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The Lead with Jake Tapper

GOP Centrists Choose Nuclear Option In Fight Over Obamacare; New Details Revealed In Brown University Killings; Trump Orders Blockade of Some Oil Tankers to and From Venezuela; Trump Says Wiles Will Remain Chief Of Staff; U.S. Admits Failure In Deadly Midair Collision Near D.C.; Tennessee Dems Optimistic About Midterms. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired December 17, 2025 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Beautiful bill. Permanent tax cuts, deregulation, energy prices are low. These are things that they did that they have to continue to sell. It is the centerpiece of his domestic policy agenda. We just got to sell it now for the election season.

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Right. Well, and of course, tariffs also a centerpiece of that. And no small, you know, reason why some of these prices have not gone in the direction that would be helpful for a voter like the one we just saw.

All right, guys, thanks very much for being with us this hour. Jake Tapper is standing by for The Lead. Hi, Jake.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Hey, Kasie. We'll see you back in the arena tomorrow.

HUNT: See you soon.

TAPPER: Today, House Speaker Mike Johnson felt the need to say, quote, I have not lost control of the House. The Lead starts right now.

The House speaker on defense as four Republicans break with his party and side with Democrats to force a vote on a health care deal before the deadline expires. A Republican who says Speaker Johnson needs to do better is going to join us in moments.

Plus, the breaking news from Providence, Rhode Island. New details just moments ago in the search after the killings at Brown University. While sources revealed the missteps early on in this case that led to The FBI initially IDing the wrong man and blatant insults in these plaques of presidents past that the White House says President Trump wrote himself.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper. We're going to start with our Politics Lead today in a Republican rebellion on Capitol Hill. Just before the holiday break, four House Republicans broke ranks with House Speaker Mike Johnson and the GOP leadership and joined the Democrats to force a vote on extending those Obamacare subsidies we've been telling you about for months.

A day after Speaker Johnson said he would not allow a regular House floor vote on extending those subsidies before they expire at the end of the year. Speaker Johnson insisting he has, quote, not lost control of the House. But, well, people are not happy. Take a listen to Missouri Republican Congressman Eric Burleson.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ERIC BURLISON (R-MO): They're stabbing the rest of the party in the back. I think it's politically shortsighted. What we really need to do is a wholesale reform of the Obamacare system.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Burlison going after those four Republicans who signed on with the Democrats. And those Republicans are New York Congressman Mike Lawler and three congressmen from Pennsylvania, Brian Fitzpatrick from outside Philly, Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan. Each of them say they were forced to take this nuclear option and side with the Democrats.

We should note Lawler and Fitzpatrick are two of three Republicans who represent congressional districts that voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump. Mackenzie is from a district that Trump won by only 3 percentage points. Bresnahan is from a district in Pennsylvania that Trump won fairly handily. But Democrats such as Governor Shapiro and Senator Fetterman have won that district in the past.

Now Democrats have the 218 signatures needed to force a vote on their proposed three-year extension on these Obamacare tax credits. As Lawler insists that this is about much more than just party politics.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MIKE LAWLER (R-NY): These premium tax credits are going to expire at the end of the year and it has a direct impact on millions of Americans. This is not about party loyalty. This is about doing the job I was elected to do and forcing the body to actually work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: over in the Senate, Democrat Dick Durbin from Illinois, who voted to end the shutdown in exchange for the promise of a vote on extending the Obamacare subsidies. He's optimistic. He says that the House vote could unlock some positive momentum, though realistically it would take a Christmas miracle for the House and the Senate to pass anything before the end of the year with House Republican leaders planning on sending members of Congress home tomorrow, according to sources.

Joining us now to discuss, Republican Congressman Nick LaLota is on the Appropriations Committee and represents part of Long Island, New York. Congressman, thanks so much for joining us. Is it your understanding that Congress is going to adjourn tomorrow?

REP. NICK LALOTA (R-NY): Yes, I think we're set to go home either today, excuse me, Thursday or Friday. But beforehand the House is expected to vote tonight on the floor in a Republican health care package that would start to address some of the longer term issues related to everybody's health care.

