Return to Transcripts main page
Connect the World
Turkey Launches Military Offensive in Northern Syria; Interview with Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA) on Trump's Decision to Pull Out Troops from Syria; SDF Reports Civilian Casualties from Turkish Strikes. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired October 09, 2019 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
(MUSIC PLAYING)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): This hour, a major military escalation right here in the Middle East.
Plus, a flat-out refusal from the American president. We'll tell you on what just ahead.
I want to begin with what is breaking news this hour and the Turkish offensive into northeastern Syria is underway. These are live pictures
from Kurdistan 24 TV from the Turkish-Syrian border.
You can see thick black smoke, cars loaded with people. We've been watching these images now for some time, as people in that area, clearly
trying to make their way out of harm's way, as the Turkish military begins this incursion.
It started two hours ago with an announcement from Turkey's president. Within minutes, warplanes from inside Turkey took off to strike their first
Kurdish targets in northeastern Syria.
Syrian Democratic Forces, comprised mostly of Kurdish fighters, quickly reporting airstrikes on civilian areas, sparking huge panic. They now say
they're getting reports of civilian casualties from villages in the area.
The Turkish president says the operation is meant to drive out terrorists. But it involves targeting Kurdish forces that played a big role in helping
the United States defeat ISIS. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh is along the border. Arwa Damon is in Istanbul. And CNN's military and diplomatic analyst John
Kirby is in Washington.
Nick, let me start with you.
What are you hearing on the ground where you are?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We've gone to a higher position overlooking the town, one of the towns which appears to be
in the cross hairs of this Turkish military intervention. And as darkness is falling, we're seeing --
(AUDIO GAP)
WALSH: -- the occasional impact.
And what comes next?
Are we seeing areas of terrain around where (INAUDIBLE) after the phone call between Donald Trump and Erdogan late on Sunday night.
Is it in the sights of the Turkish military tonight?
(INAUDIBLE) wait for nightfall and then go in. Many locals here are wondering what it means to now see impacts of artillery. Remember, they've
seen ISIS move in and be cleared out by the Syrian Kurds over the past four or five years or so. No stranger to the sounds and signs of conflict here.
But concerned about how extensive this will be. Earlier on, the tempo was changing. We saw lots of military driving along the motorway, up along the
border and actually down that border itself. I saw three SUVs turn up, one of which was -- it was a child walking past. One SUV smeared in mud as an
act of camouflage.
Someone leaned out of an SUV and waved a Free Syrian Army flag, the flag of the Syrian rebellion, part is what is still funded by the Turkish military
and may be used in intervention here.
What comes next is unclear. Turkish state TV are amassed in large numbers on this hill. They look to be playing pictures of Turkish jets taking off.
It's unclear. I've not seen any airstrikes at this point. There's been around 50 or so shells we've seen or heard be fired at the very most.
[11:05:00]
WALSH: They seem to have landed in the open expanses around here and not in populated areas as far as we've seen so far. A great unknown here. And
that is exactly as far as Turkey wants to go. It's suggested possibly 18 miles. That's an ambitious target for a border that spans 600 miles.
Are they the initial strike points?
Do they move on slowly afterwards?
What does this mean for Turkey's relationship with the United States?
It seems it was all sparked by a conversation between President Trump and President Erdogan where Turkey felt they had close to a green light.
Suddenly the White House sounded friendly to the Kurds and also friendly to Turkey, threatening economic obliteration if there was any unforced or bad
what he agreed with President Erdogan.
At the same time, hard to define U.S. policy at the moment. Now settling in on a very uncertain part of the Turkish border.
ANDERSON: On the Turkish side of the border, Nick Paton Walsh, posing many questions there that need answers. One assumes that some of the answers
will come to light in the hours and days to come.
Let me get you inside northeastern Syria where Clarissa Ward is standing by, by phone.
As we speak to you, we're looking at images from Kurdistan TV, Kurdistan 24 TV. These are images of a lot of smoke and a lot of movement by many
people on the road to -- clearly trying to escape from harm's way.
