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Electoral Test of Trump's Second Term; Larry Sabato is Interviewed about Election Day; Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) is Interviewed about High-Stakes Races; Trial Resumes for Teacher Shot by Six-Year-Old; No U.S. Officials to Key Climate Summit; Trump Orders Preparations for Nigeria. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired November 03, 2025 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:32:29]

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: It's the last full day of campaigning today, the final day of voting is tomorrow. Democrats banking on high-profile races, governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, and the New York City mayoral race catching a lot of attention.

CNN chief data correspondent Harry Enten is here.

There's a real mixed bag here as far as ideologies go.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes.

SIDNER: We've got, you know, moderate candidate in Virginia. You've got a Democratic socialist in New York City. I guess the question is, how can they both be seen as bellwethers?

ENTEN: I mean the common denominator here is Donald Trump and Democrats are on the precipice of delivering a huge blow to Donald Trump in his second term.

What are we talking about here? Well, why don't we just look. Democrats lead all the key races. You go to New Jersey governor, that's really the only close one. Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat, up by six points. Abigail Spanberger, in Virginia, up by 10. Zohran Mamdani up by 16 points in New York City.

The bottom line is this, yes, there are ideological differences between the Democrats. But the key common component is they are all going after Donald Trump and all the Democrats lead from New Jersey to Virginia to New York City. They all lead the Republican and independent opponents.

SIDNER: How much is he impacting the cases? Never mind that they want to beat him. In their minds it's sort of like, hey, this is to show you that we can beat you. But how much is he affecting these?

ENTEN: I mean, look, Donald Trump is a huge, huge drag in all of these races. Look at his net popularity ratings. In New Jersey, he's 11 points underwater. Virginia, 14 points underwater. Not much of a big surprise in New York. He's 35 points underwater. And I will note nationally, in my aggregate of polls, he's about 13 points underwater. In our CNN poll, he's way below that, which looks a lot like New Jersey, a lot like Virginia.

So, these races, in my mind, could be huge bellwethers going into next year to understanding how Donald Trump is impacting these races. He is a huge, huge drag in -- across the board, New Jersey, Virginia and New York City.

SIDNER: Do these races tell us anything about the midterm as to what happens here and what might happen in the midterm?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, you know, I was mentioning, of course, Donald Trump being a huge drag, right? He's at his second term lows, not just in our CNN poll, but across the different polls that we were looking at this weekend. And why is it that these races are so important? Well, go back through history. Get -- jump in that Delorian. Look at what has happened when Democrats sweep New York City, New Jersey and Virginia governor. They won the U.S. House the next year five out of five times in the last 90 years. You go all the way back to the FDR administration.

So, the bottom line is this, when Democrats do well in these off-year elections, when they sweep New Jersey, Virginia and New York City, historically speaking, that means they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives the next time around.

[08:35:07]

And when we're in this national, polarized environment and Donald Trump is as unpopular as he is, I think that history is likely to hold if, in fact, Democrats do sweep tomorrow, which at this point looks more likely than not.

SIDNER: We will have to see. We also have some new polling numbers also that makes Democrats not look so good. So, it's kind of like wondering whether this historic norm will stay as per usual.

ENTEN: And that, my friend, is why we go 365 years to find out what happens next year.

SIDNER: All right, thank you so much, Harry.

ENTEN: Thank you.

SIDNER: Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, they're talking about Virginia there. Many eyes are on that battle between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

President Obama hit the campaign trail this weekend to try and give Spanberger a boost in this very final stretch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BARACK OBAMA, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: Abigail's opponent does seem to care a lot about what Trump and his cronies are doing. Virginia, you don't need a governor who puts party and ideology ahead of the people she was elected to serve. You deserve a governor who will think for herself and work for you. You deserve a governor like Abigail Spanberger.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Joining me right now is Larry Sabato, the director for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

It's great to see you.

So, we heard Harry Enten giving his very enthusiastic take, as he always does, Larry. What is the best possible outcome that you see for -- let's just start for the Democratic Party this week.

