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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Ukrainian Officials: Russia Controls most of Severodonestk; Global Stocks Mixed after ECB Signals July Rate Hike; Global Food Crisis Looms due to Russia's war; Bremmer: World was not Equipped to deal with Recent Crisis; Northvolt Becomes first European Firm to Ship EV Batteries; WAPO: Twitter to Comply with Elon Musk's Data Demands. Aired 09-10a ET
Aired June 09, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: A warm welcome to "First Move". I'm Julia Chatterley in New York. It is great to be with you. And the European
Central Bank will finally hike interest rates in an attempt to rein in soaring inflation. But not until July, the ECB plans to raise rates by 25
basis points at next month's meeting.
So that's a quarter of a percentage point. It also announced significant cuts to its growth forecast stemming from the war in Ukraine. Anna Stewart
has all the details. Anna great to be with you let's try and avoid basis points to avoid people's eyes glazing over when they listen to us. Nice
start there, investors were pricing three quarter of a percent percentage point rate hikes by September was that confirmed because that's a lot of
hikes over a short space of time?
ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know what it's possible, it wasn't confirmed, essentially, what we're seeing here is almost a promise that
there will be a rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point. So you're putting basis points there for you Julia in July, and then potentially for
September, we could see something bigger. And this is very much what analysts and investors were looking for.
What's the pace? And how big and I thought the comment from the press release actually was really interesting. It says, if the medium term
inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment will be appropriate at the September meeting.
I think that's almost the furthest sort of forward guidance I think we've ever had from the ECB and actually going into this meeting. Wasn't it
interesting? We had such a hawkish tone from Christine Lagarde between the two meetings, whether it was an interviews or in blogs. So coming into
this, I think people were expecting a much more hawkish move, and possibly this didn't deliver as hawkish a move as some are expecting.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTINE LAGARDE, PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK: If the war were to escalate, I didn't economic sentiment could worsen. Supply side constraints
could increase, and energy and food costs could remain persistently higher than expected.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART: Well Julia, we went a little early, went a little early to that sound bite. But you can hear the issue at the heart of this, which was
Christine Lagarde, essentially saying so much rests on the war in Ukraine. And that is why the outlook is uncertain. And they're not going to promise
anything really until they see more data coming out in the months ahead Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's so important to your point, the challenges of forecasting in this kind of environment, whether it's the kind of growth
slowdown, that we're seeing the inflationary price pressures across the board, also how the market reacts to this, because of course, they've been
trying to keep interest rates bond yields down, which obviously impacts everything that credit cards, mortgage rates are priced on around Europe.
If those spikes significantly higher than a lot of the work, the tightening works being done for them. Anna what are they forecasting? Can you give us
any kind of sense?
STEWART: Well, we've certainly seen some big moves in terms of European bond yields just today. Going into the meeting, I spoke to Deutsche Bank,
the Chief Economist there saying that they feel like the ECB has essentially underestimated inflation, and was continuing to do so going
into this.
So it was really interesting to see what their inflation forecasts are? Of course, inflation hit over 8 percent in May, which is an all-time record, I
think, or at least for many years. Now, the new stock projections are for annual inflation at 6.8 percent this year. So we're off the high that we've
already seen potentially declining to 3.5 percent next year 2.1 percent in 2024.
So just above that sort of baseline, if you like in 2024 GDP also really interesting so significant downgrades in terms of their projections for
GDP, for 2020 to 2.8 percent for 2023 2.1 percent. Anna has also revised up for 2024.
What I find most interesting about this is that actually being still despite a significant downgrade in terms of this year next year, they're
still being really optimistic compared to the likes of the OECD Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Good spot. Anna Stewart, thank you so much for the context there and managing over a few technical glitches, professional and
otherwise. Thank you. To Ukrainian now President Zelenskyy warns the fate of the entire Donbas region is being decided in Severodonestk.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: We defend our positions inflict significant losses on the enemy. This is a very fierce battle very
difficult, probably one of the most difficult throughout this war. I'm grateful to everyone who defends this direction.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: These as local officials say Russia now controls most quote of the city. Salma Abdelaziz joins us now. Some poignant words, I think there
once again from President Zelenskyy and underscore the point of that the weaponry, the longer range weaponry that they've been asking for many weeks
and months. Salma, how bad is the situation?
