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Iran's Missile Attack On Israel Fuels Fears Of Broader War; Biden: "I'll Probably" Talk To Netanyahu "Relatively Soon"; Today: Biden Tours Storm Damage In Carolinas, Harris In Georgia; Waltz, Vance Hit Battleground States After VP Debate; DOJ Files New Evidence In 2020 Election Case Against Trump. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired October 02, 2024 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:44]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: It's 8:00 p.m. in London, 3:00 p.m. in Washington, D.C., 10:00 p.m. here in Tel Aviv.

I'm Jim Sciutto. Thanks so much for joining me today on CNN NEWSROOM. And let's get right to the news.

As the world waits for Israel's next move, Iran insists it has absolutely no interest in a broader war. The Islamic Republic says its unprecedented ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv on Tuesday was in response to a raft of assassinations by Israel against Iranian proxies, as well as members of its owned armed forces.

With help from its allies, Israel intercepted the vast majority of some 200 ballistic missiles Iran fired. That said, some did get through.

This was the moment, right in the middle of that barrage, as we saw from the roof of our hotel here in Tel Aviv.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: This attack, according to U.S. intelligence, principally, or perhaps entirely ballistic missiles which are the fastest by far, and the most dangerous.

And now, what we're seeing in addition to those intercepts is we're seeing fragments falling to the ground, it's like --

DANA BASH, CNN HOST: Yeah.

SCIUTTO: It's like a deadly -- a deadly fireworks display over Tel Aviv.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Israel has vowed to respond. The prime minister and military chief reiterating that they have the capabilities, they say, to strike any targets in the Middle East. Those targets reportedly include the possibility of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and attack which President Joe Biden said just a couple of hours ago, he does not support.

As Israel weighs its response, it continues its ground operation inside Lebanon and its already then a bloody one. This morning, eight Israeli soldiers were killed in combat after entering southern Lebanon and clashing with Hezbollah fighters.

CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is in Tel Aviv as well.

Nic, in terms of the Israeli response to this unprecedented Iranian attack, do we have a sense now of how imminent a decision and an attack by Israel is?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: We don't. We're not getting a sort of a blow by blow or tic-tac from the government on their thinking about this. And I think the silence speaks volumes. The intent is very clear. Absolutely, they're going to send a very clear message and we've heard from the military today saying, despite the fact that Iran targeted a number of bases, one of those bases is the base where long-range strikes would be launched from.

And they -- what we've heard from the military is all the bases are fully operational. So absolutely, Israel has the capability and capacity to launch not only missile and drone strikes, but long long- range F35 fighter jet complex missions into Iranian airspace and into Iranian -- onto Iranian territory.

But precisely when, Jim? It really feels like a well-kept secret. I think the fact that President Biden said he would be speaking with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relatively soon gives us an indication perhaps that that may come after strikes and therefore the strikes may be less than relatively soon.

SCIUTTO: Nic, you went on an Israeli mission to strike Yemen a number of days ago, which is quite a far and hard target for Israel, but it did carry out strikes there. And I wonder if part of the message of that mission, not to mention bringing a reporter along was to signal to Iran that Israel has long distance capabilities.

ROBERTSON: I think that was absolutely the intent, Jim. It was 1,200 miles very, very rare that Israel would invite a journalist on -- particularly a foreign journalist -- onto a combat mission. That's exceedingly rare and we flew down the Red Sea and for an hour-and-a- half on that flight, the air refuel tanker aircraft, I was on an aging Boeing 707 was refueling the F35 fighter jets every couple of minutes and other F35 would pull up to the back, it would be refueled, so the all the jets went on target with a full tank of gas, very clearly a message to Iran, whose coastline is a shorter distance away that Israel can easily and readily strike it.

[15:05:17]

SCIUTTO: An important message. Nic Robertson, thanks so much.

Well, President Joe Biden says, his administration is, quote, fully supportive of Israel, and that the U.S. is in active discussions with Israeli officials and leaders, deciding on an appropriate response to Iran's attack.

For more, let's go to CNN senior national security correspondent Alex Marquardt in Washington.

