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Scrambling for Last-Minute Votes in Iowa; How the Caucuses Pick a Nominee; 'A True Hero' Helps End Arson Spree in Los Angeles; Where the GOP Candidates Really Stand on Abortion; Some Candidates Skipping New Hampshire, Going to S.C.; Interview with Mitt Romney's Children; Rick Santorum Speaks in Iowa

Aired January 03, 2012 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: Live from the Studio 7, I'm Suzanne Malveaux.

Want to get you up to speed for this Tuesday, January 3rd.

This is it, Iowa caucuses, maybe the most hyped night in politics. So what's a caucus? In its most basic form, a caucus is a meeting. It's a chance to change minds.

Tonight, concerned Republicans across Iowa are going to pull on their winter coats, hop in their cars, spend the evening arguing over who they think should be the next leader of our country. It is more than a popularity contest. It is democracy and it is about to get loud.

We're going to take you live to Iowa in the final hours before the caucuses kick off.

Well, the race is still up in the air and the campaigning is going down to the wire in Iowa. At this hour, three of the candidates are taking part in a Rock the Caucus rally, targeting younger voters.

I want you to listen in here. I think we've got Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum. All of them looking for the last-minute vote. Let's listen in.

(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

REP. MICHELE BACHMANN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- to do business if you're a job creator because of our tax code. I'm a tax lawyer. I want to abolish the tax code and do away with it and put it in its place a pro-growth code so that you can wildly succeed with your future and with your plan.

I want a future for you. I want a hope for you. And we can do that if we open up the opportunities in the tax code, change our climate for doing business, and grow the economy. That's my goal for you.

And what I want to do, too, is bring down the price of a gallon of gas. Gasoline was $1.79 a gallon the day that Barack Obama became president. We can get it back to that again, because the United States is the number one energy resource-rich nation in the world. And I want to open that up for you.

I'm so grateful you are here. This is your chance to succeed and have your say. Go out tonight. Rock the vote. Take your country back. It's your opportunity.

I believe in you. God bless you, you guys. Go out and vote tonight.

Thank you, everybody. Thanks for letting me be here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good luck today.

(END LIVE SPEECH)

MALVEAUX: All right. We are going to -- we just listened to Michele Bachmann, and we're going to hear from Ron Paul and Santorum as well in that rally, Rock the Caucus.

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry also hit the campaign trail early. At their stops today, all three went after President Obama.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He was going to get everyone back to work. He was going to repair the nation and repair the world. Extraordinary promises, but there's a huge gap between the promise and the delivery.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: At the election level, I think I'm the only person who can take on Obama's billion-dollar campaign and defeat him head to head in the debates in a decisive way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. RICK PERRY (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This election is about stopping a president of the United States and his administration that is abusing the Constitution of this country, that is putting America on a track to bankruptcy. And folks, we are going to take America back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: While the other candidates are scrambling for votes in Iowa, Jon Huntsman started his day campaigning in New Hampshire. Now, New Hampshire votes a week from today, and Huntsman decided to skip Iowa, focus his efforts on New Hampshire. At a school just the last hour he talked about his decision to run for office.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JON HUNTSMAN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I got the same lecture in life when I was growing up from my dad. If you want to change the world, if you want to make it happen, you have to go into business. That's where you need to make change.

But not everybody's cut out for that. You're always going to need a fallback position. You can always go into politics.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Huntsman's poll numbers in New Hampshire have edged up recently, but he still hasn't broken into the top tier yet.

Well, fresh from his holiday vacation in Hawaii, President Obama is going to be speaking in Iowa tonight, kind of sort of, after a day of meetings in D.C. He plans to speak to his supporters in Iowa this evening as Republican caucus votes come in.

Now, how is he going to do it? A campaign official says that the president is going to use a new video technology -- it's kind of like Skype -- to chat with Democrats about his own campaign.

We are less than eight hours away from the start of the Iowa caucuses, and the candidates, they are scrambling, you can imagine, to lock up those last-minute votes. Three of them are going after the youth vote. It is a Rock the Caucus rally. It is in West Des Moines.

Our Dana Bash is there rocking it as well.

Dana, great to see you. This is a very exciting day.

Tell us a little bit about who you've seen there and why this is so important to them.

DANA BASH, CNN SR. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This is a really interesting event, because as you know -- you've been out here covering these caucuses, Suzanne -- caucus-goers tend to be older, very much older, and this is generally not the kind of demographic that gets out to the caucuses. So the fact that you have here at this rally where I am 800 students, juniors and seniors, many of whom are already 18, some of whom won't be 18 until Election Day, are learning for the first time about the caucuses.

