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Harris And Trump Hold Dueling Rallies In Pennsylvania On Final Day Of Campaigning; Federal Reserve On Track For Another Rate Cut This Week; How the U.S. Presidential Election Is Viewed Around The World. Aired 7:30-8a ET
Aired November 04, 2024 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[07:30:00]
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: It is a big day in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris spends the whole day there. Donald Trump makes two stops. This is a state that Joe Biden won by 80,000 votes in 2020. It is a state where right now the margins super close in the polls. The latest CNN Poll of Polls shows things completely tied.
Now, here is a guide to watching the election returns in Pennsylvania. As I said, Joe Biden won four years ago but by a slim margin, 81,000 votes. In 2016, Donald Trump won but by an even slimmer margin, 44,000 votes. So if it looks like -- more like the Biden election county-by- county, that's good for Kamala Harris. If it looks more like 2016 county-by-county, it's good for Donald Trump.
What do I mean in terms of the counties they're going today?
Let's look at Lackawanna County. This is where Scranton is, the birthplace of Joe Biden. You can see Biden won Lackawanna County by eight points. Hillary Clinton won by less than four points. Again, the Biden margins may bring you victory in the state, the Clinton margins mean a Trump victory.
Second stop for Harris today, Lehigh County. This is where Allentown is. Large Hispanic population. How much do the racist jokes about Puerto Rico impact the vote here?
You can see Biden won by a little bit less than eight points. Clinton won but it was less than five points. Again, the Biden margins are what the Harris campaign wants.
Reading, which is Berks County. Now this is a county that Donald Trump won the last two elections, but you can see the margins here -- eight points in 2020. In 2016, he won by 10 points. It is the Biden margins that bring victory.
Quickly, we'll look at Allegheny County. That's where Pittsburgh is. Biden won by 20 points. Clinton won, but it was closer -- less than 17 points. The Biden margins are what you want.
Now, to caveats to watching these county-country returns in terms of understanding where things are going. One of them -- it's a big caveat -- it's Philadelphia. Obviously, the biggest county. The big urban center.
Joe Biden cleaned up there. But this is a bit of an anomaly. Biden actually did worse -- look at that -- 81 to 17. He did worse than Hillary Clinton did in terms of percent. So we don't know what Philadelphia is going to bring, and it may be a bit of an anomaly.
The other thing in terms of trying to gauge how the night is going based on the returns from these counties -- let me go back to Lehigh County. That's where Allentown is, a county that Joe Biden won. If Kamala Harris wins there it might mean she's in good shape by these margins.
But the question is what time of night are you looking -- you're trying to get a sense of how things are going? The polls close in Pennsylvania at 9:00. You can see right when they closed Biden had a lead in the vote count in 2020, but by about 11:00 the vote count started going in DT's favor. He goes ahead in terms of the amount of votes that have been counted and stays ahead in this county all the way until Thursday afternoon. And that is when Joe Biden went back on top in Lehigh County and stayed on top.
And it was Saturday that CNN called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden and ended up calling the entire presidential race for him.
So yes, Lehigh County something of a bellwether but a late breaking perhaps bellwether. So it's something to keep in mind as you're trying to gauge these returns as they're coming in Tuesday into Wednesday, Kate -- maybe even beyond.
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Yeah. If it passes prolog there's going to be -- there is a lot of late breaking when it comes to Pennsylvania and how it counts.
Joining us right now, CNN senior political commentators Van Jones and Scott Jennings. Good morning, guys.
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Morning.
VAN JONES, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER OBAMA ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Good morning.
JENNINGS: We almost made it.
BOLDUAN: Almost made it but still time to -- just kidding.
Let's focus on Pennsylvania.
JONES: Yeah.
BOLDUAN: Kamala Harris is doing -- hitting five cities, ending with a late-night rally in Philadelphia tonight.
