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Polls on Senate Races; Witkoff Wraps up Meeting with Putin; Russia frees American Stephen Hubbard; Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) is Interviewed about the Starlink Slowdown; IPhone Duo Launches Friday. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 21, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:32:47]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: So, we have new CNN poll out just this morning and showing that Democrats are leading Republicans by ten points now in the race for control of Congress among registered voters. Much of that fueled by concerns of, yes, about the economy, the desire for change, and people just simply not happy with the president.

CNN's Harry Enten running the numbers and running into frame yet again.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hello. Hello.

BOLDUAN: You're also finding that Democrats are competitive in some unusual places.

ENTEN: Some unusual places, right.

Kate was talking about that national generic congressional ballot. But, of course, at this point, I think most of our eyes are focused in on the United States Senate, right?

BOLDUAN: Yes.

ENTEN: That's really what I think the question sort of is at this point. And I want you to take a look at some key Senate race Dem poll margins.

Look at this. These are all states that Donald Trump won by ten points just two years ago. And look at this. They're competitive in Kansas, which, of course, hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1932, or winning one. Iowa up by a point, though well within the margin of error. Texas, James Talarico, three-point advantage in Texas. But again, very, very close. Alaska, Mary Peltola, we're talking about a three-point lead there. And then in Ohio, Sherrod Brown up by four. And these are all in states that Donald Trump won by at least ten points back in 2024.

So, what we're seeing is those national leads that Democrats are having, including in our own CNN poll, seem to be funneling down to the state level in these key Senate races. BOLDUAN: I need the history here because -- so how -- how have polls

with Democrats leading Trump --

ENTEN: Yes.

BOLDUAN: Won -- in Trump won states, how have they performed normally?

ENTEN: OK. So, I know a lot of our viewers, I get this question perhaps more than any other question, which is, can we trust the polls?

BOLDUAN: Yes.

ENTEN: We feel like we've seen this song or we've seen this dance before. We've heard this song before. And you know what? There is reason to be cautious. There is reason to be cautious.

BOLDUAN: Yes, trust no one.

ENTEN: Trust no one. Trust no one. Trust me and trust my mother. She was a great doctor. That's what I'm talking about here.

There is a reason why you should, in fact, be nervous if you're a Democrat and perhaps be, you know, there's some reason for a little excitement if you're a Republican. GOP outperformed the final Senate poll averages. I want you to look by the state's prior presidential result. Ergo blue states, the states that Trump lost, and then the red states that Trump won. Look at this. The GOP is far more likely to outperform their final Senate poll averages by 4.1 points in the states that Trump won.

[08:35:06]

And we know in this election cycle, Kate, that the Democrats need to win in a lot of Trump states in order to win control of the Senate. And not just Trump states, but states that Trump won by double digits back in 2024. So, you see this 4.1. If this was fought in blue states, we really have not seen that Republicans outperform their polls in the blue states. It's really concentrated in the red states. We saw it in 2018. We saw it in 2020. We saw it in 2022. We saw it in 2024 as well.

BOLDUAN: What's the term for this, Democratic overestimation or Republican underestimation?

ENTEN: That is the great question. I'm not --

BOLDUAN: What do you -- what do you think?

ENTEN: I tend to think that what's probably going on is there are some Republican voters who are, simply put, not getting picked up by the polls.

BOLDUAN: So, then what does it mean for the Senate?

ENTEN: And what does it mean for the Senate? That is, I think, the key question. If, in fact, if we have the 2026 Senate map, but you take the polling averages and then you say that, hey, the Republicans will outrun the polling averages by 4.1 points in the states that Trump won, look at this, this is, I think, the key nugget. Republicans would maintain control of the Senate with some room to spare, 52 to 48, because they would win in Michigan, right? They'd hold on to Ohio. They would hold on to Texas. They would hold on -- coming to Kate's side of the board -- they'd hold on to Alaska.

BOLDUAN: Git.

ENTEN: Yes, I'll come back to my side of the board. So, the bottom line is this. Yes, Democrats are ahead right now. If the polling averages end up being the result, Democrats win control of the Senate. If we have the same average bias we've had in the past, well, I don't know.

BOLDUAN: I don't know says Harry Enten. So, you just got to wait till the end.

