Return to Transcripts main page
Connect the World
Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated in Tehran; Interview with Lebanese Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib on Middle East Turmoil; Blinken Continues Diplomatic Cleanup Efforts to Keep Gaza Talks on Track; Oil Prices Jump on Fears of All-Out War in Middle East. Aired 10-11a ET
Aired July 31, 2024 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[10:00:00]
(MUSIC PLAYING)
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): Welcome to our second hour of CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Becky Anderson in London; normally based, of course,
in Abu Dhabi. And we start with all eyes on the Middle East as the assassination of the Hamas political leader pushes this region potentially
into a new, unprecedented phase.
Hamas says Ismail Haniyeh, seen here, was killed in a, quote, "Zionist" strike on Iranian soil on Wednesday after attending the inauguration of
Iran's new president.
In the wake of the killing, Iran's mission to the United Nations posted, quote, "The response to an assassination will indeed be special operations
-- harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator."
That after Iran's supreme leader says he sees it as his country's duty to avenge the killing. And that was pointedly a statement directed at Israel
who have not claimed responsibility for the assassination of the Hamas political leader.
Speaking a short time ago, U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken said he would not speculate on the impact of the assassination but said the U.S.
was, quote, "not aware of or involved" in the incident.
CNN's Jomana Karadsheh has covered this region extensively and knows more about the region than most people will ever know, joins me now.
What do you make of what we have been reporting in the past hours and over the past, what, 25 hours with the assassination, of course, of a senior
Hezbollah leader in Beirut?
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I mean, Becky, it will be an understatement to say that there is concern across this region about where
this is all headed right now.
There is fear. You are hearing it coming from governments across the region as well as so many people in the Middle East, who are very worried about
where this is all going.
And as you mentioned, this is not just obviously the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh I'm Tehran. It is 24 hours that the region has not seen
anything like this before with that strike in Beirut, targeting the Hezbollah leader. And that has really pushed the region right now into even
more dangerous territory.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KARADSHEH (voice-over): These some of the last images of Ismail Haniyeh before he was assassinated in the Iranian capital. He appeared defiant.
Here at the country's parliament. Among those invited to attend the new presidents inauguration.
Just hours before what appears to be Israel delivering on its promise its to target Hamas leaders wherever they may be.
The news of his assassination broke on Iranian state TV in the early hours Wednesday. Tehran says he was assassinated at around 2:00 am local time by
a, quote, "airborne guided projectile" that hit a residence for veterans in northern Tehran, where he was staying.
Israel, that's carried out assassinations and attacks inside Iran in the past, has not claimed responsibility. On the Hamas' military leadership
that has gone underground since October 7, the political leader of the group has been its public face, living in Doha, traveling relatively freely
and central to ceasefire and hostage negotiations.
His killing, at least for now, dampens hopes for a deal anytime soon. Qatar, that's facilitated these negotiations, condemned the killing.
Its prime minister posting on X, quote, "How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?"
The timing, the target and this happening in Tehran has pushed a region that has been teetering on the edge even closer to all out war. Haniyeh's
assassination comes less than 24 hours after Israel says it killed a top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs.
FIRAS MAKSAD, SENIOR FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: I would think there's a great possibility that this will see an orchestrated region-wide
campaign.
[10:05:00]
That brings the various Iranian sponsored militias from Iraq, from Yemen, from Lebanon and maybe even Tehran itself in a direct response on Israel.
But I feel like we're actually a notch closer to a region wide conflict today than we've ever been.
KARADSHEH: The assassination on Iranian soil seen as a provocation and an embarrassment for a regime that is now vowing to respond. Iran's supreme
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a statement, saying, avenging Haniyeh's killing is Tehran's duty, threats that once again leave the world bracing
for what that may be -- Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Jomana with me now.
I mean, there will be those watching what is going on in the region at present and saying that there has been a real failure of intelligence on
the part of the Iranians, not able to protect their guest, as it were, the Hamas political leader.
It was Hezbollah security architecture that failed in Beirut to protect one of its senior leaders, not actually admitting to his death at present. And
we'll talk to the Lebanese acting foreign minister in a moment, to find out whether we can actually stand that up.
