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First Move with Julia Chatterley
House to vote on Landmark "Burn Pit" Exposure Bill Next Week; Ukraine to Introduce State of Emergency; U.S., EU, UK Impose Limited Sanctions Against Russia; EU to Join U.S. & Allies in Unveiling Russia Sanctions; CNN Poll: Half of Russians Support Use of Force. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired February 23, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
JOHN BERMAN, CNN HOST: Not enough but a step I learned from you.
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNNHOST: Stepping in right and John is making a right step. CNN's special coverage starts right now.
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: Live from New York, I'm Julia Chatterley. This is "First Move'. And here's your need to know high alert
Ukraine declares a state of emergency amid warnings of a full Russian invasion.
Presidential pressure Putin - still open to dialogue yet offers little room for compromise. And China criticism Beijing sees Western sanctions won't
solve the crisis. It's Wednesday. Let's make a move.
I will welcome to "First Move' once again. Good to be with you for the next hour as the world tries to decipher what Vladimir Putin is thinking and
what his next move will be. In the meantime, moves are being made in the West.
After days of urgent calm, the Ukrainian government announcing plans for a nationwide state of emergency and urging citizens to leave Russia
immediately, Russia now also reportedly recalling diplomats from Ukraine too.
This follows an array of sanctions measures announced by the United States the UK, Germany and Australia. The EU expected to formally approve more
this our general consensus however, those measures overall have far more bark than bite with leaders choosing to keep more stringent measures in
reserve, should Putin push further.
Now despite the headline risk losses actually are relatively constrained for U.S. stocks yesterday down as you can see there around 1 percent across
the board at least for the S&P 500.
But it is enough to see that index closing in correction territory so down 10 percent from the most recent highs, that's the first time since the
Pandemic began nearly two years ago. Let me give you a look at what we're seeing for futures today.
They are higher at this stage. European stocks also gaining as you can see after a positive Asian close to not even the Russian Moex stock market is
managing to eke out a game.
Remember I showed this to you yesterday, just for context that market remains down some 14 percent. So far this week, of course it's only
Wednesday, perhaps helping broader sentiment and stock stabilize a softer oil market.
Take a look at that, Brent crude pulling back after almost touching $100 a barrel intraday yesterday. Brent, however, is still trading at levels not
seen since late 2014. All right, just moments ago, Ukraine's President warned that the future of European security is currently being decided.
He spoke as the European Union prepares to unveil new sanctions against Moscow following similar measures by the United States and its allies.
Russia, though, does not appear to be backing down President Vladimir Putin posting this video message earlier.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT: Our country is always open for direct and honest dialogue for finding diplomatic solutions to the most difficult
problems. I repeat, Russia's interests in the security of our citizens are non-negotiable for us.
Therefore, we will continue to develop improve the Army and Navy ensure that their efficiency increases and that they are equipped with the latest
technology.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Nick Paton Walsh joins us now from Odessa in Ukraine. Nick, great to have you with us, I think there is at least as much as the last 12
hours is concerned a heightened sense of tension and an expectation.
But again, I come back to the discussion we were having yesterday, this ongoing ambiguity over whether or not troops have crossed the border into
some of these breakaway or separatist regions. And as you said to us yesterday, it's a spurious argument anyway, because troops are already
there. Has anything fundamentally changed on the ground in your mind?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: It isn't still clear, as you say if new Russian uniform troops have gone in since the order from
President Putin that defense ministry should protect the newly recognized separatist areas of eastern Ukraine. That is utterly key.
The UK Foreign Secretary said it was ambiguous. We've had Western officials certainly saying they were looking at images. And we heard yesterday from
the White House that they believe the beginning of an invasion was underway and invasion is an invasion.
But when isn't invasion and invasion, we still don't know, at this stage quite how that will be calculated. But I think this is all about trying to
suggest that the wheels are in motion for a broader Russian Military move.
The problem really is that until those new troops masked on the border move into Ukraine, we are still at a point where we are in the lead up to that
and the sanctions we saw yesterday were pre-emptive.
Certainly to some degree, some will be very cutting the cancellation or certainly the lengthy delay of Nord Stream 2 will hurt Russia hard. Some of
the other things may have been possibly factored in by the Kremlin.
But as you say, this 24 hour period, a very key change in the rhetoric care sort of 24, 48 hours go Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talking
about how he didn't expect a large Russian invasion.
[09:05:00]
WALSH: But now we look set to see a state of emergency introduced around the country and reserve is called up from yesterday, so important changes
in the tone here in Ukraine. And I think concerns across the country, even far out in the west here in this strategic port city of quite how
widespread any Russian move could be.
And Kyiv really is what Vladimir Putin is saying. Diplomacy is something that the U.S. still contemplates, it seems. But at the same time, he says
he's so open to talking about it.
