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First Move with Julia Chatterley
U.S. Receives Russian Response to Security Proposals; U.S. Futures Near Session Low as Ukraine Headlines Weigh; Federal Reserve Mapping out its Tightening Path; Firms in Ukraine have Contingency Plans for Conflict; Driverless Taxi Service Opens to Public in San Francisco; Soon: Blinken to Address U.N. Security Council. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired February 17, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: Live from New York, I'm Julia Chatterley. This is "First Move" and here's your need to know. False flag
fears NATO warns Russia could be staging a pretext for an attack on Ukraine. Skating scandal Kamila Valieva falters at the Olympics amid her
drugs controversy and faster Fed St. Louis Fed President James Brian Bullard joins to give his take. Its Thursday let's make a move.
Welcome to "First Move", this Thursday, a day where the world fears the escalation not de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis, NATO is warning again
that it sees no sign Russia's pulling troops back from the Ukraine border warning to have a so called false flag operation as a potential pretext for
Russian aggression.
In the meantime, the business community watches and waits. We'll be joined by the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine to discuss
the impact on confidence and investment.
And in the meantime, uncertainty in Europe certainly weighing on global investor confidence to U.S. stock market futures, as you can see are lower
and European bosses losing ground to amid cautious trade during the Asia session.
Also, the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting actually helped stocks bounce. On Wednesday, they showed that while the Central Bank is
poised to tighten interest rates more aggressively if required to tame inflation.
They were less panicked overall at least two weeks ago. Those minutes were failed well before recent comments from the President of the St. Louis
Federal Reserve, James Bullard, who said he's open to a half a percentage point rate hike in March, and has argued that the fed's credibility is at
stake if it doesn't move more quickly he will join us later in the show to discuss his views. So a faster moving fed and a fast moving "First Move"
begins now.
Let's get right to the drivers escalation, not de-escalation. The United States sees evidence on the ground it shows Russia is moving towards an
imminent invasion of Ukraine. It comes as intelligence from the U.S. and UK suggests another 7000 troops have amassed on the Ukrainian border in the
last 24 hours, despite the Kremlin's claims that some forces had been pulled back.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LLYOD AUSTIN, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: And the Russians say that they're withdrawing some of those forces now that exercises are complete. But we
don't see that. Quite the contrary, we see them add to the more than 150,000 troops that they already have arrayed along that border, even in
the last couple of days. We see some of those troops edge closer to that border. We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them
sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Meanwhile, both Ukrainian armed forces and Russian backed separatists report renewed shelling in the Donbas region. And back in
Brussels, NATO is concerned Russia is looking for a pretext for invasion.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JENS STOLTENBERG, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: We are concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine. This is the
reason why we are so closely monitoring what is going on and also why NATO allies have exposed the Russian actions the Russian plans and the Russian
efforts when it comes to disinformation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And in the next hour, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is set to address the United Nations. And we've just learned the U.S. has
received a response now from Russia to its written document delivered three weeks ago, laying out what the U.S. calls a "Diplomatic path forward".
CNN's Nic Robertson joins us now from Moscow. Melissa Bell is following the NATO meeting for us in Brussels to both great to have you on the show. Nic,
to you first I think what stood out for me there most of all was we're back to using this word imminent.
I saw comments from the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations this morning. The quote was the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving towards
an imminent invasion. We're back there once again. Nic, your context, pleases.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, let me just give you a bit of context as literally come into us in the past couple of
minutes here while we've been on air here. This is coming from the State Department. They're saying we can confirm that Russia has expelled the U.S.
Deputy Chief of Mission the DCM to Russia Bartle Gorman.
[09:05:00]
ROBERTSON: Gorman was the second most senior official. That the U.S. Embassy in Moscow in diplomatic terms that is a very stiff rap on the
knuckles, from Russia of the United States and clearly States in diplomatic terms, that there is a significant amount of displeasure with the position
that the United States is taking.
As you say, we're going to be hearing from Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the UN in the coming hour. And this certainly seems to be
although we are still awaiting further details on this, but it certainly seems to come in the context of the United States.
Essentially saying and others, of course, saying that Russia is indeed not drawing down its forces, as it says it is. Or at least, it is not something
that the United States and allies at NATO can verify this time and either British Defense Secretary seemed to imply using a Russian word this morning
to say that Russia was in fact lying.
