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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Both Presidential Recovery and Stimulus Hopes Calm Global Stocks; Donald Trump's Doctor Say He Could be Discharged as Early as Today; COVID Rules and a Lack of New Movies Force Hundreds of Theaters to Close. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired October 05, 2020 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:18]
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: Live from New York, I'm Julian Chatterley. This is FIRST MOVE, and he is you need to know.
Sentiment stabilized. Both presidential recovery and stimulus hopes calm global stocks.
Presidential COVID watch. His doctor say he could be discharged as early as today.
And Cineworld shutdown. COVID rules and a lack of new movies force hundreds of theaters to close.
It's Monday. Let's make a move.
A warm welcome to FIRST MOVE once again. I hope everybody had a safe and restful weekend. Coming up in the next hour, we'll bring you the very
latest on the market, the political and the health implications of President Trump's COVID diagnosis.
We'll be hearing from the chief scientist of Regeneron, the maker of the experimental antibody cocktail that the President was given to help fight
the virus, plus market expert, Alicia Levine on what markets are saying about who might be the eventual White House winner.
For now, though, as I mentioned, equities have stabilized along with the President's health, at least according to his medical team.
We're seeing shares gain across all major markets, which makes sense. The fear last week, I think that the President might not be well enough to
remain on the ballot, so we are walking back from there. What seemed to stabilize things, too, on Friday was a promise from House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi that helped was quote, "imminent" for beleaguered U.S. airlines.
There's certainly an argument that the COVID carnage and I'm quoting an investor this weekend and the Republican Party may perhaps make them more
agreeable to further aid.
President Trump tweeted his support for a deal over the weekend. He has also been tweeting again this morning about his expectations for stocks
next year, promising the best returns ever if he is re-elected.
The S&P is up some 35 percent since Election Day 2016. But oh boy, has it been volatile. The big question now is whether the $2.2 trillion of
additional stimulus that the House, the Democrats have in the House are trying to come up with is the price the President is willing to pay to
boost his reelection chances.
The markets don't need additional stimulus; the economy, people small businesses do.
Let's get to the drivers. The White House Chief of Staff says a decision whether to release President Trump from hospital will be made later today.
It follow's Sunday's impromptu drive by around the Walter Reed Medical Center where he was being treated.
Joe Johns has all the details.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice over): A political photo-op as a show of strength, raising questions this morning about how
seriously the White House is taking the President's COVID-19 diagnosis.
President Trump being driven past supporters outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, seen through his SUV window wearing a face mask
and waving to his supporters, a member of the Secret Service detail in personal protective gear.
The drive-by prompting outcry from medical experts who questioned Trump's judgment and his doctors.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. JONATHAN REINER, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: Amazingly irresponsible. His physician should have said no.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS (voice over): An attending physician at Walter Reed Hospital who is not treating the President had this response.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. JAMES PHILLIPS, NON-MILITARY ATTENDING PHYSICIAN, WALTER REED: I have a hard time believing that without undue influence based on their chain of
command that those physicians would have cleared that.
Masks or no masks, being inside a vehicle that is hermetically sealed, circulates virus inside and potentially puts people at risk.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS (voice over): The White House saying this event was cleared by Trump's medical team.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JASON MILLER, TRUMP CAMPAIGN ADVISER: I don't think this was a stunt at all. I think this is President Trump showing people that he is very
gracious for the hospitality they've shown him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS (voice over): The President also releasing a video recorded in the hospital saying he had learned a lot about the virus, more than eight
months after the first U.S. cases were reported.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I learned a lot about COVID. I learned that by really going to school. This is the real school.
This isn't the let's-read-the-books school, and I get it and I understand it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNS (voice over): Meanwhile, Trump's doctors saying he is receiving an aggressive cocktail of medications, including a five-day treatment of
antiviral drug, remdesivir; the steroids dexamethasone, and an experimental antibody treatment.
But Trump's doctors are evading some direct questions about the President's condition. Trump's physician contradicting overly optimistic statements he
made on Saturday, revealing that the President's blood oxygen levels dropped on both Friday and Saturday, and that he received supplemental
oxygen at the White House on Friday.
[09:05:04]
JOHNS (voice over): Dr. Sean Conley admitting his team had not fully disclosed the President's concerning condition.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. SEAN CONLEY, WHITE HOUSE PHYSICIAN: I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude that the team, the President, his course of illness has had. I
didn't want to give any information that might steer the course of illness in another direction.