ENTEN: I think you're going to have to wait till the end to see if the past biases of the polling averages in the red states hold. If they do, it's going to be a good night for Republicans. But, hey, history is made to be broken.

BOLDUAN: Kate bias, John Berman is extremely handsome this morning.

Hey, Chippy (ph).

ENTEN: That's a Harry bias as well.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Wow. Wow. Plus or minus four percent on that.

BOLDUAN: It's within the margin of error.

BERMAN: Within the margin of error.

BOLDUAN: So I can say whatever I want.

BERMAN: Thank you very much.

All right, breaking news, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff has just wrapped up a three hour plus meeting with Vladimir Putin in Russia. Witkoff urged trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. He wants those to resume. And he said there is, quote, "momentum" after he just met with Ukraine's leader, President Zelenskyy, in Norway yesterday.

CNN chief global affairs correspondent Matthew Chance is in Moscow.

What are you learning, Matthew?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, well, you're right, that three-hour meeting has come to an end. It took place a lot earlier than any of us here were expecting. Just before it went ahead, there was that release of Stephen Hubbard, the 74 year old U.S. citizen, originally from Michigan, who was captured during the full-scale invasion of the -- of Ukraine back in 2022. He's been languishing in a Russian penal colony for the past four years. And we know that, you know, President Trump has lauded that release as essentially deferential to him.

In terms of the substance of the talks, though, I mean, remember, Witkoff went there with the idea of presenting new proposals to Russia. He's just come out of meetings with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, of course, to try and bring an end to the Ukraine war. But, you know, there is no word yet on what progress, if any, has been made. Ahead of the meeting, there was a brief spray. There were comments made. Witkoff thanked Putin for releasing Stephen Hubbard. Putin praised the recent deal, agreed with President Trump to supply millions of barrels of diesel to the U.S. and to global markets, which involved, of course, lifting sanctions on Russia. He suggested that there could be more economic cooperation as well, potentially supplying much needed fertilizer to the United States as well.

So, you really get a sense of what the emphasis is and the priorities are of these two -- these two sides. I mean certainly from the Russian point of view, they see the future, not as doing a deal over Ukraine, but as doing economic deals with the United States. And I think they know very well that appeals to President Trump, John.

BERMAN: Yes, it does. The economic deal is trying to -- trying to perhaps influence the president. Also, the release of that U.S. prisoner who had been held by Russia for four years.

Matthew Chance, thank you very much.

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, to discuss this more, joining me now is CNN chief national security analyst Jim Sciutto, who is here with us this morning.

Look, you -- this morning, the president did post about the release of American Stephen Hubbard, saying that the United States, out of respect for President Trump, speaking of himself in the third person, was not required to give anything in return, an unprecedented situation for Russia. There was no swap necessary for this release, he said.

What we do know is the president has already pledged to buy Russian diesel, as we just heard Matthew Chance say, lower the sanctions against Russia. And he's attacked Ukraine's President Zelenskyy. Is this really Russia giving something for nothing in return, Jim?

[08:40:04]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Absolutely not. The president is helping Russia in many concrete ways. He is buying Russian diesel. That delivers cash to Russian coffers to continue the war. Clear cut. It's a clear cut win for Putin.

His administration has throttled the Ukrainian military over the course of the last week, both with slowing down Starlink, whether you believe that was Elon Musk acting independently or somehow with the guidance of the White House is an open question. But regardless, the U.S. has throttled Ukraine's ability to defend itself, right, because it uses Starlink Starshield, the military grade Starlink, to fire interceptors at incoming Russian drones. And in addition to that, Ukrainian officials have told me they are convinced that the U.S. reduced intelligence sharing for early warning on incoming Russian ballistic missiles. Both those things are ones where Ukrainians can say, because of that, Ukrainians died, right? Because we didn't get an early warning of an incoming Russian ballistic missile, these people died in this attack. Similar on those Starlink slowdowns.

And the final thing that the president is doing for Putin, and this is not entirely new, let's be clear, is he quite deliberately repeats Putin talking points and Russian propaganda on the state of the war. Yesterday, to hear him in the Oval Office say that Russia is advancing unstopped on the battlefield, it's just factually not true. Battle frontlines largely frozen. And, in fact, Ukraine has been taking back territory over recent weeks. And that gives an impression that Russia is destined to win, right? Which, again, helps Russia's position.