And the CBO has scored the bill that we're intending on voting on tonight to reduce health care premiums by 12 percent. That's an important long term approach that Congress should take. But as you covered in the segments before me, we are struggling over how to address shorter term solutions related to these tax credits are about to expire.

TAPPER: Yes. Let's talk about the short term problem and the extension of the Obamacare subsidies. Why didn't you sign on to the discharge petition with the other four Republicans? And if this comes up for a vote, and I realize it's unlikely, would you vote for it?

[17:05:01]

LALOTA: To your last question, yes. If it is the only plan offered, I will vote for it. My colleagues, my good friends Fitzpatrick, Lawler, McKenzie and Bresnahan were simply quicker than I was to it. There was a rush to sign the discharge petition this morning when all of our amendments that we thought were common sense and bipartisan helped meet the moment when they failed in the Rules Committee last night.

Members like me who were supporting those common sense bipartisan amendments were eager to sign that petition. I'm proud that my friends and colleagues did so this morning.

TAPPER: So it doesn't sound like the extension of the Obamacare subsidies. That vote is going to happen before the subsidies expire at the very end of the month. Do you think that Congress has failed the American people?

We have been covering this issue for months and months. This deadline is now was not a secret. And now Christmas is coming and members of Congress are going to go home and a lot of Americans, 24 million, are going to lose these subsidies and many of them are not going to be able to afford health insurance.

LALOTA: Yes, a police chief with whom I used to work used to say if it's predictable, it's preventable. This issue was absolutely predictable. The expiry of these tax credits were in fact predictable by all 435 members of Congress.

But when three years ago when Democrats passed them, they were called temporary and pandemic related. They were always meant to be just that. However, a lot of Americans, innocent people acting reasonably, tended to start to rely on them.

But they tend to mask the underlying issues with Obamacare. And if you go back 15 years ago when Obamacare was passed, now you have premiums rising 60 percent faster than inflation, one in three families, claims are denied, all while insurance companies are making a gazillion dollars off of the backs of taxpayers.

There are some inherent flaws in Obamacare and I think it's up to both parties to address those flaws. Like I said, Republicans are going to vote on a Republican bill tonight that tends to address some of the longer term issues. But Congress also needs to attack the shorter term issues that relate to the expiry of these tax credits.

TAPPER: You told my colleagues, Manu Raju, that Speaker Johnson needs to do better. Do you think he's still an effective speaker?

LALOTA: Listen, Mike Johnson is a friend, he's a religious man, he's a family man. He's balancing a very delicate narrow majority. If the shoe was on the other foot and Democrats had just a couple of seat majority, I think that you would see a little of the same behavior between the wings of its party. But that is the function of this Congress.

I hope that my speaker appreciates the moment that is before us. I hope that he allows votes on common sense bipartisan bills that are good for both the nation's short and long term approach to health care. That's good politics. It's good government. It's common sense. I hope he allows for votes on those common sense bills.

TAPPER: As you know, President Trump's pollster Tony Fabrizio warned in July, months ago, six months ago, that there was broad bipartisan support among the American people for extending these subsidies. How worried are you that this is just going to be another example of issues of affordability that voters hold your party responsible for come the midterms in November?

LALOTA: Well, a proper analysis of this should reflect upon this being a failed system that Democrats passed into law. Those premiums rising 60 percent greater than inflation over the last 15 years is not a problem that Republicans created. And there are Republicans like me looking for a solution. And we're looking for friends from both parties to join in on a long term solution.

Representatives Higgins and Fitzpatrick, common sense Republicans, have offered bipartisan solutions to both short and long term issues with our nation's health care. They've gotten support from members of the Problem Solvers Caucus, both sides of the aisle. I think that if we are going to move forward both governmentally and politically, it's going to be around compromise bills like those from either Higgins or Fitzpatrick or others, because this my way or the highway or just continue the status quo isn't working for America. I think both parties need to come together for a solution on these things.

TAPPER: New York Republican Congressman Nick LaLota. Thank you so much. Appreciate your time, sir.

Breaking news just moments ago, police gave new information and they're searching for a person of interest in that deadly shooting at Brown University. We're going to go live to Providence, Rhode Island.