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AT UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, I've had a little less coffee than Harry. So, I would put it this way. Democrats are going to do well. They could have a sweep, at least of the top positions. That's very important. But the midterm elections are a year away. And in the Trump era, you know, hundreds of things will happen in the next year that could affect how people evaluate him and how people evaluate the candidates running.

But on the whole, Democrats desperately need this boost of enthusiasm and success. Nothing succeeds like success in politics and business. They have to start winning, and then people will feel better about them.

BOLDUAN: It is as basic as that sometimes. It truly, truly is. Then -- so then best-case scenario for Republicans come Election Day is?

SABATO: The best case would be pulling off an upset in New Jersey and winning that governorship. And New Jersey, while still Democratic, has been moving more in the Republican direction.

Maybe also picking off the attorney generals post in Virginia. The attorney general candidate for the Democrats has been involved in scandal. And so that is hurting him. And he will do worse than the other candidates on the statewide ballot. But we don't know whether it's bad enough to lose.

And Proposition 50 in California, that's important because it sends a signal about the voter's view of redistricting. And if it's a big vote, some polls have had Proposition 50, which the Democrats favor, going over 60 percent. If that actually happens, I think it would also encourage Democrats for the coming year.

BOLDUAN: Yes. And that then gets to kind of the eternal question always, which is, how much of a bellwether is any race looking ahead at the next? How much should anyone -- can anyone, do you think, read into the results come tomorrow when they look towards midterm election now one year away. As you said, 100 plus things is going to happen in the next year. SABATO: Yes. Well, my rule, and I'm old, Kate, is, it should tell you

a lot until the Sunday shows, the next Sunday shows. You should have a great prediction gambit. Everybody participating with very, very fixed suggestions about the future. And then you let it go as of Sunday. And then real events in the current day take over.

BOLDUAN: It's great to see you, Larry. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

SABATO: Thank you.

BOLDUAN: John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, with us now is Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland.

Senator, good morning. Nice to see you.

We've been talking a lot about numbers this way and that this morning. And the brand-new CNN poll, we did ask voters what their opinions of the parties in Congress were. Twenty-nine percent favorable for Democrats, 55 percent unfavorable. Why don't people like you, Senator?

SEN. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-MD): Well, John, it's good to be with you this morning.

The short answer is, at least for some time Democrats did not see the party in Washington fighting back more strongly against Donald Trump and his attacks on our democracy, on his failure to bring down prices. But also, Democrats do need to provide a better alternative to Donald Trump.

[08:40:02]

It cannot only be about going after Donald Trump. It needs to be about presenting alternatives.

In fact, I'm working on some proposals right now on the tax front to increase taxes on the wealthiest and make sure that middle class families, working class families, get relief.

So, I think we need to do more than just talk about these issues. We need to put forward clear plans that tell people where we are.

BERMAN: So, you think part of the message is that people want Democrats to fight harder? What does that mean when we -- we overlay that on the shutdown?

VAN HOLLEN: Well, the shutdown actually is something that the Republicans have been really responsible for because one of our key things in the shutdown is, number one, vote to reopen the government, but make sure Donald Trump does not get a blank check for his lawless activities, and deal with an issue Donald Trump claimed to care about, which was these huge increasing prices and costs. In this case, the big increase in health insurance premiums and other costs that is really unloading as we speak, because over the weekend people began to go into the exchanges, people who get their insurance through the Affordable Care Act, and they're seeing these skyrocketing costs.

So, people are understanding that Democrats are fighting to try to reduce their costs. And that is a major theme, frankly, John, in all these races around the country right now.

BERMAN: In a literal sense, it is Democrats who are voting not to reopen the government, right? The CR keeps coming up for a vote and it's Democrats in the Senate who keep that from passing. Senator John Fetterman, your Democratic colleague from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, he actually says that Democrats need to own the shutdown. What do you think about that?

VAN HOLLEN: Well, John, I voted seven times to reopen the government, but without giving Donald Trump that blank check, and also dealing with an issue that President Trump claimed he cared about, which is cost. These skyrocketing health care costs at the moment.

