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"We'll Come After You": Candidates Warned Against Betting On Own Races; Rays-Brewers Set To Square Off In World Series Game 1; Oil Prices Surge As Trump Hints At Renewed Strikes On Iran. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired October 23, 2026 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:31:45]

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Just days to go until Election Day. There's mounting evidence Republicans are losing quite a bit of ground with young men, a voting bloc that was crucial to President Trump's re- election victory just two years ago. In the new Harvard Youth Poll 58 percent of young men 29 and under say they would vote for a Democrat over a Republican in Congress.

It comes as both young men and women are deeply concerned about the country. Just nine percent of the young Americans polled say the country is headed in the right direction -- nine percent -- compounding the issue for Republicans. Early voting data, so far, shows Republican turnout lagging among younger voters in several key states.

CNN's Steve Contorno is joining us now. Steve, you recently spoke with some young male voters. And I guess the question is, is the trends seeming to match what we're seeing in this poll? What did you find?

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: It really is, Sara. And I've been talking to young men in Michigan in particular, really for the last two years, and it has been striking to watch their transformation to this exuberant, youthful presence at Trump rallies and in support of the president in 2024, to growing increasingly skeptical of him and his policies, to now full-blown disillusionment and disenchantment by what it is like to live under his presidency.

And yes, the economy is the top issue for many of them. There are obviously frustrations about the cost of getting by day-to-day. I -- you know, I was at a tailgate where the price of beer came up very often, but they also were concerned about their futures. Is AI going to take their jobs and is Trump ushering in this technology? Is the American dream still within reach? Can they buy a home, start a family, or are they going to be living with their parents for years after they graduate?

And it's really forcing them to reconsider their own career paths. One person telling me he's going from being a senior about to graduate in data sciences to considering the priesthood because it feels more secure to him.

Just take a listen to what some of these young people are saying.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I voted for him, I can't lie, but seeing how he's just been a tyrant with his power, to be honest with you is the best way to describe it, starting wars that were not needed to be started. Gas prices have continuously gone up. I drive a truck. I have to pay $100 for gas every time I fill it up. It's a little bit ridiculous and just a lot of the moves he makes are just spearheaded and they're not smart at all for the state that we're in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just basic necessities, you know, lower gas prices. We want to be able to buy a house. We want to be able to have a family. And I don't -- I haven't seen -- and those things were promised to us, and so we are all hopeful. And I think that's why the majority of my generation was backing those type of values. But I think that's shifting over his presidency, where we're not seeing those things come to fruition.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CONTORNO: Now both those individuals told me they are leaning toward voting blue in that state's critical Senate race, one that could decide control of that chamber.

[07:35:00]

And it's quite interesting because just two years ago -- take a look at our CNN exit poll. Between Trump and the Vice President Harris, support for what was basically split among 18 to 29-year-olds. You just saw that Harvard youth poll. I talked to a Republican operative who's close to the White House who said, "The kids are demoralized." So Republicans recognizing this is going to be a problem for them but they're running out of time to reverse it, Sara.

SIDNER: Yeah. The war and the cost of things -- those two things seem to be the thing that is really fueling their discontent.

Steve Contorno, great reporting from you. Thank you so much. I appreciate it -- Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: So House Democrats, they like their chances come Election Day. Their leader, Hakeem Jeffries, says he is still worried. The word he's using, diabolical, seen as Manu Raju, caught up with him and sat down with him in California -- Manu.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MANU RAJU, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hakeem Jeffries is absolutely bullish that Democrats will win the House in November. That would put him in line to be the next speaker because of concerns over the cost of living, Trump's policies, the Iran war, tariff policies, and the like. And they're spending a lot of money in parts of the country where Donald Trump won overwhelmingly -- districts that Trump carried by more than 10 points. They think they can flip some of those districts.

They also think they can flip a district like this one in the San Diego area. This had been a Republican district, but Democrats pushed through a gerrymander of district lines, and now they could add up to five seats, including this one in San Diego. And Jeffries believes that they will absolutely add those five seats.

I asked him about not just the Democratic prospects, but whether or not Republicans could hang on to House.

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): Well, you have to assume, as we've done from the very beginning, that Republicans are going to try to come up with any diabolical scheme to prevent November 3 from being a free and fair election.