And I have somebody with me who is kind of a classic example of the kind of person, the kind of voter that these candidates are going for. I have with me Laney Abrahamson.

How are you?

LANEY ABRAHAMSON, UNDECIDED VOTER: Good. How are you?

BASH: Now, you have never voted in a caucus before, right?

ABRAHAMSON: I have not.

BASH: Who are you expecting tonight? And I guess more importantly, at this point, who are you going to vote for? ABRAHAMSON: I'm really undecided at this point. I'm expecting a lot of, like, different opinions and a lot of excitement and a lot of intense decision-making after tonight, since this is my first time ever being to a caucus.

BASH: So, you're undecided. What exactly are you looking for? What do you want to hear from the candidates here and tonight from the representatives that will help you make your mind up?

ABRAHAMSON: I'd like to hear a lot about their economic policies and things they can do for colleges and making that affordable, and job opportunities to improve the economy both here and tonight at the Iowa caucus.

BASH: Are you leaning one way or the other?

ABRAHAMSON: I'm really undecided at this point, but I think tonight will really make things happen.

BASH: How have you gotten most of your information about these candidates?

ABRAHAMSON: A lot of the commercials. And then the newspapers and the Internet and just rumor.

BASH: Rumor?

ABRAHAMSON: Yes, with a lot of people talking about different people's policies and what they like about people and what they don't like about people.

BASH: Why do you think it's so important for people like you? You're 17 right now, but you'll be 18 on Election Day. Why do you think it's important do you feel to get out in public (ph)?

ABRAHAMSON: I think because we need to agree with what's going on for youth later in life, and we are the future and we are going to have the jobs, and we are going to be making the ideas, and that's why we need to be able to get our voices heard.

BASH: And one last thing, Suzanne. I want to just show this to you and to our viewers as well.

If you can hold this up, this is what these students are getting here today. It's a pledge to vote, first of all, that is done by Rock the Vote. And secondly, most important, a voter registration form. Every one of these students that are coming here today -- and by the way, it's not just this event, it's 25 others around the state of Iowa -- are getting this registration form.

And I assume that's what you're going to fill out to take tonight.

Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

ABRAHAMSON: Thank you.

BASH: And good luck. You're introducing Rick Santorum?

ABRAHAMSON: Yes, I am. Thank you.

BASH: All right. We'll see if he changes your mind. I'll talk to you afterwards.

ABRAHAMSON: Thanks.

BASH: Thanks so much.

And Suzanne, that's a great example of the kind of thing that we're hearing and seeing here. And again, very interesting that this is the kind of demographic that these candidates, some of them, at least, on their last day, the day, caucus day, are trying to get, because young voters are not exactly those who tend to go out to the caucuses.

MALVEAUX: Dana, I think only in Iowa is it, like, a rumor that there's going to be politicians everywhere, right, fighting for your vote? I mean, it's just kind of amazing when you think about all the events that are taking place.

BASH: Yes.

MALVEAUX: What is the weather like there, Dana? You and I spent a lot of time out there. It was 20 degrees below zero when those folks had to come out.

Is it any warmer this go-around?

BASH: It is. It is warmer. It's not warm, but it's much warmer than it was when you and I were here standing on sheets of ice trying not slip and fall when we were talking on television. And it's -- the skies are blue, and so, in general, weather should not be a factor for caucus-goers at all.

MALVEAUX: I like that, Dana. It's warmer, but not warm. That pretty much summarizes it.

All right, Dana. Thanks so much. Have a great evening.

BASH: Thanks, Suzanne.

MALVEAUX: We've heard from the candidates, the analysts, the pundits. Now we want to hear from you. Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses and why?

People from Iowa, they're weighing in on actually who they like.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: It's one of the most fascinating and confusing, admittedly, nights in American politics. It is the Iowa caucuses. We call it a meeting of the minds and an indicator of who's actually running hot, who's not in the race for the White House.

So, how does it all work? Tom Foreman has the breakdown. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When the Democrats do it, there is debate, horse trading, a real raucous caucus. But the Republican caucuses all around the state are much more low key.

Step one, show up. Any voter can take part as long as he or she is already a registered Republican or willing to become one at the door.

Step two, listen up. After the Pledge of Allegiance, caucus-goers hear speeches from people representing the candidates. They can be from in state or out, big names or small town folks. They make a quick pitch for their pick.

Step three, mark it up. Pieces of paper are passed out. Attendees write down a candidate's name and the ballots are collected. It is more or less a secret vote depending on the formality of that caucus site.

And step four, count them up. The votes are added and a winner is declared.

