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Presidential Candidates Set to Debate; October Surprises

Aired October 03, 2012 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And roll the open. Here we go. Top of the hour. Thanks for being with me. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Huge, exciting, Super Bowl for all of us political nerds, whatever you want to call it. We are hours away from the first presidential debate.

You have heard the pundits, you have heard the pregame, but I'm about to show you what each man will say tonight in his own words. Think about it, it is easy to do. Just follow President Obama, follow Mitt Romney out on the campaign trail, so here now is what we're calling the debate before the debate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He thinks that if we just spend another $5 trillion on tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, if we get rid of regulations on Wall Street, then all our problems will be solved. And jobs and prosperity will trickle down on all of you and the deficit will disappear and we will live happily ever after.

There is only one problem with that. We tried that in the decade before I became president. It didn't work. Top-down economics never works.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know there are some people in this country that think that the government's role is to take from some to give to others.

I'm not talking about the effort to care for those in need. We're a compassionate people. We always care for those that have needs of one kind or another and help people get back on their feet. But he wants to redistribute.

And the idea is to try and level incomes. And that's a concept which is not entirely novel. It has been tried other places in the world. It has just never worked. The only system that has ever worked to create permanent middle-class prosperity is free enterprise and free people pursuing their dreams.

I have five things I'm going to do to get this economy going. And they're going to create 12 million jobs. Number one, taking advantage of our energy resources, our oil, our coal, our gas, our nuclear, our renewable, getting North American energy independence.

That will keep our gasoline prices more moderate. It will also provide us with a lot of jobs in the energy sector and in manufacturing, because when energy is less expensive, manufacturing will come home.

OBAMA: You can look at his plan and you can look at my plan. Because he wants to keep open these tax loopholes that encourage jobs overseas. I want to make sure that we're providing tax breaks for companies right here in America.

I want to help big factories and small businesses double their exports. I want more goods stamped with made in America. I want to create one million new manufacturing jobs in the next four years.

ROMNEY: Obamacare is point number one.

It is the example number one where he wants to put bureaucrats between you and your doctor. He believes that government should tell you what kind of insurance you have to have. He believes that government should have a board of people that tell you what kind of care you can receive. My view is we fight for freedom in this country. I do not want an intrusive, massive, larger debt-spending government that crushes the American dream.

OBAMA: They like to call it Obamacare. Well, let me tell you, I do care. I care about all the young people who are able to stay on their parents' plans now. I care about the seniors who are seeing lower prescription drug costs. I care about folks with preexisting conditions, who can't be denied care now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: The debate for the debate.

We are now, count them with me, six hours away and let's roll some tape here. Because we have some video of the president leaving Las Vegas, where he staged his last-minute preparations. There he goes, up the stairs. The president now on his way to Denver, the site of the first presidential debate that begins 9:00 Eastern.

With me now from the beautiful city, the Mile High City there in Denver, with a couple of things to watch for tonight, CNN political reporter Peter Hamby and our political editor Paul Steinhauser.

Gentlemen, hello.

Hamby, I want to begin with you, because, you know, we will take these in no particular order, but women and Hispanics, what are you talking about there?

PETER HAMBY, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, look, this is the debate about domestic issues.

If President Obama does not bring up immigration and women's health issues tonight, I would be shocked. Look, if you go to any poll, Obama has huge advantages over Romney among women and among Hispanic voters. Frankly these are things that are keeping him afloat in the poll numbers because he's in trouble with independents, he's in trouble when people are asked is the country on the right track or the wrong track. Romney's conservative positions on immigration and on things like abortion and contraception have really hurt him. Our CNN poll that came out yesterday had Obama beating Romney by a wide, wide margin. Romney was only hitting 26 percent among Hispanic voters in that poll which is devastating for his campaign.

And among women, just look at a poll out today from NBC and "The Wall Street Journal" in Ohio, where Obama is cruising. One reason is because Obama has a 17-point advantage among women.

Look at polls out today in Virginia and Florida. It is much tighter because the margin is tighter among women. So Romney has to come in tonight and answer questions about immigration and women's issues in a way that doesn't turn off voters.

Remember, in 2008, in one of those debates, McCain during a discussion about abortion made sort of angry reference to the health of the mother, he kind of used air quotes. And if you were watching dial testing, his numbers among women really tanked during that debate when he made that sort of off-handed remark and he went on to lose the election by 13 points among women.

So that's going to be something I'm going to be watching tonight, Brooke.

