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Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Killed In Attack In Iran; Israel Says It Targeted Hezbollah Commander In Beirut Attack. Israel: Beirut Strike Killed Senior Hezbollah Commander; Hamas Political Chief Ismael Haniyeh Killed. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired July 31, 2024 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, and welcome to CNN Newsroom. I'm Lynda Kinkade, we're following breaking news. The political leader of Hamas is Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly killed in Tehran. That's according to Iranian state media, which cites the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

You can see him here earlier today meeting with Iran's President just before the President's inauguration. Of course, he attended that and then he met with the Supreme Leader of Iran. In a statement, Hamas claims that Haniyeh was killed in a quote, Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran after that ceremony.

There's no official word from the Israeli military. When asked for comment, only a brief statement saying quote, they don't respond to reports in the foreign media.

Haniyeh was a longtime member of Hamas, joining in the late 1980s. And rising through the ranks over the years before becoming the group's political chief in 2017.

We're going to go live now to Haifa, Israel and CNN Jeremy Diamond. Of course, this Hamas leader was once the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority. Jeremy, give us a sense of the response from the Palestinians.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, make no mistake this is an enormous moment in this now nearly 10 month long conflict. Ismail Haniyeh was not only Hamas' political leader, but he was also one of the chief interlocutors at the negotiating table over these ongoing hostage and ceasefire negotiations. He was a key voice at that table. He was viewed as a more pragmatic voice at that table.

And now there are major questions about what the impact will be on the ceasefire negotiations and on the internal power dynamics within Hamas, but there's no question that overall among Palestinians, and particularly Palestinian leaders, there are outpourings of sympathy and praise for Ismail Haniyeh, including from the presidents of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, who, quote strongly condemned the assassination of the head of the Hamas movement, the Great Leader Ismail Haniyeh.

In a statement, Abbas also calls this a, quote, cowardly act and a dangerous development. And he calls on the Palestinian people to unite in the face of what he describes as the Israeli occupation.

Now beyond the impact on the ceasefire negotiations, beyond the impact on Palestinian political leadership, this is also a very tense moment in this region. And we have to ask at this hour, whether or not this will be yet another of multiple steps that we have seen over the course of the last week, that could potentially push this region deeper towards a potential all-out war. It is not that this is one step that would lead to that.

But when you think about the accumulation of events that have happened over the course of the last week, this is certainly a major, major question. Earlier this week, Hezbollah carried out this crooked attack, according to Israel on the Israel occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children in the Syrian Druze community of Majdal Shams. Israel within the last 24 hours responded to that with a targeted airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut that killed a senior Hezbollah commander. And now over the span of the same 24 hour period, Israel has apparently though it is not confirming or denying it has apparently carried out this assassination on Hamas' political leader inside Iran.

And so those are two very senior leaders of two key Iranian proxies being killed in the span of less than 24 hours. And you have to think, how will Iran responds, how will Hamas respond, how will Hezbollah respond to and this puts a region that was already very much on edge now teetering, potentially further off of that very, very dangerous cliff of escalation.

KINKADE: Yes, as you say, Jeremy. at significant 12 hours, really, that the fact that we've got the leader of Hamas assassinated in Iran, and less than 12 hours earlier, the military commander of Hezbollah killed in Beirut.

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We'd already heard from the U.N. and the U.S. after that strike in Beirut calling for Israel to use diplomatic avenues or both countries really. What's the response likely to be from the international community? No doubt with tensions this high, the international community must be on edge.

DIAMOND: Yes, well, as we saw after that Hezbollah rocket attack in the Golan Heights, there were calls for deescalation. There was an understanding from the United States in particular that Israel would have to deliver some kind of military response against Hezbollah, but there were also urgings to moderate that response to carry it out in a fashion that would not tip this region into all at war, a tip this long simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah into all-out war. And so you can make no mistake that in the wake of this there will

also be urgings on the other end for avoiding a further dangerous escalation. I assume that there will be back channel efforts with Iran, back channel efforts with Hezbollah as well as Hamas to try and limit whatever response will come here.

But there is no doubt that Hamas will carry out some kind of response for this. The question is, will that come in the context of its war against Israeli troops inside the Gaza Strip? Or will it come in the form of further rocket attacks against Israeli towns and cities? And again, what will Hezbollah do?

