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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Talks To Fund DHS Ramp Up As Airport Lines Grow More Unpredictable; NTSB Says, Fire Truck In LaGuardia Crash Did Not Have Transponder; AAA Says, Gas Near $4 a Gallon, Up More Than $1 In A Month; Florida Dems Hope To Flip House Seat In Special Election. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired March 24, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:00:00]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper.

This hour, as passengers wait for more than four hours in airport security lines, top Republicans say they've got their party and their president onboard with a new proposal to end the partial shutdown. But will they get Democratic support? And how soon could it get across the finish line? We're going to be live on Capitol Hill and one of the busiest airports in just moments.

Plus, investigators giving an update this afternoon on the deadly crash at New York's LaGuardia Airport, revealing the control tower couldn't track the location of the fire truck involved because it had no transponder. Will this tragedy lead to new safety measures at airports across the country?

Also, gas prices nearing $4 per gallon on average due to the war in Iran. They're the highest prices drivers have seen since 2022. So, how high will prices go and could President Trump's comments on the war today impact what you are paying?

And it's election night in America. Democrats are hoping to flip a seat down in Florida in a district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence. We're heading to the campaign trail for a reality check on their odds.

The Lead tonight, airport lines across the U.S. are unpredictable. TSA workers are days away from missing their second full paycheck, and President Donald Trump may not be fully on board with the solution being proposed by senators and his own party.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: I don't want to comment until I see the deal. But as you know, they're negotiating a deal. I guess they're getting fairly close. But I think any deal they make, I'm pretty much not happy with it.

(END VIDEO CLIP) MATTINGLY: Now, Trump did say he wants to support Republicans and would look at the plan which would fund DHS and therefore get those TSA workers paid, but it would not fund immigration enforcement, essentially what Democrats have said they wanted. Even if the plan does move forward, it is unclear when we'll see any movement. And one top TSA official today outlined just how desperate the situation is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADAM STAHL, DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR, TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION: So, we got folks sleeping in cars, have folks having to pay essentially get blood drawn to afford gas to come to work. So, the situation is dire.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: CNN's Lauren Fox is with us on Capitol Hill, CNN's Ed Lavandera is at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

Ed, I want to start with you because I've just been watching you throughout the course of the last several days, tracking the four, four and a half, maybe five hours that people have been waiting. What are you seeing right now?

ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're kind of reaching the point in the day where there's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Remember, the line -- we're in Terminal E. The line for this TSA security checkpoint is beyond over there. So, where we're standing, where the passengers are, it's about an hour a wait. But the line actually to get here has started two floors below where we are now.

But if you look now, this area down here was just about an hour ago filled with people. Now, we're kind of getting toward the end of the day and clearly some relief here in sight. But the line, you know, to get from down there and the floor below it, you get up here and you actually have to make the line outside. That's the way it's been rolling. Then you get to come back inside here and get your way toward the TSA checkpoint, or it's the Promised Land, as I've been calling it, throughout the day.

But this is one of two TSA security checkpoints that is opened here in this airport in Houston. And that's the problem. There's nine of them normally to keep passengers moving through all the various terminals, but all of the passengers getting shuffled through two security checkpoints and you combine that with close to a 40 percent call out rate that we've seen in days previous from TSA employees, and that is a recipe for problems here at this airport.

No real sign that is going to let up tomorrow in the days ahead. So, we have been talking to passengers who are fully aware of the drama that is unfolding here every day and the lengths that they're going to to try to make sure they catch their flights. We've met people who are catching flights were showing up here at the airport seven or eight hours before their flight. I met one man earlier today, Phil, who was traveling to Trinidad, missed his flight yesterday. He showed up today, almost 12 hours before his flight. He told me there was no way he was going to miss that flight again.

So, that is what so many of these passengers here are trying to navigate right now. Phil?

MATTINGLY: It's wild. And, Ed, you and your team have been the eyes and ears of people who are looking to where Lauren Fox is right now and saying, what on Earth is wrong with you guys? Fox, walk me through this because I've been trying to figure this out for the last 36 hours about where this alleged deal and potential solution to the people that are standing behind Ed have been looking for. What's the state of play here?

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think a couple of things are true, Phil. Right now, there is not the kind of urgency that you might expect given the lines that people like Ed Lavandera are covering around the country, and yet they are inching closer to perhaps finding a middle ground.