And in doing so, you know, it came off that we were trying to hide something. It wasn't necessarily true.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: The President has also been extremely active on Twitter this morning, firing off 18 tweets in less than an hour. Let's bring in CNN's
John Harwood in Washington. Eye-opening events, John, again, words fail me over the weekend. The message from the President seems to be I'm back, I'm
tweeting. I'm okay to do a drive by of supporters. But the mixed messages here, even from this White House, huge.
JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Julia, we just don't know what to believe about the President's condition because Dr. Conley
acknowledged that he purposely misled the press about the status of the President.
So when he came out, you know, after, in essence radio silence from the administration on the President's condition on Friday, Dr. Conley came out
and said, well, he is doing well, good spirits. He wouldn't say anything about how high his fever had been. He wouldn't reveal that he had taken
oxygen. He wouldn't reveal the contents of his lung scans, to tell us whether his lungs had been damaged.
We then learned over the weekend that the President is taking the steroid, dexamethasone, which is typically only given to patients who are seriously
ill. He also had the monoclonal antibodies. He had the Regeneron treatment.
And so we simply do not know whether the President is about to be all better and released. They haven't told us when his last negative test was,
which would tell us how far along on the course of illness that he is, because this is a very unpredictable illness. And so sometimes, if you get
it, in the first couple of days, you can have misleadingly good days that suddenly take a turn for the worse.
If he has been in it a week or more, 10 days, then that would be a more positive sign. But since the White House is not providing adequate
information, it's very difficult for us to say, and Mark Meadows, the Chief of Staff was just interviewed on FOX a short while ago and said that
decision would be made later today.
So we're left to wonder whether or not Julia, they are saying that he could be released today for the effect of conveying that he is a lot better or
because he actually intends to be released today.
CHATTERLEY: It's quite astonishing, isn't it, John, this suggestion from his doctor that he was trying to be upbeat, as to put a positive spin on
it. It's a case of wanting the truth about the President's health rather than any form of spin even when the medical community is suggesting perhaps
that they are giving you a rosier picture than perhaps is required.
Again, it comes back to the trust in science and the trust in those people around the President to tell the truth.
HARWOOD: That's right, and when you have doctors come out and brief on the condition of the President, which is a subject of worldwide interest, it's
not just of concern to Americans, but our allies or adversaries to know to what degree the President is in control and in charge. It is very important
to provide accurate information.
I remember when Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981. They had briefings at George Washington University Hospital where the President was being cared
for, providing very detailed information about how the President was doing, and that is a way of inspiring confidence in the American people, and it
kind of mirrors the President's approach to coronavirus.
He told Bob Woodward, he wanted to downplay the situation in order to avoid inspiring panic in the country.
But in reality, the more you give it to the American people straight, prepare them for what's to come, that's how you prevent panic over the
medium and long term.
It's not just about the moment that you're giving the information, it is about inspiring confidence that you know what you're doing. Your team knows
what it's doing, and it is competently running the government and taking care of the situation.
CHATTERLEY: Well, the President now says he has been schooled in what COVID actually is seven months later. John Harwood, thank you so much for
that.
HARWOOD: You bet.
CHATTERLEY: Investors remain on presidential COVID watch this morning, but eyes on D.C., too where Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi are expected to continue stimulus talks this week.
Christine Romans joins us now. Christine, I have to say, we are a long way from Friday when markets tremored and I think part of the fear was, is it
even going to be able to be well enough to be on the ballot come election time? So we've shifted.
But my view is, sentiment already shifted on Friday when we heard rumblings about an agreement perhaps coming on stimulus for airlines. What do you
make of it?
[09:10:06]
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: I agree with you, Julia. And I think that maybe the President being the most famous or
highest ranking American political figure to have COVID maybe put some new energy into stimulus talks.
And the President on Saturday was tweeting about getting a deal done. So maybe he's going to use his influence this time. Some of the negotiations
this summer, the leadership from the White House had been lacking, and it had really been Senate Republicans and Nancy Pelosi's team who had been
really hammering this out. Maybe the President is going to use some of his political capital to get something done.
So maybe the shift now is from a week ago, we were talking about a contested election and a peaceful transfer of power. And today, again,
we're talking about a President who has COVID, who appears to be recovering and maybe new energy in stimulus talks.
CHATTERLEY: Interesting that you mentioned the peaceful transfer of power, because there was a poll done over the weekend, "Wall Street Journal," in
particular, putting Vice President Biden 14 points ahead.
