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CNN International: New Explosions In Lebanon A Day After Pager Blasts; Reports Of Wireless Devices Exploding In Lebanon According To Lebanese State Media; Lebanese State Media Reports Three Dead In Blasts; Health Ministry Reports One Death, 100 Injured. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired September 18, 2024 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.
RAHEL SOLOMON, HOST, "CNN NEWSROOM": Welcome to CNN. I'm Rahel Solomon live in New York.
We want to begin with our breaking news out of Lebanon. Just a day after that extraordinary coordinated attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, we are hearing of new explosions that happened just moments ago.
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That blast in Beirut set off panic amid a crowd attending a funeral for Hezbollah fighters. A security source tells CNN that the devices that have been detonated today are walkie-talkies. Lebanon state media says that there are reports of wireless devices exploding in several different locations. The army is asking people not to gather in areas where security incidents have occurred so that medical teams can reach the wounded.
We want to start our coverage off with Ben Wedeman, who is joining us now from Beirut. He is outside of a hospital. Ben, what have you seen so far?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're outside the American University of Beirut Medical Center, where yesterday they treated as many as 200 people killed in those pager explosions. Today, we haven't seen anybody arrive so far. Now, the Ministry of Health has said -- put out a statement saying that the initial toll of wounded today from this latest spate of explosions is around 100, with one person dead so far. Now, the national news agency, the official news agency, is also reporting three dead, killed in the Bekaa Valley to the east of here.
As you mentioned, the reports are today that the explosions are not happening with the pagers, but rather with what are being described in Arabic as wireless devices, or walkie-talkies, in this case. So, yesterday, it was pagers. Today, it's walkie-talkies. This is certainly spreading real concern and fear about what could actually come next. And keep in mind, of course, that with a few exceptions, the war between Hezbollah and Israel has been largely confined to the border area, and these -- the events of yesterday and today are really bringing home to people in the capital and other parts of the country far away from the border, just how dangerous the situation is rapidly becoming. Rahel.
SOLOMON: And Ben, what's the latest in terms of the scale of yesterday's injuries? How many Hezbollah fighters were hurt? We know that there were fatalities, as we said. Give us a sense of the scale of the fatalities and the injuries yesterday.
WEDEMAN: The numbers are pretty much the same as they were yesterday, around 2,800 people injured. The number of dead is not altogether clear. Now, Hezbollah, on its Telegram channel, posted 12 deaths between yesterday and this morning. But, it's not altogether clear if all of them were a result of the pagers. But, we do know that from the Ministry of Health here among the dead were two children in addition to, I believe, two women as well, because keep in mind that these people who were targeted by the Israelis are also members of the community. So, we saw the video yesterday of people in markets, suddenly a blast going -- happening at their side, with children and people in shopping markets and markets as well.
So, it really is not a situation where the combat, the fighting, the violence, the death, the injuries, is being limited to the war zone. It's essentially in all parts of Lebanon, and not necessarily involving just those involved, either directly or indirectly, in the fighting. Rahel.
SOLOMON: Yeah. And Ben, I mean, you have spent the greater part of the last year, since October 7th, in Lebanon. We're looking at this shot. I know you can't see it, but we're looking at this shot in Beirut. You see what appears to be some sort of large military vehicle. You see the press there. Just give us a sense of the feeling on the ground there, as you said. I mean, we've been seeing these cross-border hostilities practically since October 7th. But, for these type of attacks to impact civilian life there, what are things like on the ground there?
WEDEMAN: People are nervous. People are nervous. They -- now, keep in mind that more than 100,000 civilians have had to flee their homes in the south of Lebanon along the border.
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But, in cities like Beirut, if you don't have relatives in the south, life has been fairly normal. But now, suddenly, that feeling of distance from the danger has suddenly changed. The fact that an ordinary device like a pager, although, obviously a pager is a little antiquated at this point, but walkie-talkie, the question is, people are wondering, what next? Are cell phones going to start exploding as well? There is a real sense of vulnerability, because, as I said, most people living far away from the border feel that they can go about their lives in a fairly normal manner. That has changed. Suddenly, you don't know where the danger could come from. Perhaps the person who is right next to you in line at the supermarket, suddenly his pocket is going to explode as his pager or his walkie-talkie or whatever explodes.
So, it really has shattered what was an illusion of normalcy in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, far away from the frontier with Israel.
SOLOMON: Yeah. Ben Wedeman, we'll check back with you soon. Thank you for the report.
I want to now bring into the conversation CNN Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst, John Miller. So, John, what are you making of this? I mean, I've seen some reporting that sort of questions whether this was tactical, perhaps, but strategic. I mean, what do you make of this?
JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Well, Rahel, this is a second wave. The preliminary reports that CNN is working with right now indicates possibly three dead among the injuries today. Of course, we'll watch those numbers closely to see if they go up or down. That would be on top of what Ben was talking about, which is perhaps a dozen killed yesterday and many, many more injured.
But, by waking up this morning and seeing that there is a new wave of attacks coming from within Hezbollah, coming from their own devices, really gets to the core of what you asked, is it tactical or is it psychological? And the answer is, as an intelligence operation, it's both, the idea of driving Hezbollah away from its phones, because their phones are compromised by Israel's ability to listen in. It takes them to plan B. Well, we'll use the pagers. Then the pagers are turned in by an intelligence operation turned into weapons that are unleashed against Hezbollah yesterday. And they think, well, OK, let's go to plan C, the walkie-talkies. And if that is the case, which is what is exploding today has been reported as walkie-talkies, then plan C is compromised.
The tactical piece is they're taking a physical toll on Hezbollah operators. The psychological piece is the organization has to be set back on its heels, saying, first our phones, then our solution to pagers, now the walkie-talkies. Is the key fob I use to unlock my car going to explode in my hand? Is there something in my computer? Is our entire procurement operation, and one of our guests summed up they buy a lot of stuff, everything from missiles to explosives to pagers to cell phones to cars to these things in their process, is our entire procurement process compromised? That's what they have to be wondering today, and that's got to take a psychological toll at the people at the top of the organization, the middle and even the bottom, because they're the ones carrying these tools.
SOLOMON: Yeah. And John, I wonder, is it enough, and obviously we're still learning sort of just how deep this operation actually impacted Hezbollah, but is it enough to, as you lay out the communication here, is it enough to essentially paralyze communications among members of Hezbollah, and if so, I mean, the type of impact that could have to the organization? MILLER: Well, it certainly disrupts the speed of communications,
because what they would be devolving to at this point is either going back to their telephones, which they understand is compromised by Israeli intercepts, the same way the American NSA works, or they have to really go old school, which is now you're dealing with writing notes, handing them to couriers on scooters, having them go back and forth to the people that the messages are for, or calling physical meetings. And the problem with calling physical meetings is once you bring your critical leadership and commanders into one place because you can't afford to communicate electronically, you have now set the target for a missile strike that can take out all your key people.
Not a good day for Hezbollah. They're making hard decisions, and none of them have good potential outcomes.
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SOLOMON: And John, I mean, it is our reporting at CNN that it was the Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad, and the military and this joint operation behind this attack. Is it your sense that they would have thought out, as you lay out, plan A, plan B, plan C, but then also any possible retaliation before they sort of plan this operation?
MILLER: So, the Israelis would have gamed this out in a number of different scenarios. And some of the questions that we still have today is not what did they do and how did they do it. That's coming into a little more granular focus. As we see, they clearly penetrated the supply chain of the delivery of these devices. But, why did they do it now? What was special about yesterday that they decided to send that push message, press that button that caused all of those Hezbollah operators carrying these devices to be injured or killed?
And the answer may have been as simple as Hezbollah, of course, has been firing missiles into the north of Israel. They've caused the evacuations of cities and towns along the border, people who are living miles and hours away in Tel Aviv and those places have not been repopulated by the residents. They are essentially being held hostage in a different way, which is they can't go home.
This is potentially an Israeli signal to Hezbollah that these things will come at a cost, and we can hit you where you don't expect it, and we can do it at the time and place of our choosing. The wait may have simply been to monitor the process of the distribution of these pagers to make sure that they waited till most of them, thousands had been given out and assigned to people so that it -- so that the operation would have the maximum impact.
SOLOMON: Really interesting. And as you point out, I mean, the strategic aim may have been the psychological impact of all of this.
John Miller, good to have you. Thank you, John.
MILLER: Thanks, Rahel.
SOLOMON: Now let me bring in CNN Chief International Security Correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, who is in London with more. Nick, it was about 24 hours ago that you and I had the conversation about yesterday's or Tuesday's attack. Give us a sense of what's the latest here, and from what we can tell, the differences between Tuesday's attack versus today's attack.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. From what we know now, this seems to be smaller in terms of scope, but I think that may also be down to the source of the information about how many places were targeted, because these walkie- talkies, who do appear to have been predominantly the focus and the source of these explosions, will be carried by Hezbollah members, essentially meaning that Hezbollah, the militant group itself, will be behind the information we learn about how widespread indeed they were. 15 to 20 in southern Lebanon, according to a Lebanese security source speaking to my colleague Tamara Qiblawi, and 15 to 20 in the southern suburbs of Beirut, most likely Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold there.
And in fact, AFP showing images of the impact of one of these blasts on what looks like a funeral procession for somebody indeed killed just yesterday by one of the exploding pagers, the chaos caused by this second wave of blasts. Now, I think we'll learn a lot more in the hours ahead as to exactly if it's just walkie-talkies that detonated. There are some suggestions that other devices may have been indeed impacted as well.