I don't want to say that the release of an American held for years by Russia is insignificant. It is significant, certainly for his family. And in recent history, having prisoner releases can be a gateway to broader agreements. We should keep that in mind. That said, the recent history with Russia shows that those prisoner swaps don't lead to broader agreements. Paul Whelan released a couple of years ago, and the war only got more intense, right?

So, it's a good thing that an American is coming home. Doesn't mean that the relationship is fundamentally changed.

SIDNER: I just want to dig in a little bit to this "Wall Street Journal" reporting that you had mentioned, that it was, they're saying, it was Elon Musk, according to their sources, who actually was the one who ordered the slowdown, the Starlink slowdown, the comms slowdown that blindsided Ukraine, you know, leaving it without the communications it needed to help to fight against Russia.

Musk, though, said earlier and initially that the decision was up to the military and the president himself. So, "The Post" is, though, reporting that some of their sources are claiming that Musk and Trump did discuss this matter prior to the decision to slow things down. But U.S. officials, some of them, saying that, no, this was musk acting unilaterally. Taken all together, what does this ultimately mean for the future of the relationship between Ukraine and the United States and this war when you have someone who can just slow things down at any whim?

SCIUTTO: Listen, either explanation for the Starlink showdown is troubling because either the administration directed Musk to do this, and therefore it was part of a broader turning of the screws on Ukraine, right, reducing intelligence sharing on ballistic missiles, slowing down Starlink. And, by the way, I've spoken to Ukrainian and European officials who believe that is exactly what happened, right? They don't believe administration explanations that this was technical, that there were weather issues with intelligence. They just don't believe it. The alternative is that that man there, the head of a private company,

made a deeply significant and impactful U.S. national security decision on his own, right? That he just decided to stop helping a country at war. And that's also troubling, right? That's an enormous amount of power to place in that man's hands, given that it has an effect on U.S. policy. So, either of those explanations, I think, is troubling to Americans.

But I will say, having spoken to Ukrainians for the last week and a half, from last weekend when they first got a warning from the Trump administration, remember this, Sara, the Trump administration warned Ukraine that we will do two things. We will reduce intelligence sharing --

SIDNER: Right.

SCIUTTO: And we will disrupt weapons purchases via the pearl (ph) system, you know things like Patriot interceptors, if you don't stop striking Russian diesel. And what happened in the wake of that? We saw those things happen. I didn't mention that earlier, Sara, because it's also the interceptors that got slowed down.

SIDNER: Yes. That's right.

SCIUTTO: So, you know, they made a threat, the administration, they followed through on the threat. And, you know, from the Ukrainian perspective, that's a pressure campaign.

[08:45:00]

SIDNER: Jim Sciutto, thank you so much for putting all of this into context. It is important. Appreciate it.

John.

BERMAN: All right, with us now, Congressman Pat Ryan, a Democrat from New York, on the Armed Services Committee.

You heard Jim's reporting there. You see "The Wall Street Journal" reports, Elon Musk is the one who slowed down Starlink. There are some questions about whether it was a discussion with the administration, including the president. What questions do you have?

REP. PAT RYAN (D-NY): A longer list than we can get to this morning. I mean, let's zoom out and remember too, the president promised two years ago he was going to end this war on day one, right? Now we have the richest man in human history in Elon Musk, our first trillionaire, who's also spending over $350 million in these midterms happening in less than two weeks, making, as Jim I think rightly reported, a unilateral decision about U.S. foreign policy. So, there's a lot -- a lot of questions there. And these are exactly the kind of things, by the way, that we are absolutely going to be holding aggressive oversight around on the Armed Services Committee and in the new majority that I believe we'll have in two weeks, because the American people see this for what it is.

BERMAN: You'll bring him to testify? Will you bring Elon Musk in to testify?

RYAN: Absolutely. I mean, look, he can't have it both ways. Either be a private trillionaire or making foreign policy decisions. So, clearly, he appears to be making foreign policy decisions. He needs to be accountable to the American people.

BERMAN: Any laws broken here?