Alex, the president says he will speak with Netanyahu, quote, relatively soon. This has been a difficult relationship I think we can reasonably say. In recent weeks and months, a number of instances where the U.S. has urged caution and Israel has moved forward.

And I wonder, do you have a sense now of what message U.S. officials are conveying to Israel, and whether Israel is listening?

ALEXANDER MARQUARDT, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Jim, it's a very different message to the one that we heard six months ago, which was quote, take the win. You remember that was the first unprecedented Iranian strike against Israel with some 300 drones and missiles. And at that time, Iran was responding to an Israeli strike against their forces in Syria. So essentially, the U.S. was saying there was little damage in Israel, walk away, take the win.

That is not the message right now. What were being told by the Biden administration, both publicly from the president and behind the scenes from senior administration officials is that they do have the right it to respond. The message, I'm told, is not take the win. They are fully expecting something to happen.

And, of course, the U.S. side is going to be hoping that Israel listens to their advice, listens to what they're urging them to do.

Now, the big question is, what is this set of targets that Israel is going to go after. And the U.S. president made clear today that he hopes that Israel will not go after Iranian nuclear facilities that would really ratchet things up. And we are told that the U.S. assessment is that for now, us does not believe that Israel is going to target those nuclear facilities.

But, of course, that remains very much to be seen. And then in terms of timing, we did not see an immediate response last night. I'm told by one senior official that there taking a beat. They're considering things.

Of course, the holiday of Rosh Hashanah is starting today. It's going to last three days. So it's -- there's a possibility that it comes after the holiday, but we have to wait and see what that response is going to be when it's going to come. And of course, whether the Israelis listened to the U.S. and particular that urging to not target those very sensitive nuclear sites, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, and imagine what the Iranian response might be.

Israel, of course, the war, the Israeli war on Hezbollah continues. And as part of that, Israeli forces have been trying to destroy Hezbollah's arsenal of missile -- missiles and rockets. I understand you have new reporting on the progress in that mission.

MARQUARDT: And this is why Iran carried out this strike yesterday because we have seen all these operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon that the crown jewel in the Iranian proxy network that strike against Nasrallah last week also killed a senior IRGC general.

We are told that over the course of the past few weeks, these repeated operations from the from Israeli fighter jets, it has managed to take out some 50 percent of Hezbollah's formidable rocket and missile arsenal. They have tens of thousands of rockets, big and small, that can essentially reach every square inch of Israel. But I'm told that by both Israeli and U.S. officials to my colleagues and myself that half of that arsenal has been taken out, that that a major priority for the Israelis and at the same time, we have seen the decapitation with the killing of Nasrallah of Hezbollah, as well as a large number of senior commanders.

So this is a once very, very strong organization that has Israelis believed have been crippled at this point, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Alex Marquardt in Washington, thanks so much.

Well, in Lebanon, residents are bracing for the worst there as well. The Lebanese prime minister says that more than 1 million people have been displaced from Israeli strikes.

CNN's Ben Wedeman has a look at the situation on the ground there.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This is just one of the latest buildings struck by Israel here in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Driving in here, we saw that this part of town is a ghost town. There are very few inhabitants still left here as more than 1 million people have fled their homes in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley. And, of course, here in the southern part of Beirut as Israel continues its air and now ground campaigns inside Lebanon.

[15:10:02]

News from Israel says that the Israeli he military is deploying an additional division to the northern front, indicating that what started as, quote/unquote, localized, targeted and limited raids inside Lebanon may well become a full scale invasion. This as the region, the Middle East teeters on the abyss of full-scale war after Iran strikes on Israel overnight.

Iran, of course, bracing for some sort of Israel -- Israeli counterattack, while here in Lebanon, the death toll continues to rise. At this point, the death toll has exceeded, the death toll from the war back in 2006.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCIUTTO: Strikes continue there in Lebanon.

Well, here to discuss the state of this widening war on multiple fronts, Jasmine el-Gamal, a former Middle East advisor for the Pentagon and the State Department, and Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Good to have you both on.

