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U.S. Doctor with Ebola Receiving Treatment in Germany; UK Releases Files on Mountbatten-Windsor's Envoy Role; Rubio to Visit Sweden for NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting; Oil Prices Rebound on Fading Hopes of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal; Musk-owned Rocket Company Officially Files for NASDAQ IPO. Aired 9-9:45a ET

Aired May 21, 2026 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well top story this hour, brand-new reporting that Iran is rebuilding its military industrial base

much faster than expected. It is 09:00 a.m. in Washington. More on that exclusive reporting at CNN. Well, it's 05:00 p.m. in Abu Dhabi.

From our Middle East programming headquarters, I'm Becky Anderson. You're watching "Connect the World". Also coming up, the global effort containing

deadly Ebola virus cases rising, and a vaccine could take months. And Britain releases 25-year-old files on the disgraced Former Prince Andrew

shedding light on how he landed a privileged job as trade envoy.

Stock market in New York, folks, opening in about 30 minutes from now. U.S. futures slipping slightly after Nvidia's results last night. We'll have a

look at those. We could be in for a lower start this Thursday. More at 09:30 local time, of course. Well, new U.S. intelligence has found that

Iran is rebuilding its military capabilities faster than expected.

Sources tell CNN Tehran has already restarted production of drones, with some estimates saying they could be back to full drone capacity within six

months. Meanwhile, mediation efforts to achieve a peace agreement appear to be intensifying. Pakistan's Interior Minister, seen here, held talks in

Tehran earlier, his second visit there in less than a week.

Right, let's start in Washington for you. CNN's Senior National Security Reporter Zachary Cohen joining us from there. It does seem as if American

intelligence has been somewhat surprised by the speed with which Iran is reconstituted. It's a sort of military industrial base. Just explain what

you've learned.

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Becky, we're learning that Iran is actively working to rebuild its production facilities

and weapons capabilities that were severely damaged and degraded by those U.S.-Israeli strikes, and based on U.S. intelligence assessments, they're

doing so more quickly than what the U.S. intelligence community initially believed.

And look, this is based on multiple sources that are pointing to one example in particular, that Iran has already restarted some of its drone

production, which, of course, is one of the key capabilities that Iran maintains, and was targeted by the U.S. and Israel. Apparently, some of

those production facilities are now back online.

And, as you mentioned, I'm told by a U.S. official that U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran could restore full capability in its drone

attack capability within six months. And more broadly, Iran also working to reconstitute its military capabilities writ large, including replacing its

missile sites, its launchers, and as well as working to restore its defense industrial base more broadly.

And across the board I'm told that the projections are that they could fully reconstitute those in a matter of months, not years, and that does

diverge from what we've heard from top U.S. military officials as recently as this week. Admiral Brad Cooper, who is the Commander of U.S. Central

Command, saying during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee that they have, that the U.S. and Israel destroyed 90 percent of Iran's

industrial base and has set Iran back years before they're able to reconstitute.

Our sources saying that it's more of a matter of months for those key capabilities, which obviously poses a challenge for the U.S. and for

President Donald Trump, as he is continuing to weigh whether to restart this conflict, or to try to continue to push forward with some sort of

diplomatic resolution.

But the more time that goes by, Becky, what these U.S. intelligence assessments are clearly indicating is that Iran will continue to build back

those military capabilities that it lost, and will likely do so in a shorter amount of time than anyone really anticipated.

ANDERSON: Good to have you, Zachary. Thank you very much indeed. I want to bring in Rafael Grossi, who is the Director General of the International

Atomic Energy Agency. This week, certain, thank you for joining us. We were reminded of the threat that that drone program from Iran is on the UAE, for

example, Saudi and Kuwait, certainly a drone hitting the Barakah nuclear plant here in the UAE.

Do you have growing concerns about the vulnerability of these nuclear plants in this conflict?

[09:05:00]

RAFAEL GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: Well, thank you, Becky, good to talk to you again. Of course, the situation

in the Middle East is very volatile. You are reporting about that. And this new incident highlights how fragile the whole situation is.

This last episode, last weekend, with a hit very near one of the reactors, you know, Barakah is a nuclear power plant where you live in the Emirates

in the Abu Dhabi state, but closer, in fact, to the Saudi and Qatari border for nuclear power plants providing already 25 percent of the electricity

that you are using now, right now at the studio.