RYAN: You got to imagine. It feels a lot to me like a term we talked about a few years ago on this topic, which is quid pro quo. I mean, there are a million questions about what are the motivations here? What are the -- what are the corruption profit motivations? What are the political motivations? I mean, thank God an American is coming home. That is great news. But our democratic ally is getting abandoned and Putin is committing war crimes, bombing innocent civilians because Starlink is down and the defenses are down.

BERMAN: You talked about what would happen if the Democrats get a majority in the House. Obviously, you have the Armed Services Committee. There have been questions about Pete Hegseth. "Punchbowl News" was reporting the other day about a groundswell of support to try to impeach the secretary of defense. Would you be supportive of that type of investigation and action?

RYAN: He is the most incompetent and immoral secretary of defense we've had in 250 years, and that pains me and infuriates me. And this is not even a partisan thing. Right before Mike Johnson, Speaker Johnson, sent us home early, a Republican introduced articles of impeachment for Pete Hegseth that I believe we're going to pass, which is why Johnson sent us home early. That will be on the table right when we get back, even before the Congress changes.

BERMAN: Do you think it's worth the time and the effort?

RYAN: I think he's doing such grave damage that it is.

BERMAN: All right, we have a new CNN poll out today, which I should note shows Democrats ten points ahead in the race for Congress right now among registered voters, which is good for Democrats, I imagine. But this same poll does show some issues here. You can see, Democrats are only 35 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable, which isn't that different than Republicans. Why?

RYAN: Both parties have been not solving the problems of the American people for too long. I got a very purple swing district. People are dissatisfied, rightly so, with Congress in general, with the leadership in both parties. We have to take this, Democrats, if given the honor to take the House, as a mandate to win people's trust back, not to just assume people are unhappy with the president, rightly so, but we have to deliver for them. We've got to lower housing costs, health care costs, grocery costs, utility costs. That is what we're going to focus on.

BERMAN: So, that's my question. The question is how will you do that? Because in the same poll we asked people, what happens if Democrats win control of Congress? The country would be better off, just 39 percent, worse off, 34 percent, and 27 percent say no different. So, specifically, you know, give me the checklist. What are the first three things that you would push to have done if Democrats take control?

RYAN: This is what I'm optimistic about. There are immediate things we can do to relieve this pressure. Number one, roll back these tariffs. Tariffs are taxes. They have been punishing small businesses across the country in my district, and all of us, as costs have gone up.

Number two, end this war in Iran that was supposed to be three weeks, that's now over eight months, that has gas at almost $5, diesel over $6, home heating oil in my district is up 60 percent as the weather cools down. Ending this war and stopping -- and repealing the tariffs would immediately lower cost pressure.

The other thing we need to do is, we need to seriously take on corruption. We need to clean our own house, banning stock trading by members of Congress. I believe we need term limits. We need to show the American people that we are fighting for them.

BERMAN: How much pressure do you think a speaker Hakeem Jeffries would be under from Democratic socialists, many of whom stand to win in this election?

RYAN: I think we are -- you're going to see a unified, maybe not unanimous, but a unified Democratic Party that's actually fighting for the American people.

[08:50:06]

We are so sick of seeing Trump and his cronies, all of whom were sitting in the front row at his inauguration two years ago. Remember, not his family, not the cabinet. It was Musk and all his billionaire and trillionaire friends. We're sick of seeing them do well while all of our people, all of us, are paying the price. And that's what we're going to turn around.

BERMAN: Congressman Pat Ryan from New York, thanks for coming in this morning. Appreciate it.

RYAN: Thank you.

BERMAN: Kate.

BOLDUAN: Here's a quote from an ally to President Trump, "you can't trust anybody here." Sources are now describing to CNN a fear taking hold inside the White House if Republicans suffer big losses in this election, and specifically how the president will react to that.

And Pikachu, they stole you. A hunt underway for thieves who made off with nearly $1 million worth of trading cards, including lots of Pokemon cards.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BOLDUAN: A woman in Florida has been charged with a DUI after police say she tried to pick up a child from school while intoxicated. She was seen slurring her words in the school lobby, even struggling to get through the school door.

[08:55:03]

And then this happened.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You're -- you're not able to drive, OK?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I can drive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, you're not.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Remember to count out your steps. Nine steps. Counting out. And then turn around.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE) I can't.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can't count.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I didn't counting (ph).