And later, military commanders appearing to contradict Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on questions about a second strike on that suspected drug boat on September 2nd. And video of that strike. We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:13:50]

TAPPER: Breaking news in our National Lead, just moments ago, authorities in Rhode Island provided the latest information on the Brown University shooting investigation. This on what is now day five of an unidentified killer remaining on the loose. Let's go straight to CNN's Brian Todd, who's in Providence, Rhode Island, with the latest on this case. Brian?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Right, Jake. Just moments ago, the police told us about a second person who they want to talk to in relation to this case who they say may have, they believe, crossed paths with the person, the main person of interest in the shooting. They say they don't necessarily believe there's any criminal contact, but this person was in proximity to that person. They want to talk to that second person.

In addition, they issued a new map of the area where this person, the main person of interest, was walking before and after the shooting occurred. But also, I spoke to a student named Joe McGonagle a short time ago. He talked about a serious security lapse in the Barus and Holley Building where the shooting took place. He said in almost every other building in Brown University. Once you get past the lobby, which you can get into easily, there's a security guard beyond that in almost every building except that one. Take a listen to what Joe McGonagall said.

[17:15:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSEPH MCGONAGLE, JR., BROWN UNIVERSITY STUDENT: Most of the buildings, all the libraries, et cetera, they were -- they had a lobby that anyone could get into. But after anywhere you tried to go after the lobby, they had a security guard where you had to swipe in. Barus and Holley was one of the only buildings that didn't have something like that where they didn't have like a security guard waiting there out like checking you in at the lobby.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: And McGonagle called that a security failure. We have run that by the university. They have not responded to our email on that, him calling it a failure. But the police chief of Brown University, Rodney Chapman, did just confirm that indeed they did not have a security guard in that building. He said that was fairly typical. But that student Joe McGonagle said no, that's not typical. He said they have usually have security guards in the building beyond the lobby areas. Jake.

TAPPER: CNN senior justice correspondent Evan Perez is also with us. Evan, you have some new reporting on what led up to the detention and then eventual release of a man that authorities had called a person of interest at one point.

EVAN PEREZ, CNN SENIOR JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jake. Well, a lot of consternation was focused on that tweet on Sunday from the FBI director, Kash Patel, who took credit for the FBI's work using cell phone signal data, cell phone tower data, to identify that person of interest and to detain them at a hotel. Well, at the time that he did that inside the investigation, investigators already knew that his cell phone was not found at that scene. It had not been identified at the scene of the shooting.

They also doubts about whether he was at all involved had already been present among the investigators. And those doubts only grew because they later did a test of some of the evidence, the shell casings, his DNA was not found on there. He -- they did not find that the ballistics matched from the shell casings to the two guns, the two handguns that were found in his hotel room.

So the question that officials certainly locally we're asking is why did the FBI director sort of jump the gun, so to speak, and make that tweet? That's one of the things that has driven a lot of the tensions behind the scene in this investigation. Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Evan Perez and Brian Todd, thanks to both of you. A reminder of the two lives lost from this attack. Two Brown students, Ella Cook from Birmingham, Alabama, she was an accomplished pianist, interested in French. She volunteered at her church. The other victim, Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov, he was from Midlothian, Virginia, which is right near Richmond.

The Brown University president described him as driven and disciplined. He wanted to make a positive impact in the world by becoming a neurosurgeon. To those families of those two bright lights, our condolences. May their memories be a blessing. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:22:12]

TAPPER: In our World Lead today, President Trump attended the dignified transfer earlier for the two U.S. service member and the one interpreter killed in Syria. On Saturday, the President met with family members alongside the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

The two soldiers were Sergeant Edgar Brian Torres Tovar, a 25-year-old from Des Moines, Iowa and Sergeant William Nathaniel Howard, a 29- year-old from Marshalltown, Iowa. May their Memories be a blessing.

Also in our World Lead today, President Trump has ordered a, quote, complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers coming and going from Venezuela. He also demanded oil and land and assets that he claimed Venezuela stole from the United States, assets in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Democrats remain unconvinced that follow up strike on the alleged drug boat on September 2nd was legal after Defense Secretary Hegseth refused to show full unedited video of the strike in a classified briefing for the Senate yesterday.