I saw Senator Fetterman responding to a question related to the Trump administration's decision to withhold food assistance programs. And, you know, clearly, he was misinformed about the fact that the Trump administration doesn't have to terminate the food assistance programs. They -- they claimed early on that in a shutdown they had to do it. But it turns out not only are they just choosing to do it because the Congress has made funds available specifically for the purpose of food assistance programs under this kind of circumstance, but federal judges have said that the law requires them to provide those food assistance programs.

So, what you've seen and the American people are seeing is Donald Trump trying to deliberately impose unnecessary pain on the country in order to achieve whatever objectives he wants. Instead, what he should be doing is coming to the negotiating table instead of traipsing all over the world and focusing on $20 billion bailouts to Argentina and, you know, cutting down the East Wing to build a ballroom. He should be at the table negotiating with Democrats to reopen the government.

BERMAN: You know, it's interesting. We do have elections tomorrow in several states. You keep on bringing up President Trump, which is -- makes some sense. But from a political standpoint, the Republican in New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli, is saying that if there's a pothole on the streets of New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat running there, will blame Donald Trump. How much do Democrats need to focus on President Trump, and you alluded to this, and how much do you need to be focusing on other things?

VAN HOLLEN: Well, there's a mix. I mean all the polls show that people are alarmed about Donald Trump's assault on our democracy, and our constitution, but also on the fact that he claimed to be a president that would bring down costs and prices for the American people. I mean you mentioned the New Jersey race. One of the big issues there is this big increase in energy prices, specifically electricity prices, that people are experiencing all over the country. Donald Trump has done nothing about that. We have new data centers coming online. We have A.I. demanding more electricity. Consumers should not have to pick up the bill for these big companies, some of the wealthiest in the world. And that's the kind of thing we need to focus on because that's the kind of thing voters care about in New Jersey and around the country.

BERMAN: Senator Chris Van Hollen, from Maryland, thanks so much for being with us this morning. Appreciate it.

Sara.

SIDNER: All right, next hour, the defense will start calling witnesses in the civil case where a former teacher, shot by a student, sued her former assistant principal for negligence. Abby Zwerner says her former assistant principal ignored warning signs the morning that she was shot by a six-year-old boy. Zwerner, who was badly injured in that shooting in 2023, is suing the school's assistant principal, Ebony Parker, for $40 million.

[08:45:05]

CNN's Jean Casarez has been following this trial.

We have -- saw this really emotional testimony that you have been watching where Zwerner took the stand. What do we expect from the defense today?

JEAN CASAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we expect their case to start in at 9:00 sharp this morning in the Commonwealth of Virginia. And what we learned on Thursday, which was the last day of court last week, was that they have expert witnesses that are flying in from out of state. They would be ready to go on Monday. So, we expect to see those today. And also they can put on fact witnesses because where the defense is really standing here is that, yes, Abigail Zwerner got shot through the hand into her chest. However, they are placing the blame really on her because word started spreading that day. Students were saying, he's got a gun. I see this six-year-old has a gun. And although teachers went and told the assistant principal really all through the morning hours, saying, what can we do here, and nothing was done, Abby stayed in her room, her schoolroom, and kept teaching and didn't go and report it at all. So, number one, and that would be probably for a fact witness.

But the expert witnesses are going to try to show to the jury limiting damages, that she is not worthy of $40 million or anywhere close to that. But also expert witnesses in the injury parlance, or the mental state. Because what the plaintiff is saying is that she is so injured physically, and we saw her hand, it's very, very puffy and she does not have all the dexterity that a normal hand has. Less than 50 percent is what the -- her surgeon said. But that she doesn't have the emotional injuries that she claims to have. Doesn't have the physical injuries to the degree that she says she has. And that all goes into the damages at the end.

So, I think the defense will really put on an aggressive case because she is asking for $40 million here to make her whole.

