Return to Transcripts main page
Connect the World
Pakistan International Airlines Flight Crashes in Karachi; China Sends Message of Control; CNN Goes Inside Overwhelmed Brazilian Hospital; Oxford Vaccine Moves to Second Phase. Aired 10-11a ET
Aired May 22, 2020 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[10:00:24]
HALA GORANI, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: A passenger plane crashes in Pakistan. We've got the very latest details on this breaking story.
Then as China is left reeling from the coronavirus outbreak, we'll tell you about its new move to expand control over Hong Kong.
Also, we are live inside an ICU unit in Brazil. Doctors say they're facing the biggest challenge of their lives.
And as Oxford University announces vaccine trials are progressing well, CNN speaks to some of the brave volunteers involved in this study.
(MUSIC)
GORANI: We begin with breaking news out of Pakistan. A commercial jetliner crashed in a densely populated residential area. We're talking here about
Pakistan Flight 8303. It is an Airbus 320.
We're just getting images from the scene here. You can see fire, rubble, mangled power line lines, just a chaotic scene in the aftermath of that
crash. It happened, as I mentioned, in a highly populated area of the city. It's a residential area called Model Colony.
Richard Quest joins me live with more on what we know.
What can you tell us? Because I understand Pakistan Airlines have said, have told CNN that the pilot relayed that he had technical problems.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Yeah, so we believe and I won't say no because that all follows on afterwards, we believe that the
pilots were unable to lower the landing gear and they decided to do a go around when apparently there was a mayday that the plane had lost power.
And this is an Airbus A-320, it was 14 years old. As an aircraft, I mean, you know, the air worthiness of this craft is well, well, well beyond any
question.
So that's not -- in terms of -- is it likely to be the plane manufacturer or whatever? That doesn't -- that's highly unlikely.
What is more likely we're looking at is was there a technical fault and how did the pilots manage to fly the plane with that fault in mind? If the
landing gear hadn't deployed down, if the plane tried to do a go around, and for whatever reason there were further technical problems, one thing to
bear in mind, this plane only came back into operation in the last 24 hours, having been shut down as grounded as PIA was since the end of --
since late March. These are crucial issues that will be investigated in that regard -- Hala.
GORANI: And I just want to tell our viewers that 99 passengers were on board, eight crew, that's 107 people on board.
QUEST: Yes.
GORANI: What do we know about any deaths, if anyone survived this terrible crash?
QUEST: I'm very careful when I talk about survivors because it gives hope where none may or lots may exist. We know there were two survivors. That
has been confirmed.
And, you know, it would not surprise me if there were more because the plane was relatively low altitude. It is not as if it fell out of the sky
at 30,000 feet.
I think we will also be very concerned to check on the number of people on the ground who may have been killed and/or injured because, again, this was
a highly residential area. It was -- there was a time of -- there were -- people might have been at home.
And the awful part is people are getting ready for Eid -- celebration of Eid. So, you've got a whole variety of facts with pandemic, with religious
observances, with people who might have been at home, those on the plane, it's very difficult.
I mean, a plane crash is notoriously difficult because the wreckage is so complicated. If you now add in crashing into a residential area, the
importance of search and rescue, not recovery, search and rescue becomes even more crucial.
[10:05:01]
GORANI: Yeah. And news channels in Pakistan are reporting as you mentioned Eid, this is obviously the holiday at the end of the month of Ramadan, the
month of fasting. The most important holiday there and that many people might have been traveling to see their families, to spend time with their
families for Eid.
QUEST: Exactly.
GORANI: The residential area, do we -- what more do we know about it? Based on the video we're showing our viewers here, it looks very densely
populated, which raises the question as you mentioned, Richard, of potential casualties on the ground. Not just of people who are on that
flight.
QUEST: I think what's interesting and important to note first of all is the number of people on the aircraft. I mean, the plane carries, what, 200,
180 people. So, it's half full. Now, we don't know if it was half full because the way PIA was selling tickets, whether they kept the middle seats
free for example on this particular flight. It is a 3-3 configuration, three passengers on either side, in economy.
But you're talking about 180 or so passengers on a -- whatever the configuration was of this aircraft, 200 passengers in some configures. But
-- so we don't know why that number, but that's a high -- by the way, that's a high load number for these circumstances, which speaks to the Eid
feast that people were coming home to celebrate.
All these areas, around these airports, in these Pakistani cities are extremely crowded. Particularly new developments like this one as you can
see from the pictures, this Model Colony, as it were called.
