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The Lead with Jake Tapper

False Positive Test Creates Cyclosporiasis Confusion; Trump Vows Retaliation Against Iran; New Air Force One Already Needs Upgrades; James Talarico Tackles Affordability In New Texas Senate Ad; Spain Celebrates After Winning Second World Cup Title. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired July 20, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly. Jake Tapper is on assignment.

This hour, a false positive test creates serious confusion in the investigation into cyclosporiasis as thousands of Americans fall sick with the illness. Lettuce shipped to 27 states has now been recalled, and restaurants are removing it from their menus. We'll break down what you need to know with a former top U.S. health official.

Plus, the U.S. is sending more fighter jets to the Middle East after Iran killed three U.S. service members over the past few days.

[18:00:04]

President Trump vowed retaliation. Mediators are proposing a temporary ceasefire. So, which path will the White House choose?

Also, President Trump now appearing to admit there are security issues with the new Air Force One. Just a few weeks after the Qatar-donated jet made its debut, what kind of upgrades does the plane need to make sure it's truly safe for the commander-in-chief?

Plus, more of the celebrations in Spain, tens of thousands of fans packing the streets of Madrid tonight welcoming home their World Cup champions. We're breaking down the biggest moments of the tournament with one of the most iconic voices in announcing ahead.

The Lead tonight, confusion swirling about what is actually behind the outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a tiny parasite causing explosive diarrhea, dehydration, and cramping in thousands across five states. The Food and Drug Administration is still pointing to the produce supplier Taylor Farms as the potential source. Just last night, the FDA walked back a test of Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce that it says resulted in a, quote, false positive. Taylor Farms is voluntarily recalling shredded iceberg lettuce products across 27 states in response to the outbreak.

I want to get straight to CNN's Meg Tirrell. And, Meg, what is the latest here?

MEG TIRRELL, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Phil, so that confusion was caused after what you noted was that false positive on a test of lettuce. Now, the FDA coming out today clarifying that even after that false positive, they say it doesn't change the basis for its ongoing outbreak investigation or what it says is the overwhelming epidemiological data supporting the current voluntary recall by Taylor Farms, so Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce from Mexico still under investigation here and part of this big recall.

But contributing to the confusion is that Taylor Farms put out this statement saying that FDA had apologized over that false positive. And now just to put into perspective what this actually was, the FDA started testing samples and said that it came up with this positive for cyclospora on lettuce that was not part of the current recall, and so this would've actually expanded things. Then it said, actually, wait, that was a false positive. So, now we're back to where we were with this brand recall, Taco Bell, of course, being implicated in this and these thousands of illnesses, primarily in those five states in the Midwest.

You also have other food service providers who have removed the product out of caution. Walmart is one that we really should call out for folks, though, because this is a retailer, of course, Marketside brand products, and some of the sell-by dates for these iceberg lettuce products going out into early August. So, that's important for people to know, Phil, that Walmart has recalled these products. Make sure you don't have them in your fridge and definitely don't eat them.

MATTINGLY: So, Meg, more cases were reported just today, right? So, where do things stand right now?

TIRRELL: Yes, this is a massive outbreak right now. We're to more than 8,000 cases nationally and predominantly centered here in the Midwest. Michigan has the most cases right now, today updating their numbers more than 6,000.

Now, of course, there are questions about whether the food that made people sick is actually still out there because these illnesses started in mid-May. I've talked to a number of experts who believe the food is likely not out there, but we could still see this outbreak continue to grow for a while as people who are already sick are added to the case totals.

But any way you look at it, Phil, this is one of the most massive food-borne illness outbreaks we've seen in quite some time.

MATTINGLY: Meg Tirrell, appreciate your expertise always, my friend. Thanks so much.

TIRRELL: Thanks.

MATTINGLY: I want to bring in Susan Mayne. She's the former director of the Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition at the FDA. I really appreciate your time.

To start, and Meg did a great job of laying all this out, I still have to admit I'm a little bit confused at how we're at this point, which is that false positive, does that mean Taylor Farms is not at all responsible for the outbreak here? SUSAN MAYNE, FORMER DIRECTOR, FDA CENTER FOR FOOD SAFETY AND APPLIED NUTRITION: No, that doesn't mean that at all, and I think it's been an unfortunate distraction from the key message that Taylor Farms is strongly linked with the recall of the shredded iceberg lettuce that's associated with this outbreak in five different states.

