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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Supreme Court Upholds Birthright Citizenship In Loss For Trump; GOP Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ) Says Depression Diagnosis Kept Him Away From Congress; Democratic Socialists Look to Extend Wins Tonight; Inside The Rise And Controversies Behind Barstool Sports; String Of Alligator Attacks In Florida, One Woman Dead. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired June 30, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[18:00:00]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

The Lead tonight, a big finale to end the term of the U.S. Supreme Court, three consequential decisions issued today. First, a big loss for President Trump, a 6-3 vote with a mix of three conservative and three liberal justices shutting down his efforts to end the birthright citizenship for millions. This afternoon, an unsatisfied Trump announced on Truth Social, quote, Congress should start today to work on ending it.

Also, following a 6-3 split, this one along ideological lines, Trump touted what he calls a big win after the court ruled that states can bar transgender students from playing on girls' athletic teams in schools.

The court also may have made a sizable impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Another big ruling today lifted a Watergate-era cap on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates.

Sarah Isgur, editor at the SCOTUSblog and host of the Advisory Opinions podcast joins us now. She also wrote the book, "Last Branch Standing". Sarah, thanks for joining us.

Let's get right to the birthright ruling. But actually, before we do that, I want to talk to you about something that we haven't talked about on the show yet, the campaign finance ruling, which lifted this Watergate-era cap on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates.

Democrats think that this is a huge win for the GOP because Republicans generally have outraised Democrats this election cycle. Do you think this ruling could factor into the midterms?

SARAH ISGUR, EDITOR, SCOTUSBLOG: Not in that way. I don't think this will have a particularly partisan win or loss for either side. Where it will matter, though, is the parties themselves. We've actually been living in the nadir of power of political parties for 20, 25 years at this point, and that gives rise to candidates taking the title of R and D next to their names while not actually believing in the policy platforms of the two parties. This has an opportunity to potentially reinvigorate political parties as a real force in American politics, and maybe less force to so-called super PACs.

TAPPER: New York Times Columnist David French, who's a frequent guest on your podcast, he posted on X, quote, Donald Trump took some huge losses this term, birthright citizenship, tariffs, Fed, National Guard. His biggest win, Slaughter, that's allowing not allowing him to -- or, I'm sorry, allowing him to fire an FTC commissioner, was in line with pre-Trump conservatism. When he reached for authoritarianism, he lost time and time again. So, French's idea is like powerful executive, that stuff Trump won, but that was Republican before Trump. And authoritarianism, the court held him back from that.

I don't know if you agree with that. What has this term taught you about the court's decision-making?

ISGUR: The last ten terms or so of the Supreme Court have been a real repudiation of government by executive order. We saw that in the Biden administration with the vaccine mandate, eviction moratorium, student loan debt forgiveness, Clean Power Plan. We've seen it in the Trump administration with tariffs, Alien Enemies Act, federalizing the National Guard, and now birthright citizenship.

That has been consistent across administrations where the court is saying, no, these are Congress questions. You will actually have to compromise, find bipartisan solutions if you want to get things done on a permanent basis. We are not going to have this pendulum swing back and forth every four years with presidents trying to be legislator and executive.

TAPPER: Let's drill down on the birthright case. Chief Justice Roberts, who voted against Trump, says, quote, citizenship then and now was the right to have rights, to freely participate in our political community. The framers of the 14th Amendment extended that promise to every free-born person in this land, unquote.

Recent polling shows broad support for birthright citizenship. I guess my question is, are you surprised this wasn't a 9-0 ruling?

ISGUR: I'm surprised that it wasn't 7-2 or something a little bit more, but, again, we had six justices say that President Trump can't do this through executive order. Where I think the questions remained for the four justices that did say that maybe the 14th Amendment allows this, was something maybe more on, like, birthright tourism, the idea that someone's here for a couple weeks to have a child and then has every intention of leaving with that child, that maybe the 14th Amendment didn't encompass that.

But there is this long-running debate between the conservatives and the liberals and other conservatives even on this court about the purpose, the history of the 14th Amendment. So, in that sense, the birthright citizenship case wasn't about immigration.

[18:05:00] It was actually much more in line with the Calais case about voting rights or the SFFA case about affirmative action. That's about what is this equal protection clause, what is the citizenship clause, what is this post-Civil War amendment supposed to act and do.

TAPPER: All right. Sarah Isgur, thanks so much, always great to have you on the show.

