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Steve Witkoff Arrives in Russia for Peace Talks; Pope Leo is in Lebanon for the Second Half of His First Apostolic Trip; Ahead of Tennessee's 7th Congressional District Special Election, Democrats will Attempt to Flip Seat in Congress. Aired 3-4a ET

Aired December 01, 2025 - 03:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[03:00:00]

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BEN HUNTE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, wherever you are in the world, you are now in the "CNN Newsroom" with me, Ben Hunte, in Atlanta, and it is so good to have you with me.

Coming up on the show, the United States is sending Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia today, while President Donald Trump says a deal to end the war could be close.

The first international trip of Pope Leo's papacy takes him to Lebanon. We'll go live to Beirut for an update.

And President Trump says he's looking at denaturalizing some American citizens, how his views on immigration are impacting U.S. policy and possibly future elections.

UNKNOWN (voice-over): Live from Atlanta, this is "CNN Newsroom" with Ben Hunte.

HUNTE: Welcome.

U.S. President Donald Trump is sending his Special Envoy to Moscow on Monday for talks to end the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin confirms Russian President Vladimir Putin will receive Steve Witkoff sometime this week.

Trump says negotiations over the U.S.-backed peace plan are going well and that he thinks an agreement is possible soon. But his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is sending a more cautious message. On Sunday, he, Steve Witkoff, and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, held talks of high-level Ukrainian officials in Florida.

Here's how Rubio is framing their progress.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARCO RUBIO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: This is comprehensive, what we're working on here today. It's not just about the terms that ends fighting. It's about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva. I think we continued that work in our communications throughout the week.

I think we built on that again today, but there's more work to be done. This is delicate, it's complicated. There are a lot of moving parts and obviously, there's another party involved here that will have to be a part of the equation.

And that'll continue later this week when Mr. Witkoff travels to Moscow.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNTE: CNN's Betsy Klein brings us the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETSY KLEIN, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: President Trump told reporters on Air Force One Sunday evening that he still believes there is a good chance that a deal can be made to end Russia's war in Ukraine. And he says he was briefed by Secretary Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff after they emerged from talks with top Ukrainian officials near Miami.

Listen.

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: Ukraine's got some difficult little problems, some difficult problems, but I think Russia would like to see it end, and I think Ukraine, I know Ukraine would like to see it end.

REPORTER: You just said that Ukraine has a little bit of problems.

TRUMP: Well, we have a corruption situation going on, which is not helpful. There's a good chance we can make a deal.

KLEIN: Those comments come after a top aide to President Zelenskyy, Andrei Yermak, resigned from his post earlier this week after an anti- corruption probe of his home, leaving Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians without one of their top negotiators, who has been involved in these very intensive discussions.

Now, Rubio, speaking to reporters after those talks, really tempered expectations here. He said that there were three key goals, number one, to end the war, two, to keep Ukraine safe from a future invasion, and third, to position Ukraine well economically. He said there is still more work to be done.

He called these talks delicate and complicated, but he did not lay out any specifics about what progress was made, Rubio also acknowledging this very challenging reality that Russia is ultimately going to have to sign off on whatever deal they are able to agree to.

There are three key sticking points remaining. Number one, the question of land and whether Ukraine would surrender key territories in the Donbass region that have been annexed but not yet conquered by Russia, separately proposals for Ukraine to limit the size of its military, and third, the question of whether Ukraine is willing to abandon its desire to join NATO.

Steve Witkoff, the President's top advisor, is expected to travel to Moscow on Monday for additional talks.

Betsy Klein, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTE: Robert English is the director of Central European Studies at the University of Southern California, and he's joining me from Los Angeles. Thank you so much for being with me, Robert. I'll get right to it.

As U.S. delegates prepare to visit Moscow, what are the realistic outcomes that we should expect from the next round of talks, and what could happen next if the negotiations fail?

ROBERT ENGLISH, DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL EUROPEAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: Well, realistically, they will fail, at least at this point. There's quite a gap to be bridged remaining.