Yet, he makes these bizarre comments about Ukraine seeking nuclear weapons today about how Russia has the very best weaponry, and made that lengthy
nearly hour long speech outlining essentially a case, why it will be alright for in his mind for Russia to move in to get rid of the NATO threat
here in Ukraine.
And so that has many people, I think, deeply concerned about the scale of what could be to come. The fact of the matter so far today are still
confusing in terms of how far Russia has gone.
You would have thought that they would walk into those separatists areas with a degree of sort of fanfare, or at least announcing their public over
presence after eight years of doing everything covertly there, but that hasn't happened yet.
And indeed, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self declared Donetsk People's Republic said recently today, in fact that the troops had not come
in at this stage. They might if Ukraine attack. So the question really is timing.
Now, how much longer does Putin intend to leave sort of nearly two thirds it seems of his own more of his land forces in that border area in sort of
primed tactical formations.
Western efficient I spoke, he said, he can only do that for a matter of days. Does he leave them there and then send parts of them home feeling he
may have got something he wanted or terrified people here in Ukraine enough?
Or do they actually have to start moving? It seems pretty clear in western capitals. They know what they think they know what's going to happen, but
only one person really does. And that's Vladimir Putin in that 57 minute speech he gave, he did not seem like he was done here.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, willing to back down in any sense of the word to your point when it's an invasion and invasion, the degree of sanctions suggests
that we're still waiting for it on the part of the West.
Your point about Nord Stream 2, I agree with you aside, that's got bite. But what we also had yesterday was the fact that the U.S. Secretary State
Anthony Blinken, now not going to meet with the Russian Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov, this week.
I think, to your bigger point here of what the next move will be from Putin and what we're waiting for here. Are there any reasonable hopes that there
is a path forward here for diplomacy in light of what we're seeing, hearing or perhaps not seeing more importantly.
WALSH: Again, that really comes down to whether what Putin has been looking for all along is some diplomatic showdown, a bit of respect, as he would
think from his western counterparts.
And then he backs down, but the Minsk agreements, which were being potentially revisited here or finalized, they're pretty much dead.
Certainly, Russia thinks that and really, Ukraine could never talk about that sort of conversation, again, given Russia's recognized those breakaway
republics.
So that's one avenue kind of shut down. The broader U.S. Russia discussion about some strategic deal, it does seem pretty clear, with Secretary
Blinken canceling his meeting in Geneva, that he is unlikely to have some sort of massive overarching deal with the Russians, given they've already
considered the invasion here to have begun sort of the gun being held to Ukraine says having it sort of finger on the trigger.
And so the question is, is there some sort of thing that Putin has been searching for, he does clearly want some sort of promise that Ukraine won't
join NATO. He considers Ukraine different to all the former Soviet republics.
He clearly does want some wider promise from the United States, they might roll back their presence in Europe, I mean, you know, that is just not
going to happen. So it does seem like the possibility of a practical diplomatic outcome where something is agreed that's real and tangible that
solves this crisis is on the back burner at the moment.
And that leaves the fear being that we are heading into what people have been wanting for four weeks, an invasion. That sounded preposterous when
frankly, it was first briefed by Western intelligence officials such a crazy thing to possibly imagine occurring, that we might see a version of
that or a lesser version of that.
Or possibly, whatever form it takes some kind of Military escalation here, involving all those troops on the Ukrainian border, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Nick, great to have you with us. Nick Paton Walsh there, thank you. Now the separatist's leader of one of the two breakaway regions in
eastern Ukraine says there are no Russian troops there right now.
But he says they will come if Ukraine attacks. Satellite images show a continuing Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border. Fred Pleitgen is on the
Russian side of the border for us now. Fred, you and I can debate what the separatists leader said there in light of what Nick was just saying about
the presence long presence of Russian troops in the separatist regions.
[09:10:00]
CHATTERLEY: But I wanted to ask you what evidence you're seeing if any of preparation for more concerted action? And what about the ordinary people
that you're meeting now there? What are they saying about what they're seeing, reading hearing?
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi there Julia, yes, I mean, Nick obviously already elaborated on it for quite a bit in his
answer there. But the people that we're speaking to on the ground, it's really quite interesting because we managed to speak to some folks who had
to leave the Donetsk People's Republic went to leave some of those separatists areas and then went into Russian territory.
Of course, you'll recall that at the end of last week, the separatist's leader, leaders in both of those republics said that they were evacuating
some of the civilians, especially women and children, we were able to speak to some of them last night.
And they said that they did witness some shelling over the days leading up to their evacuation. But they also said that they, they really hoping that
things go back to normal, they're really hoping that there is no wider war.
A lot of them said that, yes, they do have some anger towards the Ukrainian authorities, they do have some anger towards the Ukrainian Military, but
certainly not to their neighbors who are on the other side of the front line. And they certainly don't want a wider war.