Joining us now, Republican Congressman from Ohio Mike Turner. He's on the House Oversight Committee and the House Armed Services Committee. Thanks so much for being here. Good to see you, Congressman.

I want to have you listen to Speaker Johnson when he found out that the Supreme Court had upheld birthright citizenship against Trump's wishes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA): It certainly is time for us to do everything that's possible. I don't know what that is.

I think it's clearly an issue that merits the attention of Congress. I don't know what the remedy is, how to define it, or the timeline.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: So, he says it certainly is time for us to do everything that is possible. I mean, President Trump posted on social media he wants Congress to start working on ending it today. Is this high on the priority list for you? Is it high on the priority list for your voters?

REP. MIKE TURNER (R-OH): Well, I'm very comfortable with the court's ruling, and I'm not surprised by it being a lawyer and having looked at the case. I do think, and you had asked the question, you know, why isn't this a 9-0 ruling, and I think Sarah's answer was an excellent answer and that there are issues of abuses.

And I think the issue of abuses that when those circumstances are given to either yourself or even the average American, that raises the question of, you know, well, how should those, as she had raised the issue, you know, of birth tourism, how do we regulate those issues to ensure that people aren't abusing the issue of birthright citizenship? And I think that is something that needs to be debated and discussed.

The decision, though, I think of the Court, it was certainly was not unexpected, and I think it certainly is right. The 14th Amendment is certainly a very important one. I think, you know, the quote that you had of the chief justice's statement is an important one. People look to the birthright citizenship as, you know, the commencement of their rights as American citizens.

TAPPER: Yes. On the other big decision today on allowing states, such as Ohio, to ban trans students from playing sports with girls or women, what was your reaction to that ruling? TURNER: This is another decision that is not a surprise because, you know, again, when you look at issues that, that where there's an attempt to regulate issues, you look at, you know, issues of common sense. And they cited, you know, concerns of safety, concerns of really protecting rights.

And in this issue, I think there are a number of reasons why these laws should be upheld, and I think the Supreme Court did the right thing.

TAPPER: Last week, the Supreme Court ruled to end TPS, temporary protected status, for hundreds of thousands of Haitians. I don't need to tell you Ohio has a huge Haitian population, particularly --

TURNER: In my district.

TAPPER: -- in your -- Springfield, in your district. You had the Republican governor, Mike DeWine, call the ruling a mistake, citing economic impacts to the state. Obviously, according to the U.S. State Department, Haiti, remains incredibly unsafe. What do you think about this? Do you agree with Governor DeWine? Do you agree with Stephen Miller?

TURNER: Well, I certainly, you know, understand the court's ruling because the court is saying that the president has this authority. I do think, though, that, as Secretary Mullins said when he was on your show, that there are individuals who are in my community who are contributing. They're contributing, they have jobs, and that needs to be honored. They have made the transition into our communities and become part of the fabric of our community.

TAPPER: And they were here legally also.

TURNER: And they were here legally. these are not illegals that have come here.

And also as the governor said, as I have said, as, you know, other members of Congress, Mike Lawler has said, others who have individuals like this in their community, where they have come from the basis in which this temporary status is granted is in part because the place that they have come from is dangerous. Haiti remains a dangerous place.

So, I think that there is certainly both where they have come from and the manner in which they've been integrated into society there, many of them are working. Secretary Mullins says of those that are working and are contributing to society, I think certainly that they should be looked upon differently.

TAPPER: Elena Kagan said she disagreed obviously with the ruling and said that President Trump's argument was based in racism, and she cited a whole bunch of things that President Trump said. You probably are familiar with quite a few of them, eating the dogs, eating the cats, the bringing with the maids, et cetera, et cetera.

TURNER: Which by the way is absolutely, completely and totally untrue. TAPPER: So -- right. But Justice Alito said that he did not see any overt racism in what President Trump said about eating the dogs and eating the cats. What do you make of that?

TURNER: Well, it was clearly just incorrect information. But --

TAPPER: But beyond that, do you think there's --

TURNER: Regardless of the fact that it was incorrect information. And the president's decision, though, is what the court has before it.

[18:10:02]

TAPPER: Right.

TURNER: And the court is making a decision that the president has is within his authority, and he's not making the decision based upon racism, and I believe that the Court has made the -- is understanding his authority and the execution of that authority. I don't think he's making the decision based on racism.