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ma'am, at this point, you're going to be placed under arrest, OK?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because you're not in a position to drive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Oh my goodness. The school resource officer reported her behavior to police. She was arrested and then charged with driving under the influence.

This morning, California police are investigating after nearly $1 million worth of trading cards were stolen from a FedEx truck. That includes Pokemon cards and sports cards. The truck was parked in front of a business that authenticates the cards and other sports memorabilia when it happened.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIAN NICALEK, THE OC DUGOUT: The value is definitely there. It's seen as another asset class now. It's not just stocks, bonds and putting money in the bank. Like, you can -- you can put money into cards. And whether it's Pokemon or sports, there ,is a huge following, you know, from across the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Huge following. One collector says some of his cards were among those taken and many he calls irreplaceable. The company is working with collectors to get that money back.

Thousands of people gathered today in Saint Peter's Square for Pope Leo's first weekly general audience after undergoing surgery for lung cancer. Today's public appearance helped reassure the faithful and marked another important step forward for the pontiff, who's 71 years old, as he continues to recover. The pope pledged to gradually return to work as doctors had announced the procedure was successful. And this morning, he thanked supporters and all those in audience for all of their prayers

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

POPE LEO (through translator): The first thing I would like to say to you is thank you. Thank you for the support of your prayers. Thanks be to God for his generosity. Let us all renew our trust in the goodness and mercy of God.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: All right, the iPhone Duo officially launching this Friday. Apple's first foldable iPhone. The biggest change in nearly 20 years to the company's most important product. But the price tag, it starts at $2,000. In this economy, that price is a hard pill to swallow for a lot of families.

CNN's tech editor Lisa Eadicicco got her hands on one of them.

You spent, I think, about a week testing this out. And I guess the big question is, is it -- is it worth it? How did it work? What did you think?

LISA EADICICCO, CNN TECH EDITOR: Yes, Sara. So, after about a week with this device, the big takeaway for me is that the only reason anyone should even really consider buying this is if you really want a big screen that you can fold down and put into your pocket. That is really the big deal here.

This screen is 7.6 inches. It's almost about the same size as an iPad mini. And I have to say, once I started using this for a lot of things, it was hard to go back to my regular phone and look at everything on a small screen again. And also the crease in the middle of the screen really isn't noticeable. You can barely see it.

But one thing that really stood out to me is that a lot of apps in my testing were not optimized for this bigger screen yet. So, developers will likely update them. The phone isn't even out yet. We still have time. But as someone who's been spending a week with this, it really sometimes can take you out of the experience if you open an app and it kind of looks like that in the middle of the display.

Now, you can expand that a little bit, but it still doesn't feel like what you should want if you're paying $2,000 for this device.

That said, a lot of apps have been updated over the past couple of days. But, yes, it's definitely something to watch. SIDNER: But the apps are an issue. And also a lot of people might

wonder about whether that crease is going to change over time as you open and close it.

EADICICCO: Yes. And that's the big question, right? And it's impossible to tell until I've had this device for a long time. But I will say, I've tested a lot of different foldable phones from companies like Samsung and Google. They've come a long way over the years. Durability in these devices has come a long way. And using this, it does feel pretty sturdy. It doesn't feel fragile at all when I'm opening it and closing it. And I even dropped it a couple of times and it seemed fine. So, I do feel confident that this will hold up, but it's impossible to know without extended use.

SIDNER: But for $2,000, I mean, people can get, you know, a really nice computer or even a pro.

EADICICCO: Yes.

SIDNER: And this phone is $2,000. I mean, how does --

EADICICCO: It's a lot of money. It's more than most people pay for rent in this country.

SIDNER: Rent. Yes.

EADICICCO: And its -- $2,000 is the same price as an entry level 14 inch Macbook Pro. And that's a full-on laptop. It's a lot of money.

So, I do think that this is not going to be for everyone. This is really for someone who watches a lot of video, or maybe does a lot of work on their phone. But, yes, it's a lot of money, but people seem excited about it. Preorders are already pushed out till January.

[09:00:00]

So, we'll have to see.

SIDNER: All right, we will have to wait and see on that. Thank you so much, Lisa Eadicicco, testing that out. Seems like you kind of like it, but it's a pretty high price.

EADICICCO: Yes.

SIDNER: All right.