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President Donald Trump Holding Huge Rallies Despite COVID Warnings; Joe Biden Pledges To Be A President For All Americans; Italy Imposing Tighter Restrictions As Cases Surge; Wales Announces Two-Week "Firebreak" Lockdown; China's Economy Grew 4.9 Percent In Third Quarter; PLO Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat In Critical Condition. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired October 19, 2020 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Abu Dhabi, this is CONNECT THE WORLD with Becky Anderson.
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BECKY ANDERSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: This hour, 40 million people infected by the invisible enemy worldwide. That is 4-0 followed by another
six zeros. I'm Becky Anderson. Hello and welcome to what is our expanded edition of "Connect the World", two hours of news for you across the world.
COVID-19 infections hitting our globe like a tsunami, Europe blighted by its second wave and getting worse. Meanwhile in America, infections piling
up by close to 60,000 a day. That is up some 60 percent since September the Former Head of America's Food and Drug Administration predicting another
wave to hit before the New Year.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. SCOTT GOTTLIEB, FORMER FDA COMMISSIONER: We're in a difficult situation heading into the fall. I think the only caveat is in terms of us being
better prepared for this wave is that we have dramatically improved clinical care in hospitals. So I think we're going to have better outcomes
overall but we're still going to have a lot of depth in disease between now and the end of the year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Cases trending in the wrong direction I'm afraid in more than half of the U.S. states, 27 states reporting spikes in new cases today.
Some of those are where President Donald Trump is holding huge rallies crisscrossing the country hoping to turn the election his way with polls
showing him lagging Joe Biden. You'll notice at these gatherings there's very little social distancing and very few masks. The exact opposite of
what nearly every health expert is pleading for. Well, the U.S. president seems un-faced.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: If you vote for Biden, he will surrender your jobs to China; he'll surrender your future to the
virus. He is going to lockdown. He just wants us to go to lockdown. He'll listen to the scientists. If I listened totally to the scientists we would
right now have a country that would be in a massive depression instead we're like a docked ship, take a look at the numbers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Yes, that's the President of the United States mocking his opponent for listening to scientists in the middle of what is a pandemic.
Well, speaking of Joe Biden. He's zigzagging the U.S. urging his supporters to not become complacent and to get out and vote.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So much is at stake for this nation. The very soul of the nation is at stake. Folks, as my coach used to say in
colleges it's go time. It's the most important the election in our lifetime going to make all the difference here in North Carolina.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, some of Mr. Trump's fellow Republicans seem to be slowly backing away from him as he downplays the Coronavirus. No surprise. He has
some frank words for them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The Republicans, I love the Republicans. We have some great ones but they have to learn to stick together better. We have some stupid people.
Some of them are gone. But now we have this guy Sasse. He wants to make a statement. Little Ben Sasse, the Republicans have to stick together better.
One thing I respect about the Democrats they stick together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[11:05:00]
ANDERSON: Well, my next guest is urging more Republicans to break away from Mr. Trump. She writes in "USA Today" op-ed "When America's children study
the Trump Era they will ask where we stood and what we did to help right what was wrong in our time?"
Well, Jennifer Horn joins me now. She is the Co-Founder of the Lincoln Project and Former Chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. I just
wonder what led you to make this plea in this op-ed.
JENNIFER HORN, FORMER CHAIR, NEW HAMSHIRE REPUBLICAN PARTY: Well, thank you so much for having me. This has been for me a year's long effort to try to
get my fellow Republicans to understand just how damaging Donald Trump is? Not just to our party but to our country and to our position in world.
We are facing the most critical moment probably of my lifetime, facing a pandemic that has been horribly managed for political reasons. Hundreds of
thousands of American lives have been lost, so many more around the world. And Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the difference between them can be seen
just in way that they campaign to the point that you just made.
Donald Trump out there drawing thousands of people together, shoulder to shoulder, no masks, every Trump rally is a COVID-19 super spreader event
and Joe Biden being out there being responsible, caring about the health and well-being of our nation and showing it in way that he behaves.
ANDERSON: Jennifer, you write as a Former Republican State Party Chair I understand well how difficult it is to even imagine voting outside the
party but now after years of destruction at the hands of this president, I have to ask my fellow Republicans is this your party? What was your turning
point?