However, I must say that in this discussion, it has been incredibly saddening the number of people who've made absolutely racist statements about the Haitian population, about the immigrant populations, about the populations that have come in under, you know, these types of programs, and it is saddening both I think, you know, to the immigration discussion and to this discussion.

TAPPER: I want to turn to President Trump's election bill, known as the Save America Act. Speaker Johnson's clearly struggling to get the votes he needs. You and several other Republicans voted no on a rule that would have attached the Save America Act to the defense bill, where it probably would've been doomed anyway because there's no way the Senate's going to do this. The Senate doesn't have the votes, even 50 votes to support the president's election bill.

Have you heard directly from Speaker Johnson trying to get you to change your vote?

TURNER: Well, my vote wasn't about that. We actually have -- there is a group that is actively trying to get the Save America Act incorporated into the defense bill. There are a group of us who have a -- are working with the White House and with the speaker on working to get a group of Delphi salaried retirees who've had their pensions taken by the government during the G.M. bankruptcy.

TAPPER: Oh, okay.

TURNER: And the White House supports restoring those pensions, and that pension restoration program and plan was supposed to be incorporated into this bill, and it was not in the Rules Committee. And so we didn't support this rule because this rule was supposed to include --

TAPPER: The pensions. TURNER: -- the pensions and restoring these pensions. It's also something that the White House has signaled as part of the supplemental. But this is an injustice. The Delphi salaried retirees were the only people in the General Motors bankruptcy that had their pensions taken by the government. Never in history the government reached in and signaled a selected one group to take their pensions, and we think they deserve justice.

TAPPER: Well, good for you for fighting for them. All right, thanks so much, Congressman Mike Turner from Ohio. Thank you.

Another major decision from the Supreme Court expanded President Trump's ability to fire some federal officials, some legal experts say my next guest could be one of the president's next targets.

Stick with us.

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[18:15:00]

TAPPER: In our Law and Justice Lead, the Supreme Court on Monday dealt President Trump a setback, but also handed him a major win expanding his presidential powers. In a 5-4 vote, justices rejected President Trump's attempt to immediately fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the Fed's independence and the need for cause.

But in a separate case, the court overturned a nearly century-old precedent expanding the president's power to fire officials even at independent federal agencies, agencies set up by the Congress to be free of political interference. President Trump celebrated on Truth Social, writing, 90 years of precedent has been completely and unequivocally overruled, greatly increasing presidential power at a time when it's most needed. It's funny, except for at a time when it's most needed, that could be the words of a critic.

Here to discuss, a member of one of those purportedly independent agencies, although it's been taken off their website, Anna Gomez, the sole Democrat on the Federal Communications Commission.

First, what was your reaction to the justices' decision in the Slaughter case, which made it easier for President Trump to fire an FCC commissioner?

ANNA GOMEZ, FCC COMMISSIONER: Yes. I mean, it is a shame. Congress set up these agencies to be independent so that they could protect American consumers, not be subject to the political whims of one person. And I worry about the consequences of what's going to happen to the future of these independent agencies. Are these commissioners, are these members going to temper what they do in order to protect consumers, in order to, for me, to protect the freedom of speech out of fear of being fired because of a policy decision?

TAPPER: Legal experts say this ruling could put your tenure at the FCC as a Democratic commissioner on the FCC in immediate question. How often do you check your email to see if you've been fired? GOMEZ: I check it every morning and I literally say to myself, am I going into work today? But as long as I'm still there, I'm still going to speak out for consumers, for innovation, and for the freedom of speech.

TAPPER: If this ruling removes the buffer between the White House and independent agencies, what safeguards are left? I mean, can the FCC operate with anything remotely resembling independence? What do you expect happens next?

GOMEZ: Well, I think it's important that we underscore that the Supreme Court said that their ruling was limited to the Federal Trade Commission. As you noted in the intro, they did talk about the special role of the Federal Reserve in the economy. Well, I would argue that the FCC's role in protecting the freedom of speech is as important to guard from political interference.

TAPPER: On the matter of political interference, your chairman, Brendan Carr, and President Trump have been supporting the Paramount acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, which, full disclosure, is the parent company of CNN. There are -- we're hearing word from the attorney general of California, Rob Bonta, from officials in the U.K. about their concerns. How much do you think that actually could be an impediment to Paramount acquiring Warner Brothers Discovery?

