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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Trump Admin Must Respond To UFC Lawsuit By Tuesday Night; First Match Kicks Off Thursday In Mexico City; Gas Prices Drop Despite Ongoing War With Iran. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired June 08, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST AND POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: All right, thanks very much to my panel. Really appreciate you, guys, for being here. Thanks to you at home for watching as well. Don't forget, you can stream "The Arena" live. Catch up whenever you want to in the CNN app. You can do that by just scanning that Q.R. code below. We also got a podcast. You can scan that Q.R. code for that. You can follow us on X and Instagram @thearenacnn. Don't go anywhere. Phil Mattingly is standing by for "The Lead." Hi, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Kasie. Thanks so much. We will look for more tomorrow in "The Arena."

HUNT: See you.

MATTINGLY: How much do all the Graham Platner scandals matter to Democrats? Well, we're about to find out. "The Lead" starts right now. Election day in Maine just hours away and it is Graham Platner's campaign put to the test. Will Democrats look past all his scandals and make him the ultimate fighter in the U.S. Senate? CNN is live in Maine. Plus, just days before that big UFC fight at the White House, a judge's order today in the lawsuit trying to spike Sunday's entire event. And the entry tonight in the NBA Finals, New York City clearing the way for President Trump's appearance at Madison Square Gardens. CNN is sitting down with the filmmaker Spike Lee, arguably the biggest Knicks fan in the world.

Welcome to "The Lead." I'm Phil Mattingly, in for Jake Tapper. We start in our "Politics League." You can hear the music as we await the results of a highly important election, series of elections, starting in Maine where we right now, election voters, weighing their choices ahead of tomorrow's drama-filled Senate primary and Democrats in a dilemma.

Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner is trying to stabilize his campaign after a litany of scandals. In a New York Times report last week, three of Platner's ex-girlfriends accused him of unsettling behavior and in at least one case physically threatening behavior, all of which Platner denies, plus his tattoo with Nazi symbolism, his extramarital sexting, and his deleted controversial Reddit posts. What other choices do Democrats have? Well, Maine Governor Janet Mills is still on the primary ballot even though she suspended her campaign, but it appears she would be a long shot to beat incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in November's general election.

Then in California, we expect an update on the vote count in the next few hours as officials are still processing ballots from elections last Tuesday, including two key races, the Los Angeles mayoral race and the California governor's race. For each, the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election.

So, why is the vote count taking so long? California elections often take several days to resolve because it runs largely in a mail-in ballot campaign or election, and it's also the nation's most populous state. But the delay has led President Trump to baselessly claim election fraud.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: They're dropping fast because it's a rigged election. Let me tell you, it's four days, and they aren't even close to coming up with --

KRISTEN WELKER, NBC NEWS WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's how they -- that's how they count the votes in California.

TRUMP: You know why they're doing that? Because they're cheating on the election.

WELKER: There's -- what -- do you have evidence to support that?

TRUMP: All I have to do is look.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Looking not evidence based on my last check of things. Much more on that though in just a bit because we will start things off in Maine where we find CNN's Arlette Saenz who is in Portland, Maine ahead of tomorrow's Senate primary. Arlette, you've been talking with voters -- with Maine voters about Graham Platner. What's the temperature there right now?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner is trying to move past these controversies that have surrounded his campaign. In fact, in his final town hall before the primary, he did not mention the controversies once, and none of the voters who were there asking questions of him asked him anything about those scandals.

But we spent the day and yesterday speaking with many Democratic voters here in this state, some who have expressed unease and concern about those incidents in his past. But they've also argued that much of their focus needs to be on beating Susan Collins in November, and they believe Platner presents the best opportunity to do that. There are others who have told us that they are concerned enough that they may not vote for Platner in November if he becomes the general election nominee. But take a listen to two of the voters with different viewpoints on this matter that we spoke with earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SUSAN GORMAN, MAINE VOTER: I voted early.

SAENZ: OK.

GORMAN: And I voted for Graham Platner.

SAENZ: And why is that?

GORMAN: Enthusiastically, I voted for him. So, there are several reasons. The first reason is that the most important thing in this election is unseating Susan Collins. She has single-handedly dismantled reproductive justice in this country. She has voted with MAGA leaders every single time except when she wants to save face.

