Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Newsroom
One Last Day In Iowa; Contenders Rock The Caucus; Romney's Sons React To Slams; L.A. Arson Suspect Arrested; Snow Causes Pile-ups And Strands Drivers; Iran Says Do Not Send U.S. Carrier To Gulf; Body Found On Queen's Estate; Interviews With Romney, Gingrich New Hampshire Campaign Heads; Interview With DNC Communications Director
Aired January 03, 2012 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RANDI KAYE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone, I'm Randi Kaye. It's 1:00, we've got a busy hour ahead, let's get straight to the news.
A long, rough ride is coming to a bumpy end in Iowa and a rougher, bumpier, much more expensive ride is beginning. The Iowa caucuses get under way seven hours from now and six of the main contenders for the GOP nomination are campaigning down to the wire. If you believe the final polling, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are running neck and neck and neck, while Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are racing to stay in the race. John Huntsman alone in having never risen of the bottom tier is passing on Iowa and doubling down in New Hampshire, whose first in the nation primary is just weekend away. For Gingrich, tonight's caucuses come several weeks after he peaked in the polls. But on CNN's new show "STARTING POINT" he said he is still in position to win.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There's 41 percent who are undecided, it's very possible to win. We've talked -- we've had 18,000 people in a telephone conference call yesterday afternoon. We reached 89,000 Iowans and telephone conference calls, we have one more yet today. And we have precinct leaders all over the state who believe that the caucus -- those are going to walk in, have a discussion and a substantial number of them are going to switch.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: 41% Newt Gingrich mentioned are voter s who say they could change their minds. Whatever happens in Iowa, Romney says he's going to face President Obama in November. By the way, the president is running in Iowa, too. He'll speak to the caucusing Democrats live via satellite this evening. At Mitt Romney's only campaign event of the day, he didn't sound like a candidate who was trying to court caucus goers.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to ask the American people to sacrifice. I'm going to say, look, folks, we can't go on spending and spending and spending our children and grandchildren's future, and so some programs you like and I like, we're going to have to stop. And we're going to have to hope the private sector and charity and others are able to fill in behind us, but we're not going to keep spending money we don't have. The national endowment for the arts, the national endowment for the anatomies, PBS, they all get money from government. They're going to have to stand on their own. Maybe Big Bird is going to have to have advertisers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: Speaking of "Sesame Street," three of Romney's rivals spent part of their day trying to inspire a few hundred high school students in west Des Moines. It's called "Rock the Caucus" and the stars were Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. My colleague, Dana Bash, is there. So Dana, what did those kids hear today and what did they make of it all?
DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: First of all, I should tell you before I answer the question, I'm not checking back into high school. This actually has quickly transformed back into a high school gym. But behind me, believe it or not, there were about 800 students who were here to listen, as you said, to three of the candidates running asking for their votes. What they heard, really for the most part, their standard stump speeches asking -- talking about -- in the case of my Michele Bachmann, of the fact that she believes that she is the most consistent conservative, in the case of Rick Santorum talking about the fact that he has been here for a very long time, spent a lot of time in Iowa, visited all 99 counties, and he believes he is the most consistent conservative.
Now, when it comes to Ron Paul, Randi, he, I think, perhaps is the most interesting when you're looking at the youth vote because he's the oldest candidate by far, he's 76 years old and he seems to be galvanizing young people more than any other of the candidates who are far younger than him. And the reason, in just talking to some of the people here -- the young people here, they said, for the most part, the reason is because they're turned off by politics, but they believe that Ron Paul has been the most consistent, he hasn't flip- flopped, in many of their views, like other candidates have -- Randi.
KAYE: Well, speaking of young people, I know that some of Romney's sons were there, you had a chance to speak with them. I guess they're getting a bit of a lesson in campaign hard ball.
BASH: Oh, they certainly are. I was out here covering their father four years ago and certainly saw them a lot behind the scenes, but now they are very much front and center. As you said, three spoke here. I actually had the chance to speak with four of his five sons live on CNN. And one of the things I wanted to ask him is about what Newt Gingrich said on CBS news this morning, actually flat out called their father a liar. Listen to what Josh Romney said to that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSH ROMNEY: Newt's a great guy. We're running against a lot of great candidates that are running for president all their own way. And -- but we're here to focus on my dad and talk about my dad and why he -- why we think he's the best candidate for the presidency of the United States.
BASH: Anyone else?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Josh said it pretty well.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: So, you know, if you're called a liar, who better to have on a campaign trail than one of your sons saying that you're a man of integrity. So, you know, I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the campaign said that it was fine for me to talk to all four of them on a day where Newt Gingrich called their father a liar. But you know, look, you have to have thick skin when -- and they said that to me, when you're -- when you're a family member, when you didn't choose this, and you're father or your mother is running for president.
