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Iowa Caucuses A Virtual Tie?; Newt Gingrich Closes the Gap; Costa Rescue Efforts Resume on Ship, Obama Blocks Oil Pipeline Expansion; Perry to Quit GOP Race; Perry Dropping Out of GOP Race; Rick Santorum Wins Iowa
Aired January 19, 2012 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Soledad. Hey, good to see you.
Good morning, everybody. We've got lots of politics this morning. But first, this just got into us. Good news on the jobs front. Felecia Taylor, let's get straight to her at the New York Stock Exchange.
It's the lowest level in, what, four years?
FELICIA TAYLOR, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. That's the great news. I mean this is really the kind of numbers that we -- we were hoping to see and hopefully will continue. So new jobless claims plunged to 352,000 last week. That's a huge drop. It's down by 50,000. Obviously this demonstrates that there are fewer layoffs. However, jobless claims can be a little volatile this time of year.
For example, we saw claims jump a few weeks ago because of the temporary holiday workers that were laid off. And also the prior week was revised a little bit higher, not much. I mean just by about 3,000. But it did go above 400,000. We need to stay below 400,000 in order to associate that with actual job creation.
So today's report is good news. We just need to see it continue in the long term.
PHILLIPS: All right. Terrific. Felicia, thanks so much.
All right, let's get to politics now. We begin in Iowa. Yes, Iowa. Just when you thought it was a done deal. Well, the "Des Moines Register" is reporting that the Iowa caucuses were a virtual tie, that Rick Santorum actually ended up with a 34-vote advantage and that Romney did not win. So now we're being told that in about 15 minutes we're going to get the certified results from that nail-biting caucus night.
Shannon Travis is in Des Moines for us. So, Shannon, walk us through what apparently happened. Some results are missing, some just aren't right. What's the deal?
SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN POLITICAL PRODUCER: Well, here's basically what happened. You know that on caucus night, Kyra, they come out -- they put out the unofficial numbers, right? It's a certification process that has to go through the 99 counties here in Iowa. And all of those counties, they're different precincts, over 1770 precincts. All of the precincts have to turn in what's called a Form E.
It's basically saying, you know what, these are the numbers that we received on caucus night for each one of the candidates. The problem is, according to the "Des Moines Register," there are eight precincts where there were no Form E's. None of these certification forms even existed. So there leaves this big asterisk over who actually won.
Now as you just mentioned, Santorum and the successive counting in terms of certifying the vote went up by 34 votes. You know that on caucus night Mitt Romney won by eight by the unofficial count. But again, it's these eight precincts that have these missing Form E's that leave this huge question mark over who actually won here.
I'm standing outside the Iowa Republican headquarters where in just a few moments I'll be able to question the chairman, Matt Strawn, about what happened, how did it happen, and whether this will ever be resolved. But according to the paper, it seems like this will always be the case in terms of it being a question mark -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right. As soon as you get that interview, Shannon, let us know because we want to get that side of the story. And we'll check in on what the Romney camp and the Santorum camp are saying to that and to this. Thanks so much, Shannon.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is closing the gap in South Carolina two days before a do-or-die Republican primary there. A new NBC News/Marist poll out this morning shows that Gingrich is surging, cutting deep into Mitt Romney's lead.
Here's Gingrich sounding pretty confident in "THE SITUATION ROOM."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think some of Romney's folks start thinking about who could actually debate Barack Obama and win. I think he'll keep losing a little bit of ground. So I think by Saturday we'll be ahead and depending on how many conservatives come home, we could be ahead by a pretty comfortable margin.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Better believe the pressure is heading into tonight's debate. Right here on CNN, political editor Paul Steinhauser live in Charleston.
So, Paul, what do you think of Gingrich's late momentum?
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Yes, look at this, Kyra. This poll you just mentioned, this NBC/Marist poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday. So both before and after that debate Monday where a lot of the pundits say, you know what, Newt Gingrich had a great performance and Mitt Romney looked a little defensive especially over the issue of his taxes.
All right. Let's break down that poll. Take a look at this. Monday, Monday only in that NBC/Marist poll, there's Romney at 37 percent, Gingrich at 22 percent, a 15-point lead for Romney. But go to Tuesday. This is just the Tuesday results from that poll. Look at that. That Romney advantage down to just five points.
Also another new poll out just in the last few hours as well from "Politico." Let's go to that one as well, Kyra. This one was conducted Tuesday and yesterday. So entirely after Monday night's debate. And there's Romney at the top, still in the lead but only seven points over Gingrich.
Remember this all was first recognized by our poll, our CNN/TIME/ORC poll, back just, what, not even 24 hours ago with Romney's lead going from 19 points down to 10. Things are definitely tightening up here. The Romney camp starting to step up attacks on Gingrich yesterday on the campaign trail.
Boy, Kyra, it is getting really interesting here. Two days to go until that primary.
PHILLIPS: I'll tell you what, in tonight's debate. We've got to pump that up. We could see that really make an impact here.
STEINHAUSER: No doubt. Listen, these debates all cycle long have had such a big impact. The one on Monday night seems to be so. So tonight, what, about 12 hours from now, 11 hours from now, right behind me there at the North Charleston Coliseum. So much on the line. Remember this is the last showdown for all five of these major Republican presidential candidates before that crucial, crucial primary right here in South Carolina on Saturday.
This is definitely going to be must-see TV -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: OK. Paul Steinhauser in Charleston. Paul, thanks.
