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Trump's Latest Approval Ratings; Tillis Warns of a Train Wreck for Republicans; Trump's Battle Over D.C. Golf Course; Author William D. Cohan is Interviewed about his New Book on Leon Black. Aired 8:30- 9a ET

Aired October 20, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:32:28]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Exactly two weeks until Election Day now, and some new numbers that show how Americans feel about President Trump heading into that big day.

With us now, chief data analyst Harry Enten.

So, there's this new poll out that says, you know, how President Trump is doing. How good?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes, how good? How good? Not good at all. Terribly bad. I mean this is a five alarm Trumpster fire. That's what we're talking about. I mean just look at these ratings.

OK, Trump's net approval rating hits all-time low. This is the Reuters-Ipsos poll. You know, at the beginning of his term, he was plus six. He was, ayyy, two thumbs up. We're talking Siskel and Ebert here. Now we're talking negative 35 points. The worst he has ever been in the Reuters-Ipsos poll. Among independents, he's 54 points underwater. I mean this is down there with Jacques Cousteau and the Little Mermaid. This is how low Trump is right now.

BERMAN: The worst he's ever been in the Reuters-Ipsos poll.

ENTEN: Worst ever.

BERMAN: Is this some kind of anomaly?

ENTEN: It is not some type of anomaly. This has been happening over and over and over and over again. Oops, I did it again, if you're President Trump. And indeed, sometimes you just have to go through the history books, OK. So, I was looking pre-midterm, October, the worst ever net approval ratings ever in any individual poll. And you can see that the top four spots for the worst are all occupied by a very similar looking gentleman. Sometimes the pictures really do tell the story. Trump, Trump, Trump, and then Trump. NBC, ABC, Ipsos, Reuters- Ipsos and the Pew Research Center all at least 31 points underwater. When I was digging through the data sets, the worst ever in an October was, in fact, Harry S. Truman, who was 30 points underwater. And these numbers exceed all of them.

BERMAN: So, worst ever in NBC.

ENTEN: Worst ever.

BERMAN: Worst ever in ABC.

ENTEN: I believe so.

BERMAN: Worst ever in Ipsos.

ENTEN: Worst ever.

BERMAN: In worst ever in Pew.

ENTEN: These are the worst, at least in terms of compared to other presidents before a midterm election in the October. These are the four worst ever regardless of any pollster compared to other presidents.

BERMAN: That doesn't seem like a great situation.

ENTEN: It seems, as I said, like a five-alarm Trumpster fire.

BERMAN: You brought up Harry S. Truman.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: And his low approval before the midterms.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: What has happened to presidents with this type of approval before a midterm?

ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, what are the closest historical comparisons that I could find? Well, it's these two guys. I mean minus 15 points or worse net approval at a midterm like Trump currently has, lost the House and lost the Senate. Yes for this gentleman -- wow, we've got a colored photo of Harry S. Truman, and yes for George W. Bush back in 2006.

[08:35:09]

So, the two historical comparisons that I think are closest to this one, the Republican Party is not going to like because Trump's historically low approval rating at this point below a midterm, at least historically, has brought not just the president down, but the House and Senate control with it.

BERMAN: Harry Enten in full --

ENTEN: Harry J.S. Enten.

BERMAN: In full technicolor this morning.

ENTEN: That's right. I feel like it's brought to you by Sony. BERMAN: Thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BERMAN: Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And despite his low approval rating and polls showing anxiety over the economy is the top issue in this midterm, President Trump is trying to paint a rosy picture, or rather a golden picture, that America is in its golden age right now. And he told -- as he told a crowd in Kansas, he doesn't think he gets enough credit for it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And we're in the golden age of America. We were in the dark ages. But I say often times, nobody appreciates what I did. I feel very sad.

And then I look up and I say, oh, wait, oh, wait, is this the Oval Office that we're in? Yes. Oh. Oh, I'm in the Oval Office. That means I'm president. I guess they do appreciate what we've done, right? Right?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Joining me right now is CNN political analyst Alex Thompson of "Axios" and Scott MacFarlane, the chief Washington correspondent for the MeidasTouch Network.