But this failure of intelligence may play into how Iran may and its proxies may respond or retaliate at this point. Just explain.
KARADSHEH: I mean, it's extremely embarrassing, especially for the Iranians, this taking place in Tehran. And you have had the supreme leader
saying a guest of the Iranians being killed, assassinated on Iranian soil, vowing to respond.
They're going to have to do something, Becky. They are going to have to respond in some way.
What is that response?
What is it going to look like?
Is it going to involve its proxies, something that has put this region on edge, yet again?
As we wait to see what happens.
ANDERSON: Jomana Karadsheh joining me in the studio, good to have you. Thank you very much. Indeed.
Let's get a political insider's perspective then from Lebanon on all of this, the Lebanese caretaker foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, joining
us from Beirut.
And sir, we will talk about the strike in Beirut and your concerns about what happens next in your own country as we look to the potential for a
regional escalation.
Before we do that, what is Lebanon's view of the assassination of the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, in Iran?
ABDALLAH BOU HABIB, LEBANESE CARETAKER FOREIGN MINISTER: Well, we are afraid that what happened yesterday in Beirut, the killing of a very high
military Hezbollah person and in Tehran Khamenei and ambassador in Birdat (ph) also. This is very dangerous.
This says goodbye to the Biden plan or Biden proposal and the U.N. Security Council resolution on peace, a ceasefire in Gaza.
And what's happening is that, you know, the wave of horror is coming rather than peace coming to the region. I think what happened yesterday was a very
bad day for peace in the region.
ANDERSON: You just talked about the death of one of Hezbollah's senior leaders. Hezbollah itself has not confirmed the death of Fuad.
So can you actually confirm his death?
HABIB: I cannot confirm but they think he is under the rubbish -- rubbles because the building, you know, there were cement falling and they probably
could not-- cannot find it, find very well.
That's what they're afraid of because he's nowhere to be found so far.
ANDERSON: This is Fuad Shukr of course.
At the weekend you spoke to my colleague, Ben Wedeman. This was just after the strike in the Golan Heights, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which
killed 12 children and wounded so many more.
And you said, when you spoke to Ben, and I quote, you here, that Lebanon had received, quote, "assurances" from unnamed international actors that
Israel's anticipated strike would be limited, falling short of triggering a wider war.
Do you believe that that strike on Beirut was that limited attack?
And given what we've seen now in Tehran, you do seem to be very concerned about a wider regional war.
Do you worry very specifically for Lebanon at this point?
[10:10:00]
HABIB: It was only in Lebanon to have win limited. But having gone to Tehran and Baghdad or Babil (ph), wherever it is in Iraq, this makes it
very reasonable.
And they think, if, you know, you would think -- this is not information.
But you would think that they are coordinating with each other to see what is the best response. So I don't think they have a response far-- so far
and we are trying in the government to reduce to have these reaction also don't lead to a war, a regional war.
But we are afraid, we are worried that a regional war would really destroyed a lot, a lot in Lebanon but also in Israel. It's not going to be
safe if there is a regional war.
ANDERSON: Acting Caretaker Foreign Minister, I do want to push you on one point.
You said you'd received assurances from unnamed international actors that Israel's retaliatory strike on Hezbollah would be limited. You say, we saw
what appears to have been a limited strike, taking out the Hezbollah senior leader.
Can you just explain a little further about who it is that you are talking to?
We are trying to piece together at present what the U.S. and others may know, may have known about these strikes ahead of time and how U.S. and
other leadership may or may not help the situation going forward.
What's your sense?
Who are you speaking to and do you feel assured by, for example, U.S. leadership at present?
HABIB: Well, U.S. leadership did not say much accept that we don't want regional war now but there hasn't been any movement toward that, toward
working on that. I think waiting for the response of those who were hit yesterday night.
So, no, I can't give the sources. But I'm saying if it was limited only to Iran, it will be maintained. But to have it all the way spread to Iraq and
to Iran, this is the problem. This makes the Beirut problem, Beirut-Tehran and by that this is very dangerous situation.