And just to give you some stats, they had 1,600 people that were in -- had reported Taco Bell. Of those who were interviewed, 90 percent of them said that they had consumed this ice -- consumed iceberg lettuce. When FDA traced that iceberg lettuce back, it all traced back to a specific farm in Mexico, and that's despite Taylor Farms stating that that product coming from Mexico accounted for less than 1 percent of the iceberg lettuce in the U.S. So, think about that for a minute. Five states, people eating in Taco Bell, eating lettuce, and it's tracing back to a farm in Mexico, so that is a very strong signal.

The positive test was not a product that was related to this, this particular outbreak and this recall, and so that has been a bit of a distraction as FDA has changed its position on whether that should be interpreted as a positive or not.

[18:05:01]

MATTINGLY: That is extraordinarily helpful context. You know, Taylor Farms said in a statement about the false positive that the FDA had apologized, and FDA official says they notified the company of the false positive but did not offer an apology. How do you square kind of what's going on here in the public messaging?

MAYNE: In the public messaging, what FDA conveyed is exactly my experience, you know, that if we have test results that are related to a company's product, that information is shared with the company. If that somehow changes, that information is shared with the company. So, I don't think FDA would agree with the characterization of an apology.

But amidst some communications that were not entirely clear that this was not part of the recall, I think Taylor Farms capitalized on that with some language in their communications so that could be misinterpreted, and we've seen that happen with all the confusion that FDA has now doubled down on clarifying today.

MATTINGLY: What -- can you walk people through the testing process right now that the FDA is going through to isolate what product, what companies? How is it actually working at this point?

MAYNE: So, an outbreak investigation is based upon three lines of evidence. The first one is epidemiology, what people are reporting, and CDC actually takes the lead on that.

The second bit of evidence is what product seems to be frequently reported, and can FDA track it back to a common source that would've been available in the restaurants where people reported eating before they got sick.

The third line of evidence is the testing for the actual pathogen, either in product or in the growing region, et cetera. That is the hardest type of evidence, and in the case of cyclospora, it's the most difficult to try to obtain because the testing methodology for cyclospora is not easy and it's not straightforward.

So, what we have is strong epidemiology, strong traceback, and as of this time, we have no molecular data related to the recalled product. Oftentimes in outbreaks, we never have that information. You can trust the information based upon epidemiology and based upon traceback, and that's what we have here, is strong evidence. FDA would characterize it as overwhelming, and that's why consumers really need to pay attention to this recall notice.

MATTINGLY: What's your advice to consumers? It's been a confusing couple days. What would you tell consumers that they should keep in mind?

MAYNE: Yes. Keep in mind, this is an ongoing investigation, and the FDA repeatedly states that. It may not be just one outbreak. FDA actually lists on their website five different cyclospora outbreaks that they're working on, so these are in different parts of the country. So, it is complicated. It's an ongoing investigation. And until we know more, I think it's really important that consumers take heed of all the advice that's been coming out about potentially contaminated foods.

It's also helpful to see what's happening in a consumer state. If you're in Michigan, that may be different than if you're in a state like California, where they've had really relatively few cases. So, know what's happening in your state and take, really take heed of the advice about how to protect yourself as this investigation continues to evolve.

MATTINGLY: Susan Mayne, this was extremely helpful. Thank you very much for sharing your expertise.

MAYNE: My pleasure.

MATTINGLY: Well, we're following breaking news out of the Middle East tonight, where the U.S. military has launched a new round of strikes on Iran. It comes after three U.S. service members were killed by Iranian strikes over the weekend. Much more on these new developments in moments.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:10:00]

MATTINGLY: Breaking news in our world lead right now. The U.S. military is carrying out its 10th night of strikes on Iran, even after three U.S. service members were killed over the weekend, as Jordan and Kuwait's government say they're intercepting incoming missiles from Iran.

The strikes come hours after Trump threatened Iran over the death of those U.S. troops, saying Iran will, quote, pay for that killing many times over. Joining me now at the magic wall is retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton. Colonel Leighton, Iran has been focusing on counterattacks, its counterattacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan. At the beginning of the war, it was a much wider breadth of countries they were targeting in the Gulf region. Why the shift here?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, that's a great question, Phil. One of the reasons that they did this is because there's a preponderance of American military forces in places like Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. There are also some in the UAE, but there are some relationships that the Iranians have with the UAE and with Qatar, which also has a major U.S. military base.