(on camera): That's about it. Delegates to the national convention will be chosen later, and they're not bound to the results of the caucus, so it's really more like a high-powered poll. And yet, many political analysts say it really does matter.

(voice-over): Because candidates who finish at or near the top are often given credit for having stronger organizations, more solid core support, and better chances of winning in other states down the line.

Tom Foreman, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: So, we talked about the caucuses, how they work. We want to focus on the candidates and how they're doing.

Joining us to take a look at how the race is shaping up, senior political analyst David Gergen.

Good to see you in person, David.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you here in Atlanta.

MALVEAUX: Yes, nice to have you here.

GERGEN: Perfect. Thank you.

MALVEAUX: Watching this race now, who looks like they're at the head of the pack?

GERGEN: Well, I think most of the analysts give the advantage to Romney, but that is a danger for him, actually, because he's only spent about three weeks in Iowa. And Santorum, for example, has spent about maybe, oh, 14 weeks in Iowa over the last year.

So what it means is Romney almost has to win this. If he doesn't win it, then he won't live up to his expectations, and the expectations game is really what governs a lot of the interpretation afterwards.

MALVEAUX: And Rick Santorum has really dramatically risen, but this is just within weeks or so. Is this a flash in the pan?

GERGEN: Well, if you're going to flash, Suzanne, you've got to know when to do it.

MALVEAUX: Exactly.

GERGEN: He did just the right time. You know, this is the most remarkably fluid race we've ever had. We've had six different candidates since last summer who have, at one time or another, been at the top of the polls in Iowa. And the only person who hasn't been at the top of the polls is Rick Santorum, and yet he now presents the biggest threat because of his late surge.

Can he make it or not? I don't think anybody knows. I think this is hugely unpredictable. The surge -- he was within one point the last night of the polling of "The Des Moines Register," and the last-minute surge usually produces votes, but we'll have to wait and see. Forty- one percent of the people going into this election say they still haven't quite made up their minds yet.

MALVEAUX: Which I really don't understand.

GERGEN: You don't understand?

MALVEAUX: What more could they possibly want --

GERGEN: We didn't have enough debates, clearly.

MALVEAUX: I mean, they've seen the candidates multiple times. Yes, the debates.

What about Newt Gingrich? If he doesn't do well tonight, is that basically the end of the run for him?

GERGEN: No. He's going to go on, and he'll make his last stand in South Carolina. But I think what we do see is a very angry Newt Gingrich. He told me some weeks ago he was going to be heavily vetted by the media. What I don't think he anticipated was the onslaught of ads, negative ads, coming from other candidates, especially from Mitt Romney. And I think he's really (INAUDIBLE) at Romney.

MALVEAUX: And do you think that that's a lesson to the Republicans? Essentially, this is the Republican playbook here. If you have all these negative ads, obviously the Democrats are going to have to match them in the general election.

GERGEN: I think we're heading into a very mean general election. I think one of the things we have learned from Mitt Romney is he's very focused, he's very upbeat on the stump, but he plays a ruthless game. He will take you out if he has to, and he's done that very effectively. And by the way, Barack Obama plays the same game.

MALVEAUX: Oh, absolutely.

GERGEN: So, we may well have two very tough competitors come the fall.

MALVEAUX: And there's a lot of money. Obviously, the White House, the Obama campaign has a lot of money that they can work with here to tap into.

One of the things that we might see tonight which is really fascinating is that Romney might actually win in Iowa with less of the vote than he lost to Huckabee back in the last caucus.

GERGEN: That's right.

MALVEAUX: How does he manage to coalesce the other Republicans around his candidacy for the general election? Because they are only talking about, like, 25 percent who are actually potentially voting for him.

GERGEN: He got 25 percent last time. He could win this with 24 percent, you're absolutely right.

What I do think, if you get that small, even if you win, it encourages the other conservative to hang in there and see if they can find -- somebody can catch fire against him, because clearly there's an opening when you have 75 percent of the people voting for somebody else. But from Romney's point of view, the best thing that would happen is everybody decides to stay in, nobody decides to get out.

Michele Bachmann goes to South Carolina, Rick Perry goes to South Carolina, Gingrich goes down there, Santorum goes to New Hampshire, and Jon Huntsman is waiting in New Hampshire. From Romney's point of view, the best thing to do is divide and conquer. If you keep those things spread out, if there's no one single anti-Romney candidate, he wins.

MALVEAUX: All right. And we might see this go out for quite some time.

GERGEN: We might. I hope you'll be there everywhere along the way.

MALVEAUX: Oh, definitely. I will be out there.

GERGEN: OK, Suzanne. It's really good to see you. You look terrific here.

MALVEAUX: Thank you.

GERGEN: It's obviously agreeing with you.