KAYE: Yes.
BASH: But it certainly is that you could feel the excitement here, not only in this gym but also around the state. Because, look, there's nothing like it -- there's nothing like the Iowa caucuses, the kickoff event of the political season.
KAYE: Well Dana, we're glad you're there and rest of the best political team on television. Dana Bash in Iowa for us. Thank you.
And CNN is the place that you want to be tonight for the Iowa caucuses, we'll have special live coverage like no other network on television. Wolf Blitzer and Anderson Cooper lead the way tonight 7:00 Eastern right here on CNN.
We'll get right back to politics in just a moment. But first, we want to tell you about some other stories making news right now. The arson spree in the Los Angeles area has ended and police believe they have the person responsible for it. 24-year-old Harry Burkhart has been arrested in connection with more than 50 fires. Police believe he's a foreign national from Germany and say he will likely face numerous charges. He's due in court tomorrow. Burkhart is accused of setting mostly parked cars and some buildings on fire. Police say this spree went on for four days and caused $3 million in damage.
Parts of the country are getting a first taste of winter. Folks in Indiana and Michigan already put their shovels to work trying to dig out from several inches of snow. Slick roads caused a few wrecks and left some drivers actually stranded. But it was even worse in Kentucky. The winter weather there caused two pileups involving more than 70 cars. Interstate 75 was closed for several hours, no one seriously hurt.
Iran is warning the U.S. not to return an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf region. Iran says it spotted the USS John C. passing through the Strait of Hormuz a week ago during naval exercises. The commander of the Iranian army says his country won't repeat the warning. U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, which patrols the region, had no immediate response but Pentagon spokesman, George Little, says deployment in the Gulf region will continue as it has for decades. The warning from Iran came amid growing tensions over the Strait which is a critical shipping channel.
A real life murder mystery at a British royal estate. Police say a woman's body was discovered in a wooded area of Queen Elizabeth II's country estate in Sandringham, it's where the royal family traditionally spends Christmas. The cause of death is not yet known, an autopsy will be conducted later today. Police did not say how long the remains might have been there, but said they will be looking at cold cases as part of the investigation.
He's got the lead and he's got the money and Mitt Romney's got a whole lot of confidence heading into tonight's caucuses. He now says he'll win the nomination. Does he have a good reason to make such a bold prediction? That's coming up next.
But first, a political junky question for you. What year did Iowa move their caucuses ahead of New Hampshire to become the first in the nation contest? If you know the answer, send me a tweet to @RandiKayeCNN, I'll give a shout out to you right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAYE: Welcome back. Before the break, I asked what year did Iowa move their caucuses ahead of New Hampshire and become the first in the nation contest? The answer, some of you got it, is 1972. That's when Iowa moved from the middle of the process to first. The latest they've held the caucus since then is February 20th. And we want to congratulate Nick who tweeted me the correct answer. You can send him a tweet @NickTuckishappy, that's his Twitter handle.
What Iowa is to caucuses, New Hampshire is to primary. It's a small state with a huge profile just because it's first. And while almost everybody has had a turn at the top of Iowa polls, New Hampshire is Romney territory. The latest CNN polling gives Romney a gaping lead over Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and everybody else. Jennifer Horn is the New Hampshire campaign co-chair for the former Massachusetts' governor. Jennifer, nice to have you on the program. What impact, if any, do you think will the caucuses have on your state's primary?
JENNIFER HORN, CO-CHAIRWOMAN, ROMNEY NEW HAMPSHIRE CAMPAIGN: Well, there's no question that the caucuses that take place today in Iowa have the potential to give some of those candidates a good boost coming into New Hampshire. But as you just referenced, you know, the latest polling does show that the candidates here in New Hampshire are -- you know, they've been spending time here and the numbers are starting to play very much in our favor.
KAYE: And would anything other than a blowout win in New Hampshire, anything other than that, would that be seen as a loss?
HORN: Oh, no, absolutely not. Listen, the one thing we understand here in New Hampshire is that in politics 24 hours is a lifetime. Governor Romney has been running a strong grass roots campaign from day one. He has spent an awful lot of time here. He has spoken to tens of thousands of our voters. He has held dozens of town halls just in the last couple of months. He's been running a campaign as if he's three votes behind from the beginning and he's continuing to do that today.
KAYE: No question as we've watched him over the last few days, even the last few weeks, his confidence is certainly growing. But -- and then when you listen to him, he's essentially telling the crowds, I'm the nominee. So, is that part of the overall strategy? Will we be hearing that when he arrives in New Hampshire as well?
