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The Lead with Jake Tapper
Increased Security Ahead Of New Year's Eve Celebrations; NYC Steps Up Security For Times Square Ball Drop; Snow Could Mix With Confetti At Midnight In New York City's Time Square Celebration. Aired 5-6p ET
Aired December 30, 2025 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: Thanks so much to my panel and best holidays and happy New Year to all of you and all of you for joining us. Phil Mattingly standing by for the lead. I'm going to leave you in Phil's good hands.
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Jim. We'll look for more next time in the arena. Get the black eyed peas ready. 2026 is coming in hot. The Lead starts right now.
The countdown to January 1st is officially on. But one year after a deadly attack, what authorities will be watching for as crowds gather to ring in the new year. Plus, the iconic Jim Beam Bourbon brand stopping production at one of its distilleries. I'll speak with a Kentucky congressman who says Trump's tariffs are to blame.
And the bold request, as the man accused of planting pipe bombs in D.C. appeared in court, what the suspect's grandmother asked a judge and the decision that's now pending.
Welcome to Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. We start in our national lead, security across the nation on high alert as Americans get ready to ring in the New year tomorrow in New Orleans. Right now, a National Guard deployment authorized by President Trump is part of a heavy security presence for this year's New Year celebrations. This in response to the terror attack on Bourbon Street last January 1st.
Fourteen people were killed when a man inspired by ISIS drove a truck down Bourbon Street. The National Guard is expected to be confined to the popular French Quarter. And in total, more than 800 local, state and federal law enforcement officials will be deployed in New Orleans to close off Bourbon Street to traffic, patrol the area, conduct bag searches and much more.
Meanwhile, ahead of New York City's celebration in Times Square, officials say they'll have plainclothes officers, K9 teams, officers on horseback, officers in subway stations and in helicopters and on boats. We start things off with CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller. John, for -- people at home thinking about going out, what are police
and federal officials looking at in the threat stream as they design and update protection for these events?
JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Well, they're looking at what they're seeing from an intelligence standpoint in the threat stream, but they're also looking at these past events you just referenced, which go to show that New Year's celebrations that are televised and watched by millions and attended by thousands or hundreds of thousands do have an attractive profile as a Target. We got to look at an intelligence bulletin sent out by the NYPD today. They sum it up this way. "Recent and prior high-profile acts of mass casualty terrorism and targeted violence, especially when exploited by foreign terrorist organizations in propaganda, may resonate with U.S.- based homegrown violent extremists throughout the holidays and could mobilize some to action, using similar tactics, necessitating elevated vigilance." What that says, in short, is expect a lot of security.
MATTINGLY: What kinds of attacks are officials most worried about?
MILLER: So they're looking at what they've seen in the past and what they believe they're going to see in the future, based on what we're seeing developed on the battlefields around the world, but obviously targeted shooting. Think back to the Washington, the Las Vegas sniper attack several years ago. Vehicle ramming just last year in New Orleans, multiple killed, as you mentioned. UAVs or drone attacks. That's something where we've seen the weaponizing of UAVs developed on the battlefields, and that's something terrorists have been watching and adopting or adapting too quickly.
And of course, cyberattacks, which we think of as nonviolent, but we're beginning to understand massive cyberattacks against critical systems in high crowd events can lead to its own kind of mayhem.
MATTINGLY: You know more about the space than pretty much anybody I've ever spoken to. Is it your sense that officials are more concerned this year than in the past?
MILLER: Phil, I think you've got a combination of things that are worrying them. Number one, you've seen the attacks this year. Whether it was the Charlie Kirk assassination or the assassinations of politicians in Minneapolis, or whether it was the recent attack at Brown University. We are seeing the 345 Park Avenue attack in New York City, the Boulder, Colorado firebombing attack during the march by those protesting Israeli hostages. It's been a drumbeat of targeted violence, mostly inspired by lone wolf actors reacting to propaganda, much of it by ISIS, but also other groups that has been on the increase.
So when I say it has them worried, what I really mean, Phil, is it has them planning. When you look at the New York event or the -- the way they've redeveloped the security for the New Orleans event, the Las Vegas event, they've really kind of looked at every kind of possibility, and not just to worry about it, but to have those countermeasures in place.
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MATTINGLY: New York City, obviously, huge event televised around the world. You have a better sense of this than pretty much anybody. Take people behind the scenes. How does the new -- NYPD pull out all the stops here?
MILLER: So it's a really interesting question because, you know, when we show the pictures you've been showing of people coming up, it looks like they're going to the airport, right? They're being wandered. They're being that all happens at the checkpoint. Here's the thing about security in Times Square on New Year's Eve.