But, as I say, it seems like a smaller wave, but it again suggests that the supply chain of Hezbollah has again been targeted. I think it will very hard to get an ordinary walkie-talkie just to explode without implanting some kind of device inside of it. But, indeed, how they managed to get these to detonate? Well, it seems to be a roughly similar time. We have an eyewitness report from a funeral in Dahiyeh saying that it was just after three o'clock that this -- one of these explosions happened, taking one of the victims; arms off from the blast. So, that in itself suggestion that we are talking about almost exactly 24 hours between these two waves of blasts.
But, many more details coming in here, and from the social imagery that we're seeing, not all of it verified by us here at CNN. A lot of it suggests explosions of a degree in magnitude larger than yesterday's pager blast, which were tiny. But, of course, owing to where people keep their pagers, remarkably effective in the volume of injuries, 3,460 operations that were required, 12 dead from that wave. The first information we're hearing from Lebanese health officials at this stage is one dead and 100 injured from this second wave. But, I'm sure those numbers will alter in the hours ahead, Rahel.
SOLOMON: Yeah. Nick, I mean, you rightly point out there are still a lot of questions. I want to pose a question to you that John Miller just mentioned, the timing of this. Are we any further along in understanding why now?
WALSH: I think we will learn why now in the next 72 hours.
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If this continues and we see potentially targeted strikes by Israel against Hezbollah leadership, essentially suggesting that maybe they waited for this disarray, this chaos for people to make mistakes and expose where they are, then I think we can perhaps begin to divine a more sophisticated, longer-term plan here. If we see the Israeli military moving on specific targets in southern Lebanon, then this may well be the prelude to that, and designed to cause chaos in their communications network and their command and control. Right now, Hezbollah is going to be wondering, what communication device is it safe for them to use, and who at the other end is going to be unharmed? That's a huge impact on morale, certainly, even for an organization with a disciplined focus and training and battle experience of something like Hezbollah.
But, I think it's also important to remind people there could be other quite mundane reasons as to the timing. Some of it might be for Israeli domestic political consumption, cabinet infighting, the future of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Maybe that somehow played a role in the timing of this. Or it may be something much more mundane, like these devices that appear to be dispatched and circulated months ago. Maybe there was a reason, technically, why they had to be used within a certain timeframe. Unclear. Maybe, as John suggested, finally, the distribution of those devices was indeed complete.
I remember hearing one of the videos that circulated yesterday, talking about one of the victims, whether or not they had an old one or a new one, perhaps suggesting that these were distributed by Hezbollah themselves, and maybe the new or the old ones. Can't tell you which one was specifically the one that detonated. So, a lot to be answered here. But, it's really time that's going to let us know as to whether or not this is a prelude to a wider Israeli operation.
I think one thing we can be reasonably certain of, Rahel, here is that we have a militant group in Hezbollah that are in disarray right now, that will probably struggle to come together with something cohesive and sustained as a retaliation. But, that doesn't mean necessarily that we're not going to see them feel a sense of weakness, fear of their relevance, fear about their morale, and then potentially respond in a more irrational way, unlike Hezbollah, who are very calculated, calm and capable of patience, but a very volatile moment indeed just growing in the 24 hours. Now, the second wave is upon Lebanon.
SOLOMON: And the next 72 hours, as you point out, critical to understand what this was and what happens next.
Nick Paton Walsh live for us there. Nick, thank you.
We want to take a quick break. We will be right back with more coverage on the explosions in Lebanon. Stay with us.
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SOLOMON: All right. Welcome back. And back now to our breaking news. A new wave of explosions is shaking Lebanon. State media says at least three people have been killed after wireless devices blew up. A security source tells CNN that the devices involved today are walkie- talkies. In a highly coordinated attack across Lebanon yesterday, hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah were triggered to explode, killing at least 12 people. Let's get more now from Kylie Atwood in Cairo and Jeremy Diamond in
Tel Aviv.
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Jeremy, let me start with you. Israel not commenting, but as we've said, CNN's reporting is that the intelligence agency and the military were behind this joint operation. What more do we know about their involvement?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. And to be clear, Rahel, my reporting is that we know that Israel was behind yesterday's attacks with the pagers. We do not yet have confirmation that Israel was behind what appears to be a second wave of attacks, targeting, once again, wireless devices, albeit of a different sort. It appears that today's devices were by and large walkie-talkies, several dozen blasts in the southern suburbs of Beirut, as well as further south in southern Lebanon, another couple of dozen blasts there.
