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Republicans Face Tough Races as Polls Show Competitive Races in Unexpected Places; Book Sheds Light on Biden's Diplomacy with Israel after October 7th. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired October 07, 2026 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:00:08]

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR: Here's what we're talking about today. The midterm Senate map, it's shifting towards Democrats. So, what does that mean for Republicans who are trying to keep control of government?

Plus, Troy Jackson, for example, holds Susan Collins to account on Trump, abortion, tariffs. This is all during a debate. Did it land with voters in Maine?

Also, the post-midterm meeting where Democrats will plot the 2028 race. Who's in? Who could be left out?

And three years after the October 7th attacks, we've got new details from behind the scenes as President Biden tried to prevent an all-out regional war with Iran, which is where we are now.

Good morning, everybody. I'm Audie Cornish, and we begin here. Do Democrats actually have a chance to flip the Senate? They need four seats to do that. And it's looking more likely.

We're going to talk about how the Senate maps are shifting four weeks out from election day.

So, for example, Cook Political Report, they're saying that Kansas is now a toss-up. And then states that were just listed as leaning Democrat -- North Carolina, now likely Democrat. And New Hampshire was once called a toss-up. Now they're saying it leans towards a Democratic win.

So, when looking at the full map, those four seats that they need actually look achievable. Republicans, however, aren't sweating it yet.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. BUDDY CARTER (R-GA): Look, we've got a record to run on. We changed America after the Biden-Harris administration. And we -- we did our job.

We secured the border. We made sure Americans are safer. We made sure we got a robust economy. All of those things are things we need to be running on.

I feel very confident we can retain the House and actually gain seats in the House and in the Senate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Today in the group chat, we've got Julia Manchester, White House correspondent at "The Hill"; Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project; and Antjuan Seawright, Democratic strategist.

So, welcome, everybody. Thanks for being here.

I want to start with, I think, a conventional wisdom, conventional kind of take, and this one is from Bill Maher. He was on with Fareed Zakaria. This was Sunday on that show. Let me play it for you guys.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL MAHER, HOST, HBO'S "REAL TIME WITH BILL MAHER": It's going to be a classic, historical ass-whooping.

He went too far. He didn't -- he didn't keep his word on the things that were important to us, ranging from Epstein, to no wars, to the economy is going to be better. Inflation, gas prices, all that stuff.

And this is what we need to register our feelings on in 2026. We'll get to the other stuff later, perhaps, but right now we have one message. Donald Trump went too far, and his party will pay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: I can't sum it up better than that kind of idea.

JULIA MANCHESTER, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, "THE HILL": Well, there's no question that in public polling that we've seen and private polling, there is a pushback against the Trump administration's policies, particularly on the economy. You're also seeing it on immigration, the war in Iran, et cetera.

But I think a lot of problems that Republicans have go back to some of the political choices Donald Trump made when it came to the campaign, in terms of candidate quality.

So, for example, in Texas, a lot of Republicans say the endorsement of someone like Ken Paxton is forcing Republicans to look at that state as more competitive, pour more resources into Texas. And now, they're getting stretched across the board in other states like Kansas, even Nebraska.

CORNISH: All right. So, to -- can I have you --

TERRY SCHILLING, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN PRINCIPLES PROJECT: Please.

CORNISH: -- address this as well? Because what does it say on the front of this paper? SCHILLING: No, I was going to -- I was going to hold this up. So,

look, this is actually a big problem.

CORNISH: "Young Voters Swing Away from Trump." And we are seeing that, as well. They, and of course, Latinos, young Latino men in particular, had drifted towards Republicans in 2024. And we are in a different place now.

SCHILLING: No, we are. Median age for first-time home buyers, 40 years old. It used to be in the low 20s.

There's something systemically wrong with our economy. And I think the Republicans have failed to address that, period.

But what we're really needing to pay attention to as a Republican, look, these midterms are always a pushback against the president's power. Out of the last 90 or 100 years, it's only happened two times where the party is -- in the presidency has kept power.

CORNISH: Yes.

SCHILLING: However --

CORNISH: So, I'm just going to show you some of the past presidents and where they were with job approval and midterm results.