[18:05:10]

That deal that Republicans unveiled yesterday and into the morning, it essentially funds everything except immigration enforcement practices by ICE. Now, that traditionally has been something Democrats have been calling for on the floor of the Senate, and yet Democrats say they want additional reforms in order to support that deal.

What those reforms might be, I think that is the question right now. I'm told that Democrats are trying to draft a response to the Republican offer, but there's a huge question mark that hangs in the balance, and that is, will Donald Trump sign whatever Senate Republicans and Democrats can come up with, and is the House of Representatives going to go along?

Earlier today, House Speaker Mike Johnson made clear that it was not his preference to break this apart and try to fund immigration enforcement later on through a complex budget process. Instead, he said he thought that they should keep this all together.

But I will just tell you, Phil, that right now, there are so many moving pieces, but people are starting to get the hint on Capitol Hill that this just isn't going to stand. And like you noted at the top of this hour, it is going to be another missed paycheck for TSA workers in just a couple of days. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Lauren, Fox, Ed Lavandera, great work, both of you guys. Thanks so much.

Let's discuss with Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey. He sits on the Financial Services and Intelligence Committees. Congressman, first, thanks for being here. I know you're always kind of --

REP. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-NJ): Thanks for having me.

MATTINGLY: -- working behind the scenes, trying to find outcomes in moments like this. But just to start, the Republican plan, which as Lauren was just explaining, funding DHS except for the small portion of immigration enforcement, seems like it's a pretty big concession for Democrats. Do you think your caucus would be on board with this?

GOTTHEIMER: Listen, I think it's something we got to get to because let's be clear, we can't have another week or so of airports being a mess the way they are right now with long lines for families. You add to that the holidays coming up, and, of course, all these TSA agents who aren't getting paid and lots of people in Homeland who aren't getting paid right now, and that's just not okay.

So, we got to figure this out. We've got to get DHS open. I think this is a reasonable solution and one where we could probably find some common ground. It seems we can get there. I think everyone's just got to stay at the table if there are a couple issues we want to get through of some ICE reforms. You know, I'm not opposed to that, of course. I've been working on that for more than a month to try to find some reforms. But the best solution might just be this, let's actually, you know, get DHS funded. Let's take ICE enforcement out of it, deal with that later, and get everything back open at Homeland.

MATTINGLY: Yes, I want to ask you about your work over the course of the last month because I think it's really critical and it's also, I think, whenever those talks happen in a real way, on the leadership level, your work will probably be the basis for a lot of it. But before that, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer saying on the floor, this isn't good enough. We're holding out for the reforms. We'll send you something back. Do you think that was a mistake?

GOTTHEIMER: Well, let's see what we asked for before I say it was a mistake. You know, I think if there's some things that we can get done, like you talk about maybe I heard identification being out there, which I think is important for the ICE agents and enforcement measures, and if you talk about certain training, other steps that need to be taken, body cameras being required for ICE agents and enforcement moments, you know, those are good things among other reforms that I think are necessary.

But, listen, if we have to take some of the comprehensive reform package, other reforms and put those aside as part of a funding ICE enforcement package later, you know, that's something that I'm open to. I think we got to stay at the table though. And for right now, the key to me is let's fund DHS, let's get TSA funded and other parts of DHS, which are essential to protecting our homeland and get this back open because I think the public -- you know, it's not right to do to people at airports and other places, and it's certainly not right to do to our TSA agents and others in Homeland.

MATTINGLY: On enforcement reforms or the potential for enforcement reforms, something you've been working on at the table at the front of, over the course of the last month, I believe, first off, you're kind of always the guy who's working behind the scenes on the potential legislative solutions to things. Markwayne Mullin, who is now the DHS secretary, was also that guy oftentimes in the United States Senate. I think you guys have worked together. Do you see outcomes here that can thread the needle between the parties on this very complex issue? GOTTHEIMER: I do this as tough, and obviously I'm not going to get into the specifics of my negotiations and discussions, but let me just say, I think Markwayne, Secretary Mullin is somebody who is reasonable and willing to sit down and engage. I think that some of, and somebody we can work with, certainly a significant upgrade.

[18:10:00]

And I have a lot of faith that he's going to hopefully be part of a process where we can get some good reforms done here.