GORANI: Yes.
QUEST: And now what really has to be done and I would suggest there is a matter of urgency, the two things that the airline needs to do, firstly, it
needs to relook at all aircraft in its fleet. And to make sure that they have been returned to service with proper maintenance. I don't -- by all
means find the black boxes, see if they're in good condition, start the read jut of that out of that.
That could take days, maybe weeks. But I think that bearing in mind these planes had only recently been -- recently returned to service, I think it
might have been a problem with landing gear, and this isn't just rampant speculation, by the way, Hala. This is common sense.
If we're hearing reports that the landing gear had a fault or whatever, then you really do need to go back and recheck the fleet that all the
correct maintenance was done as these aircraft were returned into service.
PIA is a perfectly respectively good airline. It had a checkered past in the past. It's got a few incidents that raised eyebrows, but that's about
all.
GORANI: All right. Richard, we'll see you later with more on our breaking news out of Karachi, Pakistan, a crash of a commercial jetliner over a
densely populated residential neighborhood called Model Colony. We know 107 people were on board.
We will -- we're not going to talk about numbers, numbers of people, numbers of potential fatalities and survivors until we get a clearer
picture, but 99 passengers, eight crew on board.
The airline spokesperson Abdullah Khan telling CNN a few hours ago that the pilot had relayed some technical problems aboard the flight. We'll bring
you more as we get it into CNN. Get the news in to CNN.
Now, on to our next story, CNN analysis is showing that Latin America has overtaken Europe and the United States in new COVID-19 cases. Mexico on
Thursday recorded its largest daily number of confirmed cases.
Here you see a family mourning as cemetery workers bury the remains of their loved one, a special area reserved for victims of novel coronavirus.
And CNN captured these images from above graves dug in the hills outside Sao Paulo. Brazil is now reporting its highest number of daily deaths.
And globally, there are now over 5.1 million cases, over 333,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. And the U.S. is accounting for
nearly a third of the world's confirmed cases with over 1.5 million, in the United States now, over 94,000 in country have died.
We'll have a lot more on what is going on in Latin America, by the way, with Nick Paton Walsh, who is in the country and who reported from an ICU
ward, overwhelmed, overwhelmed in Brazil with COVID cases.
But let's take you now to Hong Kong and China, because China is stirring controversy once again on the first day of its national people's congress,
proposing a law that allows it to bypass Hong Kong's local government and crack down on protests.
[10:10:14]
China claims the law is meant to prevent stop and punish violations of national security. But U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is calling the
law a death knell to Hong Kong's independence and urging Beijing to reconsider.
Well, of course, you'll remember that anti-government protests took over Hong Kong for six months last year. This law would ban any future protests.
Is this a Beijing power grab of Hong Kong?
Let's bring in CNN's Ivan Watson who is on the ground there.
What is the reaction to this legislation that was passed in Beijing, I van?
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, you think that people are very excited about the threat of coronavirus fading
in this city. But there was an awful lot of social media chatter about the heavy clouds hanging over it and the feeling that -- of real gloom and doom
because according to the handover agreement between Britain and China in 1997, when this former British colony was given back to rule by Beijing, it
was supposed to retain autonomy and govern itself with the exception of defense and foreign affairs, which would be handled by the central
government.
Well, now, suddenly, the one party system in Beijing has announced this national defense law. And that would be implemented, theoretically, pushed
through without consultation with the duly elected legislators here in Hong Kong.
And some of the measures would include preventing stopping and punishing violations of national security, criminalizing treason, secession, sedition
and subversion against the Chinese government, establishing a legal system and mechanisms to enforce the law, government would be -- here in Hong
Kong, would be obliged to carry out national security education and this would allow the central government to set up national security agency
presences here in Hong Kong to fulfill relevant duties. That sounds a lot like plain clothed secret police here in this city.
The response from the opposition here in Hong Kong has been just short of panic. Take a listen to what one legislator, opposition legislator has to
say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DENNIS KWOK, CIVIC PARTY LAWMAKER: I just want to say to the international community that this is the end of Hong Kong. This is the end of one
country, two system. Make no mistake about it, that Beijing, the central people's government has completely breached its promise to the Hong Kong
people, a promise that was enshrined in the Sino-British joint declaration and the basic law.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WATSON: Now, there are already these existing political divisions here, but Hong Kong is also a center of international trade and finance. And
we're hearing already from people in the business community here, real concern. The chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce saying that this
new security law could jeopardize future prospects for international business.