However, on the ground, what we were seeing there yesterday, and to a certain extent, also today, as well is there are a lot of Russian troops
that are amassing on that side of the, on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, which now of course, is those which are the separatists
Republic's that Vladimir Putin has now recognized.
And those forces seem to be in a posture right now where they could strike any time. And that's a big difference to what the U.S. says they had been
seeing in the weeks leading up to all of this.
At the beginning, forces - brought in from all parts of Russia, then they were in bases, but now you're really seeing them on the side of the road,
you're seeing soldiers inside their vehicles of waiting and seemingly at the ready.
And that's something that, of course, has the U.S. extremely concerned. And increasingly also the Ukrainian government are very concerned as well, with
them now, talking about the state of emergency with them drawing up the reserves as well.
You see Russian troop concentrations in many places here across the border, it's quite interesting, because today, we're actually traveling along the
border of Russia and those separatists republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
And there are actually areas where you don't see any Russian forces at all. But then you do see concentrations in certain areas, it's a very large area
that we're covering. It's a very large area where you do have those Russian forces.
And it certainly does appear as though that build up is continuing and is getting stronger, with some reports also saying that there's now a big
field hospital, it's going into operation as well, a little bit north of where I am right now, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Fred, great to get your insights. Thank you for joining us, Fred Pleitgen there. Now as we've discussed Russian aggression met by
Western sanctions, so far, the U.S., UK and EU have issued sanctions against several Russian banks, sovereign debt and some Russian elites.
Here's what President Biden said on Tuesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT: As I said last week, defending freedom will have cost for us as well and here at home, we need to be honest about that. But
as we will do, but as we do this, I'm going to take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted to the Russian economy, not
ours.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Anna Stewart joins me now, Anna, great to have you with us. Germany, I think stands out as the one as we discussed yesterday that took
really pointed action with the suspension of the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
But I think the general consensus on the rest of it is far more bark than bite and powder, dry powder is being held in reserve.
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Yes, and in terms of the bark, though, we have to remember that this was at least a clear bark, and it was like a piece of
bark, it was heard it was a real show of unity, I think, for Western allies.
And so actually, despite the fact that the sanctions were quite limited, that certainly plays into Western allies favor, Russia may have been
surprised at the unity that we saw there. But you're right, these sanctions are very much like an opening salvo.
They're really targeted and limited. They're looking at targeting oligarchs, only a handful many of whom actually have already faced
sanctions before by one or more of the Western Allies. Smaller banks added up quite a few of them up largely those with direct links to the Kremlin.
So we're not seeing the bigger institutions that you might expect at this stage.
But the most damaging Nord Stream 2, as you mentioned, from Germany, and that was a very brave move that was probably, you know, really the biggest
stick they could hit Russia with.
And it's one that has huge potential fallout for Germany, given their reliance on gas. The other the U.S. decision to actually place further
sanctions on Russian debt, they're building on what they put in place in 2014.
The problem is Julia since 2014, with the illegal annexation of Crimea, Russia has really built up its financial position. It's got really a war
chest and actually, we just had news from the Russian finance ministry saying their reserves are more than double their plans net borrowing for
this year, which is $27 billion.
So in terms of actually making a dent in Russia's economy in terms of sanctions we're going to have to see a lot more.
[09:15:00]
CHATTERLEY: And what might that a lot more look like, Anna?
STEWART: Well, there are several options on the table. And listen, what we heard from European leaders and from Joe Biden the U.S. President, yes, it
was very much they know this is the opening salvo they say they've got more cards to play.
Now one, of course is sanctions on the bigger banks, so VTB Sberbank, for instance. There are many more oligarchs around Europe with vast amounts of
wealth. You could freeze more assets, you could revoke visas, you can make life very difficult for the people that can put pressure on President
Putin.
Secondly, export restrictions, stopping the exports of key technology, even components like car parts, parts that needs that are needed by playmakers
in Russia, and so on. And you could target the defense sector particularly.
Thirdly, and this is really the Trump card that we've spoken a lot about already is swift disconnecting Russia from Swift, which is the global
financial network that really underpins financial transactions around the world.
That would really impact any business in Russia that has any kind of transaction with any other country, but it would have a huge fallout as
well, four companies that are invested in Russia around the world. So that really is the Trump card.
But that's the problem, the more significant the sanctions and the more impact they could have on Russia really, the bigger the financial fallout
internationally. Julia?
CHATTERLEY: Yes, the greater the spillover effects. Anna Stewart, great to have you with us, thank you. Now, perhaps no surprise China criticizing
sanctions, the Chinese foreign ministry saying, "We believe that sanctions are never the fundamental and effective way to solve problems. China always
opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions' the Taiwan condemning Russia for undermining Ukraine's sovereignty.
Will Ripley joins me on this. Well, when you're sitting, I'm assuming there's a high degree of empathy from Taiwan for Ukraine's position here.