It's good to see you guys.

OK, so, Scott, you've got Trump saying that in Kansas last night. He said it in North Carolina today. And Thom Tillis is out saying a lot, the Republican senator from North Carolina.

Tillis saying, one, predicting a train wreck is coming in November for Republicans. And Tillis also telling CNN last night that he says he is seeing an intensity among Democrats and unaffiliated voters in his state at a very high level. And he's not seeing that with Republicans. And here is what he has to say about it. Let me play this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): I want Republicans to win. But we better recognize the challenge that's ahead of us. And incidentally, it's a challenge that I forecasted in April of 2025, not this April if we continued to take our eye off of the ball of the economy and getting immigration and the border right. And that's what we're seeing today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Scott, what is happening in North Carolina that you see? Is it even a competitive Senate race any longer? And if not, what is Trump doing going there? SCOTT MACFARLANE, CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, MEIDASTOUCH NETWORK:

Him going to Greenville, North Carolina, tonight is quite something, Kate. I covered his Greenville, North Carolina, rally in 2024. That made sense. It was a battleground state. But he's going to a community where the local Republican congressman won by an overwhelming margin in 2024. That's for Republican Greg Murphy. If they are playing defense or trying to send resources to Greenville to back up the local congressman, that's an indication the battlefield has shifted.

I haven't talked to a single political operative in Washington, Republican or Democrat, who thinks Republicans have a fighting chance at the Senate seat in North Carolina. So, the deployment of resources and of Trump is really curious. From Kansas to Alaska to North Carolina, these are very red areas traditionally. An indication they're playing an awful lot of defense where they didn't expect to.

BOLDUAN: That sure -- that sure does seem to be it.

And, Alex, then there's this, Democratic expectations. Because as CNN's Zach Wolf wrote about it, he wrote, "expectations for the party are so high that one could envision a fair amount of disappointment in the party and celebration among Republicans if Democrats don't shoot the moon on Election Day and take control of both chambers of Congress."

What are you hearing about that? Do the rosy Democratic predictions, is it setting Democrats up for failure?

ALEX THOMPSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I mean, possibly. I mean you could have a situation like Republicans did in 2022 where, on paper, Republicans took back the House. But the expectations game was such that it was seen as a huge disappointment and actually a win for Democrats. Democrats could see the same situation. They don't actually need to win many House seats in order to retake the House. And the Senate map, in all candor, is actually really favoring Republicans. That's why you see Republicans doing a bit of triage. That's why you have Trump in Kansas. And it's an attempt to try to save seats that actually are friendly territory, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas. And so you could see a situation where Democrats take back the House, don't win the Senate. And yet Democrats feel a bit underwhelmed. But that doesn't mean that the environment is still friendly for Republicans. But there is, you know, there are the real races in terms of votes, and there's also the expectations race. And those don't always align.

BOLDUAN: Yes. When a loss is a win. Welcome to American politics today.

[08:40:02]

Scott, on the latest on this East Potomac golf course, there's a hearing yesterday where the Justice Department attorneys tried to argue that the removal of the 400 plus trees was a coincidence. It didn't have anything to do with Trump's renovation plan for that golf course. The judge didn't seem to buy it and took the justice attorneys to task over Trump's tweets, saying that construction was beginning immediately. I give all of this by way of saying -- and I have people saying to me,

with the world on fire, quote/unquote, why should I care about another golf course and Trump, intentionally or unintentionally, cutting down trees? What are you seeing?

MACFARLANE: This is a proxy war, Kate, over a much bigger issue. The judge senses that the Department of Justice is defying her orders and that the Trump administration is circumventing the courts. It's about trees in a golf course. But Judge Ana Reyes, in an eight-hour hearing yesterday, was trying to pin people down as to why she thinks her orders are being ignored. So, yes, it's about trees and about golf in the more fundamental sense. But it's clear here the judge thinks we're going to have this out now, make sure the administration follows court orders. For the other, bigger things still to come.

BOLDUAN: Bigger things still to come. Perfect tee up.

