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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Major Arrest in the Wake of Epstein Files Release; Patel Parties with U.S. Olympic Team in Italy; Trump Overall Approval Rating at 36 Percent. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired February 23, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNKNOWN (voice-over): This is "CNN Breaking News."

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to "The Lead." I'm Jake Tapper. A lot going on as we come on the air today. First, another major arrest in the wake of the release of the Epstein files. This time, Peter Mandelson, also known as the former British ambassador to the United States, he is accused of passing sensitive government information to Jeffrey Epstein. And his arrest comes just days after the arrest of the former Prince Andrew. More in that space in a moment.

We're also following this crippling bomb cyclone hitting the Northeast. Blizzard warnings in Boston don't let up until tomorrow. This is the biggest winter storm in years for the country's biggest city, New York City. I'm going to talk with -- about the response with the New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani who will be here on "The Lead."

We're also monitoring the violent situation in Mexico tipped off by the killing of Mexico's most wanted cartel boss. Many anxious Americans stuck in Mexico waiting for direction from the U.S. State Department.

We're going to begin in our law and justice league. Today, the Jeff Epstein files release led to the arrest of yet another high profile British official, former U.K. ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson, who was arrested Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. According to London's Metropolitan Police, Met Police have not confirmed the specifics of the offense for which Mandelson was arrested.

But if the phrase, suspicion of misconduct in public office, sounds familiar, it's because that's the exact same reason why Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, the former Prince Andrew, was arrested last week. Mandelson, a veteran labor party politician has been accused of allegedly passing marketed -- market-sensitive information to then alive, now dead pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

While serving as business secretary in the British government, Mandelson had already been fired by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in September after a previous release of Epstein files showed that he wrote the dead pedophile a note referring to him as "my best pal." And then the revelations from this latest batch of Epstein files led to Mandelson's resignation from the labor party earlier this month.

Now, inclusion in the Epstein files is not necessarily evidence of wrongdoing and certainly not evidence of the worst possible wrongdoing that we're talking about when we talk about Epstein. Mandelson has not publicly commented on these new allegations, and he previously denied any criminal wrongdoing or complicity in the horrific crimes of Epstein. He did apologize for his association with him.

But this scandal has even put Prime Minister Keir Starmer on shaky political ground. He's facing questions over how much he knew about Mandelson's relationship with Epstein when he appointed him U.K. ambassador to these United States.

Let's bring in Andrew Eborn, international lawyer and broadcaster. Andrew, this seems quite remarkable. We just spoke last Thursday after Prince -- former Prince Andrew was arrested, now, Mandelson. Tell us more about suspicion of misconduct in public office, what that charge might mean.

ANDREW EBORN, INTERNATIONAL LAWYER AND BROADCASTER: Oh, absolutely. While blizzards are battering the U.S., we've had a tsunami of scandals and, indeed, possibly an avalanche of arrests over here in this side of the pond. As you say, Mandelson is one of the most powerful men in British politics. He was arrested on suspicion of misconduct of -- in public office. It isn't just another headline. It's a seismic moment for accountability at the very, very top.

And what it effectively is, it's an incredibly serious charge that you've got a very high level of proof because the risk is that if he's found guilty after all the evidence, and if he's charged and so on and so forth, the maximum penalty is life imprisonment.

No charges have been brought, and Mandelson as you rightly say, protests his innocence at the moment, and everybody is entitled to be presumed innocent until proven guilty. In fact very strict rules here in the U.K. about contempt of court. And once somebody has been arrested, those contempt of court rules kick in.

And what they basically say is you can't comment on any evidence, you can't comment on suspicions, you can't comment on any previous convictions if there are any, in case there's a risk of prejudicing a fair trial. So, while the justice is done, it also needs to be seen to be done. And everybody but everybody is, nobody is above the law, but everybody is entitled to that fair trial.

TAPPER: So, Prime Minister Starmer has been facing considerable pressure and criticism, not over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, but over his appointment of Mandelson to be ambassador.