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: You are talking about -- yes.
You're talking here about the potential for retaliation, not just by Iran directly but by its proxies in Iraq; in, for example, Yemen, the Houthis
and Hezbollah, of course, in Lebanon.
There is an argument that suggests that all of those proxy groups may feel slightly vulnerable today, given that Iran has not been able to secure its
guest in Tehran, that being Ismail Haniyeh.
What do you make of the failure of intelligence and security apparatus by Iran in the past hours?
HABIB: Well, I'm not going to analyze whether It is a failure. And I'm sure that Iran is thinking what to do, how to react, whether to retaliate
or not. It is -- it is a very strong action against Iran.
That's what makes it what were the province on Lebanon that it will not lead to regional war. It is a regional war. Israel really committed the
regional war. It is Iraq that took the opportunity of a not a Hezbollah missile falling in the Majdal Shams in Golan.
But we are where we are not sure yet, that Israel there and they targeted - -
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: Right.
HABIB: -- that they and usual -- usually Hezbollah is not target even Israelis civilians. So anyway but to have it all around like this, it means
Israel does not want the ceasefire. It's squeezed by the ceasefire. And very strong ministers in Mr. Netanyahu's cabinet that do not want the
ceasefire.
And therefore, this is a good reason not to have ceasefire. Now you have Hamas without political leadership. He had all the files for the ceasefire
and the peace but whatever peace process there's going to be. Now they have to find somebody who would get it.
It's going to take some time probably waiting for U.S. (INAUDIBLE).
ANDERSON: So I do want to ask you, given that you've just bought up Riyadh and the potential peace plan, Arab-backed peace plan.
[10:15:00]
What is your message to Gulf capitals at this point?
Many will say we are seeing a vacuum or failure of U.S. leadership, whether that's because they have exhausted their leverage over this very specific
government and prime minister.
What's your message to the region and to those that you must believe still can help effect a deescalation at this point?
HABIB: Well, at Israeli U.S. the most important player here for peace if it works for peace quickly. And they should be able to calm this situation
with everybody and go back to the peace process and however the ceasefire in Gaza.
And if they don't do that -- and they didn't show any sign today of doing that -- then I don't know. I think I'm afraid that the region is going for
a bigger, bigger war than what you see today.
ANDERSON: It's good to have you on today, sir. Thank you for making the time. Clearly very worrying times. And giving us your time is important at
this point. Thank you.
Well, that is the acting caretaker foreign minister for Lebanon.
After the break, we'll get the viewpoint of this death on the ground from not just Lebanon but from Israel as well. And we'll get the viewpoint of a
woman whose elderly parents were taken by Hamas on October 7th, one of them still in captivity in Gaza.
What does the past 24 hours or so mean?
What does the impact or what is the impact for those hostages still held?
That after this.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
The breaking news that we are following this hour, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital, Tehran, overnight local
time. Hamas are claiming that he was killed in an Israeli strike. The Israeli military has not responded to the reports.
Haniyeh had been a key part of the negotiations for a ceasefire and a hostage release. We are across the region on this. Ivan Watson is in
Beirut. Jeremy Diamond is in Haifa.
Jeremy, lets start with you.
What has, if anything, Israel said about this assassination in Tehran?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, we have certainly heard some jubilation, some celebrations from even Israeli government officials,
members of the Israeli parliament, for example.
But no actual official confirmation of Israel's role, Israel's responsibility for this political assassination. But there is very little
question that Israel is indeed responsible for it.
[10:20:03]
Because it does fit with a trademark of Israel. We know that they have carried out assassinations on Iranian soil in the past. And in this case,
we are hearing from Iranian officials as well as from Hamas, saying that Ismail Haniyeh was killed overnight while he was in the Iranian capital.
Iranian state media saying that there was an airborne guided projectile that was fired at the home in which he was staying in the capital city of
Iran. And, of course, now there are going to be major, major implications for this region as a result of that assassination.
We don't know exactly how or whether Iran will respond to this, how or whether Hamas or Hezbollah will respond to this. But we know that it is
just the latest incidents in just the last 24 hours that could potentially tip this region into that all-out war that has been feared for so long.