[03:05:03]

We don't have all the details coming out of the talks today in Florida with the Ukrainian delegation. It seems they made modest progress, but probably not enough to satisfy Vladimir Putin, who seems to be essentially saying, I don't need to make concessions.

The longer this war goes on, the more territory I take, and you'll be back at the table in six months in an even weaker position. So I expect a very hard line from Moscow, and it's going to take an enormous amount of work by the U.S. side, by Witkoff, to get the Russians to budge much and meet the Ukrainian side, even anything close to halfway on the territorial issue.

HUNTE: Some people on social media have been surprised by the lack of leaks or public statements. Could the silence actually be a positive sign that serious negotiations are happening behind closed doors, though?

ENGLISH: Yes, absolutely. And that's been a welcome change from previous rounds, when there were leaks and tweets and attempts to turn public opinion, pressure the other side one way or the other. That's pretty unprofessional and unproductive.

So I was pleased to see that we've had essentially silence, and the negotiators are trying to reach something comprehensive without additional public pressure. But it still means that even if there's a unified Russian, I'm sorry, American and Ukrainian position, will that be enough to go to Moscow and find common ground with Vladimir Putin?

And we won't know until we see that in action. But pretty skeptical that we can do this quickly.

HUNTE: Well, on that, how much do we really know about concessions being made by the U.S. or Ukraine at this stage? Are there any hints about security guarantees or support that's on the table?

ENGLISH: No, that's what we don't know. We have some broad ideas. The Ukrainian side has accepted that they're going to have to make big territorial concessions.

They're no longer insisting on getting all their territory back to the borders of 1991, including Crimea. They want the line to be drawn where it is now and not have to give up another inch. Russia wants hundreds of additional square kilometers, that entire Donetsk region, which they have formally annexed.

So there's a big gap there. And we don't know if there's a sort of halfway offer. And we also don't know on the business of security guarantees, the size of the Ukrainian army, the magnitude of weapon support and intelligence support from the U.S. and NATO.

They're working on that now. And that kind of broad support could make it a little easier for the Ukrainians to swallow territorial concessions.

But the other problem now is the weakness of the Ukrainian government and President Zelenskyy himself, having lost his chief of staff and chief negotiator and being engulfed in this corruption scandal. That weakens him and unfortunately, probably emboldens Vladimir Putin to push even harder.

HUNTE: Ukraine's position seems to weaken daily as Russian forces advance. How real is the risk that Kyiv could be pushed into a bad deal eventually?

ENGLISH: It's absolutely real. And if they come up with a deal, it will seem like a bad deal to most people in the West.

The only way to make it palatable is to remind ourselves, to remind Kyiv that it's still better than the deal that will come six months or 12 months down the road if they're even weaker, if they have lost European economic support, if they have lost American military support and public opinion turns against them because of all this wasted money with corruption. It'll be a bad deal. It will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow if they can even come to a deal.

But again, it's better than what will probably come six or nine months down the road if the war is not stopped soon.

HUNTE: Let's see if it does stop soon. Robert English, for now, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much, sir.

ENGLISH: You're welcome.

HUNTE: Pope Leo XIV is calling for peace and unity in Lebanon during his three day visit to the crisis hit country. It's part of his historic first trip abroad as pontiff. His visit comes as Lebanon navigates a struggling economy, political instability and defraying ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

The Vatican says it aims to foster stability and interfaith cooperation during Pope Leo's time in the Middle East. Today, he'll be visiting holy sites, meeting with religious leaders and will join a gathering of young people in Beirut's Martyrs Square.

For more, let's bring in CNN senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman live from Beirut. Thanks for being with me, Ben. What is the reaction in Lebanon like so far to Pope Leo's visit?

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BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It has been very positive, Ben, for many Lebanese Christians as well as Muslims. This is really a break from a long period of very bad news where they can celebrate the arrival of somebody. Many Lebanese actually respect and appreciate that he's coming to Lebanon at that -- this very difficult time.