So that in terms of where does the diplomacy stand, we just heard from the Russian Foreign Minister this morning saying that Russia remains ready for
diplomatic engagement. However, he sort of raised the bar even further on that saying that Russia's core demands about NATO not allowing Ukraine to
join NATO, going back to 1997 lines. That was an issue that had to be tackled before anything else.
Russia, he also said that Russia would be making public what it has sent back in its written response to the United States. We don't know the
details of what was sent back in that written response from Russia at the moment.
But if the diplomatic language around this is to be read correctly, there will not be well, there's going to be a lot of difficulty in that letter
for the United States, because the diplomacy around it as the number two at the mission here in Moscow, the U.S. mission has now been told to leave by
Russian authorities.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, Nic, that's where I was going to ask you because I know you're literally reacting to that news, as it breaks. How would you expect
the Americans to respond to that now? Because clearly, given the backdrop, given the situation, everybody wants to be very careful here in terms of
response, but what kind of response would you expect?
ROBERTSON: Typically, when such a thing happens, there can be a tit for tat response. But this is not typical conditions. This is not a typical
situation. I think the tensions are particularly high.
There will be a diplomatic message of some description, of course, I would expect U.S. officials at the State Department and beyond to pause and
consider before making their next move, just because the current tensions are high. But it's not out with the bounds of possibility that a tit for
tat measure would be incurred.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's a vital important point. Melissa, come in here because what we also heard from the NATO Secretary General this morning is
that warning the concern about the risks the prospects of what we call false flag operations, perhaps a pretext on Russia's behalf to in some way,
find a reason to attack Ukraine at this moment. Just give us more contexts on that to particularly in light of the delicacy of the moment that we find
ourselves in now.
MELISSA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Particularly delicate moment. You're quite right, Julia. What Jens Stoltenberg was responding to was the question
about those Russian reports today of increased hostilities in the Donbas area.
And of course, he explained that it was the fear on the part of NATO allies that this might be such news of such hostilities against Russian backed
separatists might be considered a pretext for an invasion.
And this is a scenario that they'd written in advance that they've been warning about for months. And Jens Stoltenberg was asked immediately after
that, explaining that it was because of that fear of disinformation and the way it might be used that NATO allies had been so forthright, so open,
unusually so with sharing their intelligence.
He was asked immediately after that answer about those efforts about the fact that, as you mentioned, for weeks now, the United States, but also
NATO has been warning of an imminent attack has been sharing intelligence in a way that is most unusual.
And he explained that it was precisely because Russia had formed it was because Russia had been massing its troops. And it was also because Russia
had been fairly plain when Vladimir Putin warned back in December, that if its guarantees were not met were not satisfied by the West, then it would
resort to military technical means, for all those reasons explain the Secretary General of NATO.
[09:10:00]
BELL: NATO had reason to believe that Russia might act and that it might act in that way, hence the warnings that it's been giving for weeks
regarding this. So keeping a very close eye there, he said on what's happening in the Donbas region and what noise is coming out of Moscow with
regard to that.
We also heard, of course, as you mentioned, from the American Defense Secretary, who's now on his way to Poland, and then on to Lithuania, well
he be meeting with NATO allies, who also spoke of those troops, as we heard, inching towards the border with things like blood supplies?
And as a soldier, he said, I know that this does not mean that troops are retreating, but rather that they're preparing to stay. And he quoted the
words of Harry Truman the President of the time, the creation of NATO saying.
Look, just because peace is difficult, it does not mean that war is inevitable, really urging both Lloyd Austin and Jen Stoltenberg at the end
of these two days of meetings of NATO Defense Ministers urging Moscow to sit down and talk really saying there is still time for dialogue, even at
this extremely tense time when everyone fears the worst Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's vitally important words. Nic Robertson and Melissa Bell, thank you for that. And of course in the next hour, we'll be hearing
from the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and we will bring that to the moment he begins speaking.
For now, let's move on. Tears and tumbles on the eyes. Just a few moments ago with a controversial Russian Figure Skater Kamila Valieva Eva finished
fourth in the women's individual event at the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Amanda Davies joins us on this. Amanda, a huge question was, if she lands in the medals, no one gets a medal until they've discovered what the
situation is. That question at least is resolved but heartbreak for her clearly.
AMANDA DAVIES, CNN WORLD SPORT: Yes, Julia. If there was something of an uncomfortable feeling heading into this morning, and the second session of
the women's individual skating event in Beijing 2022 because 15-year-old Kamila Valieva had failed a drug test, and yet was still able to compete.
