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Federal Workers Told to Justify Jobs in Email; Source: Russia Launches "Record" 267 Drones, Decoys at Ukraine; Soon: Hezbollah Holds Funeral for Nasrallah in Beirut; Consumer Sentiment Plunges on Tariff, Inflation Worries; Voters Heading to Polls to Choose New Government; Source: Zelenskyy Won't Accept Draft Mineral Deal with U.S. Aired 5-6a ET

Aired February 23, 2025 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[05:00:33]

KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada, and around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. This is CNN Newsroom.

Federal workers face a single question that could determine whether they get to keep their jobs. Details on the Trump administration's latest moves to reshape the government.

Pope Francis is in critical condition after suffering a respiratory crisis. We'll have a live report from Rome with an update on his health.

And the rift between Washington and Kyiv looms as Ukraine prepares to mark three years since Russia's full-scale invasion. We'll have the latest from Kyiv.

ANNOUNCER: Live from Atlanta, this is CNN Newsroom with Kim Brunhuber.

BRUNHUBER: Federal employees in multiple agencies are likely thinking about the same email this weekend. Subject line seemed innocent enough. What did you do on the job last week? How or even whether they answer could determine if they keep their jobs. Now it comes as President Donald Trump and Elon Musk ramp up their campaign to slash the government workforce. Musk says failure to respond to the email will be considered a resignation.

Some agencies like the Secret Service have told employees to comply with the request, but the FBI and other federal departments have advised their staff not to immediately respond. CNN's Betsy Klein has more from the White House.

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BETSY KLEIN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE PRODUCER: President Trump taking a victory lap to a friendly crowd at CPAC on Saturday, ticking off some of his accomplishments, taking aim at his political rivals and saying that he believes he has, quote, "a mandate for dramatic change in Washington."

Now to that end, we have seen President Trump take steps toward dramatically reshaping the size and the scope of the federal government, and he has dispatched Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency to find ways to dramatically slash federal spending and trim the federal workforce. So Trump at CPAC said that Musk was doing a great job, called him a patriot, but during that speech, Musk himself announced a new ultimatum for federal workers, saying tell us what you did or you'll be fired.

In a tweet he posted, he said consistent with President Donald Trump's instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.

Now CNN has obtained multiple copies of that email sent to federal workers. It includes the very stark subject line, what did you do last week, and asks those workers to respond with roughly five bullet points, replying to that email and CCing their manager with an 11:59 p.m. deadline on Monday.

Of course, there are federal workers who don't have access to a computer between now and Monday at 11:59 p.m. There may be federal workers who are on vacation, and there may be federal workers who frankly are doing work that is classified they cannot put in writing what they accomplished, but certainly President Trump for his part also taking aim at federal workers who are working remotely. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), U.S. PRESIDENT: If you don't report for work, we're firing them. In other words, you have to go to office, right? Right? Look at her. If you don't report to work, you know, that's another scam. You know, who the hell -- if I'm staying home, I'm going to -- let's see, my golf handicap would get down to a very low number. You'd be shocked if I told you the real number, but I would be so good, I'd try and get on tour.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KLEIN: I'd get -- I would be so good. Of course, we should note that President Trump himself worked remotely this past week. He was also on the golf course on Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of last week, but taken together, really a dramatic effort to reshape the federal workforce.

Betsy Klein, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: Donald Trump is moving full speed ahead with his efforts to dismantle USAID. In a court victory for his administration, a judge is allowing it to remove thousands of staff members from their positions both in the U.S. and abroad. The Support Relief Group, designed to be dispatched to global emergencies at a moment's notice, has been dismantled amid the cuts.

One former staffer estimates 95% of the team lost their jobs. On Saturday, Trump touted his efforts to end USAID and outlined how the organization's former headquarters would be used in the future.

[05:05:07]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We've also effectively ended the left-wing scam known as USAID, the agency's name, has been removed from its former building and that space will now house agents from Customs and Border Patrol.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Now, this comes as a slight majority of Americans say the president has gone too far in cutting federal government programs, but nearly a third say he has hit the right tone. 17% say he hasn't gone far enough.

All right, joining us now is Thomas Gift, Director of the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London.