MALVEAUX: Thank you. It's been a lot of fun.

GERGEN: Great.

MALVEAUX: All right. Good to see you. Well, remember Herman Cain, former Republican candidate, one-time front-runner? Well, he hasn't backed a candidate since dropping out of the race in December, but last night he told CNN's Piers Morgan he is planning to make what he calls an unconventional endorsement. I want you to listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HERMAN CAIN (R), FMR. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My endorsement is going to come later, and it's going to be an unconventional endorsement for the following reasons -- I was very fortunate to have a large base of supporters, and my number one mission isn't to help select the nominee, my number one mission is to defeat Barack Obama. And in order to do that, I want to leave my voice and myself in a position to keep my supporters and other supporters that we may pick up when we announce this national movement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: So Cain didn't really elaborate on what this national movement initiative actually involves.

Well, live "America's Choice 2012" coverage of the Iowa caucuses begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

While most have made up their minds, many voters in Iowa say they can still be persuaded to change their positions. So why are so many Iowans not firmly behind a candidate just hours before the voting begins? We'll find out.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

MALVEAUX: The L.A. arson spree, that appears to be over. It was a part-time sheriff's deputy who actually arrested the suspect. Twenty- four-year-old Harry Burkhart has been charged with one count of arson.

Now, the mayor says more charges probably are going to be filed against him as well. And the man who caught this guy, well, that's a whole other story.

Our Thelma Gutierrez, she's in Los Angeles with more on that part of the story, as well as the suspect.

Thelma, first of all, tell us about this deputy, this guy who actually caught him.

THELMA GUTIERREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Suzanne, the part-time deputy who is now being hailed as a hero is actually a full-time Beverly Hills real estate attorney. Thirty-year-old Shervin Lalezary, who was born in Tehran, earns $1 a year as a reserve deputy. He was on patrol Monday morning when he saw a suspect driving a van that matched the description of a man leaving the site of an arson fire.

He pulled the van over, and with the help of Los Angeles police, arrested the suspect.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RESERVE DEP. SHERVIN LALEZARY, LOS ANGELES COUNTY SHERIFF'S OFFICE: Thank you to the men and women of the L.A. County Sheriff's Department West Hollywood Station for coming into work every day, doing this full time, putting their lives on the line every day, full time. I really appreciate everything you guys do and I look forward to coming back for my next shift with you guys.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GUTIERREZ: Now, Suzanne, the suspect is a 24-year-old. His name is Harry Burkhart. He lives in Hollywood with his mother, and Los Angeles police say they believe that Burkhart is a foreign national from Germany. And though at this point he's only been charged with one count of arson, he's suspected of starting 52 fires, mainly in parked cars.

And, Suzanne, one law enforcement official told a local radio station that Burkhart was dropping small cubes, the small cubes used to start charcoal fires on the cars, and giving him just a few minutes to escape. And investigators also say that they're not ruling out that other people may be involved as well.

MALVEAUX: Thelma, do we have any sense of the motive, why he was doing these things? Do investigators have any ideas?

GUTIERREZ: Well, of course all of that is under investigation. He's being held right now without bail. But Burkhart may have been upset over his mother's immigration problems.

She faces deportation from the United States. And following his arrest, he told investigators, "I hate America." And that's according to several CNN affiliates -- Suzanne.

MALVEAUX: All right. Thelma, thank you.

Well, Afghan officials say that they are ready to send a tortured girl abroad for medical care. They let her doctors decide if she should be treated in India.

Fifteen-year-old Sahir Gol (ph) was rescued by police last week after being locked in the basement of her in-laws' house, tortured for several months. Now, authorities say her nails had been pulled out and she had been denied food. This, because she refused to be forced into prostitution. Now, the girl's in-laws have been arrested, but her 30-year-old husband is still on the run.

In Egypt, prosecutors today began presenting their case in the trial of deposed president Hosni Mubarak. The 83-year-old is said to be suffering from cancer and a heart ailment.

Well, he was wheeled into the courtroom on a gurney just as previous appearances. He's accused of ordering protesters killed during last year's uprising. Now, Amnesty International reports that about 840 people died. A lawyer involved in the trial says he expects a verdict before the January 25th anniversary of the start of the revolution.

We've got decision day for Iowa voters. A lot of them say they could be persuaded still to change their minds. We're going to ask a political insider what voters need to hear from the candidates.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: Here's a rundown of some of the stories we're working on.

Next, bracing for a cliffhanger, caucus day in Iowa. I'm going to talk to the political editor for "The Des Moines Register" about why so many voters are still now undecided.