And tonight just two days before the South Carolina primary election, the GOP contenders debate the issues. The "SOUTHERN REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE" on CNN tonight 8:00 Eastern.
Well, this morning we received some pretty startling newt insights into that cruise ship tragedy off the coast of Italy. It comes from this new video shot by rescue crews from the National Fire Brigade. For the first time we're actually seeing how the massive rocky reef split the hull and doomed that voyage.
This new evidence also suggests that this was not the first time that the same ship came dangerously close to the shoreline. In fact, a shipping industry newspaper is reporting that they had an investigation showing that the Costa Concordia may have avoided earlier tragedy by sheer luck.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ADAM SMALLMAN, EDITOR IN CHIEF, LLOYDSLIST.COM: It didn't go just as close, it actually sailed closer. And on the basis of the data that we've looked at, which is exclusive analysis from shore based systems called AIS, we're estimating that, you know, it got that close, 230 meters at one point, the closest point on that voyage.
It was actually closer than this voyage up until the last moment when it came in. So our estimate is that it must have come within sniffing distance of the rock -- the underwater rock that it hit on this voyage way back in August.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Wow. Dan Rivers is on Giglio Island where rescue crews have resumed work.
Dan, any idea how much longer those operations will continue?
DAN RIVERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think they're kind of looking for the end of the week here, Kyra. We're told there are two divers currently on board that are continuing their search. We're told they're going to start using explosives again to blast their way into sections of the ship that they can't get access to.
But, yes, it's tough going. We've also been hearing some really heart-rendering stories from the families of those who are missing. From the family of a little girl, 5 years old, Dayana Arlotti, who hasn't been seen since this accident. She was on board with her father, William Arlotti. The mother, who's now remarried, Suzy Albertini, has been speaking, just pleading with people not to give up looking for their little girl.
It's a really terrible story. She, the mother, is due to come to the island this evening, we understand, to get more information about the search for her daughter. But this little girl is just one of, what, 23 people we think are still missing in this tragedy. Eleven are confirmed dead.
PHILLIPS: Dan Rivers from Giglio there. We will follow the operations with you throughout the morning.
Back here the Obama administration is facing blistering criticism now for its decision on a controversial oil pipeline.
Here's the backstory. The White House denied a permit to expand the existing Keystone Pipeline. It would have carried crude oil from the tar sands in Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast -- on the Gulf Coast, rather.
Well, President Obama says that Congress gave him only 60 days to make the decision and that just wasn't enough time to assess the environmental risks. So now Republicans say the decision will cost thousands of jobs and make the U.S. more dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
President Obama's decision on the pipeline is causing worldwide debate now. Zain Verjee in London for us. So what are you hearing, Zain?
ZAIN VERJEE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Kyra.
Well, actually, let's start in the United States first. I thought this headline was pretty interesting so I just wanted to share that with you. This is from "The Washington Post." Its headline says, "A kink in the pipeline." It goes on to say this, "Environmentalists should fight for policies that might actually do substantial good instead of tilting against Keystone XL and President Obama should have the courage to say so."
There's also a big story in the Canadian papers, obviously, the "National Post" in Canada says, "Delayed, not dead." "This is political theater, pure and simple. It's intended solely to solidify the green vote behind Obama in November's presidential election and for the general electorate to make it appear as if Mr. Obama's Republican opponents are truly to blame for the thousands of jobs that will not be created."
And a little more global perspective from the "Wall Street Journal" in Asia. Their edition has this headline. "A tale of two pipelines." It says, "If the U.S. shuns Alberta oil, then Canada needs to reach export markets in Asia. Whoever thought the day would come when Ottawa would be more pro-growth than the U.S. government?" -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Zain Verjee out of London. Zain, thanks.
Twelve families in New York desperately seeking answers after their teenagers suddenly start twitching and stuttering.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She does not have time for, I feel, or guesswork, or anything like that. She's deteriorating.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: The mystery illness and possible cause next.
And fixing the Washington Monument. A private citizen steps up and cuts the government a $7.5 million check.
Let's get to Paul Steinhauser in Charleston.
I understand you've got some breaking news for us, Paul?
STEINHAUSER: I do have some breaking news from the campaign trail right here in South Carolina, Kyra. We're learning two sources telling our CNN's Peter Hamby, our political reporter, that Rick Perry, the Texas governor, he's telling supporters that he will drop his bid for the Republican presidential nomination today.
Kyra, again, our Peter Hamby, our political reporter doing some nice work here. Two sources telling us that that's what Perry is telling his supporters.
Now we all remember, Rick Perry, the Texas governor, he jumped into the race, Kyra, back in August. And he quickly became the frontrunner but he had stumbles in a lot of the debates this fall. His numbers have dropped. He's right now just in the single digits right here in South Carolina, another southern state for him, only in the single digits in the last three polls we've seen over the last 24 hours here, Kyra.
So it looks like we may only have four people on that stage tonight right behind me at the coliseum here in North Charleston. Our CNN Southern Republican debate. But again, the headline here, two sources telling our CNN's Peter Hamby that Rick Perry will announce he's dropping out of the race today.
PHILLIPS: OK. It's going to be interesting to see how that debate goes now minus Rick Perry. And also all of those voters in support of Rick Perry. Where are those votes going to go? You know the candidates will be vying for those. We'll be talking a lot more about the breaking news.
Great job to our Peter Hamby.
Paul, thanks so much.