The Lebanese Health Ministry now saying that one person has been killed in these blasts. More than 100 people were injured in this second wave of explosions. And certainly, the -- it does suggest that Israel would once again be behind these blasts, but we do not yet have confirmation of that. And so, we're going to be very cautious with that until and if we do indeed get that confirmation. But, certainly, this is once again another incident that raises the temperature in this region, already in the wake of yesterday's attack, which was larger in scale, several thousand pagers exploding nearly simultaneously, more than 2,800 people who were injured, 12 people who were killed in that attack yesterday, that already prompted vows of retaliation from Hezbollah.
And so, once again, now we are already getting some indications, including from one Hezbollah lawmaker who is saying that Israel will pay a price for these continued attacks. And we know that Israel has been making preparations for war already well before these attacks. We have seen tensions sky high in this region over the summer, in particular in the wake of the assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr in late July. That sent alert levels, preparedness levels very, very high.
Today, we learned that the Israeli military has diverted the 98th Division away from Gaza towards its northern front with Lebanon in preparation for the possibility of all-out war with Hezbollah. But, we have seen these moments in the past where tensions have soared, and yet we have also seen that ultimately they have not resulted in that all-out war. And so, it is very difficult to know in this moment, even as those tensions are rising, whether or not we are going to see something different from the past, or a repetition of the cycle that has occurred over the course of nearly the last year since Hezbollah joined Hamas in its attacks on Israel, a day after the October 7th attacks, and beginning to fire rockets on northern Israel and Israel continuously bombarding southern Lebanon, in particular, over the course of these last nearly 12 months.
One major question, of course, now, why now? Why did Israel choose to carry out this operation at this very moment? There are a number of potential theories, some reporting, though, perhaps most convincingly, indicating that Hezbollah members had begun to suspect that some of these devices had been tampered with, and therefore Israel had a decision to make whether to carry this out simply as a kind of moment of opportunity or to hold off because the kind of bigger strategic thinking here had been perhaps to detonate these pagers as part of the beginning of an all-out war, as a way to destabilize Hezbollah in the opening moments of such an eventual war. For now, that war is not in the offing, but of course, those tensions are high, and it certainly could be.
SOLOMON: Yeah. They remain high even after this event. Jeremy, thank you.
Kylie, let me bring you into the conversation. You are in Cairo, as is the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. What's the U.S. saying and how are they reacting to this attack?
KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN U.S. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Secretary of State just had a press conference here, and he said that the U.S. did not know about these incidents, nor were they involved in these incidents, making it very clear that this attack on these pagers, these Lebanese Hezbollah pagers, was not something that the U.S. had endorsed. So, we'll watch to learn more exactly about what the U.S. knew and when it knew it. But, this news was breaking, Rahel, as the Secretary of State and his team were flying over here to Egypt for these meetings that he is now having in Cairo.
Of course, Israelis have taken provocative action when the Secretary of State has been in the region in the past. That isn't something new. But, this specific action is raising concerns among U.S. officials, as we've been hearing for some time, but in a more pronounced way now, about the possibility of this turning into a regional conflict, which the U.S. has been warning against, trying to get out and defend against actually occurring for quite some time now.
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The Secretary of State said earlier today that in response to these pagers exploding, he encourages all parties not to take steps that escalate the situation further, effectively saying that this was an unhelpful set of actions that we saw occur. And so, we will watch to see what more the U.S. says on this, because he also said that the United States is in a fact-finding mission right now, trying to figure out exactly what went down, and what the U.S. assessment of this actually is. He wasn't able to give an assessment, for example, in terms of how Hezbollah operations might be impacted by this specific attack, at least not just yet.
So, this is an area we continue to watch, as the Secretary of State called for the need for political will on both sides to try and continue advancing those efforts when it comes to a ceasefire and hostage release deal, both of which we have not seen any actual forward movement for quite some time now. Rahel.
SOLOMON: Yeah. All right. Kylie Atwood live for us there in Cairo. Kylie, thank you. Jeremy Diamond, our thanks to you as well.
I want to now bring it to the conversation Fawaz Gerges. He is a Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, and is also the author of "Making the Arab World", and he joins us live from Amman, Jordan. Do I have you?
FAWAZ GERGES, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, LSE: Yes.
SOLOMON: OK. Good to see you.
GERGES: I can hear you.
SOLOMON: Thank you for being here. Talk to us a little bit about just the strategic implications. I mean, since October 7th, we have seen these cross-border skirmishes. These hostilities have remained, right? They've sort of simmered. And now, after these last two days, these last two events, I'm wondering how you see that impacting the region.
GERGES: Well, I mean, Antony Blinken in his press conference today, he has made it very clear that unless a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, the risk of all-out why the regional conflict persists. Even the Americans believe that the only way forward is to end the war in Gaza. And what this tells you is that really it's -- the American foreign policy has failed. It has failed to really bring about a ceasefire in Gaza. It has also failed to prevent the risk of escalation, not only between Israel and Hamas, but between Israel and Lebanon and probably Israel and Hezbollah.