You know, it's a difficult question to ask because there is no clear answer or may not be an answer. But, Jasmine, perhaps I could begin with you. Is there a response by Israel to this strike that that would be proportional again, a word that can be you know, it's like beauty is in the eye of the beholder, right? Proportional to one side may not be proportional to the other.

But a strike that Israel can carry out that would accomplish its goals of reestablishing deterrence but without sparking a broader war.

JASMINE EL-GAMAL, FORMER PENTAGON MIDDLE EAST ADVISER: Good to see you again, Jim. I mean, that's -- that's the question really that everyone is trying to figure out right now, including the Israelis were trying to figure out how best to strike and retaliate against Iran with the Americans in their ear, telling them that they support a retaliatory strike but one that is proportional. They don't want this to blow completely out of proportion as it has been spiraling over the last few months.

And so we've heard that President Joe Biden and his team are not in favor of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. That said, even if the Israelis do listen to them, there are a variety of other targets that they can strike -- strike. There are military installations. There are Iranian assets and proxies outside of Iran, for example, in Syria and Iraq.

We saw back in April when there was this exchange of fire between Iran and Israel that Israel has proven time and time again, that its intelligence capabilities are extremely advanced and that the message it does, one of the messages that it wants to convey right now is that it can strike Iran and its proxies anywhere. So, that could be an option, although you are hearing some more hawkish voices inside of Israel and even in the United States like Senator Lindsey Graham, calling for that attack on the nuclear facilities.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, Naftali Bennett, former prime minister and possible candidate for prime minister, down the line, he openly called for attacks on nuclear facilities.

Behnam, I wonder because if we look just at recent history of the last several weeks and months, at each opportunity, Israel, perhaps with some confidence, has carried out quite ambitious attacks. You think of the attack killing Nasrallah, the pager attack. Now a ground operation underway inside southern Lebanon, the first time Israel has sent troops in numbers in Lebanon in 18 years.

So I wonder, given that footing, should we brace ourselves for quite a large retaliation in the coming days?

BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: It's a pleasure to be with you.

And it's an excellent question because old trend lines all signs certainly point to yes. And I think the most important variable or vector here is not the target whether that's the nuclear issue or not. More facilities are going after a certain person or trying to defame the regime by going after a certain asset or military capability. I think it really is the publicity, the Israeli take credit for their retaliatory operation.

If you remember back on April 19 when they responded several days after the April 13, April 14, Iranian missile and drone barrage, they did not take credit for that and reportedly, these really shows the lowest of the low of the menu of options that they were presented with and one that they were quite confident would not spur another Iranian kinetic reprisal.

Here, based on the way things have been going in the past three weeks of the Middle East, which have really been three game game-changing weeks that have done away with almost three decades of Iran investment in that crown jewel, Lebanese Hezbollah, which is also the forefront of the regime's conventional deterrence against Israel, and a way to guard its own nuclear program, anything honestly is on the table.

So I think the most important variable is the publicity than the secondary and tertiary is the scale and the scope.

[15:15:04]

But make no mistake: Israel knows it has escalation dominance and as we see in the past three weeks, its acting like it has escalation dominance.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

Jasmine, Biden has said quite publicly now he does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites. As we noted, Netanyahu has often not listened to or cooperated with the Biden administration, but let me ask you this, whether he wants to or not, Prime Minister Netanyahu, does he need us military support to carry out a decisive attack or even an attack that does some lasting damage on Iran's nuclear facilities or could Israel do it on its own?

EL-GAMAL: I mean, Jim, the short answer is that the Israelis absolutely need the Americans not just in terms of support, but in terms of defense as well. You have U.S. military assets, as you know, in the regions standing by, in the case they need to defend Israel in case of a larger Iranian attack. I mean, this is not something that the Israelis could do alone and Iran knows that. But -- and Iran knows also that the Americans would come to the defense of Israel, which is why Iran so far been reluctant to get fully engaged in that all-out conflict we've been talking about.

