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Perry To Drop Out, Endorse Gingrich; Official Iowa Results In: Santorum Wins
Aired January 19, 2012 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to CNN. Just about the top of the hour here. Two breaking political news stories right here in the NEWSROOM.
First up, Rick Perry getting ready to tell all his supporters that he's out. In just about an hour, he holds an event in North Charleston, South Carolina, where he's expected to drop his bid for the White House.
Then in Iowa, the certified caucus results are in, and guess what? Rick Santorum won, not Mitt Romney. I've got The Best Political Team on television with me right now.
We're going to start with Wolf Blitzer on the phone along with our Peter Hamby, who broke the story about Rick Perry, Mark Preston, Paul Steinhauser also on the ground in Charleston.
We'll talk more about our debate tonight. Then we've got Shannon Travis live in Des Moines talking about Rick Santorum actually winning Iowa.
All right, Wolf, let's start with you. The biggest news, Rick Perry in about an hour going to step up to the mic and announce that he is out. Are you surprised?
WOLF BLITZER, HOST, CNN'S "THE SITUATION ROOM" (via telephone): I'm sort of surprised. I thought he would do it after -- he was almost certainly going to finish last on Saturday. I assumed he would drop out after that.
But to save himself some humiliation of coming in actually last, they took a lot of his terms. He'll have this news conference at 11:00, make a statement, I assume answer some questions. Let's see if he endorses anyone.
He's following in the footsteps of Jon Huntsman, who did the same thing earlier this week, announcing he was stepping out. Huntsman, as you know, went on to endorse Mitt Romney. And let's see if Rick Perry endorses anyone.
But it's a much more gracious exit for Rick Perry than had he waited and come in a distant, distant, dead last on Saturday. That would have been really humiliating.
You know, looking back, after he didn't do well in Iowa and he said he was going to spend the night, reassess whether to continue on to New Hampshire. He went jogging the next morning and he said, you know what, I'm going to continue.
He did poorly in New Hampshire. He almost certainly would have come in last here in South Carolina, didn't have much going for him in Florida, either, if you took a look at the national polls, the Florida polls.
So, at least he'll go out with a little bit of dignity today. And the question is, you know, whatever support he did have -- and he came in 5 percent, 6 percent, something like that in all these recent polls in South Carolina.
Let's see who gets the benefit. I suspect it's going to not help Mitt Romney. It will either help Gingrich or Santorum, maybe to a certain degree, Ron Paul, because it will -- those who were inclined to vote for Rick Perry will move in that direction.
They probably won't move in the Mitt Romney direction. So, it's less of a division. It's good news for Santorum and Gingrich and Paul. Not such good news for Mitt Romney, although you know, the difference, we'll see how much of a difference it actually makes.
PHILLIPS: Interesting. Within all this breaking news, you're the first one to mention Ron Paul.
BLITZER: Yes, well, Ron Paul, like a few of the Rick Perry supporters, Ron Paul, like Rick Perry from Texas. They don't have a good relationship. They had a very bad relationship.
In fact, I interviewed Ron Paul on several occasions when Rick Perry announced he was running. He said I barely know the guy. I don't think I've ever met him. We really haven't had any contact, even though for 10 years, almost 11 years, Rick Perry's been governor of Texas.
The same state that Ron Paul has a district in, but these guys were not close or anything. They barely knew each other and they as came out during the campaign. They didn't like each other on a bunch of issues.
So one thing is clear, Rick Perry is not going to endorse Ron Paul. I can assure you about that, Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Wolf, thanks. And the man that broke the story for us, our Peter Hamby is on the phone with us. I mentioned, I'm going to say it again. This has been quite a week for you, Peter.
You have quite a few political sources. You broke the news Jon Huntsman was going to pull out of the race. Now you've broken the news Rick Perry is pulling out of the race today.
Tell us how this all unfolded and when exactly you got the news and what does this mean to you moving forward?
PETER HAMBY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (via telephone): Well, I was working on another story this morning about the robo calls that the Romney campaign was putting out, attacking Newt Gingrich. I got a phone call from a good source of mine who said that he had received a call from one of Perry's leading supporters.
Basically, Perry had told some of his top financial backers and confidantes and they started making some phone calls around the country on his behalf. I tried to talk to some staff members.
There were several staff members who were not aware that this is happening. The Perry campaign still has substantial media buys on television, in the mail, online. So, a lot of people in the campaign were sort of caught off guard by this, but they eventually came around, Kyra.
One thing I want to point out in this discussion is this is a bad day for Mitt Romney if Rick Perry does decide to endorse Newt Gingrich. There are some reports that that might happen.
Perry has an anti-Gingrich web site up that was taken down this morning. That's sort of a clue that this might happen.
PHILLIPS: Interesting.
HAMBY: Basically, you see that 6 percent might go to Gingrich, if that happens. But Romney's had a very bad 48 hours. He had a tough debate. Gingrich had a good debate. Romney fumbled some questions about his taxes and his personal income.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is surging and the Romney campaign is trying to hit him. If you see these anti-Romney conservative forces start to coalesce just before the primary, it could be a bad Saturday for Mitt Romney.