Good to see you again. So I want to start with that, specifically dissatisfaction over the cuts. Now, it's hard to tease out exactly how much anger there is over the president himself and how much of all this has to do with Elon Musk more directly. So I want to play a clip from the Conservative Political Action Conference this weekend.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I signed an order creating the Department of Government Efficiency. You probably haven't heard of it, which is now waging war on government waste, fraud and abuse. And Elon is doing a great job. He's doing a great job. We love Elon, don't we?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Well, the answer, at least according to polls, is no. A CNN poll last week found most Americans called Musk's role in the administration a bad thing by 54% to 28%. Now, is it Musk himself who's just unpopular or does that reflect what he and the Trump administration are doing with DOGE?

THOMAS GIFT, DIRECTOR, CENTER ON U.S. POLITICS, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON: Thanks so much for having me, Kim. It's great to be with you. I think it's a little bit of both. I mean, certainly Democrats, liberals more generally, are not enamored with Elon Musk. That was true, especially during the campaign when he went so far in for Donald Trump.

But I also think that there's some dissatisfaction about the way that Elon Musk is going about this. And a couple things really stand out. One is just a lack of transparency. The second is so many of his comments on X are very flippant about long serving public servants who have really done an incredible job for the government for many, many years.

And I think the speed at which he is going as kind of this breakneck velocity has really taken a lot of people by surprise. It doesn't seem like he's going through these agencies methodically. It seems like he's kind of going with a hatchet rather than a scalpel.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah, you talk about demoralized public servants. I mean, those federal workers who got those emails yesterday asking them to describe what they did last week, and then if they don't answer, they're basically fired. I mean, I've never seen anything like it, right?

GIFT: I've never seen anything like it either. My brother works for the federal government in Washington, D.C. And I just can't imagine what he and many of his colleagues are thinking at the moment.

In the intro to this segment, it was noted that people may be on vacation, people may be working on classified projects to which they can't explain in detail all that they have done. They may be out of the office for other reasons due to sickness and illness. I just don't think that this is the way to go about it.

I absolutely think that Americans are behind the idea that there is some fraud, there is some waste, there is some abuse in the federal government. There's a smart way and a not smart way to go about it. And I really think that Elon Musk's negative poll numbers reflect the fact that they just don't have trust in this process.

BRUNHUBER: Well, speaking of poll numbers, more broadly, Donald Trump's job approval rating is 15 points below the historic average for all other elected presidents at this point, since modern polling, basically. How much do you think that has to do with the economy? I mean, that was one of the main reasons Donald Trump won the election. People weren't happy with the direction of the economy and want to change, but they don't seem any more happy now about the direction of the economy than they were under President Biden.

GIFT: I think Americans are waking up to the fact that you can't turn off inflation overnight. And of course, much of inflation is due to structural issues, including supply chains that have very little to do with actual government policy. I do think that you can make the case that some of Joe Biden's initiatives exacerbated the problem, just flooding the system with funds, particularly at the beginning to middle of the pandemic.

But much of this is kind of beyond the reach of the president. But for those who really thought that Trump was going to come into office and all of a sudden, the price of eggs and milk was going to go down, they're really getting a rude awakening right now. And that was entirely predictable.

Of course, Donald Trump was making all kinds of promises, all kinds of pledges. I think anyone that was kind of thinking through this logically would not be surprised that the outcome hasn't been exactly as he's described.

[05:10:01]

BRUNHUBER: Yeah, and we were showing footage there of CPAC. This weekend, we saw Elon Musk wielding that chainsaw on stage and one of the more memorable moments at that conference. What's been your takeaway from what's been happening there over the weekend?

GIFT: Well, this was another Trump greatest hit speech. It was a self- congratulatory tour that sounded more like a campaign rally before the Iowa caucuses, frankly, than a president who had just taken the oath of office. Really had it all. Talk of pardoning J6 rioters, deep state bureaucrats, Joe Biden's failures, took aim at everyone from Elizabeth Warren to Rachel Maddow. CNN, actually, got a shout out from the president. I know you'd like to know that.

Trump has a history of CPAC. Last year, he declared himself a political dissident coming back to save the party. A few years before that, you may recall they rolled in a golden statue of Trump as a kind of idol for MAGA followers to worship. So this was really kind of a Trump conference more so than a conservative conference. That's what it's evolved into.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah, certainly shows the direction of the party.