Alex, you have new reporting on the first fight of 2028 that is already unfolding. Possible Democratic presidential candidates piling on another possible Democratic presidential candidate in Andy Beshear over Beshear's resistance in sending Dem governors association funds to support the Democratic candidate for governor in Texas. What is happening here?

THOMPSON: Well, this has just become a political mess for Andy Beshear, who has made clear he is considering running for president. And, you know, there are some Democratic strategists that think, you know, Texas is a big, very expensive state. He probably made the right strategic decision to not send money. But his handling of the interpersonal politics has been very messy, to the point that many Latino lawmakers have gone public with their frustration with Andy Beshear. There was an October 7th call in which he was not on the call. They were sort of led to staff.

I have Representative Sylvia Garcia on the record feeling that she was disrespected. You have Latino leaders, and you have to remember in the 2028 calendar now, Nevada and New Mexico are the second and fourth state, respectively. Latinos are incredibly important. And you have many Latino lawmakers and leaders openly criticizing someone that wants to run for president. It's become, you know, just a complete political headache for Beshear and the Democratic Party. And the reason -- and as a result, you saw J.B. Pritzker, Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore all basically publicly give, or privately sometimes, give money to the Texas governor candidate. A little, you know, subtle but not so subtle elbow while he's struggling with his own politics.

BOLDUAN: The theme of the day, when a loss is a win, welcome to American politics. And when maybe the right strategic move is the very wrong move long term, welcome to American politics today.

It's good to see you both. Great reporting, guys. Thank you.

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, the hero FlyDubai captain who fought off a savage attack by his copilot is speaking from his hospital bed now. Captain Smit Machchhar was badly injured while trying to fend off his attacker. Investigators say his copilot planned to crash the plane into Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. The captain shared that he did not think he would survive as he lay bloody on the cockpit floor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SMIT MACHCHHAR, FLYDUBAI CAPTAIN: To be honest, I was not very sure that I'd make it out alive from this. Did I give up? No. I can 100 percent tell you I did not give up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: Nor did the passengers there trying to help him.

CNN's Pete Muntean is joining us now.

It's remarkable what he did and that he survived all this. What more did you hear from him?

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Sara, I have to show you an exemplar weapon that was used in this case. This is a Boeing 737 crash axe. Normally carried inside the cockpit as emergency equipment. You can see the sharp blade here, the sort of pickax and the blunt end here. Prosecutors say the first officer in that flight turned this into a weapon to attack the captain. And what is so incredible about that new interview is Captain Smit Machchhar says the first blow to his head made him think that something had gone horribly wrong with the airplane itself. Only after subsequent blows did he realize that he was being attacked.

The interview was done by Emirati outlet "The National," English language outlet at a hospital in Abu Dhabi, where Machchhar is recovering right now.

[08:45:00]

And I want you to listen to his presence of mind. As he was taking these blows, he managed to unbuckle his seat belt, reach for the cockpit door, and then start to scream for help.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SMIT MACHCHHAR, FLYDUBAI CAPTAIN: Immediately my hand went to the knob, which opens the seat -- the door and screaming for my colleagues, screaming his name.

I did hear the cockpit door opening and there was some screaming conversation happened between my colleague and the guy. Immediately after that was the scariest thing that I heard and felt was the engines spooling down. When I say spooling down, it's the engine sound going from full blast to, like, which is not what you want at that stage in the flight. And the second thing was, I felt the aircraft nose steeply going down. (END VIDEO CLIP)

MUNTEAN: The power of that dive and the g force caused some of that airplane's rudder to come off, which we saw in some of those incredible images back on the ground. That effort to get help by Captain Machchhar was critical, and passengers and crew were able to intervene, overpowered the first officer. Two other FlyDubai pilots, who happened to be on board the plane, took control. The jet, though, still plunged about 16,000 feet in 30 seconds time, ultimately landed in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. Emirati prosecutors say the first officer, Hamam al-Hammami, intended to crash the plane into Israel's main international airport, an attack inspired by 9/11, Sara. Such an incredible save here (ph).

SIDNER: I mean, it is incredible to hear from him and what he went through. And then you showing us that pick axe that was used as a weapon against him, just a remarkable story. And thank God it ended the way that it did with everyone alive on that flight.