Look, what has happened in the past two days, I think, represents one of the greatest strategic breaches of Hezbollah security decision- making, communications, massive number of casualties, not just Hezbollah, as you know, many Lebanese civilians were either injured or killed, including two children, because many of these devices were in supermarkets, in hospitals, in shopping places. The reality is, I mean, I think Hezbollah is being rattled, the lack of now, chaos, volatility that Israel seems to have infiltrated the -- its communication systems.
But, just for your own viewers, Hezbollah has been planning for this particular moment for decades. Even if Hezbollah loses all its communications, its armed units are sovereign, independent units. They can -- I mean, they have the information and they have the training and the skills to basically act on their own, point one. Point two, so, tactically, Israel has really achieved a major, major blow against Hezbollah, but strategically. What are the strategic advantages that Israel has achieved in the past two days? Will the returns of the 50,000 Israeli citizens, will they return to the northern part on the Lebanese-Israeli borders? Will Israel basically break the will, the political will of Hezbollah? Will Hezbollah surrender?
All these questions, I mean, I think Israel really is achieving major tactical, I mean, victories, both in Gaza and the various fronts, because remember, I mean, we are talking about Israel, one of the most powerful armies in the world, not only powerful army supported by the United States, but also in terms of intelligence, military, I mean, all kind of technological military advances. We're talking about Hezbollah. It's a powerful military organization, but it's a very humble organization in terms of security and technology and intelligence.
But, at the end of the day, my take on it is that Hezbollah will never surrender. My take on it is that a war with Hezbollah will undermine Israel's security further. In fact, not only will the 50,000 Israeli citizens not to return to their homes in northern Israel, in fact, you're going to have up to probably a million Israeli displaced people if war comes between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Israel can do a lot of damage. It can destroy the infrastructure in Lebanon, but it cannot win a war, because a war against Hezbollah is a qualitatively and strategically different from the war against Hamas. So, the reality is, Israel is basically compiling tactical, I mean, breakthrough, but we are still at a strategic impasse. And the reality is this particular strategic, it could be really reaching now a tipping point, a tipping point that we -- this is the most dangerous moment that we have seen since October 7th, that the moment where Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah basically, not only are miscalculating, but basically go for all-out war, which will bring about not only Iran and its allies, but even the United States and Britain and its allies as well.
So, this is a very, very dangerous moment, and the Americans, sadly, the Biden administration, has really failed to basically bring about de-escalation and the end of the bloodletting in Gaza.
SOLOMON: So, what would it take to actually bring about de-escalation? And I actually want to follow up to something you said in terms of Hezbollah has been preparing for something like this for decades, but one of the things is that they still will be able to act on their own. When you say that, do you mean that they will be able to regroup and go about their operations as if this had not happened? Or do you say that to mean that they will be able to regroup and perhaps be in a space and on a place, in a position where they are operationally capable of a response?
GERGES: I'm talking about -- you and I were talking now. Every single operational unit of Hezbollah is independent. Acting is operationally functional. The fact that the loss of communication does not really make it -- it does not really mean that Hezbollah will not be able to really act operationally, will not be able to resist, will not be able to attack. You have independent sovereign units, even though you have connections and links and you do have a top down decision-making process, but Hezbollah has been training for decades to act in terms of really guerrilla warfare, to act as an independent theaters, whether you talking about southern Lebanon, whether you are talking about south Lebanon, whether you are talking about the Beqaa Valley.
So, the fact is that Hezbollah has been rattled in the past two days. It does not really mean that Hezbollah is not functional, that Hezbollah is not lethal, that Hezbollah is not potent. This is really delusional. If -- and I don't think Israeli leaders or American leaders even suggesting such a thing, most of us talking heads talk about this.
Secondly, this -- the second point what I'm trying to say is that I don't really understand the strategic end game of Israel. What is the strategic end game? When President Biden's envoy, a few days ago, he went to Israel, he has made it very clear. He told his Israeli counterparts that if you go for all-our war against Hezbollah, your goal of returning your citizen to the borders area will not happen. Even the Biden administration, American officials had been pressing on their Israeli counterparts that an all-out war against Hezbollah not only will bring about probably an all-out wider regional conflict, but will undermine Israel's securities in the long term.
What I really trying to say analytically, by the way, Israel can start a war, but it won't be able to end the war on its end. It will never have security and peace, because Hezbollah will fight for years, and Hezbollah's allies will join the front in Lebanon. Remember, Lebanon is not isolated like Gaza. You have Syria. You have Iraq. You have Yemen. You're going to have hundreds of thousands of fighters coming into Lebanon, and the supply of missiles that -- in a way, even if Israel achieves, have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah will be able to fire tens of thousands of missiles from many parts of its areas in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley.