In that classified briefing. No, I'm sorry. In a classified briefing today for the House, Congressman Jason Crow said he specifically asked U.S. military commanders if there was any reason they could not release the full video. They told him, Crow says no, there is no reason. Joining us now, Democrat from Michigan, Senator Elissa Slotkin. Senator, you've now seen the unedited version of the strike. Walk us through what you saw, what you're allowed to tell us.

SEN. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-MI): Yes, I mean, it was a classified briefing and again, they should just release the video and they've released videos for all the other strikes, but it was a classified briefing. So I will just say it didn't change the conversation that we've been having, which is kind of this second strike and whether it was justified.

But I think the bigger picture here and that has really developed over the last, you know, 24 hours is the Trump administration really speaking out of both sides of their mouth on what we're actually doing with these strikes and what their plan is with Venezuela and for the president today and Stephen Miller to talk very openly about how Venezuela stole our oil, you know, I guess back in 1976, I mean, 49 years ago, and that, you know, that there needs to be -- that Maduro needs to go, in the words of the chief of staff to the president.

I just think the bigger story here is what is the battle rhythm leading up to potentially more military action on Venezuela and is that something the country, you know, after Iraq and Afghanistan that we're interested in right now?

TAPPER: I want to get to that subject in a second. But on this issue of the second strike, I want you to take a listen to Missouri Republican Senator Eric Schmidt talking about what he saw of the video of the second strike.

[17:25:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. ERIC SCHMITT (R-MO): 100 percent legally justified. Any Democrat comes out here and questions that they're lying to you. They're lying to you because they don't like Pete Hegseth. They don't like President Trump, and they're willing to throw service members and highly decorated military men and women under the bus and, by the way, encourage people to break the chain of command because they don't like Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: That last comment seems like it was directed at you and the other five Democrats who told U.S. service members to refuse any illegal orders.

SLOTKIN: Yes. You know, what's interesting is that, I mean, I'm a former CIA officer. I was involved in targeting operations in previous wars, and America was in. This is the only time in my lifetime that I remember seeing a classified legal justification. Literally, you're not able to read it. If you're a member of the public, if you're one of the service members involved in these operations, there's a secret list of about 12, 20 terrorist organizations, as they call them, these groups that they're going after. They won't tell us who's on the list.

So if there's a lack of trust, it's not in our service members and the service members, by the way, that are coming to many of us and saying, like, hey, I'm just not sure. I don't know. Our legal justification is this right. It's not about our service members.

It's about the people leading. It's about the Secretary of Defense and this very sort of punch first, sloppy way of approaching everything, a job so important as the Secretary of Defense. So it's not that we don't trust the service members. So I served alongside him my whole life. It's -- I don't trust their leadership. And that was reinforced yesterday when Mr. Hegseth came back down to Congress to talk about these strikes, literally, as Mr. Rubio and Secretary Hegseth are telling us that the only thing they're doing is going after these boats because they're carrying drugs.

At the same time, we have the chief of staff to the president, you know, captured in the Vanity Fair article, talking about, well, the whole point is just to get Maduro out, right?

TAPPER: Yes.

SLOTKIN: It's regime change. So, like, get your story straight before you come and brief the Senate. And again, it's the leadership I have concerns about, not the service members.

TAPPER: On the matter. You were talking about President Trump saying that the campaign against Venezuela will continue, quote, until such time as they, meaning the Venezuelans, returned to the United States of America, all of the oil, land and other assets they stole previously from us.

I guess this is a reference to the fact that American companies had a much larger presence in Venezuela's oil fields until the country put the sector under state control in the 70s. But what do you make of this framing of they stole our land. They stole our oil, about oil fields and land in Venezuela?

SLOTKIN: Well, look, I think it's -- if folks who are old enough remember the accusations against the Bush administration that they went to war in Iraq because they allegedly wanted oil. You know, and there was nothing like, you know, a statement from the president that we had today saying, yes, they stole our oil. That's what we're going into. That's what we want back.

You know, their oil fields were nationalized in 1976, 49 years ago. I don't think the average American woke up and said, this is something I feel passionately about. And certainly, you know, whether you're a Democrat or Republican, I don't know a single person who's looking to get into another armed conflict, another potential endless war where you break it, you buy it. So I just think we should watch this space, right. When Stephen Miller

was so close to the president and the chief of staff to the president are all saying they want Maduro out, right? Regime change. They all saying they want the oil, like they're telling you what they want to do. And I think we need to hear that and have a discussion as a country. That's something that's in our interest and we want to do.