[06:05:02]

SCHILLING: Yes. And Trump is obviously lower on that. And I think it's because of how the economy is performing for young people, for working families.

And to go back to Paxton, I just want to say the candidate quality. Paxton would not be the nominee if the Senate had just held a vote on the SAVE Act. In fact, he pledged to get out of the race and allow Cornyn to take the coronation.

But the Senate has refused to deliver on several key promises that Trump made in -- in the election to the voters. And I think had they delivered on those promises, we'd be in a much different position.

CORNISH: So, promises not kept is your take. What about you?

ANTJUAN SEAWRIGHT, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Donald Trump failed to deliver on the promises Donald Trump made to the Republican -- made to America during the course of the campaign.

Look, Tyson said two things that I believe, and I believe boxing and politics go hand in hand. He said everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

I think Republicans thought the American people were going to do -- ignore their everyday reality, and they were just going to do all these things except what they promised on the campaign trail.

The other thing Tyson said was peak at the right time. You're seeing Democrats peak at the right time. That's why the tectonic plates have shifted in places that Republicans, or even most of us in the Democratic Party, did not think would be in the conversation.

The reality is, you have record foreclosures, record credit card debt. You have record number of repossessions. You have the largest cut to Medicaid and SNAP benefits in American history.

SCHILLING: And this is --

SEAWRIGHT: You also -- you also have the consumer confidence of everyday Americans at the lowest it's been before.

SCHILLING: Can you tell me one Democrat that's crossed party lines to help President Trump? Can you tell me --

SEAWRIGHT: Yes.

SCHILLING: -- one Democrat that's actually been part of --

SEAWRIGHT: If you -- so, let me -- let me cut you --

SCHILLING: Democrats used to love deals (ph).

SEAWRIGHT: Let me ask you a question. Let me cut you right there.

SCHILLING: Please, please.

SEAWRIGHT: How do you think we have the bipartisan housing legislation that the president refused to sign into law? Now, tell me, when Republicans.

SCHILLING: He did sign it into law.

SEAWRIGHT: He did not. He did not put his signature on it.

SCHILLING: It went into law.

SEAWRIGHT: But he didn't put his signature on it.

SCHILLING: OK.

SEAWRIGHT: Let me also remind you that Republicans refused to work across the aisle to work with Democrats to lower the cost of health insurance by expanding those ACA tax credits.

CORNISH: Can I add one thing? We are not clear whether that means they will turn to Democrats. And I think this is why you see someone like Barack Obama showing up in Michigan, because it is not -- it is what Kamala Harris said.

It's not between voting these people or that people. It's between voting and the couch.

It's not clear to me that the young voters or any of these outside coalition voters show up outside of a general.

MANCHESTER: Right. And that's, I think, what you're hearing. You know, that's part of the Republican strategy, too.

You know, you've heard President Trump and the RNC say over and over again, they want to try to replicate the 2024 turnout. That's already a tall order for either party in a midterm election.

CORNISH: Yes, exactly.

MANCHESTER: Midterm elections are just difficult.

The problem, though, for Republicans is that replicating that turnout involves getting some members of the Trump 2024 coalition, whether it's Hispanics, Latinos or some of these younger voters. And polling just shows they're not -- they're not on board.

CORNISH: They're not jazzed. Yes, yes.

MANCHESTER: But you make -- yes, but you make it good (ph).

CORNISH: Then let's talk more, because there are a bunch of debates that happened, and we'll bring you up to speed on that, in case you're just checking in.

So, another state that Republicans should have had in the bag, ruby- red South Carolina. But now they've got to put extra money into the state. So, did the president overestimate the Graham name in that state?

Plus, Democrats' No. 1 target is Susan Collins of Maine. We're going to talk about how newbie Troy Jackson did against her on last night's debate stage.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:12:57]

CORNISH: All right. So, if Democrats hope to flip the Senate in November, knocking off, say, Susan Collins in Maine would be critical.

The five-term Republican senator squared off last night against Democrat Troy Jackson. This was the first of four debates this month. Now, Collins' goal, basically, is to distance herself from Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Trump this week said that he might actually visit Maine. Will you stand with him if he does?