BALDWIN: It is not just the words that come out of their mouths, but it is how they speak, right? It's the facial expressions, it's the air quotes, it's everything else.

Paul Steinhauser, what about -- here I go my air quotes -- the presidential test? Who is considered more presidential? Does the president have the advantage there? He is the commander in chief after all.

PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yes, he's already been in the White House for three-and-a-half years. So I guess you could say he has the upper hand here.

But this is I think most important thing. Yes, one liners, zingers, sure. We will keep our eyes out for them and they could play a big role. But the important thing for both of these gentlemen is to act presidential. I guess you could say the ball is really in Mitt Romney's court here.

He needs to really do this more. He needs to convey to Americans that he is acceptable in the White House and they can be comfortable with him as their commander in chief over the next four years. So this could really start right off the bat. I think the tone will be set in the first half-hour. Most people watch usually the first half- hour, 45 minutes of the debate and then sometimes the numbers start to trail off.

But here is the tightrope that Mitt Romney has to walk and to a degree President Obama. They both have to act presidential.

(CROSSTALK) BALDWIN: They have to relate.

(CROSSTALK)

STEINHAUSER: ... be on the offense.

They have to relate. And they also have to be on the offense and kind of go on the attack against the other guy and bring it to the other guy. So, it is kind of a delicate dance. Be presidential, but also go on the attack.

BALDWIN: You guys mentioned the zingers.

Peter Hamby, how do you -- how -- if you're the other guy, how do you take the zing out of the zinger?

HAMBY: Well, look, a cutting one-liner -- there has been a lot of talk about zingers in the media, after "The New York Times" referenced it, Romney has been preparing one-liners for months. And the minute that Romney does unleash his one-liner, you know, I can be sure the political class is kind of going to joke and mock and elbow each other and say, oh, here comes the one-liner.

But a cutting one-liner in a debate can have an impact on the maybe more than 50 million viewers who are watching tonight and are not tuning into what people like us are saying on Twitter every day. They might think that has a big impact.

The problem with zingers is, it has been so roundly mocked at this point that if Romney does land a punch, the Obama campaign can come back and say he was just focusing these last few months on practicing sort of these one-liners. It's no surprise he got a good one in there. But this is about more serious things than zingers.

I think that's the predictable Obama campaign response in the spin room tonight if that does happen.

BALDWIN: I will be watching and I will be watching both of your Twitter pages. Because I want to catch the zing and the zing-less zings. Whatever. I just think it is fascinating. We will be watching it just like the Super Bowl we love to watch.

Guys, thank you so much. Paul Steinhauser and Peter Hamby, thank you very much.

Again, a quick reminder, of course, the debate, 9:00 Eastern. Please join us, though, at 7:00, all the pregame with the A-team on CNN, 7:00 Eastern.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: Some say it is more about style than substance. I will speak live with a debate coach who will talk to me about each candidate's strengths and weaknesses. I'm Brooke Baldwin. The news is now. (voice-over): From the Middle East to the middle class, the five events that could become October surprises. John Avlon and Margaret Hoover join me live.

Plus, since health care is a huge issue tonight, find out how each man can score a political point.

And after tonight, she's up, Candy Crowley moderating the second presidential debate. She will tell me the questions neither man has answered.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Mitt Romney and President Obama have not appeared on the same stage in nearly eight years. Did you know that?

Since they were both actually speaking at a white-tie Washington dinner, that was back in 2004. And you know we all have seen them tossing these verbal punches at one another from afar for months, but tonight it is finally face to face. The coin has been tossed. Romney won, which means President Obama will answer first. Romney will have the final word.

I want go straight to debate coach Todd Graham from Southern Illinois University. He wrote a CNN.com op-ed to tell us what the weaknesses are that we should be looking for I suppose that might be tripping up these candidates tonight.

Todd, welcome to you. We're going to play a couple of clips and we're going to talk through the clips and we're going to tell me what we should be looking for. Let's begin as it will be the president who will be first up tonight. We will see the president first.

Critics say, you know, he sometimes has a slow, stuttering approach with long-winded answers. Let's roll this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: When George Bush came to office, we had surpluses. And now we have a half a trillion dollar deficit annually. When George Bush came into office, our debt, national debt was around $5 trillion. It is now over $10 trillion. We have almost doubled it. And so while it is true that nobody is completely innocent here...

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: All right, debate coach, what did the president do right or wrong there?