TAPPER: All right. Democrat from Michigan, Senator Alissa Slotkin. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

SLOTKIN: Thank you.

TAPPER: President Trump standing by his chief of staff, Susie Wiles after this bombshell interviews with Vanity Fair. Chris Whipple, the historian and author who conducted those interviews, is going to join me here next live on The Lead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: In our Politics Lead, moments ago, President Trump giving White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles a public vote of confidence, saying she's doing a great job. When asked whether she would remain in that job after Wiles delivered a series of rather revealing and blunt assessments of Trump and his agenda and some of his closest allies, in 11 rather candid interviews he did with Vanity Fair writer Chris Whipple.

Among the shocking quotes, Wiles described Trump as having an alcoholic's personality. He called Vice President J.D. Vance a conspiracy theorist and has turned to MAGA as sort of political. She was also critical of parts of the tariff and deportation agenda, two of Trump's signature policies, and much, much more, as we covered yesterday.

Vanity Fair writer Chris Whipple joins us now. Thanks so much, Chris. So two of the most consequential revelations from your interviews is that, one, Wiles said the strikes on alleged drug votes is about regime change in Venezuela. And two, that the prosecution against Letitia James might be considered political retribution.

Both of those could have huge impacts geopolitically in one case and politically in the other. Why do you think she was so candid with you?

CHRIS WHIPPLE, WRITER, VANITY FAIR: Yes, it was really stunning to me, Jake. Over 11 interviews, almost a year of speaking to her. You know, there's been a lot of speculation about why she would talk to me. Theories that she had some Machiavellian plot to set herself up for a post-Trump career. I -- I think, frankly, that it's much simpler than that.

[17:35:05]

I think that she thought, she told me, and at any rate, that she felt that Trump, during his first term, had been vilified by the media, he'd gotten a terrible shake, and she thought I would give her a fair hearing. And I honestly think that's why she spoke to me. TAPPER: Yes, and for the people who don't know, you have literally written the book about White House chiefs of staff. You are the world expert on White House chiefs of staff, so going with you is not really all that odd. We've seen so many of the officials Wiles was critical of in her interviews with you rally on social media to support her after the Vanity Fair article was published.

And one example, Attorney General Pam Bondi, who Wiles accused of having completely whiffed on handling the Epstein files, she went on social media, she's calling Wiles a dear friend. What did you make of all of that rallying around her?

WHIPPLE: Yes, not a surprise at all to me. And in fact, I -- I -- I think that -- I've described her as the most powerful person in the White House other than Trump himself. I think that's true. They have a bond. He trusts her in a way that he never trusted any of her predecessors, Reince Priebus and the rest of the gang in the first term. And everybody knows it. So I think they -- they know that she has Trump's trust.

They know that when she opens her mouth, she speaks for Trump. It's a -- it's a fascinating relationship. She has a kind of magic with him. And as you noticed, it's not very often that the President goes out and confirms your reporting, but you'll notice that he said, yes, I do have an alcoholic's personality.

TAPPER: Yes. And J.D. Vance also said that he and she had talked about his being a conspiracy theorist. The photographer for the article, Christopher Anderson, he's receiving some criticism, especially from Trump allies and conservatives for some of the close-up photographs he took.

Anderson told the Independent newspaper about that criticism, "Very close-up portraiture' has been a fixture in a lot of my work over the years, particularly political portraits that I've done over the years. I like the idea of penetrating the theater of politics." What -- what's your take on this controversy and people at the White House feeling as though the photographs made them look bad?

WHIPPLE: Yes, I think the important thing to stress here, at least from my point of view, is that there were no surprises here. You know, they knew full well that Chris Anderson was going to be the photographer. And in fact, they even were shown his portfolio before he was assigned. So they -- they certainly could have objected. The White House could have.

And he's not a typical glamor photographer, as it were. This is a guy who's been in war zones. He's a -- he's a photojournalist. And so I think, you know, when you -- when you sit for portraits with a photographer for Vanity Fair, you take your chances.

