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California Becomes Battleground for Nationwide Redistricting Fight; Polls Open in Key Elections Testing Trump Presidency, Democrats; White House Pins Airport Chaos, Ongoing Shutdown on Democrats; U.N. Report: The World Will Overshoot 1.5 Degree Climate Goal. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired November 04, 2025 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00]

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: Today, Californians will decide whether to adopt a new congressional map, and it's a move the Democratic leaders hope will help their party win five more House seats. The redistricting effort is being led by Governor Gavin Newsom and was in direct response to Texas Republicans redrawing their maps.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: If Prop 50 passes, it could have far-reaching implications in next year's midterms and even beyond. So, we wanted to give you a virtual look at what goes into these redistricting efforts and why it sparked controversy.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: Redistricting has sparked major political and legal battles, but what exactly is it?

Let's break it down using this hypothetical imaginary state as an example. Say our state has allocated five congressional districts based on its population. Each district should hold about the same number of people so that its representation in Congress is equal.

Redistricting typically happens every 10 years following the release of the U.S. Census. So, 10 years later, the newest census shows us that our imaginary state still has the same number of people, but many have moved around to different neighborhoods. So, the state redraws its five districts to balance things out.

The new map isn't quite as neat, but it is better representative of where people live. Now, what if our state's voters leaned something like this? Under these new district lines, the balance of power is three seats for party A, two for party B, and say in our hypothetical that party A is in charge of drawing the map.

They may be inclined to redistrict in a way that boosts their party's advantage. So, they might redraw their lines something like this, shifting the balance of power to four seats for A and just one for B. When district lines are drawn this way to give one party more power, that is called gerrymandering.

And what's the result? Voters might not be fairly represented. What's not hypothetical?

Both Democrats and Republicans use gerrymandering across the country. Under current law, racial gerrymandering or drawing lines to minimize the voting power of a specific racial group is illegal. But partisan gerrymandering is allowed under federal law.

And there are ongoing arguments about what a fair map really looks like and how to best represent a state goal. But partisan gerrymandering is allowed under federal law. And there are ongoing arguments about what a fair map really looks like and how to best represent a state.

So, when you see districts stretched and warped into abstract shapes, it can be a sign of gerrymandering. And those potential party gains, even small ones, matter. In recent years, control of the House has been decided by razor thin margins.

Even a single seat could determine which party controls the chamber. Last year, Americans elected 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. And now both parties are fighting for every possible seat ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Earlier this year, Missouri Republicans redistricted with a goal of eliminating one of the state's two Democratic held seats. Their target, the 5th District, home to Kansas City, one of Missouri's largest cities. In the last House race, the 5th District went about 60 percent Democratic to 40 percent Republican.

But under the new plan, Missouri's 5th District is carved into three pieces. Each piece is then combined with more Republican areas, diluting what was once a Democratic seat into three new districts that all lean Republican.

In Texas, Republicans have recently redrawn the map with the goal of picking up five more House seats, a move that then prompted Democrats in California to propose their own redistricting plan. That's why tonight, California voters will decide whether to approve Proposition 50, a measure that would authorize a new Democratic-drawn map, one designed to offset the Republican gains in Texas by aiming to secure five additional House seats for Democrats.

These new maps will have their first test next year in the 2026 midterms, when both parties will be fighting to tip the scale to determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ (on camera): And these fights are expected to get ugly.

Let's discuss with Karen Finney, a CNN political analyst and former senior advisor to Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. Also with us, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton. Thank you both for being with us.

Karen, what are you anticipating is going to come tonight? It seems like Proposition 50 is going to pass.

KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It does look that way, which is both good for Democrats in this redistricting battle, but also it's a kind of a psychic victory, given that, you know, Democrats in Washington have very limited power that they can really utilize. Our Democratic governors and attorneys generals have been the ones who really had to do the lawsuits and kind of take the fight to Trump, if you will. And so, I think people will look at this as this is one way of a governor using their power to try to stop the gerrymandering or to try to stop the impact of what we're seeing President Trump trying to do with these racial gerrymandering tactics.