Thomas Gift, thank you so much. Always great to get your expertise.

GIFT: Thanks, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: Well, the Vatican says Pope Francis is resting in the hospital, having had a peaceful night after a difficult day of illness. On Saturday, the Vatican said the 88-year-old pontiff suffered a prolonged asthmatic respiratory crisis. He required oxygen and received blood transfusions for anemia, but remains in critical condition. Pope Francis will miss the weekly Angelus prayer for the second Sunday in a row, and for only the third time in his nearly 12- year-long papacy. Catholics around the world are praying for his recovery.

I want to go now to CNN Vatican Correspondent Christopher Lamb, who is in Rome. So, Christopher, yesterday the pope seemed at least on the mend, and then suddenly this big setback. What more can you tell us about how he's doing?

CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kim, you're right. The very difficult news we heard last night was kind of unexpected for some people, because we had heard from the doctors that the pope was not in immediate danger, but the doctors had also told us that Francis was not out of danger either and is in a critical condition. The Vatican explained the pope had this asthmatic crisis. He needed high flow of oxygen and blood transfusions. The pope has now been at the Gemelli Hospital behind me since last Friday. It's one of his longest days in hospital since his election.

And, you know, the wider context to this is that the pope had, before his hospitalization, been really working extremely hard, keeping up a relentless pace of meetings and public events. In fact, I saw him on the day of his hospitalization, and it was clear then he was struggling to talk for long periods because of his breathing difficulties. Essentially, Francis was sacrificing his health in order to keep going in his role, and now he is in the hospital dealing with pneumonia in both of his lungs.

Kim?

BRUNHUBER: You know, Catholics, obviously, are praying for the pope's welfare. How are they showing their concern, both there in Rome and around the world?

LAMB: Well, Francis is a very popular pope, particularly in Latin America. He's the first pope from that constant, the first Argentinian pope. And there are Catholics around the world showing their concern and praying for Francis.

Today in Rome, there's going to be a mass said for the pope and his recovery at the St. John Lateran Church, the cathedral church of the pope. And there's obviously a lot of concern across the church at this time. Behind me at the Gemelli, there's a statue of John Paul II, and people have been putting candles with Francis' face on them and praying there.

So clearly a lot of concern and an outpouring of well-wishers for Francis and an outpouring of prayer for the pope. We are expecting a further update from the Vatican later today. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right. We'll bring our viewers that when it comes. Christopher Lamb in Rome, thank you so much.

The U.S. is marking the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine with its own draft U.N. resolution. It had refused to support the one drafted by Kyiv. The U.S. version doesn't condemn Russia, and it doesn't acknowledge Ukraine's territorial integrity. U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau discussed the conflict in a phone call ahead of Monday's virtual G7 gathering.

The White House says Trudeau echoed President Trump's desire to see an end to the war and acknowledged that President Trump is the only leader who can push through a lasting peace.

Meanwhile, an indication of how Moscow is marking the anniversary, Ukrainian authorities say Russia launched a record 267 drones and decoys at five regions overnight, killing at least one person.

[05:15:11]

And the White House says a draft deal over rare minerals between the U.S. and Ukraine isn't a guarantee of future aid for its war with Russia, and it wouldn't include any commitment of U.S. personnel in the region. A source familiar with the negotiation says the deal isn't one that Ukraine's president would accept, as it appears Kyiv would be doing the heavier lifting. Earlier, a U.S. official told CNN the deal over minerals and other natural resources is nearly done. All right, joining us now live from Kyiv is CNN's Nick Paton Walsh.

So, Nick, a lot seems to ride on this proposed deal. Take us through what's at stake and where things stand?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Yeah, I mean, it is -- it seems, the key plank in future U.S.-Ukraine relations. In fact, almost more importantly for the Trump administration, about repaying old debt given by the Biden administration, old aid given by the Biden administration, is the only really discussion in town now. And there have been multiple reports, leaks, suggesting various stages of progress or various elements of this being unacceptable to Kyiv here.

An official familiar with the negotiations that we spoke to suggesting that it was not in a place where Zelenskyy could sign. That was yesterday. That official discussing how this was really about asking Ukraine to put together or to pay back more money than indeed its defense so far had even cost.