Plus, staying focused on the issues that matter to you most. We're going to look exactly where the candidates stand on abortion.

We're also going to take you live to Des Moines for a little caucus flavor, find out what the mood is like right now just hours before the caucuses begin.

You've seen the polls. You've heard of the politicking. But, the madness of early voting season, it is kind of easy to lose sight of where the candidates really stand on the issues that matter to you most. Well, today, we're focusing on abortion rights. It's actually one of the few issues the Republican candidates are united on. All of them say they're anti-abortion. And all, except for Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney, have signed an anti-abortion pledge. Now, the pledge is a promise to appoint only anti-abortion officials and to block federal funding for abortion-related institutions.

Here's how the candidates stack up individually. Michele Bachmann opposes abortion in all cases and opposes embryonic stem cell research.

Ron Paul, a doctor who proudly claims to have delivered 4,000 babies, is strongly against abortion. On his campaign web site, he says, "I never performed an abortion. And I never once found an abortion necessary to save the life of a mother."

Before becoming the governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney actually supported abortion rights. He later changed his position, but he says the anti-abortion pledge was too broad for him to sign.

It's the governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman signed laws limiting abortion rights. But Huntsman says he refuses to sign any pledge on principle.

Rick Perry, also strongly anti-abortion, even in cases of incest. He recently said he would support abortion only when the mother's life is in jeopardy.

Same is true of Rick Santorum. He wrote the legislation that banned the late-term procedure opponents called partial-birth abortion back in 2003.

Newt Gingrich, strictly anti-abortion, and is in favor of ending financing for Planned Parenthood.

Stick around for the next hour of NEWSROOM. We'll take a hard look at how the candidates plan to deal with Iran.

And watch what happens tonight from all sides. Live, "America Choice 2012" coverage of the Iowa caucuses begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: Candidates have had their say, now the people of Iowa, they can have theirs. Polls suggest a lot of Iowans, however, could still be persuaded to change their minds heading into today's caucuses.

Joining us to talk about that is Carol Hunter. She's politics editor of the "Des Moines Register."

Good to see you, first of all. On your paper's web site today, you've describe this race as a cliffhanger, with the top candidates in a dead heat. Why? This drives me crazy covering the Iowa caucuses for so many years. Why are people so -- haven't decided quite yet, able to change their minds?

CAROL HUNTER, POLITICS EDITOR, DES MOINES REGISTER: I think the people of Iowa really do take this so seriously, and so they want to make sure they get this right. I think there's even an anticipated, highly anticipated sense this year, in particular, because Republicans are really united about a desire to defeat President Barack Obama in November. So they want to make sure that they are focusing in on the candidate that can do that, and also reflects their values.

MALVEAUX: Sure. And, Carol, the latest polls showing that up to 40 percent of Iowans perhaps could still be persuaded to go in a different direction in terms of who they vote for. What do you think they want to hear from the candidates? What are they waiting for? What do they need to hear before they make up their minds?

HUNTER: Well, all along, they have told us that they're very focused on the economy, just as Americans are across the rest of the country. But Iowans, too, many of them are evangelicals. They're waiting to hear -- to be absolutely convinced that that candidate will uphold their values on issues like abortion and gay marriage as well. They're very concerned about government debt. I think that's why Ron Paul's message has so resonated this year.

MALVEAUX: And, Carol, this is a very unique group of people that you're talking about. These are folks, they have got to brave the cold. They got to drive to these caucus meetings. They gather at 8:00. They got to listen to all the speeches, right, people making their case for the candidates. And then, finally, they vote at the end of the evening. I imagine they are pretty highly motivated. Who are these folks?

HUNTER: Well, they are the party activists. There are some candidates I think who have expanded the pool this time around. I think Ron Paul is drawing in some young people, perhaps some disaffected Independents and even Obama voters last time around. But it tends to be people who are kind of political junkies who would get in to something like this.

But that fact that you have to show up on a cold night at an exact place and exact time is one of the things that makes it so volatile. And also the fact that it is a neighborhood meeting. You're there with your peers. There's a lot of discussion. So peer pressure can come in to play and that can be what can kind of tips the edge.

MALVEAUX: Yes, it's a pretty bizarre process when you think about it, but it's a very democratic one. Carol, you and I have debated before about this, every four years, whether Iowa should have that much influence in shaping the presidential race. You're talking about a state that's not really representative of the rest of the country. It's overwhelmingly rural. It's white. What do we make of the role that Iowa plays? I mean, should it play such a major role in picking our next president?