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Essentially we're right in the thick of what you're seeing. We're trying to leave the town,
which has been steadily bombarded by Turkish artillery for the last couple hours.
It's a very chaotic scene on the roads. Hundreds and hundreds of cars choked full of families, people desperately trying to get out. We've seen
many women, children, fearful for what the future will bring, fearful, frankly, for where they'll even spend the night.
They've been sitting already in this traffic for a long time. They have no destination in sight. Some of them even are on foot. I saw an elderly
woman, who obviously had difficulty walking; a younger man came and actually hoisted her above his shoulders to try to carry her to safety.
Such is the level of fear and confusion as this Turkish military operation gets underway. We saw at least six thick plumes of black smoke, apparently
from Turkish strikes. We saw one building or area that appeared to be on fire, presumably as a result of those strikes.
It's not clear exactly what the target has been specifically. One can imagine or assume that they're YPG or Syrian Kurdish paramilitary forces
that are being targeted. As is always the case with these situations, the minute artillery starts flying, the minute confusion is rife, that's when
you have the potential for civilian casualties as well.
Certainly this is shaping up to be a civilian catastrophe with many, many people, we can only assume thousands of people, forced from their homes,
desperately trying to work out where on Earth they'll spend the night and what tomorrow will bring, Becky.
ANDERSON: The Turkish president has been warning for months, Clarissa, that this military offensive was in the works. He spoke about it at the
U.N. General Assembly last month. Yet, clearly and understandably, many on the ground and around the world are shocked by the fact that this offensive
has actually begun.
Should they be shocked?
WARD: You know, what's interesting, even the Kurds themselves here seem shocked because, back in January, President Trump said he was going to pull
all U.S. troops out of Syria.
And then he walked that back under a lot of both internal domestic political pressure but also international pressure. I think there was a
lot of confusion. People here almost expected maybe President Trump was going to do something to intervene on their behalf.
[11:10:00]
WARD: Particularly after he had written that tweet saying that Turkey would be decimated economically if there was unnecessary or unforced
fighting. So I think there's a real sense, bizarrely, despite all the warnings, that Turkey has quite clearly been declaring, that this has
actually come to this. This is actually happening.
There's a very palpable fear here that, you know, this goes beyond even a dispute between the Turks and the Kurds. This is a complex latticework of
different sects, different allegiances and alliances that have been formed.
All of that potentially stands to be disrupted by this military operation. The fear is that with that chaos, with that power vacuum, more violence and
more suffering will be the result, Becky.
ANDERSON: And the potential resurgence, of course, of ISIS, its sleeper cells and breakouts from prisons, where ISIS fighters have been retained,
as it were, by SDF forces.
Clarissa, Turkey's communications director wrote an op-ed in "The Washington Post" today, saying, and I quote, "Like the United States,
Turkey does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. When monsters attempt to knock down our doors and harm our citizens, we have to respond.
"Sending young men and women into battle is never an easy decision."
He continued to write, "Sending young men and women is not an easy decision but it's the situation we're in today."
That an op-ed by Turkey in "The Washington Post" today.
You're speaking to people on the ground. I know that we've spoken to members of the SDF, who, quite frankly, feel completely let down by the
U.S.
Just how concerned are they about the possibility of a massacre of Turkish fighters at present, a potential humanitarian disaster -- but go on.
WARD: Now I think it's very, very deep concern. People here are troubled because they expect this from the Turks. The Turkish-Kurdish enmity goes
back a long time. That's nothing new.
And even though there were warning signs clearly from when President Trump came to office, that he wanted to extricate himself from Syria, I think
there was still this belief, perhaps somewhat naively, that, given that so many thousands of Kurds had given their lives in the fight against ISIS,
that there would be some measure of quid quo pro or tit-for-tat and the U.S. would have their back.