When it comes to Pennsylvania, Van, what has you feeling good about Pennsylvania and what has -- what is making you nervous about Pennsylvania? JONES: Well, I'm just nervous all the time, so I don't feel good about nothing and I'm not going to feel good about nothing until it's over.
I'm worried. Philadelphia is where we've got to run up a big margin. And -- but Philly overall has been trending down not in terms of going toward the Republicans, just people not getting out to vote. And so you've got people out there like Pastor Carl Day who has got a bunch of young men with him knocking on doors and trying to get people to come out. It's a bigger, tougher fight in Philly to get that vote count up than it has been in the past. That has me worried.
The other thing that has me worried is that the Jewish vote in the suburban areas. Biden won the Jewish vote by 70 percent -- 70 to 30 -- last time. Some polls show Kamala at 50-50. That is 70,000 votes we bled away. That is the margin for victory.
So you've got groups like Zioness. Amanda Berman out there fighting to get the Jewish vote back on board. This is a tough --
BOLDUAN: Trump campaign doing ads to try to --
JONES: And the Trump campaign pushing the other direction.
So this is a -- it is -- it is door-to-door, bruised knuckles, tired legs, a lot of coffee. And I'm nervous and worried that I'm not going to be any way until this thing gets called.
BOLDUAN: OK. Is there anything that is making you happy about Pennsylvania?
JONES: No. There's nothing making me happy about Pennsylvania. You've got David Urban out there causing us trouble in the rural parts of the state. Get David Urban on this show and keep him here all day, then I'll feel better.
[07:35:07]
BOLDUAN: Just don't let him leave.
JONES: I don't want -- I don't want him out there.
BOLDUAN: Same question to you. What makes you -- what is making you -- is anything making you happy about Pennsylvania? Is everything making you nervous?
JENNINGS: I just have to say if only there's something that Kamala Harris could have done early in this campaign to help with the Jewish voters of Pennsylvania.
JONES: Um, um.
JENNINGS: Could it have been that the governor of Pennsylvania is a Jewish American who would have been -- and a very popular one.
BOLDUAN: Just think, if she had picked Josh Shapiro, it doesn't mean every Jew is going to be voting for her.
JENNINGS: I mean, it might have meant -- it might have meant a whole bunch of Pennsylvanians voted for her.
BOLDUAN: I mean --
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: This could go down as the biggest --
BOLDUAN: Moving on.
JENNINGS: But I'm just saying. Anyway, I understand why you're nervous.
Look, I think whoever wins Pennsylvania -- I mean, obviously, 90-plus percent chance they're going to be the next president. And so these campaigns have pulled out all the stops there. The fact that Harris is going there a ton means I think they're nervous about it.
And, you know, I look at some of this early voting stuff and it like a witch's cauldron. You can lean over and smell the vapors, and you can kind of sort of see what you want to see in it. And Republicans have some reason to believe that maybe the Democrats aren't doing quite as well with their turnout operation. But she -- the reality --
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: -- is nobody knows nothing. And so for old political operatives like --
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: -- Van and me, that does make you nervous --
JONES: Yes.
JENNINGS: -- because of the closeness of the polling and just the uncertainty around all the data. And I'll be as interested as anybody on election night. So I don't know whether I'm nervous or not because at this point, I'm not sure there's -- you know, what else can you do?
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: What else is there to say about it? Pennsylvania is the state.
JONES: But I'll tell you this. The other thing that makes me nervous is in 2016 we had a big star-studded event right on the edge of the election and we lost the state.
JENNINGS: Hmm.
JONES: I don't know that these -- I don't think people understand. Working people sometimes have to choose am I going to go to the big, cool concert this week and pay for babysitting for that, or I'm going to try to figure out a way to get to the polls.
I don't like these big star-studded events. They don't have any -- I can't show where they help us win. N fact, it probably helped us lose last time. I don't want people going to concerts. I want people knocking on doors. I want people out there fighting for this thing. I'm just nervous, nervous, nervous.
