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Romney Beats Santorum By 8 Votes; Paul Finishes Third, Gingrich Fourth; Huntsman On Iowa Caucuses: Who Cares?; Stocks Struggle; Starbucks, Denny's Raising Prices; GOP Battle Moves East and South; Battleground Shifts to New Hampshire; Source: Bachmann to Suspend Campaign; Santorum Gets Evangelical Vote
Aired January 04, 2012 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PHILLIPS: Well we don't begin the hour with fashion. We are beginning with the presidential race in a photo finish. Mitt Romney, the long-time front-runner squeaking past Rick Santorum with a mere eight votes. It's the closest finish in the history of the Iowa caucuses. And it could change the GOP race going forward.
Rick Perry says he's reassessing his bid now. And Michele Bachmann is going to hold a press conference in just about an hour. We're going to see what she has to say. We'll take that live.
But it wasn't so long ago that Santorum was barely a blip on the political radar. Today, he's the latest contender to challenge Romney.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm actually feeling terrific because as you know we were well behind several weeks ago. I don't think many people gave us a shot of beating Speaker Gingrich.
We obviously won last night although it was very, very close, obviously. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul also had big nights. We all come out of Iowa a lot stronger.
RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There's going to be a rematch and we're going to go to New Hampshire and take them on. You know, we're going to run a campaign talking about my vision for this country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Well, of course we're covering all the angles for you this morning. John King has the big picture. Dana bash and Joe Johns taking a look at the winners and losers.
Dan Lothian and David Mattingly looking ahead to political battle grounds that are now more important than ever. But John, let's start with you. Little bleary eyed this morning having left just a few hours ago.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Bleary eyed, sleep is overrated, Kyra. Once they start voting, sleep is overrated. One piece of news before I breakdown the vote last night, I just want to tell you.
Just spoke to a Republican source familiar with Congressman Michele Bachmann's plan. She's going to make an announcement later this morning. This source telling us just moments ago she, quote, "will acknowledge the reality of Iowa's vote later this morning."
I asked that source if that means Congresswoman Bachmann is dropping out of the race. The source said she deserves the chance to say this in her own words. But it's safe to say we don't see a viable way forward. The source also confirmed that it planned post Iowa trip to South Carolina today has been canceled.
So all indications are Congresswoman Bachmann will bow out of the race about an hour from now. We're seeking more information on that. Why? Well, this is why. If you look at the race right here, Congresswoman Bachmann down here at 5 percent.
Remember, Kyra, she was born in Iowa. She won the Ames Iowa straw poll. This was her one state. This was her chance to prove she was a serious Republican contender. What do we have this morning? What are we looking at? History is what we're looking at.
Mitt Romney, 30,015 votes. Rick Santorum, 30,007 votes. If you were with us at 3:00 this morning when we sorted all this out, you watched how this played out. Eight votes, eight votes look at that. How did it happen?
The purple is Rick Santorum. As you can see, the breath of his performance across Iowa is quite stunning. Let's go back in time four years, Mike Huckabee, conservative Evangelical small town rural voters in Iowa.
Four years later, Rick Santorum, pretty much the same base. Not quite by the volume though of Huckabee. Why? Because Ron Paul ran very strongly in a lot of these small counties as well in placing third.
If you notice, there's not a lot of Romney on this map. Not nearly as much as, again, as four years ago. Romney did very well out here, very well out here, ended up, this is kind of eerie, 25 percent, 30,021 votes. That's Mitt Romney four years ago.
Mitt Romney last night, 25 percent, 30,015 votes, six votes fewer than four years ago. How did Romney do it? One of the reasons he eked this one out is he performed strongest where the people are. The larger population centers in Iowa, Polk County, that's where Des Moines is.
Romney carries it with 28 percent. Santorum ran third there. There's much more than your margin of victory just right there in that one county. The county we were up late waiting for was over here, Kyra, Clinton County.
One precinct had not reported although the nice ladies of Clinton County say they did their job just fine and reported all the information to the state committee. There was a mix up in counting the votes.
We only had 98, 99 percent of the vote. Mitt Romney was still a little bit behind. When the final votes came out in this small county, 437 votes, 357 for Rick Santorum, that's final adjustment was enough to put Governor Romney over the top the closest Iowa contest in history.
As you noted just a moment ago when you talked about David and Dan, that's where we go next, the state of New Hampshire. One footnote on that, I'll let those guys discuss it in more detail when you get to them.
The reason Rick Santorum is now talking about blue collar economics, remember Mike Huckabee four years ago, went on a Christian conservative Evangelical message. This is Mike Huckabee four years ago in New Hampshire.