This is layer upon layer upon layer. Before the people ever get to the place that you're looking at right now, they've already been passed by vapor wake dogs who can smell explosives being carried in a backpack or a bag from hundreds of feet away. They've already passed behaviorally trained investigators and plainclothes people who are looking at how people are looking at the security. And when they get through the checkpoint and they pass all that on the interior, there are teams called hostile surveillance teams that are looking for hostile surveillance, plainclothes cops in the crowds.
You've got sniffers for radiological devices. You've got sensors for biological attacks. You've got teams scanning the cyberspace looking for any anomalies or attacks. And as you said, you've got them on boats in the river. You've got them in helicopters in the sky. And you have quick response teams with every kind of tool and specialized talent laying in wait several blocks outside the perimeter in case they have to move in or move out to another location.
MATTINGLY: John Miller, always learn something when we talk, my friend. Thanks so much.
MILLER: Thanks, Phil.
MATTINGLY: Well, there's also the threat of bad weather that could dampen the mood of some celebrations. Let's turn to CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam for the New Year's Eve forecast. Derek, what do we got?
DEREK VAN DAM, METEOROLOGIST: Phil, time to break out your drink of choice. We need to bring in the new year in style, and we'll be doing that with our coverage with Anderson and Andy from Times Square in New York City. For everybody attending the ball drop, I think the weather is going to play along, but honestly, the best advice I can give to you with these cold temperatures in the forecast is maybe bundle up inside with your drink of choice and watch it from the comfort of your home because it will be chilly. And there's a bit of a caveat to this forecast.
Latest computer models actually depicting some snow moving in across the Tri State region come midnight. So maybe we'll mix in some snowflakes with the confetti that's being dropped across Times Square. That'll certainly make for a beautiful New Year's Day as the system exits the region really into the early morning hours of Thursday. But what about the rest of the country? So many other festivities going on and it's going to be interesting in
places like Minneapolis as well as Chicago. The wind chill factor could below zero in many instances across the upper Midwest. And we're also monitoring the potential of a very wet New Year's Day across Southern California. Just what they need after the very rainy Christmas week that we had across the state. Snowfall into the Sierra Nevada mountain range. But let's focus in around the Los Angeles area where of course we have the Tournament of Roses parade and it looks to be wet.
This could be the first time we've had a rainy parade festivity since 2006. So that's really saying something. The forecast stays very wet through New Year's Day as the system comes ashore. Let's maybe enjoy from the comfort of our home with all of our special coverage here on CNN, right Phil?
MATTINGLY: Yes, that's exactly right. Also, the Ohio State Buckeyes play. That's what I'll be focused on. Derek Van Damme, always a pleasure my friend. Thanks so much.
Of course, on Thursday, New Year's Day, as Derek just mentioned, CNN will have live coverage of the 137th annual Rose Parade in Pasadena, California. CNN's Elex Michaelson has a look at how organizers are prepping for what might be a rather soggy parade. Thank you.
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ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): It's delivery day for some of the 18 million flowers featured in this year's Tournament of Roses parade. Hundreds of volunteers from multiple generations hard at work on the city of South Pasadena's float, including 38-year-old Marissa Plescia.
MARISA PLESCIA, FLOAT VOLUNTEER: Some of my best memories are honestly volunteering here with my dad throughout my entire childhood.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): Marissa started volunteering here as an 11- year-old alongside her dad, Santo. Santo passed away in 2018. Yet Marissa returns year after year to honor his memory.
PLESCIA: It means so much to me.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): The city of South Pasadena first joined the parade in 1911. They have the oldest self-made volunteer built float. Ed Donnelly is this year's president.
ED DONNELLY, PRESIDENT, SOUTH PASADENA TOURNAMENT OF ROSES: So this is really a way for us to build community. Welcome to the crime scene.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): Ants are stealing the food of a sleeping bear.
DONNELLY: The theme for the parade is The Magic of Teamwork. So we're looking at our team of ants who are going to be well fed tonight.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): Ed says it's a 14-month process to make this vision come to life. Every inch of flow required to be covered with natural materials. And that can be painstaking. For instance, each of these ants takes 70 hours to cover in black beans.
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MICHAELSON: So this right here is where the driver sits. His head would be covered by a cupcake. On parade route drives about five to seven miles per hour. And right here is the steering wheel. They actually use the same vehicle every year to save money.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): It costs about $150,000 every year for South Pasadena's entry. It's one of 38 floats in the parade along with 17 equestrian teams and 19 marching bands, drawing an estimated 50 million TV and digital viewers around the world.
