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Russia's Game in Syria; Labour Party Divisions Widen under Corbyn; Imagine a World. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired September 15, 2015 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[14:00:00]

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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST (voice-over): Tonight: President Putin ramps up Russian military in Syria.

Just what is his plan?

The inside look from a former Russian diplomat.

Also ahead, a political storm here in the U.K.

What will the newly elected Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, mean for the union?

The former first minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, joins me.

And later, refugee children in need of a smile. It is time to send in the clowns.

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AMANPOUR: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour.

President Putin is defending his new ramped-up intervention in Syria, which defies the United States by deploying a new military base, personnel and

equipment such as tanks, using air corridors that include Greek and Iraqi airspace to fly to Syria.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA (through translator): We have supported the Syrian government, I would like to say that, as it confronts

terrorist aggression; we have provided and will provide all the necessary military and technical support and we call on other countries to join us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: But last night on this program, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, lambasted Moscow's new move to bolster

Assad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SAMANTHA POWER, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: To support a regime like this and to not take account of the views of the vast majority of the Syrian

people that want to go in a different direction, is not going to either bring peace or actually succeed in defeating terrorism, which is what

President Putin says his priority is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Now rumors and reports of these new Russian maneuvers have been circulating for two weeks now until yesterday the Pentagon finally admitted

that it is seeing news of Russian deployments on a daily basis.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR (voice-over): And this satellite image taken on September 4th is said to show the early stages of construction of a Russian base at an

airport near Latakia.

And these images of an armored vehicle painted in Russian camouflage on the battlefield -- and not seen before in Syria -- recently aired on Syrian

television.

So what is Russia's game? I'm joined by Nikolay Kozhanov Moscow's former political attache to Tehran and now a Russian foreign policy expert at the

Carnegie Moscow.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Welcome to the program, Mr. Kozhanov.

NIKOLAY KOZHANOV, FORMER POLITICAL ATTACHE, RUSSIAN EMBASSY, TEHRAN: Hello.

AMANPOUR: What is President Putin's game?

Why more and a ramped-up military presence?

We know there's already Russian military and naval advisers, et cetera, in Tartus.

But why now? Why more?

KOZHANOV: Well, it's determined by two factors. First of all, by the development of the military situation on the ground in Syria during the

spring and summer and the losses of the regime, they demanded the Russians to increase the number of their arms supplies just to balance the situation

in Assad's favor.

And at the same time, we should also keep in mind the forthcoming General Assembly --

(CROSSTALK)

KOZHANOV: -- and it's also important for the Russians not to come to this assembly with empty hands. They are increasing their numbers on the

ground; they definitely show to the international community that you should deal with us and you should take our point into account.

AMANPOUR: So from your perspective, is it a full hand they want to come to the table with, just to say deal with us?

Or is it much more pragmatic and that is they absolutely want at all costs to preserve Assad in whatever rump state that that may take?

KOZHANOV: Well the Russian strategy is probably even a bit more complicated. So they are not fighting for Assad as a person but what the

Russians believe in, that Assad, as well as the Syrian regime, is the key element in their strategy of struggle against the IS, that they see as a

serious challenge for their national security.

And so far they see no alternative. As a result, they would like to launch the conflict settlement process in Syria and that's why they intensify

their interaction with all sponsors of Syrian opposition, but at the same time they need to be sure that Assad will make it long enough to see the

beginning of these negotiations.

AMANPOUR: So from your perspective, and from the Kremlin's perspective, what possibly can they hope for Assad -- yes, they're sending in more

military to bolster his depleted forces.

But what about his territory? Let's just look at this map, which shows in red the very small amount of Syrian territory that the Assad regime still

controls.

[14:05:00]

AMANPOUR: And there is word that Russia would be interested in at least defending this and bolstering this as somewhere Assad could stay.

KOZHANOV: Well, first of all, it's not the Russians who are determining the Assad strategy, fortunately or unfortunately.

And currently, it's obvious that the regime will decide to make the main stake on guarding the territory that forms its dominion, namely the socket

(ph) area, the coastal area and the main cities like Damascus, Homs and Hama.