In part because we also know that a Hezbollah commander was taken out last night in a separate Israeli strike. This one the Israeli military quickly
coming out and taking responsibility for.
Now as far as Ismail Haniyeh, it's not just the questions about regional escalation but also about those ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations.
And that's because not only was Ismail Haniyeh Hamas' political leader, the face of the group abroad, but he was also one of the key negotiators for
months now.
And a pragmatic voice at that in those talks. Certainly within Hamas, he was viewed as one who was more willing to make concessions, more willing to
get to a ceasefire agreement. And now of course, he is completely out of the picture.
That will certainly send a chill for those negotiations, at least in the short term.
The question is, medium-term, long-term, can those ceasefire negotiations be revived?
Of course, all of that will be out of the question if this conflict escalates into all-out war, in particular, along Israel's northern border,
Becky.
Ivan, I've just been speaking to the acting foreign minister for Lebanon. I mean, clearly underscoring that nobody there wants a regional war. I mean,
25 hours or so ago the targeted assassination of a Hezbollah senior leader worried Lebanon enormously. And now this.
What's the atmosphere there?
I mean, we've seen no response to date from Hezbollah. We know that they have enormous capacity, should they respond, as our colleague has just been
pointing out, that northern front for Israel exposed at this point.
What's the sense from your perspective?
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Very immense concern here and worry that a bigger war could happen right now.
This is a country that has a tremendous amount to lose, that has been through hardships, an enormous economic crisis, a massive explosion in the
port here. People still remember the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, which left much of southern Lebanon in ruins.
And it's also full of members of the Lebanese diaspora right now who are on vacation. And there's, of course, outrage as well, that, in the strike that
took place here around sunset Tuesday evening, just last night, in the crowded and densely populated southern suburb of Dahiyeh, that Israel said
was targeting this senior Hezbollah official, Fuad Shukr.
It also killed civilians. They are, among them, 10-year-old Hassan Fadlallah, his 6-year-old sister, Amira Fadlallah; their older brother Ali
(ph) was also wounded and is in hospital. Two other women killed.
Let's listen to the uncle of these slain children, what he had to say about the aftermath of that strike.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I called my mother, who told me that my sister, her children and her husband were under the rubble. I left
work, got my family and left to Beirut. As soon as I arrived to Beirut, I was told they were first looking for the children.
Then we were told that they were martyred.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WATSON: There had been messages leading up to Israel's strike that Israel didn't want to escalate and didn't want a bigger war. The caretaker foreign
minister that you just interviewed had suggested he'd been passed along messages to that effect from governments, presumably the U.S. or France.
But with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, everything seems to be up in the air right now.
Certainly with every senior official in Iran and institution there, now calling for revenge.
Among them, the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York, which published this tweet, quote, "The response to an assassination will indeed
be special operations, harder and intended to instill so deep regret in the perpetrator."
[10:25:02]
So right now, Becky, the question is, how will Iran and its militia proxies and allies across the region, how could they respond to these to
assassinations that took place just within hours of each other here in Beirut and in Tehran?
ANDERSON: Good to have you, Ivan, thank you.
And to Jeremy in Haifa, appreciate it.
With the assassination of Haniyeh then into Tehran overnight Iranian time, the future of negotiations over a ceasefire and hostage release, of course,
being cast into doubt. Families of hostages taken on October 7th, released a statement, calling for the Israeli government to continue the talks.
They write in part, and I quote, "Time is of the essence and we implore the Israeli government and global leaders to decisively advance negotiations.
This is the time for a deal.
"Securing the hostages' release is not just a moral imperative; it is the key for ending the current conflict and initiating a process of healing and
reconstruction in the region."
Well, let me bring in now Sharone Lifschitz. Her parents were taken from the kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7th. Her mother was released after 16 days.
Her father remains in Hamas captivity in Gaza -- or at least in Gaza.
Sharone, I'm not sure whether you know whether that is in Hamas captivity at this point. There are a number of other groups, of course, as well. This
news, though -- yes.