So, a very key element in the Emirati infrastructure that was affected by this. I was over the weekend in contact immediately with the deputy prime

minister and foreign minister, and I will be in the region very, very soon, because there is great concern not only in the Emirates, but in general, as

I'm saying, this is a matter of potential Trump boundary consequences, if in case of a worst-case scenario, this was serious enough.

The day before yesterday, I was briefing the United Nations Security Council, which was convened at the initiative of Bahrain, sitting at the

moment as non-permanent member of the council, and we had an important session. I briefed them technically on what had happened.

And of course, the IAEA, as custodian of nuclear safety, global custodian of nuclear safety, must be there expressing support, as we have done in the

past in other conflicts, like the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as we have been discussing in the past with you.

ANDERSON: Yeah. And you will not be surprised that, that attack was considered ruthless and reckless here. Thankfully, we can underscore that

there was no radiation leak, and you made that point.

GROSSI: No.

ANDERSON: So, that's, you know, that's a good thing, obviously. And we're safe. Yesterday, you did speak at that emergency session of the U.N.

Security Council, and you were clear about the threats of hitting nuclear facilities, and you were clear about a path forward. I just want our

viewers to hear this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GROSSI: It is clear that the only sustainable path forward to peace, stability, and cooperation is one grounded in dialog and diplomacy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Right, well, the conflict currently on tenterhooks. There is a sort of flurry of messaging, if not activity, around talks. Iran's nuclear

program still hanging in the balance. Do you continue to have faith that diplomacy will win out, and will the IAEA be a part of an Iran-U.S. deal at

this point?

GROSSI: Well, on those two points, Becky, the first is not a matter of faith, is a matter of necessity. It is clear by, at this point after the

12-day war, and this new war that we have, that of course military means are there, but there for a sustainable, long-standing solution of these, we

will have to gather around the diplomatic table.

You were just reporting about the efforts steered by Pakistan. In the past, we had Oman, in very noble efforts trying to do this, and I think there is

a possibility now that we might be coming closer to one agreement. On the second, I would say it is absolutely indispensable.

I cannot imagine a good agreement, which we would not have a robust verification. An agreement without international impartial verification is

an illusion. So, and I don't have any reason to believe that it would be otherwise. As you know, we have been closely associated with the diplomatic

negotiations in the past.

ANDERSON: OK.

GROSSI: And we are still in contact bilaterally with the actors, with the players. Yes.

ANDERSON: The issue of the highly enriched uranium has not been resolved, nor has it been found. Three weeks ago, you said it is likely still at the

Isfahan site, is that still an accurate assessment?

GROSSI: Yes, it is an accurate assessment. The issue there is the accessibility, and I think this has been referred to by President Trump, by

the Iranians themselves.

[09:10:00]

So, it's -- how do you access that material and ultimately, what you do with it.

ANDERSON: President Trump continues to say the enriched uranium has been removed. Is this feasible? Is the uranium accessible?

GROSSI: Well, there is, you know, in Isfahan, in one of the facilities in Isfahan, there is, of course, there has been attacks and the whole

structure is compromised. There has been work to try to block also access to the -- so there is a mix of rubble that came about as a result of the

attacks.

But also, an effort, a protective effort, one could perhaps describe it like this, by the Iranian government to try to protect by just simply

accumulating earth on the axis. So, it is not inaccessible, it is a matter, it is something that would require equipment, perhaps heavy equipment, but

it's not inaccessible.

ANDERSON: Right.

GROSSI: You can do it. It would take some time, but it can be done.

ANDERSON: Let me ask you this. According to Reuters report, the new Supreme Leader has said that the enriched uranium should not be sent abroad in any

agreement. Is there a situation in which Iran can keep that enriched uranium? Does this revive the idea of a regional consortium, for example?

GROSSI: Well, you know, this is the essence and central point in the negotiation, and you can have many alternatives, and many have been

discussed, Becky. We have discussed, for example, of course the exfiltration and export ship out of the material, other alternatives have

been discussed, like keeping it there, like down blending it there, and at that point you can either keep it or export it.

So, I think these are all alternatives, and all of them are possible, what is clear, I think, for everyone is that unless and until the issue of the

60 percent is resolved, it will be very, very difficult to have an overall comprehensive agreement.