I can't tell you how uncomfortable that feeling is now having seen what played out on the eyes in Beijing today. The irony of the fact that as a
15-year-old, she was allowed to compete and was not sent home from these games, because she was seen as a protected person.
A minor should not be lost because what we watched was a 15-year-old who earlier this week had talked about being emotionally tired with what she
had gone through. It didn't seem to affect her on the ice on Tuesday in her first event, the short program, but today, a skater who up to this point
had been faultless heralded as one of the best if perhaps not the best in the world ever for what she was doing on the ice.
It just went horribly wrong and she stumbled on more than one occasion, she landed on her bottom on the ice sheet to credit picked herself up, carried
on but finished her routine in tears and really was devastated at the end of the day.
She finishes in fourth place. So as you said those question marks about what it means for any medal ceremony have been removed. But it is two of
her fellow athletes from the Russian Olympic Committee Anna Shcherbakova, reigning world champion who finishes in gold medal position, Alexandra
Trusova who finishes in silver medal position, a fellow athlete from the Russian Olympic Committee.
And then Japan's Sakamoto, who takes the bronze. But I think all in all, anybody watching for those who were there inside the stadium, a really,
really sad day for figure skating for the Olympic movement. And the questions now will ramp up there that this is not the end of the story
about child protection as to the rules about doping at the Olympic Games. It was a horrible moment to sit and watch.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. Irrespective of what's going on to want to give the girl a hug. She's a 15-year-old girl. Amanda Davies, thank you so much for that.
OK, straight ahead on "First Move" the cost of doing business in Ukraine? We'll look at the obstacles facing multinationals. Plus small talk with
your taxi driver no longer necessary the company putting driverless cabs on the roads of San Francisco. That's all coming up. Stay with us.
[09:15:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". U.S. Futures continue to point to a lower Wall Street open. Futures falling to session lows in fact, in the
past few moments on news from the U.S. State Department that Russia has expelled the Deputy U.S. Ambassador to Russia as we mentioned briefly
earlier on in the show.
The U.S. also saying Russia is moving towards an "Imminent Invasion" all this amid a backdrop of continued uncertainty over the Fed's response to
rising inflation. The latest Federal Reserve miniature policymakers split on how to withdraw support and over what time horizon?
But inflation data released since that meeting has even at some investors to speculate that the Fed could raise interest rates by half a percentage
point in back to back meetings. Just for context if they did that it will be the first time that's happened since 1994.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the U.S. Central Bank's credibility is at stake if it doesn't act forcefully. Bullard voting member
of the FOMC has said he's open to half a percentage point rise in March and wants to see a full percentage point of hikes by July. And I'm pleased to
say he joins us now.
Jim, welcome to the show. You are very welcome as always, I have to say you alarmed if that's the right word investors in recent days, arguing for
quicker tightening. Since then, we've had even more alarming pricing data, both consumer prices and producer prices. Is that one percentage point hike
by July, even enough in your mind at this stage?
JIM BULLARD, PRESIDENT ST. LOUIS FEDERAL RESERVE: Well, I'm not investor alarm. You know, we're not trying to keep you know, everyone calm. I guess
at every moment, I think what we want to do is pursue the best policy that we can and let the market adjust let the market price appropriately.
And we have high inflation in the U.S. headline CPI inflation, running at 7.5 percent over the last year. If you want to throw out food and energy
and go to the committee's preferred measure of inflation. I now think that that will be above 5 percent in the next report about 5.2 percent I'd say
on PCE inflation less food and energy.
So this just means that we're missing our inflation target on our preferred measure by you know more than 300 basis points.
[09:20:00]
BULLARD: And policy is still at rock bottom lows as far as interest rates, and we've got still asset purchases going on. So this is a moment where we
need to shift to a less accommodation. And the debate is about how fast to do that?
I've suggested that a good target would be to have the funds rate or the policy rate up at about 100 basis points by July 1st. And that does mean
where we would have to move faster and more nimbly than we have in recent decades. But I think that's probably the appropriate policy.
Now, we need some risk management in case if inflation does not moderate in the second half of this year, in which case, the Fed would really be - I've
said in previous interviews in a pickle in the second half of the year, if, inflation doesn't moderate, and we still have this extremely accommodative
policy in place.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I was going to say, I didn't mean to suggest alarm was a bad thing. In this case, actually, I think consumers are really alarmed by
what they're seeing. And the response is required, and some might say, especially pickled, rather than in a pickle at this current juncture.