And I think all of us have to imagine that China's watching the United States.
They're watching the Allies respond to the threat against Ukraine here, at least with an eye to their potential future ambitions towards Taiwan.
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And you can see the parallels a small Taiwan against the Motherland China, small Ukraine
against Mother Russia, of course, obviously, fundamentally, that the two situations are entirely different with different history.
But the President here in Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen said that she has empathy for Ukraine, because Taiwan, this island is self governing democracy knows what
it feels like to face a Military threat from a much more powerful authoritarian foe.
Now, she's also telling, you know, her Security Council, her Military officials, that they need to increase surveillance around Taiwan, you know,
because they want to make sure that they're alert.
They want to make sure that they can see if there's any Military activity that's unusual from the mainland. And as of now, nothing unusual has been
observed. China has stepped up its Military activity near this island for the last two years.
So nothing that's been happening in recent days, is out of the ordinary, but there certainly is some nervous energy here that Beijing might try to
take advantage of the crisis in Ukraine, to put more pressure on.
And of course, from the Chinese perspective, they blame the United States and its allies for what Russia is doing, saying that this is a consequence
of pushing power to the brink. Because NATO, you know, over a period of years, basically moved on into Russia's doorstep. That's China describe it.
And they say that Vladimir Putin didn't have a choice but to take back, potentially. So then you have China also saying that the United States is
pushing them to the brink with its relationship, its deepening relationship here in Taiwan.
So you can see how China might use similar thinking down the road to somehow justify potentially trying to absorb this island, unify with this
island that the communist rulers in the mainland have never controlled.
And do it by force if they can't do it by disinformation campaigns or getting, you know, getting people that planted in here who spread rumors
about the opposition political party that actually happens, Julia.
There are people on the ground who spread rumors by people's ears, then they post a fake story on Facebook. And before you know it, there's this
whole alternate reality that exists people believing this fake news. Doesn't that sound familiar?
CHATTERLEY: It sounds very familiar. And actually not just in these two parts of the world, quite frankly, that we're discussing. Well, as you
said, situation different but the parallels clear and I think the whole world's watching. Will Ripley, thank you for that.
RIPLEY: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: That's great to hear on "First Move'. Punishing Putin on a more aggressive sanctions on Russian oligarchs, the key, we'll discuss, plus an
exclusive new CNN poll what Russians think about Ukraine, NATO and the prospect of war, surprising findings next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:20:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move'. U.S. stocks is set to rise in early trade after a week Tuesday that saw the S&P 500 falling into
correction territory. That's a 10 percent drop from January highs tech stocks also trading less than 3 percent away from bear market territory, so
that would be down 20 percent from recent highs and a near their worst levels of the year.
That chart tells the story markets of course, globally, they're going to be sensitive to headline risk coming out of Ukraine as this continues to
develop. Latest today reports that Russia is beginning to pull its diplomatic staff out of Ukraine.
At the same time as Ukraine advises its citizens to immediately get out of Russia. Russia also warning that it will deliver a strong response to U.S.
sanctions announced by President Biden yesterday, but Ukraine saying the sanctions simply don't go far enough to deter President Putin.
This morning its foreign minister is tweeting to stop Putin from further aggression hit more, hit hard, hit now. He's not the only one saying that
the sanctions have been criticized by some in the West for lacking bite.
Joining me is Matthew Schmidt, Associate Professor of National Security and Political Science at the University of New Haven, Matthew, great to have
you on the show. When you assess--
MATTHEW SCHMIDT, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF NATIONAL SECURITY & POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAVEN: Good morning.
CHATTERLEY: Good morning. When you assess the announcements that were made in terms of sanctions, surely there's nothing there that will have
surprised and not been anticipated by Vladimir Putin.
SCHMIDT: That's right. And Putin has been hoarding cash since about 2018. Building up his banks and building up his reserves presumably to survive
exactly this kind of episode, these kinds of sanctions.
CHATTERLEY: He effectively said today, we can survive two years based on our borrowing requirements on the cash that we have the net cash that we
have in reserve.
SCHMIDT: Yes, and I think the other place to look, besides Russia, in general, are the sanctions that we put in place now against the occupied
territories. If you look, their total GDP for a year is maybe $10 billion. So Russia could simply pay cash out and keep them going for quite a while.
CHATTERLEY: You and others have made the point that the best way to pressure, Vladimir Putin is to directly target some of the oligarchs. And
those with strength and wealth are often not in Moscow, they're in London or they're in Switzerland or they enjoy a luxury lifestyle elsewhere in the
world. Do you believe that this is key to perhaps piling pressure on Vladimir Putin to think twice about his plans?
[09:25:00]
SCHMIDT: I think it's important that we try, right, this is a way also to keep us out militarily. So we need to do everything that we can. But we
need to recognize that when you make your first billion, you right away, spend several million to learn how to protect and hide that money.