RENEE BARTHELMAN, MAINE VOTER: I'm surprised that Platner has gotten as far as he has gotten.

[17:05:01]

And I'm surprised that, given what has come out about him, that he continues to be at the top of the polls the way he is. And I'm a Democrat, but I don't feel like he's going to be my choice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAENZ: Now, women voters could be the deciding factor here in Maine Senate race come November. They made up 59 percent of the electorate back in 2020 when Senator Susan Collins was reelected. But Platner's team is hoping that many of them will look past this controversy to boost him in that general election matchup against Collins. This is one of those states that will be very closely watched as Democrats need to pick up four Senate seats in order to win back the majority.

MATTINGLY: No question about it. It's great reporting. Those soundbites, I think, are so critical to understanding everything that's going on right now there on the ground. Arlette Saenz for us on the ground in Maine, thanks so much.

Now, let's turn over to the California races. CNN's Elex Michaelson is in Los Angeles. Elex, when do we expect to see another batch of votes come through? What's the latest on the mayoral race, the California governor's race? Let people know where things stand right now.

ELEX MICHAELSON, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: So, we expect another batch of votes to come in L.A. County between four and five o'clock Pacific time, so that's seven and eight o'clock Eastern time. Probably going to be a pretty big batch. We're going to have a better sense of where things are at.

Yesterday's batch gave us a change in the leaderboard, which we can bring up onto the screen. Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, remains in first place. But what matters is who's going to be in second place because the top two advanced. And right now, Nithya Raman is in second place. She's ahead of Spencer Pratt by 3,000 votes after yesterday's ballot jam. Now, on election night, she trailed Spencer Pratt by 40,000 votes. So, every day, she has moved up and up and up. We'll see if today's batch, she moves up once again.

Spencer Pratt posting on social media, be patient, folks. He essentially putting out the message that there's more time to count and that she's only leading by a little bit, and encouraging people not to draw to a conclusion. He says here, folks, we're dealing with a fraction of percentage difference. There are still hundreds of thousands of votes outstanding, and L.A. officials have given us three weeks to count. Let's get her done. Spencer Pratt, who was urging a quick count earlier when he was in the lead, now urging people to be patient through the process.

Meanwhile, the governor's race is sort of crystallizing as well. Xavier Becerra took the lead late last week. CNN now projects he's going to get one of the top two positions. So, the question is who's going to be in second place.

Steve Hilton remains in a pretty strong second place. Tom Steyer, the billionaire Democrat, wants to get there. We have not seen the sort of ballot drop numbers that Tom Steyer needs to get there, but not enough yet so far for Hilton to be called as the second place, but getting pretty close there.

It's interesting, the difference between the two of them, Phil. Steve Hilton is everywhere. He's all over T.V. He's doing press conferences. He's doing campaign stops. He's putting out videos on social media. Essentially, acting like he has already won the spot and continuing on until the general election, whereas we have not seen much of anything from Tom Steyer or really from Xavier Becerra since election night, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Elex, I'm really happy that you're here because you're like a grizzled veteran of vote counting in California, which I say --

MICHAELSON: It's a process (ph).

MATTINGLY: -- is the utmost respect. State officials, how are they reacting to the criticism of the slow vote count, obviously, which has gone further than criticism, into Trump basically claiming that there's fraud here? What are they saying right now?

MICHAELSON: Well, they're doing their best to try to combat against misinformation, which is more than a full-time job right now, based off of everything that's being said. I had with me on our show, "The Story Is," on Friday night Dean Logan, who is the registrar-recorder of Los Angeles County. He's in charge of the vote count process. He's overseeing all of this. And I asked him about one of the theories that's out there. The fact that so often we see this late mail-in vote going for the Democrats, especially progressive Democrats, and a lot of folks on the right say that that's suspicious. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAELSON: They feel like the system is rigged. They feel like something is up. What do you say to those people and why is it often swaying one way and not the other?

DEAN LOGAN, REGISTRAR-RECORDER, LOS ANGELES COUNTY: Well, I think you have to look at the demographics of the county and you have to look at the registered voter statistics in L.A. County and in California in general. The Democratic registration rate is significantly higher than Republican. The second largest group of voters are people who don't identify with the party at all. So, I'll leave the speculation of the campaign dynamics to political commentators but logic follows.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[17:09:58]

MICHAELSON: And Phil we've seen these big swings before. Back in 2022, Karen Bass was down by five points on election night, ultimately ended up winning by seven. So, there was a 12-point swing mostly due to those late mail-in ballots.