Not a lot of Evangelical Born-Again Christians in New Hampshire. If Rick Santorum is to follow up Iowa with a boom in New Hampshire, he has to spread it out, Kyra, and start talking about the economy.
PHILLIPS: John, before I let you go because it was such a great moment, you know, back in Clinton County. I guess, during this time things can become very repetitive. We need a little action now and then.
It was that moment in Clinton County that really I guess sort of turned the tide and woke everybody up. Let's take a look back at that and I want to ask you about it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Just to be precise, we didn't wake you up, the state chairs in Des Moines, they called you. They woke you up, is that right?
CAROLYN TALLETT, PRESIDENT, CLINTON COUNTY REPUBLICAN WOMEN (via telephone): No. I woke her up. This is Carolyn.
KING: Carolyn woke her up.
TALLETT: CNN is waiting for these votes. I was told by the party. So I came to wake up Edith who didn't answer her phone.
KING: You ladies don't have any fresh coffee brewed, do you?
TALLETT: No, but I think I'm ready for it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Quite a switch from a hanging Chad, I guess. But it was one of those moments, right, where we got a little nervous about what was going on?
KING: Right. You know, it's one of those moments and it's kind of funny. But it's also Mark Preston, our political director deserves a lot of the credit here. We knew there were precincts out. Mark was looking at the mapped and said where are these precincts?
We got a choice, wait for the state party in Iowa to sort it out or do old-fashioned foot leather journalism yourself. Mark found the number, Wolf made the call. We had that great conversation with Edith and Carolyn.
We went straight to the source of where the mix up was and we got the numbers before the state was ready to report them. That's why we're here. We do some reporting and every now and then an experience, a good rolodex and making a phone call. Good old- fashioned reporting helps --Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Well, I think now Edith and Caroline may have a sitcom coming up in the new season.
KING: Amen for that. You know, we'll be on their shows. They won't be on our shows pretty soon.
PHILLIPS: Exactly. John, thanks so much. Great stuff last night. Appreciate it.
All right, let's get the view from Iowa now. Dana Bash and Joe Johns are in Des Moines. Dana, let's go ahead and start with you. Romney may have won by the numbers. It's Santorum who's declaring victory. He's the one a lot of people are talking about this morning.
DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's no question that he deserves the ability to declare victory because he came from virtually being an asterisk to doing incredibly well, virtually tying last night. So he is very happy. His campaign is insisting that he is going to be able to go on. Listen to what he said last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANTORUM: You, you by standing up and not compromising by standing up and being bold and leading. Leading with that burden and responsibility that you have to be first, you have taken the first step of taking back this country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: So the question now is what is he really going to be able to do long term, Kyra? Rick Santorum really put all of his eggs in the Iowa basket. It paid off for him, but he doesn't have necessarily an organization in New Hampshire where Mitt Romney is very, very strong.
Obviously, he's next, as a social conservative, his next big stand will likely be in South Carolina. He will likely get help from the fact that he's not going to have the kind of competitors vying for the social conservative vote that he had in Iowa likely to see Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann not being real competitors in South Carolina.
On the Romney side of this, very interesting going forward of what we're going to see even today from him in New Hampshire, he is going to have a guest with him on the campaign trail, Kyra, and that is John McCain.
You remember the two of them had a very, very hard-fought battle in the 2008 primary. They actually became quite close and quite friendly because Mitt Romney helped John McCain in the general election back in 2008.
Even helped him in a tough primary he had for his Senate seat in Arizona. Another thing that you cannot estimate here and I know this from covering John McCain and Rick Santorum both in the Senate is personalities.
I think it is fair to say that there is no love lost between John McCain and Rick Santorum. It's fair to say also that that is a factor in John McCain jumping in and endorsing Mitt Romney right before New Hampshire.
The two of them are going to have two town halls this afternoon. Interesting to see what he says about his frenemy, Rick Santorum.
PHILLIPS: Joe, while I've got you there side by side by Dana, you know, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich finishing third and fourth last night. Let's take a listen to what Ron Paul said just moments ago and we'll talk about what's ahead in New Hampshire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think we're going to have some momentum and we're going to continue to do what we're doing. It's a live free or die state. They're very freedom oriented. That message will spread there and I'm confident we're going to do quite well.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: So Joe, can his momentum last past Iowa?
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think you can say it was a strong showing, but there were a lot of people who were expecting Ron Paul actually to pull this thing out, to win it or place a strong second and he didn't.
He placed third. So that's a problem for him, at least to some extent. On the other hand, he still has a strong organization and he still has potential. It's likely that he can stay in this race just about as long as he wants to.
It's funny you played that sound bite. It's pretty clear he wants to continue fighting too. He sort of got into a grudge match, if you will, with Newt Gingrich this morning.
