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First Move with Julia Chatterley

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise For Second Week In A Row; Sources Say Trump To Attend Republican Voter Fraud Event; E.U. Commission Chief Warns Of Risk Of Third Coronavirus Wave. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired November 25, 2020 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Good morning. Live from New York, I'm Richard Quest in for Julia Chatterley this morning.

This is FIRST MOVE and here is what you need to know.

There are fresh record highs on the New York market as investors give thanks, the real economy still struggles.

At the same time, COVID surges as the U.S. sees its deadliest day in some six months. And Americans are preparing for a very different kind of

Thanksgiving Holiday.

In Hong Kong, restrictions abound, new ones. Bars, nightclubs, karaoke rooms are closed. COVID cases are increasing.

It is Wednesday, middle of the week. Let's make a move.

And to begin this Wednesday with initial U.S. unemployment claims for last week that came just about half an hour ago. Another 778,000 Americans filed

for benefits. It's an increase of 30,000 from the previous week. There had been expectations of a slight fall and if you look at the markets, the

final full trading day because of Thanksgiving, this is what a shortened week looks like.

The futures down for the Dow and the S&P, but the digitals and the NASDAQs, they are up. A slight pullback is expected, and the NASDAQ will push on

towards further records.

The global mixture is mixed. Investors have been in a festive mood. The Dow closing above 30,000 points for the first time ever on Tuesday. The S&P is

also at a record high, the NASDAQ is not far behind. Those are the markets.

Now, it is not only U.S. that's doing well. Other global benchmarks are having a November to remember. The Japanese Nikkei up 14 percent. It is

almost a 30-year high so far for the Nikkei at 26,297.

The London FTSE and the German DAX are up 15 percent. Hong Kong Hang Seng is up 10 percent. The DAX is not far from all-time highs as well. As you

can see, it is the -- the DAX is lagging just marginally.

Emerging markets are getting a boost from record investment flows. Many indices in Brazil and Thailand are up more than 15 percent to name just

two, and that's only on this month.

With rebounds, sharp rebounds in energy, financials, industrials, propelling the Dow to records, all three sectors are double digits so far

this month. That's the way it looks.

The drivers: Paul La Monica is here. It begs the question, Mr. La Monica, is it justified? I mean, I can see the technical reason that it is Central

Bank funding that's kept the markets ebullient but underlying trends and strains and stresses, is it justified?

PAUL LA MONICA, CNN BUSINESS REPORTER: That's a very difficult question, Richard. I think obviously right now, the big issue for the markets is that

they are ignoring the data that is going to come out for the next few weeks that will not show a picture of health for the U.S. economy -- a lack of

stimulus from the fiscal side will mean that more Americans are going to be out of work. We see that with these bad jobless claim numbers this morning.

Retail sales could potentially suffer even as we head in to the Holidays, but there's hope. Everyone is hopeful that we now have a new administration

coming in and that maybe Joe Biden will be a little bit more willing to compromise, less so or more so than President Trump has been. We may get a

stimulus deal in the New Year.

It might be a skinnier one than we would have gotten if there was the blue wave that people were predicting, but I think people are choosing to look

at the hopeful signs and ignoring the bleak reality that will be the fourth quarter of 2020.

QUEST: Okay. You see, that's the issue, Paul. I can make an argument that says from next year, we are off to the races again, and we have this minor

matter not of an awful winter with COVID, but will investors see through that?

Sure, there will be volatility as we get some bad corporate numbers, but will investors price in now that recovery that we see, or what everybody, I

mean, come on, let's be blunt here, what everybody thinks, next year is a buying opportunity.

LA MONICA: I think investors are pricing in the expected rebound in the economy and corporate profits and the job market right now, so it does beg

the question, Richard, are 2020 gains being pulled into the market at the end of 2020?

I mean, keep in mind, I mean, the Dow getting at 30,000, that's a flashy headline, but the Dow is still only up about five percent this year which

is, by no means, anything to sneeze at. That's a respectable number, but the S&P 500 is up more than 12 percent. The NASDAQ is up nearly 35 percent.

This has not been a bad year for the market if you look beyond the 30 stocks in the Dow. It's been a great year for investors, but investors are

profiting at a time when many Americans are still struggling. They're out of work and it is a very difficult time, unless you've invested or you have

a house that you're looking to sell, it's a weak economy. I mean, the housing market remains red hot, too, amazingly.