HORN: Well, I'm not sure that he's saying he is the nominee. When I hear him say things like, we're going to win that thing -- this thing, you know, he said that in every speech that he's giving, he's talking about the entire nomination. And you know, sure, we want him to be out there as enthusiastic and as confident as possible. What I see on the ground as a grass roots person, as an activist, is that people across the Republican spectrum here in New Hampshire are starting to coalesce behind governor Romney. Everybody from long-time party officials to brand-new Tea Party activists, conservatives, he has spent so much time here. He has really been able to reach out and speak to the voters across the spectrum and being very successful in articulating that conservative message of a free strong America of limited government.
KAYE: Is there anything that you see that maybe Romney did in Iowa that you wouldn't like him to do now in New Hampshire?
HORN: Oh, gosh, something he did in Iowa that I don't want him to do? Not necessarily. Obviously, I haven't been --
KAYE: No mistakes made?
HORN: Well, you'll have to ask someone who has been traveling with him in Iowa if he's made any mistakes. What I've seen from governor Romney is that he's been consistent, he's got a very clear conservative message that he is the best man for the job. He brings 25 years of private sector executive experience, four years as a conservative governor in Massachusetts, balancing budgets, cutting spending, cutting taxes, and you know, Randi, we're at a time in the history of our nation where we need a president who uses phrases like balanced budget. I don't know when the last time was Barack Obama even said that phrase. So, I think that's why you're seeing the numbers for governor Romney start to -- start to go up, you know, at this point. So many people have heard that message and are starting to come behind him.
KAYE: Let's look very quickly beyond New Hampshire as we move -- as the candidates move to South Carolina and Florida. Will the momentum that Romney is expected to get in New Hampshire be enough for him in the south?
HORN: Well, we certainly hope that it helps to push him down -- you know, help push him ahead as he goes into South Carolina. You know, Governor Romney, in addition to his strong fiscally conservative record, is a man of great personal integrity. He's a man of faith and man who you will never hear somebody make any sort of credible accusation against governor Romney that he has cheated on his taxes, on his business, or on his family. And I think that's strong and core to the conservative message. So, I think he'll do very well in South Carolina.
KAYE: Jennifer horn, pleasure to speak with you. I'm sure we'll speaking more in the days ahead. Thank you.
HORN: My pleasure, Randi, thank you so much.
KAYE: He saw his lead vanish about as fast as it appeared but Newt Gingrich says he is in it to win it, perhaps not tonight but looking ahead to New Hampshire. Up next, I'll speak to Gingrich's campaign director in that state about what he's doing to pull off a surprise win.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Iowans have an opportunity tonight to send a signal to Washington and to the political system that the age of negative consultants and 30 second attack ads is over.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: The race for the GOP presidential bid has become, without a doubt, a rotation of front-runners. Case in point, Newt Gingrich's recent roller coaster ride in the polls. With so many polls, it can get a bit confusing. We know that. But the trend is quite clear and hard to ignore.
You see the blue line right there? That is Newt Gingrich, who surged to the top and kicked off December as the front-runner. But his lead, pretty short lived. The big question is not only why, but what the drop means for Gingrich's campaign in Iowa and beyond. Gingrich's New Hampshire state director Andrew Hemingway joins us from Manchester, New Hampshire, today.
Andrew, nice to have you on the program.
What is the hope in Iowa? Let's talk about Iowa first. Where does Gingrich need to finish tonight to be in a good place for New Hampshire?
ANDREW HEMINGWAY, GINGRICH NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE DIRECTOR: I don't think that there's one specific number. There's no, you know, historical relevance to saying he needs to finish second or third. You know, John McCain's the best example of this, finishing in fourth place and doing very well here in New Hampshire.
I think that what we're looking for and what we're excited about is the show of strength of an organization. You know, for many weeks here as the state director in New Hampshire, we've been asked about the strength of our organization. And I think today, and in the coming days here in New Hampshire, we have the opportunity to show exactly what the organization is that we've been able to build in just a short time.
KAYE: As the state director there in New Hampshire, it's obviously your job to rally supporters, rally the voters there. But I want you to listen to what your boss told reporters just yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GINGRICH: I don't think I'm going to win. I think if you look at the numbers, I think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. But on the other hand, if "The Des Moines Register" was right and there's 41 percent potentially (INAUDIBLE), who knows what's going to happen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: So first he said he doesn't think he's going to win, then he backtracked this morning. Does this sort of back and forth create a dilemma at all for you in New Hampshire?
