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Presidential Race Begins in Earnest; Newt Gingrich Looks for Last-Minute Boost; Deputy May Have Ended Arson Spree in Los Angeles; Caucus Countdown; Effect of Super PACs

Aired January 03, 2012 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everyone. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

As always, let's get you caught up on everything making news this hour. We always begin with "Rapid Fire." And have to talk Iowa here.

We are one day away from Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses. As you know, these are the first results from the presidential campaign. Mitt Romney still trending in first place in the most recent polls, but you know polls. They can change on a dime.

We are committing most of the next two hours to politics, but first let's get you caught up on the day's other news.

Much of the Midwest right now digging out from the first major winter storm of the year. Look at these pictures. Heavy snowfall, ice causing multiple car pileups in four different states.

And this is in Indianapolis. This is what it looked like there just yesterday. Eighteen cars involved in this one.

To Kentucky we go. A 30-car pileup there closed I-75 for just about four hours. That was in Grant County. There were injuries, none of them were serious.

A cold front behind this system is causing temperatures to plunge in the Southeast today. I am sure you are feeling it.

It looks like the arson spree terrorizing the Los Angeles area is finally over, and the L.A. County sheriff is crediting Reserve Deputy Shervin Lalezary for pulling over the man authorities now believe is the person responsible for many of those 52 fires that have erupted since Friday. Lalezary, did you know, paid $1 a year?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHERVIN LALEZARY, LOS ANGELES COUNTY RESERVE DEPUTY: Thank you to the men and women of the L.A. County Sheriff's Department West Hollywood Station for coming into work every day, doing this full time, putting their lives on the line every day, full time. I really appreciate everything you guys do. And I look forward to coming back for my next shift with you guys.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BALDWIN: Arson suspect Harry Burkhart is a German citizen. He is scheduled to be in court today. And CNN affiliates in L.A. report Burkhart carried a grudge against America because of a deportation conflict involving his mother.

And New York police have released this sketch. Take a good, long look.

This is the man they believe is behind multiple molotov cocktail attacks in Queens. The attacks have hit an Islamic center, a home that's also used as a Hindu temple, and a convenient store. A fourth bombing of a home may also be related to this case. All in all, no one was hurt. Community leaders gathered today denouncing the acts which NYPD's hate crime division is now officially investigating.

Three explosions rocked Kandahar today in southern Afghanistan, killing more than a dozen people there. In fact, in one of the blasts, an IED went off, but did not jury anyone.

And when people gathered around it, a suicide bomber, though, on a motorcycle blew himself up near this crowd. Four children and a police officer were killed in another suicide bombing.

And we are now just about a month away from the 2012 Super Bowl, and already the commercials have sold out at record prices. Listen to this. Advertisers paid an average of $3.5 million for a whopping 30- second spot. NBC not yet releasing the advertisers, at least yet, but Internet domain retailer Go Daddy says its ads will run for the eighth year in a row.

And CNN NEWSROOM will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: This is it. Check the clock with me. Fewer than six hours to go before the start of the 2012 election with, as you now know, the Iowa caucuses. There is not a second to waste. The GOP candidates out in full force, still campaigning today. Final stretch, closing arguments, if you will.

In fact, let's play some sound. This is Mitt Romney at a rally in Des Moines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As I believe, this is a campaign and an election which will decide the future of America. On one hand, you have the traditional values that have made America the hope of the Earth. When the founders crafted this country and they wrote the Declaration of Independence, they chose these words with great cares, as you know. The creator had endowed us with certain unalienable rights. Among them, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

That phrase, that last phrase, "the pursuit of happiness," if you haven't given it that much thought, think about it. It means that in this country we would be free to choose our course in life. The circumstance of birth would not be a barrier, the government telling us what we can do would not be a barrier. Even the failure to attain educational degrees would not be determinative in your life's course.

My dad, after all, never graduated from college, but believed in America and in this opportunity society, and knew that by virtue of his hard work and risk-taking and dreaming he could achieve great things. He became head of a car company, became a governor. A remarkable story in America time and time repeated. We are an opportunity nation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Mitt Romney there in Des Moines.

Let's stay in Des Moines and go straight to Chief White House Correspondent Jessica Yellin, doing double duty for us on the campaign trail.

Hardly your first trip to Iowa, Jessica Yellin. Let's me just start with the obvious. We just heard from him, Mitt Romney.

I mean, could tonight be the night when the off-and-on front-runner finally breaks through?