TAPPER: Chris Whipple, thank you so much. And congratulations on all the attention that your -- your interview and your article has received.

WHIPPLE: Thanks so much. Appreciate it, Jake. [17:38:24]

TAPPER: A major admission just in about that deadly midair crash just outside Reagan National Airport. The new details, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Just in, the U.S. government is now admitting failures in the deadly January midair collision between the Army helicopter and the American Airlines flight near Reagan National Airport. It killed 67 people. CNN aviation correspondent Pete Muntean joins us with the breaking news. Pete, what is the Trump administration saying?

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is not totally case closed yet, Jake, because there's still a National Transportation Safety Board investigation going on, but this, however, is a big admission from the federal government in which it says that failures by the pilots of the Black Hawk helicopter and by a controller in the control tower at Reagan National Airport led to that midair collision disaster back on January 29th.

This is significant because not only does it mean a major concession from the federal government, but it also allows the families who brought this suit to seek damages from the federal government. This is a civil suit in U.S. District Court, and it is a really lengthy new filing here in which the federal government makes this admission.

In it, they say, "The United States admits pilots flying PAT25," that's the Black Hawk helicopter, "failed to maintain proper and safe visual separation from American Eagle Flight 5342." The suit goes on to say that the U.S. government also admits the air traffic controller in the tower at DCA, responsible for these helicopter flights and other traffic at the time, did not comply with air traffic control procedures that govern all air traffic control in the United States.

Families who brought this suit are now reacting to this. They say this starts the job, but they still have major complaints against American Airlines and PSA Airlines, which operated this flight for American.

TAPPER: All right, Pete Muntean. Thank you so much.

In our Politics Lead now, it has been two weeks since Democratic congressional candidate Aftyn Behn fell short in flipping Tennessee's Ruby Red Seventh Congressional District. She lost to Republican Matt Van Epps, now Congressman Van Epps, by nine points, but she did significantly cut into President Trump's 22-point margin in 2024, and that is fueling Democrats who hope they can expand the map, along with all sorts of other elections where Democrats have overperformed. So how strong is that Democratic energy? CNN's John King is getting a pulse in his latest edition of All Over the Map.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

[17:45:11]

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Local school board fights brought most of these women here. Now they're excited about 2026 midterm House races where Democrats normally wouldn't have a prayer.

MEGAN SCHWALM, TENNESSEE VOTER: When you're here, it's very clear you're in the Bible Belt. Beliefs are very different from beliefs in Nashville.

KING (voice-over): This is Mount Juliet, a Nashville suburb, in the Fifth Congressional District. There was a special election in the neighboring Seventh District. Democrat Aftyn Behn lost by nine points, but a year earlier, the Republican won by 22.

SCHWALM: I mean, the numbers are the numbers, and, you know, if we can keep closing that gap, that's incredible, but gerrymandering makes it nearly impossible to win.

KING (voice-over): There's chatter maybe a moderate would have run even stronger, but no one here sees it that way.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We've been running moderate. This doesn't work.

KING: The old Fifth Congressional District included all of Nashville and was reliably blue, represented by a Democrat from 1875 to 2023. That's 148 years. But Tennessee Republicans redrew the lines before the 2022 elections, carving Nashville into three congressional districts that stretch from the city out to the suburbs, well out into rural Tennessee, and they are reliably red. President Trump, for example, in 2024, carried the Fifth Congressional District by 18 points, the Sixth by 35, and here in the Seventh, where we are right now, by 22 points, despite getting trounced in Nashville.

KING (voice-over): Parnassus Books is in the Fifth District slice of Nashville. Lisa Quigley lives a few miles away in the Seventh District piece of the city. She was chief of staff to the last Democrat to represent Nashville when it was all one district. He was a centrist, and Quigley's experience tells her moderates have a better shot in the suburbs and the rural counties. But a surge of energy among progressives in the special election was eye-opening.

LISA QUIGLEY, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: And when they turned to see who our nominee was, it was somebody who was fighting, who was talking about affordability, who was very aggressive, and voters here like that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: And here now with us, CNN's John King, as well as CNN's Arlette Saenz. So, John, you're a numbers guy. Even if Democrats continue to overperform, is the math really there for Democrats in the reliably ruby-red districts in Tennessee?

