

unassailable.

So she's definitely a winner, no doubt about it.

AMANPOUR: You have Putin as a winner.

But if you put strategy, teamwork, all the rest of it, how does Putin come out a winner?

Because he's actually now isolated; his economy's collapsing. He's a pariah, really.

CAMPBELL: Look, he's on the cover. OK? What I say about --

AMANPOUR: And he's in your book.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMPBELL: Well there's me, behind him, frowning.

AMANPOUR: There you go.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMPBELL: What I say about Putin is that he does have a strategy. Now he may lose. He may lose. But I tell this story that, at the Brisbane

G20, where he went into the meeting with all these other leaders, Obama and the rest of them, and said you guys think you're going to bring me to my

knees. I'm the only one in this room who has a strategy.

Now it was boastful. He might be overreaching. But I think you have to say he has a sense of his own strategy. May not work. May not be a

winner. But I don't think at the moment the West really has a strategy for him.

AMANPOUR: What would your strategy be?

CAMPBELL: I think the only language he understands and respects is strength. And I think if you sense his weakness and you sense his

division, he'll exploit it.

So there's got to be a stronger response. I don't mean -- I'm not talking military. I'm talking about a stronger, clearer, more coherent,

diplomatic public policy response.

AMANPOUR: Some might say politics itself has been a loser over the last several years. Some talk about Alastair Campbell, the master of the

dark arts, the spinmeister. We don't like that, they say.

CAMPBELL: They say.

AMANPOUR: Now --

CAMPBELL: Some say.

AMANPOUR: -- some say.

Now, of course, you've got these things like the Edelman Trust Barometer; there's massive distrust of politics as usual.

Do you feel any sense of responsibility, culpability, anything you might have done differently that could have raised the trust rather than

have the trust in politicians plummet?

CAMPBELL: Possibly. However, however, if you're going to win something important, like an election or a cup final or the Super Bowl or a

Grand Prix, whatever it might be, you have to set an objective and then you have to devise the strategy to meet that objective.

Our objective was to win. And I don't make any apology for that. I think the way that -- too many politicians that go around pretend as if

winning an election is a terrible thing to do. If you don't win an election, there is nothing you can do.

So we set out to win the election in 1997; our strategy was modernization, the New Labour. Our tactics included trying to get a more

level playing field than the media. And I guess with Peter Mandelson and others, that's what we tried to do. That's the bit that the media get

upset about.

So we won. We had three general election victories, two of them massive. We were able to do a lot of big things. Some prime ministers --

Tony gets vilified by large parts of the media now.

If a conservative prime minister had done what Tony did in relation to Northern Ireland and nothing else, he'd have been lauded forever. Bank of

England independence, devolution to Scotland, minimum wage after 100 years of this country trying to get minimum wage. We got one under Labour

government.

So don't give me this stuff about we started spin. It's nonsense.

AMANPOUR: Alastair Campbell, "Winners" and what it takes to succeed. Thank you very much indeed.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMPBELL: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Now from winners and losers to villains: new research may be absolving one of history's greatest villains, the black rat. Everyone

knows those rodents spread the plague and the Black Death, which ravaged Europe centuries ago -- or did they? Science rescuing the rat's

reputation? Imagine that -- next.

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AMANPOUR: And finally tonight, imagine a world where a much maligned rodent finds a reprieve. The rat has had a bad rap over the centuries; by

far, its most deadly offense, spreading the Black Death across the world in the 14th century, killing 75 million people.

The disease wiped out a third of Europe's population and as much as 60 percent of the people here in Great Britain, leaving a body count so

massive that they are still being recovered as London digs up its past even today.

Over the centuries, the plague killed millions more with repeated breakouts. Rats have been blamed as the infamous vermin that carried the

deadly fleas that leapt onto humans, giving them the disease and spreading the epidemic.

But it seems that rats have been the victims of one of history's biggest framings and by fellow rodents no less -- the gerbil. Science is

now outing the truth through the trees. A team from the University of Oslo has been analyzing the plague period through tree rings and it's discovered

the weather didn't favor rats at the time, but gerbils. They are now believed to be the creatures that spread the plague along the Silk Road

trade route from Asia to the docks of Europe's biggest cities.

Of course, it's all still an educated theory and the scientists will next study ancient bones of human victims in order to find further proof

and perhaps rewrite the history books.

That is it for our program tonight. And remember you can always see the whole show online at amanpour.com, and follow me on Facebook and

Twitter. Thank you for watching and goodbye from London.

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