[09:05:39]

QUEST: Paul La Monica. Paul, thank you, sir. Now, sources are telling CNN that President Trump is expected to join Rudy Giuliani at a Republican

hearing in Pennsylvania today on allegations of voter fraud.

John Harwood joins me. John, this has all the possibilities of being the circus in town. I mean, what on Earth is the President and Giuliani going

to do? Now, it's all been certified, the transition' is under way. What purpose, John Harwood?

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Richard, circus is all President Trump has left at this point and I think the way to think about

this event is the President positioning himself for what he is going to do after Joe Biden takes over on January 20th.

The president, of course, has allowed the transition to go forward under pressure from Republicans, from the business community, from people within

his own administration, as a matter of fact. That's happening, but he is continuing to raise money for his leadership PAC, for future political

endeavors.

He is trying to stoke his political base in the future and that political base is going to be a source of; one, political support; and two, money to

be made by the President from members of his base.

Remember, more than 70 million people voted for Donald Trump. Many of them are willing to believe whatever lies he is telling them about election

fraud. There was no election fraud. He was legitimately defeated, but the fact he is going to make that case, is the President preparing himself for

post-presidency? He's checked out of the job of Chief Executive of the United States right now.

QUEST: And the -- I listened last night to Biden's interview, the President-elect's interview with Lester Holt on NBC. What grabbed you about

that?

As I listened to it, you know, he is very forceful, Biden, on where he is going. Less forceful on issues of the team and the balancing and the

progressives and that, and even less forceful on the first hundred days.

HARWOOD: I think the significant thing from that interview, Richard, was the President-elect maintaining an even keel, not trying to provoke a fight

with President Trump. He understands that Trump is acting out and will continue to act out all the way up through and beyond January 20th, but he

emphasized the sincerity of the exchanges that have just begun between the current administration, both career officials and the political officials

and the incoming Biden administration.

And I think because the President, the current President, Donald Trump, is not interested in doing the job of President, that increasingly, people in

the government are going to be taking their cues from the incoming administration and it's almost a transition that occurs before Joe Biden

actually takes power.

QUEST: John, final question. Look, I get the stability argument. I get the experience of the new team and all of that, but the reality is, to a lot of

Republican Trump supporters, they look at it and say, oh, yes, this has been exactly what we would expect.

He's brought in septuagenarians. He has brought in the Old Guard. He has brought back everybody -- it is not Obama 3. He answered that, but where's

the excitement in this team or maybe you don't need it?

HARWOOD: I don't think Joe Biden is looking for excitement at this point. What he is looking for is seriousness of purpose and competence. We have a

pandemic that is raging in the United States and an incumbent President who essentially has said, I don't care about it. I'm not going to do anything

about it.

He is promoting a vaccine, which is indeed on the way, and that is a good thing, but in the meantime, the spread is going unchecked through much of

the United States.

This is a President-elect in Joe Biden who says I am going to put myself on task and put my team on task of controlling that pandemic. That's the most

important thing. He's not looking for razzmatazz at this point.

QUEST: John Harwood, glad you're with us. Thank you, sir. I appreciate it.

Now, the World Health Organization says Europe is still the biggest global contributor to new COVID-19 cases. Forty four percent of all new cases last

week were in Europe and likewise, 49 percent of the deaths, despite signs that tough restrictions are starting to slow infection rates.

The E.C.'s chief says people shouldn't lower their guard now.

[09:10:34]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

URSULA VON DER LEYEN, EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT: I know that shop owners, bar bartenders and waiters in restaurants want an end to

restrictions, but we must learn from the summer and not repeat the same mistakes.

Relaxing too fast and too much is a risk for third wave after Christmas. Weeks ago, I've said that this Christmas will be different. And yes, it

will be quieter.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

QUEST: Some European nations are moving to gradually relax restrictions whilst Germany is considering tightening measures after recording 410

deaths over the last 24 hours, the highest single day death toll so far.

Fred Pleitgen is in berlin. Fred, the issue here is, okay, we'll talk Germany as well, but the issue here is, European countries, unlike the

U.S., have done so much, lockdowns, mini lockdowns, second lockdowns, travel restrictions, quarantines, the whole gamut, and yet, the numbers are

still horrible in Europe.

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, they certainly are. And if you look at Germany as an example, Richard, I think

that's really the prime one here probably on the entire continent.