Last night at his event, Newt Gingrich said Ron Paul was a dangerous candidate and so this morning Ron Paul responded essentially by saying, well, Newt Gingrich is afraid of danger calling him a chicken hog because he got deferments from the Vietnam War.
So Ron Paul apparently in a fighting mood and he's going to go out to New Hampshire and see what he can do -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right. Dana, Joe, guys, thanks so much.
You know, Mitt Romney is the only Republican who has sat at or near the top of all Iowa polls in recent months. So in many ways, he went into last night's caucuses with a simple goal, don't lose.
But did he really accomplish that? John Avlon, CNN contributor, senior columnist for "Newsweek" and "The Daily Beast." You know what? Let's get to Romney in a second.
But why don't we start with Bachmann because John King you've heard pretty much getting the word from a source that she is going to give her I'm out speech at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
JOHN AVLON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: John King reporting potentially very big news, Michele Bachmann getting out of the race. She's canceled a trip to South Carolina. That's usually pretty dispositive proof.
Like Rick Perry announced last night, he canceled his South Carolina trip going home to Texas to re-evaluate. That's code for I'm cutting my campaign off because the support is not there. I think it's a smart decision by Michele Bachmann if indeed she follows through with that.
A little surprising because she's always talked about going through, which she always seemed to have a larger sense of mission. But let me tell you, you know, if you have a conservative populist based campaign and you come in last in Iowa, with only a thousand votes more than you got in the August Ames, Iowa straw poll, you got a problem.
You have a problem that, you know, retooling isn't going to fix. So what's fascinating about that though, if Perry and Bachmann are out, where do those voters go? Where do those national supporters go?
Mitt Romney, as we've talked about, is the only guy in politics with the glass ceiling, 25 percent support and 75 percent of the party seems to want someone else. So with those two folks out, you have a narrower field. The question is will their support go to Newt? Will it go to Perry? How will it split? Will it go to Santorum? But those are really interesting questions that could dramatically impact South Carolina and Florida in particular.
So really it changes the field and it moves that 75 percent around in ways that we can't quantify yet, but will have a dramatic impact on how this race shapes up.
PHILLIPS: I'm looking ahead to New Hampshire. I mean, this represents the nation much more than --
AVLON: Very much so.
PHILLIPS: -- Iowa does, OK.
AVLON: Very much. It's for simple reason. Independents can vote. In New Hampshire's state where 42 percent of voters are registered independents, not Democrats or Republicans. Because there's an open primary, independent voters can vote in the Republican primary.
That makes the whole state primary look more like the nation in terms of its overall representativeness. It's a better gauge of what candidate can be a more competitive general election candidate than the Iowa caucus, which is high intensity, low turnout and disproportionately dominated by conservatives.
So it's a fascinating test going in. Mitt Romney, former neighboring state governor, powering lead. Jon Huntsman trying to get in there as the other sort of center right candidate.
PHILLIPS: Well, here's my question. We know that Romney pretty much, if you look at everything right overall, he's going in there pretty much with the win. However, look at the surprises that we've been seeing. Could we possibly see a surprise in New Hampshire?
AVLON: Look, last night reaffirmed something important.
PHILLIPS: Anything is possible?
AVLON: Every vote counts. Decisions and democracies are made by people who show up. You know, Mitt Romney --
PHILLIPS: So does that change things then for Romney or some of these other candidates?
AVLON: It could. Nobody should take anything for granted, especially if we have a narrower field and that base of support going to look for other candidates. Nobody should rest on their laurels.
We are at the beginning of this January gauntlet. You know, we've gone through Iowa. Next week, it's going to be New Hampshire then South Carolina then Florida. It is a punishing, intense political month. Anything is possible. Every vote counts. We were shown that again last night. That's what makes this so exciting. Politics is history in the present tense.
PHILLIPS: It's so different this year. It gives you a lot to write about and a lot of things for us to talk about. John, thanks so much.
AVLON: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: All right, well, coming up this hour, we'll also take you next toward the Republican nomination. We're going to go to New Hampshire and South Carolina since John and I were just talking about that. We're going also see how Iowa's results might impact things there. Also, we're talking again with influential Iowa radio host Simon Conway. He's going to talk about where the GOP race goes from here, the value of endorsements, and the 745 Iowans who voted for Jon Huntsman.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Jon Huntsman isn't winning many friends in Iowa. Take a listen to what he said yesterday in New Hampshire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JON HUNTSMAN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: A message to the winner of the Iowa caucus. It would be welcome to New Hampshire, nobody cares.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: And here's what he got for ignoring Iowa, 745 votes. In addition to a place in Simon Conway's dog house. The Iowa radio host with the lovely British accent can't believe Huntsman even got that many.