And I appreciate your time and I know this news will have been difficult for you to take on overnight, the expected impact on the negotiations
important here.
Qatar's prime minister has said, quote, "How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?"
Just tell me what are your thoughts on how this will impact the hostages' release.
SHARONE LIFSCHITZ, DAUGHTER OF ISRAELI HOSTAGE ODED LIFSHITZ: You know, I'm not a political analyst. I'm a citizen who was caught in this
horrendous situation, almost 300 days ago tomorrow.
And since then, over our head, people who have political interests, who have a survival interest, who have continuously failed to bring our loved
ones back home and reach a deal, my feeling is I have no sympathy for Haniyeh.
He was dancing on the 7th of October but I have huge sympathy for all the people, for all the hostages and their families and people caught in this
nightmare, innocent civilians.
And we -- it's hard to see how it will advance a deal. We had several rounds in which we were told that a bit more pressure will reach a deal.
And if that is so, then Israel is now absolutely ready. It's done its thing and it now must reach a deal.
I think the timeline for reaching a deal is now. And if not, it might be delayed by much more and we would lose much more.
ANDERSON: Sharone, Benjamin Netanyahu insists that the hostages are a high priority. He has insisted from the outset that the return of the hostages
and the decimation of Hamas are the two key goals here.
Do you believe that he has the hostages as high a priority as you believe he should?
LIFSCHITZ: I have little faith in the prime minister of Israel. I have seen him again and again doing the same thing that Hamas is doing and
delaying negotiation. When there was the first deal, they stopped it when they could have continued it and rescue many more people.
We talk to many people that are close to negotiation and it seems very clear that the prime minister of Israel top priority isn't the return of
the hostages.
ANDERSON: What is it?
LIFSCHITZ: Political survival. The same as -- the same as Hamas, political survival. We have lost so many hostages. We, you know, when I wake up this
morning, I hear that Haniyeh was murdered. And I do not see maybe it would help but then other assassination and other pressure put on Hamas and
Sinwar should have brought a deal.
[10:30:03]
And so at one point you need to capitalize on the military gains you told us we need in order to reach a deal and make the deal. And at this point,
it doesn't seem I trust on this Qatar just now, saying that it doesn't help killing the -- Haniyeh.
But I don't know. I have no sympathy for Haniyeh whatsoever. I have no sympathy for Hamas, who has brought their own people to this situation. I
have no -- I have huge sympathy for us, for the hostages that have been there for 300 days now.
They're civilians, they're elderly. My father is elderly. I don't know anymore what to think about it. You know, I -- we have been told all these
things. We know one thing: we -- our loved ones are not here. We're not hugging them. We're not burying the dead. We are not seeing a return of
some sanity to the region.
And it's hard to sit here and imagine how they must be feeling in Gaza when they see this.
ANDERSON: And I know your parents have long been peace activists themselves.
Let me just read to you -- and I know that you're not a political animal. I know that you've said clearly your focus is on your family and others in
getting these hostages back. But I do just want to read you what has just come in to CNN.
The British foreign minister, David Lammy, and the Defence Secretary, the new Defence Secretary, they've just arrived in Doha to meet Qatari
officials, to push for an end to this war. I just want to quote a statement from the British foreign minister.
He says, and I quote him here, "It is absolutely vital that we engage closely with partners like Qatar, who played a key role in mediating the
conflict in Gaza, so that we can bring this devastating war to an end.
"Deescalation must be our primary focus as the region stands at a crossroads. The loss of innocent life in recent weeks and months is
unbearable. This has to end," says the Defence Minister.
And we've heard that echoed by the U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, today, who has very specifically talked about at the importance of these
ceasefire and hostage talks.
You are saying, at this point, given what we have seen overnight, that you hold out little faith that those talks can make any progress at this point.
Is that what you're saying?
LIFSCHITZ: No.
I'm saying that there is an opportunity here, that the window of opportunity is fast closing, that the opportunity will not always be here,
both because all the hostages will finally not survive if we don't do it. And we know already of many hostages that died over the time, were
murdered, died from Israeli bombing, et cetera, et cetera.