MICHAELSON: So this is the headquarters tournament house, right?
CANDY CARLSON, COMMUNICATION DIRECTOR, TOURNAMENT OF ROSES: Yes, Tournament house.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): Candy Carlson is our tour guide. The tournament's Pasadena headquarters, which is packed with history.
MICHAELSON: How did this parade start?
CARLSON: It was all people who lived on the west coast and they wanted to show their friends how beautiful it was in California and that our flowers bloomed year-round.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): The first parade back in 1890 featured horse drawn carriages covered in roses.
MICHAELSON: These are the tiaras over the years, right?
CARLSON: Yes.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): For over 100 years it's featured a royal court of local young women.
MICHAELSON: They call the Rose bowl the granddaddy of them all because it's the original bowl game, right?
CARLSON: It is.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): They also host the Rose bowl game, the first ever college football post season bowl game in the country. That game's hall of fame, housed here. Celebrity grand marshals attend the parade and the game.
MICHAELSON: Every grand marshal in Rose Parade history, right?
CARLSON: Yes.
MICHAELSON (voiceover): From Shirley Temple to Frank Sinatra to sitting president Gerald Ford. This year's grand marshal is basketball legend Magic Johnson. Fitting for this year's theme, The Magic of Teamwork. The parade attended by nearly a million spectators every year. For
Marisa reconnecting with her inner child and her late father is the magic that keeps her coming back. And you think of him when you do this?
PLESCIA: Oh, 100 percent.
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MICHAELSON: And we're thinking of him as well. We're out here live right now where everything is coming up roses and the last-minute work is being done on this float. They're working in 24-hour shifts at this point. Tomorrow morning, they will get their official judging and then of course, the parade goes forward the next morning, rain or shine regardless, the parade is moving forward, as is CNN's coverage.
For the first time ever, CNN is covering this parade. It's going to be New Year's Day. 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. on the West coast and 11:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. on the East Coast. And I'm so honored, Phil, along with Coy Wire to be one of your hosts this year.
MATTINGLY: I can't wait to watch. It was a great piece. Only makes people want to, even if it is raining, stand side. Watch Coy. Watch Elex. Elex Michaelson, thank you so much. Appreciate it.
And you of course can catch it all here on CNN, New Year's Eve countdowns from around the world all day tomorrow. Then the main event with Anderson and Andy. You may have heard of them. Live from New York tomorrow night at 8:00 Eastern.
And then Thursday, New Year's Day at 11:00 a.m. Catch that iconic Rose Parade presented by Honda. That's all here on CNN. And on the new CNN app.
Well later hear on the lead what's likely to be the first major political event of 2026. But first, new video today from the Department of Homeland Security and what it calls a massive operation defined fraud in Minnesota. CNN is also live there. We'll show you what's going on.
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MATTINGLY: In our Law and Justice Lead, a viral video claiming widespread fraud in Somali run childcare centers in Minnesota is drawing a major response from Trump administration. Today, the Department of Homeland Security put out another video on social media showing investigators in Minneapolis inspecting what they say are suspected fraud sites. CNN's Whitney Wild is in Minneapolis.
Whitney, how are state officials responding to the fraud allegations?
WHITNEY WILD, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT CORRESPONDENT: Well, the, you know, one agency that oversees daycares is saying, look, they are questioning the tactics used in the Nick Shirley video but at the same time they take allegations of fraud very seriously. Fraud has been an issue here in Minnesota for many years. It goes back a decade where there were some fraud cases involving daycares.
In the last few years, federal law enforcement has indicted 80 people or more, Phil, for various fraud schemes. Covid fraud schemes, Medicaid related fraud schemes. The list of different fraud schemes that federal officials say that they have been all over for years is quite lengthy.
So now House Republicans here in Minnesota are saying, look, yes, there is movement from federal law enforcement but at the same time they want to see accountability at the political level. And they told me, I spoke with House Speaker Lisa Daymouth today. She's a Republican, she's running for governor. She said, look, the buck stops with Governor Walz. He has not done enough to hold people accountable. She said basically that her feeling was that there was a culture here of no accountability. She said Walz has not fired anybody in government that would have been responsible for overseeing these frauds.
House Republicans saying that again, the responsibility here to root out fraud rests squarely on the shoulders of Governor Tim Walz.