Now, that said, you're absolutely right. What we've seen over the last year is that despite that Israeli need for American support, Prime Minister Netanyahu was more often than not ignored Biden's warnings and advice. When we saw the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. today speaking about us support for Israel and the language that she was using when she said that the U.S. has fully, fully, fully in support of Israel, it remind me of that bear hug language that was being used by Biden right after October 7th, that extremely envelope -- enveloping a supportive language that is meant to assure Israel publicly so that the U.S. can guide it privately.

We haven't seen that bear hug approach be very successful when it came to Gaza and negotiations over a ceasefire. Whether or not it will be successful in this case, remains to be seen.

SCIUTTO: Behnam, before we go, there is a well of support in this country. You hear it in some public comments from Israeli officials for the argument now is the time, right? Now is the time to take out Iran's nuclear weapons. Now is the time even to pursue regime change in Iran.

Now, I don't have to remind you, but -- or our viewers of attempts to carry out regime change in this region and what followed. Is that a realistic objective for Israel -- Israel at this point?

TALEBLU: It's an objective that Israel seems to be going towards but I would push away from the table on this and say, we cannot divorce the arsonists, the Islamic Republic of Iran, from the whole host of fires it's caused in the region. And the irony of this is if there ever was a place where a regime change option not ala Iraq 2003 and not at ala Afghanistan 2001, but on an entirely different model, could be employed in a way that actually aligns ways, means, and ends in the Middle East that we have not done an actually in a way that allows you to marry your head or your strategy, or your -- with your heart and your values in the Middle East. It actually is indeed withstanding with the Iranian people.

So, while all attention is on the military issue and will Israel go after the nuclear program, yes or no, and the level of American permissibility for that, I would rewind, I think back by two days and look at Benjamin Netanyahu's comments about standing with the Iranian people and about understanding of a shared historical heritage and history between these two people and how the past 45 years really is an aberration and an insult to that history. And perhaps there is a better place for Israel and America to work together, to stand united in effect a better strategy and employ similar value.

SCIUTTO: Well, listen, the region awaits the next step, as to the people caught in the middle.

Jasmine El-Gamal, Behnam Ben Taleblu, thanks so much to both of you.

Well, after the break, we're going to show you up close video of U.S. launching interceptors from a Navy destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean to help thwart Iran's missile attack on Israel. It's pretty exciting pictures. You don't want to miss. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:22:57]

SCIUTTO: This is the moment a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Eastern Mediterranean launched interceptor missiles against incoming Iranian ballistic missile headed towards Israel last night, one U.S. Navy official says the destroyers in the Eastern Med successfully engaged multiple missiles fired by Iran. The Pentagon says those destroyers fired around a dozen interceptors during that Iranian barrage.

For more on the U.S. involvement in staving off the attack I want to bring in CNN's Oren Liebermann at the Pentagon.

Oren, we did hear prior to this missile barrage that the U.S. would be ready and prepared to shoot down missiles. It did just that. Tell us exactly how it carried that out.

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Jim, a lot of this goes into the coordination between the Israeli military and the U.S. military. Sure, once in a while, you'll see friction at the political level, but rarely if ever at the military level. And that was crucial to an effort like this.

Shortly after the end of the Iranian ballistic missile barrage, the Israeli military came out and said that the Israeli air force worked hand in hand with the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East, absent as part of the effort to track and monitor these missiles. And then it was U.S. destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean, that video you showed just a moment ago, that was the Navy firing interceptors to shoot down several of those ballistic missiles.

For better or for worse, they've also had practice. There was the same level of coordination, the same effort to intercept the barrage back in April, there, there were again destroyers in the Middle East that shot down several of the projectiles, drones, missiles that were incoming to Israel and there may have been land assets as well, so air interceptors fired from the ground.

There were other countries involved. Jordan said they would shoot down missiles that were in their airspace or anything in their airspace really. And we saw that happened once again. So, it's beyond just the U.S. and Israel. It shows that at the military level, there is a tremendous amount of cooperation and we very much saw that play out last night, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, and I saw the U.K. announced that they were ready and prepared to take part.

[15:25:01]

Tell us what we know about U.S. military movements in preparation for the possibility that this war escalates further, and are those movements purely defensive in nature?