[17:05:00]

That subsided a bit after Starmer's chief of staff and head of communications resigned. But do you expect calls for Starmer to resign? Are they going to reignite given Mandelson's arrest? EBORN: Oh that's -- you make such a good point. There are permanent calls for Starmer to resign. What happened? He personally appointed Mandelson as ambassador to the U.S. in December 2024 despite knowing that Mandelson had remained in contact with Epstein after the 2008 conviction for sex offences. Now, that was the biggest scandal of all because that emerged in Prime Minister's question time over here on the 4th of February.

What Stammer says, he didn't know the full extent of that relationship with Epstein. He didn't know it had continued, but he says that he was lied to repeatedly about the extent of the relationship. And basically what's happened is triggered intense scrutiny of Starmer's judgment.

And they also had the resignation of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and there's going to be forthcoming publication of vetting documents. What was actually known when and by whom? A lot more is going to come out on a daily basis.

TAPPER: Andrew Eborn, thank you so much. Let's discuss this some more with Julie K. Brown of the Miami Herald. She has an extensive Substack called "The Epstein Files by Julie K. Brown." She's also the author of the book "Perversion of Justice, the Jeffrey Epstein Story." I recommend both the book and the Substack.

Julie, in the wake of the Epstein Files release, no Americans have been arrested. The U.K. leads the U.S. in arrest, two to zero. Do you chalk this up to a difference in British and American laws, or is there something else going on?

JULIE K. BROWN, INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER, "THE MIAMI HERALD": Well, we all know how hard it was for members of Congress and the victims to even get the Trump administration to release these files.

So, we're, you know, this is just a case I think that the American government is not recognizing and has really never recognized judging from what we're seeing so far in the files, how serious this Epstein case was, how deeply he was involved in not only sex trafficking but likely, money laundering and other kinds of intelligence, you know, intelligence gathering that may have even hurt our national security.

TAPPER: There's an email from the Epstein files that really caught my attention. We don't know who it's from or who it was sent to, but it's dated five days after Epstein was arrested in 2019, and it says, quote, "FBI reached out to NYPD leadership already," -- that's the New York Police Department -- "and they were told that SVU," -- the Special Victims Unit -- "has been directed to stand down and that all Epstein stuff needs to go through us." What do you make of this?

BROWN: Well, it's hard to believe that the New York Police Department did not get any kind of notification after all this time, any kind of complaints, any kind of calls. We know that Maria Farmer, for example, at one point went to the New York Police Department to complain what was going on there and what she suspected was happening with underage girls.

And I've seen other communication between the New York Police Department and the FBI concerning them looking into certain people, certain men who were at Epstein's mansion. And there were some incidences that they were investigating, and they really didn't go anywhere. So, it's possible that the feds just decided, look, we're going to take over from here because you guys had received these complaints and never did anything with them.

TAPPER: Pressure is mounting publicly and privately for entertainment mogul Casey Wasserman to step down. He's chair of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Committee. This after the Epstein files revealed a series of salacious, even embarrassing emails that he and Epstein associate, Ghislaine Maxwell wrote back and forth.

Do you think he's going to be able to survive this without stepping down? And what do you say to those who say that there isn't necessarily evidence of this -- of wrongdoing here because these emails seem to take place in 2003 before people knew Epstein had been investigated for underage sex crimes, and it's only about him and Ghislaine Maxwell?

BROWN: Well, look, there are, you know, this involves whether your judgment calls. And when you're a CEO of a company or you're involved in planning a massive event like the Olympics, one has to question that if you're involved with people like this, what kind of judgment you really have.

I think all of these cases have to be reviewed individually. I'm sure there are some cases where some people really had tangential contact with Epstein. But for anyone that had repeated contact with Epstein, whose name is in his emails repeatedly, it's hard to justify something like that because he certainly -- he and Maxwell, certainly there was enough information out there, enough publicity out there to know that he was involved in, you know, some crimes that were really despicable.