Now, this is his only actual full day here in Lebanon, and it is very full indeed. He has just arrived at Anaya, which is where the Monastery of Saint Maron and the Tomb of Saint Charbel are. These are two very important Lebanese saints recognized, of course, by the Catholic Church of which the Maronite Church is affiliated.

These are shrines that all Lebanese sects, you will often go there and find Muslims as well as Christians praying there because, of course, Muslims consider Jesus one of the greatest prophets. So they're really -- this really is an example of where people of Lebanon come together.

So he's going to be going -- he's there at the moment. He will then be going to the Shrine of Our Lady of Lebanon at Harisa, which is this massive statue of the Virgin Mary on a mountaintop overlooking the Mediterranean.

After that, he's coming back to Beirut, he'll go to Martyr's Square, which is at the heart of Beirut, now rather empty, but it used to be really the center of the city until the civil war began in 1975. There he's going to be holding an interfaith gathering of youth where there's going to be readings of the gospel as well as the Quran.

There will also be present leaders of all Lebanon's religious sects. There are 18 officially recognized religious sects, Muslim, Christian, Druze among them.

And then he's going to be going back up into the mountains to Bkereke, which is the headquarters of the Maronite Patriarchate. And then back he's going after that, he's going to be holding a private meeting.

No cameras, no reporters are going to be present with Muslim and Christian leaders. So it's a very full day for the pope.

Now, what's interesting, this is a pope who is fluent in English, French, Spanish and Italian.

Now, at all his liturgical events, he's going to be speaking in French, which is a language that many Lebanese speak as well. Otherwise, for other public events, he's going, as we saw last night at the presidential palace outside of Beirut, he is speaking in English.

So a very full day for Pope Leo here in Lebanon. Ben.

HUNTE: Okay, very exciting stuff. Ben Wedeman in Beirut. Thank you so much.

Let's keep going. Donald Trump says he's spoken by phone with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Coming up, the latest on tensions in the Caribbean.

And nearly 40 people are still missing in Hong Kong after the city's worst fire disaster in decades. Authorities are combing through the wreckage of ruined apartments, desperate for answers. See you in a moment.

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HUNTE: Welcome back.

President Trump confirms he recently had a phone call with his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, but did not provide any details of what was discussed. It comes amid growing concerns and finger pointing over the U.S. strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean.

CNN's Stefano Pozzebon brings us the latest reactions from Caracas.

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STEFANO POZZEBON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Nicolas Maduro is a former president of the United States. Maduro, the Venezuelan leader, is yet to confirm whether he spoke with the U.S. president, Donald Trump, in the last few days.

Trump did confirm it to reporters on Sunday. However, while appearing on television also on Sunday evening, Maduro did not make any reference to the alleged phone calls.

It was remarkable to see Maduro on T.V. here in Caracas because the last time he appeared on Venezuelan T.V. was last week on Wednesday that had led to some speculation that Maduro might have left the country or even hiding amid tensions between Washington and Caracas and Sunday's late evening appearance at a coffee fair in the center of Caracas seemed to dispel those rumors.

Earlier on Sunday, the Venezuelan president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodriguez, had accused the United States of extrajudicial killing, confirming to CNN that several of the victims of kinetic strikes against the alleged drug traffickers were indeed Venezuelan citizens.

Rodriguez did not confirm how many Venezuelans had been killed in the strikes. However, he had this to say about the U.S. policy.

JORGE RODRIGUEZ, VENEZUELAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT (through translator): As there's no war declared between our two countries, what's been happening doesn't deserve any other qualification than murder, extrajudicial killings, as nobody in the 21st century can think they are judge and executioner without any due process.

POZZEBON: The U.S. has so far conducted more than 20 strikes, killing at least 80 people under the accusation of trafficking drugs. However, the White House is yet to provide any conclusive evidence that these people were indeed involved in narcotics. And last week, CNN was able to confirm that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had called for a second strike after an earlier strike on September the 2nd had left survivors.

For CNN, this is Stefano Pozzebon, Caracas.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTE: Authorities are combing through hundreds of ruined apartments as they search for people still missing in a deadly building fires in Hong Kong.