So, that's something to keep an eye on today when we go to this press conference. And we will see, we haven't confirmed yet that he will endorse Gingrich, but there are clues pointing in that direction -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Peter, isn't it amazing how absolutely cruel these candidates can be to each other, and the next thing you know, they're turning around endorsing each other?
HAMBY: It is. Sometimes, it's the nature of the campaign. Perry, quite frankly, is one of the more affable human beings I've ever met in politics. He's extremely kind on a personal level, but he didn't get along with Mitt Romney very well, I can tell you that much.
As Wolf mentioned, him and Ron Paul have a little bit of a frosty relationship. But him and Gingrich, and him and Huntsman, for example, did have nice relationships.
Perry's wife and Huntsman's wife were very close, even before Perry jumped in the race Gingrich went around the country saying really nice thing about Rick Perry.
Newt Gingrich wrote the forward to Rick Perry's book. These guys are friends. So, as much as they've dinged each other in the course of all these debates and on the campaign trail, at the end of the day, you like some people more than others on a personal level.
I do believe, and from what I've been told, Perry and Romney, again, don't have the closest of relationships, though -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Our Peter Hamby definitely with the inside scoop, especially today. Great job, Peter. Let's get to Mark Preston there on the ground in Charleston.
Our big debate tonight, 8:00 Eastern Time, CNN debate. Now it will be four candidates going at each other. What are you expecting to see now, Mark? This definitely changes the dynamic.
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: It certainly changes the dynamic. Really, just to follow up on Peter's reporting right there, Kyra, I just got off the phone with someone very close to Governor Perry.
They said that in the past hour now, Senator Santorum's campaign and House speaker, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign have reached out to Governor Perry seeking his support, described to me by the source as a very aggressive effort to try to get Governor Perry to back their candidacy.
So, as we want to talk about timing, right now is an extremely important time in this presidential campaign as we speak, because Rick Perry, although he was only at 6 percent, 7 percent, 8 percent in the polls.
He still has a very strong following with Evangelical voters who do make up a big part of the electorate certainly here in the primary electorate, here in South Carolina. Rick Perry also has a lot of big-name donors as well, Kyra.
As far as tonight for the debate, four people on stage. In many ways, this is the closing argument for these candidates. Rick Santorum needs to show that he is a strong debater. He needs to be able to get into the mix.
He needs to be able to try to contrast himself with Newt Gingrich and with Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich now has a high bar to keep, Kyra, because bottom line, he had a good debate the other night. Can he keep that up?
And for Mitt Romney, who's the frontrunner, even though we've seen him slipping in the polls, Mitt Romney at this point needs to show that he can weather attacks from Rick Santorum and from Newt Gingrich.
And as you said, Ron Paul is still on stage. He has a lot of support, but doesn't have the support of the GOP establishment, and that's why he is very unlikely, and quite frankly, is not going to be the Republican presidential nominee -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: It's going to be a great debate. Mark Preston, thanks so much. We'll be talking more this hour.
If you're just tuning in, two big breaking news stories. Rick Perry set to announce he's pulling out of the GOP race. It should happen about 50 minutes from now right here live on CNN.
The other big story, Rick Santorum winning Iowa. I know, a lot of you are saying, wait a minute, what? Let's get straight to our Shannon Travis. He's in Des Moines. He's been saying that all morning, too. Say what? Let's explain how this happened.
SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kyra, it's rare that you get days like these, right, where it's just so many big, major political developments, but let's talk about the one that's happening here in Des Moines.
I'm standing right outside the Iowa Republican Party headquarters. Rick Santorum, according to the Iowa GOP, has won the Republican -- the Iowa caucuses. Now, say what? What is that about?
OK, on caucus night, we saw the unofficial numbers that Mitt Romney beat Santorum by eight votes, but there's a process that needs votes have to go through and be certified. Well that certification process has ended, and the Iowa GOP tells us that Rick Santorum won by 34 votes.
Now, there's a huge question mark we have to make sure our viewers understand. There's a huge question mark over this because there are eight precincts of the 1774 here in Iowa. There are eight that didn't turn in the documentation to certify their results. So, what does that mean?
It means that we'll never know whether Mitt Romney won the bulk of those votes in those precincts, whether Rick Santorum won or whatever. So, this is a win for Santorum, but it's a win with an asterisk, a question mark, if you will.
But you can best believe that Rick Santorum's campaign is playing this up big time -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: All right, Shannon Travis in Des Moines, Iowa. Thanks so much.
Two breaking news stories here in the CNN NEWSROOM. First up, Rick Perry going to announce he is stepping out of the GOP race. That's going to happen about 50 minutes from now, live right here on CNN. He is expected to speak at the top of the hour.
The other story, as you just heard, Rick Santorum, after those certified results came in, winning the Iowa caucuses. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to talk about these two big stories throughout the next hour coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: If you're just tuning in to CNN, two breaking news stories for you this morning. In about 45 minutes, we're expecting Rick Perry to step up to the mics and announce that he is stepping out of the GOP race.