BOLDUAN: OK, let's play -- none of this is a game. It's all real.
JONES: Yes.
BOLDUAN: But let's play a game of this or that. When it comes to Donald Trump and kind of the darker -- the dark rhetoric -- angry rhetoric that we've heard in the last couple of days, which is more, do you think, dangerous politically and maybe just literally?
And the this is him stoking fears already about voter fraud in Pennsylvania, literally suggesting already at a rally that they're already cheating in Pennsylvania without any foundation. And the that is this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and I don't mind that so much because -- I don't mind. I don't mind that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BOLDUAN: This or that?
JENNINGS: Well, on the voter registration stuff there is an investigation going on --
BOLDUAN: Um-hum.
JENNINGS: About some fraudulent voter registration. There's also one apparently going on in Arizona, too.
BOLDUAN: Voter registration that has no suggestion that has anything to do with ballots.
JENNINGS: I know, but there is an underpinning to what he is saying and --
BOLDUAN: No, but his underpinning was also why are they extending the hours when the Republican Party were the ones who filed a challenge to extend hours in Bucks County.
JENNINGS: Well, but the -- yeah, but Republicans were trying to vote there. I mean -- I mean, their -- I mean, did the RNC win this?
BOLDUAN: He's mad that they are extending the hours.
JENNINGS: Well, I know. But I'm saying that there was a reason that the RNC went to court there to --
BOLDUAN: I understand that as well.
JENNINGS: Look, the reality is there have been a few things. But that doesn't necessarily mean, and we should not assume that there is not going to be a free and fair election. I believe there is going to be a free and fair election in this country. And so -- and I hope that we get a count quickly enough that it doesn't undermine confidence.
And on the other issue I'll be honest. I don't like it because I was very critical of the people who were I think inciting or saying things that could incite violence against Donald Trump himself.
BOLDUAN: Um-hum.
JENNINGS: And so I just -- I don't like the idea -- and look, maybe he feels like he can joke about it because he's the one that got shot. But I just don't like the idea --
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: -- that we would raise the specter of that ever happening again because I think it was one of the worst days of this campaign when he got shot and we came within a quarter of an inch of something cataclysmic happening in this country.
JONES: Yeah.
JENNINGS: And I just -- again, he's the one that got shot, not me. But I just -- I don't like the idea of even joking about it truthfully.
BOLDUAN: Yeah.
JONES: I don't like it either. And he's been increasingly kind of doing this violent imagery stuff --
BOLDUAN: Yeah.
JONES: -- and I think it's misquoted and we argue about exactly how did he talk about the violent imagery. I would like him to not talk about violent imagery when it comes --
[07:40:00]
BOLDUAN: Say what you mean and mean what you say.
JONES: Yes, exactly.
And I'm also concerned that this whole attempt to drive down confidence in the voting is a part of a bigger scheme to disrupt the election later.
But just to be clear, the Heritage Foundation has a -- has a task force. They're the conservatives. They looked at two billion votes and could find from 2002 to 2023, in two decades, 85 cases of non-citizen voting. Eighty-five out of two billion. So even the conservatives cannot find all this fraud that they're talking about, and I wish Donald Trump would stop talking about it.
BOLDUAN: Thank you for being here, guys. Let's see what happens in these final hours and then the days and days --
JENNINGS: I think Van will calm down. I want to --
JONES: It's very high. It's very high.
BOLDUAN: I like a -- a hyped up Van Jones. I don't know about you. I'm here for it. I'm here for it as well.
JONES: Go vote.
BOLDUAN: I'm here for it -- Sara.
SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, thank you, guys.
Economists are closely watching who will move into the White House. The economy, of course, is one of the biggest issues for voters with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offering starkly different approaches to tackling things like inflation.
Inflation is also top of mind for the Federal Reserve, which is set to make its latest move on interest rates. Could a rate cut come before we even know the winner of the 2024 election?
CNN's Matt Egan is joining us now. What could we expect a bit later this week?
MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Sara, we don't know much about how the next few days are going to play out in the election, but one thing that does seem like a slam dunk is another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The market is pricing in almost a 100 percent chance of an interest rate cut -- a quarter-point cut from the Fed on Thursday. Now, this would be good news, of course, for consumers and everyone who is struggling to pay off credit card debt or thinking about financing the purchase of a car.
And this, of course, comes after the Fed delivered its first rate cut since COVID back in September, and they went big with a 50 basis point rate cut. You see how rates are finally starting to move a little bit lower, although they are massively higher than they were just a few years ago.
Now, you might be wondering whether or not Friday's weak jobs report might cause the Fed to go big again this week. But economists don't think so and that's because it does look like that weakness from the jobs report was mostly driven by worker strikes and those back-to-back hurricanes.
Goldman Sachs told clients over the weekend that they're betting that the Fed will cut by a quarter of a point this week, do it again in December, and they're penciling in four more interest rate cuts next year. Now, what's interesting though and very unusual, of course, is that the Fed has to make this decision this week and they may not know who the next president is going to be nor what economic policies he or she will be enacting. And that, of course, is very important because it's easy to see how the outcome of this election could affect what the Fed does going forward. Because, of course, there's a lot of concerns about former President Trump's campaign proposals and how they could be inflationary or very inflationary.
But the Fed, just like the rest of us, are going to have to wait and see how this election plays out and who is on control of Congress as well -- Sara.
SIDNER: Inflation, as you've mentioned before, still sort of haunting the Biden-Harris administration, something Trump is really trying to cash in on.
What are you seeing there?
EGAN: Well, Sara, yeah. I mean, inflation's fingerprints are all over this race for the White House. Bidenomics really soured on voters as soon as this administration started. We have $5.00 gas. We have that inflation rate spiking to a four-decade high of nine percent even though a lot of that was driven by COVID and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
And Vice President Harris -- she's had to play defense trying to defend the administration's track record. The problem, of course, is that even though the rate of inflation has come down sharply, prices are still going up. Americans are paying so much more than they were just a few years ago.
And all of this has fueled a real sense of economic anxiety that has helped to boost former President Trump's numbers. And I think that if Trump ends up winning, we're going to look back at inflation as one of the forces that sent him back to the White House -- Sara.
SIDNER: Matt Egan, a good analyst there. Thank you so much. I appreciate it -- John.
EGAN: Thank you.
BERMAN: All right. This morning more than 75 million people have cast their ballots already. What that vote and its makeup tells us about where things are absolutely headed or not.
And in some of the places with the most online in this election might not even be within the United States.
(COMMERCIAL)
[07:48:56]
BOLDUAN: New this morning, Israel has formally notified the United Nations it is cutting ties with the U.N.'s Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA. Israel canceling its 1967 agreement allowing the agency to work.
There are many opinions on why UNRWA, which provides services and aid to Palestinians in Gaza and across the Middle East -- why it was banned. Many point to allegations by the IDF that a handful of UNRWA employees in Gaza participated in the October 7 Hamas terror attack. Others see the move as another step in the erosion of Palestinian rights.
Actor James Van Der Beek has announced that he has colorectal cancer. In a statement to CNN he revealed that he's been dealing with it privately with the support of his family. He's 47 years old. And he became famous, you'll remember for his breakout star role in "DAWSON'S CREEK." And he also said that he is feeling good, and he is optimistic.
According to the American Cancer Society, about one in 23 men and one in 25 women will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer in their lifetime in the United States.
[07:50:00]
And a scary moment for Coldplay fans when lead singer Chris Martin doing his thing and looking great, and then all of a sudden he fell through a trap door on stage. We're going to get to it maybe --
BERMAN: Really?
BOLDUAN: -- maybe. Maybe he did or maybe I'm making it up.
BERMAN: Oh, there it is. Whew!