[17:10:06]

TAPPER: Julie K. Brown, always appreciate your time and expertise. Thank you so much. Coming up, the FBI director's enthusiastic beer- soaked celebration with Team USA at the Olympics in Milan. Does this count as official government business? And are you and I paying for it? Plus, the new CNN poll that seems to spell trouble for President Trump ahead of his State of the Union address tomorrow will have the nation's attention. Stay with us.

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[17:14:39]

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TAPPER: Believe it not, that's your FBI director, Kash Patel, celebrating with the U.S. men's hockey team after their overtime win against Canada to win the gold medal. It was an incredible win that all Americans can celebrate.

[17:15:00] Now, why exactly the FBI director, who you might think would be busy with all sorts of things, why he's in the locker room in Italy, seemingly pounding beers along with the team?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Well, you could be forgiven if you're asking that question, especially after FBI spokesman Ben Williamson was lashing out at a reporter from a different network on Twitter the day before the game for asking whether Patel was going to attend the match. The FBI spokesman writing, quote, "Your rag outlet wrote he went to hang out at the Olympics on the taxpayer dime even when provided information that your theory was false," unquote.

Now, the FBI is denying this was a personal trip for Patel. They say the director flew to Milan on the FBI's Gulf stream private jet for meetings with Italian law enforcement, and security officials adding that the FBI plays a major role in Olympic security and that the trip was planned months in advance. Of course, the Olympics was planned years in advance.

Director Patel responded to the criticism on X, apparently not taking it very seriously, writing, quote, "For the very concerned media, yes, I love America, and was extremely humbled when my friends, the newly minted gold medal winners on Team USA, invited me into the locker room to celebrate this historic moment with the boys," unquote.

Of course, the issue is not whether or not Kash Patel loves America. It's about his judgment and whether or not he's embarrassing the Bureau and the perks he grabs, and the seriousness with which he treats his job, and one would think the FBI is pretty busy these days with lots of things going on, the Government Accountability Office estimates that flying the FBI private jet costs at least $5000 per hour, meaning Patel's Olympic trip could theoretically cost taxpayers at least tens of thousands of dollars.

And we should note that the FBI director for security reasons is legally mandated to use government aircraft for all travel, including personal trips. But they are required to reimburse taxpayers for the commercial cost of their travel. But the question is, why was he in Italy to begin with? The trip to Italy is far from the only time that Patel has faced accusations of using government for his personal benefit.

Reportedly, at Patel's direction, the FBI is even providing a separate security detail for his girlfriend -- no, not his wife, not his fiance, his girlfriend, country music singer Alexis Wilkins who lives part time in Nashville. Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee launched an investigation last year into Patel's use of the FBI jet for private travel.

There was a time, of course, you might remember, when Kash Patel seemed to have a different attitude towards the use of government resources. This is from his confirmation hearing last year.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) KASH PATEL, FBI DIRECTOR: And the resources of the FBI, which are funded by the American taxpayer dollars, in the seven minutes that you and I have been talking about, two people have died from fentanyl overdoses, one person has been shot to death in this country, and three people have been raped. The resources of the FBI will go to that mission set and that mission set alone, because America deserves a better brand of justice and I'm going to give it to them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Okay, so how many Americans died of fentanyl overdoses? How many Americans were shot to death and how many Americans were raped while Kash Patel was celebrating in that locker room? We reached out to the FBI for comment, but we were told the Bureau didn't have anything additional to add to the director's post on X.

Joining us now to discuss is the former FBI Deputy Director, Andrew McCabe. I know that Republicans on Capitol Hill are embarrassed about this, not just Democrats. Do you think Director Patel partying with Team USA in Italy was appropriate? And what do you make of the FBI's explanation for why he was in Italy? You've certainly taken meetings around the world.

ANDREW MCCABE, CNN SENIOR LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST: Yes, I mean the video is ridiculous and was completely inappropriate for him to be engaging -- to go at all. Let's be honest, the excuse that he had to go for security meetings the day before the games are over is patently ridiculous. Director Mueller once traveled to Greece to consult with partners on the security arrangements for the Greek Olympics, eight months before the games began.