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Brooke, I can't imagine anything short of Romney absolutely crushing the rest of the field being a true breakthrough for him, but winning here would give him real momentum. You know, sources in the Romney camp I've talked to are just sort of hearing reporters ask him, why can't Romney break 25 percent support in all these polls? And if he were to get place number one here, I think that would give him the push he needs to start breaking 25 percent in some of these future contests. So that alone would be a major accomplishment for the Romney team -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK. So breaking the 25 percent, an accomplishment for them.

What else? Just bigger picture, Jessica, what are you looking for tonight as you watch all of this?

YELLIN: Well, you know the old saying in Iowa is that there are only three tickets out of town here. So everybody will be looking at who places among the first three finishers, and then going to what we were just talking about, what percentage of support they do get.

And then it will also be interesting to listen to their victory speeches. You know, if Romney does well, will the other candidates start going after him in a more aggressive way? I sort of expected them to at some point really take sharp aim at him in a way that hasn't happened. And then what you hear from the bottom tier candidates.

And if Romney isn't at the top of the pack, it will really be a fascinating night. So no one knows. So we're all eagerly watching. BALDWIN: You know, I was talking to the national campaign chairman for Ron Paul just on the show yesterday, and he said obviously they are gunning for a win. He said to me they were feeling sort of 50/50 about it. And I'm just curious if there's a worry among Iowa Republicans, a strong showing on behalf of Ron Paul that could perhaps taint the results of the caucuses and diminish their relevance down the road.

YELLIN: Among establishment Republicans, the answer simply is yes, and that's because recall four year ago, Mike Huckabee won here, but he didn't have legs to go further and win the nomination. And so many establishment Republicans believe Ron Paul also cannot capture the Republican nomination.

And so among this group there is a concern that if Ron Paul is to win here, and can't capture the nomination, then that makes Iowa's caucuses less meaningful, less relevant, in their view, or they fear it will be, as a selector of the Republican candidate, and that we'll al start paying less attention, because look how much attention we're giving it now if it's not a determiner of the nominee. You can imagine what they're worried about.

BALDWIN: OK. And you point out there are only three ways out of town in Iowa. I mean, Iowa is less known for picking winners, right, than eliminating losers?

How many candidates do you think, Jessica, are likely to be standing after tonight?

YELLIN: You know, it sort of depends how poorly the bottom tier candidates do. Unless somebody does absolutely abysmally, I would be surprised if anybody stands up tonight and bows out tonight. They would have to have a terrible showing.

But what you are more likely to see, I think, is somebody saying in the next few days that they've decided to endorse someone else or take a break. And what tends to happen is that they can't fund-raise anymore and they don't have the money to go on because they're just not seeing the support. So it tends to happen in the days after Iowa, but hey, surprises happen, and that's what this night is all about, so you never know.

BALDWIN: That's what makes this fun. You never know.

Jessica Yellin, we'll talk next hour. Thank you, ma'am, in Des Moines, Iowa, for us.

Let's check on another live event happening now. Newt Gingrich is actually taking questions right now. This is at the Drake restaurant in Burlington, Iowa.

Here he is. Let's just dip in.

(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)

(JOINED IN PROGRESS) NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to go into both states.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And Florida?

GINGRICH: Very soon.

Yes?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: New Hampshire and Florida?

GINGRICH: New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. All three. In my mind, the three are actually one continuous primary.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (OFF-MIKE)

GINGRICH: You raise more money.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (OFF-MIKE)

GINGRICH: No. You need Saturday's "Wall Street Journal" saying I had the strongest economic plan and Romney was afraid to debate Obama and afraid to defend the successful -- and that his plan was so weak on the economy, that it resembled Obama. And you could go to almost every successful person in America and say, you want this nominee? And I think you'd raise a lot of money.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (OFF-MIKE)

GINGRICH: We're just getting started. I said this to you last night. Figuring out what the core contrast for the next 30 days is, is the most important thing we're doing right now. I am less concerned about the first wave of ads than I am about getting the strategy right. And I'm fairly convinced that we have a strategy that Romney will find very, very hard to deal with.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Talking about Romney's abortion position and talking about (INAUDIBLE)?

GINGRICH: What are you talking about?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (OFF-MIKE) and you've seen him as a moderate, as a liberal, even. Is that not an attack on him --

GINGRICH: Wait. Well, hold on. Wait. Time out. Time out.

