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Search for Nancy Guthrie Stretches into a Third Week; U.S. and Iran Prepare for More Talks; Back-to-Back Pacific Storms Set to Hit Western States; Rubio to Meet Hungarian PM Orban; Navalny Killed by Toxin; Partial U.S. Government Shutdown After Failure To Fund DHS; Jeffres Vows To "Strike Back" Against Redistricting Push; Kilauea Sends Lava And Ash Spewing Into The Sky; No Medal For Mikaela Shiffrin In Women's Giant Slalom. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired February 16, 2026 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[02:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us here in the United States and all around the world. I'm Rosemary Church. Just ahead on "CNN Newsroom," a new plea from the Guthrie family to bring Nancy home while investigators hope DNA results from a glove may lead them closer to a suspect. The U.S. and Iran are ready to sit down for more nuclear talks this week. The Trump administration says it wants a diplomatic outcome though it is ramping up its military presence in the region. And it is President's Day in the U.S. or is it? We will show you why not everyone celebrates the same way.

UNKNOWN (voice-over): Live from Atlanta, this is "CNN Newsroom with Rosemary Church."

CHURCH: Good to have you with us. We begin this hour in Arizona where the desperate search for missing 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie now stretches into a third week. On Sunday, Nancy's daughter, "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie, appeared to address her mother's alleged abductor directly. Here's her latest plea for Nancy's safe return.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE, DAUGHTER OF NANCY GUTHRIE, NBC NEWS SHOW HOST: We still have hope. And we still believe. And I wanted to say to whoever has her or knows where she is that it's never too late. And you're not lost or alone. And it is never too late to do the right thing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: This comes as authorities are still trying to identify the person seen approaching Nancy Guthrie's home on February 1st just hours before she was reported missing. So far, no suspects have been named in Guthrie's disappearance. The FBI says they are now awaiting final DNA test results from a glove recovered about two miles from Guthrie's home.

CNN's Ivan Rodriguez has the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IVAN RODRIGUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The FBI says a glove found near Nancy Guthrie's property matches that of a man approaching Nancy Guthrie's front door when he was caught on that doorbell footage. The FBI says that DNA from that recovered glove is currently being analyzed and could take anywhere between 24 to 48 hours. The FBI has described this man as anywhere between 5'9 to 5'10 inches tall with an average build.

Now, beyond the DNA testing, if the recovered glove is found to belong to that man approaching Nancy's front door, it could become an important clue for investigators to help track the movements of this person after they allegedly abducted Nancy Guthrie.

The sheriff's department is also asking neighbors who live within a two-mile radius of Nancy's home to check their surveillance cameras for any sort of footage between January 1st and February 2nd, and they can submit that footage through their online evidence portal.

Now, big obstacle for investigators has been getting that clear image and videos from other neighbors in the area because homes are pushed back from the road and there's a lot of trees obstructing the view here of the road.

Throughout the day, we've also seen plenty of people come by and leave behind yellow flowers of hope, hoping for Nancy Guthrie's safe return.

Catalina Foothills, Arizona, I'm Ivan Rodriguez.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: Earlier, CNN spoke with one of Nancy Guthrie's neighbors about the efforts to help law enforcement and how the alleged abduction has affected the tightly-knit community.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARIA HANDLER, NANCY GUTHRIE'S NEIGHBOR: The FBI has been very diligent. They have been turning over every rock. They have been in our neighborhood, streets. The main street right off Nancy's house is Campbell. And they are asking everyone. They have -- we've seen them in our neighborhood closer to our street. They have not asked us, but our neighborhood has as well looked for anything suspicious on our cameras, on our security alarms. And we personally, within the blocks around us, we have not identified anything suspicious or, automatically, we would share this with the FBI.

The Catalina foothills, we have increased communication.

[02:05:00]

Neighbors are texting and emailing, updating each other quickly if we're seeing anything unusual occur. There has been more neighborhood watch efforts, more people actively observing, reporting suspicious activity if we see such a thing.

Strengthening our home security systems has been a big, big plus in this neighborhood, and taking extra precautions for security for our homes, our family, our friends, and just being really proactive on security steps, motion sensor lights, street-facing cameras, outdoor cameras, alarm systems.