HEMINGWAY: No, it doesn't. It really doesn't. I mean my job is, when I wake up in the morning, I say, hey, look, what do we need to do today in order to win New Hampshire on January 10th. I mean that's my job. And that's what we -- that's the goal and that's the focus that we've been staying on and presenting the case to the voters here in New Hampshire, which is that, you know, we have a strong, solid, proven conservative in Newt Gingrich and we have a Massachusetts moderate in Mitt Romney who runs away from his record.
And I'm happy to stand with Newt Gingrich and present to the people of New Hampshire Newt Gingrich's balanced budget, four consecutive years as speaker of the House, 11 million new jobs under his leadership, and to take that experience and those credentials against any of the candidates in the field right now.
KAYE: So as we watch things unfold in Iowa tonight, if Newt Gingrich does end up at the bottom of the pack, what's the strategy going to be for New Hampshire? What will you do differently?
HEMINGWAY: We're not going to be doing anything differently. The strategy is to wake up tomorrow morning. We have a very aggressive schedule. We have a very strong team here. We've got 15 paid staffers, five offices, we have thousands of volunteers. People are coming in from all over the country right now. There's an incredible amount of buzz on the ground here in New Hampshire around Newt Gingrich and what's happening. We have over 3,500 Latino families that we are working with that have been brought into the program. We have a lot going on here in New Hampshire. And tomorrow starts -- is the kickoff to that. And we're excited about it. I think we have an enormous opportunity here.
KAYE: And just very quickly, I want to show you some numbers here. We're going to put them on the screen for our viewers. This is the latest CNN/"Time"/ORC poll showing that Romney is way ahead in New Hampshire at 44 percent, Gingrich at a distant third at 16 percent. And there you see the other numbers. What will you need to do there to close the gap between Romney and Newt Gingrich?
HEMINGWAY: Well, I think we keep doing exactly what we have been doing. Sure, you look at polls, and there are polls all over the place that are showing all sorts of different numbers here and there and everywhere. And you know, honestly, I get that there's some value in these polls, but the varied number of polls that there are and the varied results, I mean it's just -- what we're doing is we're keeping our head down, we're going to work every single day, we're building a very strong organization.
In the last several weeks, we've made over 156,000 phone calls. We have collected a lot of data. We've I.D.ed a lot of voters. We have a very strong ground game. That was evidence in us orchestrating and holding the largest political event of the year in Windham just last week.
So we are expecting, again, starting Wednesday morning, to put together a really great trip for Speaker Gingrich. And I think with two debates wrapped up in the middle of the week, continuing to talk about how we stand and Speaker Gingrich is a proven conservative against the Massachusetts moderate who will say anything to get elected. I think that we stand in a very good, strong position.
KAYE: All right, Andrew Hemingway, appreciate your time. Thank you very much.
HEMINGWAY: Thank you very much.
KAYE: He is the latest GOP candidate to surge. And what a time to do it. Could tomorrow's big story be all about that guy right there? Rick Santorum. Some say his last minute boost from evangelicals could bump him to the top tonight.
Up next, CNN's John King takes us back to 2008 in what's looking like a little bit of deja vu.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHELE BACHMANN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have over 200 pastors that have come out to endorse me. They're very influential in their communities, in their congregations. And I think that we're going to see a real surprise at the polls tonight with a depth of support that people didn't recognize that was there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: That was Michele Bachmann talking about her evangelical support. But does she have enough backing to take Iowa in the caucuses? According to the latest "Des Moines Register" poll, the answer is no. Instead, Rick Santorum is surging in the polls thanks to his evangelical supporters. Some are even calling him the Huckabee of 2012. Is there a chance that he could beat Mitt Romney. John King joins us now.
And, John, Mitt Romney has been down this road before. We've seen this. He thought he would win the Iowa caucus in 2008, but he lost it to Mike Huckabee, who carried the evangelical vote. So what do you think needs to happen this time around in order for Romney to actually take Iowa? JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, let's go back in time, Randi, and look at Iowa four years ago among the Republicans. It's not directly analogous, but we can learn a lot of lessons from what happened then.
This is Governor Romney over here. Let me get out a little bit. This is Governor Romney, the dark red over here. If you see this starting to fill in like this tonight for Romney, that means he's off to a good start. The eastern part of the state, Dubuque, Cedar Rapids, Davenport. This is the greatest Romney straight where you find more moderate conservatives. You also find bigger populations. If he can do this again, he's off to a good start tonight.
Another key for Romney, in the western part of the state, he did pretty well four years ago. This is more conservative country. This is more of a challenge for Governor Romney. If you're seeing this fill in for Romney tonight, again, he's off to a good start.
But look at all of this in the middle. Look at all that orange. Who's that? That's Mike Huckabee. These are small, rural towns where you find evangelical and Tea Party voters. These are the people Rick Santorum needs if he -- if Rick Santorum is filling in the middle of the state like this, he could well win Iowa tonight as Huckabee did four years ago.