In fact, the largest Air Force base overseas is in Qatar, and the Iranians have decided at the moment not to attack those two areas because of those relationships and the fact that Qatar and the UAE are also working on mediation with Iran. So, that's one of the main reasons.

But the countries of Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan they are more open to the U.S. being a presence in their area for a long time, and the Iranians have basically said that these are areas that they want to strike because of that U.S. presence.

MATTINGLY: Very explicit, it seems, in how they're targeting at this point.

Another service member was killed in a, quote, controlled detonation. Explain for people what that means.

LEIGHTON: So, when you're looking at you know, where these people were killed in northern Iraq is the one that you're actually speaking about here. So, in this area, in Kurdistan, is where this happened. So, when you're looking at a controlled detonation what you're talking about is an effort to basically do what a bomb disposal crew would do, so an explosive ordinance technician was the one that was there trying to dismantle a bomb that was on probably one of these Shahed drones.

[18:15:03]

And that was the idea, was to take out the explosive device before it could harm other people. So, he was basically -- he or she, was basically going in and trying to defuse the bomb. That's what the effort was in this particular case.

MATTINGLY: And we're also learning the U.S. is sending more fighter jets to the Middle East. What does that build up tell us about the strategy, the shifting strategy, whatever things are at this point?

LEIGHTON: Yes. So, one of the types of fighter jets is the -- really the workhorse of the U.S. Air Force, the F-16, and it is basically used for things like air-to-air combat and also air and air-to-ground attacks. So, this is an aircraft that can be used for those very specific missions.

And then for the F-35, which is a very key mission, air superiority and strike missions, so what they're going to be doing is they're going to be taking jets like this and actually moving them forward in a way that would allow them to really strike at targets really throughout the region.

And when you look at the entire region here, they've got a plethora of targets that they can go after. So, the target set that we're looking at would include areas here in the south and in the west because of missile launch facilities there. And then we can't forget about Tehran because that's really the center of everything.

And then, potentially, they might actually strike at targets in the northeast because that's the connection via rail to Russia and China.

MATTINGLY: Do you think from the northeast perspective, Iran's air defenses are demolished enough, are taken care of? Like they still clearly have capability. That overflight, I think, would put U.S. assets at a pretty significant risk.

LEIGHTON: It does put them at risk. However, one of the key things to keep in mind is they have conducted these overflights multiple times and with assets here in the Arabian Sea and in the Persian Gulf and in places all around here. The overflight is actually not that complicated because they know where the air defense assets are, and they've taken out a lot of them, and they can hit here. They've already hit here once. They've taken out a railroad bridge right about there.

And that very fact is -- really shows what they're capable of. So, yes, they can take out a lot more of what the Iranians have, if that's part of the target list and if it's part of the strategy.

MATTINGLY: There's no questioning the effectiveness of the air campaign. It's kind of everything around that's still kind of up in the air.

Colonel, we always appreciate your time, sir. Thanks so much.

LEIGHTON: You bet, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, we just got an update from the White House after President Trump seemed to admit there are security concerns with the new Air Force One. What we're learning about the upgrades to the new plane that it may need, that's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:20:00]

MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, the White House is now working to quickly upgrade the Qatari-gifted jet serving as the new Air Force One, as even President Trump appeared to admit this weekend it was in need of a security boost.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: It has a lot of capability, but as I understand it, in about a month or so, they're going to send it to have it be maxed out. So, they're going to be sending it, and they'll have it be maxed out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, sources say officials realize clearing the jet for Trump's trip to the NATO Summit in Turkey earlier this month was a mistake due to the threat environment, leading to his return on the old Air Force One.

Joining me now is Richard Kolko, a former U.S. Navy commander and former FBI special agent. Sir, really appreciate your time.

Just to start with the speed with which this jet was rolled out, this new Air Force One was rolled out, what did you make of it?

RICHARD KOLKO, FORMER FBI SPECIAL AGENT: Well, we can look at how long it's taken to build the new 747s for the president. I think it's been six or seven years, so you know it takes a good deal of time to prepare those aircraft for presidential travel. We think of 747s as, you know, transport airplanes or commercial airliners. These are actually Air Force aircraft, and they're prepared for a whole lot more than what the typical 747 flying customers around is.

MATTINGLY: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, quote, the new Air Force One is perfectly safe for the president's travels, but will receive additional upgrades and enhancements in the fall, which will take approximately one month to complete. During that time, the president will fly on the old Air Force One.