Simon, Huntsman dissed the state again and when we talked to you earlier after your 10th or 11th liter of coffee. You had some pretty strong words for those 745 people who voted for Huntsman.
SIMON CONWAY, IOWA TALK HOST: Absolutely. Good morning, Kyra. The Stockholm syndrome is apparently a real thing. I'll be talking to the governor of the state of Iowa today asking to remove the state citizenship from these morons who managed to vote for Jon Huntsman.
PHILLIPS: You also said, you told me yesterday, that Romney would, quote, "edge it." Did you think that edge would be wafer thin?
CONWAY: How brilliant are you for having me on and predicting that? I mean, I know that was absolutely fantastic. Yes, Romney edged it exactly as I said he would, eight votes. I don't know, I thought maybe nine or ten might have done it. But, you know, I'm satisfied with eight.
PHILLIPS: All right, well, what about your guy, Rick Perry? I know you're going to tell me you didn't endorse him, but you did tell me you liked him and he was on your show for an hour. Here's my question. Is Rick Perry finished?
CONWAY: I think there's a path for Rick Perry. Whether he chooses to take it is another matter. Conservatives will not play well in New Hampshire. I think everybody knows that.
But there is something in South Carolina that might be there for him if he chose to take that road. I don't know that he's going to. You know, there's a good conservative in the field in Rick Santorum. The question is, does he have any ground game there? We're going to find that out very shortly. PHILLIPS: Well, word now our John King telling us through a source that Michele Bachmann is going to be holding this news conference in less than an hour from now and the word is that she's going to say goodbye. What's your take?
CONWAY: I think she should. You know, I do. Unfortunately, I don't think the United States is ready for a woman leader. I thought we were more enlightened than that, but we're not ready.
It's a shame. We'll have to wait for another year, I guess, till we try that. We've had men since our foundation. It hasn't got us in a very good place. I'm certainly ready to try a woman as a president, aren't you, Kyra? Maybe you should run.
PHILLIPS: Too many skeletons in the closet, but then again --
CONWAY: Really?
PHILLIPS: You bring that up though. You know, your native U.K. was ready for a strong woman leader in the '70s, right? We're still waiting here in 2012.
CONWAY: Absolutely. Absolutely, it's not just the U.K. either.
PHILLIPS: Yes. All right, well, before we let you go, you're expecting your drive-time listeners to be, of course, contributing quite a bit today. What do you think the conversation will be about?
CONWAY: Absolutely. I think the conversation's going to be about there was all this call for conservatives to drop out of the race and coalesce around one candidate. Well, I was always let the people decide. Vote your conscience.
The people of Iowa have, indeed, delivered one conservative. His name is Rick Santorum. He's a great guy. I've spent many hours for him. He will carry that conservative flag forward in New Hampshire.
He won't do great there. He'll carry that flag forward. Then he'll get to South Carolina and he'll do fantastic.
PHILLIPS: WHO is the station. Simon Conway is the guy there in Iowa. Simon, great talking to you again this morning.
CONWAY: You too, Kyra, any time. Come on up to tropical Iowa. It's a balmy 38 degrees here right now.
PHILLIPS: You got a deal.
Well, the Republican campaigns move on to New Hampshire as you know. Newt Gingrich is actually making a stand there after a fourth place finish in Iowa. He's holding a town hall this hour. We're going to join it as soon as it happens.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Wall Street started the year with quite a bang. The Dow dropped nearly 200 points yesterday, the first trading day of 2012. But today, we're seeing some hesitation.
Alison Kosik is at the New York Stock Exchange. So Alison, what are investors thinking about?
ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, just because it's a New Year, no, no, no doesn't mean the European debt issues are gone. They're back on the front burner. In fact, today there's talk that Spain may need more rescue funding. The Spanish government is denying it.
But balancing out the bad stuff is some good stuff too. Ford and Chrysler, they're reporting double digit increases in sales in December. In fact, Ford says it had its best December since 2005. Right now, shares of Ford are up almost 2 percent.
Ford's not the only thing on the rise. That drink you buy at Starbucks, that's also going up, too. About 1 percent, which means about 10 cents a cup, now those price hikes are only happening in the northeast and sunbelt states.
So that does not include Southern Florida or California. But it does include big cities like Boston, New York, Atlanta, and Dallas. This follows price hikes that happened in the Midwest and northwest back in November because star bucks has got these cost in front of it, costs for distribution, fuel.
Those prices are going up. Prices for coffee beans, they're also rising. You know, 10 cents, Kyra, doesn't sound like a lot, but you know what happens? They sort of take an inch and they keep opening the door. It becomes a mile. That cup of coffee that used to be $3.69 is now $5.69.