Now that it's abundantly clear that that is not the case, the Kurds are naturally looking towards Russia and to the regime of Assad for some
measure of protection. That's, as I explained before, only serves again to shift or upset the delicate balance that exists here currently in Syria,
which is clearly not a sustainable balance in the long run.
But by upsetting the apple cart in this way and redrawing the boundaries and reforming different alliances, there is absolutely the potential for a
bloodbath along the way. Nobody wants to see that happen on any side. But in this chaotic moment, it's hard to see who exactly will ensure that that
kind of crisis is averted, Becky.
ANDERSON: Extraordinary. I know the sun is going down, there is a lot of smoke around. But the images that we're looking at in the area that you're
in look pretty apocalyptic at this point.
The United Nations' humanitarian coordinator spoke to me about the dangers of this Turkish offensive. I want our viewers to hear what he said. He
spoke about how this could be the opportunity for ISIS sleeper cells.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PANOS MOUMTZIS, UNOCHA: We're concerned. We're concerned about the safety and security first and foremost of our own staff, the humanitarian actors.
We have hundreds of staff in this area.
Of course, very concerned about the people and the broader stability in the area. It is very likely that there are supercells who are waiting for the
opportunity to be able to emerge. So maintaining law and order and security is critical for the safety and for the security.
And this is not just about the northeastern part of Syria.
[11:15:00]
MOUMTZIS: This is a global issue.
ANDERSON: Turkey has said in an op-ed today they take responsibility for ensuring these ISIS sleeper cells do not reemerge. How they'll do that, of
course, is another very open question at this point.
How real do you think this concern is about the potential for an ISIS resurgence at this point?
WARD: Initially I was a little -- I won't say skeptical but I was thinking let's wait and see. Let's wait until we have concrete information. But I
can tell you what I'm seeing right now.
I'm seeing convoys of Kurdish fighters whizzing by, in some cases, in sort of flatbed trucks. They're obviously being deployed to either guard
positions or head to the frontlines or provide some resistance to the Turkish military operation.
And guess where those fighters are coming from?
Some of them will be coming from areas or prisons where they have been guarding or taking care of or holding the fort of ISIS prisons. That
really is the real concern.
Who is going to maintain law and order right now if the Syrian Democratic Forces, as they're called by the U.S., largely made up of Kurds, are
deployed fighting a war on their border with Turkey?
Who is going to be responsible for making sure that those thousands -- I mean, we're talking 12,000 ISIS prisoners and tens of thousands more family
members, many have been radicalized as well, that they still are inside their prisons and well-guarded and well-fortified?
The minute you have a power vacuum, a chaotic situation, where security forces are being ripped from their usual responsibilities and deployed to
the front line on the border, there's always a very real recipe for some kind of a disaster or for some opportunity in that chaos, in that space, in
that void, for sleeper cells or ISIS units to recoalesce and reconstitute.
I do think it's a significant fear. It may not be the most pressing thing right now on the Syrian people's agenda. I think the humanitarian
situation potentially is going to be a broader, more immediate concern. But going forward, there's no question.
How is Turkey going to fill the void and guard those prisons when the prisons don't fall in the buffer area that they're allegedly going to be
taking responsibility for?
There's still a lot of questions and many concerns that there's no real strong coherent answer, Becky.
ANDERSON: Clarissa Ward on the ground in northeastern Syrian. As we speak, these are the images, the aftermath of what is the beginning of this
military offensive by the Turkish army into northern Syria. We don't know how long this is going to go on, what sort of consequences there might be.
We're on the story for you. We continue on this breaking news. Stay with us. Taking a very short break.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:20:00]
(MUSIC PLAYING)
ANDERSON: Welcome back. You're watching breaking news here on CNN. I'm Becky Anderson.
This hour, smoke rising over Kurdish-held northeastern Syria. Turkish warplanes striking civilian areas. We're in the first few hours of what is
Turkey's long planned offensive. The Turkish president announced the military action by tweet earlier, claiming he's trying to clear the area of
terrorists and create safe zones to repatriate Syrian refugees.