And because at one point, things will move on and this deal will be -- will not be able to materialize. There is a deal on the table. The Israeli
government and Hamas must accept it now.
They must accept it so that we can start getting some sanity to the area, so that we can work toward long-term security agreement that will benefit
all the people of this area.
I believe that the British and the American must come in all out and make sure that this deal gets signed. They cannot let a people that have other
political interests, such as Sinwar, such as Netanyahu, run them down to the ground again and again on several moves, all sorts of excuses. This
must now be the time to reach a deal.
ANDERSON: We extend our greatest support to you and your family. Thank you very much indeed for taking the time today.
LIFSCHITZ: Thank you.
ANDERSON: Well, coming up, Iran says the United States bears responsibility for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. We will speak to an
expert in Tehran about what Iran could or might do next.
And later this hour, we'll take a close look at Ismail Haniyeh's background and why he was such an important leader for Hamas. More on that is coming
up.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:35:00]
(MUSIC PLAYING)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.
ANDERSON: And welcome back.
You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson out of London today, normally broadcasting to you, of course, from Abu Dhabi in the UAE.
Some fresh news just coming in to CNN. A Hamas spokesperson says that Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a rocket in the room
where he was sleeping in northern Tehran.
Hamas deputy head Khalil al-Hayya made the comments in a news conference in Tehran a short time ago.
He says Israel would, and I quote him here, "pay the price for the heinous crime" of assassinating Haniyeh. Israel, of course, is not commenting on
this, neither denying nor confirming that it was behind the attack.
Reaction though, is pouring in from across the Middle East and beyond to what is the apparent assassination of the political the leader of Hamas,
Ismail Haniyeh, today. Both Jordan and Qatar called his death a heinous crime.
Turkiye described the killing as despicable.
Those countries, along with Egypt, Russia and China, are warning the assassination could push the region into an all-out war.
Well, speaking from Singapore, U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken said that Washington was not aware of or involved in Haniyeh's death and
wouldn't speculate on the impact.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: Nothing takes away from the importance of, as I said a moment ago, getting to the ceasefire, which is
manifestly in the interest of the hostages and bringing them home.
It's manifestly in the interests of Palestinians, who are suffering terribly every single day.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Joining me now is CNN's international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, who is today in Washington.
You just heard Antony Blinken's sort of short statement there.
What can we glean from that about any U.S. leadership in all of this at this point and what sort of impact the last 25 hours or so, very
specifically the assassination of the Hamas leader, might have on the potential for ceasefire and hostage talks going forward?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: The United States is very clearly trying to make sure that they're not implicated in this. And I find
that very interesting, given the sources.
I was speaking to over the weekend following prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United States here and speaking in Congress. That
for him was a major success in the region.
[10:40:02]
They were trying to analyze, what's the United States position vis-a-vis Netanyahu?
How much support does he have?
How far does that support go?
Since Netanyahu got back to the region, you've seen the strike, killing a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, which might, months ago, have looked
like a red line. You've seen as well now the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, inside of, inside of Tehran.
And according to a source in the region, who's very well plugged in to the talks that -- the hostage and ceasefire talks that have been going on, he
sees a situation right now as leading to a major escalation.
However, not an immediate ratchet up but definitely an increase of the temperature of the situation, if you will.
But this is all on track to a major escalation and from his perspective, from the conversations he's had with his interlocutors, the ceasefire talks
for now are dead in the water. They're not happening. No negotiations over hostages.
Now that may -- situation may hold for a couple of months. And for the new Iranian president, who had been considered a moderate now, to consider his
options. But the language is already, not surprisingly, sounding very tough. Haniyeh in Tehran for his inauguration.
It -- the perspective that is being set or will appear in the region -- and we're certainly hearing comments to this effect -- is that prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu is really acting with an imprimatur of the United States.
Of course, that's not the case and that's what secretary of state Antony Blinken has been at pains to make very, very clear. And secretary of state
(sic) Lloyd Austin has also made very clear that, if Israel is attacked, then the United States will defend it.