So it's an exceptionally fraught back and forth at the moment. And one where a U.S. official I spoke to as well is casting this quite differently, suggesting this is really about the United States being able to become less dependent on China for the rare earth, minerals and metals and other natural resources that Ukraine could provide them. And that essentially it's a win-win through which Ukraine gets to see the United States more invested in its security because it needs to keep Ukraine intact so it can get the minerals and resources out.

So it is extraordinary, as we edge into the fourth year of the war here, to have this basic bargaining at the heart of a security alliance that keeps Russia back from the attack. And I think the extent of Russian aggression emphasized by that record 267 drones fired last night, you could hear it in the skies over Kyiv, air defenses working, trying to hold them back. This is the nightly horror, frankly, that Ukrainian civilians try to sleep under.

And it is remarkable to see how the United States, for three years of this war, the key backer of Ukraine is now turned into a much more transactional partner, seeking to be very clear about what it can get from this relationship, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: All right, I appreciate that. Nick Paton Walsh, thanks so much.

When we come back, why Israel is refusing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners after Hamas follows through with another hostage handover. Stay with us.

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BRUNHUBER: Israel says it will delay releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners until its demands are met. The Israeli Prime Minister's office is calling on Hamas to guarantee the release of the next hostages and to stop the, quote, "humiliating ceremonies." A video shows Palestinians waiting for their loved ones to be freed at reception centers in Gaza and Ramallah.

Hamas is accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire deal. The militant group was expecting the prisoners to be released after it handed over six Israeli hostages on Saturday. This was the final return of living hostages under the first phase of the agreement. The remains of four more hostages are set to be released next week.

While crowds are gathering in Beirut, Hezbollah prepares to hold a mass funeral for its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah. He led the Iran- backed militant group for more than 30 years. The ceremony will take place at Lebanon's largest sports arena. Nasrallah was temporarily buried next to his son after being killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut last September.

I want to bring in CNN's Paula Hancocks, who joins us now live from Abu Dhabi. So, Paula, why is this memorial happening now, and what message is Hezbollah hoping to send?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kim, this is clearly a timing where the group feels that it is able to carry out this funeral. It was not believed to be possible during the war between Israel and Hezbollah for fear that those who came to any funeral would be targeted themselves. So it's been almost five months since Hassan Nasrallah was killed in that Israeli airstrike, and it was a significant blow to the group itself.

And, of course, it came in tandem with much of the political and military leadership of Hezbollah being decimated as well. So what we understand from Hezbollah that they will want to see today is significant crowds coming out, believing that they want tens of thousands of Hezbollah supporters to be able to show that there is still support for this group in Lebanon itself and to be able to show that the group is still functioning.

Of course, it is a shadow of its former self since that war with Israel, we understand, but this will really be a chance for the group to show -- a show of force, to show that there are significant numbers who still support Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It will also be interesting to see exactly which VIPs turn up. For example, we are expecting VIPs from Iran and some of the other countries that are part of the so-called axis of resistance. So that will be another thing we will be watching out for.

Meanwhile, we still don't have timing at this point on when exactly Israel will be releasing more than 600 Palestinian prisoners that it was supposed to release on Saturday. The Israeli government saying that it was going to postpone that release until it had guarantees from Hamas that any future hostage releases would not have what they called humiliating ceremonies and public displays that demean the dignity of those hostages.

[05:25:15] We did see six Israeli hostages being released on Saturday. A number of them were taken up onto a stage and some of them were made to speak. And this is something that Israel says it does not want to see. But there were supposed to be some 620 Palestinian prisoners released on Saturday in return for those six hostages, 23 children and one woman. We did hear from some of the families of those that were waiting.

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BADER ABU ALLA, FAMILY MEMBER OF PRISONER SET TO BE RELEASE (through translator): We were surprised to see that there is a delay. We do not know the reason for the delay. This time that passes is burdening us. It's heavy. Every minute feels like an hour or day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANCOCKS: Now, less than 500 of those were expected to be handed back to Gaza. The vast majority of them have been arrested since the October 7th attacks. Kim?

BRUNHUBER: All right. Paula Hancocks in Abu Dhabi. Thank you so much.