You already have Congress people in the U.S. who are talking about the possibility of sanctions. There is legislation in the U.S. Congress that if
Hong Kong's autonomy is removed, that Hong Kong could lose its special trading status with the U.S. and certainly that would be a major concern
for international corporations here if a new era of censorship, the likes of which exist nearby, very nearby in mainland China, are imposed here.
The liaison office for the Chinese central government in Hong Kong insists that freedom of speech and assembly will remain the same. But the Hong Kong
administration and the central government in China are also saying that these new strict measure are being introduced in response to protests which
they characterize as having been a threat to all of China's national security.
Hala, if you spent any time in a police state, that umbrella of national security can be used to arrest an awful lot of people for reasons that may
not have anything to do with that -- Hala.
GORANI: All right. Ivan, thank you very much.
Worry in Hong Kong, let's take you to Beijing -- Beijing where China abandoned the growth target, which is passing laws that in Hong Kong some
see as a straight-up power grab. And exerting and influencing and extending control over the territory.
David Culver is in Beijing and joins me.
Why this move now, David?
[10:15:02]
DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's interesting hearing Ivan, Hala, talk about the censorship that happens here because this conversation, which
normally would be on air here many mainland China is not airing, it's being blacked out. And that was the case over the last several months with the
Hong Kong protests in particular and anything that's deemed sensitive here. So they will simply block it out. And prevent it from airing.
That being said, it is important to characterize this as Ivan mentioned as that national security. And that is the umbrella of which they are covering
it entire movement here and they have looked at the Hong Kong protest, not as protest, they don't even use that word in a lot of the state media
publications, but rather as riders who are performing demonstrations.
So, that's how they're going forward with that. It is also interesting to see that they're saying this will ultimately ease the chaos there. They say
look at Hong Kong in 2019, as one editorial was putting it in "Global Times", government controlled newspaper, it had not a single day this which
they saw some peace and calm, that's how they're characterizing 2019 and the protests there and say this will bring that, this will ultimately ease
some of the turmoil that has hit Hong Kong.
And they say also they're not only trying to stop those internal forces, which they consider to be pro independence forces, not pro-democracy, but
also the external ones -- particularly the U.S., Hala.
GORANI: All right. David Culver in Beijing, thanks to both of you for covering this development.
Ahead on the program, a large observational study just published points to just how dangerous the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine we have been
talking about a lot that the president of the United States says he's been taking for several weeks, how dangerous it actually is. Why it may not be
the right treatment after all.
We'll be right back.
Also, Brazil's president dismissed COVID-19 as just a little flu. But for doctors and nurses on the front lines, it's anything but.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Well, many of you, I hadn't heard of a drug called hydroxychloroquine just a few months ago. But because the president of the
United States repeatedly touted it, as a treatment or a prophylactic against COVID-19, it has been in the news almost daily.
And then the president dropped that bombshell a few days ago saying he had been taking this anti-malaria drug for the last couple of weeks. Well, now,
we are getting information, medical, fact-based information about whether or not this drug is safe to take to prevent the COVID-19 infection in
humans. And this large study just out today has just been published in "The Lancet".
Let's get straight to our senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen.
And I read only the headline because essentially this dropped only minutes before I went on the air today.
[10:20:03]
But essentially the headline is, is that it's potentially deadly, that it should not be used for reasons other than treating autoimmune diseases or
malaria, right?
ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Hala, I'm going to add a caveat to what you said, which is in hospitalized patients. This
was a study in hospitalized patients and, yes, what it found was that people who took it actually had a higher risk of dying, the whole reason
they got the drug was to prevent them from dying, but it did the opposite.
So, let's look at what this study did. This is a huge study, much larger than any that had been previously published, 671 hospitals on six
continents, nearly 15,000 hospitalized patients who received chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, which are essentially the same drug, sometimes in
combination with azithromycin or similar kinds of antibiotics, some with it, some without it.
When they took those -- those patients who took the drugs were 33 percent to 45 percent more likely to die than those who didn't. That's even after
adjusting between differences in the patients and underlying illness, et cetera. They were also 2.4 to 5 times more likely to develop heart
arrhythmias.
What this says, this is now the third major published paper that shows that there are issues with this drug. This says not only -- it wasn't that it
didn't do anything, it made people more likely to die. According to all the experts I talked to, they -- this should not be prescribed to patients in
the hospital, this it does not work and might actually be harmful, according to this study is actually harmful.
The question of whether it works as a preventative is a different question. But certainly, some experts I've talked to have voiced concerns, sort of
doubt, as is to why should we study this as a preventative when it's shown to be so harmful in patients in the hospital?