MATTINGLY: Yes. That was a great interview. Elex Michaelson, thanks so much. And when I say it was a great interview, it's a great show, it's a great show every night, Elex Michaelson.

MICHAELSON: Right.

MATTINGLY: We'll have much more from California tonight on his show. It's called "The Story Is with Elex Michaelson." Look for that at midnight Eastern, 9 p.m. Pacific, right here on CNN.

I'm joined now by CNN's Jamie Gangel and Jeff Zeleny, two of my most wired friends and colleagues, who are going to answer all and definitively, not with any type of hedging, of my pressing political questions.

Jamie, I want to start with Maine. You and I -- I could tell by how you were shaking your head, nodding, that you and I were thinking the same thing as we listened to the sound bites that are -- those great sound bites that Arlette got, that really kind of capture a divide and people trying to work through this in the Democratic primary. What are your Democratic sources saying about what's happening right now with Platner?

JAMIE GANGEL, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: So, no question, this is up to Maine voters. And we saw two of them there, one on each side. But my Democratic sources, the reality is, they feel this is a political headache they did not want. They thought they could possibly beat Susan Collins, turn Maine to the Democrats, which might help them in the Senate. And now, they see problem after problem after problem with Platner, not just one thing.

One source said to me, this is political malpractice. It is campaign 101. You do oppo research on yourself. A campaign is supposed to do that so you know this is coming. That didn't happen here. Now, they feel it could be an unforced error, but the voters get to decide.

MATTINGLY: Jeff, I mean, one thing, like if you're pppo on the Republican side right now, I don't even know how you decide what you're creative is.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Right.

MATTINGLY: There's a lot of options. But it's also interesting to see kind of the shoe on the other foot with Democrats trying to justify or -- you know, that first sound bite, I think, was critical of this gives us -- we have to win. We have to win. This is the best chance to win. Have Democrats kind of changed their tone in terms of what quality of candidates should look like so long as there's an outcome that they might want?

ZELENY: It certainly seems like it. I mean, look, the last era of our politics in last decade, everything is upside down. But in this race specifically, Democrats are most worried about this becoming a referendum on Graham Plattner. It was intended to be a referendum on Susan Collins, who has been in office for so long, her war votes, her Supreme Court votes, her support for abortion rights. She is actually a pro-choice Republican. But she is held in not very high regard by a lot of voters because of her support for a Republican administration.

So, the bottom line here is, yes, politics has changed, but we'll find out if anything matters specifically, if these things actually matter, or by November, will it be old news and will it all be about Donald Trump? That's another thing as well. So, the eye is on the prize. One Democrat told me, she said, excuse me, it's vital to keep our eye on the prize for November. So, that's the question here. But if it's about Platner, that's a problem.

MATTINGLY: Yes. That's a really good point. All right, let's turn to California. Jamie, votes continue to be counted in California. We've all done this a long time. We've all -- especially House races where we've waited, where majorities were at stake. You wait weeks at a time. It's not a great thing.

But the president claiming without evidence that state elections are rigged. Well, a sound from Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, casting some doubt on the election with our colleague, Manu Raju. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Are you saying it's rigged like the president?

MIKE JOHNSON, SPEAKER OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: I'm not saying it's rigged. I'm saying it stinks to high heaven. And everybody knows that. I think California is playing around with

this.

RAJU: But what evidence is there to prove that there was a rigged?

JOHNSON: Look, I don't -- some of these efforts are so diabolical and, so far, upstream that it's impossible to prove. But I think everybody knows instinctively something is wrong here.

(END VIDEO CLIP) MATTINGLY: So diabolical it's impossible to prove, which just sounds like anything my four-year-old does most days.

(LAUGHTER)

GANGEL: Look, he is playing in one way to an audience of one Donald Trump. He is not going to contradict Donald Trump. But the way he's saying it is really disingenuous. It's a distinction without a difference because he is saying it stinks to high heaven. So, he's not using the word rigged, but that's what he's putting out there.

I think the problem here, we all remember, which is this is dangerous, when you undermine faith in the election. Let us not forget, we have seen the result of what happened on January 6th. We do not want that to happen again.