We'll take a quick break. More from the CNN NEWSROOM straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: And as you just heard, our Paul Steinhauser reporting live from Charleston. Our Peter Hamby working his sources. Two sources now confirming to CNN that Rick Perry is expected to drop out of the presidential campaign today.
As you know, CNN is going to be holding a debate among the GOP candidates this evening. That means four people taking the stage if, indeed, Rick Perry comes forward today and announces he is suspending his campaign.
Our Peter Hamby breaking that story just moments ago through our Paul Steinhauser there in Charleston, that two sources confirming to him, Rick Perry will be dropping out of his presidential run.
All right. Let's check some other stories happening cross- country right now.
At least three people feared missing and dead in Oregon. Their car went into deep waters and was swept in a canal. Melting snow and heavy rains have triggered severe flooding in that state.
And more weather woes for the Northwest as well. Temps dropping after a record breaking snow fall in Seattle. That means roads will remain dangerous there.
And a philanthropist is donating $7.5 million to help fix the Washington Monument. Billionaire David Rubinstein is splitting the overall repair cost with the government. The monument has been closed since it was damaged in last summer's earthquake.
Stuttering, twitching, sudden outbursts -- it's a medical mystery in upstate New York. Twelve girls all from the same high school suffering the same symptoms. Our Jason Carroll is on the story.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very heart breaking to me to be honest. Knowing that right now I can't do what I love.
JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Farah Sanchez (ph) was a cheerleader, an honor role student and as a senior at Leroy Junior High School in Upstate New York, well on her way to planning her future. When she woke up from a nap last October, everything changed.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I couldn't stop stuttering.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The stuttering took over, you know, really contorting on the left side of --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: All right. We apologize. We're going to break out of Jason's piece there for just a second. We'll try to bring that back to you.
We just reported moments ago through our Peter Hamby confirming through two sources, Rick Perry expected to announce today that he's dropping out of his presidential run.
Gloria Borger on the phone with us now.
Gloria, what do you know? Have you been able to talk to your sources as well? Let's talk about the impact of this.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST (via telephone): Well, I just made one phone call to a source in another campaign and no one is surprised here in the sense that Perry did not do as well as he had anticipated in Iowa, and certainly not in New Hampshire. And the feeling was that he was staking it all here, where I am, in Charleston, South Carolina, in this state because he thought that he could make a pitch to those evangelical and conservative voters that he's the one who shares their values.
And in fact, what we've seen in our polling and everyone's polling is that evangelical voters have split. The pastors last weekend endorsed Rick Santorum. They're giving Mitt Romney another look as are conservatives. And that electability seems to be a very, very important issue here. Even as you see Newt Gingrich rise in the polls.
When you talk to voters here, they say kind of I'm torn. I'm having a gut-check moment because I need to decide who am I going to vote for? Somebody who really shares all my values or somebody who can beat President Obama?
I think that Rick Perry, particularly given his mediocre debate performances, and I would say in the last debate, by the way, Kyra, ironically I think he had his best performance, that people never forgave him for his first two or three bad debate performances. In a way, the debates were the first primaries and he lost them.
PHILLIPS: Gloria, I'm told we've got Wolf on the line as well. Also Peter Hamby.
Peter Hamby actually broke this story for us. Do we have him yet? Via the -- not yet? OK. Peter apparently is calling in. We'll talk to him.
Gloria, please stay with me.
Wolf Blitzer on the line as well.
Wolf, what's your take on this? Where will Rick Perry supporters go, which camp?
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR (via telephone): I think a lot of them will go to Newt Gingrich. A lot of them will go to Rick Santorum, probably not that many will go to Mitt Romney. He might get some of them, but I suspect that in South Carolina where I am right now, where Gloria is, where Peter Hamby is, this will probably be very, very good news for Newt Gingrich because over the last few days, especially since Monday night's debate, he's been searching. He's been really narrowing the gap.
Romney had in our poll about a week or ten days ago a 19 point lead here in South Carolina, the most recent poll a 10 point lead. But if you just look at the last day or two after the Monday night debate, it was almost even, if you will.
So, Gingrich has been surging. Romney's been hurting a little bit since the debate. So, I suspect that a lot of the evangelical Christian conservative Tea Party types that would have liked to vote for Rick Perry, it wouldn't have been a huge number to begin with in the recent polls, he's been getting 4 percent or 5 percent or something like that in South Carolina. If it's close, it could be significant. So, I think it's probably going to help Newt Gingrich and to a second degree Rick Santorum.
It's going to hurt -- it's going narrow the field as far as Mitt Romney is concerned.
PHILLIPS: And Newt was talking to you in THE SITUATION ROOM sounding pretty darn confident. Now, you're saying this is probably going to help him.
Peter Hamby on the line with us now. He broke this story.
Peter, this has been quite a good week for you. You broke the news that Jon Huntsman was out. Now you're breaking the news that Rick Perry is dropping out of the race. Tell us how you worked the information when you felt confident you knew this, indeed, was gold information?
PETER HAMBY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (via telephone): Yes. Governor Perry -- and thanks for the shout-out, Kyra -- but Governor Perry told a handful of top supporters and they began sort of making phone calls around South Carolina today, which is actually how I heard from someone here in South Carolina. There were some staff members that I talked to who are not yet aware that this was happening, Kyra. So, it's sort of kind of bubbling up around the margins.
What I heard was that they're expecting to do a press conference at some point today, possibly as early as this morning, to announce the results. I do not know if he has plans to endorse another candidate so we have to wait and see on that. We're still making phone calls and trying to figure out what Rick Perry's next steps are. But he is here in South Carolina, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Peter, any idea what time this could happen? Peter, are you still with me?