Now, they've been consistently ahead of the other polls, we should say, and it's not so high if you look at the polls on average, but I do think
perhaps, and I know you and I agree on this, that, you know, perhaps markets are looking at this, and it's not about future policy. It's simply
about having a decision come Election Day and not having a contested election.
ROMANS: Absolutely. Wall Street hates a contested election more than it hates Joe Biden's economic plans or the possibility of potentially higher
taxes, corporate taxes or something down the road. A contested election where you have a very tight race and you have weeks of courtroom drama and
anxiety and division in this country is something that CEOs don't want to see, investors don't want to see. It's just not good for the country.
So if you see that gap widening in those polls, that gives a little bit of relief to investors who are worried about the potential for a contested
election or even a long time getting your election results that allows division to grow and allows misinformation and conspiracies to grow in the
ether in the United States.
So I think that those polls are definitely part of the mood here this morning as well, I agree with you.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and then they can worry about a Democratic sweep -- a clean sweep here.
ROMANS: Exactly.
CHATTERLEY: And what that would mean for policy, but that comes later.
Christian Romans, thank you for that.
ROMANS: You're welcome.
CHATTERLEY: All right, here are some of the other stories making headlines around the world. France is re-imposing tight restrictions in the Greater
Paris area to try to slow a surge in coronavirus cases.
Starting Tuesday, all bars will be closed for 15 days as the area goes on maximum alert. Restaurants can remain open if they follow certain
precautions.
India meanwhile, has outlined an ambitious new plan to vaccinate 250 million of its citizens against coronavirus by next July. The country is
second in the world in terms of number of COVID cases. But there's been a steady decline in daily infections. More than 100,000 people in India have
died of the virus.
It's Golden Week in China and tourism is on the rise. In just the first four days of the holiday, officials say there were 425 million domestic
trips.
Our Will Ripley joins us now live from Hong Kong with all the details. Will, people enthusiastically traveling domestically, it seems. Are they
spending as enthusiastically?
WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, and no. They are spending, but in smaller numbers than what was seen in China last year,
Julia. Still the tourism numbers in China because of the fact that they're not allowing in international visitors there, they are far below normal.
They're down nearly a third from last year.
This is according to the new figures that are out from China's Ministry of Cultural Tourism. They said that 425 million Chinese hit the road from
Thursday to Sunday, those are the first four days of the eight-day national holiday. That's a drop from 542 million in the same period last year.
But when you look at the social media posts from people in China on Chinese social media, and you see these, you know, tourist sites that are full
again. You see roads that are packed with cars. It is such a drastic difference versus what was we were seeing earlier this year that, you know,
over the three-day holiday period back in May, when basically the entire country was or at least most of the country was in lockdown.
So there's encouraging news for the rest of us around the world, that in the country, that was the original epicenter of the pandemic, life is
getting back to normal, and you can see it in you know, just the visuals and the numbers.
But tourism revenue still is down. You're talking about $45.9 billion that has been spent so far. That means that fewer Chinese people were traveling,
and their average spending per tourist dropped as well by about 12 percent.
So this is basically showcasing the consumers in China and likely all around the world are basically not spending as much as they did previously,
and this is partially because people are nervous. They're nervous about what the next 12 months are going to bring, Julia, and so some of that kind
of supplemental spending, the tourism spending and whatnot is down in China and it could be a bellwether for the rest of us around the world.
[09:15:07]
CHATTERLEY: Yes, but you made a great point. Well, the stark contrast between those that are stepping up restrictions in areas like Europe, and
here in the United States, of course, the challenges remain. It's reason to be optimistic, if you handle COVID correctly.
Will Ripley in Hong Kong. Thank you for the update there.
Still to come here on FIRST MOVE, we speak to the CEO of Regeneron, whose antibody cocktail was used to help treat President Trump this past weekend.
And curtains for Cineworld. The he world's second biggest cinema chain announcing sweeping closures, but will the curtains ever rise again? We've
got the details. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE live from New York where U.S. stocks look set for early session gains as we await word on whether
President Trump will be discharged from hospital today.
The White House Chief of Staff saying within the hour that the President continues to make quote, "unbelievable health progress." Key of course for
investors along with signs that Trump's illness will jumpstart talks perhaps on further economic aid.
Wall Street set to bounce after a weak close on Friday due to those concerns. The S&P though was able to post its first gain in five weeks.
