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Decision Day In Iowa; Why Iowa Is Different; The Ron Paul Appeal; Perry Looks For Votes In Iowa; Newt Gingrich Speaks To Supporters; White Powder At State Attorney's Office; Reality Family Endorses Rick Santorum
Aired January 03, 2012 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Definitely a race to the finish in Iowa this morning. The Republican candidates are blitzing the state, racing the clock and we're just 10 hours away from Iowa's presidential caucuses.
Now, heartland voters will crush some dreams and they're going to fuel some others. And the six candidates campaigning in the state are hoping for the most elusive Iowa export, political momentum pushing them toward the big White House.
Now the race is too close to call according to "The Des Moines Register," but Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum still surging and in third place.
Today, the candidates are scrambling for last-minute support, too, the Gingrich and Perry campaigns holding events minutes from now. We'll check in on those.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann appear at a rock the caucus event. That is going to happen later this hour.
All right, Newt Gingrich has seen his popularity plunge in recent weeks and he's trying to make up some of the ground with the bus tour that is actually blanketing the state right now.
We're waiting to hear from him to arrive at this hour's stop, Ellie's Tea and Coffeehouse. That's in Muscatine, am I saying that right, Christine?
We're going to take a closer look at the Gingrich campaign and others, and CNN political editor, Paul Steinhauser is in Des Moines. So Paul, Gingrich went from predicting he won't win Iowa to saying that he's going to score an upset win. So what's with the shift in confidence?
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Yes, lowering expectations. I love it, Christine is keeping you and me and everybody else honest. She's an Iowa native and that's great on all these pronouncers.
Kyra, three or four weeks ago, Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, was the frontrunner here in Iowa. He was the frontrunner nationwide, but we all know what happened. A barrage of negative ads here in Iowa have really brought his poll numbers down.
His electability numbers as well as Iowans have second thoughts now about the House speaker and maybe some of his baggage. About two hours ago, he was joining Soledad on CNN and here's what he said about his chances tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think it will be a very big turnout tonight and I think a lot of people are going to walk in still trying to decide what's the right thing for America and what's the right thing they want to do as Iowans to start this process.
So I think we could win. We were after all up by 13 points and I think there are probably four of us in a position to win this come late tonight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEINHAUSER: And regardless of what the finish is for him tonight, the campaign tells me he's moving on, he's going to be in New Hampshire and then he's moving on to South Carolina where he thinks he can still do well. He was high in the polls in South Carolina and Florida a couple weeks ago, but we haven't seen anything recently -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: What about Rick Santorum and Ron Paul both appearing at the same event later this hour, right? So, what are their campaigns saying today?
STEINHAUSER: Yes, well, first event and you mentioned it before. It's called "Rock the Caucus." It's part of the rock the vote efforts, which are trying to get young people out. It's going to be nearby here at Valley High in West Des Moines.
And we'll see Bachmann there as well, but you know, for Santorum and Paul, let's start with Santorum. Kyra, we've been talking about this. This was a surprise story.
He was an afterthought a month ago in this campaign, but the former senator from Pennsylvania has zoomed up in the polls and now he's challenging Paul and Romney for the top spot.
He's very popular for the social conservative voters who really dominate on the Republican side here. As for Ron Paul, Kyra, we've talked about it as well. Devoted, energetic, enthusiastic followers and they'll caucus tonight regardless of what the weather is.
Paul is going to be going maybe all the way to the convention, he is dedicated and determined and he has very, very fervent followers -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, let's talk a little bit more about this, a little bit of a deeper conversation, shall we? Chief political correspondent Candy Crowley in Des Moines with us. We got the audio hitch worked out there, Candy. Well, it's because you are busy chasing down all the candidates and what I understand you just spoke to Mitt Romney moments ago. So what were you able to get from that conversation?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, exactly what you might expect from someone who is -- would love to have a win, they do think they're going to do very well here, but I said, so, are you going to win tonight?
He said, well, I think we'll do, and I think we'll be in the top three. Gee, thanks. I think we all pretty much, you know, understand that that's likely to happen.
And I said, listen, do you think if you win tonight it's the beginning of the end? Because he's sitting very pretty in New Hampshire and that really gives you a head of steam as you move into the other primaries.
He said, no, no, no, no, we've got a long way to go. So pretty typical candidate answers. He feels great, et cetera, et cetera, but nothing to chance here. I think tonight you will see Romney -- some of Romney's sons out at these caucuses.
You know, before everyone votes and writes down who they want on a slip of paper and puts it in a box, people can get up and speak on behalf of their candidates. So they've got Senator Thune here, who is going to perhaps speak at one of these caucuses.
