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Jennifer Welch is Interviewed about the Strait Blockade; Newsom Under Pressure; Trump Memes Post Controversy. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired April 16, 2026 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:30:00]

ALYSE ADAMSON, HOST, "AT-LYSE YOU HEARD IT HERE" PODCAST: Is more inclined to settle these matters than rather go to trial and be very aggressive in their anti-trust enforcement, which could potentially be bad for consumers because I don't think the settlement involves divestment, although we need to hear more about the settlement terms, although I don't think it means they're going to be breaking up the company.

I think what we can expect to see, however, is state A.G.s, such as Attorney General James, picking up that slack from DOJ. So, if DOJ is not interested in enforcing these anti-trust laws, we will see the states do that. And I think that this resounding victory in this initial phase is going to embolden those state A.G.s and even private bars of attorneys, quite frankly, to push these matters forward now that we see that there is a path to victory. And I think that's something that consumers can celebrate because Live Nation is only one example of a company that is operating in a monopolistic way.

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Alyse, great to have you this morning. Thank you.

ADAMSON: Thanks so much.

HILL: Still ahead here on CNN THIS MORNING, the White House says it feels good about the prospects of a deal. What if this second round of talks, though, does not result in a deal? We'll take a closer look.

Plus, the president's new monument facing its first test.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:35:48]

HILL: Good morning. Thirty-five minutes past the hour here. Good to have you with us on CNN THIS MORNING.

Here is what is happening right now.

The Trump administration feels good about prospects of a deal with Iran. A second round of talks still up in the air at this hour. If it does happen, though, it is likely to be in Pakistan again with J.D. Vance at the helm. That's according to the White House. Earlier on Wednesday, Pakistani officials arrived in Tehran for a meeting with Iranian diplomats in an attempt to bring them back to the table. They're set to meet again today, and they'll be discussing messages exchanged with the U.S. Pakistan, of course, acting as the intermediary here.

The Trump administration today set to submit its plans for a new national monument in Washington. A 250 foot triumphal arch. It's planned to go in Memorial Circle. That's near Arlington National Cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Great nations build beautiful structures that cultivate national pride and love of country, and this triumphal arch should be a project that all Americans of all political persuasions can support because it's a monument for every American to celebrate 250 years of our nation's proud history.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: The project is already facing legal battles, including from veterans groups who say this would obstruct key views from Arlington National Cemetery.

Severe weather continuing across the country today. Flooding and tornadoes expected across the Midwest. Taking a look here, these are streets in Milwaukee flooded last night. One witness says they've never seen the water this high before. And that threat of more storms is continuing into today. It stretches from the Ohio River Valley on into New York.

Our top story this morning is the war with Iran and a potential second round of negotiations between the U.S. and the Iranians. If it does materialize this week, what could it look like? What if a deal does not come out of those talks?

President Trump thinks it's unlikely given what he considers to be a wildly successful blockade of Iran's ports. A blockade which has already prevented at least we know a half dozen ships from delivering Iranian oil, which is a blow to Iran's economy. Iran has countered, though, with, of course, started off by closing the Strait of Hormuz, throwing a wrench in global oil markets, potentially dire consequences the longer this war drags on.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GENE SEROKA, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PORT OF LOS ANGELES: Typically, in our business, if a port is shut down for a day, for whatever reason, it takes about three days to catch up with the backlog.

We're looking at about four and a half months to return to some semblance of normalcy.

KEN GRIFFIN, CEO, CITADEL: Let's assume it's shut down for the next six to 12 months. The world's going to end up in a recession. There's no way to avoid that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at "Bloomberg," joins the group chat.

I want to start off with what we're seeing this week in terms of the wider economic fallout that we're seeing. So, the IMF released a report this week sounding the alarm, saying that they're predicting a fall in global growth if this drags on much longer.

The chief economist at the IMF spoke with CNN. I just want to play a little bit of what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND: If everything were to stop tonight and starting tomorrow we move towards reopening the Strait, rebuilding the damaged facilities, et cetera, we would still be looking at an oil shortfall for the year, the entire year, 2026, that would be on the same order of magnitude as the oil shock in the 1970s, the 1974 oil shock.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: That is something that certainly makes a lot of people sit up and take notice, putting it on the order of the same magnitude and, frankly, the reality of how long the recovery could take, even if things stop today. What is the planning for that? I mean how do -- how is the global economy going to continue functioning with so much uncertainty?