RAJU: What do you mean by that?

JEFFRIES: Well, we've been planning from the very beginning to push back against all of the voter suppression efforts that they've tried to jam down the throats of the American people. Now, up until this point, we've successfully stopped their scheming.

RAJU: But are you saying that's the only way they can hold on to power?

JEFFRIES: I've said that from the very beginning, that they -- listen, they failed the American people. Donald Trump and Republicans aren't running on issues.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. With us now, CNN political commentator Kate Bedingfield and Pete Seat, the former White House spokesperson for President George W. Bush.

And friends, I want to shift from Hakeem Jeffries in the House to the U.S. Senate here. On this map, you can see the yellow states are the states that Cook -- the Cook Political Report still lists as toss-ups. Of these states, Democrats would need to win four of them to get to 51 to control the Senate.

And I just want to show you two of the most recent polls we have from Fox News, right? Texas -- look at that -- 49-49 James Talarico, Ken Paxton, OK? That's Texas. In Maine, a brand new poll from Fox overnight has that at 49-49. Same as Texas -- very, very close.

So I just want to go over scenarios with you just for argument's sake. In those races, let's say they stay Republican, OK? Then you see Democrats at 47, Republicans at 48. Democrats still need to win four of these five races. Let's say they hold on to Michigan, OK, Abdul Al- Sayed. Say he prevails there. Then they need to win, Kate, three out of these four -- Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, and Ohio. Even in Ohio where Democrats may have a slight edge in the polls that gets them to 49.

How good do you feel on election night if this is your map needing to win two of the three of Alaska, Kansas, or Iowa to take control of the Senate? I know that was a long windup, but I landed the plane finally, Kate.

KATE BEDINGFIELD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER BIDEN WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: I actually -- I think this is a good reality check actually for Democrats because I think we need to level set a little bit. That the map -- the Senate map has always been tough for Democrats this cycle. I mean, in order -- as you've laid out here, in order to win the majority, Democrats have to win states that Donald Trump won in some cases by double digits in 2024. So I think anybody who is suggesting that the Senate is a slam dunk for Democrats at this point, I'm not so sure I agree with that.

Now, I think all of the fundamentals are indisputably moving in Democrats' direction. You heard in the previous segment those young men articulated the frustration about Donald Trump better than I could. They were -- you know, people feel frustrated that he hasn't delivered on the promise to bring down costs and Democratic candidates are able -- have been able to press really effective campaigns holding him accountable for that.

So, you know, I think Democrats have every reason to be optimistic. You've got candidates in some of these races -- you know, we have a candidate in Iowa who is running just a phenomenal campaign. Sherrod Brown running an amazing campaign in Ohio. I mean, these are candidates who are well-suited to their states and who are making great cases in an environment where people are really frustrated with Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

[07:40:10]

So Democrats absolutely should be optimistic. I don't think anybody should be doing a touchdown dance about the Senate just yet.

BERMAN: So, Pete, how helpful is it in this environment when the president is traveling in the country, going to states like Iowa, campaigning in Iowa, and talking about Vivek Ramaswamy's ad in Ohio, right, which attacks Amy Acton, really, largely for claims she made of being raped and abused when she was a kid?

Listen to what the president said in Iowa about Ohio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You mean you have a mother that said terrible things about -- well, who knows the daughter? She really said she was a horrible liar. I mean, it was crazy. And he made a commercial and he put it up, you know, like I would do. So I told him, leave it up and look upstairs and say, thank you, God, very much. I appreciate it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: How good of a campaign message is that? Not just if it was Ohio, but to travel with that message, Pete?

PETE SEAT, FORMER WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH, FORMER SPOKESPERSON, INDIANA REPUBLICAN PARTY: Well, we know that President Donald Trump lives by the same motto as Tim Allen's character in "Galaxy Quest," -- "Never give up, never surrender." He's going to double down and then triple down and then quadruple down on these things. I think it's plausible that the Ramaswamy campaign asked the president to weigh in on this because they were tiring of the dissent both inside and outside of Ohio.