And definitely the increasing the -- in the -- in the equipment and arms provided to them as well as the increasing the quality of arms provided, it

is supposed to help the Syrian authorities to implement their plan.

AMANPOUR: You know, you say Russia is not interested in Assad as a person. But that seems to fly in the face of what we've seen over the last 4.5

years, in every instance. The Russians have been his political cover and have simply not allowed any other kind of political solution without Assad.

And the Russians say they want to fight terrorism. But surely it is Assad who has been the main progenitor of the rise of ISIS.

So it all sort of doesn't make much sense at all.

KOZHANOV: Well, it depends on how we look at the situation. You know that to understand the Russians' move, you should not judge the real situation

on the ground. But you should try to have a look at how the Russians understand what's happening in Syria.

And in their mind, Assad is not the source of the problem; it's the key -- it's actually the way to solve it. And --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: Despite evidence to the contrary, that for 4.5 years with Russian support and Iranian military support, Assad has not been able to

solve it and it's not solvable, it seems, at the moment.

KOZHANOV: Well, again, the Russian authorities would probably not agree with you or with people who are supporting this point of view because for

them --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: But this is just a fact, it's not a point of view. I'm simply - -

(CROSSTALK)

KOZHANOV: -- as in -- but again, I can repeat that. It's not a matter of how the situation's developing on the ground. It's the matter how the

Russians are seeing it.

AMANPOUR: So do you think -- because obviously it's really sent the wind up Washington's sails; everybody, you heard what Ambassador Power said,

that this is just -- flies in the face of reality on the ground.

Do you think that President Putin is trying to say, look, President Obama, I'll come here with my new military base and start striking ISIS as well?

I mean, are they going to deploy fighter jets?

Are they going to deploy personnel, do you think, to launch strikes against ISIS?

KOZHANOV: Well, unfortunately we do not have a crystal ball to see the future. So far, from my point of view, the Kremlin is keeping in mind only

the increasing supplies. And this increase definitely demands this increase in the number of devices, who are to train the Syrian army, also -

-

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: And a new forward operating base; that is a specific piece of technical reality there.

KOZHANOV: Exactly. And you need people to guide these advisers and so that's why you're bringing Marines and each Marine has --

AMANPOUR: And we see it all in the satellite pictures.

KOZHANOV: Exactly. Exactly. But at the same time, so far I do not see any incentives for Moscow to bring forces on the ground to fight for Assad

as such.

First of all, it's difficult to make in terms of the expenses. The Russian economy is not able to sustain such a heavy loss, load, giving the Russian

involvement in the situation the Ukraine.

AMANPOUR: So do you think, then, that what President Putin is doing here - - and he's managed to get countries like Greece and Iraq to defy a U.S. request not to allow Russian transport planes to fly through their

airspace; Bulgaria has said no, but the Greeks are letting him and then Iraq -- which, by the way, depends on the United States right now for its

very survival against ISIS -- is allowing this to happen.

It does seem to be setting up yet another chapter in a confrontation with the U.S. and perhaps taking the world's eye off what Russia's doing in

Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

KOZHANOV: Well, I would be a bit cautious about mixing these two stories, the Ukrainian story and the Syrian story for Moscow. Definitely they are

interdependent. But only in terms, the both of them, they represent challenges for the Russians but challenges of a different nature because,

while what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is mainly related to their relations with the West, at the same time, the Syrian challenges, the

challenge for them is national security as such.

And I remember talking to Russian officials a couple of years ago when the Maidan -- Euro Maidan has --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: Those were the independence and democracy protests.

KOZHANOV: Yes, exactly.

And what they were saying, they were saying that we are a bit concerned, that we won't be able to deal with both of these challenges --

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KOZHANOV: -- because the Russian resources, they are limited and they could be overstretched.

AMANPOUR: What do you think we're going to hear from President Putin at the U.N. General Assembly?

What is the end game?

KOZHANOV: Well, generally, he is -- well, his view on the situation in Syria was clearly stated just today in Dushanbe, during the CSTO meeting.