President Trump has been treated with an extensive array of drugs. The list include two experimental and a steroids treatment that at least one large
randomized study shows does help coronavirus patients, but that caused some confusion among medical expert since the drug should not be given to anyone
who is not ill enough to justify the downside effects or the potential downsides.
The steroid reduces inflammation, but in doing so can also impair the patient's ability to fight off infection.
Regeneron's antibody cocktail is one of two experimental therapies that the President has taken. The treatment uses lab created COVID-19 antibodies to
boost the immune response. It's not yet got approval from the F.D.A. The President was given a dose on a compassionate use, quote basis.
Last week, Regeneron announced that data from a late stage trial suggested that cocktail was safe and appeared to reduce symptoms and viral load.
Those results have not yet been peer reviewed.
All right, plenty to discuss. Joining us now is Dr. George Yancopoulos. He is founding scientist, President and Chief Scientific Officer of Regeneron.
George, fantastic to have you on the show once again.
I'm sure that was one phone call the company wasn't expecting. Talk me through what happened and what specific dose the President took? I believe
it's the larger that you're trialing.
DR. GEORGE YANCOPOULOS, FOUNDING SCIENTIST, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER OF REGENERON: Right. First, let me just remind you and the
listeners that my co-founder, Len Schleifer and I are both physician scientists, and we remain the only major biopharma company started and run
by physician scientists, which we believe there's a special focus on both the science and the patients.
And also that the approach that we used here for COVID-19, which resulted in the treatment given to the President is not based on some experimental
approach that's never worked before, but based on technologies that we've been pioneering here at Regeneron for over 20 years, which has led to some
of the world's most important and safest medicines fighting blindness, cancer, heart disease, allergic diseases like asthma, and including for
Ebola.
We showed that a very similar cocktail was very effective against Ebola, which is, as we all know, much more universally lethal disease than this.
So there's a lot of reasons to have confidence in this approach that was now recently given to the President and on which we just recently released
our first important clinical trial results.
CHATTERLEY: And I appreciate everything that you've said there and some of the history, too, but at this stage, we should also point out to viewers
that it doesn't have F.D.A. approval, and that you are still in the trialing stages of this.
YANCOPOULOS: Yes, it was given to the President under the F.D.A.'s compassionate use mechanism, which is an appropriate way to give medicines
at this stage to people who are in need.
CHATTERLEY: And have you heard from the President's team this weekend?
YANCOPOULOS: You know, what we hear is very much I think, what you've been hearing that he's been doing exceedingly well, and that they are very
optimistic.
CHATTERLEY: Is there any -- is there any concern from your side when you give somebody compassionate use, use of a drug like this, that when it gets
used in conjunction with lots of other things, you're never really going to know whether it's your specific drug that's helping here or just one or
many?
YANCOPOULOS: Well, I think that the President's team is able to follow certain specific markers. None of the other medicines that he's been given
whether it is remdesivir, or more recently, dexamethasone, none of them have actually been shown to have direct antiviral activity. That is, they
don't lower the virus levels directly, as opposed to the findings from our trials, which actually indicate dramatic ability of our treatment to lower
viral levels.
So the President's team will be able to follow and I'm sure they have been following viral load levels and that will them some insight as to whether
there's been a specific potential benefit from our treatment, and as, of course, we all know when you're fighting a viral disease, and it's a race
between the virus taking over and your body beating it, dropping viral levels would be a great indicator that the battle is going in the right
direction, and that the patient is winning.
So I'm sure they are doing things like following the viral levels, and that would be an indicator that our treatment is providing a benefit here. And
obviously, it would be an indicator that the patient is doing well.
CHATTERLEY: And the timing, of course, is very important here of perhaps how quickly you can take this. Dr. Yancopoulos, can I just confirm when you
got the phone call? When exactly did the White House team get in touch to get hold of this?
YANCOPOULOS: Yes, I mean, we are -- as physician scientists, we respect patient privacy, and in doing so, we leave those sorts of, you know,
questions to the patient and the patient's direct physicians to answer, we're really not. It's not appropriate for us to be commenting on things
like that.
CHATTERLEY: I understand. I'm assuming you've had a lot of requests subsequently as a result of the talk around your cocktail being used. Does
that in any way impinge upon your ability to continue to do the trials because I guess that's where you have to prioritize your supplies at this
stage?
YANCOPOULOS: Well, we have gotten requests for compassionate use for this cocktail before. Obviously, with the incredible new attention that's
focused on this, this has created a big increase. The compassionate use mechanism is not intended for widespread distribution. There are other
mechanisms such as this now highly talked about Emergency Use Authorization or EUA approach.