Pete Muntean, thank you so much. Great to see you.

John.

BERMAN: Pete Muntean, you can't just bring an axe to a live shot without telling us it's going to happen.

SIDNER: I mean --

BERMAN: Also, I mean, that was a little bit of a big surprise for morning TV, you know.

MUNTEAN: You should have seen the looks I got from security, John, as I carried this through the D.C. bureau here. They were like, please make sure that that's a prop. I was like, yes. You know, I've brought a lot of weird things on the set in my day here at CNN, but this has to be one of the weirdest. Only $141 at the Boeing store.

BERMAN: I'm sure security was like, oh, here comes Pete Muntean again. Good morning, Pete.

MUNTEAN: Yes.

BERMAN: All right, thank you very much.

All right, new reporting on the donor list for President Trump's ballroom project. Who is on that list?

And it turns out you can't steal a live flamingo and take it to your room in Las Vegas and get away with it. A conviction in this case and what could be a pretty serious sentence.

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[08:51:42]

SIDNER: This morning, President Trump is doubling down on his plans to overhaul a public golf course in Washington, D.C., following a heated court hearing where the judge flat out said she could no longer just trust what the DOJ lawyers were saying in court. In a late night post on Truth Social, the president posted these images of East Potomac Links golf course, calling it a trash island. The president also dismissed the legal challenge to his plans to transform the property, which he is calling unsafe.

Now, earlier this week, Trump said construction on the course would begin immediately, but lawyers for his administration told the judge there is currently no final plan. Judge Ana Reyes responded to the inconsistency, saying there is no way we're going back to, you know, just trust me, we'll give you notice. We are way past that. She set a requirement of at least three days' notice before any irreparable changes are made and temporarily blocked any further tree cutting.

Joining me now to discuss this is Liz Oyer, a former U.S. pardon attorney.

Look, when you see this, the DOJ saying one thing in court, the president posting something else, at this point, does defying a judge become contempt of court?

LIZ OYER, FORMER U.S. PARDON ATTORNEY: It certainly could be. The judge would be well within her discretion to hold government lawyers in contempt. She has actually been very even tempered throughout most of this litigation until now. Now she has -- she sees that giving the government the benefit of the doubt has really not paid off. They have let her down. They have demonstrated that they are not worthy of the benefit of the doubt. So, if she were to hold them in contempt of court at this point, that would be an absolutely appropriate sanction.

SIDNER: Look, I want to move on to another issue here because we're seeing like all the trees that were cut down and that's sort of irreparable. You can't change that. The judge complaining about that and saying she was not given really good notice there.

Let's move on to another story that I know you have highlighted. "The Washington Post" looking at this list that it got of secret names of all the major donors behind the $300 million in donations for President Trump's White House ballroom project. There were 57 donors who contributed at least $100,000 or more according to "The Post," including, you know, people that had, you know, money from companies and individuals that had business before the federal government, or, in one case, a donor's family member was seeking a pardon.

As a former pardon attorney, what safeguards are supposed to prevent donations like these from becoming a way to try and buy access or influence?

OYER: Yes, there's a whole host of federal ethics rules. Some of them are actually laws of Congress, and other ones are internal policies, long standing norms that have been enforced by organizations like the Justice Department. None of those laws are being enforced by anyone. None of those policies are being enforced by anyone right now. And that is a tremendous problem in terms of allowing corruption to influence every aspect of governance. The donors to the ballroom include sort of the who's who of major

corporations Apple, Google, NVidia, Lockheed Martin, many others. And they're all seeking favorable treatment from the government in some respect. They're seeking government contracts.

[08:55:00]

They're seeking dismissal of government investigation. In some cases they're seeking pardons. They're individuals seeking pardons. And they're finding that donating money to the ballroom is a very effective way to get that special treatment. And the only reason that is working is because the ordinary laws and regulations that prohibit this sort of pay-for-play access to the government are not being enforced.