Senator Callan, former senator from Missouri may do so as well and the Romney sons may be out. So, do they feel good? They do because this is not a state that opened its heart to Romney the last time around when he dumped $10 million into the state trying to win these caucuses.
And only to see Mike Huckabee who was, you know, underfunded walk away with it. So, they're feeling good. He has put in a lot of last-minute effort here. What they -- and honestly, if they walked away and were second to, say, Ron Paul, that would be OK with them.
What they'd really like is a win, but either way they think that they would look pretty good going into New Hampshire.
PHILLIPS: Well, what do you think? When it comes to the Romney camp, and I don't know if you were able to get this when you just snagged him, but maybe somebody else in the camp there, who do they see as the biggest threat?
STEINHAUSER: Listen, I think the biggest threat, two of them, really, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. Why, because they look at Santorum and they look at Ron Paul and they do not at the moment see two candidates who really could go toe to toe with the machine that Romney has built up. If it's a long race, if we go through June, as we did with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the person most situated to do that is Mitt Romney.
He's got the money. He's got the mainstream backing. He's got infrastructures in a lot of these states that these underfunded candidates haven't been able to do. But Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich they looked at and know that they are quite capable of raising that kind of money and of putting together a real threat.
They don't see either Ron Paul or Rick Santorum at this point as having really the machinery behind them to really use an Iowa victory to kind of propel them forward. They know that there will be someone that emerges as a sort of "I'm not Mitt Romney" and there's a wing of that in the Republican Party.
But if it's going to be Rick Santorum, that is better to them than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry who have shown an ability to raise money and to be able to move forward. I mean, there's -- there's -- you know, everyone can move forward going out of Iowa, but when you get to a state like Florida, which is also at the end of this month, you need money.
You got to put ads up on the air, and at the moment, the person with the personnel and the money to really play beyond these smaller states is Mitt Romney. He doesn't -- they don't see at this point, that either Ron Paul or Rick Santorum can match him where they know that there's a capability there with Rick Perry or with Newt Gingrich to really challenge him.
Should they do well here? So, that's why if they're in the top three somewhere with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, they'd love to be first or that second or third -- first would be best, but they could live with that and they think they could still build some momentum off that.
PHILLIPS: Got you. Candy Crowley, yes, thanks so much. You know, our Candy, she's seen a lot of caucuses. So is Christine Romans, she doesn't just do money, she's from Iowa. And you've watched all these crazy people come into your state year after year.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: They descend every four years and they spend an awful lot of money and they're kind of, like, gone the next day.
PHILLIPS: What's different about this one though? You were telling me that there is something that is different.
ROMANS: Yes. It's different this time because I feel as though so many Iowans are still searching. I think the polls show that. You know, when I go to Iowa, and I was there. I mean, I'm not there doing scientific polling. I'm there talking to people and finding out what is going on.
PHILLIPS: Talking to grandma on her phone.
ROMANS: Are you going to develop your land? Farm prices now at record high of $6,000 an acre. I mean, it's unbelievable what's happened to farm guys there.
But people are still kind of casting about looking and one of the reasons I think is they are not driven number one by the jobless situation. The unemployment rate in Iowa is 5.7 percent. I think it's the sixth lowest unemployment rate in the country.
Home prices are pretty stable. There are people who are underwater and look, it's not great and home prices aren't rising, but they didn't have the blow-up you saw in other parts of the country like in part of California and Nevada, down in the sunbelt.
You've also got as I said the booming agriculture sector. Anything that's tied to a farm is making money right now. So they're not worried number one about jobs.
They're worried about the feeling of the economy not going in the right direction, the lack of opportunity for their kids and grandkids and the student loan debt.
They're worried about conservative values. The Republicans are worried about conservative values, of course, but in general, they're still looking. They're still looking.
PHILLIPS: So still looking, but you also said every house that you drove by with a Ron Paul sign.
ROMANS: Well, usually by now so last week, the week before, even a month ago, people would have the yard signs out for the caucuses. This time I felt I only saw Ron Paul signs. Ron Paul people are the die-hards, right? And everyone else was still really looking around and deciding pretty late who they were going to go for in this thing.
PHILLIPS: It goes to show how many people are undecided.
ROMANS: Undecided. They're really driven, and it's not the same thing that you and I are driven about, which is the job sector. The manufacturing in the state, don't get me wrong --
PHILLIPS: Not too happy.
ROMANS: I mean, there are people who have lost their jobs in manufacturing but, you know, they're making a lot of money in agriculture, looking at land values and there's a boom.
But there's a practical concern about the direction of the country, the taxes in the country, the safety net in this country, it's all the things they're talking about usually you see more cohesion by now.