GORANI: All right. Thanks very much for clearing that up. Elizabeth Cohen there with more on that study, hospitalized patients more likely to die if
they take it, unclear if it is taken as a preventative drug.
To Brazil now, an absolute explosion in COVID death numbers. Now, the case count has surpassed 300,000 there. Only the United States and Russia have
more deaths. But Brazil may soon overtake Russia if it continues on this path.
President Bolsonaro is under immense pressure. The economy is teetering on the edge of destruction, which could threaten his hopes for being
reelected.
Nick Paton Walsh is in Brazil and he visited an ICU ward in a hospital there -- Nick.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: Hala, across Latin America, the picture is increasingly bleak. For three consecutive days,
it's this region that has had the most new cases, not the United States, not Europe, and frankly Brazil bearing the brunt of that, specifically Sao
Paulo itself. It's startling to realize they're getting 20,000 new cases a day, have just passed that mark in the total number of deaths, 20,000
total, and record 1,188 in the previous 24 hours.
Sao Paulo itself under a degree of lockdown, but so much across Brazil tempered by the mixed messages from the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
But none of that impacts what is happening on the front line in the fight against the virus.
(voice-over): Sao Paulo, the biggest city and hottest spot for coronavirus in Brazil deathly quiet. Outside Emilio Ribas Hospital, no new patients
arriving on ambulances is not a good sign. In fact, it spells the worst because this huge ICU has run out of beds.
(on camera): What's startling here is the peak is possibly well over a week away from hitting Brazil and already this enormous ICU is full, and in
between the beds there is the growing sense of anxiety, fear really about what lies ahead.
(voice-over): Doctors here have heard President Jair Bolsonaro dismiss the disease as a little flu. But presidential platitudes haven't protected
them.
One of their nurses died two days ago. Inside this room is one of the team's doctors on a ventilator and another just tested positive this day.
JACQUES SZTAJNBOK, EMILIO RIBAS INFECTIOUS DISEASES INSTITUTE: Never before like this time because we have never lost a colleague in this
intensive care before. Yes, definitely, it's not a flu. It's the worst thing we have ever faced in our professional lives.
WALSH (on camera): Are you worried for your life here?
SZTAJNBOK: Yeah. Yes.
WALSH (voice-over): It's a virus that stifles and silences. But suddenly here, there is commotion. One patient, a woman in her 40s, has had cardio-
respiratory failure. The doctor's heavy press (ph) is the only thing keeping her alive. But after about 40 minutes, it's clear she can't
survive.
The body is cleaned, the tubes that kept her alive disconnected and she's wheeled out.
The space will be needed. It all happens so fast, but leaves a long scar.
A scene so distant from presidential rallies, masks now common much of the time. But wealth put before health.
We have to be brave, he says, to face this virus. Are people dying? Yes, they are, but I'll regret that, but many more are going to die if the
economy continues to be destroyed because of these lockdown measures.
The holes here in the hills above Sao Paulo are not dug ready for a recession, though. Endless fresh graves for the dead who also seem to never
stop arriving.
(on camera): In Brazil, the numbers are already staggering and it's clear, it's not the entire picture because testing simply isn't as widespread as
they would like. But everywhere you go, you see the people understand this is just the beginning.
And this is the issue really here in Brazil. The scenes you've seen there are familiar to people around the world, Hala. They have dealt with mass
graves, because of overwhelmed health systems. They have dealt with ICUs where colleagues, doctors, see their colleagues dealing -- being dealt with
as patients as well.
And that is something which is happening here before the peak even gets under way. It is not precise, but it is possibly a week, two weeks away, so
those scenes you've seen there are going to get worse, in a country where there isn't an influent resource for the healthcare system and there is no
clear message from the president necessarily about what to do. And they're advocating on a government level, the use of hydroxychloroquine.
Now, that is something President Donald Trump has been very keen on, he's taken it, he says, and here it is being advocated for use in not just
severe cases as well. So, complex series of messages for Brazilians to try and digest here, but nothing necessarily complex about how deadly this
disease is, as you saw there, that is deeply simple and Sao Paulo will see sadly more of that in the weeks ahead -- Hala.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: All right, thanks very much, Nick Paton Walsh.
After the break, we all know who the unmasked man is, but political pundits are still trying to figure out why the U.S. president said no to safety
guidelines.