LIEBERMANN: That's very much what the Pentagon is signaling, that everything they have in the region is defensive, both for U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, and for the defense of Israel. And there are significant forces in the Middle East.

There's a carrier strike group in the Gulf of Oman. There's an amphibious ready group in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. They just added three or four fighter squadrons, including A10s, F-15s, F-22s. Those can obviously be used for offense and defense. And then on top of that, there is another carrier strike group heading

east right now in the Atlantic Ocean that could fairly quickly be sent to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, should it be needed.

Now, much of that is a message to Iran and its proxies not to escalate, not to get involved. Obviously, Iran with its ballistic missile attack did escalate. But the U.S. as it has in the past, trying to find some sort of -- some sort of off-ramp here to prevent a wider regional war. That's always been the U.S. goal.

And part of that has been the show of force and right now, we very much see that in the region again. There are also troops on prepare to deploy orders. So, they too could be sent here very quickly. Should the president and should the defense secretary decide that's necessary.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, and they might be targets as well, as they've been in the past.

Oren Liebermann, thanks so much.

All right. Let's speak now to General Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander, founder of Renew America Together.

General, good to have you back on.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Thank you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: This region, as you know and watch closely, has been dangerous for some time but the collection of fronts right now, war in Gaza, war in Lebanon, Israeli strikes (AUDIO GAP) last night. Now, discussion of an Israeli -- Israeli response.

Just how dangerous is this moment in your estimation? And what response from Israel do you believe would establish deterrence, retaliate proportionally but not launch a broader regional war?

CLARK: Well, it is a dangerous moment because the United States warned Iran not to strike but the hard liners in Tehran in a debate decided they would go ahead and disregard the United States. So, it is dangerous. If we're going to achieve escalation dominance and stopped the tit-for-tat back and forth, Israel is going to have to do something. I think his little more than proportional.

But that's, you know, that's national command decision and the United States in working with president -- Prime -- and Bibi Netanyahu and the Israeli military, there's three sets of targets. There's a nuclear set, okay, that's been ruled out by President Biden, there are other regime targets and there the economic targets, principally cars, island, which is the export terminal, and the -- in the Persian Gulf. It's -- well-defended, I'm sure but it could be taken down.

They would send a message it will certainly a shake up the oil market. But it's a visible target. It's powerful symbol, if it's taken out and Israel could also go after other targets associated with regime like headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards Corp's in various places. SCIUTTO: Right. The Israeli defense forces chief of staff warned that Israel has the means to, quote, strike any targets in the Middle East. Is that true when it comes to nuclear targets? In other words, could -- could Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities decisively without us support?

CLARK: Well, you know, that's the question is, what is decisive, Jim? Can you get an air attack, with air to ground order? Probably so. All over Iran, can you put together a strike package with the right electronic warfare, suppression of enemy air defense, urgent rescue assets, aerial refueling, and so forth without U.S. support? Probably not, not all over Iran.

So, there's a requirement for U.S. participation and U.S. support to follow through on that pledge from Israeli military if they were going to go after the whole set of nuclear targets.

SCIUTTO: Israel announced that eight Israeli soldiers were killed in combat today in southern Lebanon. And I have to say, having covered the 2006 Israeli war in Lebanon, this is bringing back memories of a ground incursion that began with small objectives but the Israeli losses mounted very quickly.

[15:30:10]

And then after 30 days, Israel left. It had losses. Hezbollah live to survive another day, and in fact got stronger. Is this -- is this a sign at least of how difficult the task is for Israel in southern Lebanon?

CLARK: Yes, it is a sign of that. It is going to be very difficult operation. You know, under U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, they're not supposed to be any Hezbollah south of the Litani River and yet it's never been enforced. The government of Lebanon can't enforce it. And Israel thought they could do this in 2006, they didn't actually achieve it.

The U.N. Security Council resolutions have been ignored. So, that would be the Israeli objective. Can they go in there and clean this out? But it's going to be timely, expensive, dangerous, difficult.

SCIUTTO: No question and we saw that today. Wesley Clark, thanks so much.

