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War With Iran Expected To Dominate Trump-XI Talks; CIA Escalates War On Cartels With Deadly Operations In Mexico; Russian Ship Sinks In Mysterious Circumstances. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired May 13, 2026 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:30:00]

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN ANCHOR: It's a longtime ally of Iran and the main importer of Iranian oil. President Trump is saying that Iran's military has been defeated even as the war is in its third month. Now, earlier I spoke with H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies. Talked a little bit about Iran's current strategy and the capabilities.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

H.A. HELLYER, SENIOR ASSOCIATE FELLOW, RUSI: I think, of course, Donald Trump is overstating it. If he wanted people to think that he completely destroyed the Iranian military, of course he has not done that. But I think that it has been incredibly degraded. So there's no doubt about that.

They're certainly not in the position that they were before this war started. But also, it's not really as relevant as I think people think when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz does not require the Iranians to be at the top of their military game in terms of capacity. Effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz actually requires extremely little from the Iranian state.

It doesn't require all of its military capacity at all, all of its missile capacity at all. It frankly requires just a few naval assets and that would be it. Maybe some drones, because at the end of the day, ships are not going to go into the Strait. And if they cannot convince their insurers that they'll be safe and if their insurers don't believe so, then they won't insure them and they won't be able to go.

So it doesn't take that much in that regard. So I would -- I would caution about relying on these sources statements from the White House. I think we've seen reason to be skeptical of that multiple times. Not during, just, just during this war, but over the past year and a half. But it doesn't mean that this really has the impact that people think it does on the street.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANDOVAL: Now to a CNN exclusive report. The CIA is escalating a secret war on drug cartels carrying out deadly operations inside Mexico. Mexican authorities have maintained extreme secrecy around one such operation. But as Natasha Bertrand reports, the CIA is directly participating in eliminating cartel members inside Mexico.

But first, a warning. The following report does contain some graphic images.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: The CIA has been conducting covert and lethal operations inside Mexico over the last several months, CNN has learned, directly participating in deadly attacks on several mostly mid-level cartel members, according to multiple sources familiar with the campaign. In one such operation earlier this spring, a mysterious explosion blew up a car carrying an alleged cartel operative in broad daylight on one of Mexico's busiest highways just outside of its capital city.

Francisco Beltran was killed instantly along with his driver, their bodies found slumped over in their seats after the concentrated blast. Video and pictures of the attack on March 28th shown here show a quick burst of flames with the car continuing to roll forward, drifting off the highway.

Known as El Paine, Beltran was accused of being a mid-level member of the Sinaloa cartel, one of Mexico's most notorious drug trafficking syndicates, according to Mexican security analysts and sources familiar with his activities. But Mexican authorities have maintained extreme secrecy around the explosion, with multiple sources telling CNN that in fact the attack was a targeted assassination that was facilitated by CIA operations officers. An explosive device had been hidden inside the vehicle, according to the State of Mexico's Attorney general in a statement to CNN.

Prior to publication of this story, CNN presented the CIA with details of its reporting. The CIA declined to comment.

After publication, CIA spokesperson Liz Lyons released a statement to CNN saying, quote, "This is false and salacious reporting that serves as nothing more than a PR campaign for the cartels and puts American lives at risk, without specifying what aspect of the reporting is false."

The CIA's involvement in recent operations targeting high profile cartel figures like El Mencho has been well documented, though much of that activity has publicly been described as mere intelligence sharing. But the agency's covert activity inside Mexico goes far beyond those few cases that attracted international attention and involves much more direct participation, according to our sources.

Several Mexican government agencies did not respond to CNN's request for comment prior to publication. But after publication, Mexico's security minister denied in a statement on X that any foreign agents are conducting lethal, covert or unilateral operations inside Mexico.