Plus, I'll speak to renowned probability expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb who wrote "The Black Swan" about the uncertainties we now face and what leaders
could do to help for the potential next wave.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:30:24]
GORANI: The U.S. death toll from coronavirus is nearing a staggering 95,000 across the country.
The U.S. President Donald Trump visited a Ford auto plant yesterday near Detroit. That facility is now making ventilators for patients with the
deadly virus, but Mr. Trump defied Michigan state law and his own administration safeguards by refusing to wear protective gear during much
of the tour. The mask came off whenever a camera went on.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I did wear -- I had one on before. I wore one in this back area. But I didn't want to give the press
the pleasure of seeing it.
Here is my mask right here. And I liked it very much. I actually -- honestly, I think I look better in the mask. I really do. I look better in
the mask.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: So, John Harwood joins us now live from the White House.
The president didn't want to give the media the pleasure of seeing the president in a mask. Where is he coming from with this now?
JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hala, I think there are a couple of things behind his refusal to promote mask wearing. One is simple
vanity. The president likes to look large and in charge. I think he feels if he puts the mask on, he doesn't look that way.
Second of all, it conflicts with his message everything is fine and it is time to open up the economy. If people are wearing masks, that connotes a
sense of hazard for people, for both workers and for consumers. He doesn't want to spend that message.
And the third thing is, a political message. This is a president who when he's under pressure, in political difficulty, and he's in a lot of
political difficulty in his re-election year right now, he tends to extend messages to his political base and within his base, the defiance of mask
wearing has become a culture war symbol. People saying you're not going to restrict my freedom, it's just nerds and scaredy cats who wear masks, so
we're not going to do it.
And then you saw on that clip you just played, the second half of the culture war message, that is saying to the press I'm not going to give you
the satisfaction of seeing me in a mask. Much of Donald Trump's base thinks the press is against him, they think it is fake news, and they like the
fact that he doesn't give in to the press.
The problem for the president is that he's on the short side of not only public health in not wearing a mask, since it is obviously an important
step toward limiting the transmission of the virus, but he's also on the short side of public opinion. New ABC poll out says today that 60 percent
of the American people disapprove his response to coronavirus. And in a poll that came out yesterday, 70 percent embraced mask wearing as a
respectful way to take care of yourself and take care of others.
So, the 30 percent that agrees with the president, that's about the size of his base. It's not enough to win an election. And we'll see whether he gets
any additional benefit out of this stance he took yesterday.
GORANI: Thank you, John Harwood.
Worldwide, the number of coronavirus cases has now passed 5.1 million, around the world, 333,000 people have died after contracting COVID.
Let's get the bigger picture of how this pandemic is unfolding with my next guest, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He's the author of "The Black Swan: The
Impact of the Highly Improbable," and scientific adviser at Universa Investments. He joins me now live via Skype from Atlanta.
And you've been talking about and in your book "Black Swan" -- black swan essentially describes a rare, unpredictable catastrophic event. But you
don't believe the pandemic is a black swan, why not?
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB, AUTHOR, "THE BLACK SWAN: THE IMPACT OF HIGHLY IMPROBABLE": In "The Black Swan" itself, I explain that one virus can take
over the world and that would be a white swan, something that is highly expected.
But first, you can't really call the black swan something that's in movies. We had pandemics and very well-documented pandemics and the entire economic
structure of the Middle Ages was built around quarantines and lockdowns, OK? The entire economic structure.
I mean, when merchants sent merchandise, OK, they allowed for a quarantine. Ships had quarantines. It is completely built into the economic system and,
of course, in literature, all you have to do is pick a history book.
[10:40:00]
So what we have today is --
GORANI: Yes.
TALEB: -- is a conjunction of two bad things. The first one is, you know, we ignore the existence of these -- what we call (INAUDIBLE) risks and the
second one which is worse, that our world is much more connected than it was in the Middle Ages. We have something that can spread via super
spreaders, conferences in Las Vegas. Yes.
GORANI: So the connectivity that defines our system now is what makes these pandemics so deadly in the sense that they spread so incredibly
rapidly.
So, the question, of course, on everyone's mind is, what is the right approach? I mean, would have been --
TALEB: OK.
GORANI: -- to quarantine whole sections of the economy, you know, in January, when you knew that this would be coming from China?
TALEB: OK. So what we started suggesting in January was early reaction, it costs two pennies, of course, it costs (INAUDIBLE) you act early, you try
exactly what to do to isolate areas, and then later on figure out the value of masks because a mask, even if imperfect, OK, masks reduce the
transmission rate dramatically because if I have a mask, it's in the good. You have a mask, it is not good. The probability is compounded.