[17:14:59]

ZELENY: And I think the point is, I mean, setting a prelude for a conversation about November if the election does not go the way the president wants. This is some fresh evidence. Remember, he only complains about elections that Republicans do not do well in, never the opposite.

MATTINGLY: Yes. It's such a great point (INAUDIBLE) the best in the business. Thank you, guys, very much. Appreciate it.

Well, next, the breaking news in the "World Lead." Israel and Iran agree to stop strikes against each other. So, is that going to last? And could their aggressive tactics derail President Trump's entire push for peace? Plus, the effect of this conflict on your money. Will gas prices keep dropping? We're bringing in a petroleum expert to get his point of view. Stay with us.

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MATTINGLY: In the "World Lead," Israel and Iran are now suspending military operations against each other after a wave of strikes exchanged overnight. It was the largest escalation in attacks since the ceasefire began in April. Israeli military said it struck military targets in Iran after intercepting missiles from Tehran on Sunday. That followed Israeli strikes earlier on the Iranian proxy group, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Israel now says it is heeding the U.S. call to cease strikes on Iran. President Trump posting this morning that both must immediately stop shooting.

[17:20:01]

The attacks serve as a major new test for President Trump's power with peace negotiations on the line and the Israeli attacks defying Trump's request to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate.

Joining me now is Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer from New Jersey. Congressman, really appreciate your time. President Trump is saying that --

REP. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D), NEW JERSEY: Thanks for having me.

MATTINGLY: -- peace talks are still proceeding in the aftermath of the most recent escalation. But given the divergence, it seems, with how Israel is viewing Hezbollah and how Iran is basically saying Hezbollah has to be part of any agreement, how do you feel like this can reach an outcome at this point?

GOTTHEIMER: Well, I think this is a very tentative truce at best, right? We know that this truce began on April 8th. Obviously, Iran broke it yesterday when they decided to attack Israel after things had, you know, been relatively calm. The discussions themselves, these negotiations have been on again, off again, as you know, these last weeks. So, it doesn't seem like we've been on the verge of a major breakthrough.

Although the president obviously keeps saying that we're close, you know, there haven't been any indications that we're there yet, especially on some of the questions around the strait and nuclear weapons in Iran and what they've committed to and, of course, not a lot of discussion about Iran's ballistic missile program or their drone program or their terror funding program.

So, you've got a lot of questions still out there. Yesterday, I think things were just on the edge of falling apart. It seems like they're back, you know, seems to be back in the box right now, but who knows what's going to happen tonight.

MATTINGLY: What was your sense of -- look, the U.S. and Israel, there has always been consultation. There has long been behind the scenes. Israel seeking U.S., if not approval, then checking to see if there's a red light before some military operations are conducted. I don't know that I recall ever a president coming out and saying publicly that they have vetoed something or attempted to veto unilateral action. What was your read on how all that came out?

GOTTHEIMER: Well, I think presidents throughout history with Israel have backchanneled their opinions about what they would like or not like Israel to do. That has been the case in many conflicts over the years in the Middle East. So, I don't think that's a first.

You know, what you see here, I think, though, is President Trump trying to hold together this truce with scotch tape and bubble gum, right? This is --you've got a lot of -- Iran is not exactly a friend and hasn't been over history. Remember, they're the leading state sponsor of terror. They've attacked us many times, killed Americans, attacked our bases, call us the great Satan. You know, they're (INAUDIBLE) death to America.

So, you know, you're dealing with one party here who clearly doesn't believe in democracy or freedom, and then you're dealing with another party who's a very close ally, Israel, and has been key to fighting terror and obviously the democracy in a region in a tough neighborhood.

But the president, again, is really trying to get out of this and find a way out. The House last week make a very clear statement, both Democrats and some Republicans, with the War Powers Resolution, saying to the president, if you want to continue this, you're going to have to get an authorization of force from us or get a declaration of war, right? So, that, I think, puts even more pressure on finding an outcome here.

So, you've got a lot of questions. You've got gas prices, as you know, over $4 nationally, which is a lot of pressure on people who are dealing with high costs and a lot of uncertainty. And it doesn't appear to be a lot of progress in terms of out of Iran on their nuclear program or terror missile program.

MATTINGLY: Yes, it's a very stalemated moment where I feel like we've been kind of Groundhog Day in this for quite a while now at this point.