We in the Catalina foothills, which are a lovely environment, beautiful mountain views, but we are definitely revving up our security systems and making sure that this doesn't happen again. And we have to -- you know, we're getting Nancy to come back to her family and return her to safe and sound.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Joining me now to discuss all the developments in this ongoing search is former FBI agent Scott Curtis. Appreciate you being with us.

SCOTT CURTIS, FORMER FBI AGENT: Thank you.

CHURCH: So, the FBI is awaiting DNA results from that glove found about two miles from Nancy Guthrie's home, and the agency believes that glove matches those worn by the suspect in the surveillance footage found on Guthrie's doorbell camera. How long will it likely take to get definitive results and how significant might this all be?

CURTIS: What we're talking about here is that the FBI will run those results through their CODIS database system to see if that DNA profile shows up with anybody that has been logged into their database system there. That would be great if it does because that would narrow our focus to a specific individual who that DNA sample belongs to, not saying it would connect us directly to the perpetrator that we see on the Nest camera footage. That should take within a week or so.

The fact that we've obtained DNA from this glove is not surprising at all in the year 2026. I think it's to be expected. I would be interested to see if they could come up with some DNA from the outside of that glove. And it would be great if that DNA would match Nancy Guthrie's because then, we would have a more solid, direct link between that glove and the crime that occurred here.

CHURCH: Yes. And perhaps, they are checking that as well. And, of course, after more than two weeks now, no arrests have been made despite tens of thousands of calls into that FBI tip line and clues from the doorbell footage on the height and build of the suspect along with the clothing, the backpack and, of course, the gloves. Why is it taking so long to track this person down or at least get a little closer than what they appear to be?

CURTIS: Well, a lot of factors. I mean, we have video footage like you mentioned there. But, again, it's somebody concealing their identity and maybe that individual doesn't have family members who reside in that area or who can recognize that individual.

And the clothing, the backpack, the jacket, I'm waiting to hear what kind of sneakers this individual is wearing because I think that will also narrow down who we may be looking for. And from my experience, sneakers are something that people are not going to want to toss away and get rid of there. So, that would -- the possibility of linking that once we do identify somebody, linking those sneakers to that individual and to this crime would increase in significance.

CHURCH: And when you look at what we know so far, what stands out to you in this investigation and what questions are you asking at this time?

CURTIS: Well, let's go back to the original report and the original theories here that this is a kidnapping. From what we see from Savannah's latest release of the video there, clearly, there's no active communications between her family and kidnapper, alleged kidnappers or between law enforcement and these alleged kidnappers. So, this was a straight-up kidnapping.

Why aren't the kidnappers having immediate direct communications with the family, making it clear what their demands are, and the timetable of things so they can get what they want out of this situation, and then they can return Nancy Guthrie or at least leave the family law enforcement to her whereabouts?

CHURCH: So, what are some of the answers to that? I mean, if it appears that she has been abducted but there's no communication at this juncture or no apparent communication between law enforcement and the possible abductor, then what do you think has happened?

[02:10:00]

CURTIS: I think it could be one of two or three things. It could have been maybe starting out as a kidnapping, and then something went horribly wrong shortly thereafter. And after that, these individuals were looking to just separate themselves from Nancy Guthrie and hopefully disappear into our country or beyond. Or this could have been a home invasion robbery that went wrong and they decided that we didn't want to leave evidence of a more serious crime than just a robbery of a residence here. So, let's take her from the residence.

CHURCH: That is the greatest fear here, isn't it? And, of course, I do want to ask whether you believe any of those ransom notes are linked to Guthrie's abduction or do you think it more likely that they were efforts to fraudulently obtain money. And if they're not linked, then what does that tell you and what would be the possible motives for this crime?

CURTIS: Well, I mean, from what we've been told or what we believe here, there has been no proof of life at all from anybody. So, the fact that nobody wanted to prove that they had her in their possession and that she was alive leads me to believe that these demands that were sent to news outlets, TMZ, were not legitimate and not connected to her abduction.