The second thing is, is I think people aren't realizing the human aspect of this. These men and a few women who are close to Putin, you have this kind
of money, share his vision, right? They're not against him.
The whole idea of sanctions is that if you put enough economic pain on the oligarchs, they're going to put pressure on Putin just a pullback in
Ukraine to change his behavior. But what we're not asking is, what if they believe what he believes, right?
What if they believe that it's essential to bring Ukraine back into Moscow's cultural and political orbit, right? Why would they act? The
second thing, I think, is that we have to remember that Putin was the head of the FSB, right, the successor to the KGB.
As long as he has their faith and their loyalty, he can threaten the lives of these oligarchs, right? We know that Putin is able to do it, we know
that he's able to operate in London, for instance, we know that he's able to operate in Europe.
So they have to think about that and decide, you know, what is worth losing? If they lose a few billion dollars in a certain, you know, for a
while and regain it in 20 years, right? Is that worth their lives? And I think we need to keep that in mind.
CHATTERLEY: I think I would argue with you that ideology, Trump's money, I would disagree with that. But I perhaps would agree with you that fear,
Trump's all.
And I think anyone who was watching that press conference earlier this week, when they saw Putin tackle his own security chief, the head of the
FSB, told you something about the threat that he still poses in terms of security. And you're saying, actually, most of these oligarchs are still
terrified of, of the power that Putin has.
SCHMIDT: I am, I'm going to push back again and say that many of them, in fact, do share this vision, and we can't discount that. But absolutely,
they're afraid of his ability to send out assassins, they're afraid of his ability to use force and simply take, right, take resources and take assets
around the world.
And I think both of these things together, really call into question, what our sanctions can do, unless there's something that you know, the
administration has up their sleeve that we don't know about, that's really quite powerful.
And again, remember also that Putin said, you know, he's going to push back, right, he has counter measures to this. And when you put these three
things together, I think we're looking down the road here a few weeks or a few months in this crisis, in a situation where we might be quite impotent.
We might be out of the tools, we need to try to maneuver him in the direction we want.
CHATTERLEY: You wrote an Op-ed for CNN, which I recommend people read this week, and it is entitled the one thing that could deter Putin, and you
point to loss, the human cost of losing lives on the battlefield, if that's what it comes to.
And therefore, it's important to ensure that Ukraine is as strong militarily as it can be as a deterrent effect. Do you see that at this
stage Ukraine is in that position? And based on what you were just saying, do you rule out NATO engagement, irrespective of whether or not Ukraine's
in NATO, which of course it isn't?
SCHMIDT: I don't think you can roll out NATO engagement yet. But that's a question in the hands of Vladimir Putin and how much he believes in his
vision is willing to risk. I think people need to understand that first of all, there are several million ethnic Ukrainians living in Russia right
now, which means there are several million Russian citizens that have friends and family that are staring down the barrels of Russian guns.
That matters. In addition, if you look at the polling data, Russians are not necessarily in favor of this war, because they're fighting right, a
King Country. It's hard for Putin to dehumanize that, right.
It's hard for him to push this idea that they really do represent a threat to Moscow, when many of these people remember a time when you know, there
was no effective border between the two states. So when you break this down even further, what you see is that Military age, you know, kids 18 to 24
year olds are quite significantly right against the war.
You see that especially those who aren't watching television, but those who are using social media platforms like telegram are getting information that
is that is, you know, real information that's pushing them away from the war.
You see the next to cohorts. Parents, right young parents, and then and then older parents in their 40s are also significantly against the war. And
if Ukraine manages to stack up bodies I mean, this is just the truth of war to stack up body bags and send them back to Moscow.
[09:30:00]
SCHMIDT: It could be the spark that lights that fire for, you know, for Russia as my dawn for that revolution that's been brewing there for a
while. And it's been suppressed, because Putin has been right suppressing journalists and murdering journalists and keeping their voices out of the
public sphere because of what he's been doing to Alexey Navalny.
But all of these things are there, and they're simmering under the surface. And if Ukraine is able to punch back hard enough and hold together, right,
especially if they have to move into some kind of insurgency, this will have an effect.
CHATTERLEY: Matthew, great to get your insight so much there, including the fascinating point about the difference between state TV, state media and
news and social media and perhaps the differences of assimilating information and facts.
Matthew, we'll speak again. Thank you. Matthew Schmidt there, Associate Professor of National Security and Political Science at the University of
New Haven, sir, thank you. Stay with me at "First Move'. There's more to come.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move'. U.S. stocks are up and running this Wednesday and we are beginning the session high with tech in the lead
as you can see up more than 1 percent at this moment.