KING: Maybe just barely in one of them, the Fifth. Democrats have been overperforming in 2025 by about 15 points, 13 to 15 points. That might be enough to put that one in play, but Democrats are pretty candid about this. Their answer would be, no, but we got some help. If they can keep their base energized and maximize turnout, Tennessee is terrible when it comes to voter participation.

But there was great turnout in the special election among Democrats. Then they need, "help from Republicans." What the President's doing tonight is part of that. We saw all throughout 2025, including in this special election, Republican turnout is down. What they are hoping for is the addition of Democratic energy and the subtraction of Republican disenchantment. It's a -- it's a long shot. It's like drawing to an inside straight flush, but they haven't been this excited in that area in a few years.

TAPPER: So it was Bob Dylan who said, I think, you don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. And you can look on Capitol Hill today, four House Republicans, two of them from districts, Kamala Harris won, one from a district that Trump only won by three points. They just bucked the Speaker of the House and pushed this legislation to extend the Obamacare subsidies. What does that say to you?

KING: It says, it gets back to the point I was just making, that I was talking to a very smart Republican strategist. Democrats are excited. Democrats want to fight. Trump's in office. Democrats are emboldened. And Republicans have, just about every Republican is mad about something. Maybe it's the Epstein files. Maybe it's Trump's handling of affordability. A lot of Christian conservatives appalled at the President's reaction to Rob Reiner and some other character questions. And so Republicans have a whole bunch of reasons that is deflating their base.

And Democrats right now are excited. They remember 2018 and they think they have a chance in the midterms. And so it's the combination of that, Democrat with a bounce and Republicans kind of, eh, at the moment right now, which is one of the reasons the President's trying to, you know, shake that again tonight.

But you mentioned the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. He went to those districts. J.D. Vance went to those districts. I've been to those districts. Those Republicans are in trouble unless they bend the steel.

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And Democrats really think that this issue of healthcare is going to help them with their affordability message. And that's why they have been driving this over and over for months. It was at the heart of their debate and their fight over the shutdown, saying that they needed to act to extend these subsidies. They want to make this issue number one for Republicans heading into the midterms next year.

TAPPER: So Republicans are really, the majority there is they're tearing at the seams, right? I mean, like Speaker Johnson had to say that he still has control of the House, which is not something normally a speaker has to say. You've been talking to House Republicans all day. Take a listen to Republican Congressman Eric Burlison.

He's from a reliably Republican district in Missouri. And he is mad at these four House Republicans who joined the Democrats to force a vote on the extensions of the Obamacare subsidies. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[17:50:12]

REP. ERIC BURLISON (R-MO): They're stabbing the rest of the party in the back. I think it's politically short-sighted. What we really need to do is a wholesale reform of the Obamacare system.

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TAPPER: I mean, the other argument is they're doing what they need to do to try to keep their seats in the House to keep the Republicans in the majority. What's it like at the House now?

SAENZ: Well, it's certainly, there is a lot of tension. It does seem like House Speaker Mike Johnson has lost a bit of control, at least as it relates to this healthcare issue. The House will be voting in -- in the coming hour on a much more limited proposal. But this issue of the ACA subsidies is something that many moderates, people in these centrist districts are really concerned about when they're thinking about their chances going forward.

Let's also not forget that Republicans have been trying to repeal or fix Obamacare for years now, and they haven't come up with a solution just yet. And that is something that's also frustrating for some within the Republican Party that they don't have anything to show for it just yet.

TAPPER: John, take a listen to Senator Eric Schmitt, Republican of Missouri.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. ERIC SCHMITT (R-MO): We've already voted on a plan that extends Obamacare failure. We're looking for reform. The Democrats had their chance. They destroyed healthcare with Obamacare. They've made everything more expensive.

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TAPPER: So this is their argument. Do you think it will work?

KING: Well, nevermind what the Democrats say. Nevermind what I'm about to say. What about his own Missouri colleague, Josh Hawley, who's a more populist conservative, who says that half the people in the state are going to see their healthcare premiums, or thousands of people in the state are going to see their healthcare premiums double, if not triple, and the Republicans need to do something about it.