ANDERSON: Rafael, the U.S. President has said on numerous occasions over the past weeks that if the Iranians don't give him what he describes as the

nuclear dust. The Americans will go in and get it, or we, I guess that could be Israel and the U.S. when he uses the term we.

GROSSI: Yeah.

ANDERSON: Is that feasible that the U.S. ever thought Israel would just go in and get it wherever they think it is, or however inaccessible it is?

GROSSI: Well, you know, in terms of alternatives, hypothesis, a hypothetical case, what you are describing. It would not be impossible, it

would be difficult, it would be perhaps under fire, it would be a battle for the uranium. So, all the more, all the more an incentive for everybody

to have a diplomatic solution, which is very possible.

We are here. The IEA has technical solutions to get this done in a peaceful way.

ANDERSON: You talk about those technical solutions. Are you satisfied that the U.S. team negotiating in the first instance what looks like just a

framework to then be sort of further discussed down the road, you satisfied that the U.S. has a sufficiently sophisticated enough team of technical

experts that any deal on Iran's nuclear program would be sufficient in your eyes.

GROSSI: Yes, of course. Yes, of course. I think both sides, all on the Iranian side, of course, and the American side have political negotiators,

have legal teams, and have nuclear experts. So, I'm not, you know, I read things like this, I don't agree with that assessment, and I've been there

around the table, so I can, you know, confirm that. Yeah.

ANDERSON: You're coming to the region soon. We started by talking about that briefly. Do you have plans to go to Iran?

GROSSI: Not yet to Iran, but meeting with Iranians, maybe, yes, so everything is possible at this point. I'll be there in the Gulf visiting

several countries, and then we will see how the negotiation, you know, basically the IEA is at the service of the negotiation to make it work, so

they know where to find me.

ANDERSON: You would expect to be at the next round of talks, then, would you?

GROSSI: I don't know. I don't know, but what is clear is that without the IEA, without international verification, any agreement would be extremely

doubtful.

ANDERSON: Would it surprise you?

[09:15:00]

And again, briefly, I'm -- I'm going to wind this up, would it surprise you if those talks and moved away from Islamabad at this point to, for example,

Geneva or Qatar.

GROSSI: No, well, you know, I think the issue is, and I think you were describing the fact that the Pakistani Minister of the Interior went to

Tehran. I think that once you start these processes, there are a number of different conversations that spawn out of the central set of meetings.

So, while I'm not privy to any plans that they may be having, I wouldn't see that as impossible. The important thing is that we keep the momentum

and, on the technical side, that we can work as quickly as possible towards a solution, everybody is expecting that the world expects that the region

deserves it.

ANDERSON: Rafael Grossi, always good to have you on. Thank you very much indeed. Your perspective enormously valuable out of Vienna in Austria

today.

GROSSI: Thank you.

ANDERSON: Thank you. Well, the World Health Organization says the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda poses a high risk

at a local and regional level. So far, they say it is not a global pandemic threat. Health authorities in the DRC say at least 148 deaths are now

thought to be linked to the spread.

So far 51 cases have been officially confirmed, but hundreds more are suspected. One of those is the American physician, Peter Stafford. He's

been flown to Germany for his care after testing positive for the virus several days ago. Six of his high-risk contacts are also heading to Europe

for observation.

Well CNN's Fred Pleitgen reports from Berlin on how the doctor's recovery is going.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A heavily protected convoy of special ambulances carrying American Peter

Stafford to Germany's top infectious disease hospital in the middle of the night. The medical doctor working in Eastern Congo confirmed to have

contracted a strand of the highly contagious and deadly Ebola virus.

The Serge missionary charity that sent Dr. Stafford and his family to Congo for medical work, telling CNN they're concerned but hopeful he'll pull

through.

MATT ALLISON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF SERGE: He's in a state of mind and of health that he's able to communicate with us. He continues to have a fever,

dizziness, lightness of head, and some nausea, which is fairly typical symptoms for Ebola.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): The infectious disease ward at Berlin's Charite Hospital is known as one of the best in the world. Peter Stafford's wife

Rebekah, and their four children also isolated here, even though they remain asymptomatic. Another U.S. doctor, Patrick LaRochelle, who had

contact with Peter Stafford while in Congo, flown to the Czech Republic for isolation and observation.

PLEITGEN: The sign that you see behind me says, restricted area danger of infection. This is as close as we can get to the actual isolation ward,

where the hospital says the American patient is getting the best care possible.