CHURCH: Scott Curtis, thank you so much for joining us. So, we will continue to hope, of course, that Nancy Guthrie is returned home safely. Thank you so much for your analysis. Appreciate it. CURTIS: Thank you.

COATES: Well, U.S. and Iranian officials are set to hold a new round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland on Tuesday. Sources say U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to attend. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists President Trump is focused on diplomacy. But the Trump administration is ramping up its military pressure on Tehran, sending a second U.S. aircraft carrier group to the Middle East. Satellite images show the USS Abraham Lincoln off the coast of Oman on Sunday. President Trump explains why.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNKNOWN (voice-over): -- second aircraft carrier that you decided to send.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Yes.

UNKNOWN (voice-over): Talk about why you made that choice.

TRUMP: Well, in case we don't make a deal, we'll need it. If we don't have a deal, we'll need it. If we have a deal, we could cut it short. It will be leaving. It will be leaving very soon. We have one out there that just arrived. If we need it, we will -- we have it ready. A big -- a very big force.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: CNN's Julia Benbrook has the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JULIA BENBROOK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Over the weekend, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that President Donald Trump has made it clear that he prefers diplomacy when dealing with Iran and they are focused in on negotiations right now.

These comments come as we do expect the next round of talks between the United States and Iran to take place in a matter of days. According to sources who spoke with CNN, those talks will take place on Tuesday in Geneva, Switzerland, and both U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff as well as Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will be in attendance.

Now, Rubio did say that those two are going to be having important meetings soon and, essentially, we'll see what happens. As he said, the goal here is to come to a successful deal. He also highlighted the complexity of the situation. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARCO RUBIO, UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF STATE: We're dealing with people who make geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology. And it's a complicated thing. I mean, no one has ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran. But we're going to try. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be traveling. I think they're traveling right now to have important meetings, and we'll see how that turns out. And we'll always comply with the applicable laws of the United States in terms of involving Congress in any decisions. But right now, we're not talking about any of that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BENBROOK: The United States recently dispatched a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East which Trump says is in place if they are not able to reach diplomatic solution. He did say those ships would depart if a solution is reached.

Traveling with the president in Florida, Julia Benbrook, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: In the United States, multiple storm systems are lining up to hit the Pacific Coast, bringing heavy rains and winter weather advisories as they move inland. CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar has the forecast.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Winter weather alerts are already in place across portions of California, Nevada, as well as Oregon as they brace for not one but two systems that are set to arrive in the coming days.

Now, the first wave already started to spread across portions of northern and central California Sunday evening. Now, the bulk of that moisture is expected to spread eastward into the next 24 to 48 hours. You can see by Monday morning local time areas of central and even southern California starting to see their rain chances increase as well as snow. By later on into the afternoon and certainly by the evening, more of that moisture spreads into portions of the Intermountain West and into the Rockies.

[02:15:00]

But at the same time, the secondary system is right on the heels, meaning that some of these areas really aren't going to get much of a break in between the two systems. There is the potential for flooding due to the excessive rainfall. That highest risk is going to be right here, stretching from San Francisco all the way down to San Diego, and that does include the greater Los Angeles area. By the time we push into Tuesday, most of the focus is really just going to be in Southern California for that flood threat.

Now, overall, we are talking pretty substantial amounts of rain and snow for many of these areas. Rain is going to be highest along the coastal regions of Oregon as well as northern and central California, where we could be looking at two to five inches of rain.

Snowpack is going to be measured in feet across not only the Sierras, but also into the Rockies. And the Rockies desperately need it. In fact, much of this western region here is actually dealing with portions of severe and even extreme drought. California not so much, but they desperately need to see some more of that increased snowpack, and it looks like they're going to get it across portions of Colorado.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: Still to come, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Hungary right now and is expected to meet with the country's far-right prime minister. We will bring you the details. Plus, we'll have more about the rare toxin that European officials say was used to poison Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. Back with that and more in just a moment.

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[02:20:00]

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CHURCH: U.S. Secretary State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the coming hours. Rubio arrived in Budapest on Sunday as part of his European trip. Earlier that day, he was in Slovakia where he said the White House does not want Europe to be dependent on the U.S. but wants it to be a partner.