PHILLIPS: Our native, we'll continue to check in with you as it all goes down.
ROMANS: Good to see you, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Good to see you too, Christine.
And tonight, the country's first real votes, the candidates' first true test taking place in the Iowa caucuses, watch it all happen all sides special live coverage "America's Choice 2012" on CNN 7:00 Eastern. Young voters could decide which GOP candidate wins tonight's Iowa caucus. So what is on their minds? A university drafted a poll for students by students. One of the organizers joins me live next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Well, with the caucuses getting under way tonight, there is a group of voters who say don't count us out, and it's students and younger voters and here's why.
In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the GOP Iowa caucuses thanks to young voters and President Obama won Iowa's younger voters that year too. Now according to polls, it looks like Texas Congressman Ron Paul is in the best position to win over young voters and here's one of the younger generational voters who should know.
He actually organized the first straw poll at Drake University, Sam Pritchard, a student senator at Drake University. Thanks so much for joining us. All right, so Ron Paul actually won the straw poll, why?
SAM PRITCHARD, STUDENT SENATOR, DRAKE UNIVERSITY: That's correct. He came in with 35 percent of the vote and we surveyed over 1,200 students. There are a number of reasons why he came in first.
He's got a great grassroots campaign organization, and his supporters are very die hard and they really got the vote out amongst students. But I think his libertarian stances and his outsider image are both reasons that students really enjoy him.
PHILLIPS: Now, with only 35 percent of the vote, though, there's still 65 percent who didn't support Ron Paul. Where did those votes go?
PRITCHARD: Right. We had 25 percent that went for Mitt Romney, which considering how well Ron Paul does in the straw poll, that's a pretty good chunk of people that supported Romney, and then we had Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman coming in there, too, but they were a more distant third and fourth.
PHILLIPS: Now you openly endorse Mitt Romney. Why?
PRITCHARD: Well, he's a turnaround artist and I'm somebody who is very interested in the economy and so to see somebody who their entire career has turned around failed businesses, failed Olympics, that's something I'd like to see him do with the United States economy.
PHILLIPS: So, which candidate do you think, Sam, has taken young voters the most seriously? I mean, obviously Ron Paul is the most popular, I guess, for his rebel ways among younger voters. But which candidate do you think really has taken the time to go for that group of voters?
PRITCHARD: Well, I think it's really hard to say anyone other than Ron Paul because he has done such a great job of meeting personally with students. I know his young Americans for liberty organization whenever they open up a new chapter.
He oftentimes will visit that college or university. I think Newt Gingrich has done a good job of reaching out to young voters. But I don't know if we're really seeing the returns from that quite yet.
PHILLIPS: So, let me ask you this before I let you go, overall -- and I'm not just talking about, you know, the young voters that you hang out, your pals, because obviously you're well read in and you know about the candidates and the issues and all of that.
But overall, do you think that students this time around really understand the candidates and what they represent, or do a lot of them just kind of go with their crowd?
PRITCHARD: That's an interesting question. I think a lot of the students I know are out there trying to meet as many candidates as they can and all across the state they're very, very accessible.
But I still think you will have a lot of young voters who are either apathetic or uninformed, but those people aren't going to be out at the caucus tonight. So we'll see how results come out.
PHILLIPS: All right. Sam, thanks so much. Great talking to you.
PRITCHARD: Thanks you very much.
PHILLIPS: You'll segue right into a live event now. I wonder if there are any young voters in the crowd there. Rick Perry has just stepped up to the mic, and he is -- sorry about that. The camera is not really in a great position, but it looks like once the crowd sits down, there we go.
Let's listen in for a bit as he goes for the votes in West Des Moines, Iowa.
(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
RICK PERRY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- luckiest man in the world to have this woman by my side for 45-plus years, 16 of which we were just dating. And she's a hard sell, folks. So I tell -- if it's 16 years to talk her in to marrying me, then however much we need to do to talk Americans into our vision, that's what we're going to do, because that's what this is all about.
To understand how powerful this country can become again. And Anita shared with you one of the reasons as we sat down and made that decision to get in this race are standing right over there. Our son, Griffin, his wife Meredith, and the always lovely Sidney.
I want to say thank you for being here, too, congressman from South Carolina. He's in the room. Sam Graves is probably over there somewhere. And -- but just some fabulous people. I know Anita said thank you to so many of you for being here.
General, I want to talk about you specifically just a moment. Being the governor of the state, being the chief executive officer, to have a general counsel, if you will, an attorney who is willing to go fight for you.
When we had that lawsuit filed against the state of Texas about the 10 commandants whether or not they could stay on our capitol grounds or not, this man was magnificent. Went to the United States Supreme Court, fought for, laid out an argument, and won that argument.