Hezbollah was already likely to retaliate for the killing of its senior, most military commander in the suburbs of Beirut last night. Do they feel compelled to escalate that response even further now that the leader of one of its key allies, a fellow Iranian proxy has been killed in an assassination in Iran? Just so, so many questions at this hour and developments that we're going to be watching very closely.

KINKADE: Jeremy Diamond our Jerusalem correspondent, good to have you on the case for us. Thanks so much.

We're staying on this story, and joining me now is Gregg Carlstrom. He is the Middle East correspondent for The Economist. He's also the author of "How Long Will Israel Survive? The Threat from Within." Good to have you with us. So within 12 hours, Hezbollah's military commander killed in Beirut and now Hamas leader assassinated what's your reaction?

GREGG CARLSTROM. MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT, THE ECONOMIST: I think the strike in Beirut, we all knew there was going to be some sort of Israeli retaliation for this rocket attack in Majdal Shams over the weekend. But I don't think many people certainly foreign diplomats that I had spoken to, were expecting that retaliation was going to come in Beirut, there had been a sense that the Israelis were going to strike perhaps elsewhere in Lebanon, but not strike the capital city.

And so I think that took people by surprise and then waking up this morning in the regions of the news that Ismail Haniyeh was killed. That was, I think, entirely unexpected. He's someone who had been on Israel's hitless. I mean, I remember back in October, even speaking to Israeli officials who said Haniyeh was someone that they intended to assassinate for his role in October 7, but it happening today it happening in the context of everything else this week, was very surprising.

KINKADE: And talk to us more about the rise of Ismail Haniyeh within the Palestinian leadership, and of course, Hamas.

CARLSTROM: He is someone who replaced Khaled Mashal, the longtime leader of Hamas, he started as the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and then left Gaza some years ago and move to Doha, where he had been based since he feuded a lot with Yahya Sinwar, the current leader of Hamas in Gaza, and they have been really at odds since October 7.

You've had Haniyeh and some of the other Hamas leaders outside of Gaza, pushing for a ceasefire. They're in favor of making a deal with Israel, releasing some hostages and at least temporarily halting the war in Gaza. Then you have Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, who has refused time and again, any efforts at a ceasefire deal.

So I think a big question now is what Haniyeh is that there's going to mean for those ceasefire talks going forward, whether by removing someone who was an influential advocate for a ceasefire that makes it more likely that the internal leadership of Hamas, the leadership in Gaza, will continue to reject the deal.

KINKADE: And let's not forget that there are at least 80 Israeli hostages in Gaza being held by Hamas. I'm sure their families are fearing the worst right now, given the death of Hamas as leader who was, as you say, a key to these negotiations for their release, who's likely to fill his shoes?

CARLSTROM: Right and those families have been worried for months now about the fate of the hostages being held in Gaza. Who's going to fill his shoes? I think that's -- it's a very difficult question.

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Right now normally Hamas would have a process for replacing its leader, there would be a process of internal elections where influential members of the group would vote in the Shura Council, the sort of governing body of Hamas would have some say in who was going to replace him.

But that's going to be very hard to do right now, given the context of the ongoing war in Gaza, given that so many leaders of Hamas have either been killed over the past 10 months or are in tunnels underground right now and very difficult to reach.

So I think someone is going to step in on an interim basis that might be Khaled Mashal, the former leader of the group, he might come back in as a sort of temporary leader until they can find a permanent replacement. But in practice, what this is going to mean is Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, who was already arguably the most important member of Hamas, he is going to have even more influence, I think, now within the movement, at least, inside of Gaza.

KINKADE: And the timing of this assassination is notable because it happened on the same day that the Hamas leader had attended the swearing in of the new of Iran's new president. He'd also met and sat down and had photographs where the Iran's supreme leader, given that this assassination happened in Tehran, how do you think Iran might respond?

CARLSTROM: It's incredibly humiliating for Iran, not just the timing of it, as you say, the fact that it comes hours after he met with the new Iranian president. But also it comes after months of Israeli strikes in Syria and elsewhere that have targeted a number of top generals and top military officials from the Revolutionary Guard, so humiliating to have someone now killed on Iranian soil.

And I think a reminder to the Iranian regime of how deeply penetrated it is, how many leaks there obviously are within Iran's security apparatus that allow things like this to happen.