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Rescuers are making their way through what remains of seven towers after a fire spread rapidly in one of the city's apartment complexes. At least 146 people were killed. About 40 people are still missing.

CNN's Hanako Montgomery visited the scene of the fire and spoke to some of the survivors about what they experienced.

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HANAKO MONTGOMERY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Before William Li could see or smell this fire, his wife called him and sent this video. Flames were engulfing their apartment building, she said, and he needed to leave now. But when he opened his front door, he was met with this suffocating darkness.

WILLIAM LI, HONG KONG FIRE SURVIVOR (through translator): I called my wife again. I said, I can't leave. The door is full of thick smoke, that's when my wife started becoming emotional.

MONTGOMERY (voice-over): William is a rare survivor in Hong Kong's worst fire in decades, an inferno that claimed dozens of his neighbors' lives. The videos he filmed while trapped in his apartment for two hours and the messages he exchanged with his wife shows just how narrowly he escaped.

William lived on the second floor of this apartment complex, and the fire was moving fast. In another attempt to escape, he covered his face with a wet towel. But in the hallway, he heard an elderly couple screaming for help.

Their home was already engulfed in flames after the fire shattered their windows.

LI (through translator): When I saw my window in this situation, I felt that this time I might actually die or I won't make it past today. I told my friends that I might not be able to leave. And if anything happens to me, take care of my children.

MONTGOMERY (voice-over): But then help arrived. Two hours after his wife's first call, firefighters pulled William and his neighbors to safety.

LI (through translator): My daughter ran towards me and hugged me and said, Daddy didn't die. That doesn't need to die. My son was sitting to the side and was crying a lot.

MONTGOMERY (voice-over): William's survival is a rare miracle in a disaster of staggering loss. But the fire took everything from him.

LI (through translator): My children grew up in memories that I created with my wife, memories of making this home. They're all gone.

MONTGOMERY (voice-over): The community in Tai Po is left reeling from a tragedy that will haunt them for years to come.

Hanako Montgomery, CNN, Hong Kong.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HUNTE: The shooting of two National Guard members is adding more fuel to the White House's immigration crackdown. When we come back, I'll speak to one attorney who says Trump's policies will only make an overburdened system less effective. See you in a moment.

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[03:25:00]

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HUNTE: Welcome back to "CNN Newsroom," I'm Ben Hunte. Let's check some of today's top stories.

The Kremlin says a Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will receive Donald Trump's special envoy in Moscow this week. Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Russia today for negotiations on a U.S.-backed plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine. His trip comes the day after he and other U.S. officials held talks with a high-level Ukrainian delegation in Florida.

Parts of the U.S. are set to see even more snow and rain after a holiday weekend of winter weather. Icy conditions cause problems on the roads and at airports, creating massive delays in travel. The new winter weather system is expected to make temperatures dip even further as it moves across the country. Pope Leo XIV is in Lebanon for the second leg of his first trip abroad

as pontiff. The Vatican says it aims to foster stability and interfaith cooperation during his time in the Middle East. Today, he will be visiting holy sites, meeting with religious leaders and will join a gathering of young people in Beirut's Martyr Square.

Investigators are learning new details about the suspect accused of shooting two National Guard members near the White House. The suspect has been identified as Ramullah Lakanwal, an Afghan national who entered the U.S. in 2021 under a Biden-era relocation program following the American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. He was granted asylum earlier this year under the Trump administration, law enforcement officials tell CNN.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the investigation is still ongoing, but had this to say about the suspect.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KRISTI NOEM, U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: We believe he was radicalized since he's been here in this country. We do believe it was through connections in his home community and state. And we're going to continue to talk to those who interacted with him, who were his family members, to talk to them.

So far, we've had some participation. But anyone who has information on this needs to know that we will be coming after you and we will bring you to justice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNTE: President Trump spoke about his immigration policies aboard Air Force One. He had this to say about the future of his administration's pause on all decisions on asylum applications and where he stands on denaturalizing some American citizens.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I don't think they're all third world, but in many cases, they are third world. They're not good countries, they're very crime-ridden countries. They're countries that don't do a good job, they're countries that don't register from the standpoint of success.