So that our values as a country could be exhibited on that capitol ground, and I want to say thank you for that. You're a powerful man and a great friend. I love you, brother. Great on you.
We don't mind suing the federal government when they overstep their bounds. And we need a president of the United States that understands we're not going to walk into states and their sovereign rights and sue them. That's not what the Department of Justice ought to be about.
The Department of Justice ought not be about running operations like "Fast and Furious," which are sending guns into Mexico, which are ending up killing American citizens.
This election about stopping a president of the United States and his administration that is abusing the constitution of this country, that is putting America on a track to bankruptcy, and, folks, we are going to take America back! That's what this is about.
It is a powerful moment in America's history, and you are on the front lines. This is Concord. This is Omaha Beach. This is going up the hill realizing that the battle is worth winning. This is about sacrificing. And one of the reasons Anita and I wanted to come in here this morning is to say thank you.
Every man and woman in here is sacrificing your time, your treasure, your reputation, but you're doing it because you love this country. That is what gets us up every day. Gives us --
(END LIVE SPEECH)
PHILLIPS: Rick Perry in West Des Moines, Iowa, rallying the votes as caucus goers get ready to hit the caucuses tonight. We will be following all the live events taking place in Iowa and keeping you up to date on what the candidates are saying.
Presidential candidates have been spending big bucks ahead of today's caucuses. Who is spending the most? And does it make a difference in the polls? We're going to go to the New York Stock Exchange for the answers.
Also tonight, the country's first raw votes, candidates first true test taking place tonight, watch what happens from all the sides, "America's Choice 2012e" coverage tonight at 7:00 Eastern at the Iowa caucuses. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MALVEAUX: Our Alison Kosik has been spending all morning following the money all the way to Iowa. Presidential candidates have been spending big bucks as we know in the hawk eye state, so what do you think? What have you found out, Alison?
ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Do you know how much money? It's $5.5 million, Kyra, that's how much candidates and independent PACs spent on ads in Iowa through Friday.
And experts who are tracking the dollars say do you know what, it's not as much money as what spent four years ago because of the economy. The economy, yes, it's feeding into fund-raising and instead of what the candidates have been doing is really focusing in on the debate.
And do you know what, despite all the media attention, the race for the nomination has actually gotten off to a slow start. You wouldn't know it by all the media attention and the candidates haven't had much time to spend, but the one thing that's the same is most of the ads you're seeing out there are negative, big surprise -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: So, who is spending the most?
KOSIK: OK, so Texas Governor Rick Perry is spending the most. His campaign, Kyra, shells out almost $2 million on spots in Iowa and another half a million came from the independent "Super PAC" that was working on his behalf.
Coming in second is Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his "Super PAC" spent $1.6 million and rounding out the top three Ron Paul of Texas spent $900,000. Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann are following there.
You know what, you look at how these candidates spend and more spending doesn't always mean higher poll numbers. You look at Perry, he spent the most, but he's number four or five in the recent polls, -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Let's check the markets real quickly. You were expecting a jump at the open. Did it happen?
KOSIK: It did. Bulls came out in full force. The Dow is up 247 points. The rally continuing after we got some strong data on manufacturing and construction spending here in the U.S. Nice to see some green on the screen -- Kyra.
PHILIPS: Absolutely. Thank you, Alison.
Well, Newt Gingrich tells Mitt Romney to man up plus Ron Paul and his dreams about the White House. "Political Buzz" is next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: As you know, it's caucus day in Iowa and Newt Gingrich now holding a live event in Muscatine, Iowa. Let's go ahead and listen.
(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So if they did close the straits, we could step in as a world reserve and help sustain the world economy despite the chaos of the Middle East. So, in 1984 I was part of the process under Ronald Reagan.
I voted for some things some of you are old enough, you remember called gas-ahol. Ronald Reagan passed it. In was a national security measure. In 1998, big oil tried to kill it and Senator Chuck Grassley said that I was the one person who saved it -- saved ethanol from big oil, and I did it for a very practical reason.
This is not complicated. If I had to choose where a billion dollar goes and my choice is Saudi Arabia or South Dakota, I pick South Dakota. If my choice is Iran or Iowa, I pick Iowa.
I want us to become so energy independent that no American president ever again bows to a Saudi king. Now, you and I know that biofuels aren't the total answer, but they're a piece of it, soy, diesel, ethanol, cellulosic, good steps.
In addition, I'm for American oil and gas. I'm for American coal. I'm for American nuclear. I'm for American (inaudible). It's a big deal that Iowa was the second greatest producer of electricity from wind in the world. Only Denmark produces more.