Well, the polls are open right now in Germany and voters are casting ballots for new leadership with the economy and immigration front of mind. We'll go live to Berlin next.

Plus, a sobering reality. What it could mean for your margarita when tariffs go into effect on Canada and Mexico on March 4th, the height of Mardi Gras. Stay with us.

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[05:30:00]

BRUNHUBER: Welcome back to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada and around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. This is CNN Newsroom.

One month into the Trump presidency, Americans are growing increasingly concerned about the future of the U.S. economy and more precisely the impact it's having on their household finances. New reporting from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment dropped more than expected to a 15-month low in February.

Now that's a startling turnaround from the economic optimism shown after Trump's November election win. And fears of growing inflation are driving consumer confidence down as Americans worry about how the president's plan for steep tariffs will impact prices. Still, Trump continues to sing the praises of his controversial strategy. Here he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We're going to have so much money coming in from tariffs. Oh, you're going to say your senators and your congressmen are going to say, please, sir, please, you're making us look so bad. We have so much money coming in. I didn't know this was going to happen. Please don't do this to us. We look very bad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Trump is obviously quite optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy. So why don't more U.S. consumers share his enthusiasm? Well, I put that question to Connor Lokar, a Senior Forecaster and Senior Economic Consulting speaker at ITR Economics. Here he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CONNOR LOKAR, SENIOR FORECASTER AND SENIOR ECONOMIC CONSULTING SPEAKER, ITR ECONOMICS: I think it goes down to the rising inflation, you know, expectations. And I think a lot of that expectation shift owes to the recent tariff announcements.

Now, the most important thing with any government policy, economic or otherwise, is you can't grade it on intention. You have to grade it on outcome. Now, in a vacuum, the intentions, the things that sound good, right, we're going to further incent the on and reshoring of foreign production back to the U.S. market, create jobs for the U.S. worker and U.S. manufacturing, drive a more resilient supply chain, and ultimately, you know, put us in a stronger position and, you know, as mentioned in the lead-in there, you know, maybe generate some additional incremental government revenue.

But as always, the devil is in the unintended economic details and outcomes. And among other things, it carries the prospect of an escalation of global trade war, retaliatory tariffs, fraying diplomatic relations with our trading partners. And ultimately, again, the primary concern why I'm here this morning is inflation concerns. And we think that's a legitimate concern that this will drive some additional incremental inflation pressure. And obviously, that was a lightning rod last year, and it appears it's going to be one this year as well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Now, consumers aren't the only ones who are worried. Fears of the looming tariffs are already taking a toll on producers in Canada and Mexico. CNN's Isabel Rosales reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISABEL ROSALES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If you enjoy a margarita every once in a while, frozen or on the rocks with lime juice and tequila, you're not alone. In fact, tequila is the second most popular spirit by revenue in the U.S., just behind vodka. And the U.S. brings in more of it than any other nation, but soon your spicy marg could get pricier.

Tequila, mezcal and your favorite beer brands like Modelo and Corona, all of them are made in Mexico. But Mexico, along with Canada, is a prime target of President Trump's recent tariff barrage. And while for now, it's mostly talk, their businesses are already feeling the wait. A plan to impose 25% duties on Mexican and Canadian imports is currently in the midst of a month long pause while negotiations take place.

TRUMP: President Sheinbaum is a woman. I like her very much. They have agreed to put in 10,000 soldiers permanently, like forever, 10,000 soldiers at their side of the border, and stop fentanyl and illegal aliens from coming into our country. We haven't agreed on tariffs yet, and maybe we will, maybe we won.

ROSALES (voice-over): But at this Mexican distillery, the delay on a tariff decision is hardly good news. While the North American nations talk it out, woman owned and operated as they go, wines and liquors, is stuck in a holding pattern, because owner Melly Barajas has to plan everything from sourcing to hiring months in advance, she's left to play a waiting game.

MELLY BARAJAS, AZTECA WINES AND LIQUORS (through translator): We were put on hold until March. Do you get me? The uncertainty is affecting the girls, the whole production system, everything we have worked for during so many years because of a tariff.

ROSALES (voice-over): Well operations like Azteca's are on hold, other alcohol companies with Mexico and Canada based products are looking at expediting their exports before the tariffs actually hit, but it's a short-term solution to what could become a permanent problem, and for Barajas, her business cannot function in the uncertainty.