JENNIFER WELCH, CHIEF GEO-ECONOMICS ANALYST, "BLOOMBERG": Well, and I think that's something where you see a lot of central banks around the world right now trying to wrestle with this idea of how long do we have to look through this potential energy shock? Is this only going to be weeks long? Markets seem to be thinking that we're likely headed towards an extension of the ceasefire or even a lasting deal.

I think our analysis suggests that that's very unlikely to happen, even if the two sides return to talks. We're likely to see protracted and enduring threats to energy flows, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, but potentially extending into the Red Sea as well.

HILL: And the trouble with that too, right, with that potential out there for economies that can't -- I mean it's not that easy to shift clearly to other sources of energy.

[06:40:01]

How does this change -- right, we're talking so much about the impact, the widespread on the global economy, but it's also just global dynamics in general. Everything is shifting at once in terms of figuring out where to put the focus. That's also weighing on these economies and on these countries.

WELCH: Absolutely. And the pain isn't going to be felt evenly across the world.

HILL: Yes.

WELCH: You have, for example, Asian economies heavily dependent on energy imports that are suffering far more than the United States, which is a mass energy producer. Europe also suffering, wrestling with whether or not they're facing another 2020 -- or, sorry, 2022 situation with the energy shock coming out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

HILL: Yes.

WELCH: What I think, to your question on energy transition, this might create a potential strategic opportunity for China, which is a major producer of renewable energy technology. And I think the lesson learned from this crisis, similar to what we saw in the 1970s, might be an attempt to shift away from oil dependance. And renewable energies is most likely to be the area in which folks increase their investments.

HILL: If that is where things end up, how does that impact what the administration's plans have been when it comes to the focus on energy?

MIKE DUBKE, FORMER TRUMP WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, I was -- I was, you know, all this talk about electric vehicles, EVs going down. Turns out, you invade a country and get gas up to $5 a gallon and more people are interested in buying EVs. I mean, it's driven by the economics of all of this.

Whether we talk about the midterms, we talk about solar panels, we talk about whatever we're talking about, I think the unintended consequences were not thought out by the administration.

That having been said, oil is -- has -- is very resilient and seems to come back from the '70s, the '80s, Covid and all of that. So, I'm not as pessimistic as maybe "Bloomberg," but, you know, there is a -- I think there is a path forward. But these shocks are causing a lot of heartache.

HILL: Causing a lot of heartache. It's -- it's a fascinating message and I think you were noting, we're heading into the midterms. I mean we can't ignore the fact that November is very close. And we know that politically this has not been, so far, a winner for republicans. The question is, are Democrats actually harnessing that messaging in a way that the American people are actually going to sign on to?

MEGHAN HAYS, FORMER BIDEN WHITE HOUSE DIRECTOR OF MESSAGE PLANNING: Yes, I think that Democrats have continued to talk about affordability. You saw that in the off-cycle elections in Virginia and New Hampshire. They -- or, sorry, New Jersey. They definitely were harnessed on talking about affordability.

But I don't necessarily think that Democrats need to lean in so much to the war in Iran. All they need to talk about is, this administration is creating chaos. It's costing you more than it was before, previously, when you voted for this person, and they will win. This will be an anti-incumbency. I think we're seeing that a lot more. So, I think Democrats need to just not fall on their face. And I think they just need to continue to hone in on the chaos that this is creating and how it's affecting your pocketbook.

HILL: What are you watching for? I mean especially as we wait to see where these talks go, if they happen again. Who are you watching to see how they navigate this moment?

SABRINA RODRIGUEZ, POLITICS REPORTER, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL": I mean, I think broadly it's the timeline of it all. I'm less focused on what the president's Truth Social posts are and more on like what actual movement and action we see.

Of course, we know that the president is very keen on saying, you know, he's very close to a deal or this war has already been won or regime change has been accomplished. And you hear analysts and experts kind of disputing where exactly we're at. But I think it's seeing what tangible movement takes place. I mean is there going to be a second round of talks? Are we going to see the vice president getting on a plane and heading to Pakistan for these talks soon?

I think what kind of exact movement we see and less of like the speak coming out of the White House and more of what action are we exact seeing from Israel, from the United States and from Iran and all of this?

HILL: Yes.