But you just mentioned Michele Bachmann. Rick Perry, also, according to evangelical voters. Let's talk this off. I want to show you something. We break down the map. This is Tea Party strength. You're looking at Iowa now. The darker the color, the higher the percentage of people who say they identify with the Tea Party. Remember where these dark areas are because they overlap, if you bring back the demographic, let's look at evangelical voters. They are down here in the south, up here in the middle in the small, rural counties.
This is the key. The new Republican Party has both evangelical voters and Tea Party voters, Randi. If Rick Santorum is to win the state, right now he has a good position. He's been surging in the polls. To get over the top, his people have to go into these caucuses in these small counties, look the Bachmann people in the eye, look the Perry people in the eye and say, your candidate can't win tonight. Come to our side. We can beat Mitt Romney and have a conservative voice heading out. It's a big challenge for them, but that will be one of the fascinating things to watch.
How does the Tea Party play, how do the evangelical voters play, and do we get back to this? If one candidate is filling in the middle of the state tonight, that means they're doing very well with Tea Party and evangelical voters. If you get more of a mash, if you will, the different colors of the different candidates, and we've got the list of them here running this time, then it's harder to do. Watch Romney in the east and the west. The big fight will be in the middle.
KAYE: Yes, John, you've been doing this a long time. I mean, what do you make of the different strategies that the candidates have played out here? I mean especially looking at Santorum. He made it a point to visit all 99 counties. What about the other strategies? Good or bad? KING: There's the old fashioned way, hands on retail politics. Visit them all, 99 counties. I've been to all of them over the course of my career. It's , a great state to visit. And there's the new way to do it. Let's take a look at some of that.
If we do this by candidate visits, right, this is just from September. Now this looks a little bit confusing, but let's break it down. Michele Bachmann says she will get to all 99 by the end of this. Again, she's done it the old fashioned way. Rick Santorum, this is just since September, he has touched all 99 counties. Been back to many of them several times. He is the true do it the old fashioned way. The least amount of money. We'll see if this works out.
But look, in the converse, at Governor Romney. He's hardly noticed here in the state. He has been there the least of all of the candidates and yet he could well win the state tonight. So candidate visits aren't as important as before unless Rick Santorum proves us wrong.
One more thing I want to look at, Randi, bring up quickly here. Just bring up the TV ad spending. This is just by the candidates. This light orange. That's Rick Perry. He has bought more campaign ads in Iowa than any other candidate. Yet, at the moment, he's struggling in the polls. We'll see if that changes overnight. Governor Romney, a decent slice. Most of those have been ads promoting Governor Romney.
One more thing I want to add. It's not just the candidates. There are these political action committees helping them out as well. And if you bring that front and center, you see a bigger slice for Governor Romney there. The political action committee supporting Governor Romney and Ron Paul more than anyone else have run negative attacks that have brought Newt Gingrich down. It leads us to the state of the play as we finally get to count some votes tonight.
KAYE: It is going to be a long but interesting night, John.
KING: Fun day. Fun day.
KAYE: Thank you.
And be sure to tune in tonight at 6:00 Eastern to "John King USA." On tonight's show, Herman Cain and Rick Perry. He's a preview.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICK PERRY, (R), GOVERNOR OR TEXAS & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think you go and share with the people of South Carolina the real message of who has the consistency and is an authentic conservative. Mitt Romney has got a real problem when it comes to consistency. Those folks in South Carolina, I can promise you, they are not going to buy a pig in a poke, so to speak. And a Massachusetts governor that put mandates in place that Obama took as the model to create Obama-care is not going to sell in South Carolina.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: You can watch that interview tonight on "John King USA" at 6:00 eastern time.
He hasn't seen his support dwindle in Iowa but Mitt Romney hasn't seen it rise much either. Will his fair-but-steady numbers be enough to pull off a win tonight or could it be a repeat of '08? I'll ask someone who knows, the man who ran Romney's campaign in Iowa four years ago. "Fair Game" is next.
But first, a "Political Junkie" question for you: What percentage of 2008 GOP caucus-goers consider themselves to be evangelical Christians? Send me a tweet to @randikaye/CNN. I'll give you a shout out if you have the answer right after the break.
(SINGING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(SINGING)
KAYE: Before the break, I asked what percentage of 2008 Republican caucus-goers consider themselves to be evangelical Christians. And the answer -- many of you got this right -- is 60 percent. They overwhelmingly went for Mike Huckabee in 2008, vaulting him to a surprise win in Iowa. Congrats again to Nick who tweeted me the right answer. His Twitter handle @nicktuck is Happy Nick. I don't know if you're sitting with your hand on the send button or what. Congratulations. Nicely done.