TODD GRAHAM, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY: Well, that's it again. It is that slow, stuttering approach where he has pauses and gaps. His speech has more gaps than a Zapruder film. It doesn't play very well in presidential debates. He will be debating against Mitt Romney. Mitt is really solid, he's a very smooth debater. Every time the president has a pause, people might think the president doesn't know what he's going to say next. He's not prepared for the question. That's the problem in a debate.

BALDWIN: It's a fine line between pausing so everyone can understand what you're talking about and I suppose pausing too long.

(CROSSTALK)

GRAHAM: Oh, sure. It is also one of his strengths. He's a very thoughtful person. So if you like him, you will see the pauses as him being thoughtful. But if you don't like him, you will think he needs a teleprompter.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: OK. Mitt Romney, we both know debaters from both parties occasionally like to dodge questions. Is there an art to do so gracefully? Check this out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: You asked me an entirely different question.

NEWT GINGRICH (R), FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: Beats me. I don't know. Where are we at, John?

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Todd, what was that? What do you see there?

GRAHAM: That was a disaster. That was South Carolina, I believe. He had two terrible debates in South Carolina. There were the only two I said he lost. And he in fact ended up losing that primary to Newt Gingrich.

You just can't do that in debates. They were stumbles that he doesn't normally have. And I would expect him to have corrected those.

BALDWIN: And then it is not just the words, but it is the body language. And you have written in your op-ed piece that Romney sometimes has an -- if you watch, he has a bit of an awkward smile when his opponent is talking, right?

GRAHAM: He does.

You have to remember the camera is always on you even when you're not speaking. If they're saying especially ugly things about you or negative things about you, you shouldn't be smiling. It is this awkward smirk that he's sort of got. And I think it's just very off- putting. BALDWIN: You have to be self-aware constantly, constantly, constantly.

GRAHAM: Of course.

BALDWIN: And then you have the president, here is an example, we have an example of him raising his hands, pointing his finger, while his opponent answered a question. Wait for it, and you will see, the president do this. Good or bad move?

GRAHAM: I don't think it is a particularly good move. I have always been told to kind of, you know, keep that finger down.

BALDWIN: Fingers down.

GRAHAM: Yes. You don't know what's going to happen once you start pointing at somebody. It could go off. No, I think you keep the finger pointing away.

BALDWIN: Bottom line, who wins?

GRAHAM: I think it will be a great debate. I don't know who wins. I will tell you tomorrow.

BALDWIN: Way to dodge the question, Todd. Way to be a good debater. Todd Graham, thank you so much. We will follow up with you and see what you think tomorrow.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: And when tonight's debate turns to health care specifically, there are going to be in these 15-minute chunks topically, will the candidates be talking about your health or your wallet? We will show you why money is likely to dominate the conversation of health care tonight and where the political points can be scored.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Big on the agenda during tonight's presidential debate, health care, whole segment, all 15 minutes will be dedicated to this crucial issue.

And senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen is here to talk about, you know, where each candidate stands, how they can score political points.

So, let's just begin with where they do stand currently on health care.

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right, because their stands are so different.

BALDWIN: Different.

COHEN: Right, so different. Let's take a look at Obamacare, which we all know, but just the give people a refresher course.

BALDWIN: Refresher.

COHEN: Right.

It mandates, it tells nearly every American you have to buy insurance and it tells insurance companies you have to take everybody, even if they an expensive preexisting condition. And then when you look at what Romney's plan is, he has no mandate you have to buy insurance and fewer requirements on insurance companies, not nearly as many as Obama has.

BALDWIN: Watching Romney tonight, what does he do, what does he say to score political points?

COHEN: I think he's going to continue with this new attack that he's been doing.

He has a new ad out that says, hey, because of health care reform, the middle class is going to have to pay more taxes. He hasn't really taken this tone quite as much as he has recently. Let's listen to this ad a little bit.

BALDWIN: OK.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NARRATOR: And their plan includes a trillion dollars in higher taxes, even on the middle class. Mitt Romney and commonsense conservatives will cut taxes on the middle class.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: What he means there, Brooke, is that if you don't buy insurance, you're going to have to pay money to the federal government.

The Supreme Court called it a tax, so he is saying, look, Obama with all his health care reform, is raising your taxes. I expect him to hit that hard.

BALDWIN: Then how does Obama hit back?

COHEN: I think what Obama might do is he might say, gee, what is your health care plan, Mr. Romney? He has so few details. He did what he did in Massachusetts, but he's now sort of distanced himself from that quite a bit.

BALDWIN: Doesn't really talk about that so much.