HAMBY: Can you say that again, Kyra? I can't hear you very well.
PHILLIPS: No problem. By the way, where are you right now, Peter? Where are you calling in from?
HAMBY: I'm in Charleston.
PHILLIPS: You're in Charleston. Gotcha. OK.
Do you have any idea, Peter, when he might do this, when he might step to the mic and announce this?
HAMBY: What I heard was possibly as early as this morning, but there might be a press conference around 11:00 a.m. I'm still trying to nail down details on that. But it still seems kind of fluid right now.
The Perry campaign and his supporters are still making phone calls and letting people know before they officially put this news out there -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Look, you broke this story, and I know you just mentioned to me you're not quite sure if he's going to come out and endorse somebody when he does make this announcement. But just through what your sources have been telling you, is your gut leaning one way or another?
HAMBY: It's hard to say. There is talk, believe it or not, that Rick Perry could run for president again. Obviously, he planned out spectacularly in this race. So, does he want to either preserve some political capital with the party establishment that he might need down the road? That would send you in the direction of endorsing Governor Romney.
Or does he want to maintain his Washington insurgent outsider status, and that might, you know, lend him to endorse another candidate. But he has been aggressive in saying that he is the only candidate in the race who's not a D.C. insider. It's very tough for him to turn around and endorse somebody like newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
His campaign sent out a mail piece yesterday that's trashing Gingrich and Santorum both saying they're part of the problem in Washington, they don't get it. And, of course, Rick Perry's been very tough on Governor Romney throughout this campaign, sort of bundled him in with the Wall Street elites that are in cahoots with Washington. So, it's tough for him to go that way as well, Kyra.
You know, a lot of people have made comparisons to Fred Thompson. You know, he kind of didn't do well in Iowa and went straight to South Carolina and then sort of quietly dropped out. He didn't really endorse anybody for a few days. He was with John McCain eventually.
But we could also see Rick Perry step off the sidelines and not endorse anybody. It's not really in keeping with his brand, Kyra, any of these candidates.
PHILLIPS: OK. And I'm just getting word, too, as you know our lead story today, do me a favor -- stay with me, Peter.
Wolf, stay with me.
Gloria, if you're still there, stay with me.
You know, we reported the "Des Moines Register" going back -- say that again. Right. The beginning of the hour, we told you about the "Des Moines Register" reporting that in Iowa, actually, it was a virtual tie. We had been talking so much about the Iowa caucuses, the fact that Rick Santorum ran a tight second there to Mitt Romney by eight votes. Now, the "Des Moines Register" reporting it was a tie.
Now, we're getting word through the certified results that Rick Santorum actually won the Iowa caucus.
As this as coming through at the same time our Peter Hamby breaking the story that Rick Perry is going to drop out of the race today.
Wolf, why don't I take this to you? Rick Santorum actually winning the Iowa caucus.
Gloria, I'll get you to weigh in, too.
Wolf, why don't we start with you?
BLITZER: Well, it's great news for Rick Santorum. It's a little late. If he would have come out 20 or 30 or 40 votes ahead right after Iowa going into New Hampshire, it probably would have given him some momentum. Certainly the fact that Mitt Romney was able to say, I won Iowa, I won New Hampshire, nobody, no non-incumbent Republican has ever done that, that was a major talking point for Mitt Romney.
If Santorum would have been able to say I won Iowa, he might have done better in New Hampshire, maybe even here in South Carolina.
Having said all of that, I think it's going to encourage Rick Santorum to fight on, especially now that Peter Hamby is reporting for us here at CNN that Rick Perry is about to drop out. I'm sure that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are really hoping that whatever support Rick Perry had here in South Carolina, as I said earlier, in the moderate single digits, would go to them, at least some of it to them.
So, it's shaking things up. You know, there are four candidates left, Kyra. There were eight. At one point there were 10, now there are four.
And, you know, I assume that Rick Perry would drop out after Saturday, but he pulled a Jon Huntsman and decided looking at all these poll numbers, even the moderate to low single digits, now is the time to get out and do it on his terms as opposed to being humiliated Saturday night when the results come in and he would come in dead last.
So, you know, it's going to shake things up a little bit and it will liven up this contest, not only for South Carolina, but January 31st, there's a primary in Florida as you know. So, things are moving.
PHILLIPS: Let's liven it up even more. We've got Candy Crowley on the line. Two breaking stories, Candy, right now. You're seeing it all happen here, unfolding here.
Where do you want to start? Do you want to start with Rick Santorum winning Iowa or do you want to talk about Rick Perry jumping out of the race?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Well, I'm always for the latest news first. So, you know, Rick Perry getting out of the race now, I don't think you can look at this without thinking that this is what, first of all, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have been pushing all along is for other folks to get out of the race because they've been dividing up this conservative bloc of the party. They've been unable to overtake Mitt Romney at this point.
So I think it is certainly making South Carolina a lot more interesting. It was already pretty interesting.
PHILLIPS: Roland Martin and Will Cain now I understand jumping in on this conversation.
Are you guys together? They are together. Perfect. Oh, boy.
Yes, this ought to get interesting. OK. Roland, weigh in -- wherever you want to start. Candy obviously with the news of the hour, Rick Perry jumping out.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, first of all, I think of Keith Jackson. Whoa, Nellie! I mean, this is first of all --
PHILLIPS: Hang a star on that one.