At the end of the day though, you know, you've got to look at this as part of two things. One, you know, what are we going to do right now? And, obviously, what are we going to do with ICE reforms and other reforms that we've got to make at Homeland?

MATTINGLY: Last one, before I let you go, switching gears over to the Iran war, which is still, of course, very much ongoing. It's been tough to track where the U.S. is, depending on the day, where the president is on things. It seems like there's a genuine effort for diplomatic talks right now. Do you think that's the right path to go down?

GOTTHEIMER: I think that's a very good thing. You know, listen, if we can come to a diplomatic solution here and still meet some of our objectives, obviously, that would be a good outcome. The question is what's on the table? What is -- you know, what are the outcomes that we'll get in, in, in any kind of diplomatic exchange in that matter?

So, it's a little hard to comment on it, but the bottom line is if we're at the table, that's a good thing. We've got to keep the pressure up. We've got a lot of issues. We still have a significant challenge that we've got to address on their ballistic missile program, as you know, and drone program. We got to find out what happens on the nuclear program, what happens on the terror -- on their funding of terror and terror proxies, right? So, there are still a lot of questions out there. Who's going to be in charge? What's that look like in Iran?

So, a lot of questions, and especially because it's been a little unclear, as you said, or as was said before, of the shifting objectives of this conflict, but let's see where this goes, and we should constantly be having these conversations even as we keep the pressure on Iran, which remains to, you know, the leading state sponsor of terror and a significant adversary of our country.

MATTINGLY: Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, I always appreciate your time, sir. Thank you.

GOTTHEIMER: Thanks for having me.

MATTINGLY: Well, we're going live to New York's LaGuardia Airport next, where investigators just gave an update on the deadly crash between an Air Canada plane and a fire truck. Why they say air traffic controllers were limited in their ability to track the fire truck just moments before it was hit. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:15:00]

MATTINGLY: We're back with breaking news in our National Lead. The National Transportation Safety Board revealing new details in Sunday's deadly crash between an Air Canada plane and a fire truck at New York's LaGuardia Airport. The fire truck hit by the plane did not have a transponder on it. That's what allows air traffic control tower to track vehicles on the runway. And only two controllers were working inside the tower at the time of the crash.

The NTSB chairwoman making it clear that accidents like -- likely accident likely involves multiple contributing factors.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JENNIFER HOMENDY, CHAIRWOMAN, NTSB: We rarely, if ever investigate a major accident where it was one failure. So, when something goes wrong, that means many, many things went wrong.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Pilot and CNN Aviation Correspondent Pete Muntean is here to break down some of what we know went wrong. Pete, again, early stages of the investigation, you know this stuff better than anybody. When you were walking away from today's briefing, what were the things that kind of stuck out in your head?

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: There were a few things that stuck out, Phil, namely the fact that there was no transponder on board this lead fire truck that was responding to a different incident on the other side of an airport, a United Airline 737 that had to abort its takeoff twice, and then the fire trucks responded to it.

After that problem was cleared, the fire trucks were crossing -- about the cross Runway Four here at Taxiway Delta, about halfway down the 7,000-foot long runway. The fact that that truck -- the lead truck did not have a transponder means that the system designed to prevent ground collisions just like this was essentially blind to the danger that was unfolding here.

That is a really significant finding, and then the finding from the NTSB as they dug into the staffing levels at the air traffic control tower here at LaGuardia, that there were only two controllers, a controller and a supervising controller overseeing all the arrivals and departures, the ground movements, and what are called clearance deliveries, meaning issuing pilots their full route of flight, those two people were responsible for all of it.

It is not an uncommon practice according to NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy given the late hour of the night on Sunday night, but she did say it may be a practice that is unsafe. It is something that she said their investigators who are experts in air traffic control have underscored in previous incidents that it's not maybe the best idea to have controllers doing multiple roles at the same time. Still so many details to come out here. Remember, this has only been the first 24 hour period that NTSB investigators have been here on the scene. They were caught up in the mess at TSA lines at airports across the country, just like normal travelers, and that has actually slowed down the pace of this investigation. So, it will take some time for them to release even more details, but today is the biggest release of details we have seen about the fatal final moments of this crash yet.

MATTINGLY: Pete, can I stick on the transponder thing for a second? Because there's two pieces of this that are kind of mind blowing to me. One, that this isn't mandatory at all, and, two, that this probably isn't an isolated airport incident where there are no transponders on emergency -- do we know how widespread this is? And like why isn't it mandatory?