So, a wider regional goal does not really serve the interest not only of Lebanon and Hezbollah, but even if Israel, and the Americans know it. The only thing about the Biden administration is that really it -- the Biden administration, and I am not exaggerating, it has failed dismally to bring about the end of the war in Gaza and to bring about the end of the risk of escalation. And if you ask me why? Because it has not really used the leverage that it has on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who basically wants forever war for a variety of reasons.
SOLOMON: Yeah. I mean, certainly the optimistic tone from U.S. officials, as they conducted these ceasefire talks, has all been missing in the last few months.
[11:35:00]
Fawaz Gerges, we will leave it here, but thank you for your insights and perspective today.
We're going to take a short break. We'll be right back with more.
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SOLOMON: Welcome back. You're watching CNN Newsroom. I'm Rahel Solomon live in New York.
An update now on our top story, a second wave of explosions is shaking Lebanon today. State media say that wireless devices have been blowing up. The Health Ministry reports that at least one person has been killed and at least 100 injured. A security source tells CNN that the devices involved today are walkie-talkies. Yesterday, hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah exploded, killing at least 12 people, including children. Let's get right to Ben Wedeman, who is joining us now from Beirut. He
is outside of a hospital where patients from yesterday's attacks are being treated. Ben, give us a sense. I mean, we just sort of outlined the latest on the death toll from what we know of today's explosion. Just give us a sense of what's the latest from where you are.
WEDEMAN: Yeah. We're outside the American University of Beirut Medical Center where they treated as many as 200 people from yesterday's pager blasts. Now, we've seen reports. We've heard from Lebanese security sources that as many as 15 to 20 explosions happened today in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah has a strong presence, in addition to a similar number of blasts in southern Lebanon.
Now, as you mentioned, it seems that the focus of today's blasts are walkie-talkies, or as they're described in Arabic -- in the Arabic media, as wireless devices. The Health Ministry saying that the initial number of injured is around 100 and at least one dead, but we're also getting other reports, still unconfirmed, of additional fatalities.
Now, just a moment ago, we spoke to a surgeon who actually arrived with us on the same plane in Beirut this morning. She has been in this hospital for about seven hours now, and she said she conducted seven individual operations, all of them on the same sort of injuries, young men in their 20s and 30s with blast wounds to their faces and to their hands, several of them missing fingers as a result of these blasts. Now, no injuries has -- have arrived at this hospital yet. But, certainly, what we've seen is, for instance, there was a funeral in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where it appears that hundreds, perhaps thousands of people were.
[11:40:00]
And we spoke to an eyewitness who was there, who saw a blast happen, and a man seriously injured in his arms as a result. So, Beirut and many parts of Lebanon very much on edge, now that we're seeing a second day of a wave of these explosions linked to communications devices. Rahel.
SOLOMON: OK. Ben Wedeman live for us there is Beirut. Ben, thank you.
I'm going to bring back into the conversation CNN Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst, John Miller. John, I think whether you're talking about the pagers as was reported yesterday, or the walkie-talkies, as were reported today, they're still really small devices. How would you fit this type of device in such a small device?
MILLER: I mean, it's a very small container for something that we are seeing from the pictures and the videos, packed an incredibly powerful punch, given the nature of the injuries and the deaths. So, to make an improvised explosive device, you need three essential things. You need your main charge, the explosive, in this case, that could be any kind of version of plastic explosives, Semtexs, data sheet, things that are moldable or very small. You need a power source. In this case, whether it's the walkie-talkie or the pager, they could use the existing battery that comes with the device and just wire into it as their own power source as well. And of course, you need an initiator that's like a blasting cap, but you would need one to be tiny so that that power source would be enough to set off that initiator, to set off that main charge.
But, those are the essential elements. This would mean getting those devices and really kind of -- and this is probably why this is, as CNN has reported from Jeremy Diamond, a joint operation between the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, and the Israeli military. The Israeli military was likely brought in for their expertise with explosives, to figure out how to re-engineer these devices, to fit enough explosives in to be potentially lethal, an initiator that's small enough, and how to reprogram that battery. The last piece, though, is the complicated one, which is, you're dealing with walkie- talkies, or you're dealing with pagers, and you may be dealing with other devices. We may not have seen the end of this, and they send and receive signals.
So, you have to program that device to know a certain signal is the signal to the bomb, not the device, but the device has -- acts as a built-in receiver. So, they really maximize the possibilities here in an extraordinarily diabolical and creative plot to commit this kind of maximum damage against a critical adversary.