MARTIN: Here you have a debate tonight, the election on Saturday. I think at the end of the day, Rick Perry tried to put everything on South Carolina after a horrible finish in Iowa. Clearly would get embarrassed.
And so, it makes sense from an evangelical standpoint, also for those evangelicals to meet in Texas and say we're going to back Santorum and not back him, it makes sense to get out of the race, allow the voters here to be able to choose between Gingrich and Santorum to go against Romney, otherwise, you're splitting the vote. You still have some credibility in terms of being able to impact the election.
Smart, but he should have got out after Iowa horrible finish.
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, it's not that he didn't try to, though, Kyra. He tried to get out after Iowa.
PHILLIPS: Where do you think the Rick Perry votes are going to go, Will?
CAIN: That's a tough call. First let me say this, Kyra -- why would Rick Perry get out right now? Because Rick Perry is a political animal. He has been a career politician.
Whether or not he stays in politics or he wants to influence politics in the future, getting out now helps that. Getting last place in South Carolina hurts you. Roland said this a minute ago. I agree.
Participating in this debate tonight doesn't look like it's actually going to help him based upon past experience. So, getting out now, he's able to remain a player.
You ask where his votes are going to go? That's hard to say, Kyra, because you're also asking like who would he endorse? As a career political animal, he should endorse Romney. You back winners. But he's got this kind of grassroots feel to him and he doesn't want to alienate that side.
So, I don't know where those votes would go and I don't know who would endorse.
MARTIN: He doesn't have to endorse, Kyra. Here's why. You look at the latest poll. You've seen the lead shrink between Romney and Gingrich. By him simply getting out, if Gingrich is able to win on Saturday, one of the narratives will be Rick Perry dropping out helped Gingrich beat Romney. Then Perry can just simply sit back, basking that. Later give an endorsement and see what happens in Florida.
And so, bottom line, he realized he was not going to do well here. And you do not want to be embarrassed. You need to have some kind of sway when it comes to who could possibly win. And if this goes to Texas, then his endorsement is even more critical if it goes down that particular path all the way to March.
PHILLIPS: OK. Our Candy Crowley, of course, said South Carolina was already getting interesting. Now, it's getting more interesting. This is what we love, right? Our big debate is tonight.
Wolf Blitzer, how do you think the news that is braking this morning is going to impact our big debate tonight?
BLITZER: Rick Perry is obviously not going to be in the debate, so there will be four people instead of five people. My own sense is that it's going to be lively.
Gingrich is really angry at Romney. Romney is fighting now. He sees there's a real contest in South Carolina. Rick Santorum wants to weigh in. Ron Paul, you know, he's always outspoken.
So, It's going to be a lively debate. I expect fireworks tonight here in Charleston.
PHILLIPS: What do you think, Candy? Fireworks and where are those fireworks going to come from?
CROWLEY: Listen, the fireworks always get louder and bigger the closer you get to Election Day. So, absolutely.
Listen, I think there's a lot of pressure tonight on Mitt Romney because it was sort of widely perceived that the last debate was not his best. So he needs to be on his game, particularly when we see these polls moving toward Newt Gingrich after a debate earlier this week. I mean, this is Newt Gingrich's strength. It's where he has pulled from and what has propelled him throughout most of this primary season. It has been his debate performances.
So, I think there was a lot of pressure on Mitt Romney to put in a, quote, "presidential" kind of performance, as well as a really strong performance because he didn't get that great a grade last time. It matters now. This is the last one before the South Carolina primary.
PHILLIPS: Paul Steinhauser, I'm hearing you might know when Rick Perry's announcement is going to happen, is that right?
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Yes. The Perry campaign, which is still around for now, just put out a press release moments ago while you were talking to Wolf, Candy, and Roland. It's going to be at 11:00 Eastern. That's about 90 minutes from now, Kyra.
Only a few miles from right here. This is the debate site behind us here in Charleston, just a few miles from here. Steve Rusk (ph), our political coverage manager, he's making the moves. We're going to get cameras there. We'll have this live.
And I think all of the players you've been talking will join us live at 11:00 to talk about this around the news conference, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right. Once again, if you're just tuning in, here's the latest news.
Paul telling us 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time right here on CNN, we are going to hear Rick Perry step up to the mic and announce that he is stepping out of the GOP race.
Candy Crowley, you mentioned as we are gearing up for a big debate tonight, eight people to four people. Rick Perry is going to be out, didn't do so well in the debates. That definitely made an impact on him.
You're saying the pressure is going to be on Romney tonight. You say he needs to be on his game. What exactly does he need to be working on today to get ready for tonight?
CROWLEY: Look, I think it's pretty clear that his opponents will come after him on taxes, on how much he paid, on, you know, again, why he hasn't released his tax returns now. They are, you know, portraying him as one of these rich people out of contact with the normal voter, and I think they're going to go after him, first of all, on economic things, and by that I mean, you know, sort of his life, his tax returns.
You know, look, this is South Carolina, so you will also see and you have seen the subtext here has also been some of the social issues. Newt Gingrich bringing up, again, Mitt Romney's, quote, "flip flop" on abortion which took place many years ago but, nonetheless, did take place.
So, I think you'll see them go at him any way they can chip away at that lead. And he needs to be forceful without looking as though they've gotten to him. You know, you remember that one debate where it seemed like Rick Perry got under his skin. That's not good.
One of his great strengths, one of Romney's great strengths is people look at him and they say, gee, he's acting presidential. He seems presidential. He gives that kind of sort of calm I've got this under control.