GOTTHEIMER: (INAUDIBLE).

MATTINGLY: I want to ask, before I let you go. Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un agreed to -- quote -- "deepen ties" between their nations at a rare summit in North Korea. Just your thoughts given your role in foreign affairs over in the House about that meeting and what maybe it means bigger picture.

GOTTHEIMER: I think this just reinforces and this touches a little bit of what we're talking about in Iran. This touches the -- remember, we can't forget who our top adversaries are and who their best friends are, right? You've got Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia who clearly gotten together against us, against NATO, and stood up -- trying to stand up to our way of life, to freedom and democracy.

And so, I'm not shocked by this. I think China is -- always looks for an opportunity to flex. And so, I'm not surprised. You know, this is a clear -- there's a clear polarity here. We know who our enemies are. Iran is one of them. We shouldn't forget that in any of these discussions.

[17:25:00]

At the end of the day, a nuclear -- that's why the risk of a nuclear Iran is so great.

MATTINGLY: Congressman Josh Gottheimer from New Jersey, always appreciate your time, sir. Thank you.

GOTTHEIMER: Thanks for having me.

MATTINGLY: We're live now at the White House. You can see what's known as "the claw" all ready for Sunday's big UFC fight on the South Lawn. Ahead, the judges ordered today in a lawsuit trying to stop the main event. That's next.

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MATTINGLY: We're back with the "Law and Justice Lead." A live look at the White House. The Trump administration has until tomorrow night to respond to a lawsuit aiming to stop the big UFC fight set for this Sunday, which is also Flag Day and it's also President Trump's birthday.

[17:30:03]

Let's get straight to CNN's Kristen Holmes, live at the White House. Kristen, the immediate reaction over there, what's it been?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I mean, right now they're saying that this is obstructionist, that this is a baseless lawsuit. And I will note, while it is President Trump's birthday, they are saying that this just happens to be the only day that everybody could do, even though it was his idea and it is part of the nation's 250th celebrations for its birthday. It's also seemingly somewhat of a celebration of President Trump's birthday, although they say that's not the case.

Now, on Saturday, this lawsuit was filed by the Public Integrity Project on behalf of two Virginia residents. And they say a couple of things. One, that that giant monstrosity that's being built on the South Lawn, that's going to be the arena that the fight's going to take place in, that that didn't have congressional approval and it needed to, and that it didn't go through any environmental review.

But the main crux of the case is that they are alleging that President Donald Trump, as well as Dana White, the president of UFC, are going to personally benefit and make money off of this event, which is going to be held on these public federal grounds. And they cite the fact that some of these VIP packages are anywhere from 1 million to $1.5 million just to attend the fight. And what the judge is saying now is that they have to respond, the Trump administration at least has to respond by tomorrow night to this lawsuit. They can't just let it sit out there. Specifically, there's a time constraint. This is supposed to happen on Sunday.

MATTINGLY: Yes, that's a great point. It's shocking that something called The Claw hadn't gone through environmental review. I do want to ask you about another matter. Former crypto billionaire Sam Bankman- Fried serving a 25-year prison sentence for orchestrating one of the largest financial frauds effort. I was so struck today when I saw the headline that SPF, as he's known, is asking President Trump for a pardon. I was struck by it because it was like a very overt thing that seemed almost, it was like nostalgic for the old way that it used to work. It usually works in like a much quieter fashion these days. Are you hearing anything about the plausibility of him receiving one at this point?

HOLMES: I mean, it seems incredibly unlikely. President Trump has been asked about this before, before he actually filed for this pardon. President Trump was asked about it. He said he didn't know the guy, and then when it was explained to him in this "New York Times" interview, he said, no, I don't have any plans to do that. Now, it might seem out of the realm of possibility, but it's not quite out of the realm of possibility because President Trump has actually pardoned another person who was in charge of a crypto exchange, the head of Binance, so it wouldn't be that odd.

Although, Bankman-Fried, he was a big Democratic donor. He spoke out against President Trump. Now, of course, changing his tune now for this potential pardon, but it does seem unlikely right now that the White House or the President Trump would grant that pardon.

MATTINGLY: I think we both know a lot of lobbyists who would be happy to take the retainer to make the push as we see how this moves forward. Kristen Holmes, as always, my friend, thank you very much.