Have you had any luck convincing your colleagues about the prospect of needing perhaps even at a half point rate hike in March? Are you still an
outlier?
BULLARD: Well, we'll have to see, markets are pricing, I think about 50 percent probability right now. But I'm not saying that. That's necessarily
what we have to do. I think, you know, I've laid out these 100 basis points by July 1st.
And let the chair manage the committee and the expectations around that appropriately. He's very good at that. And, and but I do think it's
important to get moving. And that's I do think it's important that markets understand that necessity of the Fed's move here.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, I was checking this morning, and I think he's around 60 percent priced actually, I'll take your word--
BULLARD: Thank you so much.
CHATTERLEY: --rather than mine. But the point is, the markets doing some of the work for the Federal Reserve here in that it's sort of pricing, how
important is doing what the markets pricing and following through versus doing what actually what should be done?
BULLARD: Well, fortunately, yes, markets have done a lot of the pricing already, the two year is up substantially since last October. That's
helping us a lot, and I think that's, that's great. And then I think our follow through will also be appropriate. That would be the appropriate
policy.
I mean, one thing I guess I'd like to say here is that, you know, a lot of people say, well, if you raise rates, you're risking recession. No, I don't
think so. I mean, come on, this is just the very first in a series of moves, there will be a point in the future where we'll have to make a
judgment about how far is too far.
But this is just talking about the very first moves from an extremely accommodative policy that we use during the pandemic. And, you know, I
don't think those first moves are very likely to tip the economy into recession, I'm still expecting 3.5 to 4 percent growth this year in the
U.S. economy. And I think labor markets will get even tighter than they are right now.
And they're some of the tightest labor markets we've seen in a generation. So I think we're in good shape on the real economy. Unfortunately, this
inflation is eating into wage gains for low and moderate income households. They're noticing that and they're saying that their purchasing power is
going down. So we'd like to provide some relief on that by keeping inflation under control.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, we're talking about 4 percent annualized growth economy record, or near record quick rate of people for jobs, jobs are plentiful,
if you can find the right people. Larry Summers, the Treasury Secretary said yesterday, you should quit QE, because obviously the Federal Reserve
is still buying bonds tomorrow. Do you agree?
BULLARD: Well, the thinking on that is that this has already been drawn to a close and will end in March. I think even if we did that it would be as
symbolic and token effort at this point.
CHATTERLEY: That it would see a message?
BULLARD: It would send a message is something we could consider but I think that committee has looked at that it was mentioned in the minutes that came
out yesterday.
But the judgment was to just go ahead and let the program and but I do think it's a bit of a juxtaposition here to have these kinds of inflation
numbers and us still with the asset purchases going on but it just shows you how fast the events are moving with respect to the economy and the
committee is going to have to similarly move quickly in response to the data.
[09:25:00]
CHATTERLEY: Is it juxtaposition? Or is it just to your point, and you've made it already a real danger for the Feds credibility?
BULLARD: I'm concerned that we react appropriately in this environment. And I think we're, our credibility is more at risk than has been at any time
since I've been in the Fed and 30 years. So you know, but I'm confident in the chair and the committee that will come to the right conclusions in the
end, and we will be able to keep inflation under control. But it does require us to move now.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. What's the fear? Just because you mentioned it and the discussions are being had or if you look at what the markets are pricing,
then there's a risk that they move too fast. And we go into recession, it's like, hang on a second, look at the data, look at consumer confidence, look
at rising prices, to your point, the impact that that's having, Why hold back, Jim, what is the fear?
BULLARD: You'd have to ask others about that. Why we wouldn't go ahead at this juncture? I think I have very strong arguments. And, you know, I hope
I'm able to carry the day here.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, you're right. I am asking to one person.
BULLARD: But I'm only one person on the committee. So that, you know, I think that you know, you just have to ask others what their key concerns
are.
CHATTERLEY: But they're not afraid of the market?
BULLARD: I'm not.
CHATTERLEY: Do you think there you are.
BULLARD: Yes. I mean, markets generally been way up in, you know, during the pandemic, and asset prices are off their all-time highs, but they're
still quite high, and housing prices have gone way up and household wealth has been way up.
So I think, as far as asset holders in the economy, they've done very well through this period. And even if there was a reprising there, I think that
they'd still be in pretty good shape considering the last two years.