What is your sense of what enhancements would be needed at this point?

KOLKO: Well, it's got -- well, first of all, they're classified, so not -- besides, I don't know details about them. They don't like to talk about them. The Air Force won't specifically talk about them. But they've got all kinds of capabilities to, to be able to recognize and mitigate any threats that may occur to the aircraft in the air, in addition to the aerial refueling. So, there's a lot of things that this U.S. Air Force plane can do with a full Air Force crew to prepare and defend itself and fly safely with the President of the United States, a critical, critical mission that they have every day.

MATTINGLY: And they're extraordinarily good at what they do, having been on Air Force One a number of times.

One of the questions that I've had is, you know, you make the great, really great point about how long the process was taking compared to this one. Is a month, as the White House press secretary says, all it's really going to take to update the plane to where it needs to be?

KOLKO: Well, there's radars, there's different electronic warfare devices. There's elements that this airplane will have to protect the cargo, which is the president of the United States. Whether they can do that in a month or not, we saw them try and do it as quick as they could. Flying domestically is probably a whole lot safer, but flying out of Turkey where they were literally on the border with Iran while we're in conflict with Iran, and so they were within arm's reach of the enemy at this point, I can see that there were certainly concerns in that area.

But once they got back to friendlier skies, they obviously made a decision that the president could fly on the aircraft at that point.

[18:25:05]

But in order to have that airplane ready to go 24/7 anywhere in the world, they want to make sure it has absolutely every defensive capability that it needs to have to protect the president, and that's what they're going to do. And if they can do that in a month, that's great.

And then you got to figure a couple years from now when the president's out of office, they'll have to what's called de-mil the airplane, which is take a lot of these capabilities off, because when he uses that aircraft as part of his presidential library, he won't have the need or the ability to fly with those defensive measures.

MATTINGLY: The president -- you mentioned -- you made a really good point earlier about there's a lot of stuff they don't talk about with these planes. You kind of know riding on them that they have capabilities but you don't know exactly what it is. The president was asked specifically about anti-missile defense systems, which the Qatar plane reportedly was not yet equipped with. You actually answered the question on some level.

Does the standard Air Force One have on it, things that make it something similar to that, is that what makes it so secure?

KOLKO: Well, Air Force -- listen, again, I'm not an Air Force One pilot and don't have access to the capabilities they have. I just know that they will spare no expense to assure that that plane, every time the president is on it, is as safe as possible with every anti-missile capability they have, every radar that's necessary, every electronic intelligence gathering tool that they have to have, as well as a full crew of Air Force operators that are on board to operate that military equipment, which is not equipment you see on a typical civilian 747.

So, getting that in place, getting that tested, getting it ready, and getting it usable is what's critical here. And whether it takes a, a month to finish it off or a few months, they're going to make sure that they do that because Air Force doesn't want the president to be in harm's way, Secret Service doesn't want to be in harm's way, and, of course, the president doesn't want to be in harm's way.

MATTINGLY: That's an excellent point. I really appreciate your time, Commander Richard Kolko, always, sir. Thank you.

KOLKO: Thanks, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, tonight we're digging into why so many Americans are struggling to keep up financially when the economy at large appears to be doing quite well. It's all part of a new series. That's next (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:30:00]

MATTINGLY: In our Money Lead, we bring you my brand-new series, Priced Out in America, four cities, 5,000 miles, three dozen interviews, all to understand how and why Americans are trapped in a cost of living crisis. Childcare costs, inflation, forever renters, the retirement mirage, the relentless pressure on these families and households reveals the structural forces that have profoundly and permanently reshaped the U.S. economy.

Here's three examples from Tampa, Florida, Boston, and Atlanta.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GISELA DALNOKY, DIRECTOR, TAMPA FREE SENIOR HEALTH CLINIC: I'd say 75 percent of our patients are the working poor. They have a job at Publix and a job at the dollar store, and job somewhere else to cobble together 30 to 40 hours a week so they can pay for the roof over their head. There's no money for doctors or medications.

MATTINGLY (voice over): Seniors here in Florida are facing a cost of living crisis, especially when it comes to healthcare.

LORI VENTURA, DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS, TAMPA FREE SENIOR HEALTH CLINIC: You have people who have worked their whole lives, end up in the hospital with something catastrophic, and the only way that they can get Medicaid is to sell their house. So, they have no house, they have no asset, and they still have an illness.