That's when the sort of details and arrangements are made, that an FBI director needs to weigh in on, to make sure that others understand the role of the Bureau and those sorts of things. It's not the day of the final hockey game, and of course now we know exactly what he was doing there.

Horrible, horrible message to the FBI rank and file. It's absolutely -- I'm sure that this video is coursing through that population today. And a horrible message to the country when the FBI is in the middle of such incredibly important investigations, everything from the notorious kidnapping now on its fourth week of Nancy Guthrie, all the way to we may be on the brink of war with Iran.

Now, I can tell you from having been in that position before, when you are in the brink of hostilities with a country that is sponsor of terrorism, the FBI is right now, using a microscope where they should be, to go through all of their records to find Iranian sleeper agents in United States.

TAPPER: It's impossible to imagine the former FBI director Chris Wray ever doing something like this, even though he was forced out by Trump.

[17:20:01]

But listen to what Patel, back when he was a podcaster, said in 2023 about how Chris Wray used the FBI jet.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PATEL: I'm just saying Chris Wray doesn't need a government-funded G- 5 jet to go to vacation. Maybe we ground that plane $15,000 every time it takes off. Just a thought."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: And lest we forget, in 1993, President Clinton fired the then-director of the FBI William Sessions. He was accused of improperly using an FBI plane for personal travel. I mean, I understand that this jet is for-- you have to use it if you're the FBI director. But you don't have to go to the Olympics and do beer bongs with the players in the gold medal winning hockey team.

MCCABE: Of course not. That requirement is the reason why every FBI director I ever worked for went out of their way to not travel for personal reasons only. You know, this is, it's absolutely outrageous, the level of hypocrisy that you see here. Jim Comey and Christopher Wray both moved their residences to the D.C. area to avoid having to travel home every weekend.

There's been enormous amount of reporting on Kash Patel and the amount of time he spends outside of D.C. every weekend traveling back to Las Vegas, which is, I believe, where he lives or other places. So, the hypocrisy is absurd and the FBI people understand that.

TAPPER: I just can't imagine being somebody in, let's say, a missing persons case thinking that the FBI could be doing a better job, should be doing a better job and looking up and seeing that image. Just shocking. Andrew McCabe, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Coming up, an issue that has kept President Trump fuming all weekend ahead of tomorrow's State of the Union address. My next guest also has a lot to say on the issue. He's going to attend the address at the invitation of a Democrat. Stay with us.

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[17:26:14]

TAPPER: In our politics league, we're back with a new CNN poll ahead of tomorrow's State of the Union address. President Trump's overall approval rating now stands at a rather abysmal 36 percent. The President is also at a new low when it comes to the view of him among independent voters. Only 26 percent say they approve of his job performance. Twenty-six percent compared to 41 percent last year.

Drop of 15 points for people paying attention. Fifty-seven percent of Americans across the board say they want Trump to focus tomorrow's speech on the economy and the cost of living. A reminder of CNN's January poll shows Trump holds a 39 percent approval on the economy -- 39 percent And he's continuing today to rail against the U.S. Supreme Court's Friday ruling, striking down his tariffs. Here with me now is Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton of Arizona.

With him is Greg Fraley, who's going to be Stanton's guest at tomorrow's speech. Greg is the COO of an aluminum manufacturer in Arizona.

So, Congressman, the President spoke Friday about the U.S. Supreme Court decision ruling against his sweeping terror of regime, and he's been furiously firing off Truth social posts all weekend.

He wrote this morning, quote, "As President, I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of tariffs. It has already been gotten in many forms a long time ago. They were also just reaffirmed by the ridiculous and poorly crafted Supreme Court decision. What do you make of the way he's responded to the Supreme Court's ruling?

REP. GREG STANTON (D-AZ): He's a hundred percent wrong. His terrorists were illegal from day one. He -- we all knew that from day one, a tariff is a tax, and a tax can only be put in place by the United States Congress. The Supreme Court by a 6-3 ruling made that absolutely clear, and the President, instead of doing what a President should do, which is listen to the Supreme Court and follow the order, did exactly the opposite.