GOMEZ: We have seen massive consolidation in the media marketplace, and there are several dangers to that. First of all, the loss of a diversity of viewpoints, and particularly with this administration demanding that the only viewpoint that should exist is the one that it agrees with, is really problematic.

[18:20:00]

But there's also the effect on consumers. These consolidations lead to higher prices on consumers.

Finally, as far as the FCC's concerned, we will have a role in approving the foreign ownership that is involved in this transaction. And what Paramount has put before the FCC is a massive amount of investment from the wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

Now, Saudi Arabia, our own intelligence agencies noted, murdered a reporter.

TAPPER: A Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi.

GOMEZ: A Washington Post columnist.

TAPPER: Yes.

GOMEZ: So, right now, if this transaction is allowed to move forward, there will be up to 50 percent indirect foreign ownership from these countries, and that's going to affect the content. Because even if it's direct or, you know, non-voting, voting, you don't think that if you get $10 billion from another government that you're not going to pick up the phone and talk to them about the content of your broadcasts? That's really problematic.

And when Paramount filed with the FCC to ask for this transaction to be approved by the FCC, it asked for up to 100 percent foreign ownership. So, it's really problematic for all of these reasons.

TAPPER: Yes. And just a reminder, MBS has blood on his hands for ordering the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, according to our intelligence agencies.

Anna Gomez thank you so much. I appreciate it.

After missing multiple months of work, Congressman Tom Kean Jr. finally returned to Capitol Hill and finally explained why he's been gone. He shared that he's been suffering from severe depression, requiring a long-term stay in a hospital. What else the congressman is sharing about his diagnosis, that's next.

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[18:25:00]

TAPPER: In our Health Lead, severe depression. That is what Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey says kept him in the hospital and away from Capitol Hill since early March. During his announcement earlier today on the floor of the House of Representatives, Congressman Kean acknowledged the millions of Americans who struggle with this illness.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. TOM KEAN JR. (R-NJ): Many do so quietly. Many do so alone. Many do so while carrying burdens that the rest of us never see. And to them, I would say, asking for help is not a weakness. It is a strength.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Dr. Andrea Bonior is with us now to explain just how crippling depression can be. Thanks so much for being here. Our viewers, I'm sure, remember you from having held all of our hands collectively during COVID. Thanks for being here.

So, depression can take a lot of forms and the toll it takes on people also varies a lot. What are the mental and physical potential impacts of depression?

DR. ANDREA BONIOR, LICENSED CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGIST: Oh, they're tremendous. I mean, we know that, physically, depression is a killer. You know, obviously, there's a heightened suicide risk. But also over time, it's more likely that people who've been suffering from severe depression will have cardiovascular issues, immune system issues, inflammation.

TAPPER: Really, the body, the brain chemistry has that effect on them?

BONIOR: Absolutely. They're one and the same, right? We're learning so much about inflammatory markers and how psychiatric they can be. So, it's very much a physical illness in addition to, obviously, an emotional and cognitive illness. And it can be absolutely debilitating for relationships, for one's professional life, and, again, for one's lifespan too.

TAPPER: So, obviously, depression is something that people can hide successfully from co-workers. But they can even hide it from close friends and family members. What are some of the warning signs people should look out for?

BONIOR: Yes. So, we always want to be looking out for changes in behavior. So, a lot of times the changes can go in different directions. Some people start eating a lot more, sleeping a lot more. Some people stop sleeping altogether, or they lose weight because they're not eating anymore. For a lot of men in particular, sometimes depression can look like irritability. It can look like rage. It can turn into increased substance abuse.

So, the key is thinking about whether or not somebody's had marked changes in behavior. And, again, some people kind of overcompensate. They put on the smile, and everything seems kind of robotic. They're really good at playing the part because they don't want to be vulnerable. They don't want people to know they're struggling. Sometimes, ironically, that can be a change that's worth noting as well.

TAPPER: Congressman Kean also noted today that there is, quote, no timeline for recovery, only the work of getting better one day at a time. How can people get help beyond therapy? What treatment options are available?

BONIOR: There is so much hope right now. There are new types of psychiatric and psychological treatments being developed all the time. There are all kinds of new classes of medications. There are treatments, like transcranial magnetic stimulation. There's a lot of excitement about the psychedelics and infusions of ketamine and the like. This is really an area where there's a lot of good research going on. And so I would say there's always hope. There's always something new.