So he was saying about the necessity to, on the one hand, launch the national dialogue in Syria between the Assad regime and what he determines

as healthy opposition -- that's still quite a big question what he means by this.

On the other hand, he's trying to create the anti-IS coalition but in the way how the Russians are seeing this.

And by the way, they managed to achieve some success and progress in this, just we should take into account, for instance, the visit of the Egyptian

president in August to Moscow, where the General Sisi officially confirmed that he would be interested in supporting the Putin's point of view.

And the Russians, they are also quite active in establishing dialogue with the Gulf states and with the United States. And, in some cases, what the

Western officials as well as the Russian officials are saying, they managed to start creating the common ground for the understanding.

But again, these processes demand time and serious (INAUDIBLE) conflict.

AMANPOUR: Lax time? Yes, indeed, it does.

Nikolay Kozhanov, thank you very much indeed for joining us tonight.

KOZHANOV: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: And after a break, the British prime minister, David Cameron, is trying to get Parliament here to approve military strikes against ISIS in

Syria. But the new Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is against that. And he's rattling his party and much of the country with his left-wing

domestic policies as well.

So could the newly empowered Westminster ranks of the Scottish National Party be the big winners?

One year after losing the independence referendum there, I asked Scotland's former first minister, Alex Salmond. That's next.

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AMANPOUR: Welcome back to the program.

Now he's been in the job for just three days and already Jeremy Corbyn's honeymoon period seems to be well and truly over. Corbyn, the new leader

of the U.K. opposition Labour Party, is facing increasing pressure from within his own party to state his position on an array of policies,

including Britain's E.U. membership.

The confusion is dividing Labour, which is a party still struggling to find its feet after being trounced in May's general election. And nowhere was

this defeat more crushing than in Scotland, where it lost 40 of its 41 seats to the Scottish National Party.

So does a weakened Labour Party mean the SNP is now the only real opposition to the ruling Conservative Party in government?

And what does a strong SNP mean for Scottish independence?

Alex Salmond led the independence campaign; he is the former first minister and he joins me now in the studio.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

Welcome to the program.

ALEX SALMOND, FORMER FIRST MINISTER OF SCOTLAND: Pleasure to be here.

AMANPOUR: So are you gleeful? Are you happy? Are you gloating?

What is going through your head as you see this new leader of the Labour Party, who, as you can see, is being roundly criticized?

SALMOND: Well, Jeremy Corbyn's been in the job for three days, as you say. But I've known him for 30 years. And I like him. I've liked him for 30

years.

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SALMOND: And he's going to get huge attacks, of course, because he has views which are in the margins of British politics. And therefore the

press will gang up to assault him.

But I think his key difficulty is not going to be that press assault. It's going to be from within the Labour Party.

AMANPOUR: I was going to say, the political assault from his own party is -- way outweighs anything the press is saying.

SALMOND: That's his biggest problem. And you know, I can speak from personal experience. When I became a political leader back in the 1990s,

if you're fighting front and back, then it's very difficult to make progress. It's only when the SNP became internally cohesive that we

started to become successful.

And I think the Labour Party's in for some interesting times; as the Chinese curse used to say --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: Indeed. And internally cohesive is what the Labour Party is not now.

Do you think that the Labour Party has a chance of winning, of being back in government under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership?

SALMOND: No, I think the most likely a position is that they'll tear themselves apart. And the right wing press -- of course, most of the

British press is right wing -- will rather gleefully pick up the -- pick up the pieces from that.

But you know, I think the overwhelming likelihood is internal divisions will undo Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, which is a pity in some ways, because

part of his election reflects something very substantial, not just in British or Scottish politics or perhaps even American politics, but across

the Western world.

There is a huge discontent with political elites, with establishments. And people are looking for a different message and a different presentation.

So part of Jeremy Corbyn's success reflects that. So in a way, it's going to be sad, which I believe is almost inevitable that he'll be undone by the

Labour Party's internal divisions.

AMANPOUR: And what does that mean, then?

Let's just take your party in Westminster. If Labour is not, you know, a strong opposition for this government, are you? Is the SNP the de facto

opposition party?