Hungary's far-right prime minister has a good relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. In November, Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions for buying Russian oil and gas.

The United States top diplomat told European allies at the Munich Security Conference that they -- quote -- "belong together." CNN's Fred Pleitgen wraps up the most important moments of that conference.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: High- stakes security conference coming to an end here in Munich, Germany. Of course, one of the highlights was U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his speech in front of the delegates here in Munich. And basically, the folks who are here breathing a sigh of relief after that speech. On the one hand, the U.S. Secretary of State criticizing America's European allies, but also extending a welcoming hand, saying that the United States wants to continue to be an ally of European nations.

At the same time, the U.S. is trying to move along that negotiations process to try and end the war in Ukraine. The next round of talks is set to happen in Geneva, in Switzerland, in the next couple of days involving, of course, the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia. Now, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he showed some frustration at the way the talks are going. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE: The Americans often return to the topic of concessions. And too often, those concessions are discussed in the context only of Ukraine, not Russia. Europe is practically not present at the table. It's a big mistake to my mind.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PLEITGEN: Now, when Zelenskyy speaks about concessions, he first and foremost, of course, means some of those territorial concessions the Ukrainians might have to make as part of any peace agreement.

At the same time, another big topic here at the Munich Security Conference was some bold allegations by five European nations surrounding the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. He, of course, died in a Russian prison colony under mysterious circumstances pretty much exactly two years ago.

And the European countries now say they have evidence that he most probably was poisoned. Now, I asked the European Commission's foreign policy chief about all this. Here's what she had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAJA KALLAS, EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF: It's not really surprising, isn't it? I mean, he's working like regular dictators are working. I mean, eliminate all the competitors and, you know, keep the power structures and oligarchs happy, and you stay in power, and you can do whatever you want even if, you know, the people are not pleased.

PLEITGEN: It's a long way to go, though, to use dart frog poison, isn't it? That's --

KALLAS: Well --

PLEITGEN: -- on someone who's in a prison colony, anyway.

KALLAS: Yes. But I think it also shows how the Russians are thinking, exploring new ways to actually use. So, this is -- this is the way they operate against their own people, against people in prison.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PLEITGEN: Now, the Russians have since come out and categorically denied those allegations. They call all of the things that are being said around the death of Alexei Navalny and Russia's alleged involvement a farce.

Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Munich, Germany.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: A former Ukrainian energy minister has been detained in connection with a major corruption scandal while trying to leave the country. Ukraine's anti-corruption bureau did not name the minister but said that the official was detained as part of the Midas case. It's a wide-ranging investigation into corruption in Ukraine's energy sector that sparked a major political crisis last year. Investigators said about $100 million had allegedly been siphoned off from state- owned businesses.

U.S. President Donald Trump says his newly-formed Board of Peace will announce a five-billion-dollar pledge for humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Gaza. He posted on social media, saying that members have also committed thousands of personnel toward stabilization force and local police to maintain security in the enclave. The first so- called Board of Peace gathering will take place on Thursday at the U.S. Institute of Peace, which President Trump recently renamed after himself.

A massive avalanche has struck in the Italian Alps, killing two people and leaving one in critical condition. It happened Sunday morning near Courmayeur in Northern Italy.

[02:25:01]

Officials say all three victims were French nationals. Rescue teams included a helicopter, medics, and search dogs. They work to help anyone who might be trapped under the snow.

Still to come, U.S. lawmakers clash over proposals to fund the Department of Homeland Security. But can they end this new shutdown in time to avoid disaster? Plus, with immigration operations ending in Minnesota, many are questioning the behavior of the federal agents involved. What the White House border czar has to say, that's next.

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CHURCH: Congress may be in recess this week, but some lawmakers are still pushing to end a partial government shutdown. Tensions are high as Democrats and Republicans clash over funding proposals for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The department shut down over the weekend after Congress failed to agree on a spending deal.