So the risk goes down from 75 percent to 95 percent or to 100 percent, close to 100 percent out to 12 to five feet. So, masks -- mandating masks
in public, killing super spreaders, I mean, shutting down big super spreader events and the rest is detail. I mean, you can have normal
economic life.
Super spreaders and masks, that was what we thought was the right attitude at the time.
GORANI: But we don't have normal economic life, because I mean -- you can argue that I'm in the U.K., other countries around the world are going to
see contractions and growth that are absolutely catastrophic. Catastrophic.
TALEB: Yes, OK, this is --
GORANI: And so, the reaction to this pandemic was to completely shut down, completely shut down the economy, like a switch.
TALEB: Yes. So, the problem is they took it -- they acted too late. They had super spreader events in the U.K. few days before shutting down. So,
you realize you can't -- it is like a push on the brake and accelerator and during the same minute, OK? Most people, you know, have an hour separating
such (INAUDIBLE).
So the reaction was maybe necessary because it had gone too far and we had a lot of incompetence. We accused the World Health Organization of
incompetence by not recommending masks on grounds that, you know, it would confuse people. In fact, it was almost criminal, negligence, on the part of
CDC in Atlanta, where I am. CDC also did not recommend masks.
So they acted in a very unscientific way by mixing absence of that, (INAUDIBLE) saying, well, there is no evidence masks were -- no evidence
they don't work. And then they discovered the evidence was there and so, we have incompetence on the top.
And then the other problem is, in the Medieval days, people acted very quickly, very, very quickly. Our grandmothers knew how to react to these
things. Today, all these Fancy Nancy modelers --
GORANI: Yes.
TALEB: -- are completely out of touch with reality.
GORANI: OK. I guess the obvious follow-up is, we are -- we have been given warnings of a second wave, even before we hit the peak. That once we
reopen, quite naturally, because people obviously congregate, this is just the way we interact and the way our economies function, we will see another
wave potentially. So, the obvious question is how do we prevent the second wave or mitigate its effects?
TALEB: OK. The idea is, forget about second wave, we have no idea how the virus works. And you have -- some people may claim projections and stuff.
You have to act as if you didn't know where the virus was going to go, OK? Be robust to it, so don't build your house based on the weather report, you
see?
So long run, in the long run, we have to be adaptive as an economy to withstand the shocks and that is, you know, the thing that I -- we fail to
understand is that why is it that we became so sophisticated as to ignore the effect -- the nonlinear effect of the shocks on our economies when the
ancients knew very well --
GORANI: Yes.
TALEB: -- the impact of the pandemics.
So, we are not as sophisticated as we should be. We should have risk managements in place at the local level, not so much at the country level,
because countries have too many bureaucrats who don't act very well in this. And the local level, let the locales react the way they want to
react, prevent super spreaders, the top level, and encourage economic activity under huge caution.
[10:40:08]
Like for example, masks should be mandatory and also have a mechanism by which testing is -- let me tell you, don't you feel disturbed living in a
society where people spend billions of dollars, trillions, on nuclear weapons, when citizens can't be tested for COVID?
OK, this is -- it is crazy. Crazy allocation of risk in this society.
GORANI: Really, thank you so much for joining us. It is just -- I've been reading with interest your take on this and also your warnings all the way
back in January. And, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, joining us from Atlanta, thank you.
And while most of the world begins easing lockdown restrictions, much of the Arabian Gulf region is actually tightening restrictions once again. Why
some countries are bringing back some of these strict measures.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Here in the U.K., the oxford COVID-19 vaccine is moving to the next phase of human trials. Oxford University says the first phase saw more
than 1,000 immunizations. The next study will involve ten times that number and will include children. Now, it all comes as the pharmaceutical giant
AstraZeneca says it plans to manufacture the vaccine with first delivers as early as September.
Chief correspondent Clarissa Ward is live in Oxford.
And you've spoken to some of those trial participants. What do they tell you?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, it's interesting, because they seem to be bound by this sense of duty and this
desire to kind of contribute or participate in make way in the face of a pandemic that essentially feels or leaves people feeling, I should -- at
least people feeling, I should say, out of control or completely impotent and powerless.
And now, we're looking at a whole new phase as you mentioned, 10,000 participants, children tested, elderly being tested. This really is moving
at lightning speed. And not everybody thinks that's a great idea.
Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WARD (voice-over): It is the oldest university in the English-speaking world. But Oxford University may soon be better known for taking a big step
forward in the global race to develop a vaccine against COVID-19.