KEILAR: Shermichael, what do you think? And, you know, knowing that this was kicked off by a mid-decade redistricting in Texas, and this is probably just one battle in this war, I mean, how bad do you see this as being for the country, this back and forth over the redistricting?

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, I mean, every single state will either be a red or a blue state. I think the idea of sort of purple states like my state of Virginia at some point, Brianna, to be quite frank, will just be a bygone era. That said, I think Republicans are likely going to have a slight advantage over my Democratic friends if you're looking at a redistricting delta.

And by that, I mean who's going to add or subtract to their overall vote count in terms of seats in the House. You're looking at Missouri, as Boris pointed out in the package. You also have North Carolina.

There are also a slew of other Republican states where Republicans not only control the state legislature but also hold the governor's seat. So, I think there is a likelihood for Republicans to be slightly more successful in this effort than my Democratic friends.

So then when we get to midterms, you start looking at the math and then you start wondering, well, even if Democrats can somehow continue to perform as well as they have done with the special elections we've seen so far this year, they've performed about 15 points on average compared to Kamala Harris and those same congressional districts last November.

The math becomes very, very tight. And so, the advantage that one could argue that Democrats would have if you're looking today to next year, they may not actually have that advantage come November 2026.

SANCHEZ: Overall, Shermichael, when you think about the impact that these moves are having on the ability of Congress to actually represent the people and the impact that it has on democracy, doesn't it just harm everyone overall? Doesn't it hurt both parties long term?

SINGLETON: So, I'll take off my political hat and I guess put on my philosopher's hat. Absolutely, Boris. No one benefits if the idea of bipartisanship is a bad word.

[15:40:00] If Democrats and Republicans don't feel incentivized to work with one another on the most consequential issues, whether it's health care -- we're having that argument right now -- or infrastructure or military or education for example, it's going to make things really difficult for the average lay person who relies upon a functioning government to pass legislation to their benefit. So, to be frank, no, it's not good for the country. No, it's not good for democracy.

But in terms of the politics, yes, it's good for Democrats. Yes, it's good for Republicans.

KEILAR: Yes, political fortune. It can be very good for what about Gavin Newsom? How is it going to be for him?

FINNEY: Well, it's certainly raised his profile, which has obviously been a goal of his over the last year. And I think if obviously, if they're successful, it will give him a springboard to continue having that conversation. I do want to say I think --

KEILAR: Did you -- what do you think, Karen, might he be doing?

FINNEY: Maybe we're --

KEILAR: Where with that go.

FINNEY: -- with that election coming that maybe like a big one.

KEILAR: Like a big one, right?

FINNEY: Yes, yes.

KEILAR: First for the big race. OK, got it.

FINNEY: Presidential aspirations, certainly. It would certainly help him and give him frankly, you know, it's interesting, like how the Democratic governors have chosen to handle Trump has been very different. If you notice from Whitmer, to Pritzker, right, some of that has to do with what they need from the federal government. But Gavin Newsom is one who has a lot of freedom to do a lot.

He's got a legislature that he can, you know, really control and work with. So yes, it's a good springboard for him for presidential.

SANCHEZ: The outcome of this vote on Prop 50 may also have a lot to do with Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi's future. She said that she hasn't decided whether she's running for reelection or not. She's 85.

FINNEY: Yes.

SANCHEZ: I was speaking to Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal earlier, who's been very vocal about having younger folks rise to leadership within the party. And I cited to her the statistic that in the House specifically, Democrats have double the number of folks over 70 --

FINNEY: Yes.

SANCHEZ: -- that Republicans have.

FINNEY: I heard you say that and I was like, what? You know, look, I actually look at it a little bit differently.

SANCHEZ: Yes.