The Mexican government is walking a delicate political tightrope. Under a national security law passed In Mexico in 2020, all foreign agents are required to disclose their whereabouts to the federal government and can't participate legally in operations on the ground. But Trump has threatened to deploy the U.S. military to Mexico if it doesn't do more to rein in the cartels. And the CIA's covert campaign, carried out largely with elite Mexican security partners but not always with the full knowledge of the federal government, preserves plausible deniability but risks creating tensions with Mexico's president when details of these operations come to light, according to CNN sources. Natasha Bertrand, CNN in Washington.

[04:35:14]

SANDOVAL: Now to the mystery of a Russian cargo ship that sank in the Spanish Mediterranean back in 2024. A CNN investigation now finding that ship was likely carrying nuclear reactors and that it may have been on the way to North Korea before it ended up on the bottom of the sea floor. CNN's Nick Pade Walsh reports in this exclusive story.

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NICK PATON WALSH, CNN'S INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT(voiceover): A mystery in the Mediterranean. The possible torpedoing of a Russian ship to stop the Kremlin handing submarine nuclear reactors to North Korea begins in a quiet Spanish port.

WALSH: This really is the craziest of stories about a Russian shadow fleet ship that sank off the coast here in the in the strangest of circumstances, his Russian captain confessed to investigators here that it was carrying two nuclear reactors, possibly for a submarine.

WALSH (voiceover): The incident is shrouded in silence, but concerns the most serious of issues, weapons proliferation between two nuclear powers and force being used to stop it. The Ursa Major ship loaded up near St. Petersburg in early December 2024 on paper bound for Vladivostok with a cargo of two huge cranes and over 100 empty containers. It made another stop loading two large manhole covers. It set sail a shadow fleet ship used by Russia in Syria.

The Portuguese navy followed it from above. You can see the blue covers here until just before it ran into trouble in Spanish waters.

WALSH: It was way further out to sea when the ursa major on 22 December 2024 suddenly slowed. And Spanish rescuers noticed this and they radioed towards ask if anything was wrong. The ship insisted it was fine and could deal with the situation.

WALSH (voiceover): But about 24 hours later it made a sharp deviation and issued an urgent call for help. The boat was listing, this video shows, filmed from a nearby tanker, but probably not going to sink too fast. The captain of the ship would later tell investigators he'd seen a 20 by 20-inch hole in the hull, the damaged metal facing inwards. He said it had been followed by three explosions on the starboard side of the boat, killing two of his crew.

WALSH: So the Russian military arrive in force and they tell everyone to stay two nautical miles away from their ship, the Ursa Major. But the Spanish know they need to conduct rescue operations. So they send this ship to pick up 14 Russian survivors who are brought

back here and that includes the Russian captain who it seems starts to help investigators piece together some of what's happened. But it's hours later that day that the mood Changes over the major ship and the Russian military fire flares over it. And then a series of explosions follow which Spanish seismic sensors picked up, and they send the ship to the seabed floor.

WALSH (voiceover): Moscow demanded their crew back. But the Russian captain told Spanish investigators something remarkable that the ship was carrying components for two nuclear reactors, likely for a submarine, he said, adding he could not be sure if the reactors had fuel in them. There's no evidence of contamination. He also told investigators he thought he would be diverted not to Vladivostok, but to North Korea's port of Rason.

Russia was in North Korea's debt at that time, after they sent 10,000 troops to help fight Ukraine two months earlier. And in December 2025, North Korea would claim to have built this, their first nuclear powered submarine.

WALSH: Everything may have been on the bottom of the sea, but the Russians weren't done yet. And according to a source familiar with the investigation, about a week after the incident, a Russian research vessel called the Yantar, linked in the past to all sorts of allegations against Moscow, sat down over the wreckage for about five days. And four more explosions followed, possibly the Russians destroying what was left of the wreckage.

WALSH (voiceover): In the months after, the U.S. may have shown interest in the site, twice sending a rare WC135R constant Phoenix, usually secretly sniffing out traces of nuclear activity in Russia's Arctic or over Iran over the path of the Ursa Major, weaving low at 5,000 feet. One had flown a similar route 13 months earlier, perhaps suggesting its routine. The aircraft's U.S. base declined to provide any details.