On the other hand, if you go back all the way to October 7, Hamas when they carried out their attack in Israel, they thought they were going to get direct Iranian support and big support from Iran's proxies across the region. They didn't really get that. Hamas was disappointed that Iran was not willing to go to war on its behalf.

And I think something similar is likely to happen. Now there might be a face saving response from the Iranians. I don't know whether they'll do that directly, or do that through proxies find some way to lash out at Israel. But I don't think this is going to lead to a major escalation on Iran sparked, they are just not interested in going to war on behalf of Hamas.

KINKADE: The other response and reaction we're looking at right now is how Hezbollah or Lebanon might respond after Israel carried out that drone attack in Lebanon's capital about 12 hours ago, killing Hezbollah's most senior military commander, what sort of reaction response do you think we'll see there? Is it going to be this continuation of this tit for tat? Or could it be an escalation?

CARLSTROM: It could be an escalation. I mean, anything is possible at this point. But speaking to both Lebanese contacts and Israeli contacts over the past 12 hours, I think the sense is that it's likely to be a continuation of what we've seen so far.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has been very, very clear for 10 months that he doesn't want an all-out war with Israel, partly because most Lebanese don't want this and the country is very worried about the consequences of an all-out war with Israel.

And so, he has tried to for 10 months keep all of Hezbollah as attacks on Israel, calibrated the state below the level of all-out war. And I think that is likely to be the case. Again, there's been some very tough rhetoric coming from Hezbollah about attacks on Haifa, attacks on Tel Aviv, you know, warning Israeli civilians that their big population centers might be targeted, but I don't think we're likely to see, you know, a big barrage of long range missiles aimed at Tel Aviv or something like that. I think it will be a lesser response to try and keep this below the level of fully fledged war.

KINKADE: Greg Carlstrom in Dubai. Appreciate your analysis. Good to have you with us. Thank you.

We have more on that breaking news in just a moment. Iranian media reporting that the political leader of Hamas has been assassinated in Tehran. Stay with CNN Newsroom.

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KINKADE: Welcome back, I'm Lynda Kinkade. More on our breaking news from Tehran. Iranian state media report that Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated. Hamas issuing a statement saying that Haniyeh was killed in what it called a Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran.

On Tuesday, he had attended the inauguration of Iran's new president. Haniyeh joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada. He was named the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority in 2006, and was later named a specially designated global terrorist by the U.S. after becoming the Hamas chief in 2017.

I want to bring in CNN's Paula Hancocks live for us in debt in Dubai. Good to have you with us.

So, this is -- this was Hamas' a political leader assassinated in Iran. He of course, was leading the ceasefire negotiations and hostage relief talks. What are you learning about the assassination?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONENT: Well, Lynda, at this point we understand it did happen in the early hours of Tehran, and it was initially flagged by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president.

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He was there as on Tuesday that inauguration took place and we believe although we don't have exact timings at this point that it was Wednesday morning when this killing took place.

Now it is a very significant development and will have many on edge in the region, as Ismail Haniyeh had been a very significant part of the Hamas political leadership for many decades. You mentioned there, the fact that he started with the group back in the 80s, during the First Intifada, and he really highlighted his political leadership but in about 2003, which is when he survived an assassination attempt to buy Israel while he was with the founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, he had been the personal assistant to Sheikh Yassin so had been a significant figure within the group for some time.

Now, Sheikh Yassin was assassinated several months later. And we know that back in 2017, Haniyeh, became the political leader of Hamas.

Now, he didn't spend a lot of time in Gaza itself in in recent years. We know he has been living in in Doha, Qatar. We know he had fairly free rein to travel around the region as well. He had been seen many times in Tehran, he had traveled to Turkey as well, for example, but he really had been very visible, very vocal and a very significant part of the Hamas group.

So this has been felt very acutely within that group and also, within other Palestinian groups. Some reaction I wanted to give you, for example, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas has reacted, saying he strongly denounces and condemns the killing, saying it's a cowardly act and a dangerous development.

We have also been hearing statements from other Hamas members within the military and the political leadership saying that they are ready to pay various prices, another saying that this will not pass in vain. So of course, the question is, what is the reaction? Or what can the

reaction be from a significantly weakened Hamas at this time? And the question is also whether any kind of response would come from some of the other Iranian proxies as well, not just her mass in the region, Lynda.