And for severe depression, it obviously is very life-threatening. It sounds like the congressman may have been hospitalized for this. And, again, that's a situation where it's very much crucial that somebody is under 24/7 care when they are potentially in danger.

TAPPER: Well, when you say that, is that only a reference to suicide?

BONIOR: It can be a reference to suicide, but also just sometimes self-care can get so poor that there can be complete neglect. And when somebody is really not functioning on a daily basis, they're not sleeping at all, you know, severe, severe insomnia or any kind of substance related disorder, that can sometimes send the body into such a crisis mode that almost, you know, people can die from seizures or things like that, depending on whether or not their nervous system has escalated to the point of not having had self-care. TAPPER: Well, let's hope that Congressman Kean's speech on the floor of the House today can help some other people too by hopefully removing some of the stigma.

[18:30:06]

Dr. Andrea Bonior, always great to have you, thank you so much.

And, remember, if you or someone you know is having any mental health challenges, please contact the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline. That's 988. You can call it or you can text it. I promise you, there is help for you. There is love for you.

It is the final hours of voting in Colorado. A young Democratic socialist is trying to oust a 15-term Democratic congresswoman. Our panel's going to weigh in next.

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TAPPER: Our Politics Lead now, polls in Colorado close tonight at 9:00 Eastern, and moderate Democrats are anxiously waiting to see whether establishment candidates can beat back a wave of progressive challengers, like the wave that swept New York last week.

In Denver, 29-year-old Democratic socialist Melat Kiros is challenging 15-term Democratic Congresswoman Diana DeGette. It's a race that could provide some insight into the party's direction ahead of November's midterms.

[18:35:00]

Let's jump right in with the panel. CNN Political Commentator Karen Finney, president and executive editor of The Daily Signal, Robert Bluey, and Kyle Clark joins us. He is an anchor and managing editor of KUSA-TV in Denver.

And, Kyle, you recently interviewed Melat Kiros. There was a -- well, you made a lot of news in that interview. One of the notes one of the things that got some attention was when Kiros didn't say that anti- Semitism is what had motivated the deadly firebombing attack on that Jewish community rally in Boulder. Here's part of her answer where she wouldn't say it was anti-Semitism. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MELAT KIROS (D), COLORADO CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: To me, it was a loss of innocent life, regardless of what the perpetrator had in mind when he took those lives matters less to me than, you know, our responsibility to making sure that people understand that even in the face of these kinds of disagreements, that violence is not the answer.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Why was that answer so, controversial and what else surprised you from that interview? KYLE CLARK, KUSA-TV, ANCHOR AND MANAGING EDITOR: Well, I think that the firebombing of elderly Jews in Boulder has been widely condemned as an act of anti-Semitic violence. So, the fact that Melat Kiros would not say that was troubling for a lot of people in Colorado.

Colorado's First Congressional District, Denver, has the largest Jewish population of any of the eight Congressional districts in Colorado. And Melat Kouros is a true believer in Democratic socialism and all of its dogma. And related to that conversation, she said that not only does she want to see an arms embargo against Israel, offensive and defensive weapons, but she was glad to see Palantir leave Colorado, and she would like to see Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor, which is a large employer here, leave as well.

TAPPER: Well, fascinating stuff. Karen, obviously, the Democratic socialists are ascendant. They bring a lot of energy. They bring a lot of passion. They also bring establishment Democrats a lot of agita. What do you think the reaction will be if Kiros wins?

KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It shouldn't be much of anything. I mean, look, rather than focusing on the labels, because we're talking about two people in blue New York who, one, not --

TAPPER: Three.

FINNEY: A third who is a --

TAPPER: No, not -- okay, fair enough. Fair enough, okay.

FINNEY: Don't make me cite --

TAPPER: I apologize. I apologize.

FINNEY: No. But, look, I'm more interested in what is it that voters are trying to tell us. What is it? And are those candidates, are they able to out-organize and do a better job of mobilizing their voters to turn out in these midterm elections?

I think too often, particularly we've seen it's also a matter of anti- incumbency. And so what I've been sort of, you know, encouraging Democrats is don't take the bait about labels, but pay attention. What is it that voters are saying? They're saying they're impatient. They're saying this Congress, led by Republicans, hasn't gotten anything done. They're looking for relief on costs, on housing. They're angry about the war. And are you someone who is speaking to those concerns?