[09:25:25]
YANCOPOULOS: This is something that I think that society now has to think about for our treatment, whether it qualifies for an EUA for wider
distribution, because compassionate use is not the way we would give it more broadly.
But I think that obviously, if the President's team evaluated all the available agents out there and thought that the benefit risk warranted it,
that there was evidence that it might be effective, and that the risk was relatively low, I think that we have to think whether it is appropriate
that the question is answered the same way more broadly for more patients, and that we make this available under an EUA, and obviously, we have to
talk to the regulators about that.
CHATTERLEY: Can you give us a sense of how far away you are in terms of getting F.D.A. approval, because one of the criticisms that I've seen is
that actually -- and we talked about it the last time you were on the show, it's actually difficult to create these antibodies in a lab environment,
and actually, the expense of doing that even just on a per dose basis will mean that actually this won't be available for broader use, it will be
pretty specific and targeted to the number of people that can get hold of it.
YANCOPOULOS: Yes, well remember, unlike a vaccine, which is given very broadly trying to protect everybody, literally hundreds of millions, if not
billions of people; here, this is a treatment that could be targeted to those patients who are sick, so you don't have to make as much of it or to
people who are really at high risk, because it can also act as a very effective, potentially preventative or prophylactic.
But once again, you wouldn't give it broadly to everybody. You'll give it in a targeted fashion.
We've entered into a major -- we are one of the world's largest bio manufacturers. But we recognize that our ability to meet the potential need
was not enough, and we were actually approached with by somebody who is normally a major competitor of ours that we respect greatly, Roche-
Genentech, and they offered to join forces to increase production.
So we are on track to deliver 300,000 doses by the end of this year, and together with Roche-Genentech, we hope to be producing about that many,
about 250,000 to 300,000 doses a month. While the demand may even still exceed that, that's still a substantial amount that in a targeted fashion,
we believe, if the drug is really working and having the effects that we all hoped that it would, it could be doing a lot of good for a lot of
people.
CHATTERLEY: And I didn't want to push you on the politics of this, because clearly, it garnered a lot of attention over the weekend. But just in terms
of who you would select to be using this in a real world situation.
If we look at the Secret Service agents that were in an enclosed space with the President in that car, just in terms of proximity and use of this,
would you be recommending those individuals that have had exposure potentially to COVID-19 could take this antibody cocktail potentially?
YANCOPOULOS: I don't know if it's my position to recommend who would be taking it or not. I know, I've gone on the record as saying that, I think
that the safety -- we have to remember that this approach and these kinds of medicines are among the safest medicines that the world can produce, and
it seems like the very low risk of taking such a medicine warrants its utilization in settings where people are at high risk.
And I've gone on record as saying that if it was me, and I was either exposed or I was infected, I think I would definitely take it because
knowing the data as well as I know, I think that the potential benefit here far outweighs the risk.
So that's how I would answer it for myself. I'm not sure how -- I would leave it to everybody's physician to consider the data and consider whether
they want to make a compassionate use request. But as I said, that's not a mechanism to allow for widespread use to lots of people right now.
CHATTERLEY: No, I understand your point. It has to be more targeted.
And just in terms of the study, and you mentioned right at the beginning, look, you've had proven success fighting diseases like Ebola. If you could
compare and contrast the results that you're seeing even just in the early stage and I'll reiterate, this is not peer reviewed, how are they comparing
in terms of efficacy and success?
YANCOPOULOS: Well, we took both cocktails for example, the Ebola cocktail and this cocktail through various pre-human preclinical studies, including
through non-human primates, and they were both very powerful cocktail approaches that could essentially, if given prophylactically, they could
result in sterile immunity that is they could completely prevent any infection.
And when given to already infected animals, they could rapidly drop viral loads, and help speed up progress recovery.
[09:30:22]
YANCOPOULOS: That's what the early clinical trial results suggest as well. Let me remind you, for the highest risk patients, we showed that within a
week, we could drop viral levels a hundred fold compared to standard of care. I think that anybody who has this virus would want to have the help
of an immune booster that can help drop your viral levels so dramatically, because fundamentally, that's what you're trying to do. You're trying to
wipe out and get rid of the virus, and anybody who is infected can use all the help that they can get.
I should comment on the -- I heard you in the introduction, talking about giving dexamethasone, the concern that it might actually hurt the immune
response against the virus.