Coming up, President Joe Biden is now touring the Carolinas, surveying the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. We're live there in Raleigh, North Carolina. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

President Joe Biden today visiting the Carolinas for aerial tours of the hurricane-ravaged Southeast. Vice President Kamala Harris is surveying the damage in Georgia.

[15:35:01]

The death toll now stands at 182, making Helene one of the worst and deadly storms to hit the U.S. in a generation.

The scale of the destruction, just astonishing to see. Here's one idea of what the president could see from the air, satellite images of Asheville, one from May last year showing buildings, homes, roads, another taken on Monday showing just mud and sludge, in their placed. Look at it there.

For more on the president's visit, CNN's Miguel Marquez is in Raleigh. He joins us.

And, Miguel, I know you've been on the ground touring the disaster zones there. Tell us what you see and what the president is hoping to accomplish with this visit?

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is the completeness of the destruction from the water and the accompanying debris that just wiped out homes, businesses, and in some cases, entire communities, communities that they can't even get to still. So there is still a very huge immediate need to get to people who may be in distress right now. But many others who are they need water, they need medicine, they need food in many, many areas.

The president, the vice president. This is all hands-on deck for the government right now. He's called up a 1,000 active duty service members, everything from helicopter crews and engineers, and heavy truck operators, those who can provide electricity, generators temporarily, cell phone operations to try to get to some of the far- flung areas.

Keep in mind, this is the Appalachian mountains, Asheville, city of about 100,000 is in the blue ridge mountains, these are -- it's absolutely stunning, but it's also very mountainous. It's a lot of crags, it's a lot of valleys, it's hard to get to some of these areas.

So the president flying over the Asheville area, Chimney Rock, some of the hardest hit areas of these storms. We were downtown Asheville. You know, they -- it's on the French Broad River. They have had floods throughout the years. Usually, it comes up maybe to their front doors of the businesses, maybe afoot, maybe two feet if its really bad.

This was two to three feet above the second floor of these buildings in that area of Asheville, that gives you an idea of just how much water was coming down the mountains with nowhere to go except into the lower areas. It is going to be weeks to get the immediate needs met and years to get things back to somewhere close to where they are or before this -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Can you give us a sense, Miguel, of how many people are still missing? I know there was some sense that once communications were restored, that a lot of those who were listed as missing would be found because folks could get in touch with them. Is there any estimate of how much higher the death toll could go? MARQUEZ: It's still in the hundreds in the -- in North Carolina. It is probably thousands across the six states are so that we're talking about from Florida all the way up into West Virginia, you know, eastern Tennessee was also hit very hard.

So as they get those telephones restored, they can find people -- most people are starting to hear from others, but it is slow going. A lot of people we talked to say, well, I've heard from a lot of my -- my immediate friends, but I haven't heard from these folks. We think they're okay, but we're not sure. It's going to take days or weeks, even figure out the answer to that question -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Just alarming numbers. Miguel Marquez, thanks, thanks for bringing the story to us.

MARQUEZ: You got it.

SCIUTTO: Well, on the campaign trail, the battle of clips and claiming the narrative, both vice presidential nominees are out in swing states today, looking to seize on last night's vice presidential debate. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in York, Pennsylvania, set to speak at any moment. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, rallying supporters last hour in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Since the debate, the Harris campaign already launched an ad featuring one particular exchange this part on January 6. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He is still saying he didn't lose the election.

I would just ask you, did he lose the 2020 election?

SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tim, I'm focused on the future.

WALZ: That is a damning non-answer.

SUBTITLE: If we elect Donald Trump, the past will be the future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Democrats cheered that back and forth.

Vance got his punches in to though including on foreign policy. Here's one moment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VANCE: When did Iran and Hamas and their proxies attack Israel? It was during the administration of Kamala Harris. So, Governor Walz can criticize Donald Trump's tweets, but effective, smart diplomacy and peace through strength is how you bring stability back to a very broken world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Well, it is true that all those groups were attacking Israel prior.

With me now, Jackie Kucinich of "The Boston Globe" and Kadia Goba of 'Semafor".

Good to have you both on.