In Europe, stocks are on the rise for the first time in five days. In fact, as Investors monitor the headlines from Ukraine, remember a lot of negative
geopolitical news has already been priced in with the S&P 500 falling to that 10 percent correction level.
So 10 percent from recent highs, that was hit yesterday for the first time since the beginning of the COVID 19 pandemic. Oil traders have also
factored in a significant degree of bad news crews, steadying in the session today.
But many worrying Brent will hit $110 a barrel if Russia ultimately invades Ukraine, plenty of ifs there, but that's the price level as we see it right
now. Risky assets also seemingly a little bit further firmer today. Bitcoin higher after falling to a two week low in Tuesday's session concern that
Bitcoin has so far failed to act as a safe haven during the Ukraine crisis.
[09:35:00]
CHATTERLEY: Now the world is watching closely to see what Vladimir Putin's next move will be earlier. We heard from Ukraine's president who said the
future of European security has been decided in his country standoff with Russia.
Now new satellite images are showing a continuing buildup of Russian forces on the Ukraine border. Kyiv is calling on citizens in Russia to leave and
seize the state of emergency will be introduced across all parts of Ukraine under government control. CNN's Sam Kylie is in the Donbas region where
shelling has been reported.
SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: About 500 meters in that direction is the frontline effectively on the other side of that, in the
other part of the Donetsk oblast. The Russian backed separatists possibly now supported with formally recognized Russian troops.
But in the last 48 hours, this town has been the scene of intense shelling. It has been the scene of at least one killing a chap called Roman who was
killed about 100 meters in that direction during a volley of fire that resulted here, the damage you can see to a family's home.
Now this is a family. And there I don't know if you could hear it. But there was another shell landing in the distance there. It's been a steady
drumbeat kind of relentless thunder, all day of shelling.
This one happened 48 hours ago. Mercifully, nobody was actually killed, which is frankly, a miracle. Irena and her daughter, Veronica were actually
hiding in here, in the kitchens and outside kitchen, you can see the shrapnel blows, strikes rather that have torn into the building didn't go
through the walls.
Now take a look at what the sort of damage you can get when a single artillery shell hits a civilian home that effectively is the exit wound.
That is a consequence, and there was another shell, I've just heard landing there, these shells that are landing they're not near us, they're about a
half a mile away.
This is a shell though there's blown out the far side, that is the exit wound to a home. But when you see what high explosives can do, when fired
into civilian environment, it's quite terrifying. Now earlier on, we were advised not to go upstairs.
But I think having checked it out, I'm going to take the risk because it's really is worth showing just how horrific the results of a single shell can
be. These were stud walls all gone. The structure is very wobbly.
There is a limited amount of space and read holding this place together. The family study, and this is the bedroom of a nine year old. This is the
bedroom of Veronica. Luckily, she was in the kitchen lying on the floor when the shells landed.
But it could have been so much worse, truly, almost a miraculous survival. All of the everyday manifestations of a young child's life being torn to
pieces utterly shredded.
It is absolutely extraordinary that this could have been done by a single artillery shell, there were four that landed in this town. Part of an
exchange of fire some locals have said others are claiming that it's just the worst level of shelling that they've seen in many years.
Not since 2014, which was when this will were started and indeed this town actually fell then to the Russian backed rebels and the Russian backed
rebels are saying with Putin's agreement, that this territory is part of the land that they claim they're not yet on it.
This territory where I'm standing is still controlled by the government by government forces. They're here on the ground, many of them in a fairly
covert environment, apart from those that are holding those already established frontlines.
CHATTERLEY: Sam Kiley there and we're joined by CNN Military Analyst Major General James Spider Marks joins us now. General Marks, a huge pleasure to
have you on the show, very so much noise and movement, even just in the last 12 hours that I'm presenting to my viewers.
Can you cut through some of that for me, just in terms of what you're seeing and hearing? How have the risks changed in your mind?
MAJ. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER' MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Julia, first of all, thanks for having me. The risk has been elevated certainly by
the proclamations of Putin. His rather despotic control over his inner circle I mean, we've seen those videos excuse me akin to Austin Powers and
Dr. Evil.
[09:40:00]
MARKS: I mean, this is I'm not trying to be facetious. But this is truly a controlled environment. And I don't know what type of input Putin is
getting. Therefore, our view is that this has really increased and then you see what's happening on the ground, you know, the words are initially put
out there and then the behavior changes.
And the behavior is the movement of self propelled artillery, logistics capabilities, rocket capabilities, infantry, fighting vehicles, tanks, et
cetera in the area, just at the bottom of the Donbas region, the Donetsk province.
These are, as you can see, in this video, these are movements into that area. And it's only a matter of time before they go across the border. If
they haven't already a bear in mind, for the last eight years, Russian forces have been supporting and leading the separatists fight against the
Ukrainian forces in those two areas.