KINKADE: And Paula, of course, it may be significantly weakened, but Hamas is still holding at least 80 Israeli hostages in Gaza, of course, Ismail Haniyeh was responsible for some of the talk the negotiations for the release of those hostages and ceasefire. What is going to happen to those talks now and any sort of negotiation who will feel that role?

HANCOCKS: Well, as we understand it, and certainly as the Israelis and the U.S. officials have been characterizing this. Yahya Sinwar is the most important person when it comes to these negotiations. He is the head of Hamas in Gaza, the head of the military leadership. He is believed to be in a tunnel somewhere under Gaza. And he was really the one who appeared to be calling the shots when it came to developments in the -- in this potential hostage ceasefire deal. And we knew that it took some time to be able to get any kind of response from him because he was believed to be hiding underground in Gaza.

But Ismail Haniyeh played a key role in this as well. He was considered an important indirect interlocutor with Israel, if you like, the fact that he was able to or believed he was able to come and go, as he wanted the fact he lived in Doha, Qatar. Qatar being one of the key mediators when it comes to this hostage and ceasefire deal.

So it is widely expected that this will derail the process, at least in the short term, that there will be no appetite from Hamas to continue speaking to Egypt and Qatar, the two mediators and also indirectly with the U.S. and Israel trying to hammer out this deal.

There were talks as recently as Sunday, trying to work to finalize the details that would see those Israeli hostages being released from Gaza and also seeing thousands of Palestinian prisoners being released in return and also a key point a ceasefire and allowing significant humanitarian aid into Gaza, which is desperately needed.

That we can only assume will be significantly derailed at this point, as I say Hamas, not sounding to have any appetite to be speaking indirectly to Israel at this point.

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In fact the statements we are hearing are very fiery, suggesting that there will be some kind of retaliation. Lynda.

KINKADE: All right, Paula Hancocks for us in Abu Dhabi. Good to have you with us. Thanks so much. We will talk soon. We are staying on this story. Mary Azan is a senior fellow with the International Institute for Counterterrorism Reichman University. She's also an Israeli military colonel in reserves. She comes to us from Toledo, Spain. Thanks for joining us. So, Israel had vowed to go after Hamas all its leadership after that

October terror attack. What's your response to the news of the assassination of the Hamas leader?

MIRI EISIN, SENIOR FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR COUNTERTERRORISM, REICHMAN UNIVERSITY: Terrorist leaders, terrorists themselves should not feel safe anywhere, Lynda, that's better for you and better for me. They shouldn't feel safe, not in the Gaza Strip the terrorists themselves and not in Iran. And Iran is a place where terrorists feel that they have a safe haven, we need to be sure that the Islamic regime of Iran, and those photographs of showing is Ismail Haniyeh sitting with the head leader of Iran, there are additional photos from the last few days where he's together with the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Mahala (ph) who's also into Tehran. None of them should feel safe.

KINAKDE: As you point out, Hamas leader was meeting just hours before the assassination with Iran's new president and the Iranian Supreme Leader. How do you think Iran is feeling given that this assassination happened on their territory?

EISIN: We're talking for the last nine and a half months about Israel against terror organizations like what Hamas did on October 7, but we don't talk enough about the Islamic regimes direct involvement in what's happening with Hezbollah on our northern border, what happens with the different proxies.

Iran is the one that's been sitting quietly in its own way, I'm not going to call it the octopus with all the arms, but it most definitely is the one that supplies ideas, all of the weaponry, training capabilities, and the Islamic regime of Iran should not be allowed to get away for by the world.

I don't know who did this kind of attack at the heart of Tehran. I do know that it takes a lot of audacity, a lot of intelligence, and that the Islamic regime of Iran should also be held accountable by the world for hosting the Hamas leaders that you're seeing here, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders, all of these different destabilizing terrorist organizations that feel safe in Tehran, they shouldn't feel safe anywhere.

KINKADE: The Hamas leader obviously Ismail Haniyeh was a key negotiator in terms of the hostage release talks and ceasefire talks. We know at least 80 hostages are still being held in Gaza by Hamas militants. How do you suppose their families react to this significant development?

EISIN: So when we talk in Israel, at least we talk about 115 people, and what you're talking about when you say 80 is the possibility perhaps of those who are still alive because we do know a lot that have pronounced dead but they were taken as dead bodies as bargaining chips by Hamas.