HORN: Well, I'll be honest with you. The first time I wrote publicly against Donald Trump was in April of 2011 when he was thinking about
running in 2012 cycle. I have always been in opposition to Donald Trump and the dangerous narcissism that he brings to everything he does.
But I've advocated against supporting Donald Trump from the beginning even when I was Chairman in New Hampshire I spoke out against him. But we have
reached this moment where my fellow Republicans have got to be honest with themselves about the damage our party is doing to our country.
The only way that the Republican Party has any chance at all of moving forward the from this election with any sort of integrity or credibility is
if they fully reject Donald Trump and Trumpism and everything that he has brought to our country, the grief and sorrow and pain that he's inflicted
on our country. Otherwise I don't see a future, frankly, a credible future for the Republican Party in the United States.
ANDERSON: The Lincoln Project is set up to do exactly that, to get Republicans to understand that this is not a man who represents their
party. Very briefly are you actually seeing evidence that this is working, though, that people are turning?
HORN: Absolutely.
ANDERSON: --for the good of the party as it were?
HORN: Well, and look I want people to do this for the good of the United States of America, but across this country we've seen hundreds of current
and Former Republican leaders that have come forward and spoken up and put their names on it.
We've seen thousands of activists come forward in other organizations in addition to our own to make it very clear. And I do believe that this is a
national movement here. That on the Election Day or in days that follow where we see these results we're going to learn that Donald Trump is
defeated not just by Democrats and Independents but by an overwhelming number of Republicans as well.
ANDERSON: OK. And we're just two weeks out so clearly the result will reveal whether, indeed, that's happened. I just wonder whether America is
ready to hear the divide. Joe Biden repeating that idea he sounds for America, not Democratic or Republican, just have a listen.
HORN: Right.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BIDEN: I'm running as a proud Democrat. But I will govern as an American President. No red states, no blue states, just the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: And the reason I ask you the question about whether you think America is ready to heal the divide? Is - this is a tone that some are
suggesting given how divided the country is some are suggesting that the nation isn't ready and wanting to heal at this point?
HORN: Well, this is certainly they're voting for Joe Biden is the first step. I love to hear him say that because my thought immediately every time
I hear Joe Biden say that, is that I get that.
[11:10:00]
HORN: Because I'm going to be voting as a Republican, but for America. I am voting for Joe Biden. That doesn't mean I'm a Democrat. I'm voting for him
because I know that he's best for our country that in this moment we need somebody who is willing to start trying to draw us together again.
Whether or not we're ready for that, that's going to be on the American people? I do think that there's exhaustion in our country with the anger
and division and hatred that has been incited by this president and I think that voting for Joe Biden is the first step.
ANDERSON: President Trump's Former Key Strategist told an Australian Newspaper "I'll make this prediction right now. If for any reason the
election is stolen from or in some sort of way Joe Biden is declared the winner, Trump will announce he's going to run for re-election in 2024.
You're not going to see the end of Donald Trump". He did the other day he just might leave the country if he doesn't win this election. But I wonder
what your thoughts are on what Steve Bannon said?
HORN: Well, look let's bring it. You know this is what Donald Trump and the hardest of his base has to understand. The Lincoln Project is not going
anywhere and the millions and millions of Americans, including Republicans who reject this president's racism and hatred and division and his
willingness to literally sacrifice hundreds of thousands of American lives to advance his own narcissistic political ambitions we're not going
anywhere either.
Once Donald Trump is defeated at the ballot box this November he is not going to have the opportunity to win back the White House in the future, I
can promise you that. But that only happens if every American comes together in this moment right now and does what they need to do, what they
know is right for our country on Election Day.
ANDERSON: We are in final stretch and it's very unlikely that we will get a result on election night but we are in final stretch of this election 2020.
Thank you. As we mentioned earlier, 27 million Americans have already cast their ballots for president with two weeks to go until Election Day.
So in this last leg of the race, I want to zone in on the Electoral College which to many of us who aren't living and breathing American politics, it
seems confusing. Here is Mary Maloney (ph).
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Americans do not vote directly for their president. I'm not talking about a government conspiracy; I'm talking about the
Electoral College a system that's been around since the birth of our nation. What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is not a building or institution, it's just a name given to a designated group of people who cast each state's official votes
for president. This group is made up of 538 people. Each state has a different number of electors based on their representatives in Congress.
So states like California and Texas have more votes than states like North and South Dakota the only exception the District of Columbia which has
three elect electors despite not having any members in congress.