And we frankly don't need their people coming into our country telling us what to do. We have criminals that came into our country and they were naturalized, maybe through a Biden or somebody that didn't know what they were doing.

If I have the power to do it, I'm not sure that I do. But if I do, I would denaturalize. Absolutely.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNTE: Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who recently became a target of President Trump's outrage, called out what he considers to be Trump's coded language when referring to immigrants and asylum seekers. Here he is with CNN's Dana Bash.

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARK KELLY (D-AZ): This is kind of more of the same from this President when he says things like third world countries. What is he really saying?

I think what he's saying is he doesn't want brown people in our country. And that is disturbing and it's un-American. This President has an immigration policy right now that is not helping our country, that is tearing communities apart.

We need comprehensive immigration reform. He's kicking out people, you know, that came here legally that pose no threat to anybody. But go after the criminals, the drug dealers, the gang members.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNTE: Raul Reyes is an attorney, CNN opinion writer and "USA Today" contributor. Thank you so much for being with me. How are you doing, sir?

RAUL REYES, CNN OPINION WRITER, ATTORNEY, AND "USA TODAY" CONTRIBUTOR: I'm doing good, sir.

HUNTE: Amazing stuff. Thank you for being here.

The President is pointing to the D.C. shooting to justify these sweeping crackdowns on migrants from 19 countries. How fair or effective is that approach? And what message does it send to longstanding Afghan and other immigrant communities?

REYES: Well, from my viewpoint, it's a very misguided approach, because what the President is talking about is basically punishing an entire community for the alleged acts of one individual. So that in itself goes against our just basic principles of justice in the U.S.

And it also sends a message to other migrants potentially that say in the future, anytime someone that may be from their home country, from their country of origin, is involved in some type of crime or incident that they, too, could be suddenly at risk of losing their citizenship, their green card or whatever type of lawful protection we have.

And the most I think in a practical terms, what's so difficult about to comprehend in these ideas that the President is putting forward is that none of these ideas are necessarily going to make the U.S. safer or increase more vetting. But what they will do is make our very overburdened immigration system less efficient, less effective.

We have nearly four million cases in our immigration backlog right now. Many immigrants right now are getting court dates for 2029.

So these type of moves to reexamine green cards or applications are just going to just fill part of the system even further, slow down lawful migration.

HUNTE: I'm trying to understand what powers a President usually has or maybe doesn't have when it comes to reviewing asylum cases and green card decisions. Help me with that.

REYES: Well, in broad strokes is, you know, in the U.S., the president does have very broad authority over to make immigration policy. What he can't do is set immigration law that requires Congress. So when the President talks about potentially blocking people who came here from Afghanistan or other countries through the asylum process, that's, well, inevitably, it for sure lead to legal challenges, he just doesn't have that power because our asylum system was created by Congress.

And aside from that, when you are looking at individual cases of people, if the president wanted, as he has talked about, to reexamine people who have already been admitted or green card holders, it is extremely difficult to do what is called the denaturalization process.

That's very hard. And even if someone has a discrepancy in, say, their asylum application, a citizen's citizenship application, unless it was would have materially altered the application or was somehow a very serious element of fraud. The courts just generally do not allow it.

And, you know, for like 15 years between 2017, excuse me, from the late 90s to about 2017, the U.S. only had about on average 11 cases a year of people that the DOJ was trying to denaturalize. It was a very difficult and unprecedented type of process.

In my view, for the President to sort of throw this out as possible punishment to lawful immigrants is somewhat reckless. In my view, it just sends the wrong message that we are not welcoming lawful immigrants.

HUNTE: The President also mentioned deporting anyone he views as a drain on the system. In legal terms, what does that actually mean and should immigrants worry that using public services could now be held against them?

REYES: Well, in general, you know, it's a common myth promoted by some people on the right or some conservatives that the United States offers generous public services and welfare benefits to undocumented people and to immigrants. But for the most part, immigrants in the U.S. are not eligible for federal benefits.