Spanish lawmakers have urgently sought answers, but got fewer.

JUAN ANTONIO ROJAS MANRIQUE, SPANISH OPPOSITION POLITICIAN: When someone doesn't clearly and fully provide the information that you request, you at least suspect that they are hiding something, of course.

WALSH (voiceover): So why did the ship sink? The Spanish investigation said the first impact was likely from a projectile called a super cavitating torpedo that fires air in front of itself to reach very high speed. Others suggested something simpler.

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MIKE PLUNKETT, SENIOR NAVAL PLATFORMS ANALYST, JANES: It sounds like a limpet mine. It sounds like a shaped charged explosive that was placed against the hull by somebody or something.

WALSH (voiceover): The Russian owners immediately called the sinking a targeted terrorist attack. They the Russian, Spanish and British militaries did not reply to a request for comment, and the Pentagon declined to. There are few Western militaries operating there capable of noticing, tracking and stopping a cargo like this. All sides, it seems happy for this secret to stay on the sea floor. Nick Payton Walsh, CNN, Cartagena, Spain.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANDOVAL: Weather forecasters, they're currently predicting devastating droughts and fires this summer in the northern hemisphere. After the break, a climate expert tells me why this year's predicted El Nino weather pattern could be the strongest we've seen in a while. Stay with CNN.

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SANDOVAL: Scientists are warning that fire and drought conditions are likely to worsen in the Northern Hemisphere this summer as El Nino weather patterns begin to kick in. That weather event is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ocean. A forecasters say that this year's El Nino has a chance of becoming one of the strongest that we've seen in nearly three decades. And they're warning that the El Nino effect could be amplified this time by the impact of human induced climate change.

So to discuss all of this, we're joined now by Kristina Dahl. She's vice president for science at Climate Central. Kristina, thank you so much for joining us.

KRISTINA DAHL, VICE PRESIDENT FOR SCIENCE AT CLIMATE CENTRAL: Thanks for having me.

SANDOVAL: Of course. I mean, this is certainly important for viewers around the world to be aware of, especially the more you read about this, the clearer the risk is. In fact, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian affairs said just this week that it is actually getting ready right now to protect people exposed to a strong El Nino this year and the agency forecasting that it could last until 2027.

[04:45:13]

From your perspective, give us a sense of what the forecast models are telling you about the possibility of a monster El Nino pattern this year. How rare would that be?

DAHL: Yes. So when scientists try to forecast when an El Nino is going to develop and how strong it's going to be, they use a range of different climate models. And each of those models gives us a little bit of a different answer. And most of them are about equally valid. They just have slight differences.

So when we look at the range of outcomes that are forecast for this year, most models are suggesting that we will be in an El Nino phase starting sometime this summer. And on average, those models are predicting that it will be a very strong El Nino.

Now, it's important to note that there's no technical definition of a super El Nino or a monster El Nino or Godzilla El Nino. But these models are starting to converge on the idea that this will be a stronger than average event.

SANDOVAL: So what does a, you know, for the sake of our conversation, a very strong El Nino look like for people around the world? What kind of extreme weather would we likely see?

DAHL: Yes. So one of the fascinating things about El Nino is that it basically redistributes heat on the surface of the planet. And as a result of that, you get weather patterns that are different in different parts of the planet than they usually are. So across much of the southern United States, we typically see wetter than normal conditions.

In Canada, we typically see warmer than normal conditions. In Indonesia, you typically see drier than normal conditions. But all of that is also dependent on the season. So, and really, every El Nino is a little bit different. There no two are the same.

So we can expect to see some amplified weather patterns around the planet. But exactly how that's going to play out, we might have some ideas from past events. But like I said, each El Nino is a little bit different, and you never quite know what is going to unfold.

SANDOVAL: And when we do see this El Nino weather pattern, what do we tend to see when it comes to tropical cyclones? Of course, hurricane season in the Atlantic and then also tropical systems in the Pacific. What does that mean for people there?