How does it work? Each party selects their own group of electors, each state that empowers the electors who represent the candidate who won the
most votes except Nebraska and Maine who will award electors based on a combination of state wide results and districts won. The candidate who
receives at least 270 Electoral College votes becomes the next president.
What if there's a tie? If there is a tie or if somebody doesn't get to 27 the House of Representatives appoints the president and the Senate chooses
the vice president. Why does this system exist? In short the Electoral College was created as a compromise of several different proposals by the
nation's founders.
Critics say the system allows candidates can become president without necessarily securing a majority of voters support. Advocates argue it
ensures less populated states aren't completely ignored. How are these people selected?
The electors are chosen by their political parties in each state. The only rule is that they cannot currently hold office. Can an elector ignore the
popular vote? Yes. It's called a faithless elector. But it's rare and it is never affected the outcome of an election. Some states require formal
pledges enforced by fines and possible jail time. But historically speaking members rarely depart from the will of the people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Now to a developing story for you this hour. Chief Palestinian Negotiator said Erekat is fighting for his life, hospitalized with COVID-
19. The latest from hospital officials is that he is in critical condition and he is on a ventilator. He was admitted on Sunday but his condition
deteriorated early on Monday.
[11:15:00]
ANDERSON: We'll get the very latest for you from CNN's Oren Liebermann who is in Jerusalem. Do stay with us for that. And we'll be connecting with
Europe as it grapples with a surging second wave. Now it has got another problem new resistance to tighter restrictions taking a short break, back
after this.
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ANDERSON: Right now, Europe has got a bad case of pandemic fatigue. It is fueling resistance to COVID restrictions. Not just protesters rebelling,
some local governments are in intense negotiations with the central government over tighter rules from on high.
And that means the continent's second wave of confirmed cases is getting worse. Take a look at this, the EU in red as you can see heading higher and
higher, country after country across the continents, smashing daily records.
New infections, a hospital wondering how they will cope as winter looms. Well, Italy once the epicenter of Europe's first wave is now heading back
into dangerous territory. Again it is seeing a record daily rise in the number of COVID-19 cases. CNN's Ben Wedeman tells us why this second wave
is different?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Italy is well into the second wave of Coronavirus. Though it's not immediately apparent in Naples
the Capital of Campania region which has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases in country, Infectious Disease Specialist Alessandro
Parrella says it's not just about the numbers.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALESSANDRO PARRELLA, INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPECIALIST: We have an increasing number of positive people, positive. Not increasing number of patients.
It's very different.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WEDEMAN: What's different is that testing. Earlier this year only those showing COVID-like symptoms were tested. Now everyone can do it. The
majority of people who prove positive are asymptomatic isolating until recovery.
The number of people in intensive care now approximately a fifth of what it was before. Day after day Italy is reporting record increases in the number
of new Coronavirus case but at the same time Italy is testing like never before at this hospital here in Naples.
Seven days a week at least 1,000 tests are conducted quickly and for free. Five times as many tests are being conducted than at the height of the
first wave in March once an unwieldy process now routine.
How long was the wait? Half an hour says --. When will you receive the result I ask? The whole family did it. Tomorrow morning we'll get a message
with the results by phone he says. There's no air of panic but there is concern.
[11:20:00]
WEDEMAN: We're not worried says Valentina (ph) what worries us is not being able to work. The number of new cases is erupting in Italy and the peak of
this wave is far off. Better prepared this time, Italy is still bracing for a long hard winter. Ben Wedeman, CNN, Naples.
ANDERSON: A story that's sadly reflected across the continent, across the channel and a quote from a microbiologist and serving Conservative
Counselor in the UK who is speaking out against not having a clear mission for restriction, like the economy, the future course of this pandemic, will
be uncertain and will develop in ways that we cannot entirely predict.
While it's important to chase off the snake oil merchants, we must not forget that the real danger comes from the snake itself. Simon Clarke wrote
that commentary is joining us from Reading in England and thank you sir, by which you mean what?
SIMON CLARKE, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN CELLULAR MICROBIOLOGY, READING UNIVERSITY: I mean that in UK, at least, there's a lot of commentary at the
moment which presumes what's happening today where we are in the UK today will be where we are in weeks time, a month's time.