The immediate D.C. reaction, Jackie, which doesn't matter that much, I think we can concede, crown Vance, the winner of the debate. The polls -- I know CNN's snap poll showed it was pretty much split. I mean, the big question is, did this debate have an effect on the race?

JACKIE KUCINICH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: So, the extent that it moved the needle in these swing states, it doesn't seem to. I do think when it comes to Vance and not to sound like a D.C. person.

But I think if anyone did himself any favors, it's J.D. Vance. He looked very poised. He looked very polished. Some of those answers are probably weren't the greatest, but you pointed to that one about foreign policy. He was a very effective communicator of the Trump message in a way that the former president himself absolutely is not.

And so in that way, J.D. Vance really introduced, reintroduced himself to the public it perhaps in a more flattering light that he has since his rollout at the Republican convention.

SCIUTTO: Kadia, to that point, here's how Vance reflected on the debate last hour in Auburn Hills, Michigan. Have a listen. Oh, we don't have that sound.

I should say that he was as often participants other debates do claiming victory after -- after this debate, but he did go into debate with very low favorability numbers, especially compared to Walz. According to CNN's polling, he improved his favorability numbers, but so did Walz.

So I wonder, just in terms of introducing themselves to voters, is it possible that both of them won to some degree?

KADIA GOBA, POLITICAL REPORTER, SEMAFOR: Yeah, I think that was the point here, to introduce, you know, voters to these obscure vice presidential candidates, which, you know, J.D. Vance was very good at pointing that out at the very beginning, saying that, you know, most of America has no idea who we are probably reminded Walz to actually do that, even though he did it 40 minutes, but -- 40 minutes into the debate.

But yeah, I think to your point, this was good for them to introduce themselves. I think you'll see more of Walz on the trail now with that, you know, introduction. But it's not clear what advantage. They did both get a bump in the polling but it's not clear if it changes the minds of any voters.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. Jackie, I wonder effect this has on Trump's favorability ratings, and might it affect Trump's decision to turn down another debate with Kamala Harris?

KUCINICH: So, it depends on -- I mean, it seems like while you're walking that to beat, it was very clear that the audience of one was very much who's former President Trump was very much on J.D. Vance's mind, which is likely why he answered the question, how he did in that ad that the Harris campaign, you knew that was going to happen. You could just feel them clipping that and making that into an ad right after it happened.

As far as whether it pushes Trump to have another debate, perhaps he thinks he can best Harris just have a good debate like J.D. Vance and wants to show that? I don't know. I think we've all given up trying to get into Trumps head and what he's going to do.

But it's certainly -- it certainly showed more -- and which was more important for Vance than Walz. That this was someone who was polished and capable in that setting and who has a running mate who is in his 80s.

SCIUTTO: Well, one reason, Kadia, that Walz could be -- could have been less comfortable, he hasn't done any high-profile interviews himself, which is not out of character with the Harris campaign, even for Harris, right? They'd been focusing on different kinds of media. She's -- she's had a few but certainly not as many as the media is asking for and not as many as previous candidates.

Is they're going to be a rethinking of that strategy? Or is -- I mean, they're running their own campaign. Have they calculated they got to plan and they're sticking to it?

GOBA: It's a good question. I do not see the campaign at this point of the campaign giving more access to reporters at this point, but I have just say, Walz is still 20, you know, he's been in politics for about 20 years now, so he's definitely had the experience of being on camera, obviously, not to this degree, more of an a local level in Minnesota where he's the governor and for his district. He's had debates before in the past.

So, you know, he's had practice. Maybe you had a little bit of jitters because of this -- because this is such a big platform. But I wouldn't count him out as totally inexperienced.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, and we should note, he's going to do two national interviews believe this week, Walz is.

[15:45:03]

Jackie, can I ask you about where I am right now because war is brewing in the Middle East. We've often talked through the years about October surprises and instability tends not to favor incumbents if you can call to some degree Harris an incumbent as the sitting vice president. Is -- is instability in this part of the world a factor for voters in this cycle?

KUCINICH: So, first of all, Jim, I'm so glad you're okay. That was very scary moment for those of us watching yesterday. So that's good. SCIUTTO: Thank you. Appreciate it.