We've been talking about Germany over the past couple of months, how they have had the pandemic under control. They went to lockdown measures very

early, how they started early testing and if you look at now, what's been going on in the past couple of weeks and past couple of months, especially

in the second wave, you've had countries like France, countries like Spain who have had to institute very strict lockdowns and now sort of coming out

of those.

And for the first time, the measures here in Germany simply aren't working. If we look at the numbers for instance, today, the Germans have recorded

18,636 new infections in a span of 24 hours. That's a thousand more than on Wednesday last week.

So for the first time, Angela Merkel who has been managing this crisis so well and who is really an example also in Europe as well seems to be, I

wouldn't say on the ropes, but certainly under some sort of pressure.

Right now, she is debating with her state governors here as to how exactly they can get out of this. One of the things they're going to do -- and this

is something that's going to be very, very devastating, especially in the run-up to Christmas for businesses here in this country, especially the

restaurant business, for instance, is that the light lockdown they have is going to continue throughout pretty much all of December.

December 20th, there's going to be some stricter mask mandates in schools, but also the amount of people that you're allowed to conglomerate with is

going to be restricted as well -- Richard.

QUEST: Fred, simple question then. Have they failed because people aren't following them? Have they failed because they weren't strict enough?

PLEITGEN: I think it's a mix of both. I think there has been a little bit of corona fatigue here in this country, a little bit of fatigue towards the

pandemic measures and if you look at, for instance, last week, Angela Merkel and the state governors, they were not able to make a decision.

So, all they did was recommendations for people to meet with fewer people, to go out less, not to go on trips that are unnecessary. It doesn't seem as

though most people followed those rules and as a result, you could see that the numbers in Germany, while they aren't going up or they haven't been

going up at the rate you would have seen a couple of weeks ago, they certainly aren't going down as well.

And that's one of the things that the German government has said that they wanted to avoid. They wanted to not have to do new measures frequently.

They wanted to, at some point, go into a lockdown that works and then come out of it at the right time.

The big thing right now they are saying they want to do is obviously try to save Christmas to make sure that people can spend it at least in a smaller

circle with their families -- Richard.

QUEST: Fred Pleitgen in berlin. Fred, thank you, sir.

Now, concerns that Thanksgiving in the U.S. could become what doctors are now calling a super spreader event. Millions of Americans were on the move

as the country sees its highest COVID death toll for a single in more than six months.

Rosa Flores is at Miami Airport. Two questions, Rosa. Firstly, obviously, I can see it's looking quite busy, but secondly, why? Why? Why? Why are

people ignoring the C.D.C.'s call to stay at home this year?

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, I have asked that exact question to multiple passengers and they say that they want to go see their

families, Richard. And you're exactly right, the C.D.C. is recommending that Americans not do this, but take a look around and I'll show you,

there's a lot of people here this morning.

We saw the number of passengers pick up at about 9:00 local time. You see that a lot of these individuals are wearing their masks. Some of them are

also wearing face shields.

According to officials here at this airport, they are expecting 621,000 passengers to crisscross this airport within a 12-day period that they

consider the Thanksgiving Holiday travel period. Now, that's a decrease, Richard, of 59 percent compared to last year, but that is still a whole lot

of people.

If you look around me, and I should add, what medical experts are saying right now is that the way that this virus is spreading in America, it's

individuals that are hanging out indoors and it is younger people who are asymptomatic who are then transmitting the virus to older individuals.

That's the big worry, Richard. These older individuals that are more susceptible.

QUEST: All right, so Rosa, if you and your camera man look back at that line of people that are waiting to check in. So here you have -- it is a

great airport in Miami. I know it very well.

Here you have a low ceiling, lots of people within short distance of each other, even though they are masked, even with ventilation and air-

conditioning, it's a recipe for real problem.

FLORES: And you said it best at the beginning when you tossed to me. Some individuals, some experts are calling this a super spreader event:

Thanksgiving in the United States because exactly like you mentioned, and if we take another look, you'll see the floors are marked for social

distancing. Some people keep a little bit more distance than others. But lots of people in line.

Millions of Americans are expected to crisscross airports across this country and you and I have traveled a lot, Richard. We all know that you

handle your bag, you hand over your either passport or your driver's license here in the United States.

You use the bathrooms; you go and buy something to eat. There's a lot of places that are also very high contact. Of course, airports are taking a

lot of measures. They are trying to clean these surfaces over and over.