And we need to remember that there is a real danger behind this virus because part of this country is advanced, I think, with an agenda to do
nothing and some of that commentary suggests that really there's no risk it's all a bit blown out of proportion and that people really need not
worry their pretty little heads when that's not true.
ANDERSON: We can see over your article is the need for lockdowns. Where and will be determined by how the NHS is coping? That is the National Health
Service in UK. Is the NHS struggling again, sir?
CLARKE: It's beginning to struggle in parts of the country where at they have lots of viral infections particularly in Liverpool there are signs
that it may begin to strain in Manchester. The rest of the country not so much but, of course, we're in a much slower epidemic than we were in March.
So it's going to change in a much more, I hesitate to use the word leisurely but I can't get anything better. It's going to be slower like
Italy. And we know that the position in most of the country where the NHS is at risk yet. But that will change.
ANDERSON: So that suggests that you don't believe that a nationwide lockdown in the UK is necessary then, correct?
CLARKE: I'm not convinced there's a need for one yet. We may end up with a situation where nearly all of the country or all of the country has locked
down or circuit breaker whatever you want to call it that's another term being advanced by the government. But we're not at that position yet. To
inflict the societal and economic damage this far in advance of a need to do it is troublesome, in my opinion.
ANDERSON: I spoke to Hans Kluge who is the W.H.O.'s man on Europe. He clearly in the organization that is trying to provide sensible advice for
governments as they struggle with this huge dilemma, lockdown impact on the economy so stringent, don't lockdown, you don't stop this disease from
spreading. He says that nationwide lockdowns should be a last resort.
I guess that begs the question when is the last resort needed? When is the last resort - ready for it?
CLARKE: You're quite right. It's a political judgment. When the toll on health services is going to be so severe that they can't cope I would agree
with his analysis. We should not get into this situation in first place but, unfortunately, we have. And that's why lockdowns are probably needed.
I view lockdowns as a failure. I want to be clear about that.
ANDERSON: You say certainly the pandemic is where about collective responsibility and I'm pretty sure that our viewers around the world would
agree with you on that. You'll remember these pictures last call in Liverpool, youngsters everywhere, but with the kind of COVID fatigue that
we are seeing from people at the moment, people aren't abiding by the rules. How do we navigate this without a lockdown?
[11:25:00]
CLARKE: We have a distant society a less dense society where our social interactions are less frequent than they were before. This virus as I said
time and time again thrives on person to person contact and it is only by denying it that opportunity that we will be able to keep it at bay,
unfortunately. It's a bleak assessment, I think, but I can't think of any other way we're going to be able to do without a vaccine.
ANDERSON: You have also said that rising infection levels in the young are having a knock on impact in other age groups. Very briefly what's so
significant about that, sir?
CLARKE: Because in the UK there's an argument that it's not something we need to worry about because it's only in young people and young people
don't go the hospital. Well, they may not but they infect older people they could and they do.
ANDERSON: With that we'll leave it there. Thank you, sir, for joining us. CLARKE: Thank you. ANDERSON: Well, it is important to get the inside
analysis from people who know what they are talking about. Thank you. Still ahead new Coronavirus lockdown is in the pipeline for Wales with officials
dubbing it a circuit breaker.
You heard Simon talk about that type of restriction. The Welsh First Minister will be with me to explain why he thinks that's necessary. And as
Europe tightens restrictions Israel eases them. It seems the country's second nationwide lockdown has indeed paid off. We'll take you live to
Jerusalem.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: Lockdown or not to lockdown that's the question for many European leaders as the second wave of Coronavirus sweeps the continent countries,
all grappling with how far to go with their restrictions to get control of the outbreaks?
Well, across the water in Wales the answer to the lockdown conundrum is, yes, with caveats. Just hours ago the small nation on the western side of
the UK announced what it calls a firebreak lockdown. But how is that different from the earlier restrictions and indeed from the UK as a whole?
According to the Welsh First Minister, the difference certainly this time around is about being sharp and deep.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARK DRAKEFORD, FIRST MINISTER OF WALES: Between Friday the 23rd of October and the 9th of November everyone in Wales will be required to stay-at-home.
This means working from home wherever that is possible.
[11:30:00]
DRAKEFORD: And the only exceptions will be critical workers and jobs where working from home is simply the not possible.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Why? Well First Minister Mark Drakeford joins us from Cardiff to talk more about this new lockdown. Just, if you will, describe in a little
bit more detail what was just announced? What have you affected?