HOLMES: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Well, we're now just days away from the kickoff of the World Cup, the headlines to watch for even if you're not into soccer or, as people outside of the U.S. call it, football.

[17:32:59]

And later, tonight's main event, a pretty in-depth finals, CNN went one-on-one with the one and only Spike Lee, what he says about President Trump showing up tonight and his own plans for a fashionable entrance.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our Sports Lead, in just three days, on Thursday, all eyes will be on North America when the first match for the World Cup kicks off in Mexico City. Let's bring in the one and only Roger Bennett, co-host of -- co-host for the Men in Blazers Media Network. He is also the author of "We Are the World (Cup): A Personal History of the World's Greatest Sporting Events." He's also my personal guide. Like when my kid comes home, he's like, why is everybody wearing soccer jerseys? I'm saying, let's just go to Roger's social media feed where he inevitably has a great interview with soccer and explains all of this stuff to my children and me as the dumb American who every once in a while engages in the soccer space. Roger, I want to start big picture and then I have a lot of U.S. questions. Why does this matter? What does this mean to the world?

ROGER BENNETT, FOUNDER & CEO, MEN IN BLAZERS MEDIA NETWORK: Yes, the Super Bowl is the greatest showcase of American sports, 200 million people watch that, 5 billion people around the globe watch the World Cup. It's like a global eclipse that sweeps the entire planet for 39 straight days. And it's going to emanate out of Mexico and Canada, but from 11 cities across the United States. And I hope, Phil, it's going to bring the world a sense of unity for the entirety of the tournament that we all really need right now.

MATTINGLY: You know, to that point, the geopolitics are in the background of events like this, but in the midst of the ongoing war conflict in Iran, how do geopolitics play historically into this tournament?

BENNETT: The joy of the World Cup is that it contains multitudes, as Emerson would say. When two teams take the field in World Cup play, their nation's histories, their nation's politics, their nation's cultures take the field alongside them. That's what gives it just a multi-layered narrative. That's what makes it a modern Greek epic poem that's played out live with the world watching. So Iran are in this tournament. They're going to play in Los Angeles before the biggest diaspora of Iranian-Americans, which is going to be fascinating, even more complex.

If they come second in their group, Phil, and the United States come second in their group, the two are slated to play each other in the first knockout round. So the levels of meaning, the levels of politics, all of it played out by 22 men chasing a soccer ball wearing polyester. It's crazy.

[17:40:01]

MATTINGLY: It really is. OK, on the U.S. side, one of my favorite moments of sportsdom was Landon Donovan, Algeria in extra time back in 2010. Like, I'm not a massive soccer fan, but World Cup, the jersey is on. I'm ready to rock and roll. I saw you talking to Clint Dempsey. There seemed to be a little bit of optimism about a team that's had kind of a rough go of it after a lot of optimism coming out of 2022. What should people be thinking about the U.S. squad this year?

BENNETT: Well, for your audience, don't let my accent fool you. I adore this nation. Root for it like Kenny Powers loves America. We've watched this team from 1994 onwards. You know, dream, big dreams. Our women win things. Our men have won one knockout game in the entirety of our nation's history, which is hard to fathom for a nation that's put a man on the moon and given the world a cronut.

So we qualified by virtue of being hosts. We've just played a steady diet of friendlies. To try and work out where we are with this very talented young team full of possibility is as easy as saying this NFL team is going to win the Super Bowl after just watching preseason exhibition games. They dream big dreams, but so do the other 47 teams who are landing in North America. Everybody's dreaming the American dream right now.

MATTINGLY: I tell you what, having watched the entire German-U.S. friendly, there was a strike that I thought would have been in any highlight reel of any season from the U.S. side where I thought, oh, wow, I'm bought in. I'm all in. It's a great documentary on HBO Max, "U.S. Against the World." Highly suggest people watch it.

The ability to mention Kenny Powers and cronuts in the same interview, like you are a man. You talk about layers and multitudes, my friend. Roger Bennett, I appreciate you, my friend. Thank you very much.

BENNETT: You're a beautiful human being. Go, go, USA. Courage.

MATTINGLY: Agreed. Thanks so much.