BOLDUAN: It was a trap door that was not supposed to be open at that moment at his concert in Melbourne, Australia.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS MARTIN, LEAD SINGER, COLDPLAY: (INAUDIBLE). That's not planned. Thank you for catching me so much. Thank you, guys. Holy (bleep) this will be a YouTube moment.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BOLDUAN: "Thank you for catching me, guys." He was not injured. He quickly jumped back up on stage and thanked his crew -- obviously, what you saw right there.
This is the same city where Olivia Rodrigo also fell through a trap door when she was performing on stage in Melbourne just a few weeks ago.
SIDNER: Hmm.
BOLDUAN: What's going on, Melbourne?
BERMAN: Get your trap doors together.
BOLDUAN: I think he wants to deal with the hinges.
SIDNER: OK, you guys are in fine fettle this morning.
As millions of people are preparing to head to the polls across America tomorrow, an intense focus will be on the seven battlegrounds that will likely determine the outcome of this election. Each one has different processes and rules for counting ballots.
CNN's Zachary Wolf joins us now to break down what to expect on election night. The question everybody is asking is how long it might be before we actually know the results from these states and others, but these particular states.
ZACHARY WOLF, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER: Well, I mean, nobody knows right now but there have been some changes this year that could speed some things up in some of the states.
In Georgia and North Carolina, those are the first two where polls are going to close. We think that by 8:00 most of Georgia's results could be reported because they're preprocessing the mail-in ballots there.
One hiccup in North Carolina is that a law has changed how fast they can count some of the early in-person voting. That could delay things a little bit. But the Secretary of State's office there says that they should have 98 percent of the votes counted in North Carolina on election night.
As you move later in the evening -- some of the polls that close a little bit later -- Pennsylvania comes next. They could take a while just like they did four years ago. You'll remember it took four days. That was the state when it was ultimately projected that put Biden over the -- over the -- over the hump to become president.
This year they're still not preprocessing those mail-in ballots until Election Day, so it could take a very long time. Fewer people we expect will vote by mail in Pennsylvania than four years ago, but they will still literally be taking -- they can't take ballots out of envelopes until Election Day. And Wisconsin also has that rule.
As you go further West, later in the evening Arizona could speed things up from four years ago because they're preprocessing the mail- in ballots. But it's not clear exactly how many ballots will be dumped -- dropped off on Election Day. That could slow things down.
So we really just don't know but hopefully, faster than four years ago.
SIDNER: We will see, Zachary Wolf. Thank you so much. Appreciate you breaking that down for us -- John.
BERMAN: All right, with us now is Republican Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas and former 2024 presidential candidate.
And Governor, you signed onto a letter along with some other politicians and military leaders saying, "We call on all Americans, regardless of political affiliation, to refrain from using threats, misinformation, or tactics to undermine the public's trust in the electoral process." You also say, "The peaceful transfer of power is essential for ensuring stability in governance."
It kind of feels like you're not addressing the elephant in the room there. I mean, which candidate would you say has done more to draw into question the integrity of the elections or whether or not there will be a peaceful transfer of power?
ASA HUTCHINSON, (R) FORMER 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, FORMER GOVERNOR OF ARKANSAS (via Webex by Cisco): Well, the issue is that we have to illustrate our democracy across the globe as being the strongest democracy in the world, and that we can handle the peaceful transfer of power.
I was honored to join with over 100 former senators, congressmen, administration officials, and governors to sign this joint letter. And the purpose is not to look at either side particularly, but the purpose is to build public confidence in our electoral process that has served us for 250 years.
And also to make sure that we're thanking our poll workers -- those that are volunteering and working at the polls. Let's thank them and not certainly intimidate them.
And then finally, let's support the peaceful transfer of power that has served us so well. We need to continue to do that. And all the candidates, both sides, at every level need to pledge that they will honor the final result of this election.
[07:55:00]
BERMAN: Well, but that's what I mean. This isn't an abstraction. I mean, who would you say has a closing argument more in line with the message you're trying to send?