Turkey's military action was effectively given the green light by the Trump administration's withdrawal of U.S. troops there, leaving behind their
allied Kurdish forces, who fought and died by the thousands in the fight against ISIS, a group that was incubated in this corridor, in the
northeastern side of Syria and into Iraq.
I just want to -- yes, let me bring in John Garamendi, a Democratic congressman who serves on the Armed Services Committee.
Sir, your assessment of Mr. Trump's decision on Syria and what you see unfolding now in the northeastern part of the country.
REP. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-CA) MEMBER, ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: It's shameful. President Trump's action is absolutely shameful. It's
destructive, it's inhumane and we're going to see a disaster in that area. Not only for the Kurds that have fought -- did the fighting for us against
the ISIS and total abandonment of them, that is shameful. But it's also going to be so destructive.
You can look forward to the Kurds trying to protect themselves, moving away from the camps where they have provided the control over those ISIS camps.
We're going to see a situation that is going to develop into a major conflagration and we're going to see ethnic cleansing. Clearly Erdogan
intends to move the Kurds away from that border and bring in Syrian Arabs. Ethnic cleansing pure and simple.
ANDERSON: Sir, it is not as if this hadn't been flagged by the Turkish president. He has being talking about this potential offensive for months
and months and months.
Should we -- I know we don't like what we're seeing on the ground -- but should we, given that there are likely to be civilian casualties, should we
be surprised by what we're seeing?
GARAMENDI: Well, we should always be surprised by what President Trump would do. He's totally unpredictable. He got rolled by Erdogan. Erdogan
simply rolled over him. We were in the process, our government and the Turkish government and the Syrian Kurds, were in the process of setting up
a zone of no conflict between the Syrian Kurds and the Turkish government.
That, obviously, was abandoned and the green light given to Turkey to roll into that area. We also keep in mind that Iraq, where there was a serious
ISIS, part of their caliphate, is also experiencing very serious disruptions, riots in the capital city.
And ISIS didn't disappear. It simply was defeated on the battlefield but not ideologically. We're going to be faced with a very disruptive
situation in which the governments in the area are not strong enough without American support to maintain stability.
And the reconstruction effort was never put in place, both in Iraq and in Syria. So we've got a very difficult situation here. Look forward to the
resurgence of ISIS, look forward to Turkey carrying on ethnic cleansing in the area. Look forward to perhaps years of disruption and chaos.
ANDERSON: President Erdogan frustrated that the U.S. promises didn't come good with regard to the buffer zone.
[11:25:00]
ANDERSON: He said President Trump ran out of time. Many on both sides in Washington, including yourself, criticizing Mr. Trump for abandoning these
Kurdish forces. Turkey arguing that the U.S. is a NATO ally.
NATO's secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has just tweeted saying, quote, "I count on Turkey to act with restraint and ensure that the gains we have
made in the fight against ISIS are not jeopardized," adding he'll speak with Mr. Erdogan this Friday.
You say you have significant concerns about an ISIS resurgence at this point, sir?
GARAMENDI: Well, absolutely. We know that there are 10,000 ISIS fighters in one of the prisons guarded by the Syrian Kurds. There are 70,000 family
members in another camp guarded by the Syrian Kurds.
Do you think for a moment the Kurds are not going to rush to the protection of their citizens and family members?
Absolutely they will. The bottom line is that the United States, led by President Trump, has not sustained its effort to secure the peace.
Yes, we did defeat ISIS on the battlefield but there's so much more that needed to be done and the president refused to provide the necessary
American support in that area, always hesitant to carry on to win the peace. That didn't happen.
Now with Turkey being given the green light to get into that area, we see exactly what's happening. You can take a look at the film right now.
The other part of the problem is, so what will the American relationship be with Turkey going forward?
We've had a very severe strain with Turkey because Turkey has acquired the Russian missile air defense system, the S-400 system, which is a major
problem for the United States and our NATO ally, who wants to acquire the very advanced F-35 jet. That's nut going to happen.