Graduate student Dan McAteer is one of more than 1,000 volunteers who signed up to be subjects in the first round of human trials. All
participants had to be between 18 and 55, and in excellent health. Half were given the experimental COVID-19 vaccine, and half were given a control
vaccine.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAN MCATEER, OXFORD VACCINE TRIAL VOLUNTEER: I, like all of, us felt very much impotent and powerless in the middle of a pandemic.
[10:45:05]
So, I thought this sounds like maybe I can contribute in some way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WARD: Mother of two, Lydia Guthrie had her inoculation three weeks ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LYDIA GUTHRIE, OXFORD VACCINE TRIAL VOLUNTEER: I did have a few moments beforehand of thinking, whoa, you know, I might be injected with this
experimental vaccine. That sounds like something out of a science fiction film. But we're all having to make decisions about risk.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WARD: Guthrie says she experienced some side effects similar to a mild flu. Next week, she will go back for her first blood test.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GUTHRIE: We have an e-diary system, so every day I get an e-mail as a prompt to log in and complete a short questionnaire about my health and
well-being. I also complete a questionnaire about my daily activities.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WARD: The vaccine's developers have made some bold predictions, saying it could be mass produced as early as September. But some experts have cast
doubt on that optimism, pointing to test results on monkeys, while none of the vaccinated animals suffered from pneumonia after being injected with
COVID-19, they did still contract the virus.
Jenner Institute director professor Adrian Hill says the data has been misconstrued.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ADRIAN HILL, DIRECTOR, JENNER INSTITUTE: We are very confident that the result in these countries is as good as we could've hope for.
WARD: Is the goal of this vaccine to create immunity, or is it simply to prevent the worst symptoms?
HILL: So, I think it will likely be one of the other, it doesn't work at all or it works against infection and disease. That's certainly how
vaccines work.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WARD: McAteer concedes he will be disappointed if the vaccine doesn't work.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCATEER: If you are part of something and you've given it your time and it's been a subject of a bit of anxiety of course because there are risks
attached, of course, you want your vaccine to succeed.
But fundamentally, we just need a vaccine to succeed or even better multiple vaccines to succeed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WARD: In the end, the real race is against the virus and time.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WARD: Now, Dan and Lydia, the two subjects you just saw in that story, they haven't even had this blood test yet. They are going to be having them
on Sunday and Monday. That does give some experts a little bit of pause for concern in the sense that you're already announcing launching this whole
new wave of new trials, and you don't yet even have the results in fully from the first round of trials.
And also talking about those monkeys, which we mentioned, there was some concern again from certain experts that the monkeys did not show a high
level of the neutralizing antibodies that are needed to guarantee immunity to COVID-19. So while there's a lot of excitement about this new potential
vaccine, there's also some skepticism, some concern, some people saying let's just take it step by step and wait and see what the results are --
Hala.
GORANI: All right. Thanks very much. Clarissa Ward is in oxford.
A number of countries in the Arabian Gulf had relaxed measures before Ramadan. However, the holy month was followed by a sharp spike in confirmed
cases. Ramadan is obviously a time when families and friends get together to break their fast potentially spreading the virus more.
As you can see on this graphic, it's very clear, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and United Arab emirates experienced many more cases during
this period.
John Defterios joins us from Abu Dhabi with more on what measures will be reinstated, John.
JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN BUSINESS EMERGIONG MARKETS EDITOR: Well, I'll tell you, Hala, they had a strategy here, that is to flatten the curve very
early in the game here and hoping to ease the restrictions going into Ramadan. They had to delay that easing. When they did ease, boy, it was a
snapback aggressive here.
I think the most severe case in terms of the overall number has to be the most populated country in the region, that's the gulf state of Saudi Arabia
and home to Mecca and Medina, two holy sites. They searched past 60,000 a lot for a population of 30 million, back to the lockdown, very restrictive.
Here in the UAE, the case is not surging as much, but they've taken the curfew, for example, from 10:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., to restrict the
movement. Kuwait saw sevenfold increase, Hala, it's a small population, but the numbers were surging.
Then you have a case like Qatar, which is building up to 2022 World Cup, right? Labor issues here because of the South Asians that are in the region
in construction, Bangladeshis, from Pakistan, from India here. It is forcing to rethink overall about labor practices, but the health care for
the workers, the hygiene, even the transport.
[10:50:01]
So, it will not be business as usual. It's not clear at this stage whether increased measures here to lock down will remain well after their holiday
weekend we see right now marking the end of Ramadan.