Well, gas prices are going down, but for how long? One of the nation's top industry watchers is here to share what gives him new concerns. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:46:33] MATTINGLY: In our Money Lead, a steady drop on gas prices. AAA says the national average is now $4.16 a gallon. That's down nearly 40 cents since last month, but still $1.18 higher than before the war with Iran started back in February. Some experts warning the downward trend may be short-lived. I want to bring in Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute.

Mike, really appreciate you coming in. To start, and as you know well, there's way more that I want to get into with you than we have time for, but do you want to start with gas prices? Because that's what the audience is probably looking around wondering, all right, is this downward trend going to stick? The President was asked about this in his NBC interview. He said this, take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KRISTEN WELKER, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: Are gas prices going higher or have they peaked?

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They're going to come low, very low. They're going to go lower than they were before.

WELKER: Have they peaked?

TRUMP: As soon, well, it depends. I mean, it depends where the war goes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: A reasonable answer in terms of what may happen in the future for the right now, as long as this conflict remains at the stage that it's in, what should people be thinking right now?

MIKE SOMMERS, PRESIDENT & CEO, AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: Well, first of all, we're in month three of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. That means about 20 percent of the world's flow of oil has been essentially shut down for over three months.

The reason we haven't seen a significant increase in gasoline prices is because of American production here in the United States. It is because that we produce more than 13 million barrels of oil every single day that the United States has been relatively insulated from the shock that we've seen elsewhere throughout the world.

MATTINGLY: You make a really good point. I think it's important for people to understand the production, the refinery capability, what the U.S. has done is serving as almost the linchpin of a triage effort around the world over the course of the last 100 plus days. There's been nothing short of extraordinary. However, there's not a ton of new production coming online. Inventory draws are significant, both on the commercial side and on the strategic petroleum reserves side. How durable is this over time?

SOMMERS: Inventory draws are significant. We're seeing significant inventory draws, particularly in the strategic petroleum reserve, but you're also seeing draws in commercial inventories as well throughout the world. This should be very concerning to every American consumer because as those inventories go down and production isn't increased, you're going to start seeing a significant impact at the pump. That's going to happen over time, but again, it's because of American production that we haven't seen those same price surges that you've seen in other parts of the world.

MATTINGLY: We talked about the SPR. Again, the drawdowns have been significant, particularly over the course of the last couple of weeks. You can check API's weekly statistical report, which is usually a good helpful leading indicator of things. What level does that get to where you start saying, OK, we have a real problem here with the strategic petroleum reserve, not just reserves in general?

SOMMERS: Well, we're raising alarm bells right now. We're at about 350 million barrels left in the strategic petroleum reserve. You have to have about 20 percent of that left for it to be operational for our system to operate. So we're getting to levels where we're starting to be concerned. I will say though, you're starting to see production increase, not just in the United States, but in other places as well. We're seeing some green shoots in the oil patch. Rig counts have been going up consistently week on week.

You're seeing more potential production in Alaska, in the Permian Basin, and in other parts of the United States as well as a consequence of higher prices. But consumers should be very concerned that as inventories continue to draw down, I'll give you a great example of this. We've already seen a draw of gasoline inventories of 38 million barrels. That is almost the entire amount of the inventory that we use in the summer driving season. So we're starting to get very concerned. The only thing that we can do in the short term to fix this problem is to get this Strait open as quickly as possible.

[17:50:16]

MATTINGLY: Short of that, I think one of the biggest questions anybody who's followed this has had is, all right, why aren't oil futures soaring right now? Why are they kind of lingering around $100 below for the last couple of weeks as well? What is your sense of that? It doesn't seem to make a lot of sense given the fact we're in the midst of the biggest oil shock in recorded history.

SOMMERS: We are still very concerned about what those inventories are, but there are a couple of key reasons why you haven't seen the shock that I think anybody would have anticipated if you'd shut down the Strait of Hormuz for three months. There are a couple of things going on here. First of all, China has cut their oil imports by 50 percent since the beginning of this crisis.

They have tremendous strategic petroleum reserves themselves. No one actually knows what that number is, but they think it's over a billion barrels of strategic petroleum reserve in China. So China has essentially left significant amounts of oil on the market that they previously had been importing. That's one key reason. So you don't truly know how much oil is out there right now.

So you've also seen a significant demand repression going on in Southeast Asia in particular. So they're putting in rationing in place. They're telling people not to go to work. So their energy use is going down also. So it's really an issue of, we didn't know how much inventory was out there. China not importing as much as they previously had and rationing going on throughout the rest of the world. You're not seeing it here in the United States. Again, that's a reflection of increased American production.