ALLISON: He's getting like a monoclonal antibody treatment. He's in the center of excellence for Ebola care with doctors who have treated Ebola

before. You know, a day ago he needed assistance to even walk into the containment unit for his air evac, and so we see some progress, and we're

really encouraged.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): But encouragement is hard to come by in the areas affected by the Ebola outbreak in Eastern Congo, Uganda, and possibly South

Sudan. A vicious strand of the virus, for which no vaccine exists that causes severe pain, internal and external bleeding, and bruises often

ending in death.

The World Health Organization now classifying this outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern. Dozens already killed by the

virus, and the number of infections rapidly rising, the W.H.O. says.

TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: We expect those numbers to keep increasing, given the amount of time the

virus was circulating before the outbreak was detected.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Ebola's mortality rates are extremely high, but German health officials say their doctors are well equipped to give the

U.S. citizen they're treating the best chance of survival and recovery. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Well, still to come, NATO allies face growing pressure from the United States over defense spending as the war in Ukraine intensifies. More

on that is coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:20:00]

ANDERSON: Welcome back. We're following a developing story for you about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's controversial former role as UK trade envoy.

Let me explain. The government minister says there is no evidence any vetting was carried out on the former prince's suitability for the job

before he was appointed.

Now it comes as the government released documents related to how Mountbatten-Windsor was actually given the position, which he left in 2011

following controversy over his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. CNN's Max Foster, following this story for us.

He joins us now from London. So, what's been published in these documents? What have we learned so far, Max?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Various letters between government officials and palace officials, as well as you say no prior vetting. Some

argue that would be normal, because members of the royal family would have done trade work before, so not necessarily unexpected, particularly for

that period.

But perhaps more surprising is that no one else was considered for the role. And questions were raised in the various letters here about whether

he had any experience in this, he had just left the navy, but not necessarily an experience in trade. So that's one question, I think, one

part that everyone is picking up on is an official suggesting that the late queen Andrew's mother was very keen that Andrew take on a prominent role.

And the queen's wish was for him to serve as trade envoy. So that push may have been something that encouraged the government to allow him to do this

job, which, of course, as you say, he left in 2011 over the Epstein links. And he's currently under investigation because of what he may have leaked

in relation to those Epstein links as well. He denies any wrongdoing, of course, Becky, as we've reported before.

ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely. Meantime, I do want to just get your thoughts on this. UK radio station, I think it was Radio Caroline, apologizing to

King Charles the Third, Andrew's brother, of course, and its listeners for accidentally announcing the death of the monarch.

What happened, and what's been the reaction to this? Let's call it a slip- up, I guess.

FOSTER: -- bit of mystery here, Becky, because over the years, of course, there have been moments where this has happened before. It's usually in

relation to a big rehearsal taking place at one of the networks. Someone not involved in that rehearsal thinks what's going on, they leak it, and

they, you know, happened with the queen a couple of times.

That on social media, we saw that the BBC, for example, had announced her death. They hadn't done that. It was just a rehearsal. It shouldn't have

leaked. This is slightly odd. So, this is what the station manager says. Due to a computer error at our main studio, the death of a monarch

procedure on that procedure, which all UK stations hold in readiness, whilst hoping not to require it, was accidentally activated, mistakenly

announcing that His Majesty the King had passed away.

So, some sort of computer glitch. It's not really clear why that was, but after these announcements, there's a moment of silence.

[09:25:00]

And the statement goes on to say Radio Caroline, then fell silent as would be required, and that's when they realized basically something was going

wrong. Alerted them to restore programming, and they issued an on-air apology. So, it's a bit of a mystery. Was there some sort of automated

system that kicked in for the king's death? If there was, pretty extraordinary, it didn't go through human first.

ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely. Not going to happen at CNN, I hope. You're there. Thank you, Max. Well, that does appear to be the first legal

challenge to the U.S. Justice Department's so-called anti-weaponization fund. Two police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on January the

sixth, 2021 when Trump supporters, of course, violently rioted, are suing to stop any payouts from that fund.

Now, critics call it a nearly $2 billion slush fund meant to benefit Trump allies who claim they were unfairly targeted by the previous

administration. Those critics worry that some of the money could end up going to January the sixth rioters and election deniers.