COHEN: Doesn't talk about that. Says that was good for Massachusetts at the time, but for the federal government, he doesn't have a whole lot of details. For example, people with preexisting conditions, how will they get insurance? He hasn't laid that out in full detail. And I expect Obama will attack him on that.

BALDWIN: What about I would imagine Medicare? Medicare comes up tonight. Where do they stand there?

COHEN: Yes, because it has come up so many times, right. In this whole campaign, we have heard so much about it.

Romney will say, gee, Obama is cutting Medicare, and that's going to hurt seniors, which Obama denies. And Obama will say, but seniors will have to pay more for Medicare under Romney's voucher plan, which of course Romney also denies.

And it is interesting because they have been saying this for months. Let's look at the newest CNN/ORC poll. This is a really recent poll. Obama -- the question was asked who would better handle Medicare. And 52 percent said Obama and 44 percent Romney. That's a pretty big difference. It will be interesting to see if that changes after the debate.

BALDWIN: As we mentioned, these are 15-minute topical chunks, health care getting an entire solid chunk. After they answer the initial questions, that's a lot of time to get specific.

COHEN: That's right. That's really unusual. And it shows you how important health care is in this particular election.

BALDWIN: It affects every single one of us.

COHEN: It is.

BALDWIN: Elizabeth Cohen, thank you very much.

COHEN: Thanks.

BALDWIN: And now this breaking news here, breaking news in to CNN. We're getting word that Turkey has retaliated in response to this deadly attack by Syria. This news just coming in to us here at CNN. We will take you live to Istanbul, explain what is happening right now next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Breaking news here. We're going to talk about Turkey and Syria, because this is significant. This is the first exchange that we have seen thus far.

Here is what happened. Turkey has now hit targets in Syria in response to a mortar strike across the border today that killed five people. Here is the map and you can see where this happened. Killing five people in this Turkish border town.

We have Ivan Watson. He's been reporting in Syria. He's joining me live on the phone from Istanbul.

And, Ivan, explain -- tell me as much as you know and why this is a first. IVAN WATSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Moments ago, Brooke, the Turkish government announced that it carried out artillery strikes, guided by radar, against points in Syria and that this was retaliation for Syrian mortar strikes on a Turkish border town that smacked right up against the Syrian border.

It's a town called Akcakale, where five Turkish civilians were killed today, a mother, three of her children and a female neighbor. And at least half a dozen other Turks, as well as several police officers were also wounded in this incident. This town was shelled last week by Syrian mortars. And the Turks lodged a formal protest with the United Nations.

Now we have got a deadly incident here. And really for the first time now, the Turks announcing they are retaliating to what they're calling a provocation by the Syrian armed forces -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: This is incredibly significant, as you point out. This is retaliation on behalf of Turkey. Thus far, we have seen you talking about Turkey, talking about the Syrian refugees pouring in through the border seeking safe haven.

And now to think that this mother, three children and a female neighbor have been killed, did this, Ivan, did this just change the -- change the entire landscape here?

WATSON: Well, these two neighbors were friends two years ago. Now it is very safe to say that they're enemies.

The Turkish government has called on Syrian President Bashar al- Assad to step down due to his crackdown on his own citizens. And there have been a number of incidents between the two countries. Last June, Syrian anti-aircraft defenses shot down a Turkish military reconnaissance jet, killing two pilots.

Both sides disagree on where exactly that incident took place. But the Turks did not really fire back. They didn't use force aside from condemning that attack. The Syrians accused Turkey of arming the rebels that are fighting against Bashar al-Assad's regime.

So this is a very tense relationship, and there are voices here in Turkey calling for more significant retaliation in response to the death of these five Turkish citizens.

BALDWIN: How do the Turks feel, Ivan, when it comes to possible military intervention in Syria?

WATSON: I think there are a lot of misgivings, Brooke.

I think there are a lot of voices here that are afraid that Turkey could be dragged into a war with Syria. Opposition political parties have spoken out against the government's policy of supporting the Syrian opposition and supporting the Syrian rebels.

They actually accused the U.S. of trying to outsource Turkey to try to bring down the Assad regime. Those are charges that the Turkish government, of course, denies. In addition to the tension between the two neighbors and the fact that trade has completely virtually stopped, you have more than 93,000 Syrian refugees living in camps in Turkey and another 40,000 to 50,000 more, and that's creating a lot of political confusion and tension among local societies that are pretty worried about having so many refugees suddenly swamped into their communities.

BALDWIN: I'm looking at the scars on some of these children.