But he also needs to have some pretty darn good answers to some of these things that are going to come at him, both on social issues as well as on fiscal issues.
PHILLIPS: Rick Perry speaking to our John King last night as this news this morning is coming forward that he's going to be dumping out of the GOP race. Let's take a listen to what Perry had to say last night and discuss.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. RICK PERRY (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The idea that we're going to do anything else other than try to impact this election, that's why we got in it. We didn't get in it because it was our purpose in life to be the president of the United States. We did it because it was our purpose to serve this country. And that's what we've been called for, and that's what we're going to continue doing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: OK. Playing Monday morning quarterback, got in the race to impact the election, not necessarily win the presidency -- Wolf.
Did we lose our Wolf?
Candy, are you still with me?
CROWLEY: I surely am.
PHILLIPS: OK. Let's go to you, Candy Crowley. I guess if you knowing the news now, listening to that interview last night, sort of sounds like he was gearing up for what he was going to say today at 11:00 a.m. Eastern, without saying it directly.
CROWLEY: Yes. These are the things you look back on and say, oh, darn, it was all right there. But I have to tell you, I talked to him on Sunday and said, hey, no matter how you do, come rain or shine in South Carolina, are you going on to Florida? He said, that's our intention.
So, you know, the fact of the matter is until they come out and say I'm out, they're always in, you know? Because you can't ever show any sign of I'm about to get out.
I think that was one of Rick Perry's problems. Remember after Iowa, he did poorly and he came out and said, I'm going to go home and think about, you know, this, about what my future is. Then the next day he came out and said, I'm going to South Carolina.
It just was a chink and he had to put out a web ad saying, I'm not a quitter. I'm in this. Because people just sort of looked at him and thought, hmm.
He defied the principles of politics, never let them see you sweat, never let them think that you're thinking about leaving. So, I think that hurt him in Iowa. But look, he performed poorly in Iowa, he performed poorly in New Hampshire.
Rather than perform poorly in three states in a row, why not pull out now? Because you remember, this is a guy who came in, A, never having lost an election, B, he came in the day after the Iowa straw poll in August or the day of the results, one of the two, but very quickly, and he was the immediate front-runner.
So this has been a painful fall for Rick Perry. And, obviously, one he didn't want to continue.
PHILLIPS: Candy Crowley, thanks so much.
Will, Roland, are you guys still with me? I've got a question for both of you.
MARTIN: Yes.
CAIN: You bet.
MARTIN: We're here.
PHILLIPS: Two news items here breaking in the hour. Rick Santorum winning Iowa, those certified results are in. We thought Mitt Romney had won, we thought Rick Santorum had squeaked in there by eight votes coming in second. Turns out, those certified results saying that Rick Santorum won Iowa.
OK, let's take breaking news story happening this hour -- in addition to us getting the news that Rick Perry will be announcing 11:00 a.m. Eastern time, about an hour a half from now, that he is out of the race.
These two bits of information, how will it impact the debate tonight? Roland, what's your take?
MARTIN: 2008, then-Senator Hillary Clinton beat then-Senator Obama by a wide margin in Nevada. He won 14 of the delegates, she won 13.
At the end of the day, this is about delegates. And so, we can talk about Santorum winning Iowa by 34 votes, eight votes, whatever the number is. It doesn't matter. It comes down to delegates. And most of the Iowa delegates wasn't awarded on that night that will take place at their convention.
So, It's not that big of a deal. That's frankly old news because now it's about South Carolina. So, that will not be an issue when it comes to the debate. Of course, Santorum will talk about it because he'll say "I won the voters there in Iowa" but Mitt Romney's not going to worry about that.
The key tonight is simply going to be how quickly will you se them go after Romney and how does he handle the attacks? And he is going to have to have much better answers than he had beforehand. And now that Rick Perry's out, there's more time and you can't lean on Rick Perry screwing up.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: That's right. Time.
First of all -- yes, first of all on the Santorum news, it's just north of inconsequential. It doesn't impact this debate hardly at all.
On this debate, Roland mentioned the key word, time. And you have Wolf and Candy talked about this a minute, Kyra, the field has just dropped from five to four. That means more time for each candidate.
As somebody who goes on TV, let me make a promise to you, when you have 30 seconds, you can you get away with saying damn near anything. But when you have to actually have minutes to explain your position, it weeds out who knows what they're talking about from who doesn't. That means more time to talk about Bain, that means more time to talk about tax returns for Mitt Romney, it means more time to talk about possible scandals for Newt Gingrich.
Time. We'll hear a lot more and know more about these guys with four people in the field.
MARTIN: And, Kyra, expect Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney to say how long they've been married and how much they love their wives and their children, and Newt's got to stand there and suck it up.
PHILLIPS: And he's got an ex-wife that is now speaking with his kids coming to his defense. Guys --
MARTIN: That's my point.
PHILLIPS: All right. Do me a favor, Will mentioned the issue of time. We've got a lot more time to talk about these two developing stories happening right here in our hour.
The first one is our Peter Hamby breaking the news live on CNN. Rick Perry going to announce he's stepping out of the GOP race. That's going to happen at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Story number two, Rick Santorum winning Iowa. Yes. We're looking back and going to talk about the impact of that as those certified results come in.
Two big stories breaking this hour. We're going to talk about them more right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Two big news stories happening right now here on CNN. If you're just tuning in, it's about 9:45 Eastern Time. In about an hour and 15 minutes, Rick Perry is supposed to step up the mics and announce that he is stepping out of the GOP race.