FINNEY: I think it is more about one of the things the party has to do is rebuild our credibility and our trust with voters. And part of it is if you've been around a long time, and you're not seen as someone who has been able to deliver, then voters are like Nancy Pelosi, when she was the speaker, she delivered, she was got stuff done. So her age, I think, was less of the issue. So, I think that's part of what we're seeing is this desire, several governors, their mantra is get shit done, right?

And so, I just realized we're on cable, so I can say that. And so, I think that's part of it as well when we talk. But yes, younger, fresh faces with new ideas, but also building trust and credibility to say they can actually deliver on the things that they're talking about.

KEILAR: And Shermichael, I want to ask you about the New York City mayor's race, because President Trump offered this last minute endorsement of not the Republican candidate, but the independent candidate, former Governor Andrew Cuomo. What do you think the calculation or just the effect is there?

SINGLETON: Well, he's a New Yorker, so I'm not necessarily surprised. But politically, Brianna, I am happy that Mr. Mamdani is going to become the next mayor of New York, because I can tell you that Republicans already have scripts written to run campaign targeted ads in very close races next year. We're prepared for this.

We want to be able to make the argument to the American people that the Democratic Party is a party that represents further government control, more government control, a democratic socialism-like. We're not going to call it that. We're just going to call it socialism.

Most Americans will reject that, and the polling suggests that is indeed the case. And so, while I appreciate the president for endorsing Cuomo, I wish it was Cuomo, even though I'm not a Democrat. I think he would have done better for most residents there.

As a strategist, I love the idea that Mamdani is going to become the face of the Democratic Party.

KEILAR: Real quick, Karen.

FINNEY: He is one of the many faces, perhaps, I would say, of the party. But most importantly, I think there's a lot to be learned about the way Mamdani has campaigned.

That's what I hope Democrats take away from it. Go everywhere where people are, talk to them, hear their concerns, and focus on their needs. That, to me, is the most important lesson from New York.

Cuomo was running an old-style campaign that was completely ineffective.

KEILAR: We'll see how Mamdani does. That's going to have a lot to do with this. Shermichael, Karen, thank you so much to both of you.

SINGLETON: Thank you guys. Good to see you Karen.

KEILAR: And up next the -- good to see both of you.

The transportation secretary is warning of mass chaos in the nation's airports if the shutdown continues.

Stay with us for that.

[15:45:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: As the government shutdown drags on, the Department of Transportation says it may close some parts of U.S. airspace because of staffing shortages. Secretary Sean Duffy warned of, quote, mass chaos if the shutdown continues into next week. Earlier today, the White House was asked about whether people should fly, given Duffy's concerns.

Here's the press secretary.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The administration is encouraging Democrats to reopen the federal government so this chaos and disruption to our air traffic control system in the United States of America stops. We want to reopen the government so we can resume travel in the safest and most efficient way possible, especially as we head into the busiest travel season of the month.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[15:50:00]

KEILAR: CNN aviation correspondent Pete Muntean is with us now on this story. Pete, what is the situation today?

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, the delay numbers continue to climb today, Brianna. We're more than halfway through what we saw yesterday for the entire day. The delays for air traffic control staffing shortages keep popping up.

And both of Houston's airports are now under FAA-implemented delays. That's Houston-Hobby and Houston-George Bush. Also, Phoenix Sky Harbor on the delay list because there is not enough staff in the airport's control tower.

There's also shortages in the tower at Denver International Airport. Also, the facility responsible for low-altitude flights near Detroit, that facility very rarely on the list, has been about four times since the shutdown began, though the shortages in Denver and Detroit are apparently not deep enough yet to trigger mass delays.

It does seem that no place is safe from these shortages, as air traffic controllers continue to report to work without pay and naturally many of them calling out sick, though the Union of Controllers insists none of this is coordinated.

This past weekend was the worst for air traffic control staffing shortages since the shutdown began. And Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy just said in a press conference he simply just can't find money to pay controllers. It's not as easy as that. He also had a stark warning about what happens if the shutdown continues and controllers continue to call out.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEAN DUFFY, TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: If you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos. You will see mass flight delays. You'll see mass cancellations.