PHILLIPS: That's why most of us on this morning shift bring our own coffee to work now.
KOSIK: Exactly. I'm all for that.
PHILLIPS: Yes, thanks.
All right, well, he closed past in Iowa. Now Rick Santorum is challenging Mitt Romney in Romney's own backyard.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANTORUM: Game on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: We'll take you to the game in New Hampshire to see if Santorum is gaining any ground.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) PHILLIPS: With the Iowa caucuses over the battle for the GOP presidential nomination moves east and south. First up, the nation's first primary in New Hampshire just six days away, Mitt Romney, former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, leads in the New Hampshire polls.
Then the focus shifts to South Carolina for the state's January 21st primary. We'll take you there just a moment for a look at how the campaigns are going there.
But let's go ahead and start in Manchester, New Hampshire with our Dan Lothian. Dan, you've been there a few days. What's the buzz? How will the Iowa results impact things there?
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the buzz really has all been about Mitt Romney ever since this campaign really got underway here in New Hampshire. He has maintained a very strong lead above his Republican contenders.
In fact, the most recent polling conducted last night, not of all voters here, but of those who were paying attention watching the Iowa caucuses, he remains at 47 percent. That's where the poll placed him in early December.
All of the rest on that list as well pretty much where they were in December with the exception of Senator Santorum who back in the December was at 5 percent, but now after those who were watching the caucuses saw his surge, saw his performance no doubt, he has jumped to 10 percent.
The question is can that momentum continue here in the state of New Hampshire? One potential hurdle for him is that you don't have the large number of social conservatives that you had in Iowa. You had those Evangelical Christians there.
Here in New Hampshire it's the second least religious state in the country. So that could be a factor, but Santorum supporters believe that the voters here will give him a second look and will see what the voters in Iowa saw as well.
The big question is does he have the money to really push through a strong campaign here? He obviously knows that's an issue. He sent out an e-mail to his supporters last night telling them that there's a sense of urgency here.
That they should donate to his campaign 35, 50, $75. He will need that to boost his ground operation here and also wage a war on the air.
PHILLIPS: Dan Lothian in New Hampshire for us. Dan, thanks so much.
After New Hampshire, the Republican presidential campaigns head to South Carolina, the site of the first southern primary on January 21st. Our David Mattingly is there in Aiken.
David, Michele Bachmann had a big push scheduled there, but now we're going to have this news conference coming up at about 11 a.m. Eastern time. What are you hearing?
DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, we talked to the people who are working here on the ground for the Bachmann campaign. They're a little bit in the dark right now. They are going to be watching and listening to what comes out at this press conference at 11:00 today just like the rest of us.
Of course, you heard John King reporting earlier, a source from the campaign, saying it very likely looks like it's going to be over here. And the South Carolina voters are probably wondering what's going to be next for their state if Bachmann does drop out. They're also looking at Rick Perry.
We're in Aiken, South Carolina, right now where Perry was supposed to be coming today. Those events have been canceled. He's retreated to Texas where he's going to be reassessing his campaign. So at this point South Carolina wondering who's going to be left in this field by the time their primary rolls around on the 21st -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right in just about half an hour from now we will take that news conference live when Michele Bachmann steps up to the mike. David Mattingly, thank you so much.
Also still ahead, we're going to ask our "Political Buzz" panel about the importance of being dull. It could be the key to the White House apparently. Their answers won't be dull, I'll tell you that.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Breaking news here into CNN it looks like Michele Bachmann is going to call it quits. Dana Bash working her sources along with John King. Let's get to Dana in Des Moines. What did you find out?
BASH: Kyra, literally as we were pulling up to this press conference that Michele Bachmann is having I got an e-mail from a source familiar with her decisions saying that she is -- does intend to announce that she is going to suspend her campaign.
This comes after, of course, John King reported earlier from a source also familiar with her decisions that it's very clear that she doesn't see a path forward. We know that this was a crushing finish for her last night after she came in so strongly in the Ames straw poll over the summer. To come in virtually dead last by the people who actually competed here in Iowa, it's just something that she clearly feels that she cannot overcome.
Not just because of the fact that she doesn't see a path forward in terms of the votes in New Hampshire or more specifically South Carolina. What happens when you finish this poorly is the money dries up. And the organization goes away.
And so it is very, very hard to succeed. She had a public schedule set for today, Kyra, in South Carolina that has already been canceled. And so we expect to hear from her in her own words shortly, in about 25 minutes, but our understanding is that she is no longer going to be a candidate.