But look at Obama. Obama is against American oil and gas. Goes to Brazil, congratulates the Brazilians on drilling offshore. Tells them how glad he is that we can guarantee $2 billion of equipment purchases largely by a company owned by George Soros and then he says the most extraordinary thing. He says to Brazilians, I would like America to be your best customer.
Now, I thought he had it exactly backwards. We don't send American presidents overseas to be foreign purchasing agents. We send American presidents overseas to be salesmen for American products and American goods and services so we have the jobs here. Then the idea that you can borrow money from the Chinese to buy Brazilian oil has got to be the worst economic model I've ever seen.
Look at the Xcel Pipeline. You know I tell people it's one thing if an administration can't play chess. It's another thing if they can't play checkers. But if they can't play tic-tac-toe.
And think about it. Here's -- here's Obama. He doesn't want to make the environmental extremists in San Francisco mad and he doesn't want to make the construction unions mad.
So he wants to not make a decision about the keystone pipeline. And the Keystone Pipeline will bring oil from Canada, we know how to build pipelines. We'll bring oil from Canada down to Houston which is the world's largest petrochemical complex. Americans will process the oil. It will then go by ship which creates jobs in the Port of Houston and largely to India and China.
So the President thought, well, I'll get by all this. I'll decide in 2013. I think it literally didn't occur to them that Prime Minister Harper of Canada had alternatives. So Harper announced the other day he's talking to the Chinese because the Chinese are offering to pay for a pipeline that goes straight west from central Canada to Vancouver. So we lose 20,000 American jobs, in construction. We lose 30 years of processing the oil. And the Chinese -
(END LIVE SPEECH)
PHILLIPS: Newt Gingrich live in Muscatine, Iowa. A number of the candidates holding live events today. We're trying to track them all for you and dip in so you get a little bit of a taste. As you know, the Iowa caucuses happen tonight and we have live coverage starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
All right, "Political Buzz", your rapid fire look at the best political topics of the day. Three questions, 30 seconds on the clock. And playing today, Democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman; founder and editor of Citizen Jane Politics, Patricia Murphy; and CNN contributor Will Cain.
First question guys, Newt Gingrich tells Mitt Romney to man up about negative campaigning. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRICH: If he'd be willing just be man enough to get up and say, you know, this is my negative campaign and I admit it, I'd be a lot happier. What I find really frustrating, and frankly irritating as a man who wants to run for president of the United States who can't be honest with the American people.
If he can't level with the American people about these ads, why should be expect him to level about anything if he's president?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So can Gingrich convince voters that Romney's dishonest, Robert?
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, Kyra, you know when Newt Gingrich said he was going to run a positive campaign as an experiment it really was a novelty act. Because when it comes to cutting, vicious and personal attacks, he's the political answer to Wes Craven.
And you can do your -- you can all Google his name. He's the author of the Freddy Kruger and "Scream" movies. Bottom line is you have to have -- Newt Gingrich doesn't have the character or the credibility or the positive approval ratings to be able to convince anyone of anything.
So no, he can't convince -- he can't convince anyone that Mitt Romney is dishonest. PHILLIPS: I don't know why I knew that name because I hate scary movies, but I did. Will?
ZIMMERMAN: I tried to help.
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think he convince -- can convince people that Romney is dishonest and I think he should probably stop trying. You know Soledad O'Brien on her new show "STARTING POINT" this morning interviewed an Iowan who said that it -- that it came off like he's just bellyaching over and over and the people understand this is how advertising works.
In fact I think we've stretched the definition of negative too far, Kyra. I think for a lot of conservatives Newt Gingrich's rise has been a mystery because he's been on both sides of so many important issues. I think a lot of these ads have been informative when Ron Paul has accused Newt Gingrich of serial hypocrisy that's not negative, that's informative.
PHILLIPS: Patricia?
PATRICIA MURPHY, FOUNDER/EDITOR, CITIZEN JANE POLITICS: Yes it doesn't even really matter if Newt Gingrich can convince anybody of anything related to Mitt Romney because this is all about Newt Gingrich. When go negative on an opponent you're going to drive up your own negative. So when we see Newt Gingrich saying these things about Mitt Romney, it comes off sort as a bellyaching as whining.
There's a difference between fighting back and just whining about your campaign. And Newt Gingrich -- for somebody who really perfected the art of negative campaigning or sort of being a political warfare, it's just a very strange place for him to go. I think he needs to go back and be positive. That's what people liked about him in the first place a couple months ago.