DAHL: Yes. So one of the silver linings of an El Nino event, at least in the Atlantic basin, is that El Ninos tend to somewhat suppress hurricanes. Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and that's because during an El Nino event, you get a lot more air sinking downwards from the atmosphere toward the ocean in the Atlantic. And that tends to prevent hurricanes from really developing and strengthening.

So, this season's hurricane forecast is really, you know, right around normal or a little bit below normal. And that's partly taking into account this developing El Nino.

SANDOVAL: Interesting. And then, of course, Kristina, there's the history element of all this. What does history tell us about the frequency, the intensity about these weather patterns and whether or not it may be directly linked to global warming?

DAHL: Yes. So this is a really active area of research in terms of how or if El Nino is changing in response to the global warming that's happening as we burn fossil fuels and warm the planet overall. El Nino is a natural oscillation in Earth's system. And an El Nino event typically happens every two to seven years.

There's non-conclusive evidence to suggest that climate change is making El Nino happen more often or making it stronger. But we do know that every El Nino event is now taking place against the backdrop of warmer temperatures overall. Right now, ocean temperatures on the planet are just second warmest on record for this time of year.

And so as we think about this redistribution of heat, this very intense warm patch of water in the Pacific Ocean, that is happening against this backdrop of warmer temperatures overall. And when we look at the last El Nino event, which took place in the winter of 2023- 2024, both 2023 and 2024 were record breaking warm years for the planet overall. And that's in no small part due to the fact that we had all this extra heat because of El Nino.

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So we can expect to see warmer global temperatures overall, particularly if this is a strong El Nino event that hangs on for a long time. But we really can't say for sure to what extent it's being driven by climate change or what the future might hold with further warming and what that might mean for El Nino.

SANDOVAL: And then just finally, when was the last strong El Nino that we saw?

DAHL: One of the strongest El Ninos that we had this century was in 2015 and 2016. Now, there are some models that are suggesting that this could be even stronger than that event, some models saying it might be the strongest El Nino event since the 1870s, but that event back in the 1870s, we had very different ways of measuring ocean temperatures back then. And so there's actually a lot of uncertainty about how strong that event was. But suffice it to say, this could be the strongest El Nino in quite a while.

SANDOVAL: It is a complex phenomenon. Kristina Dahl, it's so grateful that you could join us to try to get a better understanding, as this certainly has real world implications for people around the world. Thank you, Kristina.

DAHL: Thanks so much for having me.

SANDOVAL: And we're back with more after this.

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[04:55:20]

SANDOVAL: The world of professional basketball is currently morning the loss of two players who died on Tuesday. One of them is Memphis Grizzlies forward Brandon Clark. He was just 29 years old. In a statement, the Grizzlies said that he was, quote, "an outstanding teammate and an even better person whose impact on the organization and the greater Memphis community will not be forgotten."

No details have been released about how or when Clark died. And Jason Collins, the NBA's first openly gay player passed away after an eight- month battle with a highly aggressive brain tumor. He was 47 years old. His family announcing the news on Tuesday saying quote, "he was an inspiration to all that knew him and those who admired him from afar." In 2013, Collins made sports history by becoming the first active male athlete of any major North American team sport to come out as gay.

And a man accused of stealing Beyonce's unreleased music, pleaded guilty in an Atlanta court on Tuesday. Investigators say that Kevin Evans broke into a Jeep last July, just days before Beyonce was due to perform in the city as part of her Cowboy Carter tour.

Well, police say that the vehicle was rented by Beyonce's choreographer who reported hard drives containing unreleased music and other items were stolen. A surveillance camera that was shown in court appear to show that break in. Evans was sentenced to five years, including two years in prison, with the remainder to be served on probation. Authorities say that the stolen hard drives have still not been recovered.

Really appreciate you joining us. I'm Polo Sandoval in New York. The news continues with CNN Headline Express.

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