I know you have covered a lot of the children, these refugees in some of these camps fleeing for their lives into Turkey.

Ivan Watson, we're not going to go too far from you. Ivan, calling in from Istanbul after we've now seen this retaliation involving both Turkey and Syria here. Much more on the breaking news in just a moment.

But first, back here at home, it's called an "October surprise," a story, you know, poof, out of nowhere, that can change the dynamics of a presidential election.

John Avlon has five possibilities. Margaret Hoover responds. They're live. They're next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Thirty-four days until the election, what kind of "October surprise" could be lurking in the wings for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

For pure political speculation purposes, let's bring in our favorite married CNN contributors. Forgive me, you two. You got me all flustered.

Margaret Hoover and John Avlon, guys, great to see you, albeit in different cities. You're so far apart. She of the moderate conservative bent; he, decidedly independent. Both great to talk about all things politics.

So, John Avlon, let me just begin with you. I read your column in The Daily Beast sort of pointing out these five potential "October surprises," beginning with, you know, three words. You have Libya, Syria, Iran. What's the biggest threat?

JOHN AVLON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, look, I mean, you know, the breaking news right now is an indication of just how fragile, of course, the world we live in right now is and an external event can change the frame of the national debate in the weeks coming up to the election.

I think right now you're seeing increased scrutiny on the administration about their response and disclosures in the wake of the killing of our ambassador in Benghazi. There are going to be congressional hearings there.

Syria can heat up, as it appears to be doing right now. BALDWIN: Let me interrupt you because let me go to your wife.

AVLON: Yeah, please.

BALDWIN: Do you think, Margaret Hoover, that Mitt Romney should bring up some of those questions being called upon the administration when it comes to what happened in Benghazi?

HOOVER, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Look, I think that in the context of what is President Obama's larger Middle East strategy and what the Romney campaign refers to as a possible unraveling of it, I think it's absolutely legitimate to raise that in the context of all of it together and suggest that the president has had perhaps a failed foreign policy agenda.

BALDWIN: Go ahead, John.

AVLON: Can I just say that this is a domestic debate, so, you know, how they -- I'm sure the Romney camp will try to interject this because it's crucial, but they're going to have to do it in a way that doesn't clearly violate the focus of this debate. That's a difficult line to walk.

BALDWIN: And they are talking economy, you know. All these different chunks of the debate, 15 minutes, 15 minutes here and there, a lot having to do with the economy and let's talk about the October jobs numbers. That's one of your "October surprises."

They will be released just four days before November 6th. The big one that could be the big one, right, for both of you, you know, for voters heading to the voting booths?

AVLON: That's right. I mean, that's a known-unknown. You can set your watch to that one just days before.

And if it's a really bad jobs number, that's the last psychological impression those voters who are going to the ballot booth on Tuesday are going to have in their head about issue number one, the economy, so it's a very high-stakes jobs report.

BALDWIN: And, Margaret Hoover, let's talk about your piece on CNN.com because you called it Romney's best bet, be Mr. Fix It, and you many, many 'graphs in talk about something Mitt Romney is not talking about very much and that being RomneyCare.

Let me quote you. "Even more striking is Romney's biggest legislative feat, the one he refuses to talk about, RomneyCare. Mr. Fix managed to briefly bring the conservative Heritage Foundation and liberal lion Senator Ted Kennedy together to pass landmark healthcare legislation in his state."

Is he going to talk about it? It's sort of like dammed if he does, dammed if he doesn't.

HOOVER: No, he's got to talk about it, Brooke. They've got 15 minutes to talk about healthcare tonight. That's an entire segment. That's a sixth of the entire debate.

He's going to have to double-down and own it and here's what he can say. President Obama, in contrast to Governor Romney, actually is not running on any major bipartisan legislative achieve and Mitt Romney can look to his record and say, independent voters, you don't like the fact that Washington is polarized, that this president hasn't been able to change the tone, but in my state, I was able to work with an 85 percent Democratic legislature to get historic legislation through that even Ted Kennedy and The Heritage Institution -- Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, agreed upon.

BALDWIN: John, do you agree with your wife? Do you agree?

AVLON: I do. And, in this case, I do because I think this is the moment for the Etch-A-Sketch. I mean, Mitt Romney's got to tack back to the center.

He has been playing to the base. It's a losing strategy in the American electorate and this is one way to do it, to stress his bipartisan bona fides which are in a policy place that he may be uncomfortable with, but he's got to own.

BALDWIN: Margaret Hoover, John Avlon, do you guys at least get to watch the debate together or no?