CHATTERLEY: You know it's fascinating; you raise a really important point. And we've talked about it in the past, you and I about asset price,
inflation and bubbles or bubbliest, and I look at some of the asset price shifts that we've seen, whether it's in some of the memes, stocks, or even
crypto currencies.
And in the past six months, there will be people, given the peak to drop that we've seen that lost way more money than they can afford. And easy
money, perhaps excessive risk taking and exuberance has fueled that, do you think the Fed needs to take some responsibility for that at this moment,
too?
BULLARD: Yes, I mean, low rates do feed into a certain amount of exuberance, you can borrow money to do things that, you know, might be more
questionable than then they would be at higher interest rates. So I think that sort of behavior will get shaken out here to some degree. But I'd be
mostly concerned about housing. Housing market has been very equaling.
And there's been also I think, the pandemic causing a shift of demand towards single family homes, and people wanting to sort of invest more in
the places that they're spending more time. And the demand part is OK, but to the extent this is overpriced, we got into a lot of trouble in 2007 to
2009, by having an overpriced housing market that had to correct.
And that caused a lot of problems, because those are leveraged assets. So I think we want to be very cautious on that dimension. And that, again,
brings up this issue about, you know, the purchases of asset, mortgage backed securities, and aid to the housing market in an environment where we
really didn't really need to be providing aid to the housing market.
That came from early in the pandemic, when there was a concern about that, but the concern has been not been warranted.
CHATTERLEY: Jim, I think we've gone full circle on this conversation and it ties back to the calibration of policy response and not letting things go
too far. Good luck sir. And I never thought I'd say that about interest rates. But good luck convincing your colleagues and I'm sure we'll talk
again soon, great to chat to you as well.
BULLARD: Great. Thanks for having me.
CHATTERLEY: Jim Bullard. Thank you, the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve there. Stay with "First Move", more to come.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Moments ago U.S. President Joe Biden addressed the situation in Ukraine as he left the White House for a trip to Ohio. Let's just listen
in.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: --more troops up, they've moved more troops then number one. Number two we are reasonably
that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is we're prepared to go into Ukraine attack your
friend, number one.
Number two I've been waiting for response from Putin for my letter, my response to him come to that - on to see the - to hear - spending here. I
have not read it yet. I cannot comment on it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: --to this point to happen now?
BIDEN: Yes. Not my sense is to happen in the next several days.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is there any diplomatic paths still available?
BIDEN: Yes there is. That's why I asked Senator - Secretary Blinken to go to the United Nations and make a statement today he'll lay out what that
path is. I've laid out a path to Putin as well. I think Sunday. And so there is a path there is a way through this.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you going to call Putin?
BIDEN: I'm not going call Putin. I have no plans to call Putin right now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: So that was President Joe Biden there just leaving the White House just to reiterate some of the words and lines that he gave there.
There's reason to believe that Russia is engaged in false flag operations. They believe that there is every indication to believe they are prepared to
go into Ukraine to attack Ukraine.
So a real sense of that heightened tension this morning as the president was leaving the White House there any further headlines on that we will
bring them to you. For now let's move on. The Ukrainian government trying to avoid internal panic and that's vitally important for an economy that
relies on foreign investment.
Those decisions are based on access to international financial markets and also the strength and stability of a national currency. Many of America's
biggest companies are there, especially in agriculture, consumer goods and technology. A conflict of course would leave them exposed but also factor
in the potential damage to sectors such as insurance, aviation and tourism.
[09:35:00]
CHATTERLEY: Andy Hunder the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. He says many of his members have long held emergency
contingency plans. Andy fantastic to have you with us I do want to talk about what you're seeing in terms of investment and what your members are
saying.
But first, I just wanted to talk to you there at the American Chamber of Commerce, how were you and your colleagues doing? And are any of those that
are foreign, talking about leaving wanting to leave how sentiment there?
ANDY HUNDER, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN UKRAINE: Well, business is resilient. And we're seeing that the business leaders and the
general managers here in Ukraine, I mean, they're there, that's half cookies.
We as the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, we are continuing operations, we are in regular contact, daily contact with our members with
Ukraine's government and the U.S. Embassy. And we are - there's something we've been doing for the last 30 years. And we're seeing that the members,
the companies are continuing their operations in in Ukraine, they've invested over $50 billion so far.
They're employing 400,000 people, and they're really keeping the economy ticking over. Obviously, business contingency plans are in place. They've
been many of these business contingency plans have been in place for years. Now they're being reviewed regularly on almost on a daily basis now.