I'm not speaking for the President's team, but one thing to consider is if you already have our antibodies on board, which are essentially
substituting for your own immune response, and then you might not be as concerned about suppressing the immune response, because you now have an
immune response that is actually many fold more powerful than one that you might be able to generate using other approach.
CHATTERLEY: How interesting. Yes, you have to balance all of these factors. Dr. Yancopoulos, fantastic to have you on the show with us once
again, and thank you for talking us all through with this. The founding scientist, President and Chief Scientific Officer of Regeneron.
And we look forward to hearing that F.D.A. approval soon, sir. Great to have you with us.
YANCOPOULOS: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: All right, the market opens next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. U.S. stocks are up and running this Monday after a historic Pretty unsettling few days, not only here in
the United States, of course, but around the globe as we monitor the health of U.S. President Donald Trump.
[09:35:08]
CHATTERLEY: The major averages are bouncing back after Friday's losses when we first heard of President Trump's COVID diagnosis. Remember we got a
weak read as well on the U.S. jobs data on Friday, too, with job gains falling dramatically compared to the month before.
We still added jobs, of course, but it was softening based on month by month readings. The permanent job losses also are now approaching some four
million workers. The big question, will all of this help seal the deal on fresh emergency aid in Washington, D.C. Negotiations set to continue this
week.
The VIX volatility index is meanwhile ticking higher once again today and the U.S. dollar is broadly lower helping all bounce back from Friday's four
percent losses. So it was a real risk off day on Friday.
Word, however, on whether the President will be discharged from hospital later today could be key to where we end today's session.
Alicia Levine joins us now. She is chief strategist at BNY Mellon. Alicia, fantastic to have you on the show, as always. What's your read on the
market this morning?
ALICIA LEVINE, CHIEF STRATEGIST, BNY MELLON: Hi, Julia, great to see you, as always. Look, what's really interesting here is that the stimulus talks
were really dead on Thursday night of last week.
And then the President's diagnosis and then a subsequent, you know, admission to Walter Reed Hospital kind of revived the talks and put people
in a different frame of mind. Because really, there are a lot of political -- there's are a lot of political lives here that could be at risk of the
election.
And so what the market is pricing in, it's really interesting, even we're getting a nice sized stimulus bill in the next one or two weeks, or we're
going to have a huge stimulus bill because the markets are pricing in a Democratic sweep of both the White House and the Senate. The White House
needs both Houses of Congress in order to pass tax law and stimulus bills, and that's what the market is pricing in right now.
So the market sees stimulus coming either way, a nice chunk now, or something even larger in the first quarter of 2021, and that's why you're
seeing stocks rally.
CHATTERLEY: Oh, that's a bold statement. Because you could say looking at what that poll this weekend from the "Wall Street Journal" that actually,
what the market is doing here is looking at this and saying, the likelihood now is that we do see Joe Biden take the White House, so we don't have the
weeks of uncertainty for markets post the election if it's contested.
Are we really pricing in a Democratic sweep? Because that could have all sorts of implications, higher taxes, more regulation, perhaps. Are we
pricing that in?
LEVINE: That's right. And actually, it's really countervailing, so I'll direct your attention and your audience's attention to the betting markets.
I like the betting markets because they tend to be more accurate, and if you remember, in the U.K., the betting markets also predicted the Brexit
vote in 2016. The betting markets here in the U.S. predicted the Donald Trump victory.
What you saw before the Tuesday night debate was that the Senate was going to stay Republican, and the swing states were in the margin of victory --
within the margin of error for Biden. So it really could have gone either way, and we were looking at a pretty close election, but with the Senate
staying Republican, after that debate, on Tuesday night, the betting markets all of a sudden widened out and started pricing in a Democratic
sweep.
So what does that mean? It means two things: it means probably a huge fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. But it also means giant tax increases
on the order of about $2 trillion, which would be retroactive to January 1, 2021, and that would be a countervailing impact on the market.
You're looking at higher taxes on corporates, on the individual rate, on capital gains, as well as the dividend rate.
And so you have stimulus on one side, and the probability of higher taxes on the other.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, at this moment, we are suggesting that stimulus wins that argument, at least for now. Do you think the Democrats would raise taxes of
any form rather than just borrow if we're still in a recession? Because we can talk about stock markets, but if we look at the underlying economy
here, there's still a deep hole in terms of the job market, there's still big challenges. We're still in the pandemic. There are some tough decisions
to make here.