What's interesting in this particular race is DeGette has actually been -- you know, this issue has been -- this has been an issue in that district. I think she's actually been pretty good on the issue, I mean, from the perspective of her constituents. So, it'll be interesting to see if she doesn't win or if it's close, what were the issues that made it that way?

TAPPER: Do you think this is kind of just the -- I've heard people compare this to the Tea -- what the Republicans went through with the Tea Party, young, passionate, sometimes single-issue people taking on the establishment and the taking on of the establishment is part of the attraction. Is that what's going on here? It's kind of like a chai party or something?

ROBERT BLUEY, PRESIDENT AND EXECUTIVE EDITOR, THE DAILY SIGNAL: Well, I do think it's important to look at the issues and the platform in which these candidates support, and certainly the Democratic Socialists of America have quite a radical platform in which they call for the abolition of the Constitution and radical changes to our U.S. government.

But to your point about the Tea Party, I mean, we still see the effects of that today, right? Senator Mike Lee from Utah upended an establishment candidate in Senator Bennett, and look at what he's doing on the floor of the Senate now in pushing the Save America Act, and he has the president of the United States behind him.

So, I do think it's possible for some of these candidates to gravitate towards some issues that really latch on and cause the attention of the base in the Democrat Party to maybe get them to change some of the positions that they've taken in the past. So, it'll be quite interesting to see if they have enough members who can assemble that block like, the House Freedom Caucus or like those Senate conservatives.

TAPPER: Yes, exactly. Exactly. And, Kyle, this anti-establishment sentiment could also impact tonight's Democratic primary to replace the current term-limited governor, Jared Polis. Senator Michael Bennet is facing State Attorney General Phil Weiser. You just spoke with both candidates. What are their closing messages, and are they talking to voters who are upset with the establishment wing of the Democratic Party?

CLARK: They absolutely are, Jake. And it's interesting because A.G. Weiser is obviously an incumbent Democrat. Both of these guys are considered to be centrist Democrats for the most part.

[18:40:03]

But Weiser is benefiting from the anti-Washington feel simply because he's a statewide elected official, and Bennet is in Washington.

And in terms of their closing message, what Weiser is telling voters is, you can have us both. You can have me as governor, and you can have Bennet in the Senate. It even rhymes. Whereas Bennett's made pretty clear he hates his current job in Washington, he wants to come home to Colorado, but if that happens, he will be appointing his own successor, some mystery person, and that's been a concern for some Democrats.

TAPPER: Very interesting.

Let's turn to the U.S. Senate race in Texas. Kind of a shocking New York Times/Siena poll has Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico currently tied, 47 points apiece among likely Texas voters, with only 6 percent saying they have not made their minds up.

When you dig into the crosstabs, Paxton's net unfavorable is 50 percent, Talarico's is 39 percent. Paxton's net favorable is 39 percent, Talarico's 46 percent.

Karen, you know, Democrats have been whistling past the graveyard on Texas for a long, long, long time.

FINNEY: Yes.

TAPPER: Is it actually going to happen? Could it happen?

FINNEY: Well, of course it could. It always could. I mean, nobody thought Donald Trump was going to be president, and look at here, here he is twice now.

So, look, I think for Talarico, the intellectually honest answer is it depends on couple of things. Number one, does he put together the kind of winning coalition and turn those voters out that it would take to win? And that is a, you know, a rainbow coalition, if you will, of independents, probably some moderate Republicans, of African American voters, of Latino voters in different -- and put that coalition together in different parts of the state, and then turn them out. We'll have to see if he's able to do that.

But, look, I think the other thing is, you know, we're talking about extremism. I mean, you know, Donald Trump isn't exactly a friend to the Constitution, and thankfully was rebuked today by the Supreme Court. Ken Paxton, you know, the question for the voters is going to be, do you want another person in Washington who's going to enable things like the Save Act, which is pretty unpopular, or do you want somebody who's going to stand up for you? That's going to be part of the question.

TAPPER: Do you wish that Cornyn had won? I don't think we'd be seeing the same numbers.

BLUEY: Well, maybe. I mean, I ultimately think this is probably going to look like 2018 when everybody was worried about Beto O'Rourke, and then ultimately Ted Cruz won by a comfortable, you know, three points or so. So, we'll see. And that was a bad year for Republicans, remember.

TAPPER: Right.