GORANI: All right. And obviously it's also an economic question about how businesses will adjust because the lockdown measures are hurting the
economy, not just in the Gulf but elsewhere.
DEFTERIOS: I'm glad you asked it, because it's all about a recalibration of your priorities right now. As you know, Hala, this weekend is a time for
celebration when consumer spending is usually high, major discounts, gives a lift to the economy. It's very subdued right now.
So, we've seen measures particularly in Dubai trying to restart growth. They opened up Dubai and other malls, with limited hours. Again, those
hours dialed back during this crisis right now, but just at 30 percent capacity, but there's no rush to go in.
We spoke 24 hours ago at Dubai National Airport, they opened up nine destinations but they used to serve 157. Then there's a question, who can
come back as residents or citizens, under which conditions, right? Big question mark.
Bilateral ties. They are trying to open those up with other countries as well.
Then there was a survey that alarmed many in the Dubai Chamber of Commerce that was released saying that you could have 50 percent of the businesses
in Dubai, ranging from restaurants to construction companies go bankrupt by the end of the year and shut down. That's how much it slowed down.
We have to remind our viewers that we're in the midst of an oil crisis, $35 a barrel, not $60 or $70. It doesn't work for the region.
So, this COVID-19 is a challenge. They are trying to open up. When they did open up around the holiday, the snapback was great. They are trying to find
the balance and it's not easy.
GORANI: Not easy for anyone. Thanks, John Defterios.
We're going to take a break when we come back from refugee to filmmaker, to cleaning COVID-19 wards in hospitals. We bring you the story of
perseverance and humanity in the face of the pandemic.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GORANI: Well, even with the pandemic being hard for many of us, one man who has been through grueling times has still found a way to give back to
the community that welcomed him.
Syrian refugee-turned-filmmaker Hassan Akkad now works for the National Health Service in the U.K. as a cleaner.
I spoke with him about his story and asked him what motivated him to do that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI (voice-over): From a perilous journey from war-torn Syria, to a career as a BAFTA and Emmy-winning filmmaker, Syrian refugee Hassan Akkad
is taking on one of his biggest challenges yet, cleaning COVID-19 wards in his local hospital in East London.
HASSAN AKKAD, NHS WORKER: Since I've been here, I have to say I've been treated very well by the community. I've lived with a British family in
their spare room in south London for a year until I can get back on my feet. I was supported by the community, by the public. So this is my way of
saying thank you, basically.
GORANI: A tweet Akkad posted last month went viral. It showed the 32-year- old in full protective gear in a hospital restroom.
AKKAD: It's mentally demanding because we're cleaning and disinfecting every inch of the wards.
[10:55:05]
While wearing PPE which makes you sweat, out of breath because of wearing the masks. And mentally because you do, unfortunately, see some patients
passing away.
GORANI: It is a dangerous job handling bags full of COVID-19 contaminated trash, he works five eight-hour shifts a week.
Akkad says he never wanted to leave Syria but says he was detained and tortured after taking part in anti-government protests.
He pays tribute to make of the frontline workers in his coronavirus ward on social media like Gemba (ph) who didn't take a day off even when her own
mother became ill.
AKKAD: I work with heroes. That's all I can say.
GORANI: But it sometimes takes a toll on a man who hasn't seen his own family in a long time.
AKKAD: A guy came to drop some stuff for his mom, a patient in our ward. He was begging to come in and see his mom. No one is allowed in for health
and safety reasons. He said, I really want to see her. For a second, he cried and walked away.
And it hurts because I also haven't seen my mom in years, and I know exactly how he felt. Yes. It's changed our rituals. We no longer -- sorry.
GORANI: After this is all over, Akkad wants to make films again, but says he's ready for the next time he might be called on to pay it forward.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GORANI: That was Hassan Akkad. Just a clarification, he did volunteer his services, he doesn't get paid for this cleaning job, a very dangerous job
that involves being exposed to COVID every single day.
A programming note for you, especially if you miss sports, don't miss "The Match". Golfers Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning face-off against Phil
Mickelson and Tom Brady all for charity. So, it's golf against football. That's airing this Sunday, at 3:00 p.m. in New York, 8:00 p.m. in, yes, in
London. There you have it.
I'm Hala Gorani. More for the next hour, we're going to get the very latest on that terrible passenger jet plane crash in Karachi after the break.
Do stay with us. We have a live report coming to us from Pakistan.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:00:00]
END