He thinks that he can issue these tariffs unilaterally without regard to Congress. And so, what he's trying to do is issue these tariffs illegally through another illegal justification. He's wrong on that, as well. If he wants these tariffs, the Republicans are in-charge of the House come to congress and make that request, otherwise they are illegal.

TAPPER: Yes, I don't think there are the votes for their -- for the tariffs especially with Speaker Johnson's one vote majority. Greg, your company FALCO gets aluminum from suppliers in Los Angeles which, primarily imported from Canada as I understand it. What has been the impact of the tariffs for your business?

GREG FRALEY, COO, FALCO MANUFACTURING: Well, the impact is my cost for the raw material aluminum that I use has jumped 72 percent in the last 12 months. That's all really driven by the tariff costs.

TAPPER: Have you had to lay people off or raise your prices?

FRALEY: I have not had to lay people off. I just haven't been rehiring when I've lost employees through attrition and has prevented me from being able to expand the business as the aircraft manufacturers that I supply have been requesting us to hire up. But we haven't been able to just because I don't have the cash flow that allows me to be able to do that.

TAPPER: And you're a lifelong Republican, as I understand it, and voted for Trump in 2024. Were you expecting this? I mean, he did say he liked tariffs.

FRALEY: Yes, but I didn't expect to see this kind of a spike in the tariffs. The tariffs hit the aluminum markets that drive that price up so much, makes it difficult to get in the United States to remelt it and allow us to make the aircraft products that we make for all the major aircraft manufacturers here in the United States.

TAPPER: Congressman, the court did not come up with any sort of conclusion as to what will happen to the billions of dollars that the federal government collected from the tariffs. Speaker Johnson just told CNN he does not think that the government should pay back those costs. How do you think it should be decided?

STANTON: I can't believe the Speaker takes that position. If you have illegally put tariffs in place, that means the resources from those tariffs have been illegally received by the government. They belong to the people of the United States of America, and we need to push forward right now to making sure that those dollars get back to our fellow Americans as soon as possible.

[17:30:07]

And that the biggest businesses in America with the highest priced lawyers don't get to the front of the line. We need make sure that the American people and small and locally-owned business have the fair opportunity to get their resources without having to hire a bunch of lawyers. That's the right approach.

Now, it's going to be a mess, but it's not a mess of our making. It's a mess of Donald Trump's making because he put into place these illegal tariffs.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Greg, how much approximately is it in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions of dollars that you think you've paid in tariffs?

GREG FRALEY, COO, FALCO MANUFACTURING: Well, it -- the tariff cost has reflected this in general metal pricing. We would say -- I would say we took a seven figure hit last year to our bottom line because of the impact tariffs had.

TAPPER: So in the millions, what do you think should happen to that money? Let's -- I'm just going to make up a number. Let's say it's $7 million.

FRALEY: Well, I've got to let the politicians handle that one. Because I fall under -- let's see, I fall under the 232 tariffs. I don't fall under the IEPA. So the politicians will have to handle that. That's kind of outside my knowledge.

STANTON: Just to be clear, he has a 50 percent tariff plus now they're adding onto it this new tariff under Section 122.

TAPPER: Yes, let's talk about that.

STANTON: His tariff rates are going up massively in an industry in which he can only buy from Canada. He doesn't have the ability to buy from American sources. So this tariff under Section 232 is hitting an American company --

TAPPER: Yes.

STANTON: -- not able to grow employment, yet he's not able to buy from American sources. It is completely self-defeating.

TAPPER: And Greg, as the congressman just intimated, the President says he's going to use Section 122 to impose a global tariff of 15 percent. What do you expect the impacts of that will be?

FRALEY: I will see a significant jump in the cost of aluminum coming in the United States. And that will be a very negative impact to companies like mine. Small businesses are the ones that are really struggling. We can't absorb it like, you know, the large corporations can. What doesn't make sense to me, Jake, is that we want to say made in America, yet we're wanting to tariff the raw materials to help me make it in America.

TAPPER: Yes.