GREG DUNN, FATHER OF THREE CHILDREN: There were years alone that the daycare was double what all the other expenses were, just the daycare.

MATTINGLY: Your twins are going to kindergarten.

AUDREY DUNN, MOTHER OF THREE CHILDREN: Yes.

MATTINGLY: What does that mean for you guys next year? It means a relief, a financial relief. They're going to public school. We have a lot of debt because of daycare, and we're going to start being able to pay it back.

G. DUNN: Almost all parents that I talk to are kind of shocked that there is no support. It is this expensive, and there is no support. Even if we wanted a fourth kid, we could never afford a fourth kid.

MATTINGLY: The decision is purely financial, not based on whether or not you want kids.

G. DUNN: Completely financial. There's no way we -- you know, we're at the max limit with the three.

MATTINGLY: Nearly half of young families in America report the same according to LendingTree. They're having fewer kids because of financial constraints. AMANDA JAQUEZ, SENIOR ASSOCIATE, ANNIE E. CASEY FOUNDATION: Between 2017 and 2023 in this neighborhood, the property assessments, the values that you're taxed on, increased by over 500 percent. So, part of our programs, when you're talking about, right, gentrification, things getting better, versus displacement, people being forced to leave their homes, the BeltLine is wonderful. The city and the Atlanta BeltLine Inc. are still catching up in terms of trying to prevent displacement.

MATTINGLY: Back along the BeltLine, in the neighborhood that used to be hers, Mayra Martinez walks past the polished new version of home.

MAYRA MARTINEZ, ATLANTA NATIVE: All of the BeltLine, I feel like it's just not representative of the just Atlanta community that, again, I was raised in.

MATTINGLY: Caught in the cruelest version of the bargain, watching her city build the good life right on top of her old one.

This is exactly the development you should want in your community. What they're missing is that the people who made that community their home for decades are no longer able to live in it.

MARTINEZ: Absolutely.

MATTINGLY: So, they don't get to enjoy the benefits.

MARTINEZ: Exactly.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY (on camera): You can watch more of my series Priced Out in America streaming now on CNN All Access on cnn.com.

I want to bring in Justin Wolfers. He's a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan.

And I want to get to the cost of living crisis in a moment, Justin, but I want to start with some of the breaking economic news we've gotten in the last hour or so, which is President Trump reigniting the trade war with Canada. I guess it's been ignited, igniting further the trade war with Canada, 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian goods. Explain to people how big a deal this is.

JUSTIN WOLFERS, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: This is a surprisingly big deal actually. And it's fitting this is part of your series on the cost of living crisis because it just got a little bit harder for everyone.

[18:35:01]

And, by the way, I really do want to compliment you on the important work that you're doing there.

Look, let me explain the background. The president has been batting around Canada like a cat who's just found a mouse. He's been doing it for years now. He came to power when NAFTA was the trade agreement that had originally been negotiated by Clinton. He tore that up, he renegotiated it. He then came to power a second time. He tore it up, he renegotiated it. In fact, one of his first acts as president was aggressive tariffs against, can you believe it, Canada, of all the countries in the world.

And, recently, we'd gotten to a nice peace, and in that peace, basically, the president had a bunch of silly tariffs, but, overall, he said anything that was under our existing free trade agreement. I want to repeat, the United States has an existing free trade agreement with Canada. Previously, anything that was under that was exempt, which meant that most of our trade with Canada was just continuing along nicely.

What the president has done here is dramatically different. He said there's no longer an exemption for anything that was covered by our existing free trade agreement. He's literally got 14 pages of different goods that he's now imposing this 50 percent tariff on, which is a tax on Americans who buy goods from Canada.

MATTINGLY: And to kind of tie it together to what you said at the beginning, one of the things that I think I picked up on throughout the course of my reporting for the project is it's not any one thing, right? It's not one grocery item going up. It's not gas going up for a couple of weeks. It's the compounding nature of everything, and the structural issues that put people close to the brink, and then something like an increase on an item or a certain good or something you buy at the grocery store that kind of pushes you over, the unexpected medical bill, the flat tire.

One of the things that I think has been so hard to explain to people, and you do it quite well, is the kind of disconnect between the macroeconomy and the people that I've been talking to for this project, what they're facing, why people are so unhappy in all the polling. How do you square that?