HUNTER: I think one of the best things that Iowa has going for it is that it forces the candidates to partake retail politics. It forces people to go out and look voters in the eye, shake their hands, make their pitches at coffee shops and fire halls and church meetings and that sort of thing. If you went to a primary system, say, or started off with one of the bigger states, it would basically be a television ad war. I think this is a way for people up close to really vet the candidates. And Iowans take that process very seriously.

MALVEAUX: All right. Well, Carol Hunter, it's great to see you. Obviously -- it's a fun thing to cover. It's a very interesting thing to watch, how this all unfolds, and how this works. So obviously, we're going to be paying very close attention tonight, and we'll see how it all turns out tomorrow.

Carol, thanks again.

So, why are some Republican candidates skipping, actually skipping, Iowa and going on to New Hampshire, next primary state? Heading straight -- or rather skipping New Hampshire and going straight to South Carolina. We'll tell you in just a couple minutes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: Republican candidates are racing the clock right now, hoping to win the first contest on the presidential race calendar.

CNN political editor, Paul Steinhauser, in Des Moines, in the cold.

What's the mood, Paul? Are people feeling like it's getting close?

PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN DEPUTY POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes, down to the wire here. We just have about eight hours to go now until the big caucuses. You know, everything is so tight here, all these latest polls indicate that, well, yes, Mitt Romney's on top, but Ron Paul, the Congressman from Texas, just a couple points behind, and Rick Santorum, the former Senator from Pennsylvania, and even Gingrich and Perry -- other than Bachmann, who is in single digits -- this thing is up in the air. And I would defy anybody to tell me they know for sure who is going to come out on top here tonight in the caucuses.

MALVEAUX: OK. We're not taking any $10,000 bets on that, are we Paul? What are we expecting --

(LAUGHTER)

STEINHAUSER: We're not.

MALVEAUX: We'll pass on that. What about turnouts? Do we think folks will come out there? I know it's cold, but not as cold as in previous years. But it looks nice, yes?

STEINHAUSER: Yes. You know about cold, Suzanne. When you were here four years ago, this was bitter. It was a bitter winter.

(LAUGHTER)

No, it's not bad. It's in the mid-30s. By caucus time tonight, probably low 30s, right around freezing. They are used to it here. It's almost like spring. Look, I don't see any snow, do you? At least in the Des Moines area. A little bit across the state but not much.

So what does that weather mean? It means, well, maybe it could help candidates whose supporters are maybe not that enthusiastic, maybe like Mitt Romney. If there's five feet of snow on the ground here, Ron Paul supporters would still come out.

118,000 -- that's how many Republicans took part in the caucuses last time around. 118,000, nearly 119,000 four years ago. Let's look to see if that number goes up. And that may indicate enthusiasm by Republicans if they want to, of course, try to get President Barack Obama out of the White House next November -- Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: Let's talk about warmer weather. There are some candidates who are planning to skip New Hampshire, which is the home of the next primary, to campaign in warmer weather, South Carolina. Why that strategy?

STEINHAUSER: A couple reasons. First of all, you look at all the polls in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney, used to be governor of neighboring Massachusetts, he's the overwhelmingly frontrunner in New Hampshire.

Also the electorate there is very different than here in Iowa. Here in Iowa, social conservatives dominate as do Tea Party types. It's more Independents. Independents play a big factor in New Hampshire. And South Carolina, much closer to Iowa.

So, we know for sure Rick Perry, the Texas governor, he's heading straight to South Carolina. Michele Bachmann, if she marches on, we know she's going to South Carolina as well. We're also hearing that Rick Santorum -- he's going to go to New Hampshire first. But then, Suzanne, he is going to spend a day or two later this week in South Carolina. And the same thing for Mitt Romney. He's going down to South Carolina for about 24 hours later this week. But they all do go to New Hampshire this weekend. And, of course, they'll be there a week from today for the primary -- Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: And we know Republican caucus votes will come in tonight. The White House is not ignoring this. President Obama will be speaking to a few thousand supporters in Iowa through kind of an online video chat from Washington. Clearly, this is a very different picture than what we saw before. He doesn't have to go out there. He doesn't have to do the retail politicking that we saw four years ago but it does seem like they're engaged now.

STEINHAUSER: Well, they are definitely engaged. You're absolutely right. He's not going to face any serious challenge for the nomination but there will be caucuses and primaries, of course. But Iowa, a very important battleground state. President Obama did win it four years ago. He would like to hold on to it. That's why I think you'll see -- of course, what he's doing, tonight, this teleconference. You'll see and hear him a bunch of times I would assume in the spring, summer and fall -- Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: All right. Try to stay warm there, Paul. And we'll be watching. We'll be watching every move.

(LAUGHTER)

Thank you.

We want to bring in Dana, Dana Bash. She's in West Des Moines, where they're holding a Rock the Vote-style event.