BARAJAS (through translator): I wish they would let us work, that they let us bring that bread to our homes, and that the people who are our leaders sit down to make agreements. They are agreements that must exist in societies and companies and marriages, so sit down to negotiate. Let us work.

[05:35:03]

ROSALES (voice-over): With Trump's delayed tariff decision deadline quickly approaching, businesses like Azteca Wines and Liquors can only hope they won't soon be forced to pay the price.

Isabel Rosales, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BRUNHUBER: Germans are heading to the polls right now, casting ballots that will determine the future of the country's government. Now, the vote comes three months after incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz called and lost a confidence vote. It's expected that the Christian Democratic Union will become the country's largest political party again after three years in opposition.

The AfD is on track to become Germany's second largest party, and that would be the first time since the Nazi era that the far right has taken such a large share of the vote.

CNN Senior International Correspondent Fred Pleitgen joins me now from Berlin. So Fred, explain exactly where you are there. The polls just opened a few hours ago, of course, and take us through what we're expecting.

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi there, Kim. Yeah, I'm in polling station 129 in central Berlin in the cafeteria of the famed Humboldt University. And I'm told that this is actually also the polling station that Angela Merkel usually goes to. She lives right around the corner from here. And of course, Angela Merkel's successor as the head of the Conservative Party, Friedrich Merz, is projected to have a very strong turnout. We have heard that he has already cast his ballot as well. He, of course, is from the western part of Germany. And Angela Merkel's successor as chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, has also already cast his ballot as well after taking a jog in central Berlin.

At the same time, of course, in all seriousness, this is an election that many people here take extremely seriously. They believe that it's going to be key to really defining the future of this country and where this country goes, because right now there is a lot of political turmoil here in Germany. Migration is a big issue for a lot of people here on the ground, but then also the economic situation of the country. Two years in a row now in recession, and in general, pretty bad vibes, especially coming from Germany's very large and very powerful manufacturing sector, which, by the way, also has to do with the fact that there is also an issue about energy policy here in this country as well.

One of the things that a lot of people have been talking to us about, though, and saying that it's also something that really weighs on them is the international situation. The situation here in Europe with the war in Ukraine still going on, but then, of course, also the Trump administration in many ways, especially kind of almost picking on Germany internationally. President Trump, of course, saying some negative things. J.D. Vance, the vice president, coming out and calling Germany out in the Munich Security Conference. And, of course, you were mentioning the AfD. Elon Musk actively campaigning for the AfD, tweeting that he believes only the AfD can save Germany, and even by video link showing up at one of their campaign events and supporting that country -- that party.

So there are definitely a lot of issues that are at hand. And in general, people tell us they believe for them it's going to be a very important election. We do expect turnout to be really high, Kim.

BRUNHUBER: Right. And so beyond the support from Elon Musk, as you say, certainly the far right has taken advantage of issues like, you mentioned, the economy and migration. They're expected to make huge gains here. So walk us through exactly why that is and what effect, if any, it could have on the political direction of the country.

PLEITGEN: Well, they're projected to have about twice the amount of votes that they had in the last election. So they were about 10.1, 10.3%, I think, in the last election. They're projected to be above 20% and the second strongest force in the German Bundestag.

And I think for many people, the economy is, of course, one of the issues why some people are voting for the AfP. But migration is definitely the main one. And it's sort of the big issue that they always put out there when they are at their election campaign events.

So that's definitely something that is going to be huge here. Folks that we've been speaking to, though, a lot of them are saying that a vote for the AfD for them is more a protest vote rather than something that would say they really support all of the issues that this party has, because there are some that are really controversial, like the AfD being, you know, almost pro-Russia, definitely supporting Germany not getting aid to Ukraine in the future. One of the other things they want to do is also end green energy policy here in this country as well. And there's a lot of people who are not on board with that.

But in any case, it certainly seems as though they are going to have a very strong showing. And that could definitely create a situation where it might become very difficult to form coalitions in German parliament, because, for instance, the conservatives are projected to get the largest share of the vote.

But forming a conservative coalition could be quite difficult with 20% of the votes in parliament or the seats in parliament than being with the AfD, which the conservatives here have said they are not going to go into any coalition with. Definitely something that is going to make forming a government, forming a cohesive government and a stable government all the more difficult.