You see that some of the signs also say "facial covering required here;" in the State of Florida, it's not required, but at the airport, they are

requiring travelers to wear face masks. So measures are being taken, but again, a lot of Americans not following the guidelines by the C.D.C. --

Richard.

QUEST: Rosa. Rosa Flores there in Miami. Thank you, Rosa. I appreciate it.

Now, these are the stories making headlines around the world. It is a rare case. A dog in Hong Kong has tested positive for COVID-19. The city is

warning people to stay vigilant despite imminent hopes of a vaccine as the number of cases grows.

Kristie Lu Stout is on the story for us and breaks down the latest numbers.

KRISTIE LU STOUT, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: On Wednesday, Hong Kong reported 85 new cases of the coronavirus, the highest daily total since

early August and the city is taking action.

Now, starting on Thursday, all bars, nightclubs and party rooms will be closed for a week. Restaurants must limit the number of customers to half

their capacity and no more than four diners are allowed to sit at the same table.

A COVID cluster has emerged involving dance studios, so mandatory testing is in effect for anyone who has visited infected dance rooms since the

start of the month.

In her policy address today, Hong Kong's top leader, Carrie Lam revealed that some of China's COVID-19 vaccines are reserved for Hong Kongers, but

warn that the community should remain vigilant despite the promise of an expected vaccine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARRIE LAM, HONG KONG CHIEF EXECUTIVE (through translator): As the research and development of vaccines take time and the epidemic situation remains

unstable and may persist for a period of time, we need to prepare at all times for the next wave.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STOUT: In this city of 7.5 million people, the total number of COVID cases stands at 5,867.

Kristie Lu Stout, CNN, Hong Kong.

QUEST: Still to come on FIRST MOVE as we move on this morning, Thanksgiving, Americans have been urged to stay safe and not travel. We

speak to some of the millions who are ignoring the doctor's advice as you saw there at Miami Airport.

An industry devastated by pandemic, the CEO of Crunch Fitness says gyms are being wrongly categorized as public places. The CEO is with us on this

program this morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:22:05]

QUEST: Welcome back. It is FIRST MOVE. Richard in for Julia.

More Americans are filing for first time unemployment benefits again; another 778,000 did so last week. The expectation was it was going to fall,

the number, not rise.

Not, it is not souring the mood for investors. U.S. futures pointing to a quiet open after recent rallies propelled the Dow to 30,000 for the first

time.

Notably, support for the Dow has come not from tech names that's enjoyed a stellar run since the beginning of September. Apple is actually down 14

percent. Microsoft is down six percent. And Intel is down 7.5 percent.

Lisa Shalett is the Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and joins us now. Good to have you. Thank you for joining us.

Now, the undercurrent here, the undercurrent of the market to continue rising, admittedly, it's the S&P and Dow hit 30,000. What is that

undercurrent? Is it just vaccine euphoria?

LISA SHALETT, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT: I don't think it's just vaccine euphoria. I mean, we had a recession that

started in March, and we've been in a V-shaped recovery, really, ever since we saw the gargantuan stimulus response from both the Fed and Congress.

We had outstanding numbers coming from manufacturing, coming from durable goods orders, coming from pick-up in global trade, coming from housing, and

you know, while the vaccine is certainly, you know, shed a light at the end of the tunnel and suggests that we may be able to put this global pandemic

behind us somewhere in calendar 2021, the reality is that Americans, as well as, quite frankly, consumers in other countries like China, have

actually been saving during this period, having forgone spending on consumer services.

And our view is that there's an unbelievable amount of pent up demand. So next year, we're looking at U.S. GDP that's probably going to grow in real

terms at almost six percent and with inflation, and maybe as much as eight percent or nine percent.

QUEST: So whilst we navigate direct investment advice, the choice for investors, large and small, is really this. Do you buy in now at frothy

levels, but buy in because you believe mid-next year onwards, it really goes up like a rocket or do you wait until you get over what's going to be

a very difficult Q4-Q1?

SHALETT: So our advice to clients is always to be averaging in. This idea that we can somehow time the market and that we're going to know that the

news flow is going to get better in December or January or February has always proven foolish.

There's always the things that we didn't anticipate whereas the market has fully discounted them all. And so, our advice to our clients given that we

want to be fully invested for the year 2021 is to be dollar cost averaging in, opportunistically buying on days when the tape is weaker and we have

opportunities to get in, but we are ready to go --

[09:25:32]

QUEST: Now, can I just -- Lisa, can I just interrupt, because it's always good to just take a second, I believe, to help understand investment

strategies, if we may.