WOLFERS: Mate, I think part of it is we are used to being able to pull together during hard times when we face a crisis, and we do so together. Think about how there was, in the early days of COVID, tremendous social solidarity. We all wanted to help our neighbors out. We understood we were in tough times. We were there. We were in it together.

The thing that's different about the present moment, and this really aggravates me, is, for the first time in my lifetime, most of our economic challenges are literally coming straight from Washington. Today's announcement, for instance, makes an array of Canadian goods much more expensive for the families that you're talking to.

We have very tight linkages with Canada. It's not quite the 51st state, but they're our very best mates. And if we're not going to look after them, then, you know, a 50 percent sales tax on top of everything that goes on there. It's not just that, of course. There's the war in Iran.

And the other thing that really strikes me is, you know, inflation right now is 3.5 percent. Compared to other countries of a similar size and status, compared to the G7, the United States has the highest rise in the cost of living of any of those countries right now. So, what folks are feeling at home, in fact, it's real.

MATTINGLY: Do you feel like Washington can actually solve it? And I ask that because one of the things -- one of my biggest takeaways from the three dozen plus interviews I did with people was they don't think anybody cares. They don't think anybody cares, they don't think anybody's listening. And if I were an incumbent in either party, I would be looking around right now absolutely terrified going into the midterms. But do you feel like there are really coherent policy solutions to the bigger issues?

WOLFERS: Yes, I do. And let me just tell you that I care. I want to look folks at home in the eye who are struggling and say, I care. Phil, I know you care. I'm also going to speak on part -- look, no one likes economists. We're a bunch of nerds. I'm a little bit overdressed. I speak in long fancy words. But I will tell you, the economics profession is looking at the current moment and doing what we can to try to move things forward.

The thing is, you know, you can't ask the Fed to suddenly undo tariffs, because tariffs come from the White House. You can't ask the Fed to undo the pressures that you feel at the pump right now. There are fairly clear, fairly simple ways forward.

It's just that it's a playbook my profession, economists, folks who study the economy. There's a fairly clear playbook. It's just a playbook that folks in Washington aren't willing to do right now. The Senate and the House, they all seem much more obsessed with their own re-election than the real pain that people at home are feeling.

MATTINGLY: Justin Wolfers, I always appreciate you and your time and your profession. By the way, I learned a ton from reading a ton of really great papers heading into this project. As always, thank you, my friend.

WOLFERS: A pleasure.

MATTINGLY: Well, major moves from Democrats this week as they look ahead to trying to win back the White House in 2028. Our panel is here to break it all down next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:40:00]

MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, control of Congress may be on the table in this year's midterm elections, but it seems some candidates already have their eyes on 2028. Today, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly was named as the keynote speaker at a key Democratic fundraiser in Iowa next month. And in Nebraska, former ambassador and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is campaigning today with a Democratic candidate for Congress.

Let's jump right into the panel, because, Ashley, why would we talk about the midterms when we could talk about the presidential? ASHLEY ALLISON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I know. I can't wait.

MATTINGLY: Walk people through, like, yes, they are positioning themselves, yes, people are trying to figure out who's got lanes, who's going to make a real effort here. What, in your mind, matters right now for anybody who's thinking about 2028?

ALLISON: Us winning in 2026. I really think that if Democrats do not win the House and maybe even the Senate in 2026, it's not just a policy concern that I have, it is this president not having them checks and balances for two more years which I find quite dangerous.

I think the other thing is if we cannot win in 2026, it does question, do we have a strong policy agenda ahead of the midterms?

[18:45:00]

Midterms tell you, should you talk about economy? Should you talk about immigration? Should you talk about abortion?

Should you talk -- it gives you some trending wins and can understand. Polls will tell you a bunch of stuff. The only polls that actually matter are the polls that voters go in and vote in and that's what midterms can be an indication for.

DOUG HEYE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: That is the only time I've heard the only poll that matters on Election Day is actually true and smart because usually people say it as a cop-out but you're exactly right I'd caution Democrats though a little bit on this and say learn the lesson of Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell promised a red wave and then the red wave wasn't enough and Ted Cruz promised a red tsunami.

And I've heard so many predictions from Democrats of it's going to be a butt whooping and things like that. It's simple in communications and politics, it's Bull Durham. We're going to take this one race at a time and Good Lord willing we're going to be there in the playoffs because if you promise a wave and you don't get it, we saw what happened with Republicans, we fired Nancy Pelosi as speaker for the second time Democrats threw the victory party.

ALLISON: I don't know --

HEYE: It's a real strategery.