LEVINE: There are really tough decision to make here. Look, it's really clear and you brought this up in your opening segment, you know the Labor
Report on Friday really showed a slowing and we're going to have on the order of 10 million workers here permanently unemployed because those jobs
are simply going to disappear. The entertainment and leisure industries simply will not recover at a hundred percent of the original employment
rate of February.
So we really do need stimulus here to help these people as they retool and retrain and come into different industries, that's really important. The
other thing is neither Democrats nor Republicans here are too worried about deficits.
[09:40:11]
LEVINE: Rates are going to be low for, you know, maybe our lifetimes. I say that in jest, but really for the next few years, and that means larger
deficits can be funded with very low rates and very low yields.
And so neither side is too worried about debt. And so you're right, we could just borrow that as well, and it may be more palatable; both sides, I
think, would be willing to do that.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And it seems like President Trump's illness has energized his push as well towards getting something done before the election rather
than after, so we'll see. Alicia, great to have you with us.
LEVINE: Nice to see you.
CHATTERLEY: Alicia Levine, the chief strategist there of BNY Mellon. Same, likewise, as always.
All right, coming up after the break, updates on President Trump and a possible discharge from hospital. We will take you there for the latest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. You're looking at live pictures outside the hospital where the President remains, the Walter Reed National
Military Medical Center there. It comes as the President's Chief of Staff says a decision will be made today whether to discharge President Trump
from that Medical Center in Maryland there, and you can see some supporters remaining outside. We will take you there for an update.
But for now, let's get more on the President's treatments. As we discussed earlier, he has received a number of different therapies including two
experimental drugs and a steroid.
CNNs health reporter, Jacqueline Howard joins us now. Jacqueline, great to have you with us. Just walk us through all the treatments that the
President has taken because there was some suggestion that his condition would have to be pretty serious in order to require this kind of cocktail.
What do you make of it?
JACQUELINE HOWARD, CNN HEALTH REPORTER: That's right, Julia. Yes. So the three main medications that the President has been given that can give us a
little bit of insight into his condition include that experimental monoclonal antibody cocktail from the company, Regeneron. And also the
antiviral drug, remdesivir, and the corticosteroid, dexamethasone.
[09:45:13]
HOWARD: We should have a list of everything the President has taken so far during the course of his illness. But with those three medications, they
let us know that his physicians are really tackling his illness from different angles.
The monoclonal antibody therapy can help -- the hope is that it can help prevent the illness from advancing. With remdesivir, the hope is that it
can speed recovery. With dexamethasone, that's really an effort to impact inflammation.
So this is a sign that the President's physicians are really doing all they can to tackle this from different angles. And with dexamethasone, in
particular, that is typically given to patients with more severe COVID-19.
So that can, you know, let us know really about the level of concern here when it comes to the President.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it makes perfect sense. Jacqueline Howard, great to have you with us. Thank you for that update there.
Now, Joe Johns is outside Walter Reed Medical Center in Maryland for us as well. Joe, I know you've been working incredibly hard as well all weekend
and overnights and all sorts. Great to have you there for us.
We all hope that the President is recovering at miraculous speed here, but I think there is a fear that perhaps if he leaves today, it could be too
soon.
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: There is a concern that it is too soon, and there's also a concern that if and if the President is
released, he might find himself having to come back because as you know, there's that eight to 10-day window in COVID right after a person becoming
infected that you could have a real problem.
But what we are told is that the President is meeting this morning with his doctors, and they're going to make a decision about whether or not to let
him go back over to the White House. One of the biggest concerns is about medical equipment, if necessary.
As you know, the President is getting a variety of different medications. And one of them remdesivir is recommended for patients who are staying at a
hospital so that they can be monitored, because there are a bunch of different things that could happen, you know, indications that there could
be problems if this person is not watched very closely.
So the President hasn't said too much about that. What he has been doing, he has been tweeting all morning long, mostly, quite frankly, about the
election, encouraging his supporters to vote.
It's clear, the President has a lot of energy this morning, and he would love to get back to work, at least we've been told. Back to you.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, they are certainly promoting the message that Donald Trump is back in action. Joe, there was clearly a lot of debate caused by
the President's drive-by yesterday. The fear that perhaps Secret Service agents have been put in unnecessary harm.
I guess the same thing goes again, if the President currently suffering from COVID is taken back to the White House. There are implications --
health implications for those around him.