SOLOMON: Yeah. I mean, just still so many questions. As Nick Paton Walsh pointed out, we may not know, at least for another 72 hours, sort of what the implications here, what the goals of these operations were.
John Miller, thank you.
I want to now bring into the conversation Barbara Slavin, who is the Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Barbara, thank you for being with us today.
BARBARA SLAVIN, DISTINGUISHED FELLOW, STIMSON CENTER: Hello. Hi, it's Barbara Slavin, and I'm a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center.
SOLOMON: I really --
SLAVIN: I do not work for the Atlanta Council.
SOLOMON: I am really sorry about that, but I do appreciate you. I do appreciate you -- Yes. I appreciate you correcting that for us. Barbara, in any event, we are glad to have your insights today. Give me your sense of your reaction to this. I mean, there are questions by analysts about what is the strategic aim here. What was the intention here? What do you make of that?
SLAVIN: Yeah. I've been thinking about this a lot. There are so many things that Israel does that are tactically dazzling, but strategically, either incoherent or counterproductive. We will see what the response is going to be from Hezbollah and from affiliated groups in the days to come. But, this action clearly is not going to solve Israel's long-term problems, not with Palestinians, not with Lebanon, not with Iran, not with its many, many adversaries. What we've seen since October 7th is that Israel is isolated, far more
isolated than it's ever been, internationally and in its own region. The continuation of the war in Gaza, the Israeli refusal to stop that war, to stop killing Palestinians in Gaza, has made it very difficult even for Arab countries that have signed peace agreements with Israel to contain popular anger against Israel. I'm thinking now of Jordan. I'm thinking now of Egypt, Saudi Arabia.
[11:45:00]
Any hope of normalization with Saudi Arabia is clearly out the window, and that was the most important prize that Israel was looking for, that the United States was helping to broker. So, I just -- I cannot understand how Israel thinks this is going to help it in the medium term or the long term. Even in the short term, I think as one of your previous guests noted, Hezbollah still has the capacity to retaliate, to send missiles against Israel, not just the northern part of the country, but deep into the country if this -- these kinds of provocations continue. They are killing civilians.
SOLOMON: Barbara, would you expect a response --
SLAVIN: Sorry.
SOLOMON: Would you expect a response from Hezbollah after these two attacks?
SLAVIN: It's going to be very difficult for them not to respond in some way. And even though, obviously they cannot use any sort of electronic equipment for fear that it has been compromised, they can send couriers with pieces of paper saying that the following missile batteries should be launched at such and such a time and on such and such a date. I mean, Yahya Sinwar, who is still alive in Gaza directing Hamas, does not have any electronic devices that can be tampered with. So, again, I'm trying to understand what the strategic logic is behind this.
I'm reminded of another incident back in late 2020, just before the Trump administration left office, the Israelis killed a very important, excuse me, Iranian nuclear scientist named Fakhrizadeh with a remote-controlled machine gun. Again, people said, oh, my goodness, how dazzling that they were able to carry this out? Well, the Iranian government responded. The Parliament responded by passing legislation requiring Iran to ramp up its nuclear program to an extraordinary extent, and Iran is now on the verge of the ability to make nuclear weapons. Actions like these today could push Iran over the edge to develop nuclear weapons. Does this help Israel in the long term? I don't think so.
SOLOMON: Well, certainly a lot to watch. Barbara Slavin, we so appreciate your insights today and perspective. Thank you.
And I will be right back with more.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) SOLOMON: Welcome back. We continue to follow that breaking news of
fresh explosions in Lebanon. We're going to have more on that just ahead.
But, for now, though, it is a big day on the economic front. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell widely expected to announce the Fed's first interest rate cut since the height of the COVID pandemic in early 2020. Now, how deep of a cut? We don't yet know.
But, let's bring in CNN Anchor Julia Chatterley with the details. So, Julia, of course, the question is, will it be 25 basis points? Will it be half a percentage point? What are you watching? What's the most important thing here?
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: That's the most astonishing thing, I think, is the fact that we don't know so close to the meeting. It is unique for many reasons, and the first time they'll cut rates in four years. Most analysts expect them to do a quarter of a percentage point, and my money would be there. But, investors always more hopeful, anticipating a bigger rate cut of half a percent. Ultimately, it's going to come down to Jay Powell and how he explains why they've done a small cut or why they choose to go for a big one.
[11:50:00]
So, watch what he says on inflation. Watch what he says on jobs.
But, actually, for me, Rahel, the most crucial part of this is their forecast. How low do they think rates will go ultimately, and how quickly can they get there? Because for American borrowers out there, this is what we really care about, and this is what impacts on money. If you'll indulge me, it will have an impact on things like credit cards, on mortgages, on auto loans, and it depends on what happens and what they do and how quickly, of course, on how much cheaper they get for credit cards. The average new rate on a credit card right now is around 25 percent. Whatever they do today, it's going to be a rounding error. These things are so expensive. Mortgages, of course, were already at 18th month low. So, this will have an impact.
