Return to Transcripts main page
First Move with Julia Chatterley
Zelenskyy Warns Russian Offensive in East Coming Soon; China's Q1 GDP Grows 4.8 Percent, Beating Forecasts; Maxar Satellite Images Provide Critical Look at War; Bremmer: There's no Scenario where War in Ukraine ends well; Chinese Ships Near Contested Islands Fuel Concern in Japan; Putin: Inflation Stabilizing, Retain Sales Steadying. Aired 09-10a ET
Aired April 18, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: You're watching CNN. I'm Julia Chatterley in New York. No safe places left the words of the military
commander in the Luhansk who says Russia is shelling everywhere. He accused Russian soldiers of opening fire on people escaping in a car killing four.
Officials in Kreminna say their city has been lost to Russians carrying huge amounts of equipment. President Zelenskyy once again highlighting
attacks on innocent civilians; he says Russian forces are guilty of committing deliberate terrorism and determined to wipe out Donbas cities.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation in the east of our country. It will begin in the
near future. They want to literally finish off and destroy Donbas; destroy everything that once gave glory to this industrial region. Just as the
Russian troops are destroying Mariupol they want to wipe out other cities and communities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And in Mariupol, the resistance continued after Ukrainian troops rejected Russian demands to surrender. They've been told to lay down
their weapons or be "Eliminated". An adviser to the mayor said Russian forces promised to seal off the city and men who remained would be
"Filtered Out".
In Lviv in West Ukraine, which has been mostly spared from violence until now Russian missile strikes killed seven people and injured 11 others. They
hit military targets at tyre repair center and shattered windows to hotel that's housing refugees. Matt Rivers is there for us.
MATT RIVERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well Julia, Ukrainian officials at a midday press conference confirming that Russian missiles
struck four different sites across the city of Lviv on Monday morning here, local time.
At that press conference talking about the sites that were hit three of the four were varying warehouses, according to the Ukrainian officials, the
fourth site being a tyre repair shop. Now in terms of casualties across all four missile sites, and these numbers could certainly change at least seven
people have been killed so far, with at least 11 people injured in total, three of them potentially, critically ill we know that four of the 11
reported injured so far actually came from that tyre repair shop.
We visited that tyre repair shop site, and the buildings that are on site there are utterly destroyed. First responders, firefighters are still
putting out fires at that scene. It has been several weeks since we have seen strikes hit Lviv, the city of Lviv, the region of Lviv.
However, it was just a few days ago that Ukrainian defense officials here said that they shot down using air defense systems, several cruise missiles
that were fired by Russian war planes that Ukrainian officials say took off from neighboring Belarus.
And while Lviv certainly has not felt the impact of this war, like so many other parts of Ukraine, safe to say that people here in the western part of
the country after these missile strikes are certainly much more on edge than they were even just a few days ago, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: And now to the Kyiv region where at the weekend Russia targeted the town of Brovary. Officials say rockets attack damaged infrastructure
facilities there potentially impacting power, and water supply. CNN Correspondent Phil Black is in Kyiv for us. Phil Russian forces have struck
targets in Kyiv and the surrounding region over the past few days that the message here I think is that while Russian troops have withdrawn it's still
within range of rocket fire. What can you tell us about what's been targeted and what the weekend was like?
PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Julia. So three strikes in this Kyiv surrounding area and as many days and as you say the most recent
was in the east, some infrastructure facilities there and it seems to fit what for the moment is a trend and that is hitting individual targets on
the outskirts of the capital.
Now, it was only last week that Russia warned that it did so again after one of these recent strikes, that it would continue to strike Kyiv if it
believed that Ukraine was planning to launch attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation.
But one of these recent strikes was against a facility which Russia says is involved in the making and repair of missiles surface to air missiles, but
also anti-ship missiles. And so that raised the theory that that attack, at least perhaps was retaliation for the sinking of the Moskva, the Russian
missile cruiser that went down last week the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet sank Ukraine says by two of its anti-ship missiles.
Russia still hasn't acknowledged a missile strike on the ship has only talked about a fire on board being the cause of the sinking. So as it
stands apart from some theories, a few basic facts in common a few words potential motivation from the Russian military it is too early to say
whether or not these represent isolated incidents against specific targets?
[09:05:00]
BLACK: Or whether they are part of some renewed prolonged campaign to once again harass the Capital, Julia?