I'll just ask you a simple question. Does Romneycare include tax-paid abortions?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (OFF-MIKE)

GINGRICH: He did what?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That he vetoed a bill that would have changed the definition of when life begins, that he maintained a pro-life position. GINGRICH: Right. And my question is, does Romneycare provide for state-paid abortions?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I will agree with where's the line?

GINGRICH: Where it's factual. As long as it's factually accurate -- I mean, it can't be seen as a negative campaign to describe accurately somebody's record, otherwise --

BALDWIN: All right. So, the former Speaker of the House there, Burlington, Iowa, answering some questions.

He mentioned ads. He actually acknowledged today, look, he has been hammered by these attack ads, acknowledging, yes, it most definitely affected his standing in the polls. But he also called Mitt Romney a Massachusetts moderate, and he's ready to take him on come Massachusetts' primary.

We're going to be dipping in as these different candidates are making their final pitches before everyone goes to caucus tonight in Iowa.

We should also point out that Joe Johns, one of our own correspondents, following the Newt Gingrich camp today. And coming up next, we will go inside that campaign.

Stay right here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: We are certainly getting into the final hours here before the Iowa caucuses. The candidates busy making their last-minute stops.

Let's listen to Newt Gingrich again today in Burlington.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GINGRICH: This election is not just a referendum on Obama. This election is an effort to find somebody and to find a program that can get America back on the right track.

Now, that is a dramatically bigger question than politics as usual. And one of the reasons I've talked so much about the negative campaigning is it totally clutters the ability of the American people to have an adult conversation about solutions.

I mean, we are in real trouble. If this was just a game, if this was like a senior class president, that would be one thing. But this isn't a game. This is the presidency of the most important country in the world at a time when the whole planet is shaking.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Speaking of the negative campaigning, really over the course of the last 24 hours the former Speaker of the House has been lowering expectations, admits, yes, he's been hit by these negative ads, and acknowledges that they have had an impact on him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GINGRICH: I don't think I'm going to win. I think if you look at the numbers, I think that volume of negativity has done enough damage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: But then hours before Iowans have their say tonight, the former Speaker also feeling optimistic.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GINGRICH: There's 41 percent who are undecided. It's very possible to win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: OK. So why the 180?

CNN's Joe Johns live in Des Moines.

And so, Joe, he doesn't think he's going to win, and then he might win, acknowledging that 41 percent, you know, people who haven't made up their minds. What does that mean? What's he thinking?

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, when you have got people running all over a state like Iowa trying to drum up support for you, and you've got a bunch of people saying they're going to vote for you, they're going to caucus for Newt Gingrich, it's kind of disheartening for the fearless leader, as it were, to go out and say, oh, I don't think I'm going to win.

So, one of his supporters actually pulled him to the side and said, look, don't say this, please. It's not helping. And Gingrich pretty much said, all right, I'll change my tune a little bit, and so he did. That's basically what happened. He got upbraided for that kind of pessimism leading up to the caucuses -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Has he -- when you listen to a lot of Newt Gingrich over the course of the last week or two, he's really sort of been on the defense. Do you think he will continue playing defense, or will he change that up?

JOHNS: Well, you know, it's not far from the caucuses now, so I don't think he has too much time to change his message dramatically. However, it's pretty clear that once he gets to New Hampshire, South Carolina, where he likely makes his last stand, that's going to be a whole different story, because he's told me, he's told others that he's changing the message and changing the way he's going to handle things because of the negative attacks from the Mitt Romney super PAC.

You know, those ads have been very harsh and they have done a lot of damage to Newt Gingrich. So he's sure to change his approach once he gets out of Iowa. It's pretty clear that there wasn't enough time for him to do it here, although, quite frankly, a lot of people say -- and I think he really even acknowledges -- that he should have reacted quicker than he did.

BALDWIN: Yes. I think -- I had Gloria Borger on yesterday basically saying the same thing, look for post-Iowa and Newt Gingrich not necessarily to remain above the fray.

Joe Johns, thank you very much.

And just a quick reminder to all of you. Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Erin Burnett, John King, Ali Velshi and many, many more bringing us into the 2012 election primary season tonight, 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time. It will be like nothing you have ever seen before.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: For the first time in five days people in the Hollywood are waking up to no charred cars, no fears that their homes could be the next target of a serial arsonist. The lack of fires, finally, since the arrest of this 24-year-old German citizen -- his name is Harry Burkhart -- may be the most telling piece of evidence thus far. And the man who caught Burkhart is someone who makes $1 a year working for L.A. County.