DRAKEFORD: Well, what we are introducing is a firebreak period of just over two weeks. The virus is spreading rapidly right across Wales. The velocity
of its spread is increasing. We are already in difficulties with the number of people in hospital beds or Coronavirus illness.
We're seeing that move into our critical care capacity. If we are not able to turn back the tide of Coronavirus, then the outlook of being able to
sustain our NHS and to save lives is very difficult. And on the advice of our Chief Medical Officer, our Chief Scientist and the people who look at
these things for us, a short firebreak in which we can turn the tide of the virus is the best way to make the impact on our public services manageable
between now and Christmas.
ANDERSON: Let me just play you some sound from a Cardiff resident. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, there's going to be massive disruption again and I think because the first lockdown people didn't really know what they were
in for. But I think we all know what it means this time around? Just to know much more people can take with not being with their families. So with
Christmas coming, how much more businesses can cope. These places just not going to survive another lockdown, I don't think.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: And you will have heard that message repeated again and again from the people of Wales. Given the disruption that this will cause to
their lives, what is your message to them?
DRAKEFORD: Well, first of all, that we share all the anxieties that you just heard in that clip. Everybody in Wales is fatigued by Coronavirus.
Everybody wishes that we could go back to the way things were before the virus began. And, of course, we are anxious about the stresses and strains
and the demands that we're making of people and of businesses.
But the choice is not between doing this and doing nothing. If we do nothing then our health service will be overwhelmed, and businesses will
not be able to function because the number of people suffering from the virus and needing to self-isolate will mean that businesses aren't able to
operate.
So we're making this choice because it is the one that's recommended to us as the most effective. If we act together and draw on the reservoir that's
still here in Wales, for people to act together and make the difference that we can make by acting in that collective way, then we will be giving
ourselves the best chance of avoiding something even worse and that's the ways that I have to make for people here in Wales.
ANDERSON: I spoke to the W.H.O.'s man for Europe, the Europe Regional Director Hans Kluge who told me that lockdowns should be last resort and
urged everyone to think of the negatives that come with them. Just have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HANS KLUGE, W.H.O. REGIONAL DIRECTOR FOR EUROPE: Number one, let's take the lessons into account mental health, domestic violence, inequalities, the
minor economic impact and to keep business to open for non-COVID diseases, this is the first one. And the second thing to take into account is by then
the time those two, three over weeks to use it to have a best track trace and isolate system.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Do you have a robust track trace and isolate system? It was one of the criteria that Hans Kluge said you must have in place if you're going
to lockdown in order to come out of this successfully?
DRAKEFORD: Well, I believe we have a very successful TTP system here in Wales. It continues to contact 90 percent or more of the cases and 90
percent or more of their contacts. But as the number of people suffering from Coronavirus rises and the number of contact people have increased, as
we have resumed more aspects of ordinary life.
[11:35:00]
DRAKEFORD: So that system has come under more pressure. It's still before me remarkably but we'll use the two weeks to recruit more people to it, to
simply find some of the systems within it, to deal with some of the backlog of cases that has built up while we're dealing with this very elevated
number of index cases and it will be in a better place still.
The other side of the firebreak but that's building on success in Wales. A very different system to the system we see elsewhere with very different
levels of contact and isolating people of the need to go into self- isolation.
ANDERSON: Sure. I do want to talk about the sort of disunited United Kingdom at present, as you point out that your system works differently
from elsewhere. You've said and I quote, the businesses affected by the lockdown will receive the necessary support but you've called on the
British government to make more funds available.
How much support will Welsh businesses need if you can put a figure on it for me that would be useful? And how much more do you need from the British
government?
DRAKEFORD: Well, we will put package together of 294 million pounds to support businesses during this two-week lockdown period. The extra support
that we need from the UK government is not money to come to the Welsh government but better levels of support for those people will not be able
to work during this two-week period, and who need their incomes to be sustained during it.
So the Chancellor has two different schemes. In Wales businesses will have to apply for one scheme up to the 30th of October, and then a new scheme
from the first of November. I asked the Chancellor to bring new scheme forward so businesses would only need to be able to apply once and to
increase the level of replacement of people's wages that he was able to provide.
He has replied to me on the first saying that he's not able to do that. That's a disappointment. And the call for a level of waived subsidies to be
raised is exactly the same call that is being made in greater Manchester and other parts of England.