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): I don't think that President Trump is going to come to Maine. I'm not exactly his favorite senator.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So, yes or no? Do you have a yes or no to that?

COLLINS: I would say that he is not coming to Maine.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK. Fair enough.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Jackson's strategy is to tie Collins to her record.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TROY JACKSON (D), MAINE SENATE CANDIDATE: Eight years ago today, Maine women went to D.C. and begged Senator Collins not to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. But she did it anyways, even though they begged her.

He helped overturn Roe versus Wade. And today, she says she has no regrets.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: So, the race couldn't be tighter. Collins and Jackson both picking up 50 percent of the vote in the latest CBS poll of likely Maine voters. Definition of a toss-up.

Group chat is back. Can I start with you, Antjuan? Because obviously, this is not the -- the candidate that Democrats thought they were going to have.

And then after the implosion of Graham Platner, you have Troy Jackson sitting on stage, but he still picked up on some pretty specific issues like abortion.

SEAWRIGHT: Well, I think abortion is part of the conversation, but I also think it's the fact that while Susan Collins wants to put distance between herself and Donald Trump.

She's chair of a key committee called Appropriations that has largely been responsible for carrying out the agenda of Donald Trump when it comes to funding, like giving ICE a $70 billion slush fund, like some of the things that actually go against what the American people see as a concern.

CORNISH: He had a line that I feel like you would say. I wrote it. I was like, Antjuan would like this. Do you want to hear it?

This is him talking about how, you know. She says, look, I don't always vote with Trump. And he says this in response.

[06:15:05]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACKSON: Well, Senator Collins is like an arsonist who helped set the fire. And then she wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SEAWRIGHT: I've actually said that on this program before.

CORNISH: No, you didn't.

SEAWRIGHT: I have.

CORNISH: We've got to roll back the tape. We'll come back to that.

SEAWRIGHT: But here's the reality about Susan Collins. The fact that this race is a 50/50 jump ball, and she's an institution senator in a place like Maine should give everyone concerned. Why?

Because I think every voter in that state would agree that their material wellbeing and their quality of life has not gotten better. And she's a powerful committee chairwoman in the in Washington, D.C.

CORNISH: One of the things that's interesting is, in the end, after all, the Sturm und Drang about redistricting in the House, the Senate races are states that specifically feel the burn from Trump's specific policies.

So, if you're in Maine, Canadian tariffs mean something to you.

There was also a death in -- an ICE death in Maine.

But it has the added thing of her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. And she was asked if she felt that Kavanaugh lied about the potential to overturn Roe v. Wade during his hearing. And here is how she responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: I do not feel that he lied, but I think that he should not have said it was settled law because to me, that meant that it would not be overturned.

But to be fair, you cannot ask a nominee how he might vote on some hypothetical future case.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: You've worked on campaigns.

SCHILLING: Yes.

CORNISH: When you're explaining, are you winning?

SCHILLING: No. But if I were her, I would have pointed out that there are actually more abortions today than prior to overturning Roe v. Wade. And that's a fact. You guys can --

CORNISH: Specifically, because of medical based --

SCHILLING: Because the blue states -- because the blue states passing their blue shield laws. Now you have California mailing abortion drugs into -- into red states.

SEAWRIGHT: What about Maine? What about Maine? Because we're talking about state specific. What -- what has changed?

SCHILLING: Laws have liberalized in Maine. They've liberalized in every blue state across the country.

CORNISH: No, I take your point.

SCHILLING: Abortion rights are not under --

CORNISH: Telemedicine is a real thing. But that's not what she said.

SCHILLING: Well, look --

CORNISH: What she said is, well, he told me, and I'm not. I'm like, is this woman close to Trump or not? I don't know. And are voters going to punish her?

SCHILLING: This is -- the Maine Senate race is always chalked up, because it is a blue state, to be a swing state.

CORNISH: Not that blue. I'm from New England. OK?

SCHILLING: It's mostly blue.

CORNISH: It's a different vibe in Maine.

SCHILLING: It's a swing state for New England, but that's not saying very much.

CORNISH: She's a five-term senator.

SCHILLING: And she -- and there's -- and she's always chalked up to being having lose -- lose -- she's always thought to be losing the race, and she always pulls it off.