MUNTEAN: It is only a recommendation, an encouragement from the FAA that airport ground vehicles, like the fire trucks here, have transponders, essentially transponding, showing their position to air traffic controllers through this ground proximity warning technology, this ground collision warning technology, which is so significant.

[18:20:00]

It's not really clear why that's not required.

And so something like that would likely take an act of Congress. They essentially function as the board of directors in some cases for the Federal Aviation Administration. It's something that National Transportation Safety Board investigators have pointed out would have maybe changed the course of this investigation, even based on what we know at this early phase.

So, it is really clear that more technology is better. And NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy says it is something in 2026 that sort of boggles her mind that we don't have the best technology in the United States for air traffic controllers to do their job, especially when their numbers are so, so small and de minimis.

The air traffic control staffing problem in the U.S., depending on the estimates, you look at range between 1,018 hundred controllers short in the U.S., many of them working mandatory overtime, six-day weeks of ten hour shifts. She said they need the best technology they could get.

MATTINGLY: Real quick before I let you go, just pulling your pilot expertise for a second. The element of this where the NTSB said six seconds before the end of the cockpit voice reporting, the pilot transferred controls. Is that normal?

MUNTEAN: It's hard to say yet whether or not that is significant. We only have the initial readout from the cockpit voice recorder. We don't have the audio. And so we're not really sure yet totally of the context of that. Pilots often exchange control from one to another using what's called positive exchange of controls.

You say you have the airplane, the other person responds, I have the airplane or I have the controls. And then the person handing off the controls confirms by saying, you have the controls. That's a pretty standard practice. Still unclear whether or not that is a big red flag here.

It's also unclear if the crew of that Air Canada Express flight saw the issue that was unfolding in front of them. According to the NTSB, there was no evasive measure taken, no evasive maneuver taken. And, frankly, the pilots were pretty much out of options. They were going about a hundred miles an hour, maybe even more when this collision occurred, tremendous force.

And now we can see the plane behind us right now with cherry-pickers and backhoes approaching it, ready to take some of that wreckage away. This will be just the start of a long investigation. It'll probably take a year for the NTSB to determine all of the factors that one into this. You can't pin it on any one thing. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Pete Muntean, invaluable, as always, my friend, at LaGuardia Airport, New York. Thanks so much.

Well, today, Minnesota sued the Trump administration claiming it's withholding evidence related to the shooting deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by ICE agents. But what exactly is the state demanding here? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:25:00]

MATTINGLY: New today in our Law and Justice Lead, the State of Minnesota is suing the Trump administration. The lawsuit accuses the federal government of blocking the state from accessing evidence related to three ICE-involved shootings that occurred during Trump's immigration crackdown in Minnesota, including the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

CNN's Whitney Wild joins us now. Whitney, the lawsuit lays out in detail the timeline here. What does it reveal?

WHITNEY WILD, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT CORRESPONDENT: Well, it reveals that there were multiple points for each of these three shootings where there had been some kind of at least a loose framework where local law enforcement believed that they were going to work in tandem with federal officials, and then abruptly federal officials closed the door on that. And according to the complaint, it appears that only came after intervention from D.C.-based officials.

What the complaint makes clear is that they have sort of, you know, multiple core arguments, which include that this is very far outside the norm. I mean, these are agencies who are used to working together. The Bureau of Criminal Apprehension in Minnesota is used to working with the FBI. They are used to working with DOJ.

They have filed multiple cases together. Sometimes those cases are in federal court. Sometimes the FBI helps with state cases. This had been for a long time a very good working relationship. The other, you know, core issue here that is being raised is that they're highly skeptical of a real investigation by federal officials into these three shootings.

And then, finally, what the complaint makes clear is that this is a policy and practice that is going to continue if it is not stopped. They point out that again that they are being, you know, denied the ability to access this really crucial evidence in the shooting death of Renee Good, in the shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis and in the shooting death of Alex Pretti. And that completely tramples on the state's sovereignty and their ability to investigate and enforce Minnesota criminal laws. Those are the core complaints.

Let's listen to Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEITH ELLISON, MINNESOTA ATTORNEY GENERAL: I have to stress, friends, how absolutely extraordinary it is, how rare and unprecedented it is, how completely unnecessary it is if justice is our goal for us to have to file this lawsuit.