CHATTERLEY: Phil great to have you with us. Thank you so much for that Phil Black there. Meanwhile residents trying to escape from the eastern town of
Sloviansk in the East of Ukraine as Clarissa Ward reports
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CLARISSA WARD, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): At the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral in Sloviansk an ardent prayer from worshipers
under the shadow of Russia's war. We ask for Your Mercy, Lord. Please hear us. They have gathered here for Orthodox Palm Sunday, carrying willows
instead of palms per the Orthodox tradition.
It's supposed to be a celebration of Jesus's return to Jerusalem. But there is little joy in this congregation. Ukrainian officials say this city will
be a decisive battleground in Russia's imminent offensive in the Donbas region.
The streets are getting emptier as the fighting gets closer. Those still here are being urged to leave. The air raid siren is an unrelenting whale.
WARD (on camera): You can't hear it because the sirens are so loud what we've heard a steady stream of booms coming from that way in the distance
but as you can see, people here are just used to it.
WARD (voice over): The children continue to play. The adults try to stay strong. This group is awaiting an evacuation bus to the safety of Western
Ukraine. Raisa (ph) tells us she's taking her grandchildren to Lviv. Their mother died three years ago.
You hear what's happening here she says my husband still at home. His health isn't good enough to make the journey. Her granddaughter offers some
support. Oh, grandma, she says I love you. She is full of anguish that the international community has failed to rein in Putin. When they show the
children killed I can't I cry she says? Why can't they stop this one idiot? If they will send me I will shoot him.
Seven weeks into this ugly war there is no end in sight. Havel is saying goodbye to his wife Olga. She doesn't want to let go of him. Scenes of
separation that have become all too familiar everything will be OK the organizer tells her comforting words that masks a grim reality.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: And staying in Eastern Ukraine, City of Kreminna has now been lost according to a senior Ukrainian official. This comes as President
Zelenskyy says he's not willing to give up territory in the Donbas region to end the war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ZELENSKYY: In the centuries old history of Ukraine there is the story that Ukraine has either taken some territory or needs to give up some territory.
Ukraine and the people of our state are absolutely clear. We don't want anyone else's territory. We are not going to give up our own.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Ben Wedeman is live in the Eastern City of Kramatorsk for us Ben, good to have you with us. President Zelenskyy said he won't give up
the east. And that's been the message all the way along. They weren't given inch of territory up for peace. But the fear, I think is that it's taken
anyway.
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, in fact, at 5 am, local time, 11 hours ago, the town of Kreminna in the east was taken by the
Russians and this as acknowledged by Ukrainian officials.
This was after weeks of bombardment days of street fighting. And right before in the last 24 hours officials are saying that it's essentially
impossible to organize an evacuation of people from that town. And we understand that one car a private car was trying to escape had five people
on board came under fire by Russian forces.
Four people were killed. Apparently there's a woman who's injured the last we heard is she's still in the car because of medical personnel cannot
reach her.
[09:10:00]
WEDEMAN: And what we're seeing is that along the entire front here in Eastern Ukraine there have been overnight intense artillery bombardments
here and Kramatorsk. Very early in the morning a Russian caliber or cruise missile hit the town no injuries, as far as we can tell, although did cause
some damage to local buildings.
And officials here in the entire area are becoming increasingly concerned that so many people remain so many civilians remain in this area. Just a
little while ago, we were speaking with the Mayor of Kramatorsk. And he told us I've tried - I've tried to tell people, it's not safe, you should
get out but he says some people stubborn they just want to stay in the homes they lived in all their lives. But there is a danger approaching
Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Ben, we were just listening to Clarissa talking to families as well that were divided and those just saying they were either unwilling or
leaving their menfolk behind because they were too old or incapacitated and unable to leave.
It's a story all across the country. I want to get your sense of Mariupol too because I think that's become a broader symbol of Ukrainian resistance
and fight when you're facing desperate odds at this stage. And I believe the fighting continues even despite the ultimatum that was given by the
Russians over the weekend to say get out or effectively we're going to go in there and filter out the menfolk. The fighting continues. Ben, what can
you tell us about what's going on there still? WEDEMAN: Yes to describe the situation is desperate is perhaps an understatement. What you have is a few
pockets of Ukrainian resistance, still holding out many of them in the - steel plant by the side of the city but it has come under constant
bombardment.
As you said yesterday at 1 pm a deadline expired a Russian deadline expired and they said that whoever does not surrender by that deadline in their
words the words of the Russian Defense Ministry will be eliminated. We understand they're sealing off the city at this point and people male
residents will have three choices either you join the army the Russian army either you help or this is all forcible obviously forced.