SIDNER: Yes, the whole case, though, is absolutely terrifying. She was just doing her job and that the assistant principal, other teachers said that they believed this child had a gun. It is a really, really difficult case for this former teacher. Jean Casarez, thank you so much.

You can stay up to speed with the entire trial by streaming CNN whenever you want to take a look at that. Jean is all over it. It's on the CNN app. To learn more, you can just scan that QR code on your screen.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Also, new video coming in showing the damage from a powerful earthquake that hit northern Afghanistan, and the death toll is rising. We've got this video to show you.

And a nationwide penny shortage forcing McDonald's to revamp how you get your change.

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[08:51:49]

BOLDUAN: So, for the first time in decades, the United States is skipping one of the world's most important climate summits. The Trump administration not sending any high-level officials to COP 30 in Brazil this month, which means the U.S. has no seat at the table then as nations are set to set new climate goals for the coming decade.

CNN's chief climate correspondent Bill Weir is tracking this one for us.

It's one thing to make a point. It's another thing to give away your seat at the table, Bill.

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. And that's the -- that's really the big story of this one. Countries like China and those in Europe will help set this agenda for decarbonization. The U.S. won't be there.

But what's interesting is the outrage or the frustration that came when President Trump says we're pulling out of the Paris Climate Accords has sort of turned to relief that they're not sending someone down there just to blow the thing up.

So, earlier this year, there were negotiations about, excuse me, plastic pollution that the U.S. says, if you vote for this, we'll hit you with tariffs or maybe visa restrictions. Same thing blew up a planned confab around maritime emissions from smokestacks on ships. They said if there's a carbon tax that comes out of this, the United States will punish you. There was fear that that would happen in Belem, Brazil, as the climate negotiators from around the world get set to go there. But the fact that they won't be there is a bit of a relief that they're not going to sabotage things.

BOLDUAN: It's also interesting. I just had the interior secretary on, and he was talking about how China is such a big polluter when it comes to processing of rare earths. I mean there's a lot of finger pointing going on between the world's two largest economies over the environment now. There really is.

WEIR: Absolutely. Absolutely. But what is -- what you cannot deny is that the Trump administration is trying to cling to the fuels of the 19th century, coal and gas and oil, while the rest of the world is moving to solar, wind, battery storage. And even much of the United States, 90 percent almost of new energy projects online waiting to get on the grid are solar, wind, and storage. Texas leads the nation there.

But what's interesting is there's a -- there's a play opening tonight at Lincoln Center.

BOLDUAN: Right.

WEIR: Came from London, very successful, called "Kyoto." And it's about the behind-the-scenes negotiations of the Kyoto protocol. This is COP 3. We're about to do COP 30. So, this is back in the '90s. And the anti-hero of this play is a guy named Don Perlman, who was a real- life oil and gas lobbyist, who tried to poison the entire negotiations. But in the end, the world came together and agreed, we should try to limit these sort of planet-cooking pollution. So, it's a story of hope that, at the end of the day, we're humans negotiating about very big things, and it can swing depending on how people come together.

BOLDUAN: Very interesting to hear your take as you're going to be tracking this COP 30 we are now at together.

WEIR: Exactly.

BOLDUAN: It's good to see you, Bill. Thank you so much.

WEIR: You too, Kate. You bet.

BOLDUAN: John.

BERMAN: Hear the dance numbers are great in that new show.

All right, new this morning, a British man is facing ten counts of attempted murder after a mass stabbing spree on a packed train that was traveling through central England. Police say Anthony Williams attacked passengers. The incident left at least nine people with life- threatening injuries. The man is also charged with attempted murder in connection with a separate incident that happened earlier in London.

Early this morning, a powerful 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan. At least 20 people are dead, more than 600 injured. That death toll keeps on rising as the hours pass and officials worry it could get even higher as the relief efforts just get underway.

[08:55:06]

McDonald's has announced it will start rounding cash transactions to some locations because they're running short of pennies. They'll either round up or round down to the nearest $0.05 when customers do not have exact change. Why? Well, the U.S. Mint made its last pennies back in August, so McDonald's, like a lot of places, running short.