CNN's Thelma Gutierrez is live for us in Los Angeles.

You know, Thelma, reading about this deputy, this is a guy who's a lawyer. He just moonlights as a deputy, right?

THELMA GUTIERREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, and that's the interesting part of the story, Brooke.

Law enforcement officials are calling this the arrest of a lifetime. Thirty-year-old Shervin Lalezary, who was born in Tehran, as you had mentioned, just earns $1 a year as a reserve deputy. And this part- time deputy who's being hailed a hero in Hollywood is actually a full- time Beverly Hills real estate attorney.

He was on patrol Monday morning when he saw a suspect driving a van that matched the description of a man caught on surveillance video leaving the site of an arson fire. He pulled the van over and, with backup from Los Angeles Police, arrested the suspect.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LALEZARY: I don't want to get into any details of the traffic stop or anything that happened surrounding the events. I'm just going to wait for the legal process to continue, and when it's all said and done, we can have a long conversation.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tell me about your day job.

LALEZARY: I'll tell you that this is a lot more exciting than my day job.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're a lawyer?

LALEZARY: I'm a lawyer, yes. I work in real estate. I work with real estate investors.

GUTIERREZ: Lalezary also has two brothers. One is a doctor; the other, a law student who, following in his older brother's footsteps, he is also a reserve deputy -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Deputy, lawyer. Obviously the guy is pretty astute.

I do want to ask about this suspect. Now we have a name, Harry Burkhart. What are authorities sharing with regard to a motive?

GUTIERREZ: Well, Brooke, of course right now, in terms of the motive, that is a little premature. But we do know is he's 24 old, the man accused of terrorizing Hollywood residents. And as one official said, the mayor said, holding his city under siege since last Friday.

Again, 24 years old, Harry Burkhart, a foreign national from Germany who was in this country legally. Burkhart lived with his mother in Hollywood.

Arson investigators say that he started dozens of fires by dropping small cubes, the ones used to start charcoal fires, on parked cars, giving him minutes to escape. Investigators also say that he was using those burning cars to start the building fires.

In terms of motive, they believe that he may have been upset over his mother's immigration status. She was set to be deported from this country.

BALDWIN: And she has a hearing this afternoon. Is that right?

GUTIERREZ: Yes, she does. She has a hearing later this afternoon in federal court.

Apparently, the hearing is set because it's following an arrest warrant that was issued by Germany. We don't have details on what that is related to though at this point -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK. Thelma Gutierrez, as soon as you hear any more, obviously let us know. Thank you so much, for us in Los Angeles.

Have you heard about these comments made by Rick Santorum about entitlement programs? And I'm quoting him. "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money. I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money."

After this quick break, we're going to show you the clip. Got a guest who is very fired up over this. See it for yourself, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: He's tweeting. He's tweeting through the commercial breaks.

Hello, Roland Martin.

ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Hey. We've got to keep our folks informed. BALDWIN: And we are keeping them informed.

MARTIN: Yes.

BALDWIN: And you and I were talking earlier, and you are fired up over something Rick Santorum said just this past Sunday. So let me just set this up

MARTIN: Sure.

BALDWIN: OK, let me set this up.

He was asked about foreign influence in the U.S., and he went on to talk about the U.S. entitlement system. Here he was.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've got so much foreign influence in this country now, I'm looking at a Coke can that has got a polar bear on it. Where do we go from here?

RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, one of the things I've talked about is we have to start focusing on the economy in this country and making things here in America again.

That, you know, you look at the economy of whether it's Sioux City or most small towns, not just in the Midwest, but around the country. They were built around manufacturing and processing. There's no different here. This is a big manufacturing area of the country and this was a big town for manufacturing.

And, of course, you've lost a lot of that manufacturing over the years. Look, when I was a congressman for two of those years I was in Congress, I was only in Congress four years, but for two of those years I represented the steel valley of Pittsburgh, which I should say, the former steel valley of Pittsburgh.

And I actually, you know, represented an area that went from literally hundreds of thousands of steel workers to less than 20,000 steel workers. And I come from that and I come from a blue collar small town.

So when I put together my economic plan, I look at just the reality of what is going on in small town America. What's going on in blue collar America? Non-college educated have unemployment rate of two and a half times those who are college educated.