This news just breaking. Our Peter Hamby confirming this through two sources. Rick Perry dropping out of the presidential run.
The other story breaking this hour, Rick Santorum winning the Iowa caucuses.
Here's the deal. You know we reported how tight it was when those results came in that Mitt Romney did win in Iowa and that Rick Santorum had the surprising bump just squeaking in there in second place by eight votes?
Well, apparently the certified results have come in and Rick Perry -- sorry, Rick Santorum is now the declared winner in Iowa.
So., we're following both of these breaking news stories this hour in the CNN NEWSROOM. We've got a lot of players as you can imagine calling in to us and joining us live.
Let's go ahead and start with our Shannon Travis.
Shannon, you are live in Charleston for us this morning. Des Moines -- you are in Des Moines for us. I've got to keep this all straight.
So, let's go ahead and let's start with the fact that we just got the certified results, right, in the past 10 minutes or so?
SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: That's right.
PHILLIPS: Rick Santorum declared the winner. What happened?
TRAVIS: Well, we don't really know what happened. We may never know what happened, Kyra, but we can tell you what they're telling us. Basically on caucus night, right, as you just mentioned, the chairman of the Iowa GOP -- I'm standing right outside the headquarters here -- he came out and gave the unofficial results that showed Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum by a thin margin of eight votes,
Well, you know that those votes have to go through a certification process, and in the process of certifying these caucus votes that didn't hold up apparently. Out of the 1,774 precincts here in Iowa, only 1,766 of them turned this documentation certifying their vote results.
So, basically, if you're not good at math, if our viewers are not good at math, I'll tell you, there are eight precincts missing their certified official vote tallies.
So in those eight precincts we don't know if Mitt Romney led, if Rick Santorum led or what have you. So this margin that we have here for Rick Santorum, this 34 votes that he won, he's won, according to these official numbers but, Kyra, is that the actual win? We may never know because the eight precincts are missing their official documentation.
PHILLIPS: Ok. And that night when the numbers were coming in we can't forget what happened in Clinton County, right? We talked to the two officials there. There was an issue with the count and the numbers and where were they. And what -- so what is this telling us about Iowa and -- and the system and how everything went down that night?
TRAVIS: Well, I think in fairness, I mean, vote counting is never a perfect process, right? We've seen these kind of -- kinds of problems in other contests in other races in other places.
However, I was there on caucus night at one of the -- one of the caucus sites and it was chaotic, Kyra. There were some precincts there in my area that didn't have the right numbers and they just -- it took a little longer for them to resolve them. Now they -- they resolved all of their numbers.
But it's an imperfect process and it just basically tells you -- that and again, with this being the closest, the closest count in Iowa caucus history, you were bound to have some kind of problems like these, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Shannon Travis in Des Moines for us.
And the other big story coming to us this hour -- Peter Hamby calling in. Rick Perry going to announce he is out of the race. Our big debate tonight goes from eight candidates from the very beginning down to four. It's going to get interesting.
Mark Preston is live in Charleston. So much to talk about regarding the big news here, Mark.
MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL EDITOR: Well, you know what's interesting about this, Kyra, is that right after the Iowa caucuses I was running to the airport about to get on the airplane, I started getting telephone calls from people telling me that, in fact, Rick Perry was going to drop out of the race. That evening after he did so poorly in Iowa he said he was going to give it some consideration.
Well, the next day there was a movement about that, in fact, he had decided to get out of the race. I've got to tell you, within a matter of about 15 or 20 minutes though the ship had turned around and apparently Rick Perry's wife had a lot to do with it. She did not want him to give up. She wanted him to go on. And they had the money. They had several million dollars which they decided to come here to South Carolina, invest it, saturate the air waves and try to make their stand in South Carolina.
So apparently what we've seen now Kyra is that public polling is showing that in fact Rick Perry was not able to get the boost that he had hoped to here in South Carolina. He's making a very calculated decision. And we've seen this decision made recently by Jon Huntsman. Get out now and try to save face a little bit.
The next question is going to be, who does Rick Perry endorse, if he endorses at all? I think the betting odds is that he would probably go to Newt Gingrich. And by doing that, will that give Newt Gingrich a boost heading into Saturday? All questions that are unanswered. But it's certainly going to be a cloud that will be hovering over on tonight's debate here in Charleston.
PHILLIPS: As our Candy Crowley said Mark, things were already getting interesting in South Carolina. Now they are really getting interesting. Mark Preston there in Charleston for us.
We will stay on these two breaking stories. Rick Santorum winning Iowa, Rick Perry getting out of the GOP race.
Stay with CNN. We'll be right back after a quick break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) PHILLIPS: Two big news stories breaking this hour right here in the CNN NEWSROOM.
We're going to go ahead and start with Rick Perry, expected to announce he is jumping out of the GOP race. That's going to happen in about an hour and ten minutes, 11:00 a.m. Eastern time.
Jim Acosta is actually traveling with the Romney camp. Jim, any reaction? I know it's happening fast. Any reaction from the camp?
JIM ACOSTA, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Not yet, Kyra, but you have to think that there's going to be some worry setting in over at the Romney camp because of what's happening this morning.
I mean Perry dropping out right now obviously is going to help Newt Gingrich. How much, it remains to be seen. I mean, in our latest CNN/"Time"/ORC poll, Perry is only drawing six percent. Look at the new Politico poll that's out this morning, Perry only has four percent.