So we've got a very serious problem way beyond just this issue of the green light given to Turkey to invade and to take on the Syrian Kurds, our ally
in the fight against ISIS.
ANDERSON: It will be interesting to see what happens then mid-November as we understand the invitation has been extended to the Turkish president by
the U.S. president for a visit to Washington mid-November.
The U.S. president has said of this part of Syria, we should never have been there in the first place. He further tweeted, fighting between
various groups that's been going on for hundreds of years. We should never have been in the Middle East, moved our 50 soldiers out. Turkey must take
over captured ISIS fighters that Europe have refused to return. The stupid endless wars for us are ending.
And he will, sir, have support for that position, won't he, back home?
GARAMENDI: Well, he will. But let's be real. Let's take a look at what was actually going on five years ago when ISIS emerged out of nowhere and
occupied a good portion of Syria and was about to march on Baghdad.
And do we forget so quickly what ISIS was all about?
Do we forget the beheadings, the threat to Europe?
Do we forget the threat to America?
President Trump is totally dislocated from the facts of life. And the reality is terrible decisions have been made by the president. Actually,
on a whim. On a phone call.
What exactly did the president and Erdogan say that caused the president within moments to pull out?
To give Turkey a green light?
What was the deal?
What's going on here?
This president is disconnected from the reality of the world around him.
ANDERSON: Well, perhaps we can get a transcript of that call. I'm sure there's questions being asked about that.
One of Mr. Trump's biggest allies in Washington is Republican senator Lindsey Graham. He's just tweeted on this, quote, "This move ensures the
reemergence of ISIS." He's said this move, he says, "puts U.S. national security at risk."
Mr. Trump is facing impeachment at home.
Do you believe that this could be the move that tips Republicans over the edge?
Washington is so polarized, so divided, so split over this impeachment inquiry, what do you believe the response might be coming out of
Washington, briefly, sir?
GARAMENDI: Well, I've wondered for more than two years what it would take for the Republicans to understand it.
[11:30:00]
GARAMENDI: The incredible threat to America and to the sanity of the world that President Trump is. Finally, at least in part, Lindsey Graham
understands that and has said clearly that this is a factor in the impeachment issue.
Hopefully this will cause the Republicans to look at the world not through the eyes of their own political future but rather in the clear eye of what
Trump has done to our democracy in America, as well as to the stability of the world.
We can go on and spend the next hour talking about the terrible national security and world security issues that Trump has done. Day after day,
Trump has handed Putin a victory. And this is also one more victory for Russia, for Putin, because Russia's status in the area is enhanced.
America's is degraded. European Union and NATO is also degraded by all of this.
ANDERSON: With that, we're going to leave it there, sir. We thank you very much, indeed for joining us.
I'm Becky Anderson, stay with us, this is CNN. Our breaking news coverage on the Turkish-Syrian border and inside northeastern Syria continues after
this short break.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.
ANDERSON: Welcome back. It's 34 minutes past 7:00 in the UAE. This is CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson, from our Middle East
broadcasting hub. We're centered in the region where, on an extended basis, Turkey has, in the past few hours, launched its long planned
military offensive, striking civilian areas in Kurdish-held northeastern Syria.
[11:35:00]
ANDERSON: Turkish President Erdogan announced the military action by tweet. He says the operation is meant to drive out terrorists, including
the Syrian Democratic Forces.
They're a mostly Kurdish group, aligned with the U.S., who played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS, now left behind after Mr. Trump's
withdrawal of U.S. troops from the area just days ago.
Let's bring in Nick Paton Walsh, who is along the Turkish-Syrian border. He's joined from Washington by CNN military and diplomatic analyst John
Kirby and our CNN political commentator, Rob Astorino, who is a member of Mr. Trump's 2020 reelection advisory council.
Gentlemen, stand by. I want to get to the Turkish-Syrian border, where Nick is for us as we speak.
What are you hearing?