Democrats are demanding immigration reforms in the wake of deaths at the hands of federal officers in Minnesota. But one Republican lawmaker accuses them of -- quote -- "political theater," saying they shut down the government for nothing. The top Senate Democrat sees it differently.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): There's a simple answer to this. Republicans go along with these commonsense -- these commonsense proposals, and we'll fund the whole DHS bill, the whole Department of Homeland Security bill. Just go along. Again, I cannot repeat enough. These are commonsense. Police departments across America use them. We have a rogue agency. Why don't we rein them in?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: CNN's Camila DeChalus has more details on the shutdown from Washington.

[02:30:01]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAMILA DECHALUS, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, in the last few hours, we're hearing more from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers that they want to see this partial government shutdown end.

[02:30:03]

But they're still trying to figure out a deal that both sides can agree on in order to make that happen.

Now, the big issue here is that the Department of Homeland Security has really come under intense criticism in the last few weeks over the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by federal agents. And that's why you hear more Democratic lawmakers calling for reforms around immigration enforcement in exchange for them supporting a spending bill to fund DHS. Now, recently we had the House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries tell CNN that Democrats are kind of working on a counterproposal to send back to the White House.

And we are hearing more from lawmakers on both sides that bipartisan talks are underway to try to strike some type of a deal, but those details really haven't been ironed out yet.

Take a listen to what both sides had to say

SEN. MARKWAYNE MULLIN (R-OK): ICE and the Border Patrol is funded through the One Big, Beautiful Bill up until 2028. And so, the only thing they shut down is the federal agents, agencies that are named, like FEMA and the Coast Guard and TSA. So they're shutting down thousands of workers for nothing but a talking point.

SEN. CHRIS COONS (D-DE): The outcry from Americans has caused the White House to be willing to negotiate with us on reasonable standards of conduct. That's a positive. We need to see that get into statute before we vote on this last piece of federal funding. This isn't a big government shutdown. It is a hopefully temporary disagreement over the standards of conduct of the officers who operate under the Department of Homeland Security.

DECHALUS: Now, as a partial government shutdown continues with the lapse of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, that really does mean that critical federal agencies that have nothing to do with immigration enforcement, like the Coast Guard, FEMA and TSA, they will also be impacted. And the significance of this really is the fact that hundreds and thousands of federal employees under DHS will have to stay on the job but many of them will go without pay. And so, what you're hearing now is more urgency from lawmakers to get something done.

But where things stand right now is that both the House and the Senate side, they're not expected to return back to Capitol Hill until February 23rd. But GOP leaders tell us that they could still call back members of Congress if a deal has been reached. And so that's something that we're actively monitoring.

Camille DeChalus, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: The surge in immigration enforcement may be winding down in Minnesota, but questions over the behavior of the officers are not going away. At its height, around 3,000 federal agents were deployed to the state. Public outrage grew as cameras captured aggressive clashes between federal officers and protesters, including the shooting deaths of two U.S. citizens.

White House Border Czar Tom Homan says racial profiling did not occur during the crackdown, and he says federal officers wear masks to protect themselves. Homan also says he has ramped up efforts to follow up on allegations of misconduct.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM HOMAN, BORDER CZAR: I've seen videos and there's been pieces of videos and pieces of videos. In any instance where there has been allegations of misconduct or working outside the policy has been referred to internal affairs, my first press conference in Minnesota, I said I was bringing more internal affairs officers to review the allegations. And those allegations are now being investigated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Democrats are hopeful they can take back the House in November's midterm elections. But Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says they can't afford to ignore the Republican push to redraw congressional maps in recent months. In fact, he's ready to beat them at their own game.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY), MINORITY LEADER: Republicans started this redistricting war, and Democrats have made clear we're going to finish it. We're going to make sure that there is a fair national map. So, at the end of the day, it's the voters who get to decide who's in the majority. After the November midterm elections and not Donald Trump. When they go low, we strike back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: Ron Brownstein is a CNN senior political analyst and "Bloomberg" opinion columnist.

Thank you so much, Ron, for joining us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Rosemary.

CHURCH: Good to see you.

So Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is vowing to strike back against GOP efforts to redraw house maps, promising to spend tens of millions of dollars to back an April ballot initiative in Virginia that could potentially get Democrats four more seats. How will that work out, and who will likely win this redistricting war?