The situation is escalating. That is very, very clear. But perhaps not coming to an extreme escalation in the coming days; undoubtedly, though,
getting much worse.
ANDERSON: Nic Robertson, talking to his sources in Washington, good to have you, our international diplomatic editor.
Right.
I'm going to take a very short break at this point. We will though, be back straight after this. Stay with us.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
ANDERSON: Welcome back. You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD.
I'm Becky Anderson.
The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil is rocking the Middle East this hour. He was a critical part of her Hamas
for decades. In recent years, he ran the militant group's political operations from exile in Doha and emerged as one of its most visible
leaders during the war with Israel in Gaza.
[10:45:02]
The 62-year old was born in a Gaza refugee camp. He joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada. He then rose through the ranks,
becoming the group's political chief in 2017 and soon after was named by the U.S. as, quote, "a specially designated global terrorist."
I want to bring in Mohammad Ali Shabani for his perspective on the assassination and Ismail Haniyeh's legacy. He's a Middle East scholar and
the editor of Amwaj.media platform, focusing on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.
It's good to have you with us today.
Who was Ismail Haniyeh and why was he in Iran?
MOHAMMAD ALI SHABANI, EDITOR, AMWAJ.MEDIA: So he's been based between Doha and Istanbul in the past few years and even the Gaza Strip. He's a regular
visitor, Iran. Prior to his current visit, which was about inauguration of Iran's new reform (ph) as president, he was in Tehran in May for the
funeral of the prior president, Ebrahim Raisi.
So he's a common face in Tehran. He is a major ally as, a political bureau chief of Hamas moment (ph), part of the axis of resistance, as Iran is
called.
ANDERSON: And described by the supreme leader today as a guest, a statement directed very specifically at Israel. The supreme leader said you
have killed a guest in our country. There will be retaliation for this. Iran was not able to protect Mr. Haniyeh, an act that many people has made
Iran look very vulnerable today.
SHABANI: Absolutely. I think that's part of the purpose of the operation. The Iranian security services have in the past, failed to protect their
own officials, high ranking officials, including nuclear scientists, et cetera.
I think yesterday or last night the Iranian security services were very stretched. The IRGC put out a statement, saying that 110 foreign
delegations were visiting the country for the inauguration. So that could have played a role potentially in what we have heard, which is that Haniyeh
used to stay at Hamas office in Tehran.
But this time, apparently -- this is unconfirmed -- he was staying in a Iranian presidential complex, which would provide an added layer of
security -- which obviously didn't work.
ANDERSON: The statement from inside Iran today suggests that he was killed by a rocket, which entered the bedroom that he was in.
When you consider the sort of the split screen, as it were, the Hezbollah senior leader killed in Beirut just some 24 hours before that and
significant damage and other deaths associated with that assassination.
This seems, I mean, targeted to the nth degree, a rocket in the bedroom of a room in a house that could well be Revolutionary Guard does seem an
enormous penetration of security.
SHABANI: The Israelis have made clear in recent years and, again, in multiple operations -- in 2020, November 2020, prior to Biden taking office
and after, having defeated Trump in U.S. presidential election that year, they killed the top scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of the top nuclear
officials in Iran, the most protected at the time.
What was called an AI weapon, a machine gun, apparently, that self- destructed after being used, remotely controlled. So this time, some of the speculations about what caused Haniyeh's death, there was some talk about
quadcopters being used, some kind of long-range missile.
And then this rocket that you're talking about, that could be connected to what was used during Fakhrizadeh's assassination.
But ultimately what's the goal of this assassination?
I think that's the bigger question, rather than how he was killed. I think the goal here really is about sabotaging two parallel negotiation
processes. One is about the ceasefire in Gaza. Second, connected to that, is that Iran-West dialogue, which many were expecting with, Pezeshkian
taking office.
This assassination in Tehran took place on the day of Pezeshkian's inauguration. They could have picked any other date, right?
Because someone like Haniyeh comes and goes to Iran quite a lot.
Why did they pick that date?
Why did they pick that location?
I think those are key questions that we need to answer. And when you look at the possible answers, I think to me what stands out is there is no
interest in dialogue on the part of Netanyahu for very obvious reasons.