ALLISON: I'm not saying I'm sure there's going to be a wave.

HEYE: Oh, no, no, I get it.

ALLISON: I think that there is, and a wave, to be fair, in 2022, the wave happened, and we still lost, Democrats still lost, or for Democrats were able to withhold, you know, total disaster in 2022, and we still lost in 2024. I do think it gives you an indication of how some voters are feeling, though.

MATTINGLY: Yeah, and Nuke LaLoosh on message nowhere near as fun as Nuke LaLoosh off message. Thank you for both Durham references.

All right, actually, speaking of 2028, DNC meeting this week to consider which states should hold their presidential primaries first. Xavier Becerra, who is the Democratic nominee for governor in California, tells Politico that Nevada should kick things off, saying Nevada is, quote, "home to the very communities who have suffered most under the heavy hand of Donald Trump, and they should be first in line to send the message that his reign is over. Do you agree?

ALLISON: Nevada could be like top four, I think. It has been historically. It comes in around third. I think that there needs to be states that are actually in play for battlegrounds to give a sense of where -- I never thought Iowa was the right state to start our primary season with.

And I'll be honest, I know why we went to South Carolina because of the Black vote. But I also think there are other states that are more in play in 2028 that have Black voters like a Michigan, like an Atlanta that gives you the diversity of the country, a southern state, a northern state, a Midwestern state. So Nevada should be a contender because of the Latino population there, because of the labor population there.

I'm not sure we need to start in Nevada, though.

MATTINGLY: Can you explain, why does this matter? Like, for somebody who's... watched this change repeatedly over the course of the last several years and still sees New Hampshire, like, threatening to burn the entire country down if anybody messes with what's literally in their state law. Why does this matter for a party?

HEYE: Well, I think it ultimately matters to that state and how they're able to entrench themselves. Iowa is not going anywhere on the Republican side either. Otherwise, it doesn't matter. There's no other logical reason that they need to go first. Much love that I have, though. for the Iowa caucus.

But I'd say you talk about South Carolina, I'd say everything you talked about is just one state north. You just cross that line into North Carolina. It has been a perennial battleground. And a few months ago, Andrew --

MATTINGLY: Just real quick, I want people to look at the screen. This is an op-ed you wrote with Andrew Bates. Walk people through it.

HEYE: It's a battleground state perennially. The Senate race is going to be close. Why? Because they're always close. We had a really fluke in the governor's election last time where it was a blowout because Republicans nominated as bad a candidate as they could.

Election in North Carolina are always close. If I'm a Democrat or Republican for that matter, I don't want to start there because that's where you can build your ground game and keep that team in place. And you don't need them in the states that are slam dunks. ALLISON: But in the presidential race, hasn't won since 2008, I want to say, in North Carolina. That being said, it's not a bad argument. It is definitely --

HEYE: Trump's biggest margin, I think, was 3.7. That's no slam dunk.

ALLISON: Yeah, but we're talking about even in 2012, Obama didn't win it.

HEYE: Second closest state in 2012, just as it was in 2008.

MATTINGLY: And they win statewide.

ALLISON: I'm not saying it's not worth, but I don't know if it needs to be our first.

MATTINGLY: Honestly, we should just give credit for Doug Heye and Andrew Bates getting together and co-highlighting something.

HEYE: I'll take that.

MATTINGLY: That's a --

(LAUGHTER)

MATTINGLY: Okay, I want to talk about midterm messaging. Down in Texas, Democrat James Talarico's campaign started running this new ad about affordability. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES TALARICO (D), TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: I was born to one of those people, a single mom, guided by faith, who did whatever it took to provide for me. As a teacher, I saw families doing everything right and still falling behind. In the State House, I brought both parties together to lower drug costs and cut property taxes.

I'm James Talarico, and I approve this message because I'll take on corruption and make this economy work for working people again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: I'll ask each of you, pretty effective.

ALLISON: Well, the whole election, I think, is going to be about affordability right now. And I do think it is an effective message, but I ultimately think Texas is still a long shot.

[18:50:00]

He is going to have to rally his base, Black voters, Latino voters. An economic message can work there, but also, are you going to fight for me? Do I see you in my campaign? If James Talarico can do that, he has a chance, but it's still going to be a long shot.

HEYE: I say candidates of either party should be talking about the economy first, second and third. It's what voters are screaming. It's what your whole reporting over the past couple of weeks and coming up is about.