AVLON: Sadly, no.

BALDWIN: No, no. All right. All right.

AVLON: Not tonight.

BALDWIN: All right, guys. Thank you very much. We'll talk next time.

Of course, want to remind you all, CNN's live coverage of tonight's debate begins at 7:00 Eastern. The debate, 9:00 tonight.

Much more on our breaking news here as we're getting word that Turkey has now retaliated in response to a deadly attack by Syria. This news just now coming in to us.

Senior international correspondent Nic Robertson who just got back from Damascus, capital city of Syria, happens to be here. He's going to head into the studio in just a moment. He'll explain what's happening, put it in perspective to us right now. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Want to let you know, we have breaking news here, internationally. Here's what we know and we just talked to Ivan Watson for us, just across the border from Syria and he basically explained that Turkey today hit -- excuse me, Syria initially hit Turkey in this mortar attack and, for the very first time, that then prompted retaliation from Turkey.

We know that five people were killed in this Turkish border town. He explained to me it was a mother, three children and a female neighbor.

But, again, he was talking about how that Turkey certainly fears now being just to the north of Syria, now dragged, potentially, into this civil war that's killed some 28,000 people since last March.

We are working on getting more information. Also, senior international correspondent Nic Robertson will be joining me in studio here in just a moment, so we won't go too far from that.

But I do want to talk politics here as we are just hours away from, as you know, the very first presidential debate of the 2012 election.

And while President Obama and Mitt Romney will certainly be, you know, duking it out for the White House, Democrats and Republicans are also battling it out for control of the Senate, as well.

And, today, as we continue this series here, we have our eyes on a race. This is a huge Senate race in Indiana, where tea party favorite, Richard Mourdock, is trying to hold on to a Republican seat against Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly.

And the Senate battle in Connecticut where former wrestling CEO, Linda McMahon is trying for a second time here to win that, you know, U.S. Senate seat. She's trailing Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy in the polls right now.

So, the gal who's been all over this for us this week is our senior congressional correspondent, Dana Bash, our guide to all these key, you know, Senate races.

And, Dana, I know today, you want to focus here on these two Senate races that are causing some surprising problems for both parties and that they have to defend turf they didn't expect to have to defend. Talk to me about Indiana first.

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORESPONDENT: That's right. That's a great example for Republicans. It was a Republican Senate seat. It has been held by Richard Lugar for decades. He, as we talked about yesterday, is a moderate and a tea party-backed Republican candidate, you just mentioned, Richard Mourdock, won the Republican primary and Democrats have been pounding him as too conservative for the state, which is used to having senators from both parties who tend to work across party lines.

He is running against a moderate Democratic congressman who this really playing up his centrist credentials and, so, this is a red state, but Democrats really think they have an "in" because of their candidate.

And I want you to look at the two ads run by both campaigns, fascinating and telling because they're both using the same argument, even the same imagery against one another.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Indiana has two paths. Richard Mourdock made Indiana government accountable and efficient, but Joe Donnelly's Washington path veers left. He votes for the Obama-Pelosi stimulus, a taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailout, even ObamaCare.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Richard Mourdock fights for tax breaks for companies that drive jobs to China.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Donnelly, it's my way or the highway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need less reckless partisanship and more Hoosier common sense.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Now, Brooke, I was out covering this race the night that Richard Lugar lost the primary. He certainly wanted to have another term, but he didn't get a chance to get one because his own party threw him out.

And it really is one of those states that, again, Republicans did not expect to or hope to spend money in because they have problems elsewhere, but they're having to now.

BALDWIN: A lot of money and, as you very well know, involved in some of these races and, so, that's Indiana.

Connecticut here, Democrats there are having the same problem Republicans are having in Indiana, correct?

BASH: That's right. Connecticut is historically a blue state when it comes to the Senate. Senator, there hasn't been a Republican senator from the state of Connecticut in three decades.

And this is a state where you have Linda McMahon who has, as you mentioned very, very deep pockets. She was not afraid to spend tens of millions of dollars two years ago.

She lost, but it also bought her some pretty big name I.D. in this state. She's running against a Democratic candidate, Chris Murphy who is a sitting congressman, but he's actually less known around the state and, so, she's really giving him a run for his money, enough so that Democrats are worried. They're spending campaign cash in a blue state. They didn't want to do that.

And, even more of a clue into how competitive -- how worried Democrats might be, some of their Super PACs or outside groups are spending considerable cash in the state of Connecticut.