MARY MORIARTY, HENNEPIN COUNTY ATTORNEY: Minnesotans saw Renee Good and Alex Pretti die at the hands of federal agents. Julio Sosa-Celis was shot and ICE agents lied about what happened. Now, Minnesotans are seeing their federal government hide evidence and obstruct investigations into these incidents. We will not sit by and let that happen. We are prepared to fight for transparency and accountability that the federal government is desperate to avoid.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WILD: Phil, there were multiple, you know, sort of anecdotes in the complaint that highlight their real concerns. And so I'll leave you with this one. It was in the course of investigating the Rene Good shooting, where, initially, there was a framework, both sides, federal and local, believed they were going to work together to investigate that. And so local law enforcement went to the federal building in Minnesota to interview federal agents there, and it was only when they got there that the door was slammed in their face.

[18:30:07]

They were not able, and I don't mean that literally. I mean that, you know, metaphorically, that they were not able to interview these agents. And they were denied even basic information, Phil, like the names of the agents involved in that shooting. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Whitney Wild for us with the latest, thanks so much.

Well, a new warning today from the CEO of United Airlines about how expensive your next flight could get if the war in Iran continues much longer. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) MATTINGLY: In our Money Lead, gas prices seem to go up every day. It's because they literally are at this point. The national average is a couple of pennies under $4 a gallon, according to AAA, more than a dollar a gallon, more than just a month ago.

With that background, listen to what spokesman for Qatar's Foreign Ministry told CNN's Matthew Chance about a warning that went unheeded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAJED MOHAMMED AL-ANSARI, QATARI FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN: And we've said since 2023, escalation left unchecked in the region will lead to not only the regional spillover, but the total regional war that will engulf all of us, and this is exactly what we are in right now.

[18:35:00]

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: So, you told Washington about the potential economic consequences, but they ignored you. What do you feel about that?

AL-ANSARI: They took the decision to go to war according to parameters that they think are, you know, related to regional security. This is their assessments. We're working very closely with them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Let's compare notes with the smartest economic household in America. Betsy Stevenson and Justin Wolfers join me now.

Guys, I really appreciate your time. Justin, I want to start with kind of what I think Matthew's getting at there, which is everybody kind of knew where this would go if certain things occurred, and by that, I mean the day the Strait of Hormuz was pretty clearly, effectively shut. All I could think about was this is going to get terribly bad, terribly quickly, which seems to be playing out. And yet markets based off of Truth Social accounts or public statements are not pricing that in the way I'm thinking about it. You're smarter than me. Am I thinking about this wrong?

JUSTIN WOLFERS, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: Look, there's a lot here to worry about, and we're seeing markets around the world bounce up and down based on what's happening. One important thing to realize is that the effect on foreign countries, and therefore foreign markets, is much, much larger than it is over here.

But the reason you're seeing this on, again, off, again, up and down from markets, is because the president is an unusual sort of a character. The real question is, are we there for, you know, four weeks, four months, or four years or 40 years. These are really important questions. And the president's mood seems to change. He posts something. Normally, you'd be able to know something from a person's character, from their previous statements, from their policy positions, but, really, it does feel like policy's being made on the fly. MATTINGLY: Betsy, for people who are watching this, you know, to Justin's great point, duration is everything here. Like whoever can answer that and however quickly this ends will tell people what's going to happen next. You listened to Fed Chair Powell last week talking about how -- look, the -- in monetary policy, you're trying to look through an energy shock, not necessarily going to be reactive on a monetary policy side. At what point can you no longer look through it? At what point does it become anchored in the broader economy?

BETSY STEVENSON, FORMER LABOR DEPARTMENT CHIEF ECONOMIST: That's a great question. Because in terms of just the energy shock itself, that's exactly what the Fed wants to do is look through it. The problem is if people start to expect that this is going to lead to higher prices overall, and that leads workers to try to negotiate for higher wages, and that essentially what economists talk about is inflation expectations. If we start to expect that we're going to have inflation running three or 4, 5 percent a year until we start to act as if that's happening, that's when they're going to have to take action.

They won't be taking action against the higher oil prices. They'll be taking action over the things we're doing to perpetuate ongoing inflation. The problem is that the U.S. has a slowing economy. And the action they would take would be to raise rates and to deal with the prices. But if you want to deal with the slowing economy, you need to lower rates, and that's the tough position that we're in right now, and why Chair Powell described a rationale for somewhat restrictive monetary policy for right now, why they're not cutting rates right now despite the weakening labor market.