SALMOND: Well, that's what's been developing since the election. I mean, under the old Labour Party leadership -- you know, we moved to occupy their

benches symbolically in the House of Commons because they kept abstaining on everything.

I don't think they'll be abstaining under Jeremy Corbyn. I think Jeremy will tend to vote rather than abstain.

But nonetheless, if they don't look like a realistic attempt of government -- and they certain don't look like that at the present moment -- then the

trend towards the SNP in Scotland -- which is already massive, you know, we're talking about poll ratings over 50 percent for my successor, Nicola

Sturgeon -- then I think that will be intensified.

I think independence becomes the only alternative to decades of Conservative rule at Westminster --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: All right, let's talk about that --

SALMOND: -- one of the great rules in politics is Scotland does not have much time for the Conservative Party.

AMANPOUR: Well, indeed. Your successor, according to some polls, has a record 71 percent approval. So she's doing great --

(CROSSTALK)

SALMOND: -- American presidents would die for --

AMANPOUR: -- would die -- and many leaders across Europe would die for this. Of course, big, tough decisions haven't yet been made and who knows

what'll happen when the realities of economic policy shape up and also, you know, the oil prices and all of that.

But I want to ask you this: Len McCluskey, who is obviously the head of Unite Union, who's a big Corbyn backer, says this about a subject you're

talking about, independence, that far from precipitating another Scottish referendum, Corbyn could win back Labour supporters in Scotland.

But you think no.

SALMOND: No, because Labour's remaining appeal in Scotland, such as it is -- remember, this is a party which was wiped out in the general election in

May -- Labour's appeal depends on them being able to present themselves as an alternative government at Westminster. If they lose that, then they

lose any credibility in Scotland whatsoever.

And they are on the verge of losing that totally. I mean, if you (INAUDIBLE) Labour MPs in the Westminster in the present moment, you'd be

lucky if you got one in 10 who said they're going to win the next election. And it's very difficult to convince the people you're going to win an

election if you don't believe that yourself.

AMANPOUR: And of course all of this is the question that keeps everybody on tenterhooks, not just here in Britain, but across in Europe and around

the world, are you going to go for another referendum?

Is Scotland going to seek independence again?

Let me play you the sound bite that you put after the last referendum and then we'll talk about it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SALMOND: In my view, this is a once-in-a-generation, perhaps even a once- in-a-lifetime opportunity for Scotland.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: So are lifetimes and generations short in Scotland?

Because you're also talking about an inevitable, soon-to-come new referendum.

(CROSSTALK)

SALMOND: Let's say "the opportunity of a lifetime" is a commonly enough used phrase --

AMANPOUR: So not serious?

SALMOND: -- no, the phrase that was used -- and I used many times -- is my expectation was that constitutional referendum is something that happens

once in a political generation, which I defined as the gap between the two devolution referendums, one that happened back in --

AMANPOUR: How many years are we talking about?

SALMOND: -- long, long before you would remember; back in '79 and another one in 1997, which was an 18-year period. That was my view. That was what

I thought was likely.

The interesting thing is, of course, that the -- partly because of =decisions that were being made at Westminster, that timescale --

[14:20:00]

SALMOND: -- looks like it's been dramatically shortened.

Why?

Because the Conservative Party have refused to implement the promise, the commitment, the vow they made to Scotland in order to try and win the

referendum last year.

Austerity, look, we were promised devolution to the max, devo to the max. We're now getting austerity to the max. That is something which is -- sits

very badly with people in Scotland.

They're now spent off nuclear weapons to be in Scotland for the next half century and more, another factor. And perhaps the most immediate thing is

David Cameron gambling with Scotland's European future.

Let's think about the situation where England voted to leave the European Union; Scotland voted to stay in --

AMANPOUR: Well --

SALMOND: -- what then about the constitution?

So I think there's a number of things which are pressurizing to dramatically shorten the timescale, which I previously thought that once in

a generation was most likely --

AMANPOUR: So how is dramatically shortened?

I mean, apparently, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister, is going to put it in the manifesto. Polls are still very much divided on whether the Scottish

people want it or not.

When do you -- can you foresee -- what is a dramatic shortening of the timetable?