What president Obama wants to do, his economic plan is to make more people dependent upon the government, to make sure we have more food stamps and more SSI and more Medicaid. Four in 10 children now are on government-provided health care.

It just keeps expanding. I was in Indiana all a few months ago when I was talking to someone who works at the Department of Public Welfare here and she told me that the state of Iowa is going to get fined if they don't sign up for people under the Medicaid program.

They're just pushing harder and harder to get more and more of you depended upon them so they can get your vote. That's what the bottom line is. I don't want to make people' lives better by giving them somebody else's money.

I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for themselves and their families. And the best way to do that is to get the manufacturing sector of the economy rolling again.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: So it's the last little bit of that that got under your skin?

MARTIN: Yes because first of all, you're talking about I want to make you and make your lives better. And he talks about African-Americans. He actually says about blacks.

BALDWIN: I wasn't there.

MARTIN: And then, of course, you look at the state of Iowa, 84 percent of the state who get assistance, they are white. They are not African-Americans.

So what happens is you reinforce this view, food stamps, government subsidies, it's African-Americans who are getting it. I think if you look at unemployment benefits, there are white folks getting unemployment benefits.

BALDWIN: Let me explain, at least I can, because Scott Pelley with CBS News, he sat down with Santorum and try to explain the context of why he said that and he said that he had seen waiting for Superman.

MARTIN: Which I saw as well.

BALDWIN: Right, about the American education system featuring different kids of different races. I'm just saying this is what he told Kelly. Let me quote him.

He said, "Let me just say that no matter what, I want to make everyone lives better. I don't want anybody, and if you look at what I've been saying, I've been pretty clear about my concern for dependency in country and concern for people not being more dependent on our government whatever their race or ethnicity is."

MARTIN: Got you, and if I may asks is how then, that you arrive in only mentioning African-Americans in a room based upon reporting that was virtually all white? That's cute to say, I watched the film.

I saw the film as well. I saw the Hispanic kids in it, black kids in it, and white kids in it. I saw them talk about the future of our education system where we will be in the next generation.

And so, please, this is also the same guy who said that we should not celebrate diversity because we really should be one America and that will somehow tear us apart, which is nonsense. We're becoming a more diverse nation. I guarantee you if he goes to a Polish community or Italian, American community, he goes to a German community trying to get votes, he's going to sit here and celebrate diversity.

BALDWIN: Sounds like a good question for Rick Santorum. Let me move on. Let's talk about the other contenders here that the people who are doing really well in last poll we really have is from the "Des Moines Register."

So let's take a look at that, you know who is at the top. I know who is at the top. So I want to go through, Mr. Martin, and let's see Mitt Romney, what's your biggest bone that you have to pick about him?

MARTIN: Not really my issue. It's really a question of he has to deal with all those Tea Party folks. These are the Tea Party national leader say a lot of their people do not support him.

Coming out of Iowa, no matter what happens in Iowa, he is going to have to deal with the anti-Mitt Romney faction, which is huge. I don't think we've seen in a long time, a large number of people who don't like the perceived frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

It's unbelievable the kind of problems that he has. I think that's somehow, no matter what happens, that's going to be a huge thing here to deal with, trying to make people believe he's actually a conservative.

BALDWIN: Ron Paul?

MARTIN: Well, Ron Paul, he has some issues when it comes to Civil Rights Acts. I think he's absolutely clueless when it comes to Civil Rights Act, saying it destroyed privacy. I'm sorry, Ron, people like me couldn't vote, couldn't go to hotels, couldn't see their lunch counters.

You as a white guy, you could have. So if you don't like it, suck it up. Civil Rights Act frankly changed America for the good. His problem is that he is so far to the right when it comes to libertarian issues.

He almost turns into somebody who's on the left. So look at his foreign policy and so he has a large core following. The question is, can he grow it beyond that 20 percent, 22 percent. It has been his problem.

BALDWIN: We talked about Rick Santorum. Finally, I want to ask you about Newt Gingrich who's been hammered as he acknowledges now by these ads. He's going to have to bring it come New Hampshire. What do you think?

MARTIN: Well, it would be nice if Newt could somehow figure out how to stay focused. I mean, he is all over the map where he wants to -- it seems he's desperate to be the smartest guy and so he wants to talk about all of these off topics. Look, the economy is the number one issue. Why don't you stick to that? And so when you read these stories about his own campaign, what he's doing in terms of is he going to go here, will he have a bus tour? Is he going to signing books?