BLUEY: So, they're up against some historical trends which show that the president's incumbent party doesn't perform well in the midterm elections. What Ken Paxton needs to do, and I think he needs the support of those Republicans in Congress.

You made the point earlier. They haven't done much. They haven't done much since the one big, beautiful bill. There's a lot of things that they can still do in the time that they have to legislate. That would benefit not only President Trump, but Republicans running for office.

TAPPER: Thanks to one and all. Dave Portnoy built a media empire, but became also along the way, one of the more polarizing figures in the process, although he's incredibly successful. Portnoy's pulling back the curtain right now in a new memoir delving into the controversies he stirred up along the way. We're going to discuss it all when he joins The Lead next.

(COMMERCIAL B REAK)

[18:47:10]

TAPPER: The common man for the common man. That was the promise printed in the very first Barstool Sports newspaper in Boston. And from that scrappy start on street corners to a digital media empire, Dave Portnoy built Barstool Sports into a cultural force that has reshaped sports media.

And now, in his brand-new book, "Cancel Me If You Can," which is out now, he's telling the story through his own eyes, reflecting on the highs and the controversies and the business decisions that shaped the company.

And joining us now is Dave Portnoy.

Dave, thanks so much for joining us.

So you've been building Barstool for more than two decades. "Time Magazine" just named it one of the 250 most iconic companies in America. Yet you were close to walking away entirely before the Supreme Court's 2018 sports gambling ruling changed everything.

Is there a version of the company that could even exist without you at the center of it?

DAVE PORTNOY, FOUNDER, BARSTOOL SPORTS: Yeah, I think we could.

I think that's actually, you know, it would look different. It would sound different. But I think sometimes when people think about Barstool, they naturally think about me. But we've had a lot of big names and a lot of big superstars who have come through our doors. So, you know, as a Saturday Night Live model, like at times, maybe could you think of Saturday Night Live without Eddie Murphy or Will Ferrell, but you replaced them, and we've had big names.

So would it be different? I may be the most controversial. I may be, you know, that gets into controversies, but I think Barstool Sports would have survived without me. What it would look like, I don't know.

TAPPER: You've experienced Barstool as an independent startup, as a major institutional partnership with Penn Entertainment. Now you're back in full control.

What is the biggest lesson that that journey taught you about how media businesses should adapt to survive today? It is a tough environment for a lot of folks in media.

PORTNOY: Yeah, we always benefited and I think one of the things that has separated us and I would say -- made us edgier cool for two decades is we've always been very nimble. We've never really been stuck in our ways. And if we saw something new, people always say, hey, Dave, where's Barstools going to be three to five years? I never answer that.

When we started, Facebook wasn't around. MySpace wasn't. Facebook wasn't, Instagram wasn't, TikTok wasn't.

Technology changes so quickly that if you don't move with it, you can get left behind pretty quickly. So I think we've been very nimble, and that's been a big advantage.

TAPPER: You interviewed President Trump during his first term. You framed it as a big cultural moment for Barstool. But you've also said that people like your colleague Big Cat were not happy about it. In 2024, you opted to not interview then-candidate Trump on the campaign trail.

Have there been other moments when your political engagement has caused tension or disagreement with the Barstool team?

PORTNOY: Yeah, well, that was the major one, that interview.

[18:50:01]

And I mean, when I started Barstool, it really was supposed to be we didn't want to get into politics because, you know, it's the old Michael Jordan quote, like we're trying to sell sneakers to red states and blue states. With politics, half the people will like what you say, half will probably hate it.

So we stayed away. And then I really didn't follow my own advice. As we got bigger, I started getting more involved and I get opinionated and I have a hard time keeping, biting my tongue. But the Trump was definitely the lead controversial thing.

Since then, I think it's kind of toned down, and I say my piece, and I think people who know me, whether they agree or don't, don't think I'm coming at it from specifically a left or right point of view. Some would argue that.

But the Trump was definitely the shining moment, the glaring moment that created animosity within our company.

TAPPER: You've also faced some anti-Semitism in some of your public events. I remember seeing somebody throw a penny at you or something, and there have just been Lots of nastiness about that. Do you think that's coming primarily from the left, primarily from the right, or can you not even tell anymore?

PORTNOY: It's a sad answer. I can't tell anymore. I think Jews, myself, equally hated by both extremes. I would've guessed the guy throwing, I don't have a specific answer, the guy who threw all the coins at me, Mississippi State, I'm going to say he probably came from the right. The guy who said F the Jews and the bar that I owned, he probably came from the left. Those are my guesses, but it comes from all sides.