Our Peter Hamby breaking this story more than an hour ago. The other story coming out of Des Moines, Iowa, Mitt Romney not the winner there. Apparently, it's Rick Santorum. We're going to talk about both of those stories.
Let's bring in our Roland Martin and Will Cain joining us out of Charleston. Boy, this has changed the dynamic of the day, guys. We're going to stay with these stories throughout the next hour until we hit 11:00, when Rick Perry is supposed to step up to the mics.
But if you were to sort of look back and read between the lines, let's listen to what Rick Perry said to our John King, guys, last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOVERNOR RICK PERRY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The idea that we're going to do anything else other than try to impact this election and that's why we got in it. We didn't get it because it was our purpose in life to be the president of the United States. We did it because it was our purpose to serve this country, and that's what we've been called for and that's what we're going to continue doing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: OK, Roland Martin, now that he is going to step out of the race, how is he going to impact the presidential run for the GOPs?
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look, I mean, if he comes out and endorses Newt Gingrich, it is going to obviously have an impact. Remember, South Carolina was always supposed to be the true conservative firewall to Mitt Romney.
And so, that's actually what you're looking at here. And so, look, the race has tightened. If Newt Gingrich wins -- remember, that's the key -- if Newt Gingrich is able to win on Saturday, then we will all say Perry was a difference-maker.
If Romney pulls it out on Saturday, all of a sudden, the inevitable question comes back, and he will have proven, Evangelicals in Iowa, strong conservative state in the south -- South Carolina. He'll be much better.
So, a whole lot is riding on what happens on Saturday, but this certainly helps Newt Gingrich. And if you're Rick Santorum, you're just praying to God right now, or maybe you're calling Tim Tebow and saying, please, please, don't let him endorse Newt.
PHILLIPS: You know, a lot of the candidates have been trying to get Tim Tebow's support. That's no joke as we all well know. Will, what are you looking to tonight in the debate? How is this going to change the dynamic?
WILL CAIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: First, let me say, that's nonsense what Rick Perry said. He got into this race to impact the election, yes, by winning it.
MARTIN: Right.
CAIN: He's not an ideologue. This is not Ron Paul we're talking about here. This is a politician who got in it to win. How will it impact?
We talked a little earlier, Kyra, four men are on stage now, not five. That means more time. That means each of the candidates have more time to talk about Newt Gingrich's possible scandals, Romney's Bain years, his tax issues.
Time, time will tell us, do you really know what you're talking about? Are you really prepared to have a debate or have you got your sound bites ready because you're going to have a little more time. Those might not fly tonight.
MARTIN: I also think, Kyra, that from our CNN standpoint, we also have some adjustments to make tonight as well, because the dynamics are going to change. And so, you know, I really hope the key is not only allowing folks more time to talk.
But also pressing them when they begin to make false statements in these debates and holding feet to the fire, saying wait a minute, you're not going to stand up on the stage and say something we know is factual incorrect.
Let's not correct them after the debate when we do a fact check. So, I think also let's have that kind of dynamic. I expect tonight to be a lot more free-wheeling than had Rick Perry been on the stage because as you said, with time, you get to be able to engage more.
CAIN: More of a debate, a debate, the actual word, debate.
PHILLIPS: Newt Gingrich and Erick Erickson calling for Rick Perry to get out of the race. Let's take a listen to them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ERICK ERICKSON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: He's going to drop out. He's going to quit the race. The question is, does he quit on Sunday or does he quit today? He wants someone to advance his agenda, the make Washington as inconsequential as possible.
He's not going to be the guy to do it. I think his campaign knows it. They're winding down to drop out on Sunday or Monday. So, why not do it today? He's got 6 percent right now.
His people really like him. Polls show that Newt Gingrich is the second most viable person for his supporters. There are still a number of undecided people. He could be the guy who makes Newt Gingrich win the race.
NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm the only conservative who realistically has a chance to be the nominee. So, any vote for Santorum or Perry, in effect, is a vote to allow Romney to become the nominee, because we've got to bring conservatives together in order to stop him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Guys, is there a point where, you know, the candidate is sitting back, listening to all of this, and at some point says, wow, OK, I've got this person, that person, this candidate, that candidate, it's just time? How much does that really impact a candidate's decision, in this case, Rick Perry -- Roland?
MARTIN: If you're Rick Perry, you're not listening to Erick Erickson, you're not listening to Newt Gingrich. What you're looking at are internal poll numbers showing that after Iowa, a disappointing finish by Rick Perry, only person who did worse, what, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman, OK?
So, you said I'm skipping New Hampshire and South Carolina is all of my focus. Remember, Rick Perry launched his presidential campaign in this state. And so, when you look at the numbers showing he's polling at 3 percent, 5 percent, you're saying, man, I'm going to get killed!
You saved yourself from embarrassment. This is a guy who used to be head of the Republican Governors Association. He's head of a significant state. Also, he has been able to raise money.
If he decides to endorse, not only does he move folks in the state, but he also can move dollars. He also can say I'll be someone's surrogate. And so, that's the trade-off there, but he's not sitting here listening to somebody say get out. Poll numbers speak volumes.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: I just want to say Roland might be right, Rick Perry's not listening to Erick Erickson, but kudos to Erick for this, because we all saw that Rick Perry probably wasn't going to survive beyond South Carolina, which meant he was going to drop out shortly after South Carolina.