Either you help clean up the rubble or if you are in any way somebody they suspect of having sympathies or affiliations with the Ukrainian government,
whether army police, local administration, they will be detained and perhaps sent to the so called filtration camps where their fate obviously
is unknown.
We understand from officials in Mariupol that as many as 31,000 people have been taken out of the city and put in these filtration camps Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Ben Wedeman, thank you so much for that. Now the war in Ukraine, resulting in slower economic growth all over the world in China
the additional problem of the largest COVID outbreak since the pandemic began. China actually reporting better than expected growth in the first
quarter but of course it's backward looking and the picture is worsening. With a 3.5 percent fall in retail sales last month and unemployment rising.
Steven Jiang has the details.
STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: The first officially confirmed COVID deaths in Shanghai involved three unvaccinated senior citizens aged
around 90 with underlying medical conditions. Now this kind of amazingly low rate of death, three out of over 370,000 infections just has raised a
lot of questions about independent experts saying it simply doesn't add up compared to well, what they have seen in other regions and countries
dealing with Omicron infections.
It's also in a way putting the authorities the Chinese authorities in a bind because while they are pointing to this kind of low death rate, to
showcase their success and the effectiveness of their zero COVID policy. It's also making it very difficult for them to justify their continued
lockdown of more than 25 million residents of Shanghai the country's biggest city and its financial and business hub.
And already this continued and increasingly draconian lockdown is starting to dampen the prospect of the country's economic growth for 2022 with an
insane the seemingly sanguine figure of 4.8 percent growth for first quarter GDP belies the fact the economy is in distress because remember,
Shanghai went into lockdown only late in March.
So what the impact is not yet reflected in economic data from this country. And already, they are seeing some worrisome trend even in March with some
figures in areas that government has tried to depend on to transform its economic growth model from being dependent on manufacturing to being driven
by services and consumer spending.
[09:15:00]
JIANG: There is some very worrisome trend there, including retail sales dropping 3.5 percent a March and unemployment figures rising for that same
period. So all of this is probably why the central government now has announced the so called white list of over 600 companies in Shanghai's key
industries authorizing them to resume production under a so called closed loop management system.
Now remember that was used during the Beijing Winter Olympics, but as of now, it seems local officials in Shanghai and company executives see very
little incentive to adopt the system because of the much greater risks of them being held responsible if new COVID cases emerge under their
management.
Not to mention the logistical nightmare of trying to transporting - trying to transport workers from locked down residences to their factories and all
of this and of course, given Shanghai's prominence in global trade really means the worst is yet to come not just for China's economy, but also for
the international supply chain Steven Jiang, CNN, Beijing.
CHATTERLEY: We're going to take a quick break, but we're back after this stay with CNN. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! For months now Maxar has provided news outlets around the world with a different view of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
satellite images giving viewers an understanding of the war from above from before and after images of the destruction in Mariupol to Russian troops
and equipment in Eastern Ukraine.
Maxar images have been used to fight misinformation after atrocity seen in places like Bucha. Stephen Wood joins us now. He's the Senior Director of
Maxar News Bureau. Steve, great to have you on the show it's not just viewers and it's not just what we see on the TV when broadcasters
discussing what's going on its intelligence agencies as well. And it ties to the lack of those on the ground. You're providing an essential part of
intelligence understanding of what's going on too. Just talk us through what your technology provides.
STEPHEN WOOD, SENIOR DIRECTOR, MAXAR NEWS BUREAU: Good morning, Julia. Thank you. You've mentioned a couple of really important points just at the
very beginning. So our satellite imagery and we own and operate four satellites right now that are orbiting around the Earth.
And one of the central ideas from really its origins was to have unclassified imagery and imagery that could be shared. This kind of very
high resolution detailed imagery is used by as you mentioned the U.S. government by governments around the world.
[09:20:00]
WOOD: But then also can be used as a vehicle to actually show what's happening. It's a tool that can show things that are in a very remote area,
it can be very dangerous area, otherwise almost impossible to get to. But our satellites, because they're orbiting above the Earth can see that in a
level of detail, that is extremely good.
CHATTERLEY: I guess that also means if you've got satellites orbiting the Earth, they're only able to capture specific terrain for a certain period
each day. What are the capabilities in terms of that? And then how quickly can it be accessed back on Earth?