She's an institution. She's not a Trump puppet. She has independence from him. Maine voters know her very well.

SEAWRIGHT: But you can't trust her.

SCHILLING: Here's the thing. Troy Jackson is literally doing commercials, drinking boba tea and bringing himself as a logger while having married his second cousin. Like, that's -- you guys are better off with Graham Platner.

SEAWRIGHT: Here's where -- here's where you -- here's where she can't put distance with Donald Trump. There are hundreds of thousands of people in Maine that are going to be crushed by the Medicaid cuts and the SNAP benefit cuts.

SCHILLING: Not true.

SEAWRIGHT: There are going to be hundreds of thousands of people.

SCHILLING: The Medicaid cuts were for fraud. They were for illegal immigrants.

SEAWRIGHT: There are going to be hundreds of thousands of people, people in Maine going to be impacted by those ACA cuts and the gas prices. SCHILLING: ACA cuts. Why do we have to fund ACA anymore? Because it

was unsustainable.

SEAWRIGHT: Gas prices. Gas prices and everything else. They have drived [SIC] up the highest cost of living.

SCHILLING: I agree with gas prices.

SEAWRIGHT: That is why people are going to vote against Susan Collins.

SCHILLING: But Antjuan, we've talked about this before. The gas prices are high as an aberration because of the Iran War. Democrats' goal --

SEAWRIGHT: Yes. His fault.

SCHILLING: But Democrats' goal is to increase gas prices to seven, eight, nine, $10 a gallon.

CORNISH: Well, let me --

SEAWRIGHT: Where is the -- where is that outlined (ph)?

SCHILLING: The climate agenda. You don't want --

CORNISH: This is what people are hearing on the debate stage. Let me turn to Julia for a second, because I think this is a good example of what we're talking about.

Maine has a much older population.

MANCHESTER: It does.

CORNISH: It has one of the oldest populations in the country. So, Medicare cuts mean something to them.

MANCHESTER: Yes.

CORNISH: It's a semi kind of rural state.

MANCHESTER: Right.

CORNISH: Driving diesel means something to them.

And we mentioned already the Canadian economy and transfer that goes back and forth at the border.

So, each one of these policies means something. The question is do voters think it's a short-term pain?

MANCHESTER: Yes, absolutely. And I think you see, I think, Trump signaling that it is an issue by this call for him, or this vow to give $90 for Medicare premiums to seniors. I mean, that to me, signals there's an issue there.

But with the Trump factor in Maine, it is fascinating for someone like Susan Collins because, yes, she is a -- she does have an independent streak in her. No question.

But Trump continues to maybe somehow, you know, insert himself into the race. He's a problem for her that isn't going away. You know, she said last night Trump is not coming to Maine.

Trump said the day before, Well, I might go to Maine.

Susan Collins was in the Oval Office last February with Trump. There's a picture of him handing her a red hat. I mean, I think he's giving Democrats a lot of material to work with. The question is, can she overcome that?

CORNISH: OK, so after the break, were going to talk more about how Democrats are trying to expand the map, because Antjuan and Terry have more thoughts. So, we're going to get their thoughts on Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska.

[06:20:06]

We're going to talk about the way blue-collar and rural voters could be the key to success there.

And then I want to turn to this. It's been three years since the October 7th attacks in Israel, and now we have a behind the scenes account about the race to get hostages home.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:29:38]

CORNISH: So, today actually marks three years since the October 7th attacks by Hamas against Israel. More than 1,200 people were killed, another 251 taken hostage.

And we are now getting an inside account of how the Biden White House handled the conflict in the moment and the talks to bring the hostages home.

This is in a new book. We're learning that Biden was the driving force behind traveling to Israel just 11 days after the attack to show solidarity.

We now know that visit came just days after Biden convinced Israel's prime minister not to launch an assault against Hezbollah terrorists in Southern Lebanon, preventing an all-out regional war, one he also had hoped to prevent in Iran.

Now, Biden said to our next guest at the time, quote, "Help me keep this damn thing in the box."

Joining me to discuss is Brett McGurk, CNN global affairs analyst, former White House Biden coordinator for the Middle East.