First of all, you're absolutely right. It will impact the negotiations. This is not a small event. Whoever did this, in that sense, has to take that into account. Ismail Haniyeh was not in the Gaza Strip. And I very much agree with what Paula was saying before that the one who calls the shots is Yahya Sinwar, who is in the Gaza Strip. His number to Mohammed Deif, at least according to Israel, in that sense, died or was killed by Israel in the last few weeks. At least he's disappeared. So these are different attacks that Israel is doing. As I said, terrorists cannot feel safe. Having said that we need to bring our hostages home.

KINKADE: We certainly do. And interestingly, just in April and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza had killed Ismail Haniyeh's three of his sons. At the time, he said that wouldn't impact the negotiations or soften Hamas' stance. But clearly this will affect negotiations going forward.

But overall, I want to ask you about the timing of not just the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran, but also the death of the Hezbollah military commander in Beirut 12 hours, less than 12 hours apart. What reaction do you think there would be within Israel and the Israeli government?

EISIN: Israelis are going to feel stronger at the moment we're showing in that sense because when it comes to the Hezbollah number two arch terrorist on every single list in the world and that capability to go after him Israel they're officially declare that we were the ones that attacked him. And in that sense, that is something which is much more official when we're talking about the leader of Hamas in Iran, in Tehran, that's a very different arena.

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Nobody in Israel has said anything but Israelis in general are going to feel the capabilities of the intelligence of the long arm against these arch terrorists that have been attacking us, not just in the last 9.5 months, in a horrific war.

And it's a horrific war for all sides, I realize that. But when it comes to Hezbollah, it's like nobody calls it out. And I think that Israel and Israelis are going to feel stronger, not weaker. There's an impact on the hostages.

My own opinion is that Hamas is not a reliable organization that you can negotiate easy with. And in that sense, you want to make sure the terrorists never feel safe, that's my own opinion. There are certainly other opinions in Israel.

LYNDA KINKADE, CNN ANCHOR: Miri Eisin, appreciate your time today joining us from Toledo, Spain. Thank you.

EISIN: Thank you.

We have much more on our breaking news in just a moment. Iranian media reporting the political leader of Hamas assassinated in Tehran.

Stay with CNN NEWSROOM.

Plus Israel also says it killed Hezbollah's most senior military commander. The IDF stroke on a Beirut suburb sparking fears of an all- out war in the region, just ahead.

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KINKADE: Welcome back.

You're watching CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Lynda Kinkade.

More now on our breaking news.

Iranian state media says an investigation is underway following the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. He was reportedly assassinated in Tehran after attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president.

Hamas says Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli raid on his residence. One Hamas official calls the assassination a cowardly act and says Haniyeh's killing quote, "will not pass in vain".

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says, Haniyeh's killing is a dangerous development.

Live now to CNN's Jomana Karadsheh who joins us from London. Just how dangerous are we talking, Jomana?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Lynda, the entire region has been on a knife's edge since this weekend since that attack on the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children and teenagers.

And then you saw what was Israel's response yesterday in Lebanon targeting a Hezbollah senior commander. And so you already have this region that has been on a knife's edge for a few days. It has been, obviously since October, concerns about any incident that could spark a wider regional conflict.

And now you have this, the targeting and the killing of Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, taking place in Tehran. This is what is so dangerous about this. This is what is so significant about this.

It is perhaps really something that Hamas and others in the region were expecting. Israel made it very clear, of course, we have to remind viewers here that Israel has not confirmed or taken responsibility for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. But all indications are that it was Israel that carried out this killing.

And you know, right now the question is, of course, there has been this expectation that they will be going after Hamas figures beyond Gaza. This is something that Israel has said from the start saying that all Hamas' leadership is in their sights from day one after October 7.

You saw them targeting and killing another senior figure from Hamas earlier this year in Beirut and now Ismail Haniyeh.

Of course, again, the concern here is this is taking place -- had taken place in Tehran. What kind of a response are we going to be seeing from the Iranians to this? What kind of response are we going to be seeing potentially from other Iranian proxies around the region.

And this has been always the concern. This is something that we have seen over the past few months that while you have that very significant and dangerous moment in the region where for the first time we did see Iran and Israel exchanging fire directly with those attacks earlier this year. It has been Iranian proxies across the region, whether it is the Houthis in Yemen, whether it is Hezbollah, whether it is the Iraqi militia groups in Iraq and Syria and, you know, carrying out attacks targeting Israel, targeting U.S. troops.