FRALEY: That doesn't make sense.

TAPPER: And you can't get those raw materials here in the United States?

FRALEY: That's correct.

TAPPER: All right. Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton from Arizona and Greg Fraley who's the CEO -- COO of Falco, thank you so much. Appreciate both of you.

FRALEY: Thank you, Jake.

TAPPER: Tomorrow will mark four long years since Russia invaded Ukraine. Many military analysts thought then Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. That did not happen. Hear what the Ukrainian president thinks of his country's fight in this war right now. His exclusive interview with CNN is next.

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[17:36:59]

TAPPER: A horrible anniversary in our World Lead. Tomorrow marks four years since Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the biggest attack seen in Europe since World War II. U.S.-mediated talks between Moscow and Kyiv, part of the Trump administration's year-long push for a peace proposal, have failed to produce a breakthrough. CNN's Clarissa Ward is in Ukraine, and she sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today as the conflict is about to enter its fifth year.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I've been coming here regularly throughout the war, and I can honestly say that this time it feels different. The morale is the lowest that I have ever seen it. And I wonder, as things stand, do you believe that Ukraine can still win this war?

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: We didn't lose our country, our independence and freedom. We have it. Now we speak in the capital. Russia is not winning. This is very important. And everybody is asking how long we can hold the line and how long we can stay.

WARD: And how long can you?

ZELENSKYY: You know, it's not about it. We want to do it yesterday. We wanted Putin to stop this war yesterday. And when we speak about how to stop him, first of all, to give Ukraine security guarantees.

WARD: So help us understand what is going on with these security guarantees. What is the hold-up?

ZELENSKYY: We have mostly everything. I think everything in the paper. But it's not still signed. It's not signed by the United States.

WARD: Why?

ZELENSKYY: I think that the United States wants to sign security guarantees at the same -- very same moment when the 20 points plan will be accepted by all of us.

WARD: And is that a problem for you?

ZELENSKYY: I think it's not the problem, but I think I can tell you what is better. For me, it still is not clear that if Russia will begin aggression against us. What I wanted very much to have in these security guarantees. My question is how partners will react on the aggression of Russia if it will be.

WARD: So you want a very specific, in-writing guarantee.

ZELENSKYY: I want very -- we have good things in these guarantees. It's true between us. It's true. But I want very specific answer what partners will be ready to do if Putin will come again.

WARD: If you get those security guarantees, would you be willing to accept a frozen front line whereby Russia keeps the territory that they have already seized?

[17:39:56]

ZELENSKYY: We already said that we are ready for the compromise to freeze the points where we stay, the places. It's a frozen contact line. We are ready for this. But if Russians or partners with -- in dialogue with Russians want just to withdraw our army from our fortifications, I mean this, we can't be such, sorry, foolish guys. We are not children.

WARD: What would you like to hear from President Trump tomorrow at his State of the Union address?

ZELENSKYY: I want him to stay on our side.

WARD: This woman said to me, I never want to hear the word resilient again. I am so over being resilient. I am so exhausted. I am so broken. What do you tell Ukrainian people right now who are feeling that they're done?

ZELENSKYY: It's very difficult. It's very understandable and painful that we want to end this war as quick as possible. And really, we -- each day we do all we can. I speak with all the partners. I try to negotiate. I'm asking different partners in different continents, help me to stop Putin. But if we will give him all he wants, we will lose everything, just everything, our houses, our lives, our families, everything. Because all of us people will have to run away from the country or be Russians.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WARD: And Jake, I have to say it is notable being here this time and talking to Ukrainians that you do sense there is a lot of bitterness towards the U.S. A lot of people here feel that effectively America has abandoned Ukraine. They're still struggling to understand it because of how close that partnership was just four years ago.

And they're so desperate to see the U.S. really apply more pressure on President Putin. That's important to underscore. President Zelenskyy said that the communication between him and President Trump is going well. They had good discussions in December. The technical teams of negotiators are communicating with each other on a daily basis. But he said, let's be very clear about this.