JOHNS: There are and you know, if you look at the pictures from the drive- by last night, it was essentially a political photo-op for the President getting out of the hospital. We're also told he is very bored sitting in
there watching TV, critiquing the news programs.
But if you look at the video, what you can see is, the individual sitting in the passenger seat in the front seat, is in full protective gear. Now,
that appears to be a Secret Service agent. But the concern is because they're in that enclosed space with the windows up, and the presumption is
that the President continues to be contagious, individuals in that car, potentially could also contract COVID from the President.
So a bunch of concern there, the White House has said, in fact that the people who were with the President, were given clearance to do that by the
medical team. But the President obviously is the type of individual who Secret Service agents would have a very hard time saying no to, so there's
sort of the question of the extent of the influence on the people who are guarding him and the long term health of Secret Service agents.
And as you know, by the way, Julia, there have been other examples of people working for the Secret Service, for example, at the President's
rallies who have also contracted COVID, or at least tested positive, including the President's big rally earlier this year in Tulsa, Oklahoma --
Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. In the line of duty, it seems. Joe Johns, thank you so much for that.
All right. Coming up on FIRST MOVE, the latest blow to the movie industry, why the world's second largest cinema chain is suspending its operations.
The details, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:05]
CHATTERLEY: Curtains at Cineworld, the firm which owns Regal Cinemas in the United States and a chain of movie theaters in the U.K. temporarily
closing all its locations in both nations. The decision comes after the new "James Bond" movie, "No Time to Die" was delayed until next year.
The closures will affect up to 45,000 workers.
Anna Stewart is live in London for us with all the details on this. Anna, devastating news of course, for all of those workers. The COVID issues, of
course a problem, but also no movies to lure people there anyway.
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: So many issues and cinemas like this one in Leicester Square are going to shut on Thursday along with hundreds in the
U.K. and the United States. As you say, Cineworld have said 45,000 of their employees will be impacted by this, a plethora of challenges here, all
COVID related really.
Whether it's the fact that in New York, a key market for Cineworld for the Regal Cinema chain, cinemas have not been allowed to reopen. Markets that
have like the U.K., well, consumer appetite is incredibly low.
Some people don't want to go to an indoor cinema to sit down for fear of catching coronavirus. Others are watching the pennies given all the
problems with job security at the moment, particularly looming over the next few months. And of course others are working from home. They're not
coming into town. They're not coming into cities.
Cinemas, meantime have had to cut capacity by around 50 percent to allow for social distancing measures. And then there's possibly the biggest
problem of all, there are no new movie releases, no big blockbusters, no must see movies.
I think in the decision to delay the new "James Bond" movie for the second time from this November, pushing it all the way into next year, April 2021,
I think that's another big issue for this cinema and many others out there.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I agree. And how specific is it to Cineworld? You look at the balance sheet on this one, the debt levels and there's ouch sensation
created.
STEWART: Yes, I mean, these are challenges faced by the entire sector. But there is little doubt that Cineworld entered this pandemic in a harder
position than many. It had a debt of $3.5 billion dollars on its balance sheet at the end of last year, largely through its acquisition of the U.S.
cinema chain, Regal in 2018.
That debt burden has ballooned, it's now at $4 billion in their first half year results, and little surprise there through all the cash burn they've
had.
Other cinema chains are facing challenges. This one was already on rocky ground. The big question, of course is when will they be able to reopen
some of their cinemas? Is it at the end of this year? Is it next spring?
And in a statement we have from the CEO pretty much just said, well, looking ahead is as to when the movies can release, as to when cinemas and
key markets like New York can reopen, i.e., there's just no time there yet -- Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, there's just no clarity on future reopening opportunities or arrangements and that's part of a huge issue here. You can't promise
anything if you ask for financing. Anna Stewart, great job. Thank you so much for that.
[09:55:05]
CHATTERLEY: All right, now one of my favorite stories of the weekend, the term "Proud Boys" taking on a whole new meaning, after a number of gay men
took over the far right group's Twitter hashtag flooding it with photos of their families, and messages of love and acceptance.
Proud Boy members are known for misogynistic, Islamophobic, transphobic, anti-immigration and anti-Semitic beliefs. The President, if you remember,
refused to condemn them at last week's debate.
The leader of the Proud Boys says, apparently, they're not offended by the move to swap their hashtag with gay pride, insisting that the group is not
homophobic.
I think that was a bold move. Love over hate every day.
That's it for the show. You've been watching FIRST MOVE. I am Julia Chatterley. Stay safe and we'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
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