WALSH: I have to say it's gone a little quieter around here. That doesn't necessarily change what we'll see overnight. The actual ground offensive
may start during night hours and that's certainly upon us right now.
The initial shelling we heard, which was certain areas around the town, from which U.S. forces withdrew anticipating this Turkish move. Let me
give you a scene of how things are playing out amongst Turkish people in this area.
It wasn't clear initially what they were but we heard the impact of what was shelling landing on the Syrian side of the border. There was clapping
and a cheer amongst the some of Turkish people here.
So very much a moment I think that hasn't lacked any fanfare or pomp in terms of how Turkey is presenting a walk into Syria and Syrian Kurdish
territory. But it is a move that's an enormous gamble, frankly, for President Erdogan.
He has learned in the last few days this will incur the wrath of the Republicans who normally do anything to back Donald Trump up and it also
possibly is going to incur economic obliteration if, indeed Turkey crosses an invisible line Donald Trump seems to have in his head.
As you know, the biggest question, how extensive an operation can they pull off here, the Turkish military? The second largest in NATO. The capacity
is really in doubt.
These are areas for over which the Syrian Kurds have fought bitterly over the past year. They know the towns, they know the streets, they know the
rubble because it was created with the loss of their colleagues as well, fighting ISIS here. This comes as the Syrian Kurds -- they've known the
Americans were looking to get out of the Middle East, where Donald Trump refers to endless wars.
They thought it wouldn't come quite so fast or with such a green light from the Trump administration. Trump officials trying to reel that back in,
trying to suggest a green light and make it clear that there are American troops still in northern Syria but not in the crossfire of what we're
seeing unfolding before us here.
This is a long-term operation here. It's not something they want over in a matter of a hours. The shelling would lead me to believe we're looking to
days and possibly weeks in terms of the goals here. That calls into question exactly what the end state the Turkish government would like to
see in all of this -- Becky.
ANDERSON: Mr. Astorino, One of Mr. Trump's biggest allies in Washington, Republican senator Lindsey Graham, tweeted this. He said, "This move
ensures the reemergence of ISIS" which he calls, a "U.S. national security disaster."
What was the president thinking?
Do you have any idea what was discussed on that call with the Turkish president?
Why was Donald Trump decided to walk away from those who fought and died for the U.S. in the fight against ISIS?
ROB ASTORINO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You have a lot of people who are correct on this. Unfortunately there could be people hurt, like the Kurds.
Senator Graham and a lot of the Republican senators are correct that we need to be careful and not give Turkey carte blanche to destroy a region.
[11:40:00]
ASTORINO: But I think the president is correct in that he said in his campaign and he's been saying since he's been president. We've been there
for decades in the Middle East. We've had some effect.
But at what point does America come back home with its troops?
I think that's the big issue. I think most of the public in the United States would be on the side of the president, like, OK, we've spent a lot
of money, spilled a lot of blood and it's time for our troops to come home and let the Middle East take care of the Middle East or more of an
international operation.
This is a tricky one but right now with the insurgency and the military attack by Turkey, it makes it even more difficult for the president to
stand by his earlier conviction and he might have to take action now.
ANDERSON: Right. OK. So you're talking with regard you think people at home would be perfectly satisfied with this because you're speaking to his
base. And rightly so.
(CROSSTALK)
ASTORINO: No, more than --
ANDERSON: Hang on, sir. His campaign promise was to pull out of these endless wars. Look, I guess the point is this, he's facing impeachment at
home.
How concerned are you that this could be the move that tips Republicans over the edge in what is otherwise a very polarized and divisive
Washington?
ASTORINO: Separate issues. Completely separate issues. The impeachment is a political process where, you know, almost every Republican in the
Senate, in the House and America feels that the president is being railroaded. Having to endure two years of a phony Russian investigation.
Stormy Daniels nonsense.
It's been like this literally since the night he was elected. The Democrats were protesting, saying we're going to impeach him. They'll
figure out what and we've had this non-stop nonsense. This is a national issue that the president has to deal with and Congress has to deal with.