But Erick did see, there's no point in sticking in through South Carolina. In fact, you have a net negative by staying in, showing up with a disappointing last place, having another bad debate. Now is the time. I think Erick called this really well.
MARTIN: It was stunning, first of all, for him not to even come out after Iowa. I mean, because literally, I mean, he put a lot on it. His whole message was supposed to be tailored to Evangelicals in Iowa. It got no response whatsoever.
So, to go back to Texas, then say, I'm actually going on to South Carolina, that was still sort of weird there as well. Everybody -- show me a politician, I will show you someone who wants to be relevant.
And of course, Governor Perry still wants to be relevant. If he got dusted on Saturday and didn't drop out, he would have no relevance whatsoever. And in fact, he could potentially get blamed if Romney had won, it was a tight race and he stuck in the race.
So, you cut base, you move on, you grab your cowboy hat and you take it back to Texas and you suck it up and say, well, it happens.
CAIN: Roland and I are still here to keep the Texas quotient up.
MARTIN: Absolutely, absolutely.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Giddyap.
MARTIN: These two Texans will still be in South Carolina. One will not.
PHILLIPS: Roland, Will, don't go anywhere, please. Don't ride off into the sunset just yet.
If you're just tuning in to CNN, 10:20 Eastern Time, in less than an hour, probably about 45 minutes from now, we're expecting Rick Perry to step up to the mic and announce that he is officially jumping out of the GOP race. That's one breaking news story that CNN brought to you this morning. The other one is Rick Santorum winning Iowa. We'll explain that as well. Take a quick break. More from the CNN NEWSROOM. Straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: It's 10:23 Eastern Time, but in about 40 minutes from now, live here on CNN, we are expecting to hear from Rick Perry, announcing that he is pulling out of the presidential race. We broke that news more than an hour ago.
Our Peter Hamby working his sources, calling in to us, the rest is history. We're going to talk about this. Up until that point of 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, when Rick Perry is expected to announce that he is dropping out and no longer looking toward the White House.
The other big story, out of Des Moines, Iowa, Rick Santorum winning. That's right. We talked so much about how close he came to Mitt Romney, just squeaking in there, a tight second with eight votes.
"The Des Moines Register" talks about the story, about, no, the counts were wrong. Sure enough, certified votes come in, Rick Santorum the winner in Iowa. Two stories that we're working for you right now in the CNN NEWSROOM.
We're going to get straight to and remind you, again, we've had so much -- Jim Acosta, there we go. I'll tell you what, Jim Acosta, it's been a juggling act today, all the various players weighing in on these two big stories, but there you are with the Romney campaign.
I know that about half an hour ago you hadn't gotten word yet if they were going to respond to the fact that Rick Perry is jumping out, but now there's this talk, possibly Rick Perry is going to endorse Mitt Romney. What are you hearing? What's your take on all the news?
JIM ACOSTA, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I've got to tell you, dead silence from the Romney campaign so far on Rick Perry's apparent decision to drop out of this race. And even more apparent, endorsement of Newt Gingrich.
We'll have to wait and see exactly what Governor Perry has to said at that press conference to figure out exactly what is going on here. It does sound like he is dropping out of the race, but this is not a good day for Mitt Romney.
He woke up this morning and found out that the news coming out of Iowa is, basically, he didn't win Iowa. Remember that night? He -- it was reported that he won by an eight-vote margin.
He called it a squeaker out on the campaign trail, sort of joked about it. McCain, John McCain, one of his top surrogates at an event in New Hampshire referred to Mitt Romney as "landslide Romney," so they were having fun with that.
My guess is they're not having as much fun with the fact that Rick Santorum has apparently pulled out the win in Iowa, although the folks out in Iowa aren't exactly sure whether or not they can declare this a total victory for Rick Santorum.
But I have to tell you, you know, this really cuts into that era -- that air, excuse me, of inevitably that the Romney campaign has really been trying to milk over the last couple weeks, coming off of the big win in New Hampshire and coming into South Carolina.
They were way ahead in the polls. Everybody was talking about, well, maybe Mitt Romney can't be stopped. And here we go, in 24 hours, we've gone from Mitt Romney winning in Iowa, winning in New Hampshire and on his way to winning in South Carolina to losing Iowa or tying in Iowa, winning in New Hampshire, which is essentially his backyard and adopted home state.
And now with the polls showing Newt Gingrich right on his heels, perhaps, if you look at the trends, potentially on the verge of catching Mitt Romney and passing him here in South Carolina so, this has been an amazing 24 hours to watch. Not a great 24 hours for the Romney campaign -- Kyra.
PHILLIPS: You know, before we head out, very quickly, Jim, why don't you tell us exactly where you are? Is Romney expected to come out at this event and speak?
ACOSTA: The pressure is on. Our Candy Crowley saying he's got to be on his game tonight. What's he doing between now and the debate on CNN at 8:00 eastern to prepare?