And his new book is called "Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages." The book is very well written. I really appreciate you coming in. It

does a couple of things that I didn't fully understand until I saw it in writing, which is ahead of October 7th. There had been a very kind of fast-moving attempt to normalize relationships between Israel and its regional partners, people who are now all mired in war.

BRETT GURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Yes, Audie, it's great to be here on such a solemn day.

And on October 6th, just yesterday, three years ago, I had the Saudis in my office at the White House, because we were kind of putting the final pieces on a very complex deal. We'd been negotiating for about a year.

And what was interesting about it -- and I tell the story in the book -- is how the Palestinian Authority was kind of working with us on this process and was a key component of the process.

In fact, a Saudi official. Most people don't realize this had had not visited Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority, in 55 years. They did visit just about a month before the October 7th attacks.

And I shook hands with Princess Reema, the Saudi ambassador, to say, let's try to get this done by the end of the year. We're working on that goal and roll it out early next year.

Tony Blinken was about to go to the region. And then it was about at midnight, our time that night, we started to get news of October 7th. And three years ago right now, I was already in the White House as the horrific events of October 7th took hold.

CORNISH: That's why I wanted to come to this point, because then it's really coming as a surprise, right? Everything you're working towards is towards cooperation.

And then this quite literally tears into the fabric of Israeli society and also the sort of politics of the region. What were the initial reactions from Biden in the White House?

MCGURK: Well, first, Audie, it's trying to figure out what was happening. And it came -- I described it as coming together in jagged pieces.

You're seeing what's in the social media. You're seeing open sources. You're seeing a lot of intelligence information. Very unclear. But what's clear by late morning, completely unprecedented event.

Started with rockets. We got news of rockets. And then the incursions, which we now know over a dozen points in the border about thousands of Hamas, very well-organized assault.

And when I finally saw -- I walked in the Oval Office about late morning, and I -- President Biden, he looked very pale. It was like the last thing he wanted.

I didn't know at the time. When you work with the president, you don't know everything going on. He was about to sit down, preparing for Rob Hur, the prosecutor, with the issue of the documents in his garage. Remember all that?

CORNISH: Yes.

MCGURK: So, he was dealing with all that. And -- but he's, you know, already gotten on the phone with Netanyahu. And Netanyahu says one thing to him on that day.

He says, "Joe, in the Middle East, if you're weak, you're roadkill. And they think we're weak."

And what he meant was not only the horrific events going on from Hamas, but Hezbollah. You got 30,000 troops in the North in Iran. And this very real concern that this was not a one-off attack. It was kind of the first of another shoe is about to drop. And that's what we're then dealing with in that -- in that first week. Because we didn't know.

CORNISH: So, that's not the only phone call, right? Given what's happening.

And the one that's getting the most attention is what you wrote about a call that happened between Biden and Netanyahu in April of 2024.

And to give people a reminder, this was the day after an Israeli strike had actually killed seven aid workers in Gaza. And so, you wrote that Biden actually threatened to withhold military aid. And using this quote, "Bibi, man, what the 'F' are you doing? You think I'm Santa Claus? No Santa Claus in Israel, pal."

And you also write that Netanyahu appeared to actually come away from the call feeling like maybe aid to Israel was going to be yanked.

MCGURK: Yes.

CORNISH: And that's not what happened.

MCGURK: Well, that's one of many calls in the book. And that's -- that's how these calls often went down.

That was a moment we had that horrific, tragic strike against the aid workers. The hostage talks had collapsed for reasons I go through in the book. We're also preparing for Iran's about to launch this massive missile attack, almost an unprecedented event, Audie.

CORNISH: Say that again. Iran is preparing an attack.

MCGURK: Yes.

CORNISH: Because I think we think of these things separately.

MCGURK: We're seeing the information --

CORNISH: Yes, October 7th and then Trump's war. But you're saying there was movement. MCGURK: Yes. So, just to kind of put it in context, on October 8th,

Hezbollah starts firing rockets into -- into Northern Israel every day, 80,000 people displaced.

On April 1st, same day as that aid worker strike, the Israelis target a Iranian commander, a Revolutionary Guards commander who was coordinating the -- the Hezbollah attacks -

[06:30:00]