So this movement across could be done and probably is being done without a shot being fired other than the sporadic artillery fire that keeps
everybody's head down. So this is an increase in a presence that allows Putin now to expand.
And from a Military guy's perspective, the last thing you want to do is give your opponent the Ukrainian forces an opportunity to respond, to
improve their stance to move in other capabilities.
I would anticipate that Putin is going to probably have a sham election very quickly that says, everybody's going to vote yes, we want to be a part
of Moscow, yes, we really are Russian, and then he's going to move very quickly. And that's when some real fighting will occur, because that's
where the Ukrainian forces will try to resist.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it, because everything you described there, up until the point of violence can be done with what
already exists with the infrastructure with the troops that are already in the separatist regions, which I think is a vital point to understand at
this moment.
But your reference to Austin Powers, and Dr. Evil actually resonates with me. And I do want to pick up on that, based on the comments that we've seen
made by President Emmanuel Macron of France, where he said, this is a dramatically different, Vladimir Putin from even two to three years ago,
isolated this ideological drift that he's seeing.
I showed video just earlier on the show of him dressing down his own FSB chief, which I think were for all of those watching is was a cringe worthy
moment. What are we witnessing here?
And if you were advising those that are responding, engaging, reacting to Vladimir Putin, what would you say? Because there is a danger perhaps that
we underestimate his mood at this moment.
MARKS: It's a great question, because we tend obviously to view our, our engagements, who, with whomever we have, whether these are competitors,
these are friends, or these are enemies, through our own our own perspectives of what rational looks like.
Putin is incredibly rational, in his own mind, he's achieving his desired end state, he's setting the tone of this engagement. We have to be very
careful about demeaning that because then we put our guard down.
If we were to label him more than just a thug, if we were to say he's crazy, or this is a - and that's a reaction, then our behavior doesn't
account for what he's really capable of. It's incredibly important that we keep that in mind.
The other thing that I see is that, you know, effective leaders always have around they must have around them, those contrarian voices that routinely
have the obligation to whisper in the ear of that leader and say, you know, this is not a good idea, or have you considered this?
Putin gets none of that. And we saw that in the video, Julia, you just referenced. It's frightening, because the FSB chief is up there saying that
Putin is dressing him down. And of course, the answer is, whatever you say, boss, I'm on board.
I mean, that's ultimately the answer. Because if I'm not put, Putin's going to hit that hit the button and the FSB chief goes disappearing into that
cauldron of fire, you know, it's going to be terribly unfortunate.
CHATTERLEY: At the very least when we laugh, and we joke, but yes, unfortunately, that that's the risk. And we've seen that in the past that
type of behavior with Putin too. It sort of brings me back to the, again, the conversation I was having earlier on the show, and I, I know you were
listening in about the only real deterrent in Mr. Schmidt's mind who I was just speaking to was that you have to bolster the forces in Ukraine.
He didn't rule out the prospect of NATO engagement on some level simply to prevent a more widespread invasion of Ukraine. What's your sense and an
understanding of what might be required here? And whether or not there is a way in light of everything we've discussed to stop Putin here.
[09:45:00]
MARKS: Yes, the issue I think the shorter answer to that question is from NATO is Ukraine. You're on your own. We emotionally are here to support
you, we have given you forces, you are going to use those forces, we're not going to fight Russian forces in Ukraine specifically.
So the buildup of NATO forces increase U.S. presence with some real capable kit, you know, attack helicopters, et cetera. In the Baltics, and elsewhere
in the region, really send a message to those NATO partners.
We understand Article Five, we're here for you. If anything slips, or spills over into your country, we're here for you. That's not the message
to Ukraine. And they know that, they simply are not members of NATO. And it's been very clear from our president, NATO, that this is an outrage.
Of all the elements of power, we can apply some Military pressure on the shoulders. But we've got economic pressure and informational pressure and
certainly diplomacy to try to deter. But obviously the deterrence has not worked to date, what might happen Julia is Putin stops where he is might
push a little further, but it that remains to be seen that remains to be seen.
But also bear in mind, he wants to connect Crimea to that Donbas region and to greater Russia. That's going to require the application of Military
force.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, that's fair. Major General James Marks, sir, a pleasure. Thank you to have fair, thank you for joining us on the show.
MARKS: Thank you very much.
CHATTERLEY: OK, ahead on "First Move', the results of a new CNN poll was some startling findings on how people in Russia and Ukraine feel about the
use of Military force in Ukraine, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move'. We've just learned the websites of the Ukrainian foreign ministry cabinet Parliament and the Security
Service have gone down. We did not know the cause.
Last week of course, there was a denial of service attack against key sectors in Ukraine as we get any further details or headlines on that, I
will bring them to you. For now President Biden's these Russia's actions amount to the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine.