PHILLIPS: Ok. Our Dana Bash, keep working the story for us. And once again, we are expecting a live news -- new conference 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time where Michele Bachmann is expected to speak. We will take that. That should happen about 25 minutes from now.
But we are getting now double sourced here from Dana Bash and John King; Michele Bachmann planning to announce that she's going to suspend her campaign.
All right, let's get to "Political Buzz", shall we? Your rapid fire look at the best political topics of the day. We've got a lot to talk about. Three questions, 30 seconds on the clock. And playing today CNN contributor Maria Cardona; Sirius XM political talk show host, Pete Dominick and CNN contributor Will Cain.
First question, guys, eight votes tipped Iowa to Romney. Here's Conan's take.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CONAN O'BRIEN, TALK SHOW HOST: Political analysts are saying that Mitt Romney is having trouble generating enthusiasm among Iowa voters. Yes. Now, ladies and gentlemen, you know you have a problem when people in Iowa find you dull.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: In this race is being dull a path to the White House -- Maria?
MARIA CARDONA, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, it certainly might be a path to the nomination, Kyra, but a path to the White House? It didn't work so well for Mike Dukakis or for John Kerry now did it? And if you have somebody like milk toast, I'm going to protect the one percent but I can't even sell my own message to my party Mitt Romney, versus a gifted communicator, somebody who wakes up everyday fighting for the middle class, for workers, for small business and someone who saved us from the second Great Depression like Barack Obama, I think he was smiling last night.
PHILLIPS: Will?
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Yes. Being dull is enough to win your way to the White House. Being dull has worked. You want to run. Have the campaigns focus on other people. It worked for Mitt Romney so far. Have the campaign be about Michele Bachmann, have it be about Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and eventually have the voters of America concentrate on Barack Obama who has the lowest approval rating since Jimmy Carter. Being dull might just win Mitt Romney the presidency by default.
PHILLIPS: Pete, I don't know why I'm asking you this because you are definitely not an expert on being dull.
PETE DOMINICK, SIRIUS XM TALK SHOW HOST: Well, thank you. I disagree with Will. It might be a path to the nomination but it's not a path to the White House. Being dull for Mitt Romney is not going to beat President Barack Obama who's a pretty exciting guy when he talks, when he does a lot of things.
I mean, Maria was right, Mitt Romney is -- 2012 what John Kerry is to 2004. We've seen what happens when Mitt Romney tries to take a risk and be hip. In 2008 he stood in front of a bunch of black kids and said who let the dogs out. A couple of days ago he made a Kim Kardashian joke, it's not exciting and it's not going to be presidential.
PHILLIPS: All right, on Monday I asked all of you for your predictions on the top three Iowa finishers. Here's a reminder on what you said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CARDONA: But I think it's going to be Romney, Paul and Santorum and probably one of those will be the nominee. And again, deadliest catch for America.
CAIN: I think conventional wisdom is probably going to hold true here. It will be Romney, Paul and Santorum and Romney wins the nomination.
DOMINICK: I think Romney will win, maybe Ron Paul will win. But Ron Paul will be done after this he's a skeleton with more skeletons in his closet. And either Santorum or Rick Perry.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Ok. Maria and Will, you were spot on.
CAIN: Who did Pete say? Who didn't Pete say?
PHILLIPS: Pete -- Pete was very politically savvy there. He even threw in the possibility of Perry. So you know he's now reassessing his campaign. Now if Perry leaves the race, who benefits most? Why don't we go there -- Will?
CAIN: Well, look, let me say this. Mitt Romney had very good news last night. He won. Yes, by eight votes, but he won Iowa. But the news since that vote tally came in has been bad for Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry suspending their campaigns does not help Mitt Romney. He needs this field fractured up. He needs to have these votes split among five alternatives.
Now and with Newt Gingrich seeming to be ready to just do whatever he can to take down Mitt Romney, I think it benefits Santorum. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry support I could see easily flowing over to Santorum and is creating a more viable alternative to Mitt Romney.
PHILLIPS: Maria?
CARDONA: I agree with that. I think that as long as the -- anybody but Romney vote is fractured, it helps Romney. As -- and as soon as the other conservatives start getting out of this field, it's going to help Santorum consolidate that anybody but Romney vote.
And look, last night Mitt Romney may have won by eight votes, but he spent seven times more per vote than Rick Santorum and he got less votes than he did four years ago.
This is not somebody who is making the sale to his own party that he is the best person to beat Barack Obama at the end of the day. That's not good news for him.
PHILLIPS: Pete?
PETE DOMINICK, SIRIUS XM HOST: If Perry drops out, who benefits the most? I would say the Perry speech writers and anybody who worked or donated to Rick Perry. Of course the people of Texas who get their excellent governor back.