Policy.
ANDERSON: John, I haven't forgotten you, I want to get you to explain just how you think this military offensive might develop. But I want to get to
Istanbul where Arwa Damon is standing by.
It's important to point out, as the Turkish president has done today, as his foreign minister has also done, that this has been a long -- this has
been an offensive which has been talked about for months and months and months.
Quite frankly, the Turks have indeed it seems -- the Russians now believe that this is the opportunity to create peace and stability in Syria going
forward.
You have spent months and months over the past couple years, over the past nine years, in Syria. You listened to the words from the Turkish
government and those now that we're getting from the Russians as well. Your thoughts.
ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Becky, anytime you have the word "military operation" and "peace and stability" in the same
sentence, same paragraph, you have to pause and think about what is happening.
We all know what war looks like and we know what war in this region looks like. It's never as simple as someone wants it to be. It's not black and
white.
It's not as if Turkey is going to be able to sweep into this area, set up this buffer zone along hundreds of kilometers of border and not, first of
all, itself face significant backlash, not displace civilians from that area and not somehow create potentially even more chaos than what already
exists.
Yes, Turkey has undertaken similar operations in the past but those operations, Becky, were on significantly smaller scales. Presumably
because we know how war plays out, as Turkey moves in, as Clarissa has been reporting, civilians who live in these areas, Syrian Kurds are going to
begin fleeing the fighting.
What is the plan after that?
Does Turkey expect those Kurds to come back and live under some sort of Turkish administration?
Or is Turkey going to be moving these Syrian Arab refugees into these areas which are areas they're not even from?
Are we looking at some sort of demographic change that's going to be potentially be friendlier to Turkey?
Is Turkey's geopolitical strategy going to end up causing a lot more chaos and turmoil?
Look, it's really hard to see a scenario where it doesn't, given the various different frontlines that exist, the civilian population that will
be displaced and the fact that, as we have been reporting, this does, of course, create a vacuum that ISIS can then exploit. So it's an
extraordinarily messy situation.
[11:45:00]
DAMON: And we don't really know exactly what Turkey's plan is.
ANDERSON: Stand by, everybody. I have to take a very short break.
Before I do, this just coming in. Two civilians lost their lives, two others wounded in what's been this Turkish aerial bombardment targeting the
village of Misharrafa, west of Ras al-Ain, the SDF tweeting Turkish aircraft struck in a depth of 50 kilometers inside Syrian territory.
We're on the ground where you would expect us to be. Nick Paton Walsh on the Turkish-Syrian border. Clarissa Ward is inside northern Syria. Arwa
Damon is in Istanbul and we have experts around the world watching the story. We're going to take a very short break. Back after this.
[11:50:00]
ANDERSON: Updating you on our breaking news. Turkey has launched its long planned offensive in northern Syria. The Kurdish led Syrian Democratic
Forces report heavy Turkish bombardment hitting civilian homes in some Syrian villages. Now saying at least two civilians are dead in one area.
The Turkish President Erdogan announced the military action by tweet, saying the operation is meant to drive out terrorists, including the Syrian
Democratic Forces.
Calls for restraint coming in from around the world, NATO's secretary- general calling for restraint. And Russian president Vladimir Putin urging Erdogan to weigh the situation carefully.
Let's bring in Arwa Damon and John Kirby in Washington and Ron Astorino, who's a member of Mr. Trump's 2020 reelection advisory council.
John, I want to get to you. We are watching what is a much vaunted military offensive begin.
What do you make of what we're seeing at this point?
ADM. JOHN KIRBY (RET.), CNN MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ANALYST: From a military perspective, it's predictable. They're trying to soften up
targets through artillery, long range artillery and it looks like airstrikes as well, which makes sense before you put forces on the ground.
You want to make sure you've eliminated nodes of command and control or logistical support for forces.
As we have already reported, there have been civilian casualties. The Turkish military, while capable, is not exactly precise. They're not going
to be. It's not in their nature to deliberately go out of their way to avoid civilian casualties as they move into the area.