It has always been the concern that these groups might even carry out more attacks, that there could be further escalation at something that regional leaders have been warning could drag the entire region into all-out war that everyone has been so concerned about since October, Lynda.

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KINKADE: Ismail Haniyeh was not only the Hamas leader, but prior to that he was the leader of the Palestinian Authority. What sort of reaction do you think we're going to save from Hamas, especially given the fact that Hamas militants still hold at least 80 Israeli hostages in Gaza.

KARADSHEH: Look, I think, you know, the big question right now is what impact this is going to have on the ongoing negotiations, these ceasefire negotiations, to release the Israeli hostages.

But one would expect that this is not going to have -- this will have a very negative impact obviously on this. But if you look at these talks, they have stalled for months and months. There hasn't been much movement and much progress being made when it comes to these talks.

But again, Lynda, you would expect that the Hamas -- its leadership was expecting something like this. you know, remember, a few months ago the children of Ismail Haniyeh were killed by the Israelis in Gaza. And his reaction at the time seemed to be one of someone who was expecting this sort of response from the Israelis.

I think this is significant, Lynda, again that this took place in Tehran. Ismail Haniyeh was a face, an international face of the movement. He is someone who has been living in Doha, in Qatar. He has traveled to other places in the region, including Turkey, for example.

The decision of the Israelis to go after him in Tehran and not target him on the soil of U.S. ally, like Turkey or Doha, obviously, very, very significant. But we'll have to wait and see what sort of impact that this is going to have.

Of course, it will all depend on the response coming at a very, very dangerous and volatile moment in the region.

KINKADE: Yes, exactly. We have heard that Hamas have called him a martyr and say that his death will not pass in vain. We will continue to stay on this story. Jomana Karadsheh, good to have

you with us from London. Thank you.

Well, joining me now from Brisbane is Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan. He's also a former commander at the Australian Defense College. Good to have you with us.

I just want to get your response to the news that not only the leader of Hamas was assassinated in Iran, but also the top military commander of Hezbollah killed both within less than 12 hours.

MAJ. GEN. MICK RYAN (RET.), AUSTRALIAN ARMY: Yes. It's been an extraordinary day and a successful one, I guess, for the Israelis. Hezbollah military leader is the second key leader that the Israelis have killed in Beirut this year. They killed a senior Hamas leader there in January.

But I think both of them are quite dangerous for the security of the region. But in combination, it really could be jet fuel on a fire for the region at this point in time.

KINKADE: Yes and that is certainly a frightening prospect.

Ismail Haniyeh was, of course, a former Palestinian Authority prime minister. Close ties with Iran's leadership as we saw just before the assassination, he was spending time with Iran's new president and the supreme leader.

But of course he was involved in those hostage release negotiations. How can Iran respond, do you think, given its relationship with Hamas?

RYAN: Well, it will be interesting to see what they want to do here after the Israelis struck the air defense site in the wake of the Iranian missile attack on Israel. The Iranians really took the view of nothing more to see here.

I think this incident, however, will be a bit harder for them to do that. I think that it will place the new Iranian president in a very difficult position. He will have to probably take a hard line here.

So I don't see this being just turn the other cheek material for the Iranians. I think they will do something either themselves or with their proxies to strike back at Israel.

KINKADE: And of course, Israel hasn't claimed responsibility for the assassination in Iran, but it has taken responsibility for the death of Hezbollah's military commander. The IDF spokesperson saying, you know, we're not for war, but we are prepared for it.

I just want to play some sound from the IDF spokesperson after that strike in Beirut.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADM. DANIEL HAGARI, IDF SPOKESPERSON: Fuad Shukr was the right-hand man to Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader and his advisor in planning and directing attacks and operations.

Fuad Shukr was the commander responsible for the Majdal Shams massacre in which 12 children were murdered.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[01:44:49]

KINKADE: So we've had this so-called tit for tat between Israel and Hezbollah for many, many weeks, months really. But now, the death of Hezbollah's military commander how will Hezbollah retaliate or respond this time, do you think?

RYAN: Well, when they had this previous Israeli attack that had killed senior Hezbollah members and commanders like this, there has been a response of up to 100 rockets or more.

We've seen a slow escalation, but a definite escalation of attacks across the border since 7th October, they're now in the thousands (ph). So I expect we'll see something significant from Hezbollah.