SALMA ABDELAZIZ, CNN REPORTER: If you're reading the situation on the ground, and you hear what President Zelenskyy is saying which is that the
fate of Donbas lies in Severodonestk than the fate of Donbas simply does not look promising for Ukraine.
[09:05:00]
ABDELAZIZ: We know according to local Ukrainian officials that Ukrainian troops have pulled back withdrawn strategically to fortify positions. They
are outmanned. They are outgunned. They say that they have a catastrophic shortage of artillery barrages. They have been for weeks now by been
pounded by superior Russian artillery.
Look, it's hard to read what Ukrainian officials are saying and not assume that it is almost inevitable that Severodonestk falls. And this is
important Julia; I want to just pull up that map of the frontlines you can take a look at why this one city matters? Why these grueling battles are
taking place?
And that's because it's one of the last strongholds in the Luhansk region, if Severodonetsk falls essentially Luhansk falls to Russian troops and the
Donbas region then becomes one step closer to being fully under Russian control. And last night, there seems to have been an uptick in the Russian
offensive on this area.
Ukrainian officials are predicting that Russian troops want to have a win by this weekend, because Sunday is Russia Day, that's a national holiday
their independence day, President Putin might want to make a point of taking Severodonestk by that point.
CHATTERLEY: Salma, it matters for many other reasons, too. If we can pull that map up again, it ties to the port access, the water access that's so
critical for this part of the Ukraine country in particular, and again, a warning from the UN Secretary General echoing what the World Food Programme
is saying now that the risk that millions more people are pushed to near starvation as a result of being unable to get the significant amounts of
grain out of Ukraine that the rest of the world needs.
ABDELAZIZ: Absolutely, Julia, this is the fear. This is the domino effect. This is the possibility that the United Nations that the western world is
warning that hundreds of millions of people could be left starving could be left destitute that this could trigger larger conflicts across the Middle
East and Africa.
If there is food insecurity right now, there is 20 million tons of grain trapped inside Ukraine. Ukrainian officials cannot export it. I'm going to
pull up that map again. I'm sorry, but it is the easiest way to explain this. If you look at that coastline, along the Black Sea along the Sea of
Azov, that's what Russian; forces have been taking in this more than 100 day conflict.
They have been taking control of those areas. You still have Odessa, of course, which is under full Ukrainian control, but Moscow is not allowing
ships with grain on them to leave the port of Odessa to go and export that grain. There were talks in Ankara yesterday between Sergei Lavrov the
Foreign Minister, of course of Russia and his counterparts, no solution has been found.
This is a difficult diplomatic effort here because Ukraine says that Russia is essentially holding the screen hostage that it is using food as a
weapon. The EU Chief agrees; she says its part of the arsenal of terror for Russia, to hold on to the screen to not allow these supplies to pass
through these ports.
There have been very solutions put into place from third parties, third countries rather trying to guarantee the security of Ukrainian ships, no
agreement on that. And these are the 20 million tonnes of grains right now that are trapped you. This is the beginning of the season.
There is more and more. There is an expiration date on this. Of course, this is highly concerning for the diplomatic world. This is highly
concerning for the Middle East and Africa that rely on the breadbasket here in Ukraine. And there is no solution in sight Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Now we're going to speak to the Deputy Minister of Agricultural Policy for Ukraine later on in the show. So hopefully get some context on
what may or may not be able to be done? Salma great to have you with us, thank you!
OK, let me bring you up to speed on some of the other stories making headlines around the world. The special U.S. House Committee investigating
the January 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol will begin to lay out its case on primetime TV later today. The panel aims to connect the dots between
Former U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election and the violence at the Capitol building.