[03:35:04]

Now, if we're talking about people who have children here, they yes, they can put those children who are citizens can access things like SNAP or Medicaid. But in general, immigrants don't use public services at high levels because they're not eligible.

So this is something of a myth that the president is promoting. He's talking about what they call the danger of someone being a public charge, you know, and that a person would be reliant on the U.S. government. HUNTE: In terms of what this is all about, the administration says all

of this will make America safer. From your perspective, do these steps add any new security layers?

REYES: Not really. People who come here as asylum seekers, refugees or even, you know, on ordinary employment visas, they go through significant vetting in their countries of origin. They have biometric exams, background checks, health screenings, all sorts of processes in their home countries and then when they're in the U.S., there are more processes that they go through.

The President isn't necessarily proposing any more security measures. He's what he seems to be promoting is that we will just restrict legal immigration.

And from my view, it sends the wrong message. It's also sort of it also is seems dangerous to use a horrific act, a tragedy to in order to advance a political agenda in order to, you know, say in order to scare people about immigrants and people from the Middle East or other parts of the world.

HUNTE: But now, Raul Reyes, thank you so much. I appreciate it.

REYES: Thank you.

HUNTE: All right. Move over, "Wicked," another sequel took over the box office for Thanksgiving coming up, just how successful the House of the Mouse was at bringing moviegoers around the world to theaters. See you in a moment.

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HUNTE: Welcome back to CNN and this is your Business Breakout.

The markets are mixed in the Asia-Pacific region on the first trading day of December. The Hang Seng rose about half a percentage point, approaching 26,000, the Nikkei closed down nearly 2 percent and the Seoul KOSPI was also down slightly.

And these are the business headlines.

Monday's trading day in Asia was paired with optimism over an expected cut to U.S. interest rates and the Japanese yen strengthened amid comments from the Bank of Japan's governor. He told business leaders the central bank will consider the pros and cons of its own possible rate hike at its next policy meeting this month.

It is Cyber Monday in the U.S. with online retailers offering tons of deals to attract post-Thanksgiving shoppers. And experts believe spending could approach record levels. This comes after online shoppers spent nearly $12 billion on Black Friday, up more than 9 percent from last year, according to one analyst.

Disney is back at the top of the box office with its new animated adventure film, "Zootopia 2." "Zootopia 2" raked in an estimated $556 million in global movie ticket sales over the Thanksgiving weekend. "Zootopia 2" debuted in the U.S. with $156 million in sales; that is the second-best Thanksgiving debut behind another Disney animated sequel, "Moana 2."

For our international viewers, "World Sport" is next. And for those in the U.S. and Canada, I'll be right back with so much more "CNN Newsroom." See you in a bit.

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[03:45:00]

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HUNTE: Welcome back.

While the year may be racing to an end, there is still one more congressional election happening, this time in Tennessee. Can Democrats flip a district that Trump won by double digits? CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, explains how this race can be a bellwether for 2026.

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HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: We can't make it to the end of the year without first holding a special election in Tennessee's seventh congressional district this Tuesday. And it is a ruby-red district.

A ruby-red district in which the Democrats should not even come close to winning. It had a GOP rep. Of course, that rep decided to step aside.

And it's also a district in which Donald Trump is absolutely dominating. I mean, take a look at his margins in the past couple elections. In 2016, he won it by 17 points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won it by 15. In 2024, he won it by 22 points. A close GOP win on Tuesday, while it would still be a win, would be a sign of weakness for the Republican Party.

So what do we actually expect on Tuesday in Tennessee's seventh congressional district?

Well, take a look here. This is the chances in the Tennessee seventh special election. And this is the prediction market odds, this is according to Calhoun, the prediction market.

Look at this. The most likely outcome is a GOP win, but by under 10 points, a 71 percent chance. Compare that to this.