It's a big area, 600 miles long. They're talking about going 18 miles deep. It's questionable whether they have that ability. Lastly I'd say
look at long-term here. It's one thing to say you're going to go in and kill terrorists or push terrorists out.
As we learned the hard way in the American military, that if you're going to defeat terrorism in a given geographic area, it's not just about
clearing, it's about holding and sustaining a presence. There's a long- term aspect here I don't believe President Erdogan has fully thought through.
ANDERSON: Calls for restraint, not least from NATO, saying that NATO would rely on an eye to being measured in its actions. And reading what the SDF
has put out, "We showed good faith to the security mechanism agreement between the U.S. and Turkey. This left our people defenseless."
And they say, John -- I want to get your reaction.
"This left our people defenseless. We ask the U.S. and coalition for a no- fly zone to stop the attacks on innocent people."
What chance at this point?
KIRBY: Well, very little chance. I mean, the Turks will, as they move in, they'll face fighting by the SDF. The SDF are not going to cede that
territory. Of course, that brings up a whole other issue of who is guarding the ISIS prisoners further south and resources that will draw away
from the ISIS fight to counter this.
So the Turks are going to face resistance, no question about that. They will have overwhelming military capability and now the SDF will not have
any support from the United States, whether it's intel, air support.
Yes, they did ask for a no-fly zone. This administration was unwilling to provide that for them. In fact, the response from the administration in
the last few minutes has been anemic at best in terms of the support the SDF was getting.
All of this has signaled to Erdogan he wasn't going to face much resistance from the Trump administration as he planned this operation, which I know
has been long and --
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: Arwa, you're in Istanbul. You've spent many months over the past nine years in what has been this bloody conflict in Syria. Civilians
must be exhausted and now once again the fear of humanitarian casualties alongside -- John and I have been discussing the possibility of the
resurgence of ISIS and a possible massacre of these Kurdish fighters, who had fought on behalf of the U.S. to clear this corridor of the Islamic
group.
Your sense at this point?
DAMON: Becky, war is so inexplicably ugly. And when we look at it in military terminology, such as talking about softening a target and I do
understand that's the military's perspective on that, you'll end up with civilian casualties if the targets are in civilian areas.
In Syria, they most often are. It's unavoidable. People fleeing for their lives is entirely unavoidable. Nobody is going to stay at home, no matter
which side is actually bombarding them.
[11:55:00]
DAMON: If we look at the bigger picture of what Turkey is trying to accomplish, the YPG is not, as was said, just going to let Turkish forces
come in. The YPG is, in Turkey's perspective, a terrorist organization. One and the same as the PKK, whom they have been fighting for a decade and
the YPG is going to put up a fight.
The civilians in these areas, they already, many of these areas that Turkey is looking to push into, these were areas that were at one point in time
controlled by ISIS. It's a civilian population that already lived through that trauma.
Then the Kurds backed by the U.S. did manage to move in and push ISIS out. Civilians did eventually end up returning to some of the areas. And now
once again they're under a bombardment.
That has an extraordinary psychological toll on an individual. These are entire families that are going through this once again. And this is what
we see in all of these wars, no matter who is responsible for them.
And I think having covered them for so long, Becky, I don't understand why this is always the option that it seems that governments and those in power
go for.
To think that there wasn't some sort of other way to resolve this, one would have hoped that it is only an action that's being undertaken because
it is the only one and that the people of Syria, no matter what part of Syria they're from, they're not once again being played as political pawns.
ANDERSON: We're going to leave it there for this hour. But we're going nowhere.
I'm going to take a very short break. There is a popular saying among the Kurds that they have no friends but the mountains. Now Kurdish forces are
feeling abandoned by their American allies, are now looking up to the smoke billowing from their homes.
Turkey, of course, sees itself on the hunt and attack against a terrorist threat. More on this with me, next hour as we continue with what is our
breaking news here on CNN. Do stay with us.
[12:00:00]
END