And so he's running one of the weirdest races. I'm sure Rudy Giuliani sitting out there, going I can identify what this weird race that he is running.

If he doesn't do well tonight, I think it's going to speak volumes in terms of how he has run this race, which has been the (inaudible) to a lot of people.

BALDWIN: I'm curious and final question, because you brought your iPad. You're very in tuned. You have a lot of followers on Twitter. If there one sort of common scene you're hearing from people, I mean, did they want to hear about economy? What do they want to hear?

MARTIN: Yes, actually I think what a lot of people want to hear about is the specific issues as opposed to Obama is bad, I'm good. OK, but really when it comes to the economy, how will you actually fix it as different than simply saying, cut taxes and end regulation?

As we always hear from some of the GOP candidates, folks would want to hear, no, I'm out there without a job or my children don't have one. Give me an example other than the same kind of stuff. They quite haven't heard it.

BALDWIN: OK, @rolandsmartin on Twitter.

MARTIN: Now, we give them hell all the time on Tweeter.

BALDWIN: Thank you, sir. Tweeting a lot about football last night.

MARTIN: Well, look, I mean --

BALDWIN: I mean, it was a big night.

MARTIN: I get Iowa caucus, but I think people were more concerned about the ball games.

BALDWIN: Roland Martin, thank you very much.

MARTIN: Thanks so much.

BALDWIN: And of course, Roland will be in the CNN Election Center for tonight's caucus coverage and results. So look for him then.

In the meantime, we're just talking about Newt Gingrich. He is blaming a lot of these negative ads for his dip in the polls recently. And some of those ads are coming from political action groups that raise money in support of candidates.

Coming up next, we're going to dig into the power of these negative ads. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: The Republican candidates now making their final push in caucus before the caucus opens tonight. Michele Bachmann is speaking at a "Rock the Caucus" event today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MICHELE BACHMANN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The United States is the most expensive place to do business if you're a job creator because of our tax code. I'm a tax lawyer.

I want to abolish the tax code and do away with it and put in its place a pro-growth code so you can wildly succeed with your future and with your plans. I want a future for you.

I want a hope for you. And we can do that if we open up the opportunities in the tax code, change our climate for doing business and grow the economy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: You know, the super "Political Action Committee," the Super PACs are already having a huge effect on the race for the White House discussed Newt Gingrich. CNN's Brian Todd reports they are just getting started.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): His warp speed slide from the top of the polls has been the story in Iowa and Newt Gingrich's fall is coincided with negative ads like this one.

NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I made a big mistake in the spring.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Haven't we had enough mistakes? Restore our Future, responsible for the content of this message.

TODD: "Restore Our Future," a so-called Super PAC, a Political Action Committee that supports Mitt Romney. It's spent more than $3 million on ads in Iowa, many of them blistering Gingrich. Super PACs like this can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on behalf of a candidate and all of the candidates are benefiting.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Decades ago, Gingrich goes to Washington.

TODD: Even though campaign rules say Super PACs have to be independent from the campaign and the candidates aren't allowed to communicate with them in reality.

(on camera): How close are the relationships between these super PACs like "Restore our Future" and campaigns like Romney's?

SHEILA KRUMHOLZ, CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS: Technically, Super PACs are unaffiliated with the campaigns. They're not authorized by the campaigns. However, in reality, they are much an extension of the campaigns. They're run by the former senior advisers.

TODD: Gingrich calls "Restore Our Future," a phony Super PAC saying this to Romney.

GINGRICH: That's your staff and that's your organization, those re your millionaire friends paying for it.

TODD: We called an e-mail of Romney's campaign for a response. We didn't hear back.

(on camera): Contacted by CNN, an official at "Restore Our Future," which has run out of this building in Washington wouldn't comment on Gingrich's criticism, would not discuss strategy.

But at least two people who are on the board of that Super PAC are former Romney campaign advisers.

(voice-over): As for its donors, federal disclosure records show hotel magnates J.W. and Richard Marriot each gave at least $500,000 to "Restore Our Future" this election cycle.

Hedge fund manager, John Polson was among the big donors giving a million dollars. A Polson spokesman declined to comment and we didn't hear back from Marriot possibly because of the federal holiday. The tactics used by the Super PACs are legal and analysts say they work.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The television ad attack on Newt Gingrich has had a huge effect on this race. There's no question that it enormously eroded his support here in Iowa after it surged nationally.