Number one is that any end to the Gaza war will end his political career, not just that (INAUDIBLE) them behind bars.
ANDERSON: What happens next?
What will be the Iranian response?
SHABANI: So they promised what they call a special operation, which was precisely what they did an April, when Israel attacked the U.N. consulate
in Damascus. At the time, they spent several days telegraphing this attack, giving the Israelis time to prepare, giving the Americans time to also
coordinate --
ANDERSON: Would you expect that to happen this time?
SHABANI: I think there are some differences this time. One difference is, at this time, I believe other actors in addition to Iran will take part.
And this isn't just because of Iran wanting to mobilize its allies in the axis.
[10:50:04]
It's also because we had the Hezbollah incident, the bombing in Beirut, which gives Hezbollah itself separate motivation to do something.
We also had last night a bombing in Iraq, which is far less reported. That bombing was not carried out by Israel but carried out by the U.S. So we're
talking about three different attacks in the span of 24 hours carried out by Israel and the U.S.
Whether or not they coordinated, open question. But we will probably see a multi-pronged attack from several different actors for several different
reasons, right?
ANDERSON: On just Israel?
Or could those attacks beyond Israel's allies, including the U.S. and region?
SHABANI: That could happen in Iraq. But that would mean an intra-Iraqi kind of dynamic rather than Iran directing somebody like that, I would say.
ANDERSON: Your insight is most valuable. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
Right. Still to come, how unprecedented events in the Middle East are impacting financial markets. Going to get you that after this.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
ANDERSON: As the political world reacts to spiking tensions in the Middle East, inevitably, it's important to have a look at what the markets are up
to; very specifically, the oil price. Let's bring in Matt Egan.
Matt, what's the story out there?
MATT EGAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR WRITER: Well, Becky, this situation in the Middle East has the full and undivided attention of the oil markets. The
assassination of the political leader of Hamas raises the specter of an all-out war in what is, of course, the most critical region on the planet
for energy.
So when we look at what's happening in the market, we see U.S. oil prices jumping about 3 percent. Brent crude, the world benchmark, up nearly that
much. I would say this reaction is significant but hardly panic.
As you can see in the chart, oil prices are still down on the month and they're well below where they were last fall, when they were approaching
$100 a barrel; closer to $80 a barrel right now.
Of course, one of the recent drivers for the retreat in oil prices was the hope that maybe there would be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas over
Gaza and, of course, that looks increasingly unlikely, in part because one of the negotiators has now been assassinated.
The real fear here is an escalation, right?
That this violence spreads, the conflict becomes bigger and it eventually disrupts oil flows, particularly from Iran, which is exporting around 2
million to 3 million barrels of oil a day.
That's the big risk here. Hopefully that doesn't happen because, not only would there be real lives impacted, there could be an economic impact,
right?
I mean, a spike in oil prices would threaten economies around the world. It would worsen inflation at a time when, here in the United States, the
Federal Reserve is preparing potentially to start to cut interest rates for the first time since COVID.
So all of that is very important. A former CIA analyst, Helima Croft, who is now at RBC Capital Markets, she warned clients today that in an -- at a
minimum, this situation raises the specter of a dangerous "fog of war" dynamic.
And she says that the risk of a serious miscalculation is magnified. And Helima Croft, she noted that, back in 2019, there were those drone attacks
on Saudi oil facilities that sent oil prices briefly skyrocketing.
[10:55:00]
That situation just exposed how vulnerable energy infrastructure in the region is and how there can just a massive economic and financial market
impact.
ANDERSON: Yes, and how vulnerable it can be to Iran's proxies.
Of course. And that's important as we continue to consider what Iran's reaction might be to our breaking news today, which is the assassination of
the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in Iran, reportedly out of Iran.
He was killed by a rocket into his bedroom in a house that he was staying in, in northern Tehran. He was there, of course, for the inauguration of
the new Iranian president.
Right, that's it for this hour and for the CONNECT THE WORLD show but do stay with CNN. Our breaking news continues and "NEWSROOM" is up next.
END