MATTINGLY: Yes, there's no question about that. The China piece of this is fascinating and about as opaque as it gets, but a huge part of it nonetheless. Mike Sommers, really appreciate you coming in.

SOMMERS: Great to be with you, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Let's turn to our Business Leaders series where we talk to small business owners about how Trump's tariffs are impacting them. In November, we introduced you to Sarah Wells Bags, a line of postpartum bags and apparel for working mothers. After the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Trump's tariffs, Sarah is now struggling to cash in on her promised tariff refund. Sarah is here with me now. I really appreciate you coming on. And I think I should probably kind of flip the terminology, cash in, like this was your money. You are now entitled to that money. The process to get that money, walk people through kind of on a top line what that's been like.

SARAH WELLS, CEO & FOUNDER, SARAH WELLS BREAST PUMP BAGS: Absolutely, so the Supreme Court back in February now said these tariffs were illegal. You get your money back with interest, I might add. And, you know, this was a first time experience, I think, for the government to issue this level of refunds. So we expected a little bit of work to get there. But we are now how many months later in June and I don't have my full refund back. It took creating a government account, which has been cumbersome.

And many small businesses like mine have never had an account like this before. So vocabulary and acronyms, we're not used to navigate it. And then once we got that up and running and put our application in, even if it says approved, there's been no real timeframe, no real indication of when you might get that money. So we're still living in this world of unpredictability and uncertainty. And it's been really hard.

MATTINGLY: How much money do you estimate your business has paid for tariffs up to this point? How much do you expect to get back?

WELLS: Yes, so we have about $20,000 we expect in refund for my small business. I've received half of it back. I got that really quickly. That actually felt like an early promising sign. Maybe it was all going to happen. And now I'm months after that first tariff refund and nothing and no indication of when the rest will come. And, you know, I've been saying to folks, half of my refund doesn't make my business whole.

I need everything back. Really, we're already going to be so far behind because we were out of this all of last year and lost a lot of sales, not having the inventory we needed. But we at least need to get the rest of this refund back. And I would honestly tell you, I'm kind of one of the lucky ones to get anything at this point. A lot of my colleagues have received no refunds yet or are even kind of locked out of the system and haven't even been able to get their applications put in.

MATTINGLY: Which I should just say as an outsider, it's like a very strange frame of mind. Like you aren't lucky that you got the thing that you're entitled to based on the Supreme Court. You're sitting next to one of your bags. The ability to plan, to be able to produce amazing materials like that, what has this done for how you think through your business in the months, quarters, years ahead?

WELLS: Yes, so last year really, I ran out of my best-selling inventory like this bag. I just couldn't afford the tariff. I wasn't going to take a mortgage out on my home to pay the tariff. I wasn't willing to take that level of risk. So we really stopped ordering because we just couldn't get the cash together to pull our goods out of port. And in that period of time, I probably lost about a half a million dollars in sales not having the products that the new moms wanted and needed. And we're still catching up from that.

So we're trying to bring new inventory in. But right now we're still stuck without our refunds and we keep hearing every day that new tariffs might be coming in July. So there's no planning for this. What will my products cost in the months to come is still a huge question mark as much as it really was last year. And you're right that the Supreme Court said at least you're going to get that money back while the rest of all these tariffs are challenged in court. And that still hasn't happened. It feels like the hole is getting dug deeper and deeper.

[17:55:13]

MATTINGLY: Yes, progressively as the months kind of compound. Real quick, where can people find that bag?

WELLS: SarahWellsBags.com.

MATTINGLY: Really appreciate you coming in and sharing your story. It's really important.

Well, live pictures from inside Madison Square Garden. You see the pregame activity on the court. Coming up, the extra security ahead of President Trump's arrival.

Plus, CNN's conversation with the world's biggest Knicks fan, not Timothee Chalamet, it's Spike Lee. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly. Jake Tapper is on assignment. This hour, President Trump is getting ready to head to New York City for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, where there is a very visible enhanced security presence outside of Madison Square Garden. We're going inside the world's most famous arena in just moments.

[18:00:06]

Plus, Jeffrey Epstein's longtime personal assistant, Lesley Groff --