TODD: And analysts say because of the results from the negative ad in Iowa, this is only going to intensify. "Restore Our Future" is already using negative ads against Gingrich in South Carolina, which holds its primary on January 21st. Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: A roller coaster ride is a pretty simple way to describe the Republican landscape over the course of the last few months for the race for the White House.

Wolf Blitzer is joining me now as he just mentioned the highlight of his day, obviously talking politics with me. I would like to point out, I just went to your blog. You haven't blogged today.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST, CNN'S "THE SITUATION ROOM": Not yet, but I will as soon as I'm done with you.

BALDWIN: I see a blog from yesterday.

BLITZER: North Korea, it could be a factor in the coming weeks.

BALDWIN: OK, we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: If only people could hear what we talk about on the commercial break. I know and we match. Wolf Blitzer, ladies and gentlemen. We've actually been talking about Mrs. Blitzer in the commercial who I just found out watches you each and every caucus night.

BLITZER: But she does watch.

BALDWIN: So obviously huge coverage tonight. The A-team is here starting at 7:00 Eastern. But I want you to just do me a favor. We've seen all the rehearsals. Lift the veil for us. What happens tonight behind the scenes?

BLITZER: Well, you've got really to do a lot of studying. This is homework. You've got to really go through and learn a lot of stuff and this is just one state.

Because, you know, before we know it, next week, New Hampshire, and then South Carolina and then Florida. We're learning a lot about all of these states and stuff that's really -- I love this kind of stuff.

BALDWIN: I've heard we have what they're calling caucus cams?

BLITZER: Yes. We will have a lot of caucus cams or cameras, cams being short for camera. People understand that, OK. So, yes, we have a lot of -- we'll see democracy unfold in Iowa tonight. I think we have more caucus cams than anybody else.

BALDWIN: In fact, we have one of the largest caucus -- this one will have 6,000 people.

BLITZER: And some caucuses are really small, 50 people and this one we'll have 6,000 people. And so we're going to try to give our viewers a flavor of what's going on.

BALDWIN: And then also we'll be showing the poll numbers. But what's interesting is the entrance polls, right? I mean, this is final time that we'll be able to hear the voice of the voter.

BLITZER: It's almost like the final poll, but even more accurate that the "Des Moines Register" poll or the CNN/"Time"/ORC poll or the NBC-Marist because this will be a poll of actual people who are participating not likely caucus goers.

This is a poll of caucus-goers and starting tonight, we're going to share with our viewers, what they're saying as they go into these caucuses. Now, the big caveat is, once they go in, they don't just vote, they listen to speeches, representatives of the candidates make a last-minute appeal.

BALDWIN: The candidates could show up, right?

BLITZER: Candidates, wives, children, they can show up and people can change their mind. So one person might say I'm going to vote for Newt Gingrich, but then in the course of 10, 15, 20 minutes of hearing various appeals, change his mind or her mind and say I'll vote for Mitt Romney, whatever.

So it's a poll, it's an accurate poll, but it's not definitive by any means. But we're going to share it with our viewers and let people see what folks are saying as they go into these caucuses.

BALDWIN: How early might we know because voting begins what, 7:00 Iowa time?

BLITZER: They go on the air at 7:00 p.m. Eastern and the doors close for the caucuses at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and then they do their thing. Now, just to give you some context, Mike Huckabee won four years ago --

BALDWIN: Two hours in, right?

BLITZER: When Mike Huckabee -- the doors closed at 8:00. We projected -- when I say we, I meant me.

BALDWIN: Wolf Blitzer.

BLITZER: Yes, but I didn't just do it on my own. We had a whole team of experts who went through the numbers at 8:35 p.m. We projected Mike Huckabee would win the Iowa caucuses.

He won by a significant margin over Mitt Romney. So, you know, that's what happened. If it's closer, it may be 9:00, 9:30, 10, who knows when we can project a winner.

BALDWIN: I know a lot of this is very official. I see John King over there watching us. I know John King works the -- but I want to show the very unofficial official squiggly line as we'll call it. Let's show squiggly line because you can see according to this "Des Moines Register" poll of GOP candidates in Iowa since June, this is up and down. Explain what this is.

BLITZER: Squiggly lines. It shows a volatile race. You know who is really consistent over there?

BALDWIN: Mitt Romney.

BLITZER: Yes, it shows that the non-Mitt Romney or the anti-Mitt Romney can one day be Michele Bachmann then be Rick Perry then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich then Rick Santorum.