PHILLIPS: All right, Rick Santorum, was on "Good Morning America" this morning talking about his late gains in Iowa. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've done this on I would say we've done this on a shoestring but that would be insulting shoestrings. We've -- we've really done -- we've done it the old fashion way and our money is coming in better than it's ever come in and when we do well tonight, we suspect we'll have the resources to be able not just to compete in New Hampshire but to compete all the way through.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So what do you guys think? Does Santorum have the staff, you know, to capitalize on this Iowa surge? Will?
CAIN: I don't think so. Let's just say take a couple of facts. I think he first of all would have to win Iowa. And then we'd have to understand the fact that no Republican nominee has won both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary in the modern era. One that's been contested, not an incumbent President involved in other words.
So he would be setting historical precedent there to go into New Hampshire and do well. And on top of that as perfectly tailored as his campaign is for Iowa it's perfectly imperfect for New Hampshire, one of the least religious Republican electorates in the country.
So I don't think he can capitalize New Hampshire that will put it all on South Carolina and I'm -- count -- count me as skeptical.
PHILLIPS: Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, I think Will makes a very good point, because the issue that Senator Santorum is facing is not just the issue of expanding staff and raising the capital and structure. It's also whether he shows the political agility or the political growth potential to pivot from a social conservative message to an economic message, especially in a year where the economy is the dominant issue.
And I really am very dubious about whether he has demonstrated any of that ability. In many ways he's a victim of his own extremely radical and vicious statements and his extreme statements. So in short I think when he's toasting his great numbers in Iowa tonight, I think the Romney campaign will be toasting Santorum's success as well.
PHILLIPS: Patricia?
MURPHY: Yes, Santorum doesn't have the money right now. He doesn't have the staff right now but he does have the momentum and we know in politics that money follows momentum, and if he wins here or comes in second, he becomes the anti-Romney. He becomes the alternative that the rest of the Republican Party is looking for, so he can get a lot of money if he gets a lot of momentum coming out here.
In Iowa now the difference between his crowds from a week ago and yesterday are unbelievable. He's getting people's attention. He may not be a perfect candidate, but he can get a lot of money if he can come out of here with a really strong win and then start to hire staff and lay the groundwork to go a little bit further.
PHILLIPS: All right, guys your "Buzzer Beater"; 20 seconds on this.
Ron Paul on "Nightline" talking about his White House dreams. Here's what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you lay your head down on the pillow at night, do you see yourself in the Oval Office?
RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Not really. But I think it's a possibility. Sometimes I kid about it. I said that's the risk I take. (END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Ok. So was he too candid or refreshingly honest? Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, at least his dreams are less delusional than his rhetoric and his dreams are certainly a lot more realistic than his public policy positions.
So yes, it was a candid moment, really prompted by a very good interview. However, the reality is, I'm hesitant to give him any credit for being too refreshingly candid because ultimately what he says is based in such ignorance that it disqualifies him from any serious consideration.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: You know you're kind of caught between two cliches here. So many people in whatever business or politics tell you, you have to fake it to make it and if you don't believe in yourself then who will. And you know Ron Paul is not really sending that message out with that interview.
But at the same time I do kind of like someone who just doesn't BS us all the time, and says you know what, yes, I'm probably not your most conventional or best bet as a candidate. I kind of like it.
PHILLIPS: Patricia?
MURPHY: Yes there's no such thing as too candid for Ron Paul. That's why people love him. And I think what he said is true. I don't think he really wants to be president. I interviewed him and he said I don't want power. I want influence. He doesn't want to run the country. He wants to change the country and change the Republican Party.
I think that's what it's all about here. I think Ron Paul, that is just a classic moment of candor and that's why his people are going to come out for him tonight.
PHILLIPS: Guys thanks so much.
ZIMMERMAN: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: Don't forget, tonight is the country's first real votes. The candidates' first true test taking place in the Iowa caucuses. Watch what happens from all sides. Special live "AMERICA'S CHOICE 2012" coverage tonight on CNN starting at 7:00 Eastern.
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PHILLIPS: More celebrities coming out and publicly endorsing candidates and this time it's one of TV's biggest families and it's thrown its support behind Republican presidential candidate, Rick Santorum. A.J. Hammer with all the details. All right. there might be 19 members of this family, but not all of them can vote. A.J. HAMMER, HLN HOST: No, no. But we're talking about a big family literally, we should point that out. Family patriarch, Jim Bob Duggar has actually been campaigning with Rick Santorum in Iowa. The Duggars say the pro-life Santorum has the family values and also the business perspective that they want in a candidate so they are asking Christians to get behind him.
Now some analysts say this celebrity endorsement is actually having an impact. The Duggars are very popular among Christian conservatives and those are the voters that Santorum apparently really needs to have in order to do well in Iowa.