The big issue is obviously cyber, and then very detailed contingency plans in terms of hibernation, relocation evacuation, but also what we're seeing
is more and more white collar and blue collar employees are saying, you know, we're not going nowhere, we will stay to protect, to defend our
community, our villages, our city, our country. And that's something we're seeing across the board.
But as you say, I mean, it is very much I mean, we just spoke with one company today, they have a vessel in the Port of Odessa, which is due to
depart over the next few hours, it's been loaded with 70,000 tonnes of corn. And a lot of this agriculture is feeding, you know, many countries
across the world.
So I think it is also the supply chains across the world that that continues. But generally, I think, you know, we are, the business is
resilient, it's united, probably the biggest challenges that the businesses are facing here on the ground is actually communicating with head office
with their regional office, because the apprehension is extremely high when you read in Western media.
And the mood on the ground is slightly more serene, I would say it is karma, the moods and what we see on the streets of cave, in the companies,
they are continuing, obviously, again, I reiterate that the contingency plans are in place. But it is something that many of these companies these
higher risk have been seeing for the last eight years, ever since Russia invaded and loss of Crimea and Eastern parts of Eastern Ukraine in Donbas
and Luhansk.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's exactly what I was going to ask you, because we just showed some of your members and these are huge businesses with big
operations. They've been in Ukraine and operating for longer than a decade so they have the experience and the example of what happened with Crimea in
the invasion in Crimea back in 2014.
I know, it's difficult to compare and contrast in the run up to that, but how does this feel differently, if at all, and when you're talking about
the contingency plans? And when they're reviewing those plans? What do you mean by that? What's the difference?
HUNDER: Yes, I think the difference here is clearly 2014, it was much quicker, it sort of happens and there was less time to prepare. Whereas now
I think for the last number of months, or for at least a couple of months, we have been seeing, you know, the apprehension, the tension, and the
preparation.
So but I think at the same time, it is, you know, having these this resilience and being prepared, but again, at the same time understanding
that the businesses do continue, you know, we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. We don't know what's going to happen over the next couple
of days or the next couple of weeks.
But I think it is having, you know, the resilience and the continuity plans, and its different sectors. I mean, we talk about agriculture,
Ukraine is a big player globally for agriculture. We talk about you know, cooking oil, it's the number one in the world for exports of sunflower oil,
so the fish and chips and the crisps that are being fried all across the world more likely than not some of that cooking oil is coming from Ukraine.
[09:40:00]
HUNDER: The corn some countries 50 percent of all that corn comes from Ukraine. So the cornflakes Europeans are eating tomorrow for breakfast, but
not only, but also for animal feed. So this has a wider implication.
But not only agriculture, I think we've seen that information technologies, Ukraine is really booming in this sector, in IT, over 300,000 professionals
working in the IT sector, keeping you know, businesses, especially in the U.S., turning over with the banks and companies.
CHATTERLEY: I actually saw a tweet that you sent out about that, which I thought was fascinating. I just want to mention, I know its government
forecasts, but that Ukraine's IT sector could be 10 percent of GDP by 2025, which I think would be incredible. And we can talk about that again.
But it does tie to the point that you made earlier about the cyber risks. I have around a minute left, how concerned are your members about the cyber-
attacks that we've seen, particularly the latest one, just in the past weekend? And how protected are they?
HUNDER: Well, obviously, it's a C-suite issue. So cyber is a key concern. I think, you know, we are checking on a regular basis in terms of any
vulnerability in terms of all kinds of IT hygiene and making sure that the systems are in place, you know, we are in regular contact with experts that
are providing cybersecurity advice.
But it is and I think, you know, in terms of IT, you know, as you mentioned, that is a sector that that that is really booming and picking
up. But, again, it's being prepared, because we saw the cyber-attacks on two of the largest banks that day before yesterday, and this has a knock on
effect on the confidence, the haven yard so far, you know, it's been relatively stable.
It did take a bit of a knock since the beginning of the year devaluation of around 5 percent. But so far, we see that the National Bank is keeping it
pretty much stable. And I think that that's what we're hoping for, for the future, because the reserves are far better than they were in 2014.
So, you know, the various sectors, you know, the agriculture, the IT the manufacturing, much of the manufacturing in the automobile sector, is
coming from Ukraine, and various other sectors also. So I think the cost is Russian aggression over the last eight years.