Governor Tim Walz is responding. He here's what he said on X today. "We've spent years cracking down on fraud, referring cases to law enforcement shutting down and auditing high risk programs. Trump keeps letting fraudsters out of prison to the national news just now paying attention. Here's what we've done to stop it."
I think, Phil, it's worth noting, I think there's this idea that mainstream media hasn't covered these fraud cases. CNN did a story on problems with fraud in October of 2024. I mentioned it in a story earlier this month. Local reporters have done sprawling, award winning, many part series on the fraud problem that has plagued Minnesota. It is a problem that Governor Tim Walz cannot shake. And it is coming up again, because Nick Shirley, this YouTuber, has now caught the attention of Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. Vance, Phil.
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MATTINGLY: to that point, Whitney, the ability to have this video, this issue blow up on not just a federal level, but also, I think just, I mean, hundreds of millions of views, something like that. Explain to people who is actually behind this.
WILD: So Nick Shirley is a YouTuber. He, you know, has,you can go and look at his YouTube for yourself. I mean, there are a lot of different types of videos there. We did speak with him today because Phil, he actually came back to one of the daycares. We were out here shooting video trying to figure out what's really going on with one of the daycares that he visited at the time in the video. You know, he's going door to daycares and showing that, you know, the doors are locked, the windows are blacked out, can't get inside.
He came back to one of these daycares today where we saw children being dropped off. And I spoke with him about these allegations. How does he know that this is all correct? Here's what he said.
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WILD: How do you know that you're right? How do you know that all the allegations that you're making are true?
NICK SHIRLEY, YOUTUBE CONTENT CREATOR: How do I know that they're true? Well, we showed you guys the, we showed you guys what was happening and then you guys can go ahead and make your own now.
WILD: We're coming -- so we can make our own analysis. Are you 100 percent sure you're true?
SHIRLEY: Yes, I am 100 percent. Sure, I'm true.
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WILD: Phil, when I was talking to Nick earlier today, right outside this daycare steps away from me, I said, you know, you're saying that this daycare is, you know, committing a fraud. We're seeing kids being dropped off.
I just want to point out to our viewers we have not independently verified any of the Shirley claims. It's a 42-minute video. We are doing our best to learn more about where the information he got came from, what it says, and do our own vetting of it. But Phil, you know, I think the big moment of the day was Nick Shirley coming right back to this daycare where he was confronted by several people, one of whom was a business owner who shares a building with one of these daycares. Phil.
MATTINGLY: Phil, Whitney Wild on the ground for us with the latest from Minneapolis, Minnesota. Thanks so much.
Also, in our law justice lead a dramatic day in D.C. district Court just hours ago. The grandmother for the man accused of placing two pipe bombs in D.C. the night before January 6th took the stand to ask the judge for his release. CNN's Evan Perez is here, has been following the story.
Evan, what did the judge make of the request?
EVAN PEREZ, CNN SENIOR JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the grandmother was saying that, look, there is no danger to the community if you have my grandson, Brian Cole, come back to my house. She lives in a gated community. There's cameras everywhere.
The defense has argued that they could have ankle monitor, they could have visits from pretrial services. They could have monitoring situation whereby he could be safely, you know, taken care of by his family members. And that way he is not being held in detention while he awaits trial.
The government has argued that these were very dangerous. These pipe bombs were very dangerous. They were placed outside the RNC and DNC buildings, if you remember, back on January 5th of 2021, the day before the riot at the Capitol. And, and they were discovered just right about the time when the crowd was starting to break in through the police cordons. And so that's what made these things so dangerous.
There was people around that could have been harmed had they gone off. The government argues that in his confession that he spent hours Talking to the FBI, he described making these bombs, learning from YouTube videos, from watching video games about how to put together these devices and that he does not -- this is not somebody who should be out in the community given the seriousness of this crime.
What is interesting about this case is, you know, the fact that given the fact that the president has pardoned everyone associated with January 6th, that Brian Cole is probably the only person that this administration is trying to hold accountable for any of the events that surrounded January 6th. It is the irony that because he wasn't caught or it wasn't apprehended until last month, that this is, he is now the only person who this administration is trying to hold accountable for those things.
MATTINGLY: Do we have any sense? When is the judge going to weigh in?
PEREZ: The judge says that he knows that he needs to make a decision soon. We expect it in the next couple of days.
MATTINGLY: All right. Even Perez. Ironic indeed. Thank you my friend.
PEREZ: Ironic.
MATTINGLY: All right. CNN was the first to report the CIA's drone strike on Venezuela, the first known strike inside the country. But why is the CIA carrying out this kind of mission, not the military? And did the president need authorization from Congress?