Well, President Trump himself keeps trying to distance himself from the fund while simultaneously defending it. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I wasn't involved in the settlement. The people were destroyed, they went to jail, their

families were ruined, they committed suicide, you know all the Biden Administration and the Obama Administration, both of them, you're talking

about peanuts compared to the value.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, meanwhile, a growing number of lawmakers, including some Republicans, also object to this fund.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN CURTIS (R-UT): I will tell you, my first reaction was, this doesn't pass the smell test.

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): It sends a signal, hey, go breach the Capitol, destroy the building, assault police officers, and you may even get

compensated someday. That's absurd.

SEN. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-PA): We got to unpack exactly what it is, what the source of the funding is, in order to stop it and or reverse it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: OK, well, you get the reaction there on Capitol Hill. The U.S. Secretary of State, meantime, is poised to reiterate U.S. demands for NATO

allies to invest more in their own defense. On Friday, Marco Rubio was set to meet with foreign ministers from the other alliance members.

And he will again insist that the burden of spending be shared more equally. The meeting comes as fighting between Russia and Ukraine shows no

sign of easing. Ukrainian officials claim at least 65 trainee Russian drone pilots and an instructor were killed on Wednesday in a Ukrainian drone

attack on their training campaign.

You're seeing some video from Ukraine. Here, let's bring in CNN's Nick Paton Walsh, joining us now from Kyiv. We are looking at this video, this

pretty grainy video, as we speak. Nick, just tell us more about what we understand to have happened.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, it's an important reflection here of what Ukraine says is its increasing

range, ability to strike targets here in occupied Ukraine, but areas where possibly a year or two ago Russian troops would have felt were entirely

safe.

The incident you're referring to is in a place called Snizhne in Donetsk area, where it appears that 65 drone cadets, according to some of the video

filmed from the ground, possibly Chechen cadets from that area of Russia, were hit by a drone schooling in the art of attack drones in an area, as I

say, where Ukraine is finding increased efficiency when it comes to hitting Russian supply lines and troop gatherings.

We've heard a lot about Ukraine's deeper strikes into Russia, Moscow oil fields around the country, potentially thousands of kilometers of times

that they're able to fire these drones. But it's the medium range ones hitting Russian supply lines again and again enabling Ukraine to sort of

slow down Russia's advances to, frankly, a cruel or negligible amount in recent weeks or so that are becoming key.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well, using today to refer to another strike in the occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, in which he says 100 or

so Russian troops were killed or wounded by another drone strike that seems to have hit a Russian air defense system, causing a massive secondary

explosion there as well.

We don't have the Russian Defense Ministry's response on either part of these claims, but they do form part of this pattern. Ukraine has set a goal

that every month it wishes to kill or injure 35,000 Russian troops to essentially stress Russia's ability to field enough troops to the front

lines, where they are dying in horrifically large numbers in often futile frontal assaults against Ukrainian positions.

[09:30:00]

Ukraine is using drones to do that, they're finding better success at penetrating Russian air defenses, the Kremlin increasingly under criticism

for not having control of the defense of Russia's skies itself. Look, we're not at this point seeing a moment where Ukraine can be said to be

convincingly and irretrievably winning the war here.

But certainly, the pressures on Russia are significantly greater now than they are on Ukraine, and that in itself is startling. After the 18 months

of President Zelenskyy has endured, along with Ukraine, here of a Russian advance on the battlefield, its key ally now the Trump Administration, but

the United States deeply critical, and apparently at times more sympathetic to the Russian point of view.

We're now seeing a moment where Ukraine has managed to salvage from these technological advances leap forwards in drone technology and other things

along the front line that make up for its massive problems of manpower here and have bought it sometime some breathing room ultimately and enabled it

to slow Russia's advance down to, as I said, something negligible at times.

A startling change in the dynamic of the war here as well, and one which is putting increased pressure on the Kremlin to explain its end game here.

ANDERSON: Good to have you, Nick. Thank you very much indeed. As Nick was talking, the bell ringing thousands of miles away on Wall Street, ringing

in the trading day. Let's have a look at how these markets have kicked off that trading day, and the three indices are lower. More on that after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi. You're watching "Connect the World". We'll see how stocks are responding to shifting energy

markets. Oil prices back on the rise amid what some believe is fading hopes of U.S.-Iran peace deal. That comes after U.S. crude briefly dipping below

$100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time in more than a week.