ACOSTA: This is his one and only event of the day, Kyra. And just to look out on this crowd here, I can show you, this is another sparse crowd for Mitt Romney. Now, not every crowd has been this way over the course of the campaign here in South Carolina.
He's had some big events where the crowd just hasn't been that big. There was one event in Florence, South Carolina where they went into a convention center and there was maybe a 100 or 200 people inside.
And they were all sort of crowding around him and the images from that event were not very good. Same goes for this event. This event was supposed to start 15 minutes ago. They've got the bus parked here.
They've got all the stage crafting set, but they don't have a big crowd in place for Mitt Romney. He is expected to come out here, talk to this crowd, go inside, talk to the staff inside the South Carolina headquarters -- or the Charleston headquarters. And then he's in debate prep the rest of the day, which is probably not a bad idea for Mitt Romney. That debate he had on Monday night was not his best debate.
He sort of hemmed and hawed on whether or not he would release his tax returns, then came out the next day and said he's going to release his tax returns in April then one of his top surrogates, Chris Christi, comes out and says release the tax returns now.
So it's been sort of misstep after misstep for the Romney campaign. He had these missteps out in New Hampshire. He talked about pink slips and I like to fire people. That didn't cost him in New Hampshire because he had such a big lead up there.
Here in South Carolina where he's potentially within the margin of error with Newt Gingrich, he can't afford any more missteps. I would say all the pressure is on Mitt Romney at tonight's CNN debate, Kyra. T here's really no other way to look at it.
PHILLIPS: Jim Acosta with the Romney campaign. Let's pump it up again tonight, just two days before the South Carolina primary election. Thos GOP contenders debate the issues.
It's now going to be four, not five, the Southern Republican Presidential Debate on CNN tonight, 8:00 Eastern. With the breaking news, we're going to continue to stay on. Rick Perry going to announce he's pulling out of the GOP race in about 30 minutes, live right here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: It's time for "Political Buzz," your rapid-fire look at the best political topics of the day. Three questions, but we're wiping out the 30 seconds on the clock. The stories are just so good.
Playing today, Democratic strategist, Robert Zimmerman; founder and editor of Citizen Jane Politics, Patricia Murphy; and CNN contributor Will Cain.
First question, guys, and I'm going to kind of split this up, if you don't mind. Rick Perry dropping out of the race. We've been talking about it all morning now. Expected to make his announcement in about 30 minutes. Where do his supporters go? Robert.
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, it's important to remember just how small his supporter base is. But you've got to say advantage Gingrich in that Perry dropping out just contributes to the momentum Newt Gingrich is gaining and he's got a natural affinity with many of these Evangelical voters.
I would point out, however, I was talking to my Republican leadership friends in South Carolina, there's a strong collection of retired military personnel who live in that state who vote Republican. Some of them Perry was playing to, maybe some of them a little Romney.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: Well, I'm not trying to be cute, but you know, like Robert just said, what supporters? We're not talking about a huge number of people here. That being said, it kind of sticks with the same narrative here, Kyra, they'll most likely go to Gingrich because he's going to probably throw them that way, but they're going to be split. That's the story, it's always split. There is no -- there is no coalescing here.
Some will go to Santorum, some will go to Gingrich, and you know what? Some will go to Romney. And this thing will stay a fractured field. It's not going to -- it's not going to simplify this field.
PHILLIPS: Patricia.
PATRICIA MURPHY, EDITOR/FOUNDER, CITIZEN JANE POLITICS: I actually disagree with Will. This is simplifying the field and this is conservatives coalescing. This is what it looks like.
There aren't that many Perry supporters, but I do think most of them will go to Newt Gingrich. These are not people who have not considered Mitt Romney. They know all about Mitt Romney. They are ready to back somebody who they believe to be a conservative.
They know Newt Gingrich very well. He's from right next door, a long history in South Carolina. And he's starting to get what Romney has and what Newt Gingrich has always needed, the cloak of inevitability, the person who could actually win this race. He may win South Carolina. People want to back a winner. They're ready to back Newt Gingrich, at least in South Carolina. I think this is a big day for him.
(CROSSTALK)
ZIMMERMAN: You know Patricia if I --
PHILLIPS: Go ahead Robert.
ZIMMERMAN: One point? I think it's also worth putting it in perspective. As exciting and momentous this is right now before South Carolina, with tonight's showdown of a debate and possibly the release of Newt Gingrich's former's wife -- former wife's interview with ABC, the momentum could shift back dramatically as well tomorrow morning. We all underestimate the importance of organization in a close race like this, and certainly, Mitt Romney has amongst the Republican establishment and Governor Nikki Haley a strong organization. That's never been Gingrich's strength.
PHILLIPS: All right, let me ask you guys this. Let me change the rules for a minute and kind of follow up. We're talking about, you know I've asked you where you think the votes will go. All right, we're talking about South Carolina, the debate tonight. But the news of Rick Perry jumping out, how does this change the game going beyond South Carolina? Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: Well personally, it always worries me as a Democrat to see Republicans drop out. We want this going on much longer. But I think it does have an impact because it does crystallize the choice. It's clearly becoming a Gingrich versus Romney competition with Ron Paul getting his 15 percent, 20 percent.