You use the phrase that maybe some of our viewers won't be so familiar with, averaging in. Could you give us a little bit more 101? When we talk

about averaging in, what do you mean?

SHALETT: So let's assume that we want to be fully invested by January. Well, between now and then, there's about six weeks and let's say we have

$1,000.00 to do that. Every week, we would be deploying one sixth of that $1,000.00 to get us there.

So we're going to divide our savings into equal chunks and just really, in a very disciplined way, reach our destination.

QUEST: That is fascinating. Finally, the environment is infinitely better now, not wishing to denude in any way the personal suffering. Do you worry,

Lisa that the gap between the real economy and the economy in which you work, the markets, is getting to the point where ordinary people may start

to seriously question the ethics and morality of market capitalism?

SHALETT: Wow, so that's a very big question. So certainly, I would address your question in two ways.

Look, there is always the risk in an environment of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy that we can confront financial bubbles and

that's one of the reasons why we, at Morgan Stanley are constantly, constantly talking about valuations and what the drivers of valuations are.

And in the current environment, watching the level of interest rates is critical because it has played a huge role, these low interest rates, in

helping support high valuations.

And so we want to pay attention to financial bubbles. We don't think we're there yet, but we want to be hyper-vigilant.

The second part of your question which is, are there elements of the disconnect between the market and Main Street around the extraordinary

disparities that we see in our society whether they be wealth disparities, social justice disparities, health outcome disparities?

I do think it is leading to a transformation of the conversation around capitalism and I think we're moving -- the pendulum has probably swung to

the extreme of shareholder capitalism that has driven us for the last 40 years and the concept of stakeholder capitalism is beginning to gain some

visibility.

And stakeholder capitalism, as you well know, by your question, you know, is really and it's had to make CEOs and CFOs and treasurers of public

companies accountable to their employees, to their communities, to their countries and to be, you know, much more robust in their strategic thinking

about their impact on the world.

QUEST: Thank you. Lisa, I'm glad we got to talk about that because of the difficult times when we're in, one can't ignore them.

Thank you, Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, I appreciate your time this morning.

We will have the market open. It is going to open in just a minute from now. This is FIRST MOVE.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:32:31]

QUEST: Welcome back. It is FIRST MOVE and the U.S. markets are opens ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Tomorrow, they are closed and then shorter day

on Friday.

And it's exactly as we expected. The two major indices, the Dow and the NASDAQ are down. The NASDAQ with a record, and the record high on the Dow,

30,000, well, everyone is taking a bit of a pause. It is more about turkey than trading.

A mixed muted first couple of moments on the main indices. Food for thought: the latest number of initial jobless claims, 778,000 Americans

filed for first time benefits last week, that's an increase of 30,000 on previous weeks so that makes a question of what's going on there.

U.S. public health officials say people should not travel for Thanksgiving. The warning to stay at home so you don't end up in hospital by Christmas.

Air travel in the U.S. though has just hit a weekend high for the pandemic era.

Pete Muntean joins me from Reagan National Airport that is in Washington, D.C. just I said. We talked to Rosa Flores who said people are flying. The

airlines. The planes are getting more full, but at much lower capacity to begin with.

PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: That's right. You know, air travel is still cratered compared to a year ago, Richard.

You know, things are just getting going here at Reagan National Airport and in airports across the country. Just yesterday, about 900,000 people passed

through security at America's airports. That means about 4.8 million people have flown since the C.D.C. issued that warning to not travel and that

number could be pushed up by about a million more today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MUNTEAN (voice over): Caroline Osler says she could not stay home anymore, so she took a coronavirus test and boarded a flight home to Kentucky for

Thanksgiving.

CAROLINE OSLER, TRAVELING TO KENTUCKY: I think at some point, it's just -- it's too hard to stay away from family, especially for the Holidays.

MUNTEAN (voice over): It is the rationale of 50 million Americans according to AAA who will travel by plane, train or car this week. The new forecast

is only a 10 percent decrease from last year's pre-pandemic levels. But AAA thinks the actual number could be even lower, as coronavirus cases surge.

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control said to cancel Holiday travel.

YASMINE DEHGHANI, TRAVELING TO CONNECTICUT: I understand the risk that I'm taking, but I want to see my family.