KUCINICH: But in terms of how this impacts the race, it is its hard to say. I think -- of course -- I think there are some voters who are going to look at this. And I think that was the tenor of the J.D. Vance answer last night was what it was, that are going to look this as perhaps a knock against with Biden and Harris, which now Harris and Walz.

That said, when you look at the issues that people care about, again, based on polling, the economy, still and inflation are the reason people are casting their ballots. Might foreign -- foreign affairs and foreign policy end up playing into that, depending on how bad things get potentially, but -- but, right now --

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

KUCINICH: But right now, I think we are still at kitchen table issues that are really moving the vote.

SCIUTTO: Well, I'll tell you, if there's an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities and that drives oil prices up, that's certainly something that would then have a carry on economic effect.

Jackie Kucinich, Kadia Goba, good to have you both. Thanks so much.

KUCINICH: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: And we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Breaking news just into CNN, a federal judge in Washington has now released a legal filing which reveals Jack Smith's plan to prosecute Trump in the 2020 election subversion case.

[15:50:03]

The document lays out the special counsel's case for trial judge in a way that they believe would overcome the immunity protections around the president -- presidency, which is a U.S. Supreme Court, has outlined in its groundbreaking immunity decision earlier this year.

CNN's Zach Cohen joins me now.

Zach, there's been a lot of anticipation about this filing because it would give us a window into evidence that we haven't seen before. What are the highlights? And I know this document is just come out, but what are the highlights that you see so far?

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Jim. It's a 165- page document which really is expected to be the fullest accounting that we have seen so far of Jack Smith's case against Donald Trump in the election subversion case. And it really does, at least our initial reading of this, does outline how this case should be prosecuted at a trial -- in a trial scenario given the Supreme Court's immunity ruling and specifically it seems to hone in on the fact that Donald Trump, as Jack Smith argues, there's evidence that Donald Trump knew that there was not widespread voter fraud enough to tip the scales of the election in his favor.

And yet he proceeded to claim that there was any way and that he wanted to -- he wanted to use those claims to overturn the legitimate vote -- voting results from the voters in several key swing states, that he relied primarily on the advice of private attorneys. Remember the Supreme Court immunity ruling really did say that Trump was immune for actions under the official acts cause as president, right? And that really removed many of the elements in his dealings with government officials, dealing with White House attorneys. But this reshaped and this reshaped case by Jack Smith seemed to really focus on Trump's interactions with those private attorneys and how they targeted these key swing states through the fake elector scheme and through the pressure campaign against Mike Pence to ultimately overturn the election results on January 6.

Now, the purpose of this document, the 165 pages, and essentially to act as what Jack Smith would tell the jury in opening statement, right? It relies on evidence that we have both seen and not seen before. We'll have to get back to you with some specific details that are new in this, but we do expect there to be grand jury details from the interviews with people like Mark Meadows, potentially, potentially Mike Pence, other high profile names as Jack Smith tries to make this case that the Supreme Courts immunity ruling does not mean that this entire case should be thrown out.

And Judge Chutkan appearing to agree with that decision. Now, ultimately, Jim, we do know that this case almost certainly is not going to actually go to trial before the 2024 election, which is just you months away. But again, this document here may be the fullest look we get at the case Jack Smith would have brought.

SCIUTTO: And it's amazing, right, just a month to the next election with Trumps still denying the results of the last election that this is how long it's taken to answer some of these questions. Zach Cohen, thanks so much for bringing us those details.

And we'll be right back with more.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

Before we go, have a look at this. A junk dealer uncovered this painting in the depths of a cellar in Capri. Some 60 years ago, the artwork lived in a cheap frame in the dealer's Italian home for decades, with his wife denouncing it as a scribble. But experts now say the portrait is actually an original by none other than Pablo Picasso.

The distorted image is believed to depict Picasso's muse and mistress, Dora Maar. Valuers estimate the painting is worth 6 million euros. Not a bad find in the attic.

Thanks so much for joining me today. I'm Jim Sciutto in Tel Aviv.

"QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is up next.