Again, this is one that Democrats were hoping that they could kind of put off the table, but Joe Lieberman is an independent. He is retiring and they're having to spend money there.

And I want to just also kind of end with the big picture ...

BALDWIN: Sure. BASH: ... and that is reminding viewers the stakes here.

Republicans need four seats to take control of the Senate. If they lose Indiana, or if the flip side, if Democrats lose Connecticut, then it puts both of them, then it puts both of them, each of them at an advantage or disadvantage depending how you look at it that they didn't expect to be, so each one of these states really, really makes a huge difference.

BALDWIN: Dana Bash, we'll see you tomorrow with anther race. Thank you so, so much.

BASH: Thank you.

BALDWIN: And tonight's presidential debates offer up a slightly different format. CNN's chief political correspondent, Candy Crowley, has watched a lot of these debates.

She will be moderating the very next one, so she's going to walk us through what she's looking for, some of her veteran insight and also talk about tonight's format and what change we might be seeing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Political junkies, today is your day. Our debate coverage begins at 7:00 Eastern tonight on CNN. You have Barack Obama versus Mitt Romney tonight, officially, at 9:00 Eastern time and joining me now from Denver is CNN's Candy Crowley.

She will moderate the second presidential debate. That is coming up October 16th. Candy, huge, huge honor. We'll talk about that in just a second.

But first, let's talk tonight, specifically, you know, the format. Let me JUST play some sound because we have these six distinct segments. This is according to a member of the debate commission.

I'm sorry. No sound? OK.

So, do you think, Candy, that, you know, given the 15-minute chunks here and there that they're looking for substance and detail? Will that encourage -- the format encourage that?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I certainly would think so. Let's remember the first three, as far as I remember it, when they put out the debate subject, number one the economy, number two the economy, number three the economy, so you add that all up and I'm getting like 45 minutes on the economy.

Now, it's a big subject, but I do think that there is a chance there to go in-depth, but a lot of that depends on these two candidates. Are they willing to go in-depth? Are they willing to engage with each other about specifics?

Are they willing to kind of reveal their specifics? So, in some ways, it's up to them, but certainly the time is there.

BALDWIN: I mean, how can they not go in-depth? They can't just stand there and not say anything to fill the remaining, you know, 13, 12, 10 minutes.

CROWLEY: You'd be surprised. You'd be surprised how well politicians can fill time saying very little.

But I would think the opportunity is there and the pressure is there, particularly on Mitt Romney, but also on the president. There's a lot of pressure to say, OK, so how do you create jobs?

We know you both want to create jobs. We know you both don't think the other is doing it the right way, but what, specifically, are you going to do?

How, specifically, will you bring down the deficit? So, there certainly is a lot of room to put some -- and a lot of impetus for them to put some meat on the bones.

BALDWIN: OK. As we look for the meat, let's talk about something I know we've talked about that before, that being swing states and Romney really has whittled the president's lead to two percentage points.

We're showing these are Virginia numbers now. This is a poll released today by Marist College/"The Wall Street Journal"/NBC News, so a two-point lead for Obama down from five points last month.

Let me show you one more graphic. You're going to see Florida numbers. You know, similar story there. Now, a one-point lead for Obama, down from four points in September.

Could -- Candy, could this debate tonight really, you know, represent Romney's best chance to catch fire?

CROWLEY: Certainly. I don't think it's his best chance. I think it's the beginning of his best chance, if that makes sense.

I don't think we've seen -- we have seen times when debates have changed things, but there still is a lot of time and two more debates for these guys, plus a vice presidential debate, so it certainly can kick things off.

Non-incumbents, the challengers, do tend to sometimes fair well after that huge debate, so it's a huge opportunity. He can't blow it, but certainly, he can do himself a lot of good here.

But to make it a permanent amount of good, you've still got two other debates and whatever is said on the campaign trail and whatever happens across the world.

So, there's lots of things in this mix. Certainly, a good debate performance could push him ahead in a lot of these swing states which are obviously really critical. BALDWIN: You will be happy to know I talked to your friend who told me you guys go back 30-some years, Carole Simpson, the very first female presidential debate moderator.

CROWLEY: Yeah, she's great.

BALDWIN: Here are the pictures. This is from '92 and she said something that got us thinking. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAROLE SIMPSON, FORMER ABC NEWS ANCHOR: I'm disconcerted that Candy Crowley, who's a great political reporter, one of the best in the nation, I've known her for 30 years, she's not going to be able to ask her questions either ...

BALDWIN: The audience.