So you know, how do you measure this at this point? It's really unclear, but the Romney camp has to look at this right now and wonder whether or not things are really moving in Newt Gingrich's direction. You heard Newt Gingrich over the last couple of days calling on some of these other un-Romneys to drop out of the race. Rick Santorum has said, thanks but no thanks, but apparently, Rick Perry has decided to do so.
And keep in mind, he's been under some pressure from conservatives to do what he is doing this morning. Eric Erickson over at RedState.com put out a posting in the last couple of days basically saying Rick Perry could go out of this race sort of like a goat or a hero, a king-maker. He drops out of this race and endorses Newt Gingrich and somehow stops Mitt Romney here in South Carolina, Mitt Romney is no longer the inevitable GOP candidate -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: But Jim, let me ask you quickly before we head over to Roland and Will -- you know our Candy Crowley was saying, look, the pressure is really going to be on Romney tonight. He's going to have to be on his game. What is he doing today to get ready for that?
ACOSTA: He has -- he has an event that's happening here in just a few moments from now. It is basically his only event of the day. They have had sort of a lighter schedule in the last couple of days, but I have to tell you, it's been -- it's been very interesting to watch this campaign over the last 24 hours. Two of his last three events, Kyra, were very sparsely attended, I mean, very small crowds compared to what we have seen from Mitt Romney in the last couple of weeks.
Now could that just be an odd sort of happenstance? Yes, possibly. And at -- and at the same time, obviously, he's coming off of a couple of days of missteps. You know, coming out and saying that he pays a 15 percent effective tax rate. That is not good news for the Romney campaign down in South Carolina where the state is at 9.9 percent unemployment rate.
At the same time, he could get away with these things up in New Hampshire. Remember the pink slips gaffe and the "I like to be able to fire people" gaffe. He was able to get away with that up in New Hampshire because he had what was essentially an insurmountable lead.
You can't get away with that down here in South Carolina and not when you're ahead by seven points in this Politico poll that came out this morning, and this NBC News/Marist poll, on the last day of that survey. It's being reported this morning, it is essentially a statistical, almost a statistical tie between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
So this race is tightening right now and Rick Perry leaving this race helps Newt Gingrich. It doesn't help Mitt Romney. And the Romney people have to know that right now, and I think that is probably why we're -- we're just getting deafening silence at this point.
PHILLIPS: All right, well, you let us know if anyone speaks up. Jim Acosta with Mitt Romney's camp there.
ACOSTA: Sure.
PHILLIPS: Thanks so much, Jim.
Roland Martin, Will Cain, let's talk to you there, live out of Charleston. So -- so Roland, sparse crowds lately for Romney is what Jim tells us.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, look, I mean, look, you can read a lot into that in terms of what does that mean, but here's something else I think we have to factor in with this news, Kyra. If this didn't happen, what would have been the topic all day? Newt Gingrich's ex-wife and her interview tonight on ABC. That's now totally off the radar.
From this point on to the end of the debate and after, it's all going to be Perry impact on Gingrich. So, if you're Newt Gingrich, you're sitting here saying, "Rick Perry, I can give you a kiss. Thank you for this gift you just gave me." Because now the entire narrative has changed. It is now all Perry, Perry, Perry, Gingrich, Romney. And Santorum, you're like, God.
PHILLIPS: Will, you heard Roland say an endorsement doesn't matter, doesn't matter who Perry endorses. However, Mark Preston's saying he's probably going to come out and endorse Newt Gingrich. What is your take on that? Does an endorsement matter or not at this point?
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: No, it will matter. It will matter for Newt Gingrich. Let me say this, though, you also had Jim Acosta talking about the Romney campaign's response to this. Let me offer you a silver lining for the Romney campaign. Pundits have forwarded a narrative, a correct narrative that Romney has benefited from a fractured field, right? Because no one can coalesce behind one alternative, it's helped Romney.
Well, think about the two news stories we're talking about today. One, Perry dropping out and endorsing, possibly supporting Newt Gingrich, helps Gingrich. But at the same time the narrative that Santorum might have won Iowa, makes him seem like a more legitimate alternative.
The point is now you have three candidates: Romney, Santorum and Gingrich, still dividing the field. Santorum and Gingrich still dividing the alternatives. It does not coalesce behind any Mitt Romney alternative. I don't think the news is all bad for Mitt.
MARTIN: And I disagree, Kyra this whole notion that all the pressure is now on Mitt Romney. If I'm Mitt Romney, I'm telling you right now, I'm not going to get into the mud with Gingrich and Santorum and Ron Paul. If I'm him, I'm focusing my attacks solely on President Obama and I'm constantly repeating the mantra, that's what Republicans should be focused on. If you guys want to sit here and tear me down, knock yourself out, but I'm focused on being the president. If he says that, you're going to see a reaction from the crowd, you're going to see I think a reaction from folks at home. So, he has to be able to turn their negativity back against them and not feel as if I'm under siege.
PHILLIPS: Will and Roland, we're going to keep talking about this. You saw it first right here on CNN.
Our Peter Hamby calling in to us to tell us two sources confirming Rick Perry going to call it quits today. It should happen about an hour from now. You'll see it live right here on CNN. Best breaking news.
Tonight, two days before the South Carolina primary election, four GOP contenders will now debate the issues. "THE SOUTHERN REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE" on CNN tonight, 8:00 eastern.
Two breaking news stories. We're going to talk more about how they're going to impact that presidential debate tonight on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