TAPPER: Yeah, it's pretty horrible.

Recently, you have said that Trump should have denounced -- denounced the UFC fighter who insulted Michelle Obama at that UFC event at the White House. If you had the president in front of you today, what's the one thing you would press him on that you think he still could handle better?

PORTNOY: It's the thing I said before this most recent election. I don't agree with all the criticisms. A lot of criticisms of Trump, I don't agree with. One thing that I think is unequivocal is he's very divisive.

Now, I'm divisive. I'm not president, but I want the country to get along. And I think at this point in time, the country has never not got along more than it is today. And he is a divisive president. If you don't like him, he's not going to really go out of his way to assuage your feelings and try to make you like him all the time. And the divide just keeps getting bigger.

So that, I don't know that I could do it if I was president because it's not my personality. It's clearly not his. But, you know before he ran the thing that I said I -- you know, he is intentionally divisive. That's his nature. In this country, it seems like that gets worse.

So that -- that's my number one criticism and it gets worse every day. I don't know it's all his fault but that's his personality.

TAPPER: The book is called "Cancel Me If You Can," the author is Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy.

Dave thanks so much for joining us. Congrats on the book.

PORTNOY: Thank you very much.

TAPPER: A newly released 911 call reveals the terrifying moments in which a woman was attacked by an alligator in Florida earlier this week. It's the latest in a string of gator attacks. Those details next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:57:30]

TAPPER: In our national lead, a string of alligator attacks across central Florida over the past week is prompting concern. According to CNN affiliate WESH, two of those attacks happened within 24 hours of each other. The most recent attack turned deadly, killing a 31-year- old woman.

CNN's Randi Kaye has the story. A warning to viewers. Some might find this report disturbing.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

911 DISPATCHER: Somebody got bit by a gator.

CALLER: Bad. Real bad. Please hurry.

CALLER: We got to get rid of the gator. Get away from the gator.

911 DISPATCHER: Okay, and how bad is the bite?

CALLER: Horrible.

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A frantic scene Sunday afternoon in Seminole County, Florida, just north of Orlando. A 31- year-old woman attacked by an alligator while swimming in the Econlockhatchee River in just three feet of water.

911 DISPATCHER: Does she still have her arms attached to her or does the gator have one of them?

CALLER: One of them is like very hanging on my thread and the other one's off.

KAYE (voice-over): Authorities say the woman was with her boyfriend and another friend.

CHAD WEBER, PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER, FLORIDA FISH AND WILDLIFE: She was bitten on both of her arms. The boyfriend was the one that made the phone call he was trying to get her from the alligator's mouth.

911 DISPATCHER: Do you know where the other arm is?

CALLER: Gone.

WEBER: And on the way to the hospital, she did pass away from her injuries.

KAYE (voice-over): Hikers were left in disbelief.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've seen really big gators in here. I've never heard of an attack, though.

KAYE (voice-over): According to FWC, two alligators were captured in the area.

WEBER: One was 12 foot, the other one was 13 foot.

KAYE (voice-over): A day earlier at Nelson's Fish Camp in Marion County, Florida, an alligator bit a boy on his hand while he was fishing with his father.

FWC tells CNN they've captured and killed that gator and that it measured nearly nine feet.

On June 21st, a snorkeler suffered an alligator bite in the Rainbow River, about 100 miles away from Sunday's fatal attack in Seminole County.

(END VIDEOTAPE) KAYE: Jake, alligator signs like these warning signs are all over Florida. Beware of alligator, letting people know that there are alligators in the area.

We understand there was a sign like this at the trailhead where that fatal attack took place, where that woman died on Sunday. What we don't know is where she entered that trail and if she ever saw that sign.

And also, Jake, it's worth noting that this is mating season right now until September. So the alligators are especially aggressive and territorial. And I know it sounds like there's a lot of attacks, but according to Florida Fish and Wildlife, it's actually pretty rare. Last year, there were 13 alligator attacks here in the state, two of them fatal, Jake.

TAPPER: Randi Kaye in Florida for us, thank you so much.

You can follow me on Facebook, Instagram, Threads, X, Bluesky, and on TikTok @JakeTapper. You can follow the show on X and Instagram @TheLeadCNN.

If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app.

"ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" starts now.