It's good news today if you have a home equity line of credit or if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, because those things will tick lower. If you're a saver, Rahel, and this is really important, now is the time to lock in a higher rate before they cut rates further. And if you're a borrower, you've just got to shop around. Rates are going to come low. The question is, how much and how soon? And we're going to hear more about that today.
SOLOMON: Yeah, in just about two hours. Julia Chatterley, thank you. The decision is in two hours. The press conference is in two and a half hours.
I want to now bring into the conversation KPMG's Chief Economist, Diane Swonk, who joins us live from Chicago. Diane, what are your expectations? Julia says she has her money on a quarter of a percentage point. What are you expecting? DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KPMG: Well, we're also expecting a
quarter point even though we prefer a half percent. We think a half percent will be discussed at the meeting. There is no question that Powell opened the door to that at his Jackson Hole symposium annual speech August 22. So, that's important. I don't think he had the votes that he needs prior to the blackout period to this meeting. And so, it's a heavy lift to get to that half percent. That said, I think we're going to see the Fed cut by a full percent. So, at least one outsized move before year-end at November or December, if they don't do it at the September meeting, and that's by year-end.
As far as the outlook for next year, we're expecting them to hold to that one percent additional cuts, which would be more than they expected in June, because they actually are going to have some outsized cuts, as we think it, before year-end. That said, it still doesn't get the Fed to what they consider neutral right now, which is going to be the next debate, is, how low can the Fed actually go? They don't expect to go back to the ultra-low rates that we saw prior to the pandemic or even as the pandemic began. And I think that's important to remember too.
SOLOMON: And I think as we're thinking about how low will they go, the job market will be so important in terms of their decision-making. And I'm curious how important the commentary is today. I mean, we have certainly seen data after data point of a weakening labor market. What are you going to be listening for when Jay Powell speaks in two and a half hours when it comes to the weakness we've seen in U.S. jobs?
SWONK: Well, I think that's very important. He sort of laid down the gauntlet that this is now the risk the Fed has to hedge in order to nail a soft landing with the improvement in inflation we've seen, you need to cut, and that's because the labor market has shown weakness. And in his annual speech at Jackson Hole, he said, listen, the risks are now that we get an unwanted weakening in the labor market, an additional weakening in the labor market, and that's already occurred in the month of August. We're running 116,000 on payroll jobs. That's not statistically significant from zero. That's very important, the length of time it takes for workers to find a new job. And even as the labor market weakens, remember, there is still lags in these rate cuts in terms of how they'll affect the labor market.
So, we really won't see the tail wind of lower rates affecting and shoring up the labor market until we get into early 2025. The issue for 2025, of course, is policy uncertainty, and that will be decided after the election, and the Fed will respond to it after the fact. As much as people like to put the election on the Fed's shoulders, the Federal Reserve does what it does when it thinks it's possible to do it and when it thinks it needs to do it, not answering to any politicians. So, I think --
SOLOMON: Yeah.
SWONK: -- both sides of the aisle will certainly be angry, no matter what the Fed does.
SOLOMON: As they try to block out the noise of where we are in the calendar, the election calendar.
Diane, before I let you go, for folks who are watching this, thinking, OK, rate cuts are finally coming. Inflation seems like it's in the rear view. Diane, from your perspective, how would you describe the health of the economy, the U.S. economy right now?
SWONK: The economy is still. It's amazing that consumers are discerning, but not defeated. They are now buying on discounts. That sort of holding back their wallets, but then getting the discounts is shoring up growth. We don't want that to turn into layoffs, and that's where we're at. The economy is still solid. We're going to see over two percent in the fourth quarter, I'm sorry, in the third quarter after three percent in the second quarter.
[11:55:00]
That's a very solid growth economy. But, we know soft landings are sort of a misnomer and that there is a lot of turbulence. We've seen many sectors of the economy suffer disproportionately from rate hikes, everything from vehicle sales to --
SOLOMON: Yeah.
SWONK: -- home sales to the manufacturing sector, and that's what we'd like to see, is more of all cylinders moving forward, the economy firing in all cylinders, instead of just the interest rate-laced sensitive sectors that we see today.
SOLOMON: Yeah. It's more of an art, this getting of a soft landing, than it is a science. And we're sort of in that really delicate spot.
Diane Swonk, thank you.
And before we go, an update now on our breaking news story. The Lebanese Health Ministry now says that at least nine people have been killed in today's walkie-talkie explosions in Lebanon. More than 300 are injured.
I'm Rahel Solomon in New York. Stick with CNN. One world is coming up next.
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