The U.S. is the only power in the world that can really push Putin to make the compromises. And he understands that Ukraine will have to make big compromises too to end this war once and for all, Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Clarissa Ward, thank you so much. We're going to come back to you later in the show.

Parts of the Northeast right now getting more than 30 inches of snow from a blizzard, 30 inches. You're looking at parts of New York's Central Park. The city's mayor, Zohran Mamdani, is coming up here on The Lead.

[17:43:04]

But first, the fight over a single congressional district in Texas. Why it's such a focus for Republicans ahead of the November midterms. What folks there told CNN's John King in his All Over the Map Series. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: It's a big week in our politics lead and a lot's in stake -- on stake. So let's cue the music. CNN elections jam, please. There it is. The midterms are here. Texas kicks off the primary season a week from tomorrow, March 3rd. It's time to zero in on a hot race. Specifically the 3rd -- 34th congressional district in Texas at the southern tip of the state. Currently holding the seat is conservative Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez. President Trump barely won that district in 2024. Competitive does not even begin to describe this race. CNN's John King went there to see why.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): That Texas 34 is even competitive speaks volumes about Trump's troubles. This was one of the big targets in the Texas redistricting plan. On paper, the district was solid red. But on the ground, it's a toss-up.

KING: And if this seat stays Democratic, well then Democrats are taking the House. And that completely changes the Trump presidency.

DAISY ALCAZAR, BROWNSVILLE RESIDENT: I don't think we are going to survive.

KING (voice-over): Daisy Alcazar sees the stakes as way bigger than which party controls the House and Senate.

ALCAZAR: We are on fire. We are being burnt down to the floor. Our businesses, our economy, our voice matters. We can make a change. This is a year that the Latino community can show up for their people.

KING: Look at that.

ALCAZAR: There you go.

KING (voice-over): Alcazar owns La Pale in Brownsville.

KING: We let them fall in.

KING (voice-over): Sales at the store are down. Alcazar says working families have less to spend.

ALCAZAR: The edX (ph) splurge money. We are a luxury item right now.

KING (voice-over): Plus she says fear keeps many Latinos home.

ALCAZAR: We are a target right now. And this doesn't matter if you're documented or are documented legal or illegal. ICE enforcement is literally walking up and down the streets. We cannot normalize this.

KING (voice-over): Trump carried the 34th by four points in 2024. If the new lines had been in place, he would have won by 10 points.

KING: Here's what's changing. The current 34th includes Hidalgo County. That's along the U.S.-Mexico border. In the new map, the Hidalgo piece is pushed into a neighboring district. Added to the new 34th, a big slice of Nueces County. That's here, Corpus Christi. Now in the new district, about 60,000 fewer Latino residents and more white voters. Still, in the new 34th, the Hispanic population still makes up more than 70 percent of the voting age population.

[17:50:07]

KING (voice-over): Milton Reyna owns a Corpus Christi bar, about to shift to the redrawn district.

MILTON REYNA, CORPUS CHRISTI RESIDENT: A lot of our customers tend to lean a little further right. So when Trump was elected, we did get a surge.

KING (voice-over): Reyna is a three-time Trump voter, plans to vote Republican in November, but is sitting out the March primary.

REYNA: I think everybody's a little bit exhausted talking about politics. I tend to turn the T.V. off a little bit more than I used to.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: And Jake, on the ground there, you feel, hear, see, viscerally feel what you see in our new poll. The President's approval rating among Latinos has gone to 22 percent. He won nearly half of the Hispanic vote in the last election. He won nearly half, and he's down to 22 percent. If it stays down there, probably a little higher there in Texas, if that's seat, they redrew that to make it Trump plus 10. If the Republicans can't win that, the House is gone.

TAPPER: Amazing. John King, thank you so much. It's just amazing to watch the changes in just a year. Crazy.