First, we'll get an expert opinion, next.
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MATTINGLY: In our World lead a story first reported by CNN sources familiar with the matter telling us that the CIA carried out a drone strike earlier this month on a port facility on the coast of Venezuela. The U.S. launched strikes, destroying more than 30 boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean and what is described as a counter narcotics -- narcotics campaign, including the latest strike just yesterday.
But significantly, the attack on the port facility is the first known U.S. Attack on a target inside Venezuela. Here to discuss the implications of the attack and much more is Sean McFate. He's the author of the book the New Rules of War.
Sean, really appreciate your time. Just to start with, for people who are maybe holidays tuning in, the fact this happened inside Venezuela and that it was the CIA that conducted the strike, why is it significant? SEAN MCFATE, AUTHOR, "THE NEW RULES OF WAR: This is the first time it
well, it represents an escalation on our pressure or the U.S. Pressure campaign in Venezuela from since September, the U.S. has been basically swatting drug fast boats and submersibles at sea.
This is the first time we've actually hit anything on Venezuelan land and it hit this sort of drug port, if you will, just south of Aruba and nobody was killed. But it sends a very clear diplomatic signal to President Maduro that we're getting serious now. You should get serious, too.
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MATTINGLY: U.S. Officials said that the target was the Swords and Shipping facility and was used by Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan gang. What is Tren de Aragua?
MCFATE: TRA as it's called is one of the cartels. There's two main cartels in Venezuela, which is a narco state. There's TRA and there's Cartel of the Suns and they kind of run the place. In fact Cartel of the Suns has this pact with President Maduro. They are his like coup proofing machine and they have this mutual suicide pack. And there were his inner circle layers of defense should the United States invade.
MATTINGLY: And that has been kind of the justification for or at least the legal justification underpinning a lot of what we've seen has been that it is a narco state.
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: And Cartel of the Sun is --
MCFATE: That's right. Cartel of the Suns here, exactly.
MATTINGLY: I want to switch if you don't mind I want to globetrot with you a little bit --
MCFATE: OK.
MATTINGLY: -- on expertise and we're going to tap into it a little bit. Iran back the news for a couple of reasons. Its government said today it would seek a dialogue with protest leaders after demonstrations in Tehran and other cities of research and inflation. Do you think this poses a danger to the government you think?
MCFATE: I think Tehran as we all know, it's a theocratic autocracy. And like a lot of autocracies as I say in I still live in Africa. It's to say in Africa when the elephants fight the grass gets trampled. And I ran the grasses being trampled. And who is fighting? It's Tehran versus the rest of the folks in the region and the U.S. And they have been hit by inflation. They've been hit by all sorts of economic sanctions, all because Israel -- is all because Iran doesn't want to give up its nuclear weapons program.
And so this is always a threat to Tehran. But Tehran usually the squeezes down like autocracies and pressures them away and that's probably what's going to happen again. But the other problem is, is that Iran is also declared war basically on Israel and others as we speak. And we'll see where that goes. It's some tough frightening talk from a volatile region.
MATTINGLY: Yes. And we saw President Trump's response standing right next to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday.
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: The threat of additional U.S. attacks, the green light for Israel to attack --
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: -- if they see ballistic missiles coming back in or at least the capability to bring them back in. The Chinese drills surrounding Taiwan or around Taiwan right now.
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: President Trump kind of dismissed them.
MCFATE: He did.
MATTINGLY: A lot of people are looking around saying this is pretty ominous time.
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: Given the calendar.
MCFATE: Yes.
MATTINGLY: And what Xi Jinping may be looking at. How do you view them?
MCFATE: So the what sparked this is in mid-December the United States agreed to an $11 billion sales deal to Taiwan for weapons, weapons that we see being used in Ukraine to defeat Russia HIMARS missiles, things like javelin stuff like that. And China didn't like that at all. I'm not surprised. So this in the last 48 hours, they've had one of the biggest live-fire exercises with missiles to practice up total blockade of Taiwan including its two deepwater ports.
And it's meant to intimidate Taiwan to send a message to the whole region, to United States that if we want to take Taiwan, we can do it. And most importantly it's a message to China's domestic audience. And I think why President Trump correctly downplays it is because this looks -- we've all seen this play before, it's like when Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan and they had the same thing.
What happened what -- after she left Beijing went berserk and did another sort of thing. But what drove that in part was all the domestic sort of China's internal tweets demanding like blood. And this is what happens when you have state-controlled media who whips the population a little too much into nationalistic frenzies. They can have what we call famously the CNN effect where our policymakers have to respond to outrage that constituents or others have in order to sort of maintain stability. So in some ways what we're seeing today, it looks serious but it's a CNN effect.