But at the same time, they may wish to calibrate it so the situation doesn't get too out of control. We should note the Israelis have said this ends the matter in the wake of the death of those 12 children but both sides get a vote in this, unfortunately.

KINKADE: We did hear that the U.S. was given advanced notice of that strike in Beirut. The U.S. Vice President and presidential candidate, Kamala Harris spoke about it.

I just want to play some sound from her.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: What we know in particular is yes, it has the right to defend itself against a terrorist organization, which is exactly what Hezbollah is.

But all of that being said, we still must work on a diplomatic solution to end these attacks and we will continue to do that work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: What do you think the U.S. will do to reduce tensions in the region right now.

RYAN: Well, it's probably going to send more naval vessels to the region, one to try and deter a reaction from Hezbollah, but also positioned itself for any evacuation of citizens that might be required if something goes wrong.

Clearly, it will be talking to the Israelis to try and ratchet down tensions. But we should bear one other thing in mind. This could be an Israeli attack to try and break down the cohesion of Hezbollah in advance of any potential Israeli attack into southern Lebanon in the future as well. KINKADE: Yes, you make an interesting point. That that attack in Beirut that killed the military leader, of course, came after in retaliation for the strike on a football pitch in the Golan Heights on Saturday, which killed 12 children. It was the deadliest attack in Israeli-controlled territory since the Hamas attack back in October.

Lebanon's foreign minister said that this would surely lead to a war and a war against Lebanon is a regional war. That's certainly a frightening prospect, right?

RYAN: That's a terrible prospect. No one wants to see a war in southern Lebanon. I don't think even the Israelis want that even though they would be prepared for it. Hezbollah certainly wouldn't want it because they didn't do so well last time.

And so I think all sides will be now looking at this going -- how much further in this escalate before we stepped back from the brink that might be a far more destructive conflict than what we've seen even in Gaza.

KINKADE: Mick Ryan coming to us from Brisbane, Australia. Appreciate your time. Thanks so much for joining us.

RYAN: Thank you.

KINKADE: Well, Hamas is vowing revenge after the reported assassination of a top leader. We'll have the latest on our breaking news in just a moment.

Stay tuned.

[01:48:06]

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KINKADE: Hello, I'm Lynda Kinkade.

An update on our breaking news.

Hamas says the assassination of its political leader will not pass in vain. Iranian state media report that Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran after attending the inauguration of the country's new president. Israel says it does not respond to reports in the foreign media.

Haniyeh's death is sure to complicated Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations as he was heavily involved in those talks with Egypt and Qatar.

CNN political and foreign policy analyst Barak Ravid explains what this means for the ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL AND FOREIGN POLICY ANALYST: well, I think this is first the most significant Israeli operation against Hamas since October 7.

Ismail Haniyeh is, you know, militarily he's not that significant, but politically he's the -- you know, he's the political leader of Hamas and, you know, he won the internal elections within Hamas, you know, to get this job. He's is in charge of Hamas' international relations, and he's the key interlocutor for the Egyptian and Qatari mediators on the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

So his assassination will have significant influence on those negotiations.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: Well, earlier I spoke with Israeli journalist and filmmaker Shlomi Eldar. I asked him for his reaction to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHLOMI ELDAR, ISRAELI JOURNALIST AND FILMMAKER: I met Ismail Haniyeh in 1994. My first meeting with him. Ismail Haniyeh, I think he has been changed and here's the story of what happened to Hamas movement. He was one of the moderate leaders of Hamas, and he has been changed especially after the military coup in 2007. I think that now when we are taking Hamas leader, we shape it and designated that after October 7th all Hamas leaders are war crimes -- are war criminals.

What they've been doing, what they have been done -- this is, I think Israel must act against (ph) the Hamas leader.

[01:54:49]

ELDAR: But I think that today when I heard that Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated, it let me think that we've been left with the extremist leaders of Hamas like Yahya Sinwar and all other the military group.

But again, when Israel decided to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, this is a message -- a message to all Hamas leaders, no more, no more taking Israelis, no more taking hostages and no more murders, killing civilians in Israel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: Well, thanks for joining us the CNN NEWSROOM.

I'm Lynda Kinkade.

Becky Anderson will pick up our breaking news coverage from London after a short break.

Stay with us. You're watching CNN.

[01:55:44]

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