So I think it does define the issues more clearly. I think what's interesting is to note Romney, while he certainly -- while he still can't answer a straight question about superfund PACs or his taxes or how many jobs Bain has created, does have organization in place. Never been Gingrich's strength.
PHILLIPS: Will?
CAIN: Yes, let me say one thing, Patricia is right, I said simplify the field. When you go from five to four that simplifies it but here's where Patricia is wrong it doesn't coalesce the field. No matter how you divide this Republican electorate, whether or not you divide it by Tea Party supporters or you divide it by Evangelicals, there's a narrative out there that everybody's fractured among the anti-Romney. That's false.
When you look at all these or these exit polls from New Hampshire, they are always fractured among everybody. My point is Romney's getting some of these -- these constituencies. He's getting some Tea Partiers. He's getting some Evangelicals. He's actually even first or second place in most of these things and he will get some of Rick Perry's supporters as well.
PHILLIPS: All right. The other big story, guys, this morning happening in our hours here, certified results coming in from Iowa. Rick Santorum actually winning Iowa, not Mitt Romney. So, let's talk about these two stories breaking. Romney's mindset heading into tonight's CNN debate. Will?
CAIN: Happy. Happy mindset. I mean look, the news cycle today was first about Newt Gingrich's possible scandals coming out today. That's good, because you know what that means? Less time to talk about Bain and tax returns. Now it's about Newt Gingrich dropping out, it looks like honestly, it's not the best news in the world for Mitt Romney but it'll be another topic of conversation.
And Rick Santorum winning Iowa is just north of inconsequential. It's not going to have any impact on any actual momentum or election returns in the field. It will -- what it will do is solidify that this is a fractured field and it allows Romney in the debates tonight to stay on defense. He does well on defense. He does well when the topic is not Mitt Romney. He does well when the topic is Obama or one of the other guys on the stage. That's when he does his best.
PHILLIPS: Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: Look, Mitt Romney's mindset? Unless he's taking Valium, he can't be in a particularly good place today, because this is really a test when you go beyond the issues of organization and talking points, it's a test of whether he can stand up to the heat and stand up to the pressure.
As I mentioned, he's had 16 debates where he's not been able to give straight answers on basic questions. So, now, going into the debate tonight, he's got to be on attack, he's got to redefine the issues. Will's comment about Romney does well against Obama, that's true because Barack Obama is not in the race. The issue is how Mitt Romney does against Newt Gingrich and against Ron Paul. And that's his great challenge.
PHILLIPS: Patricia?
MURPHY: Yes again, I'm sorry, I have to disagree with Will. I think Mitt Romney has got to be going into panic mode right now. This -- and he doesn't do well on defense that's his problem, he's been playing not to lose, he's been playing as the front-runner. Guess what? You lost Iowa, guess what you're about to lose South Carolina, guess what you can't talk about being a rich guy when the country is struggling.
He, I think, is going to be in a little bit of a panic mode. He needs to settle down. I think it's very smart for him to be going into debate prep, but I think he needs to go on the offense, he needs to go after Newt Gingrich. Newt Gingrich has a barrel full of skeletons in his closet. Why isn't Mitt Romney talking about them? He needs to start playing to win.
PHILLIPS: All right.
CAIN: I may have overstated the happy thing, but Patricia, the narrative that Mitt Romney's panicking is going to get out of control. It is not true.
ZIMMERMAN: Will, Patricia is correct.
MURPHY: Well, he needs to panic. It's time to start panicking and hit the panic button and you need to start playing to win.
CAIN: Thanks, Robert.
PHILLIPS: Robert, you're supporting the panic button?
ZIMMERMAN: I'm supporting Patricia on this one, Will. I mean --
(CROSSTALK) CAIN: Yes. That means you're running towards the cliff. Don't -- don't mind following them there.
PHILLIPS: All right, well, then, taking that in, let's talk about the debate tonight. All right, let's look at the players: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul. Let's see, how do I want to phrase this question? Do you guys each want to pick a candidate, or maybe give a piece of advice to each candidate? Why don't we try that? Will?
CAIN: You're going to start with me. That's so complicated. I get to pick how I answer this question. My advice to Romney will be -- Robert hinted to it -- you do need to come up with direct answers to pretty simple questions about your tax returns. You have a great answer about Bain. Stick with it, defend capitalism and let the focus be on these others while they mutually destruct as they have the past six months.
ZIMMERMAN: Will --
CAIN: Advice to Gingrich, be nice, be happy, let people identify with you. Don't be condescending. You're a good debater, but you don't have to remind us.
PHILLIPS: Robert.
ZIMMERMAN: Ok, Will, the issue's not about defending capitalism. The issue is Mitt Romney telling the truth about whether Bain created jobs or not. He's made that the centerpiece of his campaign. Not that he's a successful businessman, but that he's a job-creator. Let's get a straight answer on that.
For Newt Gingrich, obviously, he's got to stay on the attack and he's got to smile while he's doing it, not looking petulant. That's a problem for him.