MATTINGLY: Yes. If you're wondering what -- if what Betsy was just describing sounds really complicated for a Fed chair to try and navigate, you were right. That's their worst nightmare, I believe.

Justin, just for people who are driving by their gas stations every single day now and thinking, I don't understand why this is continuing to go up, how long is this going to last, if -- I guess the simple question would be, if the war ends, how long would it take for gas prices to come back down?

WOLFERS: Probably still another couple of months. So, first of all, you can already look at futures prices where people are betting on the future of inflation. While the White House tells you that this is just a blip, according to futures prices, they expect oil prices to be high actually for several years to come. So, that's people betting on the duration of this thing.

But even if we woke up tomorrow, we hugged it out, told our Iranian friends, we're all good mates again, one of the problems is all the storage over there is full, which means they're actually having to put a lid on the oil wells. And this is doubly problematic when it comes to liquid natural gas. And then once you got to get it in the boat, and then you got to get through the straits and all the way around the world.

So, at a minimum, a couple of weeks before, we get a ton of relief, but there's a real possibility we're stuck with higher oil prices and therefore higher gasoline prices for months and possibly years.

MATTINGLY: Betsy last one before I let you guys go, as you are kind of looking forward right now, given the uncertainty, given kind of the inability to put timelines on things or actions at this point in time, what are you really keyed on from a data perspective and maybe people could look at to help understand where the economy is going directionally?

[18:40:13]

STEVENSON: Well, I think it's important not to take your eye off of just what's happening with employment and just, you know, the sort of broader macro economy, are people getting jobs? I think I'm more pessimistic than Justin. I think gas prices are going to stay high for a while. Airfares are going to stay higher. You know, the CEO of United said we may end up leaving demand on the table, but we'd rather be prepared for $100 oil through the rest of this year.

So, you know, we're stuck in this for a little bit, so I think we're going to see people making some strategic cuts in their spending.

MATTINGLY: It's an -- I don't know. It's a -- I'm trying to think of the word to describe this moment right now as somebody who covers the economy in my day job and I'm having a difficult time with it, but it certainly doesn't lack for interest on a day-to-day basis, which people really care about it, of course. Thanks to you both, despite Justin's connections to the University of Michigan, I still like you very much and find you extremely informative.

WOLFERS: (INAUDIBLE).

MATTINGLY: Thanks. Thanks, guys.

Well, it's election night in America and we are headed to the campaign trail in Florida next where Democrats are hoping they can flip a seat in a district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago home.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:45:14]

MATTINGLY: We're back with our politics lead.

Because it's election night in America, and this is Jake Tapper show, we do what Jake does. Cue -- cue the music.

(MUSIC)

MATTINGLY: Polls in Palm Beach, Florida, are closing in moments as voters cast their special election ballots in a district that includes Mar-a-Lago. But does that give the Trump-endorsed candidate an advantage?

CNN's Randi Kaye is on the campaign trail in the Sunshine State. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SUSAN YOFFEE, DEMOCRATIC VOTER: Because if we do not all fight on what's going on in this country, we are going to go down in flames.

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): That's Susan Yoffee. She's one of many Democratic voters here in Florida's District 87, hoping to flip the state house seat from red to blue. President Donald Trump won this district in 2024 by 11 points.

KAYE: If it were to flip to blue, what would you make of that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'd be a little surprised.

KAYE (voice-over): The president's Palm Beach, Florida, home, Mar-a- Lago, is located in this district, so he's one of the 180,000 or so residents who can vote in this special election. In fact, palm beach county records show Trump did vote and he voted by mail.

KAYE: Election.

MICHELLE HALL, REPUBLICAN VOTER: Are you kidding me? I had no idea. Voting by mail to me is terrible unless you have a disability.

KAYE: So, do you think President Trump shouldn't have voted by mail?

HALL: Correct. I think he shouldn't have. If he's against something, why are you doing it?

KAYE (voice-over): Trump has long railed against mail in voting, claiming without evidence it's a significant source of election fraud.

TRUMP: We don't want to have mail in ballots where they're mailed in from all parts of the place, mail in ballots are crooked as hell.

KAYE (voice-over): Just yesterday, he claimed that, quote, mail in voting means mail in cheating.