MUNTEAN (voice over): Passenger levels are already starting to rise again and set a new record of the pandemic on Sunday.

This past weekend was the busiest three days at airports since travel cratered. Major airlines are gearing up for more passengers and adding new

flights for the first time since March.

Airline industry groups say they are not encouraging travel, but they are not discouraging it either.

[09:35:14]

NICK CALIO, AIRLINES FOR AMERICA: I think it's perfectly ethical. We would not fly people if it were not safe.

MUNTEAN (on camera): Airlines feel empowered by new research that says cleaning like this, plus heavily filtered onboard an airplane and everyone

wearing a mask keeps virus transmission rates low.

DR. LEONARD MARCUS, HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: It's a layered approach.

MUNTEAN (voice over): Dr. Leonard Marcus is on the team of Harvard virologists who study the air inside airliners. Their findings that being

in a passenger cabin is may be safer than a grocery store, but Marcus cautions travelers to plan every step of their trip to reduce risk door to

door.

MARCUS: Everyone has to make a decision about their own personal risk. It's a very personal decision.

MUNTEAN (voice over): Airlines are starting programs to test passengers for coronavirus, but only on limited international routes.

For Caroline Osler, that means taking another coronavirus test before gathering around the table for a Thanksgiving like no other.

OSLER: I think it reaches the point when you have to decide what's best for yourself and how you can best protect yourself and those around you as

well.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Pete, I don't get it. And forget the planes. The planes are safe. I get that people aren't concerned with that. I don't get this thing, the

C.D.C. says don't travel, and you've been speaking to people who basically say, I want to go see my family, therefore, I know better.

MUNTEAN: It is so hard for people to break their Thanksgiving traditions, Richard. And even the T.S.A. data supports that. They say that really not

all that many people are cancelling their trips.

You know, today could be big, but Sunday could be even bigger. That's when the T.S.A. thinks everybody who has left for the Holiday could be coming

home all at once.

QUEST: Pete Muntean, thank you, Pete, joining us from Reagan National.

The airlines continue to count the cost of the pandemic. IATA, which is the main body of course says the industry is set to lose $157 billion this year

and next, 80 this year and more next year.

I spoke to the Chief Executive of Dutch Airline, KLM, who were the hosts for IATA. Pieter Elbers was cautiously optimistic about a vaccine and what

it means for aviation.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PIETER ELBERS, CEO, KLM: From my view, it's a little premature today to decide precisely who and when we should be vaccinating. I think governments

are still deciding what is going to be the exact flow or sequence, procedures and so on, so forth.

But again, to have the vaccine in place is going to be a very big step forward for our industry.

QUEST: Is the future essentially either you've had a test or you have a vaccine certificate and the logistics, really, Pieter, is how you gain the

integrity of the system, isn't it, so that the vaccination certificate is lodged somewhere, the tests are lodged somewhere -- the whole common pass

or travel pass issue. How far can we go with this, do you think?

ELBERS: Well, it's going to take some time. I think this COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated how difficult it is to have a uniformed and a unified and

a harmonized set of rules and measures all over the world and after nine months, in fact, we're still dealing with different rules and different

regulations, country by country.

But I think, even with the vaccines, we will be dealing with some sort of different rules and regulations, but again here, what's importantly is that

we restore the confidence of our consumers, of the travelers, and the combination of vaccination and testing really would help us to move

forward.

QUEST: Do we have a level playing field in aviation? When I look now at some airlines like your own and Air France, your sister company, you've got

billions from various governments in forms of loans and grants. Lufthansa, the same, and the state-owned carriers of the Gulf.

And then you've got those like Air Canada that will happily tell you they didn't receive a penny from the government, well, unhappily tell you they

didn't receive a penny from the government or IAG or British Airways and the like.

Have we got a level playing field for a competitive environment in a post- COVID airline world?

ELBERS: Well, obviously, the COVID situation has completely turned upside down the entire industry and every country is trying to deal in the best

possible way with it.

I think, within Europe, the level playing field being ensured by the fact that the European Commission has defined a set of rules and a framework in

which such support from government by means of loans and guarantees should be matching in. So that framework should eventually guarantee that level

playing field.

Having said that, we can see that a lot of different rules and measures are taken country by country and with that, it is sometimes very difficult to

compare exactly what's being done where and what's the final impact on that.