Ron Paul he's got to try to focus on the domestic agenda, not foreign policy nor his outer space rhetoric. That's his problem from that perspective.
And for Rick Santorum, forget about Iowa. You've got bragging rights, you've got some news clips on it. You've got to shift your message from Evangelical to economic and see if that works to broaden your base.
PHILLIPS: Patricia?
MURPHY: Ok, Mitt Romney, get your tax answer straight. I don't know why he seems so surprised by this question. He needs to be able to say tonight --
(CROSSTALK)
CAIN: Right.
MURPHY: -- what his effective tax rate is and why he doesn't pay as much as everybody else. That is a massive, massive problem for him and he seems so unprepared for it. He's got to be ready for that question.
And Newt Gingrich, keep up the good work. Listen, I talked to a bunch of South Carolina voters this week. Anybody who was undecided came around to Newt Gingrich the moment in the debate when he went after Juan Williams. I thought it was not a great moment for him, but South Carolina voters really responded to it.
GOP voters want somebody who's going to fight Obama and that's what that moment was to them. And they came around to him in that debate. And I think they'll do some more tonight. This is his best venue and I think he should keep doing what he's doing because it's working.
PHILLIPS: Patricia, Will, Robert, thanks so much guys.
MURPHY: Thanks, Kyra.
ZIMMERMAN: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: You bet.
20 minutes from now, we're expecting Rick Perry to step up to the mikes live here on CNN and announce that he is no longer running for president. Just one of the two big stories that we broke and are talking about today. The other, Rick Santorum winning Iowa. We're talking about both of these stories more in depth right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: You saw it first right here on CNN, our Peter Hamby breaking the story. Rick Perry, in about 15 minutes, he's going to be live right here on CNN, 11:00 a.m. Eastern time, announcing that he is no longer running for president.
Mark Preston live in Charleston for us, where we're getting ready for the big CNN debate tonight. It's gone now from five to four candidates, Mark. Two questions for you. There's been this back-and- forth, is Rick Perry going to endorse Mitt Romney? Is he going to show some type of support for Mitt Romney? What do you know?
PRESTON: Well, let me just give you the behind-the-scenes, the fog of war, so to speak, in politics in the past hour.
What we know at this point is that Rick Santorum's campaign and Newt Gingrich's campaign have reached out to Rick Perry, seeking his support. Now, this is very important because we are in the closing days of the South Carolina primary, and the fact of the matter is, even though that Rick Perry only has 6 percent, 7 percent, 8 percent in the polls, he still is influential, especially with Evangelicals, and perhaps he could steer some money to either Gingrich or Santorum.
We also know at this point, and from Dana Bash, she's reporting that Rick Perry is likely to say some very nice things about Newt Gingrich at his announcement that he's stepping out of the race, but he will not explicitly endorse. What does that mean? Who really knows? Because once you actually start mentioning someone by name, that's explicitly an endorsement.
Also at this point, you're talking about the candidates who are trying to prepare for this debate, this nationally televised debate that's going to be on CNN tonight. A lot of pressure's going to be on Mitt Romney to be able to try to fend off the attacks that he's going to get from Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. And quite frankly, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, Kyra, have got to figure out how they're going to go after one another.
So, there's a lot on the table. A lot is happening just in the last hour and we expect actually a lot more to happen in the hours leading up to the debate.
PHILLIPS: And one thing we've wanted to know is what does Mitt Romney think about Rick Perry jumping out of the presidential race? He's holding a live event, Mark, right now in Charleston. Let's go ahead and take it live.
(BEGIN LIVE SPEECH)
(JOINED IN PROGRESS)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Happy birthday to you.
All right. We wanted to be the first to do that. I was in Washington at a hearing. And it turns out that one of the congressmen had a birthday. And I didn't -- I had never heard this birthday song they sang in Washington, D.C. They didn't sing that whole, long version that we just did.
Have you heard the one they sing there? Have you heard it? It went like this -- this is your birthday song, it won't go on too long. Congratulations. That's it.
So -- pardon? Oh, yes, rah. We have a little rah there at the end.
I thought this morning that with just family and friends here, that instead of, if you will, telling all about the challenges and the failures of the president and so forth, I'd spend just a moment talking about Anne and my life, our personal background, just because I'd like you to know us better on a personal basis.
Anne grew up not very far from where I lived. We went to the same elementary school. I saw her in high school. We fell in love in high school, have been in love ever since. Her dad came to this country as a boy from Wales. And his dad brought his family to this country after having an accident in the mines of Wales, came here because this is the land of opportunity. This is the land where freedom lovers and people hoping for a brighter future for themselves and for their kids come.
It's the nature of America. And they found out, and their family, that if they wanted to achieve great things in America, they needed to have education, but they couldn't afford it, for all the kids they had. And so, the four kids came together with their parents and said, you know, if we all work hard and we all save our money, we can afford to send one of us to college. This happened to be Anne's dad. And so, they all saved. Can you imagine working all the time and then putting your money, you know, in a vase in the center of the kitchen table every week?