HAYS: But also, on that point, the American people, I don't think necessarily care if there are talks or what the solution is. They care that they're paying less money at the gas pump. So, I think that we have to see the trickle-down effect. And you've heard the analysts say and experts say that that -- you won't see that for several months. And I think that's what's really going to impact the elections because they're not going to see -- even if they had a deal done today, people aren't going to see that for months. And it's just going to have a negative impact on Republicans. Like it would -- not having an end goal here was a huge mistake for the administration.

HILL: I'm going to have to leave it there.

DUBKE: I -- OK.

HILL: But if you -- do you want one last word?

DUBKE: No. Go.

HILL: OK. All right.

DUBKE: I'm good.

HILL: We'll move on because we have more to get to here on CNN THIS MORNING.

Just ahead, the turmoil in California's race for governor, now that Eric Swalwell is out. Is it time for Gavin Newsom to get involved to help his party?

Plus.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He should not be making a false idol of himself. No one should be worshiping Donald Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Donald Trump just can't seem to let it go, posting another A.I. picture of Jesus.

And still ahead here, RFK Jr. on The Hill. His vaccine views, the revolving door of leadership at the CDC expected to be a major focus.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:48:54]

HILL: The race for governor in the largest state in the nation, a bit of a mess right now. Democrat Eric Swalwell, of course, dropping out of the California governor's race and resigning from Congress this week following serious allegations of sexual assault. Before those reports surfaced, Swalwell was narrowly the frontrunner, gaining some traction, too. But two Republicans, though, as you can see right there at his heels, Steve Hilton, Sheriff Chad Bianco, as well as Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer. None of them far behind.

California has, of course, what's a -- known as a jungle primary. And now that's less than two months away. And there is increasing pressure on the current governor, Gavin Newsom, to maybe intervene. Could this be the time for him to speak up, to throw his support behind one of the candidates?

Maeve Reston joins us now. She covers California politics, is a contributor for "L.A. Material."

Maeve, it's nice to see you this morning.

So, there is a lot of concern. There was concern pre-Swalwell, quite frankly, that two Republicans could actually advance here and those would be the choices for Californians. Newsom has really kind of stayed out of it. Is it time -- is there a sense within the state that this is the time for him to jump in if he wants to try to save a Democratic candidate?

[06:50:02]

MAEVE RESTON, CONTRIBUTOR, "L.A. MATERIAL": You know, he has been so reluctant to jump in, but there are huge stakes for him as he looks ahead to his very likely presidential run in 2028. It would be a huge embarrassment for Democrats here in California if two Republicans were to advance to the general election. And that would, of course, give Republicans all kinds of power to dig into Newsom's record and potentially do lots of investigations that he -- the kind of messiness that he would not want in the middle of a presidential run.

But, at this moment, the race is so chaotic. You have, obviously, all of these candidates that are bunched in the teens. You've got tons of dark money that is flowing into this race. And even though a couple of the candidates were, you know, at the top before billionaire Tom Steyer, who spent, you know, more than $100 million already on advertising, and also former Congresswoman Katie Porter in the race, who's hoping to get a lot of Eric Swalwell's support. But they're so bunched up and there's so much money that is coming into this race, particularly there's a lot of tech money coming in for San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, that it's completely impossible to predict who's going to benefit from Swalwell's exit. And so that is putting a ton of pressure on Newsom and other top Democrats here in California, like Nancy Pelosi, to weigh in and try to push someone through to the top two primary.

HILL: For people watching from the outside, it may be somewhat confounding, too, that the state of California is even in this place, that it is such a mess.

RESTON: Yes.

HILL: And specifically on the Democratic side. Why has it been so hard for Democrats to find a candidate that more in their party could get behind, including the governor himself?

RESTON: There were so many candidates that -- much more prominent candidates that people, Democrats here were hoping would get in. Whether it was Senator Alex Padilla, who decided not to jump in the race. There was hope at one point that Kamala Harris would jump into this race. And so, these candidates are lesser known. They just do not have the kind of profile and haven't generated the excitement here in California that one would expect in such a high profile race.