I think the Ramaswamy campaign made a calculated judgment to put this ad out there. It sounds to me like they initially wanted to spring it on Amy Acton in a debate. They didn't get a debate, so they decided to release this ad and didn't necessarily expect the pushback that they've gotten and maybe asked the president to weigh in to get people to zip it and hopefully move on. But if we know anything about Donald Trump, he doesn't move on. He's going to keep bringing this up over and over.

But I did appreciate -- very quickly, John -- your wind-up because that is the less anxious I have felt about this election in quite some time. Democrats have to have an almost perfect night on Election Day to take over the Senate.

And, you know, we know that polling is largely unreliable in the era of Trump. It tends to suppress Trump-only voters -- the type of voters that are key to Republicans winning in some of these competitive races. And we know that Democrats have some pretty poor candidates that they have to run, like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. That one should be a cakewalk, and it's not.

BERMAN: Let me add to your anxiety, if I've helped take it away, Pete, because also this morning, this is a live look at oil prices now. Brent crude back up over $114 a barrel, the U.S. over $100. Gas prices went up two cents overnight.

Kate Bedingfield, for all the talk about nasty ads in Ohio or other things, I mean, to what extent is this the story of the campaign, and is this what Democrats really should just be talking about for the next 11 days?

BEDINGFIELD: Yes, it is, quite simply -- easy answer from my perspective. Yes. I mean, people are -- they are feeling the pain. They're feeling how expensive it is to fill up their cars. They are -- and it's not just that they're feeling the pain, but they're actively blaming Donald Trump for starting this war in Iran that has no -- essentially no purpose and that the White House has never been able to articulate why we're doing it. And so it's not even -- you know, it's not just that people are frustrated that the cost of oil and therefore the cost of gas is going but they also actually blame Donald Trump specifically for it.

So yes, this is absolutely where Democrats should be to close out this election.

And I would -- you know, I just would push back a little bit on one thing Pete said. I mean, I don't think there's any universe where Michigan, a state that Donald Trump won in 2024, is ever a slam dunk.

But Abdul El-Sayed is exciting voters who have not been excited about the Democratic Party. He is building a broad coalition. And I think that he's energizing folks in that state who would have -- would have otherwise not been interested in coming out to vote. So the idea that he is somehow giving up a state that should have been a slam dunk, I don't think that's -- I don't think that's the right analysis of the situation in Michigan.

BERMAN: Kate Bedingfield, Pete Seat, great to see both of you. Thank you both for humoring my setup. And Pete, I understand you're headed to the World Series for the 21st straight year tomorrow, which means you've seen three Red Sox World Championships, the winningest team this century. Thank you both very much. Enjoy yourself, Pete.

SIDNER: The Yankees fans are revolting in the studio.

All right. This morning, a top federal regulator is warning midterm candidates against using inside information to bet on their own race. The message is clear, don't do it or we'll come after you. The official says his agency has already scrutinized possible insider trading tied to the upcoming midterms.

[07:45:03]

We should note that CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but CNN editorial employees are not allowed to trade on Polymarket predictions.

CNN's Marshall Cohen is joining me now. I remember that you're reporting that Kalshi, in August, already suspended a Republican House candidate in North Carolina for betting on her own race. What are regulators saying about this?

MARSHALL COHEN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Well, they're issuing a pretty clear warning. As we've been talking about all year, Sara, the prediction markets are a huge part of this election. It's never been like this before. You can go on Polymarket or Kalshi and bet on any single race. If it's on your ballot, you could probably bet on it, and that creates some risks.

I had the opportunity to talk about this with a top federal regulator, David Miller. He's the head of enforcement at the CFTC. That's the federal agency that polices this industry. And he had a clear message for campaign staffers, party officials, candidates that if you're thinking of cashing in in the final stretch of this race on your inside information, you should think twice. He says they are watching and he says they will come after you. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: Big picture, is the agency investigating any midterms-related activity for potential manipulation or insider trading?

DAVID MILLER, DIRECTOR OF ENFORCEMENT, COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION: If you're an employee, be it a campaign staffer or working for a company or whatever it is, odds are that you signed some kind of employment agreement at some point that provides a duty of confidentiality. If you go and you take that information and go and trade on an event contract that's premised upon your job, your candidate's role, odds are you're misappropriating that information and you're committing insider trading. And we're going to look at that, and we'll come after you if that's --

COHEN: OK, so --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: Sara, he made pretty clear that this is a top priority for them in this final stretch. He said he's got a whole team that's ready for November 3, election night, with all their surveillance tools and they will be watching.