Kim.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah, interesting to see how that all shakes out as we wait for the results. Fred Pleitgen, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

[05:40:03]

The third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is approaching. After the break, we'll speak to one former Ukrainian official about the state of the conflict. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BRUNHUBER: With the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaching, officials are reaffirming the U.S. president's commitment to ending the conflict. But that comes as Donald Trump ramps up his antagonism toward Ukraine's president. He recently called President Zelenskyy a dictator and blamed him for not stopping the war.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is marking the conflict's anniversary with its own proposed U.N. resolution. Now, in the U.S. version, there's no condemnation of Russia or acknowledgement of Ukrainian territorial integrity. And the Kremlin isn't relenting in its air attacks on the war-torn country. Ukrainian authorities say Russia launched a record 267 drones and decoys at five regions overnight, killing at least one person.

All right. For more on all this, we're joined by Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics. He is also a former Cabinet Minister in the Ukrainian government. He is in Kyiv.

Thank you so much for being here with us. So first, just to start on that U.S. resolution, the Trump administration has called on Ukraine to withdraw its resolution condemning Russia's war, wants to replace it with one that doesn't mention Russia's responsibility.

Now, I understand I've been seeing some in Ukraine are saying it seems the Trump administration isn't -- isn't far away from calling the war a special operation.

TYMOFIY MYLOVANOV, PRESIDENT, KYIV SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Yes, absolutely. And that hurts. You know, yesterday in the evening, I was staying with my wife and we all night heard the drones basically exploding, you know, hitting buildings in Kyiv, downtown. And it feels like, you know, we're now being attacked on both sides from the United States and from Russia. So, yes, Ukrainians are insulted. Ukrainians are outraged.

[05:45:00]

But I understand why President Trump is doing it. The only way to get Putin to the table is to sort of please him. And I think that's what they are doing.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah, some people would say, please. Others say it strikes of appeasement. And certainly, there have been no shortage of comparisons with Neville Chamberlain, quite frankly.

MYLOVANOV: Absolutely. It is, you know, kissing up to Putin. I've heard that. I've heard betrayal. So, you know, there is a range of opinion. And pleasing him or being diplomatic is the least, you know, least antagonizing. But, yes, there are a lot of parallels with the 1919 for Ukraine or 1930s for Europe, 1937. You know, that's absolutely true. And it does ring a bell here in Kyiv, in Ukraine, very strongly, unfortunately, for us all.

BRUNHUBER: So one of the areas of disagreement between Donald Trump and President Zelenskyy is this deal, I guess, proposed by the U.S. over the rare earth minerals and other resources. So the draft wouldn't include security guarantees. I mean, you're an economist. Take us through the impact of what a deal like this might have on the country.

MYLOVANOV: Well, the deal has what the American side calls implicit security guarantees. There's nothing explicit about it. Now, we have seen how much more explicit security guarantees in the Budapest memorandum have worked out for Ukraine.

And I think everyone is clear that no implicit assumptions about the security guarantees will mean anything, not because of specific president in power right now, but because of the history of the guarantees that the United States has provided and Europe has provided and, moreover, Russia has provided to Ukraine over the last 30 years.

So Ukraine, you know, is a bit confused and lost about the security guarantees. And until we see something specific on the paper, I think most people will treat it as zero security guarantees.

BRUNHUBER: Yeah. And then the other aspect of this is economically and, you know, what is lost by Ukraine. And, you know, also there's the politics of the deal. I mean, some in Ukraine have suggested the theory that Donald Trump is trying to get Zelenskyy to agree to a bad deal so that he's seen as selling out the country, which could lead him to lose an election, which is an outcome, obviously, that would make Putin very happy. Is that credible?

MYLOVANOV: There are three theories. One is that it's just ugly bargaining by the U.S., you know, very sort of Wall Street or New York real estate mogul stuff, you know, and the U.S. is trying to get the best it can. And the multiplier is positive effects, cleaning up the corruption issues in investment in capital markets in Ukraine and elsewhere will benefit Ukraine anyway.