LINDA CHRISTIE, DEMOCRATIC VOTER: It's just another example of his hypocrisy. What can I say? Like, and he is working to make it harder and harder for people to vote. I just am appalled.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't care how he votes, he's voting. That's great. And so, we got to get it done.

KAYE: And what do you think about the fact that he voted by mail?

YOFFEE: Well, hypocrisy comes to mind.

KAYE (voice-over): Trump endorsed Republican Jon Maples in this race. He's facing off against Democrat Emily Gregory, a business owner and first time candidate. Candidates have made affordability the key issue. But there's also the Trump factor.

KAYE: How important is Donald Trump's endorsement of Jon Maples to you? HALL: Fabulous. Anything Donald does, I do.

KAYE (voice-over): If the Democrats do flip this seat, it will only add to a string of victories across the country since the start of Trump's term. Democrats have flipped more than 20 state legislative seats.

KAYE: What do you think it would mean if the Democrats are able to flip this district from red to blue?

CHRISTIE: Oh my gosh, wouldn't that be heaven? I think that the message would be loud and clear that everything about this administration is appalling. And even his neighbors believe that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: And, Phil, just getting back to the president's mail in ballot. We asked the White House for comment on this. They issued a statement to CNN saying, "As everyone knows, the president is a resident of palm beach and participates in Florida elections, but he obviously primarily lives at the White House in Washington, D.C." And they went on to call this a non-story -- Phil.

MATTINGLY: Randi Kaye for us, great reporting as always, my friend. Thanks so much.

My panel joins me now.

T.W., the president's like back at Mar-a-Lago a lot. Like, you know, he's not only in Washington, D.C. I think the thing I always get stuck on with the mail in balloting is one, Florida Republicans do not want to cancel mail in ballots. VBM was like the Florida Republican strong suit for a long time. But two, the Trump keeps voting by mail.

Why?

T.W. ARRIGHI, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Because he lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

MATTINGL: He's at Mar-a-Lago more than he's at the White House.

ARRIGHI: He's at Mar-a-Lago a lot. But I think as if, as this war has taught you, things change. And the plans have to change. And Donald Trump can't just jump in his car and drive over to local polling. Theres a lot of stuff that happens with it.

So, I agree -- hold on a second.

MO ELLEITHEE, FORMER DNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Are you saying that sometimes it's hard to get to the polling place in person and voting by mail?

ARRIGHI: Yes. If you're the commander in chief, that's why we give. That's -- by the way, that's why there's carve-outs for the military. That's why there's carveouts for people who are out, who are out of town or doing certain travel. They're in the SAVE Act. There are carveouts for people.

And many people think the commander in chief should also have a carveout. However, I do think it would have been a nice symbol to vote in person, but I don't know the president's schedule. He's the most powerful man on earth. Give him a break.

MATTINGLY: We'll give him a break on this one.

Arlette, you are our resident Texan and our expert in all things Texas, mostly cuisine, but I'm going to pull on your politics expertise, which is just as elite.

The Senate primary -- I thought there was going to be a pick.

[18:50:01]

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah.

John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, every Republican of the establishment ilk is saying he's about to -- he's about to back Cornyn. It's going to happen. It's going to happen.

It hasn't happened yet. What is happening?

SAENZ: Yeah, we are almost three weeks since President Trump said that he was going to weigh in on this race. And really, this entire contest is simply frozen because he has not decided to do that just yet. There is some belief that President Trump and his advisors were frustrated by these leaks out in the press, that he was leaning towards endorsing Cornyn, and that might be one of the reasons that he's pulled back a little bit.

But you've seen both Cornyn and Ken Paxton really try to attach themselves to this SAVE Act, because they know that that's something that's a top priority for President Trump. But you're also seeing these candidates still trying to court him in different ways. Cornyn, you know, trying to show his support for the save act, even suggesting eliminating the filibuster to do that. Ken Paxton is running TV ads in Mar-a-Lago, in West Palm Beach almost every weekend in March to try to --

MATTINGLY: He was in D.C. That's why vote by mail.

SAENZ: Well, that is -- I mean, he has been down in Mar-a-Lago. And so, Paxton's teams running these ads to try to argue that Cornyn has betrayed the president. So, you're still seeing both of them angling for this. But there's no question if the president decides not to weigh in on this contest in a little over two months, that its going to be a very messy primary between these two men and a very expensive primary, which is something Republicans have worried about.