And also on Capitol Hill the Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives voted for a sweeping gun control package on Wednesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): On this vote the yeas are 223, the nays are 204. The bill is passed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: They're not expected to pass the Senate due to opposition by Republicans. Meanwhile, on a late night TV show, President Joe Biden
answered questions about what he alone can do on gun reform.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JIMMY KIMMEL, HOST: Can you issue an executive order Trump passes out like Halloween cancer?
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Yes.
KIMMEL: Isn't that something that should happen?
BIDEN: Well, I have issued executive orders within the power of the presidency to be able to deal with this everything having to deal with guns
gun ownership whether or not you have to have a waiting. But all the things that within my power are what I don't want to do and I'm not being
facetious.
[09:10:00]
BIDEN: I don't want to emulate Trump's abuse of the constitution and constitutional clarity.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Immigration along the Southern U.S. border will top the agenda at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. President Biden launched the
event on Wednesday, Mexico and three Central American countries are boycotting the summit because Venezuela and Nicaragua and Cuba were not
invited by the United States, citing their human rights records.
And getting into the swing of things golfers like Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson began teeing off at the first ever Liv Golf Event outside London,
the winner of the controversial Saudi backed series will take home a whopping $4 million prize.
And Alex Thomas is at the Century in clubs looking at all the action. Alex, I was going to ask you about the weather first and foremost, but I can see
it looks pretty gray behind you. You can always count on England to have a shocking weather on this kind of occasion. What's it like there? What's the
atmosphere? And who's there? Give us a sense.
ALEX THOMAS, CNN WORLD SPORT: Yes, sunny hot British summer is still the thing that Saudi Arabian dollars cannot buy Julia that's for sure. But
there is a bit of a buzz here on the opening day, certainly, much more than yesterday's final practice day, I would say the crowd measures and it's
hundreds not thousands so far, but perhaps not surprising for us still a new venture that nonetheless has created a huge shockwave through global
sports and geopolitics and where they collide.
And it's probably looking a bit empty behind me now, because that was the driving range full of players. And they've now all been ferried off in
London black cabs so 16 of the 18 holes being played here. Because it's a shotgun start, one of the new innovations that Liv Golf say is going to
shake up the established order, which means that the groups of three will be in 16 of the 18 holes.
A loud horn will sound in around well, four minutes now. And that's the signal for all the groups to start at the same time. It means they'll all
go around the holes in a sort of four or five hour period having the same conditions at the same time, removing that lottery of weather you tee off
in the morning very early, or in the afternoon very late, which has decided some tournaments in the past.
As I speak, we've got to have a flyover of planes or they look like old Spitfires to me, you can probably hear them rather than see them. I'm not
going to ask the camera to suddenly flick up into the sky at the last minute. So they're trying to put on a bit of a show as a great fans village
here lots of interaction here are kind of cold stream guards, bands playing as well, trying to play on the kind of London theme, although the most of
the other torrents be held in the USA.
There's one in Thailand, one in Saudi Arabia as well. But we're waiting to see what reaction there'll be from the Liv Golf Series main rival, the PGA
Tour, which has not allowed its players to play here?
They're playing here against the permissions of the tour of which they were members. Some have resigned that membership. Of course, the PGA Tour can't
take any action Julia until a ball is hit competitively. So that statement that could be someone literally sitting in PGA Tour headquarters with their
finger over the send button as we speak.
CHATTERLEY: Fascinating. So we'll wait and see what the PGA do if anything over the coming minutes and an hour I suppose? And then just what you want
that kind of flyover as you're on the putting green there or trying to tee off that was really loud. Yes, Alex, great to have you thank you Alex
Thomas there.
OK, straight ahead on the "First Move" was Russia is accused of weaponizing food the Ukrainian Deputy Agriculture Minister tells us it's a global
problem plus, highly charged the Swedish startup trying to jumpstart Europe's EV industry all coming up stay with it.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:15:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". U.S. stock futures turning lower over the past hour reflecting a more negative tone across Europe bond
yields also moving higher as Anna mentioned earlier. But that's a worldwide story. It comes after the European Central Bank signaled it's finally ready
to raise interest rates. Policymakers are set to begin hiking borrowing costs next month and ending their quantitative easing program within weeks.