MATTINGLY: Yes, that's I mean good network.
MCFATE: Yes. I've heard it.
MATTINGLY: Appreciate your time. Thank you.
MCFATE: Thanks Phil.
MATTINGLY: Once again, his book is called "New Rules of War." It's an excellent book. Definitely go check it out.
[17:34:48]
Next on The Lead, I'll speak with the Kentucky congressman who says President Trump's tariffs are to blame for the financial hit on popular Jim Beam bourbon. We'll ask him, next.
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MATTINGLY: Our Money Lead goes way beyond dry January. The beginning of 2026 also means the start of a year-long work stoppage at Jim Beam's flagship bourbon distillery in Claremont, Kentucky. The company announced last week the pause is to make, "enhancements to the distillery," but emphasized the visitor center will remain open. It also comes in the wake of an October report that shows exports of U.S. distilled spirits were down by 9 percent in the second quarter of the year, including a huge 85 percent drop in exports to Canada, all attributed to trade tensions caused by President Trump's tariffs.
We're joined by Democratic Congressman Morgan McGarvey of Kentucky. Congressman, really appreciate your time. When Jim Beam made the announcement last week, you blamed President Trump's tariffs. Why?
REP. MORGAN MCGARVEY (D-KY): Yes. Because we don't need some think tank to tell us what this means in Kentucky. We saw when Trump was president the first time what happened. He put tariffs all over the world, including on allies. No strategy, no thought behind it. And, of course, they retaliated. What was hit? Something that's uniquely American, and that's bourbon.
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We knew this was going to happen. And, of course, we were telling people this is what's going to happen if he does this. Then it happened. He put these tariffs on. He put them on our allies. He slapped them everywhere with no thought, no strategy. They retaliated. And like you just said, I mean, bourbon sales were down 85 percent in Canada from last year in the last quarter. That is something that's crippling to the signature industry in our state.
MATTINGLY: The company has two other distilleries. A union representative told "The AP" the affected workers were going to be reassigned, not laid off. When you talk to company officials or when you talk to folks in the industry, are they telling you something behind the scenes that this is tariff related?
MCGARVEY: Look, I mean, the bourbon industry is one. You know, in Kentucky, you know somebody who works in the bourbon industry if you live there. And so this is something that impacts all of us. I've talked to people in the industry. I've talked to people who work there. I can tell you that these are good union jobs, and the company really is doing everything it can to keep all of its full-time employees there.
And I stress the full-time employees, right? There are other people who work in the bourbon industry, and we're worried about those jobs as well. But the full-time employees, they're going to stay. But I mean, this is hurting. This is causing anxiety, especially now around the holidays. People are going, OK, what's going to happen? Am I going to have my job in January? Am I going to have my job in February or March? What are Trump's trade policies going to continue to do this industry?
And again, it impacts everybody, whether you're growing corn in Kentucky that goes into bourbon, whether you're putting bourbon in the barrels, whether you're driving it to the stores. This is something that impacts everybody in my state.
MATTINGLY: We're waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on the legality of the tariffs. You can talk to Republicans and Democrats, Republicans probably less so on the record, about their frustration or concerns, a lot of the concerns you've heard as well. Do you think there's a role for Congress if the Supreme Court overturns these tariffs in some kind of solution?
MCGARVEY: Yes, Congress should play a role in this. And this has been a bipartisan statement. I mean, you see even the senators from my state talking about this in Congress's role in trade. I mean, look, let's just talk about tariffs broadly. Tariffs are neither good nor bad. Tariffs are a tool. A hammer is neither good nor bad.
It's great for fixing your house. It's not so great for fixing your iPhone. How you use a tool matters. And Congress should have a say in how we use these really important tools of trade because of the impact, not just that they have on the American economy and American worker. When we take this down to the level, this is paychecks in people's pockets. This is what is putting food on the table.
When people are looking at these trade policies and how they're shutting down an industry like the bourbon industry, what industry is next? And what are we doing to make sure that people feel safe and secure?
MATTINGLY: Yes, important point of clarity. The two Republican senators from Kentucky are very on the record about their concerns about tariffs. Kentucky Congressman Morgan McGarvey, really appreciate your time, sir. Thanks so much.
MCGARVEY: Thanks so much. Happy New Year.
MATTINGLY: Likewise.