And people are also just incredibly frustrated with government. The homelessness crisis here has, you know, people very angry after so much money has been put into it. Gas prices are through the roof. I mean, it's -- and we constantly drive around here and it's $7 a gallon. And there's a lot of fatigue with the leadership here, the Democratic leadership, and sort of a sense that nothing has gotten fixed. And so, there's a lot of people that are just really struggling to get behind a candidate. And most of the voters that I talk to, Erica, are just completely checked out or were before this scandal. And they see it as, you know, yet another failure of Washington leadership when they look at Eric Swalwell's conduct and potentially the cover-up and the fact that that didn't come to light sooner.

HILL: It will be fascinating to see what that translates to in the polls, both in terms of turnout and where those votes go.

Maeve, great to see you this morning. Thank you.

RESTON: You too. Thank you.

HILL: So, President Trump is doubling or is it tripling at this point, I've lost count, on himself with his Jesus memes on social media, posting yet another image, an A.I. image on Truth Social of him being, in this case, embraced by Jesus, where he writes, "I think it is quite nice."

A lot of people, however, do not agree. Finding the images of him, including this one as a Christ-like figure, which he said he thought depicted him as a doctor. Haven't seen a doctor like that. But, you know, maybe I go to the wrong doctors. It turns out a lot of people aren't buying what he's selling in terms of these posts.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I found it incredibly disrespectful, especially the A.I. image of him portraying himself as Jesus. I would ask why. Like, what is going on in your head that would make you, like, say these things or like do -- like, do any of this?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's like a lot of charged opinions about it, which a lot of people here have. And I think -- I kind of echo some of those, which is definitely that he shouldn't have done it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think that's kind of taking it too far. I think he's just maybe trying to be too powerful.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: The group chat is back.

Look, the administration's been trying to get a chat going of its own here when it comes to tax day, when it comes to things that are, you know, happening they'd like to highlight. The president is continuing to post these memes, which are not landing well across the board with Christians and non-Christians, frankly, who find them blasphemous, who find them offensive.

If you were still working in that White House, in the communications shop, how do you manage this moment? I mean the president's going to do whatever he wants to do.

DUBKE: He's going to do whatever he's going to do. I mean, look, that's Jesus whispering in his ear. I think that's a good thing, right?

HILL: I don't know. It depends what Jesus is telling him.

DUBKE: Yes. And I mean -- and the other --

HILL: If Jesus is telling him, keep posting the memes, I would say, I don't know, maybe we want to rethink it.

[06:55:01]

DUBKE: The other one, it's a white doctor's jacket with a red sweater over his shoulders.

HAYS: Oh, God.

DUBKE: No?

HILL: Yes. Sure.

DUBKE: This is what I try to sell.

(CROSS TALK)

DUBKE: Look, the president is going to do what the president's going to do and he's going to double down. I mean every -- we should not be surprised by the fact that he's been accused of something and he addresses that by saying, here's some more.

HILL: Yes.

DUBKE: So, the White House has to deal with it while they're also dealing with Iran, while they're also dealing with gas prices, while they're also dealing with record prices.

HILL: Right. But the fact that he's alienating such a key part of his base.

DUBKE: That is a -- that is --

HILL: That's a major concern.

DUBKE: That is a -- that is a concern for others, really, in the Republican Party.

HILL: Not for the president, no. I mean --

DUBKE: No, no, absolutely. But that's the thing here. I mean, the president is going to do what the president's going to do. Others are going to be worried about it.

HILL: Yes.

DUBKE: Why pick a fight with the Catholic Church? Probably not a good move. But it is what it is. And, you know, this is part of the reason people like Donald Trump, because he stirs things up. Sometimes it's for good. Sometimes that's not for good.

HAYS: I just think these are a massive distraction from what their actual failures are, which is --it's affordability, this war in Iran. So, it's like, these are just distractions, tactics that he's using.

You know, they can't get back onto a positive message, but they don't also have a positive message to sell.

DUBKE: Yes.

HAYS: So, it doesn't really matter. So, we're all sitting here talking about these Jesus memes when we're not talking about Iran or affordability, and we're just getting distracted here. DUBKE: Who's commenting on these? Democrats. I mean, they're also

being drug into this conversation. So, to a certain extent some of the --

HAYS: A hundred percent. So, they shouldn't take the bait.

DUBKE: Yes, but they are.

HAYS: They shouldn't take -- they shouldn't take the bait.

DUBKE: But they are.

HAYS: But it also is a huge -- he is a -- this is a huge distraction from his failures and his economic policies that are massive failures for the American people. And so, if we keep giving them oxygen, we are just drawing away from the fact that he is failing the economy and the American people.