The only problem with this endorsement for Santorum, Kyra, is that the Duggars don't actually live in Iowa, otherwise I'm thinking that the eight Duggars who are eligible to vote could probably hold their own caucus today.
PHILLIPS: Well, you mentioned, though, why he's in Iowa, and the fact that it's these Evangelicals that believe in his views and that's, you know, that's a huge part of the base there. I mean that's -- that could make or break.
HAMMER: Yes, it will be very interesting to see if he gets any movement today. If we can tie it back to the Duggars actually having had something to do with that. Again, very, very popular. A big TV show. Also a favorite in the magazines for people to pay attention to.
PHILLIPS: A.J., talking politics, that was something new here. We're going to have to venture in to a little more of that possibly next time.
If you want more information on everything breaking in the entertainment world, though, A.J. always got that. Every night, "SHOWBIZ TONIGHT", 11:00 eastern on HLN.
All right. One of the driving forces behind Iowa politics has a British accent. His story and his influence next.
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PHILLIPS: All right. Let's go back to Iowa, shall we, and continue our caucus conversation. This time it's got a British accent. Simon Conway is a Brit by birth, but his heart and his permanent address is now in Iowa. He's a conservative radio host at the powerful and popular news radio 1040 in Des Moines, and, hey, Ronald Reagan even worked there in the 1930s.
Now, Simon, I have to admit in my head I'm hearing your name and I'm visualizing this sort of snarky Simon Cowell and taking down all the political candidates, but you seem to love most of those folks.
SIMON CONWAY, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Really? You're really thinking -- well, I am not him, but if you sing, I will comment.
PHILLIPS: Believe me, I won't sing, but I do know that you'll comment.
CONWAY: Well, we're good, then. We're good, then. A lot of these candidates are really good people and I think just about any one of them is probably capable of beating the President next November at the polls, but it's exciting times in Iowa. We'll going to have a great caucus day and frankly can't wait.
PHILLIPS: Now, you talk about the candidates that you love and you love talking to them except for Huntsman and Paul. You said you rejected them for different reasons.
CONWAY: That's correct.
PHILLIPS: What reasons are those?
Conway: Well, Jon Huntsman apparently only wants to be president of 49 states although there's still time for him to insult another couple of states if he wishes to. I'd rather have a president that wants to be president of all of our states as opposed to Huntsman.
As for Ron Paul while he's exceptionally gifts financially I think he's dangerous when it comes to foreign policy and our national defense.
PHILLIPS: So you say that you'd vote for Rick Perry if you were voting in the caucuses. Tell me why. The polls in your state show that you're pretty much a minority.
CONWAY: Well, first of all, let's not pay too much attention to the polls because the biggest number that people are not talking about too much is the 41 percent of undecideds. We're going to find out what that means tomorrow I guess, or late tonight.
As for Rick Perry, look, he's run the 13th largest economy on the face of the planet for the last 10 or 11 years and against a backdrop of worldwide recession and people losing jobs Texas has created over a million jobs. You can't ignore that.
PHILLIPS: Now, I've got a -- I've got a home -- I guess a home country question for you. When Michele Bachmann came out and talked about this country needing a Margaret Thatcher, you actually agreed with that comparison. Why?
CONWAY: There are a lot of things that are very similar to early Margaret Thatcher, there's no doubt about that at all. I mean, Margaret Thatcher was famously asked about whether or not she would do a u-turn on something, and she said the lady's not for turning.
I can tell you that Michele Bachmann is one of the most honest politicians I've ever met. When it comes to her policies, she's so focused, there's no chance whatsoever she would be driven off her course to repeal Obama care and cut the taxes and balance the budget. There's no way anybody can drive her off that course so she is not for turning.
She does have a spine made of titanium and she's very reminiscent of early Margaret Thatcher. She's also incredibly smart.
PHILLIPS: So, why aren't you supporting her?
CONWAY: Because you only get one vote and I'm not actually supporting anybody because as you rightly say, I don't have a vote. I'm not a registered Republican and I have no intention of changing that and my audience asked me repeatedly who I would vote for.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIPS: Hey, you've got a lot of influence now, you know, replaced Steve Dace who we had on yesterday. You have a very powerful base there that listens to you on the radio. You've got a lot of influence. Whoever you talk about and the individual that you say is someone that's won your heart, shall we say, people listen and those people vote.
CONWAY: Well, listen, I also say every single day on my radio show you need to vote your conscience, there are very good people in this race. I answered a question. I made it very clear it was not an endorsement. It is not an endorsement. You only get one vote. If you really want to know the difference for me, as to why I chose Rick Perry over Michele Bachmann, it was purely his executive experience, that was it.