WOOD: Yes, no, that's a very important point. So these satellites are moving at a very rapid speed. They are in orbit. So you know, basic
physics, they're moving 17,000 miles an hour, or go over, let's say, you know, part of the Ukraine, let's use Kyiv as our example.
We'll image in the morning to early afternoon and then we'll probably be about another 24 hours before they come back. So we are seeing a snapshot
in time. The one of the important things that we're doing is we're building more satellites right now. We're getting ready to launch a new
constellation called Legion. And that'll bring additional assets.
And it's always been a story about getting more eyes on what's happening around the world for our customers. We call it revisit, but it's basically
having more looks at an area on the ground, so you can actually see what's happening. Get that imagery back to the customers and to do it quickly.
Timing has improved dramatically, so we're able to get the imagery in the hands of our customers, including the media, like at CNN, within a matter
of hours, if not sometimes even minutes.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, no, it's been an incredible resource. You're also focusing your attention now, as we see the shape of this war changing on the Donbas
region in the east, what can you tell us about what you're capturing, even at this stage?
WOOD: Yes, so you know, one of the things that we've been doing is, is we will continue to shift our focus based on activity that's happening in the
world. Your earlier guests spoke about Shanghai. So we'll look at areas like that.
It's not just Ukraine, we are doing this around the world 24/7 365 days a year. But with the Donbas in particular, as the forces continue to move
into that region, of course, we're using our satellites to monitor activity, whether it's in Mariupol, with the humanitarian issues, the
forces themselves, that's part of what we do every day is to try and track that.
One of the factors we have to be concerned about, or to deal with, I should say, is the weather. The weather in the past few days has been pretty poor.
And so we don't see through clouds with our satellites. And so we are trying to always optimize what we're able to collect. But hopefully the
weather will improve since we have a better more complete view of what's happening.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I know that impaired your ability to collect imagery surrounding the Moskva, the Russian Flagship, and actually what happened
there.
WOOD: Yes, no, that's right. So we actually image the Moskva, this is the big Russian cruiser, of course, that was hit and ultimately sunk. And we
image the ship as it was in court in Sevastopol, several days before that incident occurred.
And then we also imaged it again when it was out at sea. But the moment of the actual incident, and we unfortunately were not able to see. And that's
again, a part of the limitations, but also the ability to have additional imagery, and information to bring this all together as a complete story.
It's something that we will always try and improve upon. And the technology continues to improve to be able to let us does that.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, it's incredible when people - when we don't have people on the ground or troops on the ground in any way your sphere. This
is the eyes effectively. It's also been pivotal in fighting misinformation, which I wanted to talk to you about as well.
I mean, you were part of helping the media build a picture of quite what was happening in Bucha. And some of the misrepresentation, it seems of the
stories, the Russians were saying, look, these could be potential actors. And I'm talking about the people that lost their lives. And were literally
lying in the streets, when the media was able to get in and understand what had happened in there.
Your satellite images showed that some of those people had been lying there for many days. And they weren't actors that are just laid down for the
purpose of video to be collected, and then got up and walked away. You saw some very graphic images there.
WOOD: Yes, absolutely. That was, frankly, that was one of the more graphic and more heart rending things that we've had to deal with. Now, I've been
doing this business have been in the business for more than a couple of decades, and frankly, be able to look at this type of activity. It makes
you pay attention to it.
We ended up working very closely in this case with "The New York Times" to initially do the investigation and to help identify and go back and look at
what was happening in Bucha. But you raised a really important point too, and it's how people then tried to get to make disinformation about the
entire incident and to claim that it had been faked when we had very satellite imagery photographic proof of what was really happening?
[09:25:00]
WOOD: And ultimately, some of the disinformation. This is the entire effort of what we're trying to do with our media reach is to help combat
disinformation to show visual representation in photographic proof of things that are happening, whether it's human rights atrocities, like we
saw on Bucha, and Mariupol and other areas.
The imagery speaks for itself, oftentimes, but it's telling that complete story. And frankly, our partnership with the media has been essential to do
that.
CHATTERLEY: And Steve I can hear in your voice, how difficult it must be for you and your team to be collecting images like you've seen in Mariupol.
So we thank you, too, for the work that you're doing. Very quickly, cyber risk clearly, as we've discussed, you are vital eyes in the skies, how well
protected are you against the threat of, of cyber terrorism that perhaps tries to close those eyes?
WOOD: It's, of course, something we take very seriously. We've been in this business for again, as I mentioned a couple of decades. So this isn't a new
incident for us, or a new type of concern or business issue we have to think about.