SIMPSON: ... so my feeling is that we are being marginalized. The women are being marginalized, either in doing the town hall debate with the people where they don't get to ask their questions or doing the vice presidential debate like my other friend, Martha Raddatz.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: When it comes to questions, I know you have many you would like to ask. I want to hear what you would be dying to ask either of these gentlemen. We'll get that answer on the other side of this commercial break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Back to Candy Crowley, CNN chief political correspondent. She will be hosting the second presidential debate October 16th, Hempstead, New York.

So, Candy, where I left you was, if you could ask Mitt Romney or Barack Obama one question, what would it be?

CROWLEY: You know, here's the problem, the siphoning down, which, when you're sort of looking at a debate, you're trying to kind of figure out like -- it sounds like an hour-and-a-half is a long time and it ends up not being that long a time.

The problem I think I'm having now, when I sort of sort through this, is, first of all, we know that the American people are interested in the economy, so a lot depends on what they say here to Jim tonight, where you go from there, what that question is.

But there are other questions I think and maybe it's because we're in Colorado, but there are questions, after we had the shooting in Aurora, Colorado, which, once again, brought up the idea of gun control.

Both men basically were in the same place and said, well, we don't need additional laws. To me, that's something that is an issue that maybe is not determinative for most people's votes, but it's an issue that's out there, so I'd like to sort of the things that haven't kind of bubbled up to the surface while at the same time you can't help but ask the economic questions.

And the fact of the matter is, I would love to say to them, how much power do you think the president actually has to sway the course of the economy? And what power is that?

Because it seems to me that one of the things you learn when you become president is kind of that leader of the Western world's not quite as powerful as it sounds. particularly when it comes to kind of trying to move an economy.

So, I'd love to have them both sort of look at that and to say listen ...

BALDWIN: And move a Congress.

CROWLEY: Yeah, well, exactly. We've talked about that before, you know?

I mean, the thing is you're going to have a Congress you've got to get through, so no matter what you think is a great idea, you've got to sell it to those guys.

So, how do you do that? Because, obviously, this has been sort of a problem in the first four years. It'll be a problem for Mitt Romney, as well.

BALDWIN: Candy Crowley, we will look for your pre-game and your post-game, of course, tonight out there in Denver. Thank you.

CROWLEY: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Thank you so much for joining ...

CROWLEY: I miss you.

BALDWIN: I miss you. I wish I were there. Thank you.

Before -- we have two minutes here before I need to turn you over to "The Situation Room." I want to follow up on our breaking news.

We have senior international correspondent Nic Robertson just sat down here at the table. Let's talk Turkey. Let's talk Syria. Syria hits Turkey. Turkey for the very first time hits back.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, where's it going to go? What are they hitting? How long will they keep shelling? These are open questions right now.

This is the first major escalation over the borders that we've seen. We've seen Syria shoot down a Turkish aircraft. We've seen shells land in Lebanon. We've seen shells land in Jordan over the border from Syria and they've landed over the border inside Turkey several times.

But now, for the first time, another country is going to shoot back. What's Assad's response going to be to that? I don't see him pulling back.

BALDWIN: Whose call would that have been to retaliate?

ROBERTSON: That would come from the prime minister. The prime minister's got a lot of political baggage tied up in Syria right now.

A lot of people in Turkey don't like the way that he's really come out against Assad, that he's got so many refugees in his country and he wants to win another election. And he's got to come out tough on this one.

BALDWIN: Talking to Ivan Watson, a moment ago in Turkey, he said the last thing Turkey really wants is to get dragged into a war.

ROBERTSON: And, look, it's happening. This is what we're seeing right now. How far will it go? This depends on the amount of shelling.

BALDWIN: And five people were killed in Turkey, correct?

ROBERTSON: That's what we understand, a woman and several children.

BALDWIN: OK. So, as we continue to watch, we'll watch reaction from NATO, also, I presume.

ROBERTSON: You know, the Turks are turning to NATO, as well. I think we can expect from NATO to hear sympathy for Turkey. I don't think we're going to expect to see them sending tanks from Europe or from the United States to help Turkey on this.

Turkey already has a very big, very capable army, but it's going to want to know that it's got the support of NATO if this escalates. You know, what if Assad puts up aircraft and starts targeting Turkey with aircraft?

BALDWIN: That changes everything, Nic Robertson. Thank you so much for joining me.

Thank you so much for watching. I'm sure Wolf will be all over this and, of course, debate night in Denver.

"The Situation Room" begins now.