Everything you do in your life now is more expensive than it was not just four years ago, but a year ago. And voters are feeling that pinch.

So if I'm a politician, Republican or Democrat, this is what I want to be talking about. The challenge for Republicans is Trump takes them off message every single day of the week.

ALLISON: Yeah. And I'll just say, I like the way he said I was one of those people. Now everybody feels like they're one of these people. Everyone feels like it used to feel like there was a segment of the population that couldn't afford anything. Every American feels like everything is too expensive.

MATTINGLY: Yeah, it's -- to your point. It's wild that the president continues to like every day, not just not talk about it, but actually do things to make it worse sometimes. You talk Republicans on the Hills -- I know you do more than I do -- it's like just banging heads against walls.

I appreciate you guys --

ALLISON: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: -- very much.

Well, just hours after winning the World Cup, Spain's national team is already heading home, at home, celebrating with tens of thousands of fans in the streets of Madrid, where Doug Heye should be.

That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:55:44]

MATTINGLY: In our sports lead, the World Cup is over, Spain's party very much is not. Today, a sea of red and yellow filling the streets of Madrid for Spain's homecoming parade. The World Cup champions fresh off their victory over Argentina, celebrating with them along the way.

And who better to round out the 2026 World Cup than the man behind the iconic calls, the man who is the reason that I started watching Telemundo instead of Fox, even though I don't speak Spanish, Telemundo's play-by-play announcer, Andres Cantor.

I really appreciate your time, kind of in awe seeing you in live and in color. A historic World Cup. Not just because Spain secured second title, but for Telemundo as well. The network more than doubled its audience from the 2022 tournament. More English speakers tuned in, even if they didn't fully understand the language, like myself.

What do you make of that? ANDRES CANTOR, TELEMUNDO PLAY-BY-PLAY ANNOUNCER: Thank you for having me on. We have the early preliminary number from yesterday, and it's more than 22-point-something million people. That is incredible.

And we thank all the people like you, Phil, that obviously tuned into Telemundo. It helped that the World Cup was here in our country. And in case of the fight on, that Argentina and Leo Messi's last dance was playing the best team in the World Cup, Spain.

So we are very happy, obviously, in Telemundo, and this is just the beginning.

MATTINGLY: For so many of us, your voice was kind of synonymous with the World Cup. It seemed very fitting that it'd be amplified during FIFA's first ever halftime show. Take a listen.

(VIDEO CLIP PLAYS)

MATTINGLY: Did you know your voice was going to cap off the halftime show?

CANTOR: Oh, yes, of course. I had a call from Global Citizen, which was a producer of the halftime show, Chris Martin and Coldplay put it on. And obviously, they had to get my permission and I had to agree for them. And it was a terrific honor being there at the end, closing the show of Madonna, Shakira, and everyone that performed.

MATTINGLY: You were in good company. There is no question about that.

There's also a lot of talk about what happened after the match yesterday. Shortly after the final whistle, some brawling broke out involving several members of the Argentina team. There are reports that FIFA is investigating.

Do you anticipate FIFA suspending players? What kind of disciplinary action do you think they'll take here?

CANTOR: Yeah, most likely they will suspend the players, the Argentinean players, started the brawl, obviously they were upset because they had lost the final of the World Cup, but also they took it on the players, the Spanish players that had talked all week or since the semi-final that Argentina used dirty tricks to get to the final. And they obviously were trying to put pressure on the referee and that didn't suit well.

There is no excuse. There is obviously This is, it's sad that it ended this way for Argentina because that's not the image that two or three players, two or three players from Argentina dampened the image of a very good resilient team that defended their title until the very end.

So it's unfortunate that it happened. Nobody likes what happened. And obviously, most likely, you know, FIFA will suspend the players that were involved.

MATTINGLY: We only have about 20 seconds left. Favorite moment of the entire Cup, what would it be? CANTOR: Well, I always say the same thing yesterday. Ferran Torres winning goal in overtime, it has to be it, even though there were plenty, like the Cinderella stories, the Cape Verde, the Curacao goal against Germany first in the history for that nation. But obviously, the winning goal of the World Cup is always a favorite.

MATTINGLY: Your voice was my guide throughout. Andres Cantor, really appreciate your time, my friend. Thanks so much. I hope you get to take a little bit of a break.

CANTOR: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: And you can follow the show on X and Instagram @TheLeadCNN. If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app.

"ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" starts now.