But I think Rick Santorum will probably benefit a lot. I mean we saw him surge from behind. He went from bottom to top and now he's right there behind Mitt Romney and he's getting that social conservative vote which there isn't as much in New Hampshire as there was in Iowa. But without Perry and without Bachmann I think Santorum and maybe a little Gingrich. There I covered it all again.
PHILLIPS: He's so safe. All right. Here's your buzzer beater. 20 seconds each on this one, guys. The top three spots went to three very different kinds of Republicans. You know, Santorum the social conservative. Romney somewhat of a centrist, and then Ron Paul who leans libertarian. What do you think, is the GOP a house divided? Maria.
CARDONA: Absolutely, Kyra. And I wrote about this, this morning on cnn.com about how this has become a fight for the soul of the Republican Party. And that's going to be the problem with whoever wins the nomination, they're going to be way too far to the right to appeal to Independents, which by the way last night Ron Paul won.
And it's going to be very tough for them to compete in a general election.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: Yes. I hate that I only have just 20 seconds for this Kyra. But look, this is being set up as like the true hard core conservative versus the moderate. Rick Santorum versus Mitt Romney. Let's set Ron Paul aside for just one moment.
When the spotlight shines on Rick Santorum, you'll understand he's been a proponent of things like economic populism. He talks about dropping the corporate tax rate but jut for the manufacturing sector. That is not the definition of a conservative for me.
If conservatism is about gay marriage and that is the main thing, then I guess that is what this battle is. Conservative versus moderate. But I don't like how it's being described right now. PHILLIPS: Pete, bring us home.
DOMINICK: Well, first of all, Kyra, describe being Mitt Romney as a centrist. In what America does he become a centrist? Maybe personally he is, but he certainly hasn't advocated for policies.
But is the GOP a house divided? Put it this way, Kyra. If the Republicans build a house a third of it would be a church, a third of it would be condemned because it's violated regulations and the last third, Kyra, would be bought by Mitt Romney and he'd add an addition to it.
PHILLIPS: Happy day after Iowa.
CARDONA: Thank you.
Philips: All right. Appreciate it. Newt Gingrich actually holding a town hall right now in Concord.
Let's go ahead and listen in.
(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Radical statement 1776. Though we are endowed by our creator. This is the heart of the American system. It means the following, every person in here, each one of you, has been endowed by God. Now that means power comes from God to you personally. You're personally sovereign. How sovereign are you? The rights are unalienable. That is, no judge, no bureaucrat, no politician can take away your rights.
It's interesting in the second amendment people often ask me about the right to bear arms. The second amendment doesn't give you the right to bear arms. Important to read it. The second amendment says, the right to bear arms shall not be abridged. Because the right to bear arms was given to you by God. And is unalienable.
It's a very, very fundamental question which nobody in our modern elites, wants to deal with. Which is why you end up with efforts to pass a small arms treaty at the U.N. and you end up with a worldwide effort by elites to disarm everybody.
The founding fathers understood a simple proposition, and I wear this pin, it's George Washington's Command Flag. This flew at Valley Forge in front of his command post. And I wear it as a reminder. The person who presided over the constitutional convention understood what commander-in-chief meant.
When they wrote the term commander-in-chief in the constitution, they had a very clear idea because he spent eight years in the field as the commander-in-chief leading the army. They knew something profound about the right to bear arms.
At the other concord in Massachusetts when the British came to Concord and Lexington to confiscate the weapons. The British knew how to defeat peasants. It was brilliantly captured in a wonderful book called "Paul Revere's ride. And they marched out very confident because in Ireland, in Scotland, in Wales, England, they put down peasant rebellions with ease.
They suddenly at Lexington and Concord discovered armed militia who defeated them.
(END LIVE SPEECH)
PHILLIPS: And live events have already begun in New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich there in Concord. We will follow that for you. Continue to check in on all the candidates as they head to New Hampshire and start addressing voters.
We'll take a quick break. More from the CNN NEWSROOM.
Right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Well, one of the key stories emerging from the Iowa caucuses is the strength of the Evangelical vote and it broke for Rick Santorum. Earlier I had a chance to talk with Chief Political correspondent for CBN, David Brody. He says, hey, Evangelicals just voted their faith.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID BRODY, CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, CBN: Yes, I mean look, not only did he spend time in the trenches, but he has street cred with Evangelicals. I mean this is a guy that has been playing in the culture wars for a couple of decades now and he also has a resume. You know a two-time United States Senator.
And I think what we saw Kyra here is the reason Evangelicals broke for Santorum, they broke hard for him, they broke late for him is because they looked at Michele Bachmann and said, you know what; we don't really see a president when they look at her and Rick Perry, oops, a couple too many oops moments for Rick Perry and he was just not ready for primetime in presidential politics.