And, Dana, I understand you have very important guests with you, yes?

BASH: Yes, we're doing this on the fly. We do have some important guests, interesting guests, in general, but especially because of where we are.

We have four out of the five sons of Mitt and Ann Romney.

Thank you very much for joining us.

MATT ROMNEY, SON OF MITT ROMNEY: Thank you, Dana.

BASH: I wanted to say at the beginning, we are waiting for one of his father's prime opponents, Rick Santorum, to take the stage. And when he does, I'll toss back to you.

But before he starts to speak -- let me start with the news of this morning, which I'm sure you all heard, which is that Newt Gingrich flat-out called your dad a liar. Do you guys have any response to that? JOSH ROMNEY, SON OF MITT ROMNEY: Newt Gingrich is a great guy. We're running against a lot of great candidates running for president all in their own way, but we're here to talk about my dad and talk about my dad and why we think he's the best candidate for the president of the United States.

BASH: Anyone else?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Josh said it pretty well.

BASH: I mean to hear, especially -- look, this is not easy on any family member because you didn't ask for this, because you're not the candidate. But as a son, to hear somebody call your dad a liar, it can't be fun.

MATT ROMNEY: You get thick skin throughout this whole process. And we know what our dad's all about. We love him. We know he's a man of integrity. He's a great example as a father for us, so it really doesn't -- we don't take it personally.

BASH: I'm going to ask you guys to stand by. You're being very kind to wait.

I'll toss it back to you, Suzanne, because Rick Santorum is speaking and I know we want to listen in.

MALVEAUX: All right, let's listen in to Rick Santorum.

(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)

RICK SANTORUM, (R), FORMER PENNSYLVANIA SENATOR & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm excited to be here with some friends and some family. My friend is Matt Schultz, who is the secretary of state for the state of Iowa. And Matt has been a good, dear friend, and a great adviser to me over the past few months not just few weeks. And, of course, my family. Karen and I, as Laney (ph) said, have been married for 21 years and we've been blessed to raise seven children. And six of the seven are here with you today. They've -- our littlest one, who is 3 1/2, is not with us here but we're excited to be with you. Of course, the head of the household and has been the rock that's been able to allow me to be at 380 town hall meetings in the state of Iowa over the past year is my wife, Karen. I want to introduce you to them and thank you for welcoming us here to Valley High School.

I know that this is a big moment. All of you are going to have an opportunity to be able to vote in the caucuses tonight. And obviously, I encourage you to do so. This is an important moment for our country. We're at a critical path. Every generation, every generation of leaders has an obligation to be able to pass on to the next generation something greater. I was very fortunate. We -- I was raised in a family that was an immigrant family. My father and my grandfather were immigrants to this country. My dad came when he was all of 7 years of age. And it was instilled in me the greatness of our country, the foundational freedoms.

My grandfather left -- in fact, he left my father and the rest of the family behind when in 1925 during Mussolini's reign in Italy, leading up to World War II. And he was not a fan of fascism and Mussolini. He came to this country because he wanted to live in a country that believed in him, that believed in free people, that believed in opportunity, that any person could rise in society if they worked hard, got a good education, and played by the rules.

That's what America always stood for, that bottom-up, entrepreneurial individual spirit based upon strong families that molded and instilled values that were important for you to be successful, like hard work and honesty and integrity. That is the real greatness of America.

I would make the argument that there's a lot of people in America today and, unfortunately, in the White House that don't believe that anymore, who don't believe that America is a great country, because we are great, because we have great people, who build great things from the bottom up, but that America could be better if we built things from the America could be better if we built things from the top down. That may be the way other countries have done it. In fact, it is.

But a lot of people who are in this country left those countries because, like my grandfather, they wanted a country that believed in him. He didn't get that kind of education. He was a coal miner. He ended up working in the coal mines until he was 72 years old. But he believed that if he could do his part, make the sacrifices that were necessary, that maybe some day his son would be able, and daughter would be able to go to college some day which, fortunately, they were able to do.

And now here his grandson is standing and running for president of the United States. That is a great country because we believe in free people and the ability to build something from the bottom up.

You have a very tough choice to make. There are a lot of great candidates who are going to be up, and many of them have spoken already. But you need to focus in on who was that candidate who has the vision for America, that's going to believe in the founding principles of our country and build this country. Well, like our founders did, in believing in those freedoms that I've described.