This is the part of the show when we go to the heart of the political debate where all sides are "Fair Game."
Joining me is CNN contributor, Maria Cardona; and former RNC political director, Mitt Romney's Iowa state director, Gentry Collins.
Thanks for coming on the show.
Let's start with the so-called Santorum surge or some are even calling it Santorum-mentum. What is specifically behind it? Religion, conservatism, his travels to all 99 counties?
Gentry, you're from Iowa. How would you describe it?
GENTRY COLLINS, FORMER RNC DIRECTOR & FORMER ROMNEY IOWA STATE DIRECTOR: I think all of the above. I think that Senator Santorum and his campaign have run a very good Iowa campaign. As you rightly say, they've been to all 99 counties. Not many candidates have done that this time around. They've got a great message that fits the caucus electorate. As you just showed, some 60 percent of caucus- goers in 2008 considered themselves evangelicals. And his message fits in a way other candidates don't. It makes a lot of sense that we've seen a surge from Senator Santorum in the closing days.
The question for tonight, whether he's well organized enough to capture it. 41 percent, according to the "Register" poll a few days ago, said they still had room to change their minds. Their decision wasn't firm. And so in those 1700 caucus locations around the state, one of key questions will be, who has the best of the friends and neighbors in those communities that can make the most persuasive argument for these candidates, and who can pull the votes to their side. I think that's one disadvantage he may have, simply because he hasn't been a prominent candidate for long enough.
KAYE: Yes, but if you look at Mitt Romney's numbers, quite frankly, they are not moving much. He's been stagnant, hanging around the 20 percent range there all along.
That actually might be good enough to win this year. So what does this say, Maria, about the race?
MARIA CARDONA, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think what it says about the race, Randi, is that the GOP voters are still looking for that anybody-but-Romney candidate. The reason why that percentage didn't work for him in 2008 is because they were able to coalesce behind that anybody-but-Romney or the real conservative candidate in their eyes, which was Huckabee.
This time around, they have had basically a parade of candidates that they have thought they could get behind but ultimately decided perhaps were not somebody who could get to the very end.
What's so interesting about Santorum -- and I agree with everything that's been said here. His travels through the 99 counties. He's had more than 300 town halls in the last year alone. Let's not forget that Iowa voters put a tremendous premium on retail politicking. They like to see the candidate eye to eye. It's been said Santorum may have bought every GOP Iowa caucus-goer a cup of coffee. That may be able to take him to victory tonight if he has those passionate followers at each of these caucuses that can make the case that these religious conservative social voters will be able to vote for somebody that they really can feel good about. Santorum might be able to pull it off.
KAYE: But, Gentry, going back to Governor Romney's numbers here, some say he waltzed into Iowa and got a late start. If he had gone in earlier, do you think he would have higher numbers?
COLLINS: I think Governor Romney has worked the state quite well. He had a reservoir of support and identified voters that would caucus on his behalf. He's had a leaner campaign as he's focused on the campaign as the national frontrunner. But they've handled Iowa quite well. And it may pay off here. It's quite likely his support in eastern Iowa will remain very high.
I also think it's very likely that he will over perform his 2008 number in the Des Moines area, the Des Moines media market in particular. He has not been savaged on talk radio in Des Moines the way he was consistently four years ago.
I think the big question will be western Iowa, whether he can get his fair share of western Iowa conservatives. To me, that's one of big unknowns of the campaign. I think he's in very good shape. You've got to say that a first or second-place finish for Governor Romney, given the performance that his campaign has had in the state over the course of the year, is a good place for him to be at this point.
KAYE: Maria, a quick question about Newt Gingrich. He has blamed his drop in the polls on the negative ad campaign. He blames Romney for much of that. These ads have only aired in Iowa, not nationally. Is that a fair argument?
CARDONA: I do think it's a fair argument. Anybody who has been in politics as long as Newt Gingrich has knows that negative ads work. Frankly, he broke one of the key mantras of politics, a commandment, if you will, which is, thou shalt not have any attack go unanswered. And he did that, hoping that by saying that everybody should stay positive that that would be enough. And sure, he didn't have enough money, money like Romney or Perry, to go on TV to answer those attack ads, but we live in a digital world these days where he could have answered it easily and cheaply. He could have done web videos or done conference calls or webinars pointing out every place he's being attacked unfairly.
When voters see a candidate who let's an attack go unanswered, they think, if this candidate won't stand up for himself, how will he stand up for us. That really went a long way towards having his numbers really fall in Iowa. And I think it's spreading nationally, too.
KAYE: Maria Cardona, Gentry Collins, thank you very much, both of you.