I will say, Sara, I don't remember the last time I paid cash at McDonald's. It's really easy to use your phone and a credit card. So, this does not apply.

SIDNER: To be fair. This is true. But if you need some pennies, John, I have a whole jar of pennies just for you waiting on my desk.

BERMAN: Right. Yes. Value going up and up.

SIDNER: You're welcome.

All right, new this morning, President Trump is leaving open the possibility of U.S. military action in Nigeria as he accused the nation of not stemming violence against Christians there. The president has asked the Defense Department to prepare optics -- or options, excuse me, that could include troops on the ground or airstrikes.

The situation on the ground, however, is far from straightforward. Violence in Nigeria does affect Christians, but also Muslims, and is driven by religious, ethnic and resource-based tensions in that country.

Joining me now, Fareed Zakaria, host of "Fareed Zakaria GPS" on CNN. He also has a new book, "Age of Revolutions." It releases in paperback tomorrow. Make sure to get your copy.

They're always, Fareed, you're so good at just making us understand what's happening globally. Let's talk about what's happening with Trump in Nigeria. He's suddenly suggesting potentially putting troops on the ground or airstrikes. He's already threatened strikes inside Venezuela. And we've been seeing the multitude of strikes on boats in international waters killing more than a dozen people.

For a guy who was insisting he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping wars, how do you read what's happening now?

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS": It seems very impulsive and emotional. He possibly saw something on TV. It is very strange. The Nigerian situation is exactly as you said, Sara, very complicated. A lot of the violence people have heard about in Nigeria, Boko Haram, that terror group that took those schoolchildren we all remember, that was mostly Muslim on Muslim violence. Those are jihadi groups often taking, you know, killing Muslims. Not in all cases, but in many of them.

There is Muslim Christian violence. As you say, some of it is based on farmers versus goat herders.

The current president, Tinubu, has actually been trying his best to diffuse that kind of violence and is himself an exemplary example of Nigeria's kind of multi-religious tradition. He is -- he is Muslim, the president of Nigeria. He's married to a Christian woman who is an ordained minister. And he often talks about how that marriage is part of what he's trying to do. Nigeria is 50 percent Christian, 50 percent Muslim.

So, it's an odd place for President Trump to interject himself, particularly militarily. I suspect, like many of President Trump's, you know, emotional outbursts that will not actually lead to military action, that would -- you know, that could set off a kind of tinderbox in Nigeria. But we just have to wait and see. With President Trump, it's, you know, it's often you're trying to mind read this one man.

SIDNER: Yes, and that can be quite difficult.

I do want to talk to you about what -- speaking of President Trump, what he told "60 Minutes," particularly when it comes to those nuclear tests that he is talking about doing after some more than 30 years where these tests just have not happened.

Let me let you listen to what he told Norah O'Donnell.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NORAH O'DONNELL, HOST, CBS "60 MINUTES": So, why do we need to test our nuclear weapons?

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, because you have to see how they work. You know, you do have to. And the reason I'm saying testing is because Russia announced that they were going to be doing a test. If you notice, North Korea is testing constantly. Other countries are testing. We're the only country that doesn't test. And I want to be -- I don't want to be the only country that doesn't test.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: I was surprised to hear him say, we have to see how they work. We know how they work. We saw -- we were the one that used them on Japan.

But if the U.S. starts blowing off nuclear weapons, is this going to start a chain reaction with Russia and China following suit?

ZAKARIA: It almost certainly will. I'm not sure. You know, some of this is classified information and we don't have access to it. But conventionally, it's believed that Russia and China, and mostly everyone stopped in the mid-1990s. North Korea is the exception. But the major nuclear powers have tended to believe that they can figure out whether or not these weapons work without doing these underground tests, you know, that have all kinds of environmental issues. It also -- it kind of has the tendency to trigger more of an arms race.

[09:00:02]

But look, I think I know where President Trump is coming from on this issue.