I've always worked and talked to young people for all throughout my congressional career. I was elected in the Senate as the youngest United States Senator, by far. I was 36 years old. I think the next youngest was 20 years older than I was. I was the second youngest when I was elected to the House. I took a special responsibility to go out and meet with young people. I met with every high school group that ever came to visit me in Washington, D.C. because I wanted to remind them of basic things

(BUZZER)

SANTORUM: OK, number two --

(LAUGHTER)

I'll move along. Number one -- and people would come and say they want their picture with me, would you sign this, and it was great. It was wonderful people were that respectful. But I always reminded young people that I work for you, not the other way around. And you have to hold your representatives accountable and your president accountable. You may like them. They may be nice people but you need to hold them accountable for what they do and the policies they are putting forward. That means you have to be involved as citizens. You've got to read those blogs and read the news wires and have an understanding of what's going on in this country.

Every decision that's going to be made here in the next few years, whether Obama-care is repealed or kept in place, whether taxes are going to grow, whether this deficit that is now crushing the economy and will crush your pocketbooks in the future will be dealt with so you won't have a lower standard of living, those are the issues. You need to hold the presidential candidates, members of Congress accountable, because it's your future.

I know you're worried about your education. You're worried about the job you're going to get. Those are short-term worries. The longer-term problems are the ones that will affect you more profoundly. Hold those candidates to the standard of solving the intractable problems of an exploding federal government, of an exploding debt that will crush your economic future. Make sure they stand up and deal with the systemic problems of entitlements and they deal with the systemic problems of a government that is doing more and more and giving you less and less freedom. That's what I would challenge you.

Take a look. There are different ways of solving these problems. Barack Obama has one way and I have another. Look at them and make sure they are real. Make sure that you can see how we can accomplish this vision of getting this economy going, not just in the short term stimulus, but for long term stable growth so you and your family can live free and prosper in a safe country.

Ladies and gentlemen, I thank you so much for your interest in being here today. I thank Rock the Vote for what they are doing and wish you much success in your first vote at the caucus. Thank you and God bless you.

(APPLAUSE)

(END LIVE SPEECH)

MALVEAUX: You're watching Rick Santorum, at Rock the Caucus at Valley High School in West Des Moines, Iowa. That is where numerous candidates will be speaking before young people, caucus voters and caucus goers throughout the day and the evening.

Coming up after a quick break, we're going to hear from Mitt Romney's sons, I believe. Dana Bash has four of the five sons with her, and we'll ask them a couple of questions after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: All right, Dana Bash in West Des Moines, Iowa, where they are holding a Rock the Vote-style event, Rock the Caucuses, I guess.

Dana, I believe you have Mitt Romney's sons, four of the five, back with you.

BASH: That's right.

MALVEAUX: That's great. I want to ask them a real quick question. If you can ask them --

BASH: Sure.

MALVEAUX: -- this go around, we've seen a lot more of them than the last time, obviously, to make their father more relatable to folks in Iowa. Tell us something we don't know about your dad.

BASH: That's a very good question.

Suzanne is asking about the fact you all seem to have a much more visible presence on the campaign trail to make your father more relatable. She wants each of you to tell us something we don't know about Mitt Romney.

JOSH ROMNEY: He's a prankster. He loves to pull pranks on the kids. We grew up scaring each other and playing pranks. Jut really fun, loves a good joke, loves a good laugh.

MATT ROMNEY: He's extremely cheap, believe it or not. Growing up, if I left the water on too long or left the fridge open too long, he would be barking at you, you've got to shut that off. So he's really frugal.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Has a very tender side. He talks about his parents things that are important to his faith or country he can get emotional.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tough to be last. They stole mine.

(LAUGHTER)

But he loves spending time with the grandkids, spending time with family and grandkids and relax.

BASH: Let me ask you all, I was here with you spending a lot of time with your dad and with the campaign four years ago. Obviously, he finished a disappointing second after spending $10 million here and having a really incredible organization. Why do you think it's different this time around?

JOSH ROMNEY: There's a lot of enthusiasm for him right now. A lot of people -- the events we've been going to the last few weeks, they've all been oversold, tons of people, a lot of excitement. We're still hoping for a great finish here, not expecting a win, but to have a great finish.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I also think the most important issue right now is the economy. And there's no question if you look at the candidates on the stage, my dad is best equipped to help fix the economy and his message is resonating with people. As they get to know him, he's rising in the polls. And his message of getting Barack Obama out of the White House and getting someone in that really has had a job, knows how to run the economy and fix things is resonating with people.

BASH: There's been a lot of talk about the ads that have been running constantly here on the air waves. Ads specifically done by friends of your dad, financiers of your dad with the super PAC that's supporting him that mostly have mostly attacked Newt Gingrich. There's been some controversy about the fact that he's supporting -- they're supporting him but not really coordinating. But they're pretty tough. What --