Well, my next guest told us what they think are the biggest political headlines in 2025 that could dominate 2026. We'll see what's on their list, next.
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MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, Trump's return to power. The longest government shutdown on record. And a string of electoral victories by Democrats. Those are just some of the big 2025 political headlines. So, what exactly can we expect in the new year? Here in studio, political experts who will tell us all the answers. No hedging and guaranteed accuracy.
KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes.
MATTINGLY: Starting with you, Karen.
FINNEY: All right, how may I help you?
MATTINGLY: You say the Epstein Files is one of the biggest political events of the year.
FINNEY: Yes.
MATTINGLY: And you say it's not going away in 2026. Why?
FINNEY: The survivors themselves have made it clear they are not going anywhere. And I believe them. And they are looking for avenues to continue to tell their stories. And they've said they were going to get together and create their own list. A client list, if you will. Now, Marjorie Taylor Greene has an interesting opportunity on the 5th of January when she resigns.
She had said at the press conference in September that she would read a list of names if they got her one. So, I would argue if she has said list and reads it on the floor of the United States House, that would be quite a blockbuster.
JONAH GOLDBERG, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think the story doesn't go away, but for a slightly different reason. Not to say your reason is wrong, but that it's non-falsifiable at this point. It's like there's never going to be enough information that satisfies the people who are demanding answers. The lack of any new information is proof that the conspiracy goes even deeper for these people.
And it's just going to have a half-life. And now that Dan Bongino is going back to the podcasting universe, he can finally get to the truth now that he's left the FBI.
MATTINGLY: I feel your excitement. It's palpable coming out of you.
GOLDBERG: Yes.
MATTINGLY: What do you think? Do you think it has an effect on the midterms?
BRYAN LANZA, SR. ADVISER, TRUMP 2024 CAMPAIGN: I think the economy always has the effect on midterms. As for this, I don't think it has much play in it. I mean, the victims will have a time to speak out, to do all these things. I think the view that it was going to harm Trump in any particular way is just not there at this point anymore. But I do think it just lingers in the conspiracy mind.
And then the fact that you have Don, you know, getting out there, I'm sure he'll do, you know, his best to feed it. But I just don't see where it moves the needles with voters on it, at least Republican voters.
FINNEY: Although, remember, Bongino had a comment where he talked about how at the FBI he had to tell the truth, not when he had his show.
MATTINGLY: Yes, he was getting paid to tell the truth.
FINNEY: Right, exactly.
LANZA: Now he's getting paid to do more conspiracy theories.
FINNEY: Exactly.
MATTINGLY: Jonah, when you look back at DOGE, all the federal layoffs, economic uncertainty from the tariffs, Justice Department targeting the President's rivals, which of any of these really kind of stand out to you?
GOLDBERG: Yes, so I kind of put them all in one big Uber category. And then you can talk about breaking them down in importance, which is that I think Trump took his eye off the ball about what got him elected. Put immigration aside. I think immigration definitely is one of his issues. And he's had much more success with it than I would have predicted.
But the people -- the reason he won those seven swing states that everyone constantly talks about, those voters were not all in on the MAGA agenda. They were nostalgic for the economy of 2019, the pre- COVID economy. And they were basically affordability voters for the most part.
[17:50:09]
And Trump then began to talk about, you know, retribution and doing all that kind of stuff and thinking that basically anyone who voted for him was all in on the MAGA agenda. And now we've seen independence. A lot of Hispanic voters swing wildly back to Democrats, which is why Democrats did so well in the off-year elections. And those are portentous about the midterms.
MATTINGLY: Is there concern, Bryan, do you think inside the White House, about the ability to get those voters back?
LANZA: Listen, I think they realize they have a challenge in front of them. You have six months really, you know, voters. Polling has shown throughout the years that voters make up their decision about the economy in June to July of an election year. That's six months away. And they have an uphill battle.
I mean, the one big beautiful bill where President Trump accomplished most of his policy goals during the campaign just hasn't been sold in the right way. They feel it hasn't been sold in the right way. They feel next year when some of those tax returns come back, when there's more money in the pockets of these individuals, that may have the impact that they're looking for.
But it's a tight window. Six months is a tight window, sort of change the view of consumers at this point.
FINNEY: But I think we have to remember that those voters that you all are talking about also have said, maybe I agree with what he was trying to do, but I don't like the way he's doing it. And that is not going to change. So if that kind of continues for people and if the economy, I agree the economy is going to be the biggest issue, they're not feeling the benefit. Because let's be honest, the pre-COVID economy is not coming back. Our economy doesn't work the same way anymore. And nobody seems to want to --
LANZA: You had a pretty substantial growth quarter just now.