HILL: How much are the American people talking about this? I mean we're seeing it, right? We're in a bubble sitting in this city. We are in a bit of a bubble. We all, whatever the algorithms may be, we're all getting fed different memes, right, because we're talking about this. Some of them are quite funny. I will recommend the cat meme if anybody hasn't seen it.

But realistically, what does this mean? We heard from some people, right, in some of those sound bites. How much do you think this could sit with people?

RODRIGUEZ: I mean I -- we do see these moments go viral online, but it becomes just part of the broader narrative about President Trump. I mean, people, since his first presidency, didn't like his social media presence and would criticize things he would post and felt very frustrated.

I think what is telling here, though, and I -- and I totally take your point here, but is -- these are showing friction points within the MAGA coalition.

HILL: Yes.

RODRIGUEZ: I mean we see it more and more and we -- we've talked about the friction points with the Iran war and how there's a division in the party within there, there's a division within MAGA on that. I mean it was, a few weeks ago, at CPAC and saw that live in conversations with people there. So, there are some frustrations that the president's just not focused on the right things and that people want to hear him talking more about how he's going to make their lives better. I mean that was a central question in 2024 that was very effective in talking to voters. He would say, is your life better now than it was four years ago?

HILL: Right.

RODRIGUEZ: And I think people are asking themselves that now as well. HILL: Which also goes back to the affordability question that we were

having just -- right, just before the break, which is what -- the other thing that was very effective in 2024 was, this was about how people felt. So, no matter how much former President Biden and the campaign wanted to say, hey, look, all these things are better, if you don't feel it, it doesn't matter. And President Trump finds himself in that situation now.

RODRIGUEZ: Absolutely. I think this is -- that this is just part of the like broader cultural conversation where people don't like his social media presence. But at the end of the day, what are the policies at the end of the day? What exactly are we seeing and feeling every day outside of the meme culture?

HILL: So, the memes may be in our group chats, but that's not the only thing in our group chats. It's what we call a little segue there.

You are up first. I'm throwing you the group chat first.

DUBKE: I'm up first?

HILL: Yes.

DUBKE: How am I up first?

HAYS: Let's do it.

DUBKE: You mean my Venmo?

HILL: Yes. So, we were having a great discussion in the break about Venmo, and we thought this was the perfect group chat because it's actually the group chat that we're having on set this morning.

DUBKE: It turns out I have too much money in my Venmo. And my wife discovered I had too much money in my Venmo. So, she took some of the money out of my Venmo, with -- which I asked her to do, but the -- when she put with love on it, I thought maybe that's not what you wanted to have be public. And then we started talking about who actually makes their transactions on Venmo public. Like, what desperate need do you have to let people know how much you paid for pizza or beer?

HILL: It is fascinating to me. I was also saying to all of you, I had seen something probably on social media yesterday, I don't remember where it was, but talking about -- an attorney talking about how this is ripe for discovery, right? So, if you have kids in college who are, you know, $20 with a beer emoji, remember that. The public versus private of the world that we live in is a fascinating social study.

RODRIGUEZ: I mean this is just a next level escalation of that. Like, I think of like my abuela always telling me, like, why do people need to broadcast what they're doing online? Like, why do people, like, I don't care where you're going. I don't care where you went on vacation. Like, that's your business. And I feel like this is just the next level of that. Like, why do I need to know that you paid for your rent? HAYS: Yes.

RODRIGUEZ: We were joking about this earlier. Why do I need to know that you paid for a beer?

HILL: Yes.

RODRIGUEZ: Like --

[07:00:02]

HILL: Is there a chance it comes back?

DUBKE: Didn't --

HILL: Can we go back to private mode?

DUBKE: Well, didn't Facebook, though, didn't Facebook have the thumbs down? Can we bring a thumbs down? So, no, seriously, to this end, let your grandmother then give a thumbs down to these things and maybe people will stop posting.

HAYS: But I -- but everybody likes everyone to know what they do. It's a status symbol, and people want to like live up to that. So, it's just this -- like why we have reality TV.

DUBKE: Oh.

HAYS: This is why I'm a fan of Bravo. I'll always bring it back to Bravo.

HILL: All we're going to tie that up with a bow right there.

Thanks, everybody, for waking up with us this morning. The headlines are next.