Obviously, we don't go into a whole lot of details about what we do to protect ourselves, but it's significant. And it's something that we will
continually modify and update as we need to. So that's really where we are today. And we'll continue to watch that very carefully.
CHATTERLEY: Steve great to talk to you. Thank you for all the work you and your team are doing. Thank you, Stephen Wood, Senior Director of Maxar News
Bureau.
OK, still ahead, the battle for Eastern Ukraine is intensifying a critical moment in the almost two month old conflict for NATO and the West as well.
Political Risk Expert Ian Bremmer sees no end to the fighting his insights into what's next in the crisis coming up?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! Russia intensifying its military campaign in Eastern Ukraine and launching rocket attacks in the West of the country,
seven people have been killed 11 injured after Russian missiles struck Lviv a major population centers the first substantial airstrikes it's suffered.
Heavy fighting was also being reported in the besieged city of Mariupol in the Southeast. Ukrainian troops there refusing to surrender despite a fresh
Russian ultimatum, all this as the Eastern City of Kreminna falls to the Russians.
Ukraine's President Zelenskyy saying in an exclusive CNN interview that he refuses to give up territory in the east Zelenskyy also warning that Moscow
could resort to using nuclear weapons if the war does not go Putin's way.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ZELENSKYY: They could I mean, they can for them, life of the people is nothing. That's why we should think not be afraid. I mean, that not be
afraid, be ready. But that is not the question for to Ukraine and not only for Ukraine for the entire world, I think so.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Ukraine, not the only major international story this Monday, Beijing doubling down on zero COVID policy expanding emergency lock downs
to multiple cities as case numbers tick higher. Ongoing lock downs in Shanghai and other areas were affected behind the 3.5 percent drop in
retail sales last month with the Chinese jobless rate rising at the same time.
Ian Bremmer joins us he's the President and Founders of the Eurasia Group and G Zero Media, and the Author of the new book "The Power of crisis: How
three threats and our response will change the world".
Ian always great to have you on the show where to begin I think you were the first person that said to me, unfortunately, the war in Ukraine won't
end swiftly and it won't end well. And now the intelligence services are saying, look, this could last all year. Is that your view, too?
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER, EURASIA GROUP: Sure. There's no scenario where it ends well, for anyone and, of course, least of all, for
the Ukrainians. I think what we're looking at right now; you know that the Russians have just taken their worst naval combat loss of the sinking of
their flagship in the Black Sea, since World War II.
And they and it was taken out by the Ukrainians a country that doesn't even have a navy that is an enormous humiliation for Russia on top of what has
been a string of humiliations for Russia in this war, but they're not going to capitulate, they're not going to accept defeat.
And so when Zelenskyy is interviewed on CNN, excuse me and says, yes, they can use nuclear weapons. What he's saying is that the Russians are already
being cut off from pretty much every economic sanction that could be used against them.
Almost every weapon system that could be sent to the Ukrainians are going to be sent to the Ukrainians, what else can plausibly done - be done
against Russia? It's not like people are going to invade Russia itself. And so the willingness of Putin to throw everything he has to ensure some form
of outcome in Ukraine that he can claim, as a victory for his own people and for the Russian nation, is kind of minimum table stakes for Putin.
It certainly means there's no successful negotiations process going forward. But it also has to make you feel a lot worse about war is going to
do there?
CHATTERLEY: I mean, the Pope was warning about nuclear weapons this weekend, as you point out President Zelenskyy saying, they don't rule that
out either. Is that a possibility the use of chemical or nuclear weapons? And does it change anything for the West if we do see that?
BREMMER: Yes, of course, it does change things, in the sense that I think it strengthens the willingness to compare Putin with the most villainous
murderous dictators in global history. I mean, right now, if people compare Putin to Hitler.
I think there's still a view that that's a bridge too far from most people that aren't partisan in the war. If he were to use a nuke, you know it's
sort of like anything you could do to get rid of this dictator; you sort of have to do. Biden's moved in that direction already, and by saying that
he's committed war crimes by saying he's committing genocide.
But if he moves towards nuclear weapons I really think is thankfully is a very, very low probability scenario, though I agree with the Ukrainian
President is possible - chemical weapons I mean, if it looks like the Russians are losing in Southeast Ukraine are not able to take the Donbas.
That the Ukrainians are able to strike territory inside Russia with their helicopters with their artillery, I think the Russians would absolutely
consider using chemical weapons because the Ukrainians have no defense against them.