ANDERSON: Look, the United Kingdom has been really disunited towards its response to all of this. You've said that we should work together more
collaboratively. Do you urge England, Scotland and Northern Ireland to do what you have done briefly?
DRAKEFORD: Well, Northern Ireland has already done it because they put themselves into this space at the beginning of last week. Scotland has
largely been in the central belt with the measures they've got in place there. The siege group advise the UK government four weeks ago now that a
short, sharp circuit breaker period was the most likely to be effective in turning back the virus.
I asked the prime minister for a COBRA meeting where we could look together at the device and I'm afraid that we haven't had one. I imagine, but it's
not for me, but it's too late to do this in England to incorporate the half turn week and we were very much focused on making sure another one or two
weeks we would incorporate half term here in Wales.
ANDERSON: Correct.
DRAKEFORD: Because I think you know very first remarks you asked what is the difference between this time and back in March and April and primarily
in Wales it's that we're giving the top priority to keeping schools open as much as we can.
ANDERSON: With that we'll leave it there, sir. We appreciate your time, it's really important that we understand why it is that you are
implementing the measures that you are, and governments across the UK and indeed across Europe facing very, very tough decisions, thank you sir.
Coming up next on "Connect the World," China on the road to recovery with an economy that's continually expanding throughout the pandemic but in the
Middle East, well the economy has been hit especially hard. We'll hear from one of the IMF's Directors on the next steps for oil producing countries
here.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:40:00]
ANDERSON: Governments everywhere are desperate to save their economies hoping to cushion the blow of this pandemic fuelled recession. Governments
across Europe expected to dig deep again, further expending their fiscal support packages as the continent's resurgence in COVID raises fears that
fourth quarter growth will be weaker than forecasts.
But it seems like China is already on the road to recovery. The world's second largest economy expanded by 4.9 percent last quarter compared to a
year ago. The government announced the latest statistics earlier but growth was weaker than expected as previous estimates but growth at more than 5
percent.
Let's bring in John Defterios who is here with me in Abu Dhabi. This is not the growth of yesteryear but considering the circumstances how would you
rate China's performance in the third quarter John?
JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN EMERGIN MARKETS EDITOR: Well Becky, I think it's an economy on the mend as you suggested jam in just below 5 percent which is
solid. You noted also as well that it's below expectations. But this very important for the world economy because of the growth of China overall, it
is going to be a $14 trillion economy by the close of 2020. As representing if you look at the pie chart here 17.5 of total GDP and if we dig into this
report a little bit deeper it does show production was just under 6 percent.
So that bodes well for future growth if it can hold. Consumers are on the mend with retail sales up nearly 1 percent. But travel is back up pre-COVID
levels at least domestically and we saw that during the Golden Week property investments highest in 1.35 years up 12 percent.
Now if there's an Achilles heel for China right now let's bring up this bar chart. It is what's happening in the United States and Europe right now.
We're looking at losses for the United States, the UK, the Euro Zone anywhere from 4 percent to 10 percent.
Now you notice in third quarter China recovered because the export growth to the United States and Europe was solid. As we see the second wave kick
into those two major trading blocs, you can see this will not really support China in the infuriate quarter and going into early 2021.
If you look at the numbers here China exports $2.5 trillion per year, one- third of that not too surprisingly goes to the U.S. and Europe. So it is still extremely dependent on those two blocs and also in solving the trade
dispute with the United States, their exports in 2019 went down 12 percent and we'll have to see what happens after the election for 2021 to see if
they can mend those relations? Even their imports from the United States were down 20 percent it is not good for either side, Becky.
ANDERSON: No, of course not John thank you. Here in the Middle East we're just learning that the region's economy expected to get even smaller than
previously predicted. In just the last few hours the International Monetary Fund released a report estimating that real GDP in the Middle East will
fall by 4.1 percent in 2020. That's a slice more than the fund estimated back in April.
Well, I spoke to Jihad Azour the Director of the International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia Department who says that COVID-19 crisis
has been especially devastating for oil producing nation. Have a listen to our conversation.
JIHAD AZOUR, DIRECTOR, IMF MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT: This crisis is like no other because it is a double whammy shock in addition to
the COVID-19 and its aftermath.