Arlette is right, this is more an issue in the House, where they're at risk of losing the majority if the election were tomorrow, they would lose the majority. And, you know, it's a good quote from Senator Schmitt. The Democrats had their chance. Well, remember Donald Trump came to office in 2017, said repeal and replace. He had a majority for two years. They did zip. Donald Trump has been president for 11 months now with a Republican majority, and they have done zip on this question they say is definitional to them, repeal and replace, but they cannot come to an, Republicans can simply not come to an agreement.

TAPPER: Yes, and it's important for voters out there to understand the Senate is not particularly competitive next year. Like, Republicans in all likelihood will keep the Senate, so they're -- they can have those comments because they don't have to worry that much, really, about losing more than two or three seats.

KING: But they have the populist divide just like they do in the House. Hawley and Schmitt, same state.

TAPPER: Interesting. Thank you so much to both of you.

A big move in the Pop Culture Lead. The Oscars is going to move from ABC Television Network to YouTube. The show's going to go on to YouTube. The show is going to go on. It's going to broadcast in March 2026, but a few years after that, in 2029, the Academy says that YouTube signed a multi-year deal from 2029 through 2033. So who's going to host the Oscars? We're back in a moment.

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[17:57:06]

TAPPER: In our World Lead today, Australian police charged the surviving suspect of the two in Sunday's Bondi Beach massacre with 15 counts of murder, 40 counts of attempted murder, and other charges, including committing a terrorist act. This is three victims of the anti-Semitic attack will be laid to rest today.

CNN's Lynda Kinkade profiles now what we're learning about the victims. A warning, you might find the content of this report difficult to watch.

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LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): It was meant to be a celebration, but joy quickly turned to panic. Pain and then unbearable grief. Destroying families, fracturing communities, young and old now gone.

Matilda was the youngest of the victims, just 10 years old. Her aunt describing her as a sweet, happy child with a beautiful smile. Rushed to a nearby hospital, she could not be saved.

Alexander Kleytman was the oldest of Sunday's victims. The 87-year-old survived the Holocaust and his wife, Larisa, pictured next to him, says he died shielding her from the bullets. Among those killed, two rabbis, 39-year-old Yaakov Levitan, a husband, father, and beloved member of Sydney's Jewish community, and London-born Eli Schlanger, who organized the gathering on Sunday.

RABBI DAVID LEWIS, COUSIN OF VICTIM RABBI ELI SCHLANGER: The way we hold up in times as difficult as this is by keeping dear of the message that Eli, Rabbi Schlanger, held so dear to him, which is to spread the light of Judaism, to share it.

KINKADE (voice-over): Few encapsulated that spirit like Tibor Weitzen, the 78-year-old known as the Candyman, brought joy and smiles handing out treats to those in his congregation. His family say their sweet grandpa died trying to shield a friend.

Another victim now identified, Boris Tetleroyd, described by his niece as a beloved husband and father. He was killed. His son who was with him, was wounded and remains in hospital. Retired detective Peter Meagher was also among those killed. Mazo, as he was known, served almost 40 years in the line of duty. He was working as a freelance photographer covering the Hanukkah celebration. His rugby club in Randwick called him an absolute legend. Schlanger's brother Eli, one of several victims born overseas.

Twenty-seven-year-old Dan Elkayam hailed from Paris, France. Eighty- two-year-old Marika Pogany from Slovakia, 62-year-old Reuven Morrison moved to Australia fleeing persecution from the Soviet Union and Russian couple Boris and Sofia Gurman. Sixty-one-year-old Sofia and her husband, 69-year-old Boris, were caught on dash cam footage trying to stop one of the gunmen. They were married for 34 years and were killed together in the confrontation. Their family said they died as they lived, bravely putting others before themselves.

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[18:00:14]

KINKADE: And Jake, we heard a tearful message from the parents of Matilda, the youngest victim of the Bondi massacre. Her dad describing the moment she was shot, how he wrapped his shirt around her as she was telling him, it's hot, hard to breathe. In the coming hours, she'll be laid to rest. Jake?

TAPPER: All right. Lynda Kinkade, thank you for that report.