There's still a significant group of Republicans who are looking for someone other than Mitt Romney and all the squiggly lines underscores them.

BALDWIN: OK, is there anything you do. So you're on the air from 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

BLITZER: I'm on the air from 4:00.

BALDWIN: You take a little break back up at 7 through until -- BLITZER: We'll go through midnight and then Piers Morgan will have a special live edition at midnight. I'm going to be a guest on Piers Morgan show at midnight too so no rest for the weary.

BALDWIN: Is there anything last minute before you go on the air for so many hours? Like last minute Wolf Blitzer, check the beard --

BLITZER: Do you like the tie?

BALDWIN: I like the tie. Do we like the tie, I like the tie.

BLITZER: The hair, makeup.

BALDWIN: The beard?

BLITZER: Yes. I did trim it.

BALDWIN: Mrs. Blitzer would approve, of course. Wolf Blitzer, thank you. See you next hour.

Elections, serious business, serious, right? Not necessarily. We're going to explain next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Are you overwhelmed by all the political speech you've been hearing? Well, here's tonight's departure, Ron Paul talking, of all people, Kelly Clarkson. And get this, she's a fan of his.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Does anybody here know the name Kelly Clarkson? Because recently she endorsed me a couple weeks ago and I have to admit I didn't know a whole lot about her.

But I do know that our supporters were so enthusiastic about it, they went up and bumped up her sales of her records by 600 percent. So it is a great pleasure to be here to talk to young people because our campaign has been known to being a great appeal to the young people and a lot of times people ask me that.

I don't know the exact reason for it, but for one thing I do talk to young people and ask why you are so enthusiastic about the campaign and one of the most common answers that I get is that I defend the constitution constantly in Washington and that's very appealing to young people.

Also, young people like individuals who will stick to principles and in Washington, sometimes the two parties mesh together and there's not too many times that I am -- and it's not too infrequent that I am -- I feel obligated to vote by myself, which means that I'm sticking to that principle.

And when they see that they say that he won't go back and forth but he'll always stick to principle. But there are some other issues that are very important to young people that I find they recite to me when I talk to them.

One thing is, it seems like it's inherent in young people that we have a government and we have a president that is very cautious about going to war. There's no reason in the world that we cannot be strict constitutionalists, strong national defense and say that we should not send young people off to war.

Unless it's absolutely necessary for our national security and a declaration of war is made, fight the war and win it and get it over and come home.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: Ron Paul in West Des Moines, Iowa. You know, if you think you're seen everything when it comes to the Iowa caucuses, hang on. There's a lot more. How about candidates riding on babies, signing coffee cups? Here's CNN's Jeanne Moos with a look at some Iowa campaign moments.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If you're unexcited about the Iowa caucus, maybe these ladies enthusiasm will be contagious. The candidates have been busy signing babies and signing cups that other candidates have already signed.

The last minute tizzy even extends to posing with Kissy, the (inaudible). Newt Gingrich suggested Tizzy go to his web page, pets with Newt where owners and pets like Flint pledge their support.

But there's one pet you don't see with Newt. That would be Newt, the aquatic amphibian and Newt the candidate isn't just lowering expectations, he's submerging them.

NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whatever I do tomorrow night will be a victory because I'm still standing.

MOOS: Lately Michele Bachmann has been standing in someone else's shoes.

MICHELE BACHMANN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In the shoes and in the legacy of Ronald Reagan or you might say of Margaret Thatcher -- we are in need of an American iron lady.

MOOS: She even refers to herself that way in a last minute ad.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The consistent conservative fighter.

MOOS: America's iron lady. Not to be confused with America's ironing lady coming soon to a primary state near you. Michele Bachmann plays Maggie Thatcher played by Meryl Streep. She was an outsider who fought her way in.

BACHMANN: My favorite gun is an AR-15 because you can be so accurate with it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Gentlemen, shall we join the ladies?

MOOS: And look how far Mitt Romney has come to practically the same stage he stood on with his wife in Dubuque, Iowa four years ago.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm standing here, she's standing there, and suddenly her half of the stage collapsed.

MOOS: Flashback.

ROMNEY: Thank you, sweetie. How are you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm good.

ROMNEY: She later said, I fell on the butt in Dubuque.

MOOS: There's nothing like Iowa caucus humor to (inaudible). Jeanne moos, CNN.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I ride horses. That was nothing.

MOOS: New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)