BROWENSTEIN: Yeah, I mean, the redistricting war, amazingly enough, is probably going to end in something very close to a draw. I mean, President Trump triggered it by demanding that Republican states undertake an unusual mid-decade redistricting, believing that it could net Republicans as many as eight, 10, 12 seats in the House of Representatives. But Democrats have fought back in California, potentially a seat in New York and now in Virginia.

It's unlikely that Hakeem Jeffries is going to have to spend tens of millions of dollars, I think, to pass this. I mean, if you look at the results of the election last year for governor in Virginia, it gives you a pretty clear indication that the electorate there right now is pretty cool on what Donald Trump is doing.

[02:35:07]

And as we saw in California, that hostility to Trump can be a very powerful argument for this sort of redistricting.

CHURCH: And, Ron, in your CNN.com piece, you write and I'm quoting here, the battle for control of the House of Representatives in 2026 will be decided primarily in Trump country.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

CHURCH: So, Ron, which specific districts will likely decide control of the House in the midterms?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. Well, look, I mean, Democrats only need to win three seats to gain the majority in the House. And so, they are clearly still the favorites to do that, because the party out of the White House has historically gained far more than three seats on average. But if you look at the map, Rosemary, Republicans are actually defending fewer vulnerable seats than is typical for the majority party during a midterm.

Eighty-five percent of House Republicans are in districts that Donald Trump won by at least five points more than his national vote percentage in 2024. And what I was able to do was go back and look at the history of even really decisive midterms that we've had in 2006, 2010, 2018. The history is that the opposition party doesn't win a lot of seats like that. So, the majority is going to be decided primarily in seats that Trump won by very narrow margin. There are fewer of those than there are typically but there are enough for Democrats to win the majority if they perform well in them.

CHURCH: So, Ron, overall what are you expecting to see happen in November given most midterm elections show voters favoring the party not in power mostly due to disillusionment with the campaign promises not being fulfilled? Will we see that pattern repeated? Do you think this coming November? And could Democrats gain enough seats, maybe more, to take control of the House?

BROWNSTEIN : Yeah, I think they can gain enough to gain control of the House. And the question, I think is going to be how big a majority and whether it's something that gives them enough of a cushion to govern. And also what happens in the Senate, I think what we're going to see in November, I think the very clear indication, we got very clear indications of what we're going to see in November from last November's elections in New Jersey and Virginia. And one specific point, I mean, what we saw in both New Jersey and

Virginia governors races was that over 90 percent of people who said they disapproved of Trump's job performance voted for the Democratic candidates for governor. And that is consistent with what we saw in 2018 and 2020, when around 90 percent of the people in the exit polls who said they disapproved of Trump voted Democratic for the House. And what that says to me is the key variable in pretty much every race is going to be whether more people approve or disapprove of Trump in that jurisdiction, and anywhere where Democrats, anywhere where a majority of voters disapprove of Trump. Democrats can be competitive.

That's going to be the key to that, whether they can gain a majority in the Senate. In Maine, clearly, a majority are going to disapprove of Trump. It's going to be hard for Susan Collins to hold on. The question is, what does it look like in the next three Democratic targets? North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska all states that voted for him. Is he above 50 or below 50 in those states? I think that's going to tell us probably which party is going to be in the majority in the Senate.

CHURCH: And, Ron, meantime the partial government shutdown continues with the Democrats calling for reforms to ICE and immigration policy. But their efforts are not stopping ICE operations from proceeding. So, what will be the likely impact and what was achieved?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, you know, as we've talked about before, historically government shutdowns have not been a powerful a sufficiently powerful lever to force a president to do something he doesn't want to do. That's the real asterisk here. What does Donald Trump want to do? Polling has become very negative on ICE, and its tactics particularly after the shootings of the two protesters, the killings of the two protesters in Minnesota.

So, does he want to use this opportunity to recalibrate even slightly to give some ground to Democrats on ICE? I think Democrats feel they have public opinion on their side and what they are demanding. But we'll see. As I say, historically, government shutdowns really haven't worked. This might be a situation where they -- where they are able to get a little more than opposition parties have historically.

CHURCH: Ron Brownstein, always great to get your political analysis. Appreciate you joining us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.