(END LIVE SPEECH)
PHILLIPS: Mitt Romney holding a live event there in Charleston. Of course, what we really want to know -- it's very nice that he sang happy birthday to Governor Nikki Haley -- but what we really want to know is what he says about the fact that Rick Perry is no longer going to be running against him. We are going to monitor this live event and see if, indeed, he addresses the breaking news, the breaking news that happened right here on CNN about an hour and a half ago.
Our Peter Hamby breaking the news that Rick Perry is going to jump out of the GOP race. As soon as Mitt Romney mentions anything about what he thinks about that, we'll take you back to his event live in Charleston.
More from the CNN newsroom straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: Well, it happened right here in the CNN NEWSROOM. Our Peter Hamby breaking the story. Rick Perry in about ten minutes expected to step up to the mike and tell America he is no longer running for president.
You know, it's two more days until the presidential primary in South Carolina, and for many weary residents, the end can't come soon enough. They're exhausted from this endless barrage of campaign aids, many of them negative and mean.
CNN's Don Lemon has actually traveled to the state. He's been talking to voters. He's following all the latest and greatest news in politics this morning.
So, where do you want to start? Do you want to talk about how strong is the reaction to the attack ads? Have you got any scoop on Rick Perry? Go ahead -- Don.
DON LEMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Oh, my gosh, Kyra. I've been watching you and I'm like, I don't know how she doesn't have whiplash, how she is keeping up with all of this.
And that's kind of what the voters are doing. I've been talking to them this morning. They're like, I don't know if it's going to make a difference, I don't know what's going on. But you're right, the one consistent thing that they tell me is that they're tired of these attack ads. Kyra, you cannot turn on a television or radio without hearing that guy -- you know the voice every time -- this guy is bad. Do not vote for him. He is terrible. Vote for me. I approve this message. They're sick of it.
Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am so tired of them.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm pretty tired of it. I just don't like to see it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've seen them so much down here, I've just kind of tuned them out.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Pardon my expression, it's a peeing contest. That's what it is. Oh, this person did this wrong back then. This one's doing this right, you know. No one's perfect. That's why we're all human, you know?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know that this is politics, I know that this is part of the game, but do we really need to bash members of our own party?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No matter who you listen to, if you listen to all of them, they're going to tell you everybody's bad and everybody's awful and you just won't vote for anybody.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It makes me not want to vote for anybody, because you know, it's not what it's all about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEMON: So, there you go, Kyra. You heard it, makes them not want to vote. And they say, you know what, these guys are wasting their money, because when it comes on, I turn it off or I just tune it out. So, all the money, the millions of dollars that they're spending on these ads, they say it's not even worth it because they're so tired of it.
PHILLIPS: Don Lemon, never tired of all the politics, though. The good, the bad, the ugly; he's always on it. And tonight, just two days before the South Carolina primary election, as you just heard, the debate's happening right here on CNN. "THE SOUTHERN REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE" live, 8:00 Eastern, right here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: We are about five minutes away from the story that we broke right here on CNN, Rick Perry expected to announce that he is getting out of the run for the presidency.
Our Dana Bash joining us. I understand you've got some new information about if he may endorse another candidate, Dana?
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Kyra. I am told by a couple of sources who are familiar with Rick Perry's decision that he is going to strongly indicate that he is behind the candidacy of Newt Gingrich when he makes his announcement.
Now, this seems to be kind of fluid, because one of the sources I talked to said he's going to not fully endorse, but make it pretty clear that Newt Gingrich is his guy. Another source said that it may actually morph into a full endorsement. We'll have to hear how it actually comes out of Rick Perry's mouth in just a few minutes.
But the bottom line and the headline is that, you know, when we have been talking for so long about how the sort of social conservative vote has been splintered, with Rick Perry getting out and making clear that Newt Gingrich is his guy, that's good news for Newt Gingrich, not so good for Rick Santorum, who was hoping that he was going to get those votes.
Rick Perry didn't have a lot of votes, obviously; that's why he's getting out of the race. But you know, every vote matters, especially in that splintered coalition or section of the electorate in South Carolina.
PHILLIPS: All right. So, how much does his support -- how much will his support impact things for Newt?
BASH: You know, I mean, look, I think this is the case with anybody who gets out of the race, particularly someone like Rick Perry, who was in single digits in polls, that you know, obviously, the reason why they're getting out is because they don't have a lot of support.
But I think for Newt Gingrich, it's certainly symbolic because he has been on a roll for the past 24 hours or so with many, many polls showing that he's doing well. This just adds to momentum. And there's something that is hard to quantify about that in politics, Kyra, and it really, really matters, especially this close to a primary. So, the fact that this will give a boost to Newt Gingrich, it will be a big deal.
One other thing I want to point out that two of my sources told me is that Rick Perry also has told Newt Gingrich that he's going to campaign for him in the Texas primary. The Texas primary is April 3rd. So, you know, that might give you an indication of where Newt Gingrich thinks he's going to go, or at least try to go.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIPS: Dana Bash, great job. Dana, thanks so much.
Suzanne Malveaux, minutes away from that live news conference.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: This is going to be a wild two hours.
PHILLIPS: It just is getting more and more exciting.
MALVEAUX: This morning has been unbelievable.
So, we're going to take it from there.