Look at this. There's actually a chance of a Democrat win, a 15 percent chance of a Democratic win, in a district that Donald Trump carried by 22 points, 22 points back in 2024. So even here, if the GOP wins by under 10 points, that most likely

outcome is actually a very bad outcome for Republicans compared to the presidential baseline. We're talking about Democrats outperforming the 2024 presidential baseline by double digits.

Now, if this was just happening in Tennessee's seventh congressional district, what we expect to happen, that is a big Democratic overperformance. That would be one thing. But we've actually had five other special elections so far for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025.

And what we've seen in each and every single one of them is the Democrats outrunning Kamala Harris. What are we talking about?

Well, this is the 2025 U.S. House special elections. Democrats outrunning Kamala Harris. They did so in the southwestern Arizona seventh district; they did it in Florida - Florida one, Florida six; they did it in Texas - Texas 18th district; and they did it in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. in Virginia's 11th district.

So even a close Democratic loss, which is, I think, the most likely outcome in Tennessee's seventh congressional district on Tuesday, that would match a pattern of big-time Democratic overperformance in special elections. So far, they've been outperforming the 2024 presidential baseline by over 15 points.

We'll see if Democrats are able to do that on Tuesday. But at this point, it looks like the most likely outcome is Democrats outperforming the 2024 baseline by at least 10 percentage points. And that could be very good news for them come 2026.

Why do I say that? Even if they were to lose on Tuesday and Republicans were able to hold on to the seventh district, we'll take a look through history.

Let's take a look through history.

All right. Special elections and midterm results.

When a party outperformed in special elections since 2005, get this, five out of five times, that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives in the following midterm election. So even if Democrats are not able to capture the seventh district, it is a very good sign for them going forward.

Now, of course, we haven't held a special election yet. We'll have to wait and see what happens. And the midterm election is still, what, 11 months away.

But at this point, all signs point to Democrats doing significantly better on Tuesday than they did back in 2024 in Tennessee's seventh congressional district. And when you put that together with the prior special house elections this year, it paints a very good picture for Democrats heading into 2026.

(END VIDEOTAPE) HUNTE: Larry Sabato is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, he's also the editor of "A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election that (Almost) Broke America." He's joining us from Charlottesville, Virginia.

Thank you so much for being with me. How are you doing, sir?

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA-CENTER FOR POLITICS: Good evening. I'm doing great, I hope you are.

HUNTE: Amazing. I definitely am. Let's get into this.

We'll start with the Tennessee special election. The Democrat is expected to lose, but still outperform Kamala Harris's numbers. If that does happen, how much of a warning sign would that be for the GOP heading into the next cycle?

[03:50:00]

SABATO: It depends on what the margin turns out to be. Trump carried that district by 22 points.

So let's say the Democrat manages to lose it by 10 or even less than 10. That is a red flashing light for Republicans in the midterm elections. And they'll interpret it that way.

It's not simply who wins, it's by how much.

HUNTE: Critics say that President Trump is politicizing the D.C. shooting to push an even tougher immigration crackdown. But with public opinion shifting after massive ICE moves, is that strategy going to be effective?

SABATO: It's not nearly as effective as it was at the beginning of his second term. And you're quite correct.

He is more popular about deportation and immigration than he is on virtually any other issue. He's doing very poorly on the economy, for example. But it's not enough to lift his ratings.

The truth is that I think people have seen enough disturbing video of ICE agents arresting legal residents and occasionally even U.S. citizens that most people are having doubts about this whole process.

HUNTE: Let's talk of Venezuela, if that's okay. Tensions with Venezuela are rising, with President Trump threatening land strikes and Venezuela accusing the U.S. of murder. Has the president done enough to justify this fight with Venezuela to the American people?

SABATO: Absolutely not. In fact, public opinion is as one-sided as I've seen on any major issue in the Trump term. About 70 percent of Americans oppose any kind of military involvement in Venezuela because they know we could get bogged down.

And goodness knows, we've seen a lot of this from Korea and Vietnam on. So I don't think he's explained it. Most people don't understand it.