And you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MUNTEAN: A little bit of context here, though. The closure of airspace has essentially been happening in some ways, although Duffy putting a more dramatic spin on it. TSA security officers also not getting paid.

And that means these long lines at places like Houston, George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Sunday and Monday, the lines there stretched up to three hours. And the airport says, though, today, waits are down to about an hour, still pretty long when you consider the average TSA wait time is about five minutes.

The fix for these problems really can't come soon enough. And there's not much movement in Congress. Last week, air traffic controllers got a zero dollar paycheck.

They'll get another zero dollar pay stub the day after tomorrow. It's really tough for them.

KEILAR: Certainly is. Pete Muntean, thank you so much for the latest there.

And coming up, a new climate report says the world is failing to slow the rise in global temperatures and will not reach the goals set in the Paris climate agreement. We have details next.

[15:55:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: A new report from the U.N. says the planet is on track to get hotter, exceeding the global warming goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius set by the 2015 Paris agreement, which is an international treaty signed by nearly 200 countries to combat climate change.

KEILAR: The findings claim that countries haven't reduced pollution fast enough and will likely go over that target. CNN's chief climate correspondent Bill Weir is with us now on this. Bill, how dire is this situation?

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Brianna, it's bad, but it could be a lot worse. That's what I'm hearing from scientists today. Ten years ago, they were telling us that the world was on track to heat up by four to five degrees Celsius.

That's eight to 10 Fahrenheit, which would have been cataclysmic. Thanks to the sinking price of renewable energy, solar, wind and storage, thanks to the efforts of climate negotiations over the last decade. It looks like we're now on track to hit about 2.8 degrees of warming. Not as bad, but still not great.

Just for reference, at 1.5, we lose about 75 percent of coral reefs around the world. At two degrees, almost all of them are wiped out. It doubles the amount of people, the share of the population exposed to deadly heat as well.

But every tenth of a degree matters and will be measured in ecosystems and coral reefs and glaciers and human lives. So, it'll be interesting to watch this COP and see if this rallies people or deflates them.

SANCHEZ: On the point of this COP gathering in Brazil, delegates from around the world are going there. The Trump administration, as you reported a few days ago, not sending any U.S. representatives to negotiate. I mean, what does that mean broadly and for the Paris accord specifically?

WEIR: Well, yes, the U.S. and Donald Trump is very much the elephant not in the room. It remains to be seen if he'll try to sabotage these from afar, as he did with a carbon tax, a potential carbon tax on maritime shipping. That was set to -- negotiators were set to settle on that.

He fired off a True Social post, said don't vote for this. And the whole thing was postponed a year. He could still try to do that.

People like Gavin Newsom, a governor of California, part of a consortium, including J.B. Pritzker and big city mayors and others saying America is still in. California is the world's fourth largest economy and most days it is running on solar, wind and storage throughout the middle of the day. And so, to highlight the efforts that are being made at the city level, how many people do care about this, regardless of the politics of the United States right now?

But there's no denying that Trump pulling the U.S. out has undermined ambition. About 60 countries have delivered their updated plans. Here's what we want to do for the next decade.

A hundred countries have not. And it has taken the momentum away. China, for the first time, is promising to bend their carbon curve. That's a that's a positive step. But it is fraught. And this latest report really is deflating, heading

into COP 30.

KEILAR: What's the risk, Bill, to the U.S.? I mean, we know what the global risk is, but what's the risk to the U.S. of ceding that role of leadership on this issue?

WEIR: Well, it's it gives up the new post-carbon economy to China and Europe and which is leaning into that change.

[16:00:00]

They're still putting a lot of coal plants online in China. But at the same time, the U.S. is trying to cling to coal for the next hundred years. So, a big difference in approach.

KEILAR: All right, Bill Weir, thank you so much. We really appreciate it.

We should mention Jake Tapper and Erin Burnett begin our special election coverage at 5 p.m.

And "THE ARENA" with Kasie Hunt starts right now.

END