But what are people in Russia and Ukraine saying, CNN has the results of an exclusive poll conducted in both countries this month. Nic Robertson joins
me now with the results of that poll. Nic, what are the people saying?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: This is really interesting because I think the results speak to the amount of propaganda
if you will in Russia that speak to the amount of people that buy into President Putin's propaganda about the reasons to go to war.
[09:50:00]
ROBERTSON: So about 50 percent of Russians say that Russia should or would be right to go to war with Ukraine to stop it becoming a member of NATO,
the number drops away more to about one-third 3 of Russians that would support Russia going to war with Ukraine, to force Ukraine to become one
country with Russia.
And of course, both of these things have been President Putin's narrative that he's really been pushing strongly over the past few days that
historically Ukraine is part of Russia, that Ukraine represents a strategic threat to Russia at the moment.
And that threat would only be worsened if Ukraine became a member of NATO. So I think, you know, you can see a level of resonance with the Russian
population. It's not massive, but it shows that Putin appears to be carrying the population.
I think it would be reasonable to expect, though, that if there was a war, and if there were Russian casualties, those numbers could change pretty
quickly against President Putin.
Although, you know, again, saying that you have to look into, you have to look at the fact that opposition media here has been pretty much completely
crushed. Human rights organizations have been pretty much extinguished here as well.
This past weekend, three, human rights activists went to protest Russia's Military buildup around Ukraine protests outside the Kremlin. And one of
them was arrested. You know, the message has really sunk into people here over the past few years that going out and protesting against what the
Kremlin is saying, it just isn't going to work for you.
You go back to 2014 when the when Russia annex Crimea, a protest, that at that time, then was joined by big name politicians, they were the first to
be arrested at the protest.
The next were those who were sort of shouting out slogan for next for those holding banners. And then the Police came in for the remainder. And it's
been a long period now, where the idea of being able to get an independent voice out that's critical of the Kremlin has just been becoming choked off
more and more.
And I think the other interesting, and in the context of that, I suppose the other interesting statistic that comes out of the data here, one of the
more headline statistics is interesting. Less than one in 10 Ukrainian say that Russia and Ukraine should be one united country, which again, is
perhaps not surprising, but shows you the level of rejection in Ukraine for President Putin's narrative.
And interestingly, again, in Russia, only one-third of the population thinks that they should all be one country. So it's that sort of one
country narrative that President Putin has at the moment that's perhaps missing its target.
Most of all, the thing that seems to be successful for him is to say that NATO and Ukraine combined are the biggest threat for Russia.
CHATTERLEY: It ties the threats of the entire show this fear of violence and the threat in Ukraine. But also a fear in all the layers below Vladimir
Putin no one is able, willing or allowed to push back or question which is why perhaps we find ourselves in this situation. Nic, great to have you
with us, thank you for that.
Nic Robertson there, OK, after the break how the Ukraine crisis could affect football fans growing calls to take some high profile matches away
from Russia, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move'. Football soccer caught in the middle of the Russia Ukraine conflict FIFA and Europe's governing body UEFA
say they are monitoring the situation. A World Cup qualifier between Russia and Poland is scheduled for next month in Moscow and the Champions League
final is set to be held in St. Petersburg in May.
[09:55:00]
CHATTERLEY: Alex Thomas joins me now, Alex, this is a classic business money influence politics story for me. It's different but there's also
parallels. I think the Beijing Winter Olympics proves that sport can transcend human rights concerns, political concerns, and people get on with
it. Does the same apply here?
ALEX THOMAS, CNN WORLD SPORT: A real echoes of those Beijing Winter Olympics only finished last Sunday, Julia, you're absolutely right. It
played throughout by discussions as to whether Russia should be there, even though they're under the ROC - actually called Russia, and whether the
event should have been taken to China at all because of disputes and disagreements and criticism of its human rights record.
This is slightly different because during that time, at the Beijing Winter Olympics, Russia hadn't yet invaded Ukraine or look like they're on the
verge of doing in the way that they are now.
And we have got the Champions League final, as you mentioned, scheduled to be held in St. Petersburg in May, closer to that, a World Cup qualifier
with Russia hosting Poland as soon as next month.
So problems of FIFA and UEFA they'll want to say that sports and politics do not mix. But of course, we know that if there's global action and global
sanctions against the country, it's very hard to justify taking a sporting event there, not least some of the practical considerations of fans being
able to travel into, you know, areas involved in conflict.
But also just that the moral arguments, of course, their responses tied up in this as well, plenty of money at stake. And that further complicates the
issue.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, as always, Alex, very quickly, timing, when will they likely have to make a decision?
THOMAS: I think in the next few weeks in terms of that World Cup qualifier, but they've got a bit longer UI for in terms of the Champions League final.
CHATTERLEY: Alex, great to have you with us. Thank you, Alex Thomas there. OK, that's it for the show. Our coverage continues with "Connect the World'
with Becky Anderson, up next, stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