There was a recent report out literally last week, and it's putting out a tag of about a quarter of $1 trillion and $280 billion is the cost that
Ukraine is paying. Ukraine's economy is paying due to this Russian aggression. And I think that is something you know, we are here really to
keep the economy going to keep it running.
And I think you know, we're very grateful to the companies that do believe in Ukraine that are here. And that they continue to stay here. And I think
now it's really waiting for that rebound. Hopefully, we'll have clarity soon, where we go from here, and hopefully Ukraine will be able to have a
rebound to the economy and share, you know, some of these good opportunities with many other new Investors.
CHATTERLEY: Andy you're certainly doing a good job of promoting it. Fingers crossed and stay safe. Please. Thank you for joining us.
HUNDER: Sure.
CHATTERLEY: Great to get your insights. Andy Hunder the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. OK, coming up on "First Move" a
self-driving taxi service, taking to the streets of San Francisco and catching the eyes of some major investors more after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". If you're out at 2 am in San Francisco, you may be lucky enough to cruise home in a driverless taxi.
Cruise, the self-driving subsidiary of General Motors has launched its Robo taxi service to the public in parts of the city.
The company has already received $10 billion of investment from firms like Microsoft, Softbank, and Walmart. And last month GM's CEO Mary Barra said
it's looking to sell personal autonomous vehicles by the middle of the decade.
Kyle Vogt is Co-Founder and Interim CEO of Cruise. And he joins us now. Kyle fantastic to have you on the show so just so that my viewers
understand, if you're in San Francisco, you have access to the app, and you're really lucky between the hours of 11 pm and 5 am, I believe, you can
basically get a self-driving car home.
KYLE VOGT, CO-FOUNDER & INTERIM CEO, CRUISE: Yes, I mean, this is a brand new technology. So we're starting really slow and gradual. We're rolling
this out. So but as of right now, like you said, if you have access to our app, which right now has a pretty long waitlist, you can pull out your
mobile phone, say where you want to go.
And no kidding, a car will show up right in front of it'll pull over to the side of the road and stop with nobody inside whatsoever. You can hop in the
car, push start ride, and after you buckle your seatbelt, it'll take off and whisk you away to your destination.
It's a truly magical experience. And I think one that, you know, all of us working on self-driving cars and thinking about the future of
transportation have imagined, but it's here for the first time in a major U.S. city.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, some might not call this magical. Some might call this absolutely terrifying, Kyle frankly, but we'll talk about that. Did you
actually have one person get in and fall asleep? By the way and actually they had to be woken up at their destination remotely?
VOGT: Yes, that's right. I mean, one of the reasons we're starting slow and rolling out, you know, with a few hours and a few regions of the city is we
didn't know exactly what to expect when people start using this. But you know, the first few minutes of this ride, people will realize that this car
actually drives really smoothly, perhaps as good or as better than you would in terms of comfort.
And one of our first passengers on the first night, after a few minutes, I kind of was nodding to the side and then fell asleep. And of course the car
doesn't know this, it keeps taking it to your destination. And so it pulled over in front of is this person's house. And the customer service agent
remotely got a ping saying, hey, there's still someone in the car.
And they connected over the speaker and said, you know, hey, are you there, and he sort of woke up really abruptly and got out of the car. But that's
one of the many little things we want to learn about and make sure we can nail before we roll this out to larger scale and make it available to more
people.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, that's where you need an eject button to be pressed at mission command - I'm joking. Mary Barra, the CEO of GM, I mentioned in the
introduction there talked about not only the ride hailing, but also providing these as being able to be sold to the market by the middle of
this decade as autonomous vehicles.
Is that the plan on what's going to happen between now and then in order to achieve that ambition?
VOGT: Yes, look at Cruise is working on self-driving cars. The reason all of us are doing this is we think it has a massive potential positive impact
on society, whether it's, you know, making all these vehicles electric or one day being, you know, far safer than we humans could be, and giving us
back a lot of time. And that's going to start with Robo taxis. That's our core business model for the next few years.
But it also makes sense eventually to move that into where our customers are? Some customers where people that drive cars may not want to ride in a
Robo taxi so we want to meet them where they are, and eventually have this technology available in a vehicle that you can go out and buy.
And I think that's going to be really profound and increase the positive impact of this technology and really just make people's lives a lot better
to not have to sit in traffic if you don't want to, you know to be able to push a button and sit back and not have to necessarily monitor the car like
some of the system on the road today.