When he mentions a rationale, it's about drugs. And yet he just pardoned the former president of Honduras, who was convicted in American court of a massive drug trafficking operation. Now, if this individual should be freed, then why is it that we're so worried about what's coming out of Venezuela?

HUNTE: Well, on that, members of Congress, including some Republicans, now say they do want more oversight of Trump's approach to Venezuela. Does this signal tension between the president and his own party in Congress?

SABATO: It's finally happening. You know, we've been talking about this since the beginning of Term 2. Would Republicans continue to genuflect every time Trump appears, whatever he's asking for? Or would they start to demonstrate some degree of independence?

They'll never demonstrate too much, but at least a little bit. And we're starting to see cracks in the MAGA coalition and among the non- MAGA Republicans who really have been unhappy with many things that Trump has been doing, but haven't spoken out.

Well, Venezuela is one example of where Americans are saying and Republicans are saying, hold on, back up, let's think twice about this.

HUNTE: Let's switch again. The White House still sounds upbeat after the Florida talks on Ukraine, but officials say there is still more work that's needed for any real deal.

What is the political calculation that's being done here? Is the patience of Americans wearing thin that they would accept any peace deal, even an imperfect one?

SABATO: Well, I think it would depend on whether Zelenskyy is happy, at least mainly happy. He's not going to be happy with all of it. I don't think too many Americans are concerned about whether President Putin is happy.

But Zelenskyy has a lot of support, including in the non-MAGA Republican Party, the old Republican Party. Democrats and independents have been supporting Zelenskyy, too. So I think how Zelenskyy presents this, if indeed we ever have a final peace plan inked or at least okayed by both sides, that will determine whether Americans can move forward with it.

HUNTE: Okay, well, we jumped all over there. But as always, you expertly handled that. Thank you so much, Larry Sabato, I appreciate it.

SABATO: I enjoyed it. Thank you.

HUNTE: Well, if you thought it got cold in the U.S. this week, just you wait.

A new weather system fueled by even colder Arctic air is moving across the country as we speak. It's set to drive down temperatures in places already feeling the effects of winter storms, like in Illinois.

Chicago O'Hare International Airport ranked first for both flight cancellations and delays on Sunday, according to FlightAware. Hundreds of flights were disrupted on Sunday at that airport alone.

Now to week 13 in the NFL, and Sunday's action ended with a thriller between the Washington commanders and the visiting Denver Broncos. This one was close from beginning to end.

Washington's Traylon Burks made one of the best plays of the night. This spectacular one handed touchdown catch from five yards out. Commanders led by one at that point.

[03:55:09]

The game went to overtime. Denver scored an early touchdown, but Washington marched right back with a score of their own.

They went for two and the win. But a Broncos defender knocked the pass down. Denver escapes with a 27-26 victory, their ninth straight win.

And in college football, there's a major shakeup in the powerful Southeastern Conference. Head coach Lane Kiffin says he's leaving Ole Miss, the team he's guided for six seasons, to take the coaching job at rival Louisiana State University.

Kiffin led Ole Miss to their best season in more than six decades, and the Rebels are likely playoff bound. But with Kiffin's announcement on Sunday, he won't be on the sidelines as Ole Miss chases an elusive national title.

A painting considered lost for hundreds of years just sold at auction.

The artwork, Christ on Cross, went for sale in Versailles on Sunday and sold for $2.67 million. 17th century Flemish painter Peter Paul Rubens created a work which depicts Jesus's crucifixion. The painting vanished from public view in 1613, but was recently discovered in a sale at a private mansion in Paris.

It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas in Brazil. Thousands of people gathered along the beach in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday to usher in the start of the holiday season.

At the center of a spectacular light display was an 80 meter tall LED Christmas tree, that's more than 260 feet tall. The city's newest attraction also featured water ballet performances that synchronized the light show with the movement of the ocean.

And that's all I've got for you. Thanks for joining me and the team, I'm Ben Hunte in Atlanta. "American Pulse" is next, then there's so much more news in about an hour with "Early Start" and Brian Abel.

You are watching CNN. See you next weekend.

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