That is "Fair Game" today.
CARDONA: Thank you, Randi.
COLLINS: Thank you.
KAYE: CNN is the place that you want to be tonight for the Iowa caucuses. We'll have special live coverage like no other network on television can. Wolf Blitzer and Anderson Cooper lead the way tonight at 7:00 eastern time.
The spotlight may be on Republicans tonight. Don't forget there's someone else on that ballot in Iowa -- this guy right here. Fresh off a 10-day vacation, President Obama is about to do a little campaigning of his own. We'll tell you how he's playing into Iowa tonight coming up next. Yes, that guy. We were a little early on that one. There he is. That guy right there.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAYE: Believe it or not, the Democrats are caucusing tonight in Iowa as well. There's not as much at stake on the surface, but the Obama re-election campaign and the Democratic National Committee isn't sitting idly by.
Joining me now is DNC communications director, Brad Woodhouse.
How is the president reaching out to Democrats in Iowa tonight? BRAD WOODHOUSE, DNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: We're real excited. The president is going to speak to several of the caucuses tonight that are going on. We've been here, you know, really going back to when the president first ran. We've never left Iowa. And during this campaign, we've held 4,000 one-on-one meetings and 1200 house parties and made 350,000 phone calls.
We're real excited about the enthusiasm that Democrats have for the president in Iowa. And we think the caucuses will be a real good time tonight. We're not trying to turn out a lot of people but it's a great organizing opportunity for us. And we're excited the president will participate in it.
KAYE: Just a short time ago, White House Press Spokesman Jay Carney had this to say about the president and his focus on the caucus tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAY CARNEY, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Like many of us, he will, I'm sure, be interested to see what the results are in the other parties' caucuses. I'm sure he is, as -- no more or less interested than the rest of us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KAYE: So what is the message then that the administration would like to get out to supporters in Iowa tonight?
WOODHOUSE: Well, I'll tell you, on our side, what we would like to make sure the people know is that the president made a series promises when he won the Iowa caucus in 2008. He said he would fight for middle class. He's provided middle class tax cuts. He said he would make health care more affordable. He passed health care reform. Make college education more affordable. He passed student loan reform. The Republicans would say the president hasn't kept his promises but the record is far different. That's a great message to our supporters.
And then I think we want to talk about the differences between the president fighting for the middle class and Republicans, like Mitt Romney, who want to go back to Wall Street doing the same type things it was doing that led to the financial collapse.
KAYE: How would you say the president is handling the bashing and the attacks that are coming his way from the GOP candidates?
WOODHOUSE: As you've seen, the president has been busy with his day job. He was in the fight with Republicans in Congress who didn't want to extend the payroll tax cut for the middle class. He's going to continue to try to work with Congress. And when he can't, he's going to do what he can to try to help the middle class and make sure that they realize the security that they need. and he'll focus on the campaign when there's -- when there's a candidate on the other side. Right now, we're trying to do that to the extent we can. KAYE: Right. Very, very quickly, we know that obviously Iowa was critical for the president in 2008. How critical do you think it is this time around?
WOODHOUSE: I think it's extremely critical. It's an important swing state. And that's one of the reasons that we have -- it would have been easy for us -- say, we'll come back and organize Iowa later. We're organizing it right now. And I'll tell you, Randi, tomorrow, when the caucuses are over, the president will have the most organized campaign, not the winner of the caucus.
KAYE: Brad Woodhouse, a pleasure to speak with you. Thank you very much.
WOODHOUSE: Thank you.
KAYE: By this time tomorrow, we'll know who came out on top in Iowa. What key indicators can we watch for tonight that might give us a sneak peek at who the winner will be? We asked CNN's best and brightest for the top-five things to watch for tonight. We'll tell you what they are next.
But first, another "Political Junkie" question for you: how many states hold caucuses instead of primaries? If you know the right answer, send me a tweet and I'll give a shout-out to you right after the break.
(SINGING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(SINGING)
KAYE: Before the break, I asked you how many states hold Republican caucus instead of primaries. And the answer was 13 states. The Virgin Islands also hold a caucus instead of primaries. Congrats to the person with the handle @moey28 who tweeted me the right answer first.
The Iowa caucuses are an important litmus test for the GOP presidential candidates. The direction and results tonight will be telling and may very well steer the direction of this Republican race.
Here are five key things to keep your eye on. Number five, turnout. Every election depends on it, how and how many supporters turn out. It can determine who will win the Republican nomination. Looking at the bigger picture, the sheer number of people who gather at the caucuses could give us a glimpse of the GOP's enthusiasm. Keep in mind, just two years ago, it was conservative fervor that put a Democratic-controlled House back in the hands of the Republicans. The question is, is that same intensity and sense of purpose still there? What will President Obama be up against?