But truly not need to pay attention maybe turn around in your seat and talk to people whatever it is. There are a lot of opportunities out there when
you put this in vehicles that people can own.
[09:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, there's so many questions about having the right amount of data in order to make this safe on the road, even if perhaps the
driver of this vehicle or the autonomous driver of this vehicle is safer than an individual, how does everybody else on the road react and respond?
But actually, my question would come down to cost, is this going to be less expensive, perhaps than hailing an Uber or driving yourself and what about
the cost itself of the vehicle? Do you have any sense at this stage? I only asked because Mary Barra also said you could be generating $50 billion in
annual revenues by the end of the decade that you must have some sense of where the costs of these things are going to come in?
VOGT: Yes, for sure. I mean, if you think about it today, though, when you're using a ride hailing service, you're paying for a chauffeur to carry
you around. And so that's you're essentially paying, you know, someone's full time wage to move you around, or at least a piece of it.
And so, you know, when we introduce technology that can do that driving, not only can we provide a really, you know, smooth experience, you know,
other positive things like you don't have to get into a car with someone you don't know.
But when you remove that, that cost of having to have a human in there sitting there, just you know, chauffeuring you around the city, you can
take the cost much lower, and the technology, you know, over time will get really inexpensive. And make it we think to the point where a lot of people
may choose to actually use an autonomous, driverless, rideshare service, instead of owning their own car, it's a lot easier and a lot less headaches
to do that.
CHATTERLEY: Are you good friends with - for Uber? I think he's probably--
VOGT: --dark, yes.
CHATTERLEY: OK, just checking. What about Tesla?
VOGT: Well, there are a lot of people thinking about, you know, autonomy and Robo taxis for the same reason, it's a massive impact, we haven't seen
a shift in how people get around like this, you know, probably in the last 100 years.
And so the opportunity is there not just to make a better, you know, a better experience for people and all our vehicles are electric, so better
for the environment. But it's also a massive business opportunity. So a lot of people have their eyes on it.
Because there are a few times when a very few times in history when a new technology comes along. And it's just like fundamentally better, lower cost
and good across the board. And that's what we have here with driverless cars.
CHATTERLEY: Data safety regulators, and all these things going to come together in the next two to three years in your mind to allow you to expand
beyond a little subset of San Francisco.
VOGT: Sure. I mean, we've worked really closely with regulators, particularly in California, the Department of Motor Vehicles, California
Public Utilities Commission, to make sure they understand this technology, what it's capable of, and what its limitations.
And also, we've been careful to introduce it to the public gradually. So there's not as much shock by something new. And, you know, again, like once
you actually try this, you're blown away by how smooth it is, and great the experience it is. But before that there's a lot of apprehension and a lot
of questions.
So we think it's important to be proactive with regulators know that and let them know what's coming. And so far, we've seen a pretty good response
and look forward to continuing to work with regulators to bring this technology to more places in the U.S. and then also internationally.
CHATTERLEY: You know, I read that this was your dream since you were a teenager. I think you're very sedate for someone who's achieving their
dreams. It seems that that when you talk about it, the actual experience that you light up, so I can see that you're having fun doing something that
you love. Kyle, good luck, comes back and talk to us soon please, we look forward to having to know your progress.
VOGT: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: Thank you, Kyle there, the Co-Founder and CEO - Interim CEO of Cruise. You're watching your "First Move", stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:55:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". U.S. stocks no surprise opening sharply lower his concern grows over an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine.
U.S. President Biden said a short while ago that Russia could be "Engaged in a false flag operation with the intent to spark a military conflict".
Biden warned that Russia could launch a military action against Ukraine "Within the next several days". This despite Kremlin claims that they are
beginning to withdraw forces from the region.
In the meantime of the U.S. State Department confirming Russia has expelled the second highest ranking official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow Bart
Gorman. The U.S. calls this an "Escalatory step and says it's considering its response".
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken set to address the UN Security Council here in New York in just a few moments time this as President Biden
sees the Russian attack is possible in the next several days. I reiterate that so we will be watching his words very closely.
As I mentioned, the Secretary of State Antony Blinken set to address the UN Security Council in the next hour. And we await that and we'll bring that
to you live as it happens. Stay with CNN for the very latest on the Ukraine crisis. And that's it for the show. I'm Julia Chatterley, you've been
watching "First Move" and we'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