Also, the Politics Lead, today, President Trump offered a small hint about tomorrow night's State of the Union address. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Greatest economy we've ever had. We have the most activity we've ever had. I'm making a speech tomorrow night, and you'll be hearing me say that. I mean, it's going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Long speech, so much to talk about. You can look for something a bit different tomorrow during tomorrow's coverage of the address as I lead coverage here on CNN, along with CNN's Anderson Cooper. CNN's All Access app will feature a voter live cast, a conversation happening in the key swing state of Michigan. It'll be hosted by two CNN senior political commentators, Van Jones and Scott Jennings.

Gentlemen, thank you both for jumping on. I know you are making your way to Michigan. Van, first to you, give us a bit of your prep sessions. What are you going to be listening for in tomorrow's voter live cast?

VAN JONES, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, you know, we're here in swing state country. This is not the coastal elite crowd. What do these voters care about? Do they care about Epstein? Do they care about ICE? What is on their minds is going to be very important for us to get a fix on before the State of the Union.

And then afterwards, what resonates with them? Is there anything that Trump can say that would move a Democrat on any issue? Or is this just going to be a completely lost cause no matter what the president says? That's what I'm going to be dialing in on before and after. TAPPER: And Scott, Trump obviously turned Michigan red in 2016. It went blue in 2020. He flipped it back to red in 2024. Tomorrow's State of the Union is coming about eight months before the November midterms. How vital is Michigan in terms of what you're going to watch in this election cycle?

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, and it has a major Senate race and a major governor's race, so it's quite vital. And obviously the state, Jake, is quite sensitive to the president's policies. You know, there are people in Michigan who love the tariff policies, for instance, and there are people who have been detractors of it. And I'm also going to talk to these voters, especially the ones who voted for Donald Trump, about are they actually excited to vote for other Republicans? This has been one of the enduring technical issues for the Republican Party.

For the people who love Trump, will they turn out for other Republicans on the ballot? That's going to be tested this November. And I think I'm going to be talking to a lot of people about the economy. This is the number one issue. It's the number one issue for Trump. It will be the number one issue in every swing state race in America. I want to see are they blaming Trump for the economy? Do they blame Biden? Do they think his prescriptions are working? These are all conversations that I think Van and I are anxious to have with these swing state voters.

TAPPER: And, Van, President Trump said the speech is going to be long because he's got a lot to say. Any thoughts on how long or whether a long speech benefits him?

JONES: Well, listen, I mean, the people who are going to listen are going to be his base. You know, a lot of people, if you don't like Trump, you won't listen to one minute or 101 minutes. So he does have a pattern with his base of being able to talk for a very long period of time. The reality is, what is he saying? And, you know, he's lost a lot of ground on immigration. Should have been his big issue. He's handled it so recklessly. It's now it's a detriment for him. These tariffs are radically unpopular with his own party. So one reason you might have to talk for a long time. He's got a lot of explaining to do. He's got a lot of explaining to do to his base.

TAPPER: Scott?

JENNINGS: Well, look, I think in Michigan, he's going to find some room to run on the economic message. Again, this is a state where he's had some significant union support, for instance, on the tariffs. One other topic we haven't touched on, but where you might see breaking news could be on foreign affairs. Obviously, we've amassed a huge armada in the Middle East. We don't quite yet know if the President's going to launch a war against the Iranian regime.

We'll see what he has to say about that tomorrow night. So I agree with Van. There'll be some people who want to listen to it all. There'll be some people who don't want to listen to any of it. But certainly the President has the capacity to make some news tomorrow night. Does he plan anything else for his legislative agenda this year? Does he plan anything on the foreign affairs front? We could get a little breaking news out of the speech, and I think every American would want to hear that.

[17:55:09]

TAPPER: All right, Scott, Van, thanks to both of you. Really appreciate it.

And look for the Voter Livecast on the CNN app and right here on CNN during live coverage of the State of the Union Address. It all begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.

In Old Mexico tonight, a sense of anxiety in the wake of violence set off by the killing of a high-profile cartel boss. The U.S. State Department says it has taken in hundreds of calls from Americans initially told the violence is so severe they needed to shelter in place if they were in Mexico. So now what? I'm going to talk with one man who is essentially stranded. That's next.

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TAPPER: Welcome to The --