And this is a very well-founded and legitimate concern. Already this year, like you mentioned --

SIDNER: Yeah.

COHEN: -- Kalshi has come out and say -- to say that it has found at least six candidates running in this cycle who bet on their own races and everyone I talked to in this space is convinced that there's a lot more out there.

SIDNER: Yeah. And people should know -- I mean, you know, they do their own polling with inside some of these campaigns, so there is information they may have that the public certainly would not have.

Marshall Cohen, great reporting from you. Thank you so much. I do appreciate you -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: Gas prices skyrocketing more than 30 cents in two days in two key states this election. What is behind this surge? We're going to dive into that.

And major U.S. banks saying that they have detected unauthorized AI agents inside customer accounts acting without any user instruction. Bank execs racing to figure this out now.

And for more stories that you need to know to get your day going, my show "5 THINGS WITH KATE BOLDUAN" is streaming on the CNN app and CNN All Access -- the other side -- right now and every morning.

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[07:52:26]

BERMAN: Did you know there's still baseball to play? The World Series hasn't even started yet. It begins tonight. The Tampa Rays in Milwaukee to play, I think -- to play the Brewers in game one of the World Series. Am I right, Andy, that it's in Milwaukee?

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yes, I am standing in Milwaukee, John, this morning.

BERMAN: Thank God you're in the right place.

SCHOLES: This one's on the field as usual. But -- yeah, right. Good thing I didn't go to Tampa.

This is shaping up to be one of the coolest World Series of our lifetime. It's only the second time in more than 100 years that we've got two teams in the World Series and neither of them has ever won it all. The Brewers -- they became a franchise way back in 1969. They've only made it to the World Series once before. That was in 1982. The Rays, meanwhile -- they were born in 1998. They've reached the World Series twice before they ended up losing both of those.

This matchup, it's also the rare, best record in the American League versus the best record in the National League. Only the fourth time we've seen that since 2000.

These two teams very similar. Neither rely on home runs to win, neither have much World Series experience, and both teams know what winning this World Series would mean for their fans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GARRETT MITCHELL, CENTERFIELDER, MILWAUKEE BREWERS: I know it's going to mean a lot. And not only does it mean a lot to them, but it means a lot to us. And so we know and we feel that. But we're excited for the opportunity to go out there and do it.

CEDRIC MULLINS, CENTERFIELDER, TAMPA BAY RAYS: It would be huge. You know, it's -- it would be the first World Series for essentially all of us.

CHRISTIAN YELICH, DESIGNATED HITTER, MILWAUKEE BREWERS: It's what you dream of. It's what you play for and, you know, I think all the guys are really excited.

CHANDLER SIMPSON, LEFTFIELDERS, TAMPA BAY RAYS: Both teams are reaching towards a goal for the first time and that's -- I feel like that's a different level of hunger that you're going to see out here throughout the series. And it's going to be a dogfight.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: Now we talk about ticket prices a lot, but nothing compares, and I mean nothing compares to the ticket prices we are seeing for game one of the World Series tonight here in Milwaukee. The get-in price just for a seat in the upper deck right now, it's going for more than $2,400 on StubHub. That shatters the World Series record price for a ticket that was set in that World Series in 2016 between the Cubs and the Guardians.

So, you know, John, they say that, you know, it's a once in a lifetime experience. I guess it truly is certainly based on what people are paying here in Milwaukee to come to this World Series.

BERMAN: Given that they've never won, you are going to witness history one way or the other. So maybe it's worth it if you don't need like a car or to pay for college or anything.

Andy Scholes, great to see you. Enjoy the game tonight. I'm looking forward to it -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: Yeah, no kidding because he's not paying $2,500 to get in the door.

BERMAN: That's right. He gets in for free.

[07:55:00]

BOLDUAN: I mean, Andy, talk about rubbing it in people's faces -- geez.