[09:35:00]
BREMMER: Because that would cause panic in the cities that would empty the cities, and would make it easier for the Russians to take that territory in
a way that militarily, otherwise perhaps that might not be available to them.
The underperformance of the Russian military was clearly a very good thing in the early weeks, because it stopped them from taking Kyiv it stopped
them from getting rid of the Ukrainian government. The longer we go, the more the underperformance of the Russian military is itself a danger,
because it makes it more likely that Putin will act in ways that are even more destabilizing.
CHATTERLEY: I was going to call it a war of attrition. And it's wrong for a couple of reasons, because the battles and the war are bigger than that in
the sense. But I do wonder in that kind of scenario who outlast who, particularly if the West continues to feed weaponry and more forceful
weaponry to the Ukrainians? And on the Russian side, you've got an increasingly frustrated, President Putin who is seeing losses who seeing
underperformance and looks to what he has remaining, all at the same time, his economy continues to come under severe pressure? He said today,
inflation of 17.5 percent.
BREMMER: Well, the Ukrainians of course, their economy is being almost hafted this year. And that is an astonishing blow to any country of scale
in the world. But the level of international support that Ukraine will receive going forward as a consequence of this war, and the way they fought
it, the courageousness that they've shown, will be enormous.
So as much as you can say, Ukraine can't win here, because look what's happening to their country, you're never getting these people back look at
the trauma being faced by almost 5 million, mostly women and children that have been forced to flee their country and become refugees, unwillingly.
I mean, that that's not a win for anyone. But you can see the Ukrainians be able to rebuild in most of their territory, and actually use this from the
ashes of the war build into a country that they would all be very proud of it, there'd be a strong sense of nationalism, and they would increasingly
be oriented towards an aligned towards Europe.
For Russia, Julia, there is no such outcome. There's no way that you can rebuild a normal political or economic or security relationship between the
United States and Russia, as long as Putin is in power.
And I increasingly think that's true for the Europeans as well. That's a huge problem, because of course, you know, China's still out there. They're
buddies with Putin, I get it. But actually, if you look at Russia's population, if you look at their economy, you look at their infrastructure.
It's mostly in the Russian west it's mostly oriented towards Europe. And that's gone. They've literally destroyed it because of their decision to
invade this country of 44 million people.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, this is a fascinating point, there was a great op-ed in "The Economist" at the weekend, and it said only a third of the world
actually has denounced this war. The other third is neutral on the defense and they include countries like India, the UAE, and the Saudis.
And then the other third, and obviously, that includes China, to varying degrees is sort of portraying Russia's narrative on this war too. When I
look at what's taking place in Shanghai, and the pressures now that China's coming under, to what extent if anything, does what they're suffering now
with COVID, and the challenges that you and I've talked about with the zero COVID policy, in some way, come to bear on the pressure or not that they
placed on Russia to end this?
BREMMER: There's not much pressure from the Chinese government on Russia at all at this point, and they certainly wouldn't be able to use it. Look, I
mean, in part, you see that the Chinese are not doing more trade with Russia, even though they're politically supporting them. And that's because
Chinese companies have lawyers.
And they understand that they do not want to fall afoul of secondary sanctions in the United States. They know that whether or not they liked
the American policies, and they can't stand American sanctions.
And they've been very strong and saying that these sanctions are overdone, but that China's trade with the U.S. and the west matters a lot more than
their trade with Russia, the role of the American dollar, the American financial institutions are great.
And that of Russia really doesn't matter. So the Chinese as much as they are politically aligned with Russia and will be going forward, their
worldviews are more overlapping. The fact is that China can't do all that much for the Russians economically.
So you have two countries that are kind of rowing in the same direction, but they're in different boats. They don't have that much impact on each
other going forward.
CHATTERLEY: Both boats to varying degrees taking on water at this stage. Give me the outlook--
BREMMER: The Russian toll is taking on a lot more water--
CHATTERLEY: Yes, admittedly, David and Goliath comparison to be made there too. Push it forward for 2022.
[09:40:00]
CHATTERLEY: We've got political instability in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, what's expected to be a very tight French presidential election and ongoing war in
Ukraine, slowing global growth. What's the outlook Ian?
BREMMER: The outlook is more global inequality it is a much worse position for a global middle class and for poor countries that have suffered the
most, without access to the vaccines until late with much higher indebted levels.
And with much greater challenges dealing with inflation, and not having the same ability for their governments to make sure these people can get
through this kind of crisis, you've had two years of pandemic, and now you have the inflation shock.