CHURCH: Many in the U.S. are celebrating Presidents Day on Monday. Or are they? When we return, we explain why the answer isn't so simple. And just ahead, we gallop into the year of the horse. China is preparing for what could be its biggest lunar new year travel rush on record.

Back with that and more in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[02:42:59] CHURCH: Well, scenes like this are playing out all across China ahead of the start of the lunar New Year on Tuesday. Whether it's by plane, train or automobile, China estimates a record 9.5 billion trips will be made across the country over a 40-day period. That is up about 6 percent from last year.

And it's not just there, Asian communities around the world will be welcoming in 2026 as the year of the horse, part of the 12-year cycle represented by animals. Anyone born on or after February 17th of this year would fall under that sign, as would those in 1990, 2002 and 2014.

People born under this sign are said to be self-confident and animated, also active and energetic and elegant, as well as independent, gentle and hardworking. And some famous horses include Nelson Mandela, Paul McCartney and Jackie Chan.

Well, while the lunar new year celebrations get underway in Asia, here in the United States, most are celebrating Presidents Day on Monday. Or are they?

CNN's Harry Enten explains why it's not so simple.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE0

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hey there. For those of us in the United States, the third Monday in the month of February is a holiday, at least for some of us. And for those of us who celebrate well, it turns out there's no unified way to call the third Monday in the month of February, if in fact it is a holiday.

What the heck am I talking about here? Well, it turns out its federalism at its best here in the United States of America. Some of us, in fact, celebrate Presidents Day tomorrow. But how do exactly spell Presidents Day?

Well, that's a bit of some debate in the great state of Hawaii, its presidents with an apostrophe after the S. Some of us, though, like in the state of Nebraska, the cornhuskers, get this, there's an apostrophe, but it's after the T and before the S.

And then you go way out West and Oregon says, you know, we don't need no stinkin' apostrophes. Its Presidents Day but no apostrophe whatsoever not before the S not after the S.

[02:45:01]

Of course, others of us don't actually even call it Presidents Day. We call it some version of Washingtons birthday or George Washington Day. What am I talking about here?

Okay. Celebrating who tomorrow? Well, in Iowa, Washington's birthday is celebrated. How about in Ohio? We say, you know what, in Ohio, in the Buckeye State, we want to celebrate two guys. So, we celebrate Washington. And of course, our 16th President Abraham Lincoln, who of course, was born earlier in the month of February. How about in Alabama? We drop Lincoln and we decide that we're going

to add Thomas Jefferson, two Virginians for the price of one. When it comes to the third Monday in the month of February. So, we celebrate both Washington and Jefferson in the great state of Alabama.

Of course, others of us don't even celebrate either the president or an individual president when it comes to the third Monday in the month of February. What are we talking about here? How about in California? Well, according to the state code, yes, it is a holiday, but no name for it, no name for it. It is just in fact, the third Monday in the month of February.

How about in Georgia, where of course, CNN was founded? Well, Washington's birthday is observed in the state of Georgia. But this year guess what? It's observed on December 24th not anywhere close, not anywhere close to, of course, the month of February, in fact, you're just giving them an extra day off just before Christmas. You're giving the state workers their Christmas eve off.

And in Delaware, the first state to ratify the U.S. Constitution, well guess what? They say there ain't no holiday whatsoever when it comes to the third Monday in the month of February.

So, what's the correct way to actually do this? Well, there's no real correct way to do it but if we go, we go to Google, we turn to Google, what is the most Googled version of tomorrow's holiday? Well, it turns out its Presidents Day. No apostrophe, of course. I will note here in the state of New York, it's Washingtons birthday that's celebrated. Of course, that's observed because Washington's birthday is on the 22nd of February, which means it can never actually come and fall on the third Monday in the month of February.

This holiday, a little interesting, but you know what? Happy early. Whatever you celebrate tomorrow, if in fact you celebrate it at all here in the United States of America.

Back to you.

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CHURCH: We got it. Thank you.

America's most decorated skier fails to medal in women's giant slalom. When we return. CNN's Coy Wire wraps up the day's medals at the Winter Olympics. Stay with us for that.