That brings me to number four, the evangelical vote. This group will be key tonight, especially for Rick Santorum. According to "The New York Times," 60 percent of the people who attended the Republican caucuses four years ago identified themselves as evangelicals. Analysts say a high turnout of evangelicals tonight could help Santorum just like they helped propel Mike Huckabee to a win in 2008. Low evangelical turnout could be a sign that voters are more interested in economic issues, not social ones.
And then there is issue number three, who stands to lose? Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann have all dropped in the polls but are battling to stay in this race behind the top three. Political experts say placing fourth may be their best hope. If they place any lower, some say dropping out of the race may be their only viable option.
And number two, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum could benefit from who loses. Santorum has been surging recently. According to the latest "Des Moines Register" poll on Saturday, it showed him rounding out the top three. Santorum says he didn't come to lose. He says the people of Iowa have "kicked his tires and lit his fires." That is a direct quote. And the same poll has Ron Paul in second. Paul's campaign told CNN on Monday it has signed up more than 1400 volunteers to serve as precinct leaders tonight in Iowa, which is another reason is he expected to end up in the top three.
And finally, number one, all eyes will be on Mitt Romney, who many see as the potential leader. Romney hasn't spent much time campaigning in Iowa but he recently stepped up his efforts there. He told a crowd in Marion (ph) on Monday, we are going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength. Recent polls in the "Des Moines Register" show Romney with the support of 24 percent of caucus-goers. Political experts say, if Romney wins by an impressive margin, the impact on his campaign could be dramatic.
So you've heard what our analysts and the experts are saying. But what about you at home? We have scoured the Hawkeyes state to see what actual voters think of the race and the candidates. Your opinions coming up next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED VOTER: I like what Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann stand for, more conservative principles. I think Romney and Gingrich, there's too much volatility with both of them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KAYE: Welcome back. We are about six hours away from the start of the Iowa caucus. Apparently, only 7 percent are undecided. That's according to a "Des Moines Register" poll.
What do Iowans think of the process? And who are they voting for? We asked Iowans across the state what they think, and here's what they had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: It's different than a primary. It deals with the grass roots. It deals with people in small rooms like this, able to talk to candidates, question candidates so you're getting a broader view point of the electorate versus a primary system. So that is a more accurate rendition of what's happening.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: But I think if we don't choose a candidate during out caucus that a viable candidate and goes on to win the nomination, I think we will lose some of our importance. I think we really need to take our roles seriously and consider who we want to be our nominee, not just who's popular at the moment.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: In Iowa, you have not maybe the most diverse set of people but there's a good cross-section between young, old, different ages, different income levels, different educational levels. And people are active. They want to meet their candidates and see them eye to eye. They don't just want to see what is on the news.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: We're inundated with all of the political candidates. We do feel it's an honor to have them come. And it is prestigious to be able to be the first in the nation to be selecting this candidate. Exciting, yes. It's a lot, it's a lot to have them here all the time. If you're not going to the caucus, it's not because you don't care or are frustrated. I think it's just a lot, a lot to take in.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: We get -- I don't know -- about 10, 15 calls a day from various politicians. I've almost decided to vote for who I hear the least from.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: I don't feel like a caucus really dictates the outcome of an election. I don't put much stock in it. I'll go out and vote in November but I won't caucus.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: It's not so much issue-based but character based. If you have a man or woman of integrity in office, then most of the right decisions I think are going to be made because of that.
KAYE (voice-over): Iowans are getting tired but they are still heading to the poll. Who will they vote for?
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: Rick Santorum is someone I've considered. But I never thought I'd say this, but Ron Paul is who I would consider at this point.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: I like Ron Paul's domestic policy but I'm scared of his foreign policy. And I don't want him to get the nomination. I don't want him to win Iowa. So I -- just based on all that, I've decided to go with Governor Romney.
UNIDENTIFIED IOWA RESIDENT: I was a total Obama supporter. Cried at the election-night results, sitting next to my dad, so excited. I feel like Obama's just been a little disappointing. I understand it's hard to work with Congress because they're so divided but I think he could have stepped up a little bit more. So Mitt Romney is looking pretty good to me.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KAYE: Thank you for watching today. You can continue the conversation with me online at Facebook and Twitter. You can find me @randikaye/CNN
Thanks again for watching. I will hand it over to now. The news continues with Brooke Baldwin.
Hi, there.
BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there. Good to see you. This place is buzzing.
KAYE: It sure is.
BALDWIN: Quite the day.
KAYE: It's an exciting day.
BALDWIN: I will take it from here.
Randi Kaye, thank you so much.