But then if you see the staggering losses of the industry, it's obvious that the industry needs support to overcome this devastating impact of

COVID-19.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Pieter Elbers, CEO of KLM and this is FIRST MOVE.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:43:15]

QUEST: While New York City is warning of new coronavirus restrictions in the next fortnight and that includes the closures of gyms. Overall, a

statewide positivity stands at 2.9 percent.

The Gym chain Crunch Fitness is arguing the risk is very low, according to own figures which we've been unable to verify. Since September, over a

million members checked into its gyms in New York, Florida, and California. There were only 21 reported cases of COVID-19. That gives a positivity rate

of 0.00191 percent. You see the number on the screen.

Jim Rowley is the CEO of Crunch Fitness. He joins me now. Sir, I get your argument. But it doesn't look likely that it's going to find favor in New

York. Is it your understanding that it looks likely that gyms will close or be closed by the government?

JIM ROWLEY, CEO, CRUNCH FITNESS: Good morning, Richard. Thank you for having me. It is our understanding that there's some likelihood there, but

we also are watching the data very closely and we're hopeful that we'll get through the weekend and we'll remain open next week.

QUEST: So you have an entire variety of measures. I have to confess, I have not been in one of your gyms, but I've been in others on both sides of the

Atlantic during the pandemic.

The measures that you've taken are fairly extraordinary, but you say that they are working. Why is that message not getting across?

ROWLEY: Well, I think there's fear over facts right now. The fact that we are classified with restaurants and bars, I think, is the most significant

problem and that's creating fear in the media and so forth.

By the way, just to update your stats, we've got back to June. We've done 19.3 million workouts with only 88 reported cases. Some of those reports

were self-reported and others have been reported by Health Department officials directly to us.

We were able to contact trace. We were able to hold our members accountable because they are private membership clubs, so there's -- it is beyond the

cleaning and safety plan. We have got a lot of measures in place to ensure the safety of our team members and our members.

[09:45:22]

QUEST: The one thing I always notice is, gym users don't always wipe down the equipment before and after. I can even talk about my own experiences. I

make a good faith effort and then somewhere along the line, I forget. I mean, for example, if I am on a treadmill, yes, but if I had just done one

dumbbell set, do I have to wipe all the dumbbells? Or you know, it is very difficult.

ROWLEY: I can tell you that the member behavior has changed dramatically. You've got to realize too, most of the members that are working out now are

very active and very healthy, they're conscious of the safety measures in place.

There are also members policing each other, kindly, and we have floor ambassadors that are ensuring that if something doesn't get wiped down,

we're wiping it down for them.

QUEST: Jim, if you look at the business now, obviously, you, like everybody else has put in place necessities of liquidity raising and the like. Do you

believe you have now sufficient to get you through what will be a difficult winter?

ROWLEY: Well, I think difficult is the right word. It's going to put an impossible strain, not only on my company but on my franchisees and on the

entire industry. I think that's the biggest problem is what if the experts got it wrong, an entire industry collapses under its own weight with the

rent obligations and suffers from the fact that we can't be open?

I believe that we'll make it through. We've done our forecasting into 2021. It's going to be tight and if we close down again in Manhattan, it may be

beyond difficult, but we're going to survive. We're going to do what we can.

The problem is in order to survive, I've had to furlough thousands and thousands of employees and that's to the detriment of the entire workforce

and the economy.

QUEST: There is no easy solution. I get this, and everybody does and you understand, the Solomonic judgment that officials have to make between

opening and closing and do you want to be the one who has to take that risk? But in terms of your business and your franchisees, I mean, do you

believe come mid date next year, you're effectively going to be rebuilding the network?

FOWLER: I do. And I believe that unfortunately, due to the demise of some of the larger fitness companies and their bankruptcies and closures, and so

forth, it's created opportunities for us.

So in their wake, we'll be opportunistic if we can get through this winter, if we can get into the spring with some momentum. That's the big

opportunity.

And look, it is not lost on us that this is an impossible situation for the mayors and the governors and so forth. We're just asking them to just look

at the facts and the facts state that we are not a problem, we are not the spreader and this idea that bars, gyms and restaurants became easy to say

and that now is reality. That is a real problem. That needs to be addressed.

QUEST: Let's keep in touch over the rest of the year and into next year, sir, if we may, sir, so that we can monitor what's happening and report

accordingly. I appreciate your time, thank you.