FINNEY: But not in the same ways that we did pre-COVID. Anyway, point being, I do think you're going to see, the question is going to be, will independents and moderate Republicans, how many will be willing to flip? And will there be a point where Republicans actually feel the rub? I think they're already feeling this on the health care issues between their constituents and what Trump wants them to do. And we're seeing that on these health care subsidy questions, where you have states and districts where they have constituents who are saying, I can't afford my health care, but they're being told, don't vote to extend the subsidy. So how is that going to play, I think?
MATTINGLY: Jonah, you made an interesting point, where you mentioned immigration, and it was just kind of like, immigration, yes, no, he did all that. Messaging on immigration, you don't hear about it much. I know it frustrates the White House. It says, look, we did all the things. And doing all the things means people don't really notice it as much anymore. Is that a problem?
LANZA: Listen, I think the messaging on immigration is always a challenge. I come from California, where there was a popular ballot initiative, the sort of cut service to illegal aliens, and Republicans supported it, Pete Wilson supported it. It had decimated the Republican Party in California for two decades. So messaging matters.
And I think the advantage that the Democrats had back then was they were able to convince the electorate that the Republicans were also going after U.S. citizens, U.S.-Mexican Americans. That's the problem they have now, is that messaging is now getting blurred, and it's no longer a target of illegal immigration. It's now a target of legal residents, of legal aliens, you know, of citizens who are probably going to get that target, and that will have a long-term negative effect on the party.
FINNEY: So I was in college in California when that happened, and it wasn't just a messaging. It actually happened, and guess what? Not just a messaging issue here. It's happening here in the United States, and that has been one of the main issues where people have said, when they're seeing their neighbors or they're hearing about children being left at playgrounds because the nannies were taken in an ice sweep, that is not what people voted for.
So it's more than a messaging. They actually have to, like, where are the hardened criminals that they told us they were going to get? Are drugs off our streets? Are guns mysteriously gone? No, some of those issues are still the problem. And even right here in D.C., God bless the National Guard, but they're not in the worst crime areas fighting crime.
LANZA: I would say part of the problem is, is deporting these illegal aliens that are committing crimes is difficult. Trump has shown that the courts have made it extremely difficult. We have a resident out of Maryland who's an illegal alien who's trafficked people, and the courts are defending him, allowing him to stay.
FINNEY: Well, but that's -- there's a whole breaking news on that.
LANZA: That's the problem that Trump's going to have to deal with.
GOLDBERG: The problem is that it's partly a messaging thing, partly a policy thing. The visible immigrants that are going for are people who are showing up to their immigration court dates and all that kind of stuff. They're going after the legible ones. By definition, the violent criminal guys are much harder to get, and so the messaging looks -- the optics, which reveal a reality, is it's a much harsher policy than what a lot of people thought they were voting for.
MATTINGLY: Yes, there's no question about that, and people are definitely paying attention to it. I feel good. I feel like everything you said, with a pin in it, everything was right 100 percent, which is always the case.
FINNEY: Of course.
[17:54:37]
MATTINGLY: Thank you, guys, very much. Appreciate it. The new era of politics in New York is starting Thursday, January 1st, 2026. We're going to go there, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTINGLY: The first day of 2026 will usher in one of the biggest political events of the year. On Thursday, January 1st, self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani will be sworn in as New York City's first Muslim mayor. CNN's Gloria Pazmino is in New York with new details about how the ceremony will play out. Gloria?
GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Phil. And you know, inaugurations are all about sort of setting the tone for the incoming administration. We expect a lot of speeches, perhaps some performances. And we've learned about two guests who will be at the inauguration that I think will help sort of set the tone and send the message of the incoming Mamdani administration.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who campaigned alongside Mamdani during the race for mayor, will be there to introduce him. And Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who Mamdani has credited with inspiring him to run for public office, will administer the oath of office. This is going to be a big celebration down at City Hall Park.
More than 4,000 people are expected to pack into the plaza, plus likely several thousand more who have been invited to join in a watch party that will be set up along Broadway, right outside the gates of City Hall.
Now, Mamdani will officially take office at the stroke of midnight. He will do so in a private ceremony where State Attorney General Letitia James will administer the oath of office, along with Mamdani's family. And then the following afternoon, they will have this grand celebration.
[18:00:13]
He will take office, becoming New York City's 112th mayor, making history as the first Muslim, the first immigrant, and one of the youngest in more than a century. Phil?