Let's move to this. This is helping a lot right here. Breaking news. Oil prices jumping to five-month highs this morning. Here's a look at where they stand right now. There you go. This comes as President Trump is hinting at possibly launching new strikes on Iran.

This morning, gas prices in two battleground states are worth talking about. Ohio and Michigan. In Ohio gas prices shot up 39 cents in two days, in Michigan prices up 33 cents in two days, in two states most closely watched this election for where the balance of power is headed right now.

CNN's Matt Egan joins us right now. I kept seeing this headline and not believing it. What has happened with this?

MATT EGAN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, Kate, talk about an October surprise, right? You got gas prices going through the roof in two of the biggest battleground states just days before the midterms.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

EGAN: This is largely being driven by refinery problems in Illinois.

BOLDUAN: Yeah.

EGAN: But let me just run you through the numbers here. Zooming in on Michigan in particular. Forty-eight hours ago, $4.44 was the average in Michigan, not cheap.

BOLDUAN: This week. This week,

EGAN: This this. Literally Wednesday, $4.44. But look where we are now, $4.77, a 33 cent increase in 48 hours. I mean that is very rare. And it's not just Michigan. When we look at the broader region, look at this. Wisconsin was $4.16 this past Wednesday; $4.33 Indiana, up by eight cents.

BOLDUAN: That's bad, yeah.

EGAN: Illinois -- look at this. Another increase here. It's a big increase. But Ohio, this is actually the biggest one of all. A 39 cent increase in the average price of gas in Ohio.

Now this is just going to obviously reinforce all of these cost of living energy sticker shock frustrations that have really dominated this election cycle and really hurt Republican candidates. Now, analysts say that this is largely being driven by a -- an outage

in Illinois. ExxonMobil has a major refinery in Joliet, Illinois, and the company did confirm to me that yes, they are having operational issues, but they haven't specified exactly what went wrong and they have not given any sort of timeline for when this refinery will get back.

BOLDUAN: That's the biggest part of the problem is it's so tight because of refineries --

EGAN: Exactly.

BOLDUAN: -- getting kicked offline and when one little blip happens --

EGAN: Exactly. You know, normally when prices are lower, when refineries are operating normally around the world, this is not a massive problem. But because you've got outages in Russia because of the Russia-Ukraine war, and obviously in the Middle East, plus China is holding back exports.

Now, just to look at where we are. Michigan is the state experiencing by far the biggest increase in gas prices over the past year. Nothing's even close. This is an even bigger increase than what we've seen in California. Obviously, prices are up all around the country, but Michigan, the biggest battleground state in this midterm, is also the state experiencing the biggest price spike at the pump.

BOLDUAN: Matt, thanks for being on this.

EGAN: Thanks, Kate.

BOLDUAN: I really appreciate it -- Sara.

SIDNER: All right, thank you both.

And as gas prices spike like that in Michigan, two presidents are hitting the ground in the battleground state this weekend, President Trump and former President Obama. The Senate race there between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has become one of the most contentious matchups of the year.

Joining me now is Chris Hertel, the Michigan Democratic Party chair. Thank you so much for being here this morning.

I mean just for -- to you quickly. These insanely high prices for gas that have spiked, topping 30 percent in just the last couple of days because of this refinery issue and the fact that they were already high due in part to the Iran war -- I mean, do you think this extra spike is going to be like the extra thing that pushes voters to the polls?

CHRIS HERTEL, CHAIR, MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: Yeah. So for me, what we're seeing is a -- that's from this president. What this president promised was that prices would go down on day one. It's day 400 and we're seeing those costs skyrocket across (audio gap). And so people were promised that there would be (audio gap) more foreign war -- people in Michigan and prices are just a reminder of that failure.

SIDNER: All right, we're going keep trying this. We just want to note that we are having a little bit of trouble with your audio, but it looks like it's stable now.

So let me ask you this because, you know, there are a lot of issues in this race that are being brought up and we're hearing now from your predecessor, the former chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party, telling voters not to vote for anyone in the Michigan Senate race, saying you don't have to vote Republican, nor do you have to vote for El-Sayed, saying Democrats deserve leadership that unequivocally rejects rhetoric threatening Jewish communities.

Here's how he put it on Fox News.