MATTINGLY: Mo, I've gone down the "turning Texas blue" road many times in the last 50 cycles. If -- how are Democrats looking at this right now and their candidate, James Talarico?

ELLEITHEE: I think they feel like this is going to be a competitive race. And by all indications, it will be competitive. Look, I am not one of these -- for the past decade-plus, I've stopped making predictions and I think everyone is wise to stop making predictions. But if you see an opportunity where you've got the -- you've got a potential nominee in Ken Paxton who is incredibly weak and you've got a strong candidate like Jim Talarico, you get behind it and you throw in, you give it your best shot.

And I think that's how most Democrats are looking at it. At the very least, it is going to force Republicans to spend money to defend a state they normally wouldn't have to defend or spend money to defend.

MATTINGLY: I want to play some sound from Gavin Newsom, talking about how Democrats should position themselves heading into the midterms. Take a listen

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM (D), CALIFORNIA: Fight fire with fire. And I know two wrongs don't make a right. But with all due respect, we'll lose this country as we try to win that argument. And Democrats are constantly trying to be right. The other side is ruthless and with respect, my party needs to be more ruthless about winning because if we don't win back the House of Representatives, we may not have a fair and free election in 2028. And I really believe that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: I honestly only wanted to pull that clip because of J- Mart's new podcast, where he literally just goes and eats food at great restaurants with a good job. That's a great job I have ever seen. It's also excellent and outstanding.

Mo, I want to get you on what he said in a second.

But when you talk to Democrats, is that how they're thinking about this right now? Is that because I know it's sometimes it's bifurcated in terms of like, okay, how do we approach this moment? What's kind of the consensus?

SAENZ: Yeah. Well, I think that you hear from a lot of Democratic voters who feel that they need to see their candidates fighting more, need to see their politicians up on Capitol Hill fighting more. But there will be questions as these campaigns start to evolve. And whether that is the right approach, especially if you're thinking about a state like Texas where they feel like you need to appeal to like a bit of a more middle of the road to ensure that you're getting candidates on both sides.

But certainly, Democrats right now feel that they do need to be in this fighting position and at least show that they're trying for a portion of the last year, there were many Democratic voters who felt that Democratic politicians just weren't doing enough. And so arguments like this, I think, are things that they hope will resonate with people.

MATTINGLY: T.W., do you think the participation trophy just trying is going to be enough in the midterms?

ARRIGHI: No, I'm not even particularly sure what that looks like. Is it putting out a bunch of videos where you drop an F bomb, or you try to put out some edgy tweets? Is that what you're looking at for fight? Is it creating long lines at TSA by not getting behind a DHS funding bill and totally misrepresenting the situation? I have a hard time understanding what that looks like.

And I think the Democrats set themselves up for a problem if they try to be more like Trump in some of the MAGA folks, because I think it will backfire when people see it's not genuine. Donald Trump is a one of one. A lot of the -- his acolytes and people in Congress are one of ones. They're unique that they've built over time. So that's -- that's sort of how I feel about it.

MATTINGLY: That's a really interesting point that I think is important for people to recognize, like, you know, you're not going to out-Trump the guy. And I don't know that were ever going to see anybody like him or that cuts his particular character or path ever again. Certainly never did before.

How do you navigate that if you're a Democrat?

ELLEITHEE: I have one piece of advice for Democrats.

[18:55:03]

I think what the country is looking for is not necessarily a fighter as much as an alternative. And that's what Democrats need to do a better job than we have in the past. The special elections are great. And I think that there is so much opportunity for Democrats.

And in these special elections, we have proven time and time again that we know how to seize that opportunity. But when we get to that stage, that fight, that competition, we need to be an alternative. People know that they dislike the Republican Party right now, and they dislike this president right now. Show them what they get in return.

MATTINGLY: You guys are the best. Thanks very much.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: "Earth Matters" series, the Trump administration will pay nearly $1 billion taxpayer dollars to a French energy company to not build wind farms. Instead, the White House is asking the company to pursue fossil fuel projects inside the U.S. The $1 billion will be reimbursements for leases the company purchased under the Biden administration to build two offshore wind farms off of New York and North Carolina.

Well, you can follow the show on X and Instagram @TheLeadCNN. If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app.

"ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" starts now.