And here comes Rick Santorum who had no oops moments and there wasn't much fire fired at him. And so here, Rick Santorum doing very well with the Evangelicals.
PHILLIPS: All right, you mention it's the authenticity, no measurable mistakes and he captured a portion of what you call the Teavangelicals. Leave it to you to name a new party.
BRODY: Yes, you know, leave to me to come out with a spiffy phrase there Kyra. Look, I -- I -- the Teavangelicals. What are they? These are Evangelicals who very much support the Tea Party and its agenda. It's really that simple. And there's a big crossover in this country. And what we saw, as you saw in that previous segment with some of these Evangelical numbers, Rick Santorum did very well with that crowd and yes Ron Paul did very well with that crowd, too. Tea Party Ron Paul, we know all about that. But he's also appealing to Evangelicals for a myriad of different reasons which is probably another segment on your show. But the point simply is, is that these two have a very distinct reason, a couple of different reasons for why teavangelicals like what they are hearing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: We know how Iowans voted but do you know why? Turns out electability topped the list for caucus goers. Christine Romans. Got to break it down for us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Drama from the Iowa caucuses. Mitt Romney wins by a mere eight votes. Rick Santorum ignites a new enthusiasm and surges to a very close second place. Let's talk more about how Iowans voted and why. A resident Iowan -- Christine Romans, here to break it down once again for us. So Christine, what do you think was the most important thing?
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, It was about electability. It was about who voters thought could beat Barack Obama. Who had the right mix to lead the country. Quite frankly -- we have these entrance poll we'll talk to people on the way in from 20 questions. I have narrowed them down for you.
The most important candidate quality, the right experience, 16 percent said (INAUDIBLE) experienced some strong moral character. That was about a quarter of voters, as was true conservative. And that they can defeat Barack Obama.
So who filled the bill for those? Look at that. Mitt Romney is the one that Iowa voters thought could defeat Barack Obama. The best experience for a president, that one was interesting, too. Working in business was the number one thing here. That also was Mitt Romney.
So I want to take both of these for you and take them over to the other wall, Kyra, so we can examine them a little bit more. Look at that. Gingrich was the second one that voters thought could defeat Barack Obama. Rick Santorum came in at 13 percent. Ron Paul, Perry, Bachmann. Huntsman didn't even -- look at that. Huntsman didn't even rate in terms of being able to defeat the president. Then working in business.
Santorum also ranked up here, which is sort of interesting because he is the guy who also for being so much in politics, but Ron Paul, 18 percent. Perry 11 percent. Gingrich drops down to 8 percent. Bachmann, 6 percent. And none for Huntsman. He's a big business person who understands the global economy as well but not somebody who ranks there. So that gives you kind of a sense of electability seems to be the number one thing here quite frankly, Kyra. These voters went in there sort of undecided at the very end. Decided in the end, look this is the guy we think can beat the President. I know you were up all night, so was your entire family in Iowa. You were all watching how it was breaking down. Christine, thanks so much.
ROMANS: You're welcome.
PHILLIPS: Well right, we're just a few minutes away from a Michele Bachmann news conference. We told you that she'll probably announce that she's suspending her presidential campaign. Stay tuned for that. That is about five minutes away. We'll be back after a quick break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: We are just about to hit the top of the hour.
Let's flash forward to events that are happening today. Mississippi governor Hailey Barbour addressing state lawmakers for the last time at noon today. The two-term governor leaving office next week. And on Barbour's to do list launching a speaking tour.
Also making his first major speech of 2012. President Obama will speak at a high school in Shaker Heights, Ohio, at 1:15. His focus, the state of the economy.
And then later this afternoon a private wake will be held in New York for three Connecticut Children killed in a Christmas morning house fire. Funeral service is scheduled tomorrow.
That does it for us. Boy has it been a wild ride starting from yesterday all the way into this morning. You know what, it doesn't stop here. Suzanne Malveaux is going to pick it up.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: You and I were up throughout the night, early in the morning. I saw you early in the makeup room. It was riveting.
PHILLIPS: This is what we love. These surprises are fantastic. From Clinton county where the two women there were --
(CROSSTALK)
MALVEAUX: Waking each other up. It was pretty incredible.
PHILLIPS: Yes all the way to the surprise of Santorum. It's going to be an interesting year, no doubt.
MALVEAUX: Yes. It's hard to come close to what happened last night. But we'll see.
PHILLIPS: Yes. Anything's possible as we well know now.
MALVEAUX: Thanks Kyra.
PHILLIPS: You bet.