And I sort of agree with that. But it's still, you know, then there is domestic political argument that Ukrainians will feel that their agency and sovereignty is taken away. But these are sort of more benevolent theories. Non-benevolent theories include, indeed, an attempt to replace Zelenskyy from power. Although this attack on him by the president of the United States benefited him domestically, his rankings are up. And the third one is that there is already some kind of deal behind the doors cut with Russians. And this is simply an element of implementation of it.

BRUNHUBER: So, I mean, it's possible a deal over resources could eventually pave the way to some kind of peace deal to end the war. Now, we're looking at this war entering, you know, the third anniversary now. Do you think there will be an end to the war this year? And if so, what do you think the most likely outcome is?

MYLOVANOV: I think most likely outcome will get dragged into this never-ending discussions. We have seen that in 2014, 2016. We have seen it before. I think there will be some kind of ceasefire, most likely somewhere in quarter two, quarter three. That's not going to be immediate. And whether we will get to any formalized settlement, especially if it's going to be durable and lasting, with Putin signing something, I put a very low probability.

So I would say another half a year for ceasefire and maybe never for a formal agreement with Russia. But that's, you know, that's just speculation, frankly.

BRUNHUBER: Well, a pessimistic, but perhaps realistic outlook there. I really appreciate getting your analysis on all this.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, thank you so much.

And we'll be right back here on CNN Newsroom. Please stay with us.

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[05:53:28]

BRUNHUBER: The world is warming and last month was the warmest January on record globally. But despite that, the U.S. has seen temperatures plummet. January was the coldest among the mainland states since 1988. That frigid weather has stretched into February as well.

Meteorologist Allison Chinchar explains what's to blame.

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ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: If you went outside at all earlier this week, you likely noticed how cold it was. But it wasn't just this week. If we go back to January of this year, you'll notice much of the lower 48 was below average for temperatures.

But we were really one of the few. In fact, if you look elsewhere globally, a lot of other places were warm, quite warm to be exact, dealing with the warmest January on record. But this can happen where you have one area that's dealing with extreme temperatures on one side and many other areas dealing with the opposite.

So now let's take a look at earlier this week. This was all the cold air that surged across the lower 48. And you likely felt it. Except maybe if you lived in Tucson or maybe Miami, where it actually didn't feel all that bad. Because this is what can often happen. When we look at the more long-term trends, look at this for February.

All of these light blue dots indicate the top 10 coldest February to date. Dark blue top five and all of these purple dots indicate the coldest February to date on record.

So why is this happening now? Well, a lot of it has to do with the polar vortex. Normally, a very strong polar vortex stays up north where it belongs. But sometimes it can elongate and stretch farther south, bringing with it incredibly cold temperatures. But it also will affect the jet stream that surrounds it. And that impacts more of our day-to-day weather cycles.

[05:55:07]

However, even though you get these brief cold blasts that will come and go, overall winter is actually warmer. And especially if you look at the eastern half of the country, it has warmed quite a bit over the last several decades. By as much as five degrees warmer for all of those seasons.

Now, in the short term, we are also going to see temperatures warming back up. As we head into next week, finally, most of the U.S. is seeing those temperatures above average instead of on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Take New York, for example. The high on Sunday, 43 degrees, jumping all the way up to 54 by the time we get to Tuesday. Atlanta, looking at a high on Sunday of 58 degrees, but back into the 70s by the time we get to Tuesday.

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BRUNHUBER: Endangered sea turtles are showing up in mass numbers on a beach in eastern India. The olive ridley turtles come to one of three beaches in Odisha every year to nest. This year, their numbers reached record high, an estimated 700,000. Turtle experts say the mass nesting will continue until February 25th.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DHRITIMAN MUKHERJEE, WILDLIFE AND CONSERVATION PHOTOGRAPHER: The numbers of olive ridleys come here every year. That is amazing. I mean, we feel like lucky that it is happening in India. So this is not only the biggest nesting colony of India, one of the biggest in the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRUNHUBER: Authorities have fenced off the area where the olive ridley turtles are nesting. They're listed as an endangered species by the World Conservation Union due to declining numbers. But here, each female turtle digs a hole in the sand to lay over 100 eggs that will hatch in about 50 days.

All right, that wraps this hour of CNN Newsroom. I'm Kim Brunhuber. CNN This Morning is coming up after a quick break.

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