The supply chain shocks shock on the back of the war in Russia, Ukraine that as we both said, at the opening here isn't ending anytime soon. For
the last 50 years, the single most important global trend has been the emergence of a stronger global middle class because of globalization
because goods and services were moving faster and faster, across borders all over the world.
And that meant efficiency that meant everyone was taking advantage of cheaper labor. And it meant that were emerging more strongly. Those trends
are now unwinding because of the pandemic, because of some changes in technology.
And also now because of the Russia Ukraine crisis, and so what does that mean? You mentioned Sri Lanka, we can talk about Lebanon, but there are a
lot of other countries in that bucket. It means that all of those places that thought that they were going to be able to continue to emerge and
continue to have stronger middle classes are suddenly facing the worst of this environment, the worst of 2022. And the political pressures inside
those countries are going to grow significantly.
CHATTERLEY: And into this America is going to hike rates and suck capital away from them too. We will continue this conversation Ian always a
pleasure to talk to you. Thank you, Ian Bremmer, the President and Founder of the Eurasia Group, and G Zero Media and the Author of the new book "The
Power of crisis: How three threats and our response will change the world". We're back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! Let me bring you up to speed with some of the other stories making headlines around the world. There are more clashes
between Israeli forces and rock throwing Palestinians over the weekend. Once again the conflict centered on the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: Israeli police moved in when Palestinians began throwing rocks at buses carrying Jewish visitors to the area. Police in Sweden are
condemning riots that took place in the south of the country over the Easter weekend. Dozens of police officers and at least 14 other people were
hurt. We're told the clashes were sparked by counter protests to anti- Muslim rallies, and that a far right group plan to publicly burn copies of the Quran.
The U.S. Special Representative for North Korea says he's willing to meet with Pyongyang anywhere without any conditions. He made the statement only
hours after North Korea tested a new short range missile that it says will enhance its nuclear program.
And there are growing concerns in Japan about the increased appearance of Chinese ships around a chain of contested islands this amid heightened
tensions between China and Taiwan. And fears Beijing could be inspired by Russia's war on Ukraine to launch its own attack. CNN's Blake Essig has
more on how Japan is stepping up its defenses as the political rhetoric heats up.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAP)
BLAKE ESSIG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): For the past 25 years Kazushi Kinjo has made a living fishing the waters surrounding Japan's Nansei
Islands. That includes the uninhabited group of islands known as the - in Japan and in China. When he started Kinjo says he never saw Chinese ships,
but in the last few years.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You could see it in the video. The bow of one of their ships was pointed straight at us, and they were chasing us.
ESSIG (voice over) Dangerous encounters specifically around the contestants - islands that - says are guaranteed. I don't know for sure. But I also saw
what looked like cannons looking back they definitely could have shot at us if they'd wanted to. I felt that fear.
In response to CNN, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it's carrying out law enforcement duties in its territory. But it's not just the Chinese
Coast Guard trolling these contested waters. Japanese and senior U.S. defense officials say Chinese warships are routinely patrolling Japanese
territorial waters in the waters near Taiwan and according to one of the men in charge with defending Japan, that increased activity isn't limited
to the sea.
ESSIG (on camera): From where I'm walking on the shores of Japan's Yonaguni Island, the East Coast of Taiwan is only 110 kilometers away. It's so close
that on a clear day, you can actually see it. It's this stretch of water. It's been viewed as a potential battleground if China invades Taiwan.
ESSIG (voice over): It's that close proximity and has Japanese officials claiming Taiwan's peace and stability is directly connected to Japan's. A
security threat amplified by the ongoing nuclear threat posed by North Korea and a growing fear that China may try to take control of land the
Japanese government claims is inherently here this.
GENERAL YOSHIHIDE YOSHIDA, CHIEF OF STAFF, JAPAN GROUND SELF DEFENSE FORCE: Japan's territorial sovereignty extends to the Nansei Islands, and I'm
afraid that may be infringed in the future.
ESSIG (voice over): It's for those reasons that General Yoshihide Yoshida says defending the Nansei Islands is a top priority. The Nansei Islands
consist of these 198 islands since 2016 in a clear departure from Japan's post World War II pacifism, Japan's Self Defense Force has increased its
footprint building bases on and Yonaguni - is next.
ESSIG (on camera): How confident are you in Japan's ability to defend it?