But there are plenty of good candidates in this field. You know, we're often told that President Obama is the smartest guy in the room, I can tell you that Newt Gingrich actually is the smartest guy in the room. He's probably the smartest man I've ever met.
There are plenty of good candidates here. You only get one vote, if I was to exercise it, mine would go to Rick Perry. But it's not an endorsement. I tell my audience every day they are way smart enough to figure it out for themselves and they'll do just that tonight.
PHILLIPS: Simon Conway and it's on 1040 there in Des Moines, WHO? Simon thanks.
PHILLIPS: Well, the Iowa caucuses, voters choose the candidate that they like best, of course, but the Republican Party is trying to answer a bigger question. Who can defeat President Obama in November? CNN political analyst Roland Martin takes a closer look ahead straight ahead..
PHILLIPS: All right. Just in to CNN a white powder scare at the Palm Beach County state attorney's office. We're told that an envelope with the white powder was opened in the mailroom. Apparently three people there complained of headaches. Had to go through decontamination.
A firefighter who was on the scene actually the first to respond has now been transported with cardiac problems. At this time no word on who that envelope was addressed to or where it came from. But we are working the story. We thank our affiliate WPBF for these pictures coming in to CNN Center. All right. Hours before Iowa heads to its caucuses, Mitt Romney is focusing his attacks on President Obama. Listen to what he told -- actually, he did it today during his live event. And he also did it last night when he was in Marion. Take a listen --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I watch a president who's become the great divider, the great complainer, the great excuse giver, the great blamer. I want to have an America that comes together. I'm an optimist.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: All right. CNN political analyst Roland Martin working very heavy on this tight match here.--
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Always focused, focused.
PHILLIPS: Romney, is he the best prepared to take on President Obama in November?
MARTIN: Not necessarily. Frankly you can make that case for any candidate. Newt Gingrich probably says he's the best. And Rick Perry probably says he's the best, because they have produced a number of jobs, my home state.
Of course, Michele Bachmann told Soledad O'Brien that this morning that she's the best. At the end of the day, you think about 2008, Obama got, 33 percent of the goat. Senator McCain got 47 percent are still in many I was a split state when it comes to voting.
PHILLIPS: Well, Obama is not ignoring these attacks.
MARTIN: Of course, not.
PHILLIPS: He's going to hold a videoconference today, I understand.
MARTIN: Because also Democrats are voting in Iowa.
PHILLIPS: Right.
MARTIN: He's on the ballot, so they actually have to still go through the Democratic process. So.
PHILLIPS: Well tell me how this is going to work and what kind of influence do you think this going to have. Is this the right way to do it.
MARTIN: Well, absolutely. Look, you have to start the campaign now. You simply can't wait to allow the republicans to somehow, you know, lay out who you are. And so you must paint the picture in terms of Mitt Romney and those candidates so you'll see the Obama campaign targeting him because they think he's going to be the nominee. On the Democratic side they also have to build the enthusiasm as you talked about previously. Look, he won Iowa in 2008. He needs those electoral college votes come November.
PHILLIPS: All right. I'm told we have a hard out in two minutes. And that's tough with you and me, my friend. Let's take the top four contenders, Mitt, Newt, Paul, Santorum. Of those four --
MARTIN: Not necessarily. I mean, we don't know what's going to happen tonight.
PHILLIPS: Right now. I'm just saying right now.
MARTIN: According to polls.
PHILLIPS: According to polls right now, let's take those top four. Who do you want to see go head to head with Obama,
MARTIN: The Obama campaign probably say give us congressman Ron Paul but I think it will be Mitt Romney. Traditionally the Republicans choose the guy who lost last time. He lost in 2008 to McCain. McCain lost to Bush in 2000. Reagan lost to fourth in 76s, he was the guy in 1980 and so typically that's how it happens. But I do want to remind folks watching one thing --
PHILLIPS: We have 60 seconds. The numbers, the numbers.
MARTIN: All this talk about Iowa. All of this media attention, 25 delegates are up for tonight. What do you need to win the nomination? 2,286. That's why I believe no candidate should drop out. I'm tired of all this attention put on Iowa.
JoNAH Goldberg with the "National Review", I don't agree with him on anything. He's right in the newspaper today, and look you shouldn't put this much attention on Iowa. 25 delegates out of 2,286. Jon Huntsman, he's right. He could skip Iowa and still win the nomination.
PHILLIPS: Look at this, we made it with 20 seconds to spare. That was pretty good there.
MARTIN: Of course. Brother know how to work that, now (ph).
PHILLIPS: CNN NEWSROOM continues now with Suzanne Malveaux right after a quick break.
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