SIDNER: I do want to ask you about one example that you have talked about that involves the daughter of international banker Julio Herrera Valentini, who committed about $2.5 million to the ballroom, and then Trump later pardoned her father in his federal bribery case. What would investigators need to establish to determine whether there was an improper exchange in any of these cases? How hard might that be to prove?

OYER: Yes, this is a pretty stunning example because the money changed hands and then the pardon was forthcoming very shortly thereafter. If the government -- if future Justice Department, this Justice Department's not going to investigate this, but if a future Justice Department could establish that there were a quid pro quo, that the donation was made in exchange for a pardon or to influence a pardon, that would potentially be criminal conduct that could be prosecuted.

In this case, one piece of evidence that very strongly suggests that this money was given to influence a pardon is the fact that the daughter of Mr. Herrera Velutini, who made the donation, she had no history of making political donations other than a $20 donation back in 2020 to Pete Buttigieg. So, the fact that she is suddenly donating millions to causes supported by Donald Trump is very strongly suggestive of influence peddling.

SIDNER: Liz Oyer, we do appreciate you coming on early this morning for us. Really appreciate your insight.

John.

BERMAN: All right, a new book explores the rise and fall of Wall Street billionaire Leon Black and the private equity giant he cofounded, Apollo Global Management. Black resigned from the firm in 2021 after an independent law firm investigation into the millions of dollars in payments he made to Jeffrey Epstein.

With us now is William Cohan, founding partner and Wall Street correspondent at "Puck." He's the author of "Money to Burn: The Unvarnished Truth about Leon Black, Apollo and the Rise of New Wall Street."

And, Bill, I got to say, this book is an extraordinary piece of financial journalism. I had much more fun than I thought I was going to have reading it and I learned so much.

I think for those of us without Bloomberg terminals, what we know Leon Black for now is being part of the Epstein investigation, having paid $158 million to Jeffrey Epstein over the years. After investigating and writing as much as you did, what do you think you can definitively say about his relationship with Epstein and what is still unknown?

WILLIAM D. COHAN, FOUNDING PARTNER AND WALL STREET CORRESPONDENT, "PUCK": Complicated, John. Complicated. No surprise. I mean, by far $158 million is a mind-boggling number for any individual to have paid Jeffrey Epstein. More than anybody else. Leon, who in hours and hours with me of on the record interviews. You know, Wall Street guys don't often go on the record with people like me. But Leon was on the record with me from the beginning. I don't think he once said, you know, this is off. We -- you know, I can't answer this. He answered all of my questions directly. I believe honestly. Maybe we'll never know but -- for sure because Jeffrey Epstein is dead. But when it came to Jeffrey Epstein, he believes that Jeffrey Epstein provided him with crucial financial tax and estate advice that the high-priced lawyers he had consulted with on Wall Street couldn't provide him. And then he vetted that information with them and then changed various of his estate and tax planning documents to reflect what Epstein had told him and to try to avoid a big tax hit.

BERMAN: There is a relationship that Leon Black had with a woman, which was instrumental in his downfall, as it were, from Apollo. What did you learn about that?

COHAN: Well, a lot. You know, he did have relationships with women who were not his wife. He was forced to pay one of those women who tried to extort him for $100 million, John, $21 million.

BERMAN: That's a lot of money.

COHAN: That is still a very lot of money. He actually -- Leon actually wore a wire, like in the wire, like HBO, "The Wire." He wore a wire to various dinners and lunches where this woman who he'd had a consensual affair with was trying to extort him for this $100 million. They settled at $21 million for an NDA. She ended up breaking that NDA after he had paid her $9 million. And then that led to a -- that led to Leon having to leave Apollo more -- sooner than he thought he was going to.

BERMAN: For novices like me, I think this book also is a good explanation of the growth of private equity and the role it plays in our society.

COHAN: In private credit, yes.

BERMAN: What is -- again, I throw these terms around like I know what they mean, and I barely do.

So, but what's -- what is -- what did -- what is the big takeaway we should all have from its role in society now and if it's good?

[09:00:01] COHAN: Like -- well, good. I mean good is a value judgment, right?

BERMAN: Yes.

COHAN: I mean, do we -- do we want our companies to be financed?