SALMOND: OK. Well, there's been -- I think I'm right in saying -- 26 polls since the referendum --

AMANPOUR: All right. But when should there be a --

SALMOND: -- all 26 have shown a movement towards, yes, some have shown yes and the leader probably, two recent polls, have shown that.

But I tend to think about polls as -- when I started independence campaign three years ago, independence was at 28 percent -- not at 50 percent, at 28

percent and that movement forward curbed over the campaign period.

So I don't think it's just that the polls that's going to interest Nicola Sturgeon. What I think she'll be interested in is the issues. She'll be

interested in whether the U.K. government fulfills the vow they made to Scotland. It doesn't look like it at the present moment, whether they

continue with the austerity economics, which is causing so much --

AMANPOUR: How many years? Because you've laid that out.

SALMOND: Well, I'm saying that's what she's going to look at. I think she's going to look at the issues. And she'll set out what issues are

going to determine the timescale of the referendum.

But you know, I'm in a great position. I'm no longer first minister of Scotland. I'm not leader of the Scottish National Party --

AMANPOUR: Well, you're pushing for it.

SALMOND: -- I'm a member of the Scottish parliament. I'm member of the Westminster Parliament. I am able to say, when you look me in the eye and

ask me that question, I can look you right back and say that's a matter for Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish people.

AMANPOUR: Indeed, with a lot of -- with a lot of backing from Alex Salmond.

I want to ask you one more question.

David Cameron is probably going to Parliament to ask for authority to strike the terrorists in Syria, ISIS.

I don't know whether Labour's going to support him; Corbyn won't.

Will you? Will the SNP in Parliament?

SALMOND: No, because the prime minister has not put forward a coherent argument as to why --

AMANPOUR: Is there anything that would make you support it?

SALMOND: -- well, if it was a credent argument as to how it was going to help the situation, but nobody, nobody believes, not even Cameron, I

suspect, that a marginal addition to the number of sorties being flown in Syria by the Royal Air Force is going to make any difference whatsoever to

the situation in Syria and the Middle East.

Instead of the gung ho military interventions, which have caused so much damage to this country and to yours over recent years, let's have a little

bit of planning and thought as to what we're trying to do to bring about a solution to some of these difficulties, as opposed to this ridiculous

nonsense that a marginal addition to the number of sorties being flown is going to make any difference whatsoever.

So what we're looking for is a coherent policy from the prime minister and as yet we haven't had it.

AMANPOUR: We'll have you back to tell us if he does give us one.

Alex Salmond, thank you very much indeed.

SALMOND: My great pleasure. Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: So the hope for a one Britain may be a distant one today, but 75 years ago it was united and strong in defense of the homeland and on this

anniversary, the nation joins to remember fighting and winning the Battle of Britain in 1940.

Afterwards, Prime Minister Winston Churchill arted a memorable tribute to the Royal Air Force pilots, who, in their Spitfires and Hurricanes, soared

through the skies above London.

"Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed to so many by so few," words that have lived on to this day.

And after a break, imagine a world where war and desperation have robbed children of their smiles. Imagine that is forgotten at least for one day.

Clowning around in Austria -- next.

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AMANPOUR: And finally tonight, despite the daily evidence, it is hard to compute these images of unbearable suffering, refugees drowning in dinghies

off tourist coasts in E.U., trudging through fields and mud and along highways on foot to reach safety on our continent.

Think of the generation of traumatized children being raised now. So it's good to imagine a world that's sending in the clowns, real clowns with red

noses, turning up in one of Vienna's main train stations to provide a much- needed laugh for the children who have been fleeing the horrors of their homelands.

Red Noses International is an organization that aims to bring back laughter after trauma. Their clown doctors work at children's hospitals and relief

organizations across the world. It's great to see these smiles amid so much sadness and fear, which surely will be on the rise now that Hungary is

implementing a new law arresting refugees trying to cross its border with Serbia, the latest chapter in Europe's refugee playbook.

That's it for our program tonight. And remember you can always see the whole show online at amanpour.com and follow me on Facebook and Twitter.

Thank you for watching and goodbye from London.

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