[11:45:00]
AZOUR: The decline in oil price and drop in oil demand hit the region that's dependent on oil. I would say the good news is that all of the
countries have reacted swiftly and took strict measures in order to adjust with the pandemic and limit fatality and cases compared to other parts of
the world is much less. However, this came with a toll on the economy.
ANDERSON: Your boss the Head of the IMF told me that governments need to spend, spend and spend their way through this pandemic. Are countries in
Middle East, in a position to do that, especially with oil prices at the loss that they are at the moment?
AZOUR: Well Becky, the countries of the region need to do three things. One is respond. Respond to the risk of a second wave by increasing their level
of testing, the level of tracing and treatment. They need to also respond and to repair as the economy because there are risks of economic scarring
especially for sectors that were highly hit and economies that dependent on oil on one hand and others that are dependent on remedies.
And also they need to look to recovery because those economies need to regain the level of growth that's needed to predict the level of jobs that
needed for the larger population and also for some to adjust their sustainability in terms of controlling the debt.
Of course countries have different level of offers and each country has a different situation. Some have used fiscal, others have used fiscal and
monetary like for example Bahrain or UAE and some also have provided wider range of protections.
ANDERSON: What's the forecast going forward, sir?
AZOUR: There are certain moments, forecast are very difficult. I think the important issue today is to transform this crisis into an opportunity, to
lean towards sanctioning a recovery. It's a new global economy that we need to prepare for. This is exciting but also this is challenging at the same
time.
ANDERSON: It will be a tough road ahead, not the least for a country like Lebanon. Kristalina Georgieva the Head of the IMF was pretty blunt when I
spoke to her about Lebanon recently, just saying it is sad what is happening there but in terms of help she told me it takes two to tango and
that the IMF needs a reliable partner in government.
Now, Jihad I know this cut close to home for you. Back in July 2019 the IMF was negotiating with a government led by Saad Hariri, is he the reliable
partner that the IMF is now looking for?
AZOUR: I find he is committed to help Lebanon a country that's going through crisis like no other currently. What Lebanon needs, Lebanon needs a
program, a government where the comprehensive program of response where ambitious timeline in terms of implementing those reforms.
And this program has to tackle four or I would say five priorities. One is to restore confidence, this is an utmost important especially after
succession of issues that Lebanon has had. Second is to regain stability, stability in terms of public finances sustainability in the macro.
Tackle the issue of the hyperinflation; tackle the issue of high level of fiscal deficit. Three is to prepare the financial sector that was hit hard
with this crisis. Fourth, which is really important is how to restore growth in order to create jobs, a country that has all this potential all
this qualified labor force need to have growth in order to provide jobs for the young.
ANDERSON: Let's just cut to the quick, sir, here with respect. Who is that reliable partner that the IMF wants to work with at this point? AZOUR: It
is the decision of the Lebanese on who would represent them. But I think what's important for us, what's important for Lebanon is to move very
quickly in a comprehensive reform program.
ANDERSON: We hope that there's a reliable partner at some point very soon because the country needs your help. Economics is called the dismal
science, sir, for a reason. The Arab youth survey showed that some half of young people in this region when asked want to leave their own countries,
many of them permanently.
[11:50:00]
ANDERSON: I know that you've called for a new social contract here in Middle East. Exactly how do you see that playing out?
AZOUR: Well, it's the priority of the next decade. We need to create opportunities for the Arab youth in order to transform very low growth
economies into fast growing economies. We have the chance in region to have a majority of the population to be well educated. Those need to be
opportunities.
And without the countries of the region will not be able to grow fast. I'm calling for a new social contract that will put the future of the region in
the hand of the future generation address some of the long-lasting issues but also build on what the region has shown over the last few months, the
capacity to do. I think we've had some silver linings that could pave the way for what could be a decade of fast recovery.
ANDERSON: That's the IMF speaking to us here on CNN. Well, a CNN alert to bring you now. We've learned that a top U.S. official recently met with the
Assad Regime in an attempt to free Americans who are presumably being held prisoners in Syria.
Two administration officials have confirmed that a top counterterrorism official traveled to Damascus with the support of President Trump. The U.S.
has not had diplomatic ties with the regime since 2012. Mr. Trump wrote a letter to the President Bashar Al Assad earlier this year offering direct
dialogue over one of the prisoners who is an American Journalist.
Up next, the PLO's Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat is fighting for his life against COVID-19. The latest on his condition is just ahead.