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[02:51:22]

CHURCH: Unbelievable. Look at this. Quite a show at the site of the Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii Sunday. An eruption sent lava fountains, ash and smoke plumes high over the mountain. The National Weather Service says the plume reached 35,000 feet above sea level. The lava itself has shot as high as 1000 feet, straight up. Kilauea remains one of the most volcanically active sites. The U.S.

Geological Survey notes that this eruption marks the volcano's 42nd episode of what it calls lava fountaining since December 2024.

Well, it was a great night for college basketball on Sunday. Number eight ranked Illinois beat Indiana in a Big Ten victory. During the game, David Mirkovich added 25 points for Illinois. In the end, they beat Indiana, 75 to 51.

To the professionals now, Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards has led his USA star squad to victory in the NBA's all-star tournament. LeBron James connected on this three pointer in his 22nd all star appearance, but his USA stripes team fell to Edwards and the youthful USA stars 47-21 in the championship game. Edwards was named the MVP and said he likes the new three team round robin tournament.

Well, one of the world's most decorated skiers, Mikaela Shiffrin, missed another opportunity to medal at this year's winter Olympics. Shiffrin was competing in the women's giant slalom on Sunday, but she'll have another shot at slalom later in the games.

CNN's Coy Wire has more now on the Olympics.

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COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Another incredible day here in the beautiful slopes of Cortina, where Italy's Federica Brignone continued to put up one of the greatest comeback stories in Italian sports history. Just about ten months after an horrific crash that left her with multiple displaced fractures in her leg, she's on the prowl at these games and I say she's on the prowl because there's a bunch of fans wearing tiger print costumes and shirts.

And Cortina is because there's an army of them who are embracing the growling tiger painted on the top of Brignone's helmet. She was like their catnip today, sending them into a frenzy, putting up two stellar giant slalom runs as she finished with a gold. Add that to the gold she took earlier in the super-G at 35 years old. It's incredible.

Here is what she had to say after the latest big win.

FEDERICKA BRIGNONE, TEAM ITALY WOMEN'S SKIER: The injury I have, I think it's not healing. It's impossible to make it like it was before. For sure. I ruined completely my leg and my knee and I said, okay no, I'm coming back. I always was more positive than it was and for two months I couldn't even almost bend but almost zero. My leg, it was -- it was crazy. I would exchange my two medals for -- to come back and not have this injury for this is -- this I'm sure.

WIRE: Now, there were high hopes for Team USA superstar Mikaela Shiffrin, the winningest Alpine skier of all time. She finished 11th, she posted on her Instagram just hours before the event. An old article that detailed the struggles she had mentally during previous competitions, maybe hinting that she was still having some of the same feelings. Now she finished 11th, but that was less than one second away from gold. To put it in perspective, just how close these races are.

She still has a chance to medal at these games. She will be competing in the slalom in the days to come. That is her best event.

One more thing before I go. Twenty-nine-year-old Norwegian Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo became the most successful gold medal winning winter Olympian of all time after picking up his fourth gold medal at these games, Klaebo added his latest gold in the men's cross country four by 7-1/2 kilometer relay, in a dominant performance to secure his ninth Olympic gold of his storied career. It's been an incredible game so far for Norway, the nation with a population of just over 5.5 million people, continues to dominate the ICE and snow. Sitting at the top of the medal table.

Back to you

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CHURCH: Well, after a thrilling ninth day of the games, here's where the medal count stands. Norway remains on top overall, extending its lead in the second week of competition. But the story right now is host nation Italy, climbing to 22 total medals, including its first ever gold in a biathlon event. It's officially Italy's best winter Olympics performance ever, surpassing its previous record of 20 medals back in 1994. Well done.

Well, a unique celebration took place in northern Brazil this carnival season. Revelers gathered in the city of Curacao for its annual carnival block on Sunday, block's a street parties that showcase a community's vibrant traditions during carnival. Participants here coded themselves in thick mangrove mud to highlight the community's ties with the regions ecosystem. The tradition dates back some 20 years amid fears the mangroves were dying on the rivers banks.

I want to thank you so much for your company this hour. I'm Rosemary Church. I will be back with more CNN NEWSROOM after a short break. Do stick around.

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