ROWLEY: Thank you, Richard. I appreciate your time.

QUEST: This is FIRST MOVE. More to come.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:50:29]

QUEST: It has been a horrid year for so many people including anyone in aviation, which of course, we talk about frequently and the times have been

the worst in its existence. Some optimism is returning.

In our new series Think Big, the President of Emirates, Sir Tim Clark says business travel is set for a major rebound.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN BUSINESS EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: When does business travel get back to normal or is it going to be defined as a new normal

that's probably 25 percent or 30 percent less than you had prior to the pandemic?

TIM CLARK, PRESIDENT, EMIRATES: No, I would say the converse. What has happened is that as a result of being locked down, as a result of having to

engage in the networks that you see, whether it be -- whatever -- I saw it in the mid '90s when we digitized the global economy and all these tools

came to market. The digital world, the age of information came along and everybody said, you know, what's going to happen? We're not really going to

travel anymore. We won't want to do this. And actually, we can do much more of what we wanted to do over the --

The converse happened. Between 1995 and 2015 to 2018, the demand for business travel grew exponentially.

As we get back to normal, as the economy strengthen, as cash starts flowing back into businesses that have been affected, you'll forget all of it, as

we always do. We'll start to see business travel bounce back and we'll see it grow. It will not slow down.

DEFTERIOS: You know, you had a $5 billion swing from profitability to loss in the latest quarter. Can you get to profitability in the first half of

2022 as a carrier then? As a group?

CLARK: I think we will start seeing a rapid return to cash positivity during the course of '21, again, the back half. I would say in the

financial year '22 and '23, that's when you'll see the airline getting back to profitability and generate the cash that it needs to meet the

obligations that it has and then we can then continue our plans for fleet renewal, for network expansion with some of the new aircraft. The tools

that we need to start opening up new points.

That will happen in '22, '23, '24. So all right, I may be out by six months, but in the past, we generally got it right when we take an

assessment of what's likely to happen, and in the end, you plan for that, action your whole company resource on that plan and hope that it comes as

good as I think it will.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

QUEST: Before we go, as they say, before you go, another look at the U.S. markets and we'll have a break from tomorrow due to Thanksgiving. So, best

to savor all the action while we can.

Well, there you have it, two down, one up. The NASDAQ towards a record. It appears investors are taking something of a pause after the breathless

rallies that have taken the historic Dow to 30,000, not it has just come back under once again.

The initial jobless claims went up for a second straight week. Paul La Monica, we started with him and end with you, Paul.

It is interesting now. The markets basically, I mean, everybody is on a quiet day today, but the trend is still there. Look at the NASDAQ. That

tells us what we need to know today.

LA MONICA: Yes, I think what's interesting, Richard, is that we've had this alternate kind of viewpoint on Wall Street where every now and then,

investors seem to say, you know what, Big Tech is over. We're fleeing the FAANGs, we are going to rush back in to the recovery stocks, the airlines,

the hotels and what have you and you see the Dow and S&P 500 up or the NASDAQ.

But today, Dow and S&P 500 are slipping a bit. NASDAQ getting another bid. So, I think, you know, investors just can't quit Big Tech yet. They still

are infatuated with the growth prospects of the companies like Apple and Netflix and I don't think anything is going to change in 2021.

Yes, there might be a need to have new market leadership, but these companies, they're still going to grow pretty dramatically, I think, next

year, regardless of what's happening with the broader economy I would suspect.

QUEST: Okay. So the jobless claims numbers, aberration, two months in a row, more added? Do we just sort of say, well, these numbers are so

volatile, even with a mini trend, it's still unreliable?

[09:55:07]

LA MONICA: I wouldn't go that far. I mean, I think, yes, it is true that these are weekly numbers that are volatile and subject to revisions, but we

had now two weeks in a row going up and what's the constant here in the two weeks, oh, yes, we don't have any more stimulus from the Federal

government. We're probably going to need that or this is going to be a rough winter where we could see jobless claims continue to spike higher.

QUEST: Paul La Monica, thank you, sir. I appreciate it.

A reminder of the markets as I leave you with the markets. That is it all for FIRST MOVE for today.

Two down, one up. No trading tomorrow. We'll be here, of course with FIRST MOVE, and I'll have "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" for you five hours from now.

Time to go and get a bite of breakfast, otherwise, whatever you're up to between now and then, I hope it's profitable.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:00:00]

END