HUTCHINSON: Well, everybody can judge that for themselves, and I don't want to detract from the purpose of the letter.
Now, I will add that there's a lot of litigation going on right now looking at different elements in the states as to election integrity and --
BERMAN: Governor --
HUTCHINSON: -- whether they're following the right process (PH).
BERMAN: Governor --
HUTCHINSON: This is actually --
BERMAN: What --
HUTCHINSON: This is helpful to get these issues resolved in the right way.
BERMAN: Which candidate didn't respect the outcome of the 2020 election?
HUTCHINSON: Well, obviously, that's Donald Trump that initiated the January 6 rally. There's not any question about that. And we don't want to have a repeat of what happened in 2020. We want to build confidence and that's what we're doing. And obviously, history speaks for itself as to who was responsible for that.
BERMAN: So this is obviously a very important issue to you, and which candidate hews more closely to respect for institutions also I know is very important to you. Yet, you will not commit to voting for Vice President Harris. Why?
HUTCHINSON: Well, because I'm a Republican and I've always supported the Republican team even though I made it clear that I'm going to be writing in a candidate this year.
And again, John, I know we want to look at the candidates. But the whole purpose of this is let's build our democracy and to do that you have to have confidence, and that's the purpose of that joint statement.
BERMAN: And everyone should be thanking every poll worker they encounter or have encountered the last few weeks or for the next 24 hours.
Just in terms of politics -- not this message that you're sending -- how would you assess the closing messages from each candidate? Who do you think has had a better few days?
HUTCHINSON: Well, I think the momentum has shifted from time to time. I think the last few days Kamala Harris has made her case effectively.
And whenever you look at the undecided voters -- and I'm convinced there are some undecided voters out there -- they're either going to stay home, but they're also looking for a reason to vote for Kamala Harris. They are looking at Donald Trump and he's reached his peak. And so the question is whether Kamala Harris can effectively make her case in these closing days to those few undecided voters and get them out to the polls where they don't just sit at home.
And so, it's clearly going to be an interesting election night. But I think the momentum has shifted in the last few days with a very good closing message by Kamala Harris.
BERMAN: All right, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Always great to speak to you. Thanks so much for coming on this morning. I really do appreciate your time -- Kate.
HUTCHINSON: Thank you, good to be here.
BOLDUAN: More than -- more than 75 million Americans have already voted and millions more around -- millions -- millions and millions of people around the world are waiting and watching to see those results and what happens tomorrow and beyond.
CNN reporters are tracking this from around the globe. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MARC STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Marc Stewart in Beijing. Here in China the government is being very deliberate about not making any public statements about the election, though Beijing likely expects tension to remain high and may see pros and cons in the candidates.
For example, former President Trump, while at times unpredictable, has been critical of alliances such as NATO at a time when China is trying to establish itself as the leader of a new world order. Vice President Harris may bring some continuity from the Biden administration, focusing in on alliances and trying to control China's access to high tech.
Regardless, China will likely have to confront the issue of tariffs as U.S. lawmakers demand a level playing field in the global marketplace.
And as far as Chinese citizens, there is certainly curiosity. I get questions all the time. But people seem to be more concerned about their families and their struggles as opposed to what's happening overseas.
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: American elections are always closely followed here in Europe, but this time the stakes of the American election are being very closely watched not just in terms of the likely consequences of Donald Trump regaining office this second time and the consequences that would have on the global economy, potential trade wars -- the result of those tariffs that President Trump threatens to introduce on all imported goods -- what would that mean for European economies, of course, at the forefront of minds.
But here in the EU a lot of interest, of course, in what the security implications would be of a second Donald Trump term. The last time he became president there had been vast plans here in Europe to make the continent more strategically independent from its historic partner. Eight years on there are fears that Europe hasn't gone far enough in that direction -- not helped, of course, by the war in Ukraine.