It has to be said, they were quite some significant reductions in the prices yesterday, but we've seen these markets back up again today. These

are the current prices on the oil markets, and this is what is going on, on the U.S. markets, which you would sort of, you know, if you were looking at

sort of normal markets, you would expect these markets to go a bit lower as that oil price goes a bit higher, bar the energy giants, of course.

But nothing is normal on these markets these days, and that's really the conversation I want to have with my next guest.

[09:35:00]

It's Mohamed El-Erian. He is the Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, and a regular guest on this show. Mohamed, nearly three months after the start of

this U.S.-Iran war, we are seeing a pickup in messaging, but we've got no real substantive detail about what happens next, whether or not we are

looking at a deal or a ratcheting up, an escalation in fighting once again.

And it does feel as if investors are looking less at fundamentals these days. And more at this sort of lurching around at these sorts of days to

day, hour by hour headlines out of Washington and Tehran. Would you agree?

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER AT ALLIANZ: I would, with two qualifications, if I may, Becky. The equity market and the bond market are

in different worlds. The equity market believes that it is protected by tech dominance and has bought into the AI promise to such an extent that it

has sidelined a lot of what's happening from the war.

The bond market, yes, it fluctuates daily according to oil prices, but it's recalibrating to a world of higher inflation and higher interest rates. So,

you have that contrast, and then when you come to the economy, it matters a great deal where you are in the world. The U.S. is energy independent, so

feels an inflation shock, but isn't worried about shortages, physical shortages. Go to Asia is a completely different --

ANDERSON: That's fascinating, and it's an important point you make. I want to bring up what Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE's Minister of Industry and

Advanced Technology and Head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, warned yesterday. He said Gulf oil flows would take months to recover, even if the

Iran conflict ends immediately.

If recovery of Gulf oil exports is delayed by logistics and infrastructure damage. Do you believe we're looking at a longer lasting risk to energy

prices than traders are currently pricing in, even longer than what we see being priced in in some of those markets, which are not energy independent,

as you rightly pointed out, in some parts of the world.

EL-ERIAN: Absolutely, yes. I think the markets underestimate two things. First, Dr. Sultan's clear message, which is, you know, the oil market is

not like a light switch, you turn on and off, it takes time to restore normal conditions, and it's going to take months as he points out.

The second thing that the market isn't focusing on is the level of inventories. They are at eight years low. We have been shielded, believe it

or not, from a major price shock because we've been drawing down inventories around the world, but we're getting closer to critical level.

I think the markets are in this own world where somehow, they believe that we will get some sort of resolution of the war and everything is going to

be back to normal quickly. I don't think that's going to -- that's the case.

ANDERSON: Can we talk about treasury yields and the bond markets? We've seen yields move almost in lockstep with oil on inflation fears. I mean,

inflation is the nemesis of these bond markets, of course. I mean, you learn that in Econ 101. How strong is that link, though, right now? And do

you see some distortion in that bond market?

EL-ERIAN: So, I think the link is strong. It is so strong that it is ignoring some other things that it should be looking at. Let me give you

two. One is Turkey is the latest one to report now that it's virtually eliminated all its holding of U.S. treasuries. We have countries around the

world selling their holding of U.S. treasuries, monetizing them in order to pay for the higher oil imports in order to protect their currencies.

And the second issue that isn't being taken into account is the massive amount of issuance ahead of us, where is all this money going to come from

for all the mega IPOs, SpaceX, OpenAI, and as well all the issuance due to government deficits and companies needing to borrow.

So yes, absolutely, the bond market is fixated on oil prices going up and down, depending on what oil does, but these bigger issues also that it's

going to have to deal with.

ANDERSON: Yeah, it's fascinating. I wanted to talk to you about that IPO, that SpaceX IPO, which is officially been filed as Elon Musk looks to raise

more money.

[09:40:00]

We'll do that next time, you and I speak, because I've run out of time today. It's always good to have you on. Mohamed, thank you very much indeed

for joining us. Ahead on "World Sport" this hour, a trophy for Aston Villa decades in the making.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: I want to get you to football now, where the English Premier League side Aston Villa have completed a genuine turnaround, having lifted

European silverware for the first time in nearly five decades. We're going to get more on that after this short break. That's "World Sport". I'll be

back in 15 minutes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:45:00]

(WORLD SPORT)

END