YOSHIDA: We are enhancing our capabilities, but our competitors are also enhancing their capabilities at an extremely fast pace. It will be very
difficult to maintain our deterrence and response capabilities unless we further increase our military capacity.
ESSIG (voice over): Back on Yonaguni the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sparking fears that China could be emboldened to act off Japan's shores.
KAZUSHI KINJO, FISHERMAN: The people are terrified of the situation that's happening. I think that the - issue and the Taiwan contingency are similar
to the Ukrainian issue. I have a strong sense of crisis that this island will eventually cease to be Japan.
ESSIG (voice over): But in the face of geopolitical concerns well out of his control, Kinjo and his crew do what they know. They prepare for another
day at sea Blake Essig, CNN, Yonaguni Japan.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: And coming up the Mayor of Moscow warning of hardship ahead as Western sanctions continue to pressure the Russian economy. That story
ahead, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back! The World Bank today cutting its 2020 global growth forecasts as the war in Ukraine intensifies. The group now sees the
global economy growing at 3.2 percent it had seen growth above 4 percent.
A cautious tone to U.S. markets versus investors eye are pressurizing U.S. borrowing costs and the way key earnings from major U.S. firms IBM,
Netflix, American Express and other multinationals all set to report over the coming days Wall Street coming off a losing week with both the S&P 500
and the NASDAQ dropping more than 2 percent.
Clare Sebastian joins me now, an important earnings week and an important earning season actually just to get a sense of to what extent rising input
costs higher wage costs are either being absorbed by companies and therefore hitting margins or being passed on to a consumer lots to watch
for I think Clare.
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Julia. And as we saw last week, the banks continue to set the tone for this. We have Bank of America this
morning, they actually fared a little better than expected their profit fell 12 percent.
Their consumer business offsetting a big 35 percent drop in investment banking. What you see here is really a different stage for the banks gone
are that the heady days of the deal making of 2021. This is a new phase, people holding fire on big deals while they see how this inflation interest
rate environment shakes out.
And that is really what people are watching this week. We're going to hear from Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair later this week the big question whether
or not he might, the Fed might act quicker than perhaps expected might move to a half percent rate rise at the next meeting.
The risks are, of course, on both sides, either they act too quickly and bring about a recession sort of sooner, rather than later in the U.S.
economy. Or they could act too slowly. The Former Chair of the New York Fed Bill Dudley in an op-ed this morning on Bloomberg saying, you know, he said
the title was the slower the Fed, the harder the landing.
He said the risk is that if the Fed delays acting fast now inflation expectations could become really embedded inflation underlying inflation
could rise. And they could be faced with an even more urgent situation down the road. So there's a lot of risks on the, you know, in the environment
right now. And I think investors are sort of holding fire to see how this week goes.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it? Because they'll always say that they set policy for the United States and nowhere else. But I think
there's never been a more pivotal time for U.S. monetary policy having a dramatic impact actually on the rest of the world at a critical moment.
Speaking of that, let's talk about Russia because we got a sense from President Putin himself this morning about the impact that they're seeing
on their economy, inflation at 17.5 percent, according to the President.
SEBASTIAN: Yes, this is the first time that certainly I've heard and I listened to pretty much everything that Putin says at the moment that he's
put a number on inflation. This was a number that was put out actually by the economy ministry last week.
As of April the 8th annual inflation in Russia stood at 17.5 percent. Now Putin in the same breath did say things are stabilizing. The economy is
stabilizing. He said the Ruble has stabilized that is actually true. The Ruble is now at about the same point against the dollar as it was just
before the war in Ukraine started.
But he did also in the same breath say look, we need to act quicker. We need to make show that we're helping people deal with what he called this
wave of inflation.
[09:55:00]
SEBASTIAN: And he said the best way to do that is to create well-paying jobs. And this is what Moscow the City of Moscow is apparently doing. We
got an - in a blog post this morning from the Mayor of Moscow, Sergey who says that around 200,000 jobs are at risk in Moscow alone because of
Western companies leaving.
He said that they are allotting about $41 million from the budget to create new jobs for these people. And some of them will be in sort of public works
parks; state service centers, summer pavilions, even if you look at the types of jobs that can be lost the types of companies that have left
everything from sort of Heineken to retailers like H&M to big banks, like Goldman Sachs, that is a stretch but you do see that the Russian economy is
trying to redesign itself to cope with the pressure of sanctions.
CHATTERLEY: Claire Sebastian, thank you so much for that. And that's it for the show. Stay with CNN "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson is up next.
We'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