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ANDERSON: Israel and Bahrain have officially signed a deal normalizing ties between their two countries. Some have called the U.S. brokered Abraham
Accords a game changer. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was on hand as Bahrain became the latest Gulf States to agree to full diplomatic
relations with Israel after United Arab Emirates did the same in September.
And more Middle East history was made just hours ago in the first commercial passenger flight from the UAE landed in Israel. Etihad says it
looks forward to many more flights ahead. Well, the Chief negotiator for the Palestine Liberation Organization Saeb Erekat is in a critical
condition, a high-risk patient struggling with COVID-19. He was admitted to the hospital in Jerusalem on Sunday and was stable but hospital officials
say his condition deteriorated in the last several hours. Let's get you straight to our Oren Liebermann with the very latest. Oren?
OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, as of right now PLO Chief Negotiator and Secretary General Saeb Erekat is suffering from acute
pneumonia according to the Palestinian Minster of Health. As you pointed out he is in critical condition at this time.
He's being cared for not only by the doctors at Hadassah Ein Kerem but they're consulting with an international medical team to try to get him the
best possible medical care especially because he's in this critical condition that according to the hospital as well as Erekat's family
members.
[11:55:00]
LIEBERMANN: He was taken to the hospital yesterday in serious but stable condition from his home in Jericho according to the hospital and according
to his family members. He remained in serious but stable condition overnight but then this morning his condition deteriorated, he was put on a
ventilator and he was put under general anesthesia.
And it in that critical condition he remains at this later hour this evening. We know that 2.5 weeks ago or I'm sorry about a week and a half
ago according to his department the Negotiations Affairs Department Erekat tested positive for Coronavirus and it is then that he was taken to a - for
medical treatment.
He returned to his home in Jericho to recover and then in the last 48 or 72 hours he was taken just yesterday to a hospital in Jerusalem where he's
being treated right now. Again Becky, he remains at this point in critical condition.
ANDERSON: Yes, and we obviously wish him the absolute best. Lockdowns are easing in Israel. You lived through this period of time. What's it like
Oren? Was it worth it in the end?
LIEBERMANN: Well there certainly nothing enjoyable about the lockdown here for anybody and although I haven't talked to anybody. It's a fairly
universal statement here. You saw active defiance against it. Crucially what you saw here was more people abiding by the restrictions and lockdown
even though they were incredibly difficult to understand at times.
And at least if you look at the numbers the lockdown worked. From a high of 9,000 cases a day a few weeks ago to just 892 cases yesterday according to
the Ministry of Health. The Israeli Ministry of Health of course said as well as a reduction in the positivity rate from well over 10 percent to in
the low to mid-single digits over the course of the last few days in the rate of positive tests.
But what's worrying here is that there are still people flouting rules. Not all of them have been lifted at this point. There are still red cities with
high infection rates. And crucially the numbers right now compared to the numbers when Israel came out of its first general lockdown in April or May,
the numbers now are much worse when compared to those numbers and that's a chief concern here.
Are they simply too high at this point even if a dramatic improvement to ease the restrictions and that's a number we'll know the answer to within a
couple of weeks. We're going to see how the numbers change?
ANDERSON: So briefly what has the government said at this point about further restriction should these numbers not be kept low enough?
LIEBERMANN: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that look if the numbers go back up restriction could be put back in place. He has said that
this easing of restrictions will to be done more slowly and more carefully and with more safe guards something he tastily acknowledges didn't happened
the first time Israel came out of lockdown.
Will it work? Again, we'll know in a couple of week when we see reflection of what's happening today in the community with Coronavirus.
ANDERSON: Oren Liebermann is in Jerusalem for you. Once again, it was Hangs Kluge who I was speaking to who is the W.H.O.'s man in Europe who said
lockdowns should be a last resort. If you are going circuit break which are these small short sharp lockdowns then ensure you have a track trace and
isolate system in place.
That's a conversation that we've been having with a number of our guests across the last couple of hours because it's a big dilemma for these
governments across Europe and the UK as you've seen in Israel and indeed in the United States.
The dilemma is what do governments do when these numbers start ticking up at a rate of which they are ticking up to ensure that people are safe but
these economies aren't completely sunk? We'll keep across the latest developments for you on all of this and of course on Saeb Erekat's
condition for you right here on CNN.
For now, it is a very good evening from the team here in Abu Dhabi and those working around the world. Good evening.
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