That's their bond buying program the first real steps towards taming rampant inflation.
The task before global Central Bank is becoming all the more urgent as oil prices spiked to 11 year highs both Brent and U.S. Crude currently trading
over $120 a barrel. The Oil Minister for the UAE warning yesterday that oil prices are nowhere near their peak that disconcerting projection reflected
in the share price of oil giants like Exxon closing at a record high on Wednesday Exxon trading above $100 a share for the first time in eight
years.
And it's not just the soaring cost of fuel that's jolting economies, higher food prices impacting family budgets globally too, as the cost of basic
staples skyrockets, due in part to the war in Ukraine corn and wheat up more than 60 percent this year, while soybeans and sunflower oil up more
than 35 percent wheat prices also up more than 50 percent and the OECD warning yesterday of the risks of food shortages in emerging markets due to
the Ukraine conflict.
Adding to that risk, Russia has been accused of stealing hundreds of tons of Ukrainian grain and turning food into a weapon of war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
URSULA VON DER LEYEN, EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT: This is a cold, callous and calculated siege by Putin on some of the most vulnerable
countries and people in the world, and therefore honorable member's food has become now part of the Kremlin's arsenal of terror.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: United Nation's Secretary General said the war threatens to "Unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution around the world".
The UN now warns the conflict could push 47 million people into acute food insecurity.
The World Food Program has been saying that for a while now. Let's talk about this joining us now is Taras Vysotskyi. He's the first Deputy
Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food in Ukraine Minister great to - Deputy Minister great to have you with us. I want to talk to you about theft to
begin, can you quantify for me how much grain you believe the Russians have stolen and what evidence you have for this?
TARAS VYSOTSKYI, UKRAINIAN AGRARIAN POLICY AND FOOD DEPARTMENT MINISTER: Hello, thank you for the invitation and for the call. Unfortunately, we
have the situation where about half million ton of grain has been stolen by Russians on the partly occupied territories of Ukraine. We do know this
because we have received their information from the people on the elevators.
That Russian skein just took this grain - visiting military power. And also we have video on photo facts of cars and rail cars bring in this grain -
was the direction of Russia or occupied Crimea. And even after that it has a satellite images that the ships were loaded with the grain in Crimea,
whereas has been no harvest of grain from the previous year left and then moved to other countries. That's why from resources we understand about--
[09:20:00]
CHATTERLEY: What about strategic reserves? How much of this is your strategic reserves of green? And are they somewhere else and protected? Or
are they also at risk given the location?
VYSOTSKYI: Fortunately, there have been no strategic reserves left on this partly occupied territory so in - around 22 million tons of grains on the
control territory of Ukraine, so you can compare increases strategic reserves. These volumes are not important and not big.
CHATTERLEY: What about the current harvest as that's farmed? How do you protect that from theft?
VYSOTSKYI: So, first of all, on the control area, farmers have finished planting and preparing to start harvesting in a month. And if we talk about
the party occupied territory, as these territories, most of the spring planting wasn't done.
So first of all, we are waiting for the militaries to freeze these territories and then move on. And on the controlled territory, of course,
it is protected, and we will be able to keep harvesting necessary crops.
CHATTERLEY: I mean this is a global issue. And we've talked about this, what you were just saying there is also very important and the inability to
be able to plan for next season. Deputy Minister how much have a reduction are you expecting in the next harvest as a result of the war and the
challenges of planting and the loss of farmers people being able to do so? Is it going to be half? Is it going to be less than that? Can you give us
any sense?
VYSOTSKYI: Actually, we have lost 25 percent of the arable area. But in terms of volumes, of course it is more. We anticipate that the harvest will
be around 75 percent less than previous years which mean around 30 million tons less so 35, 40 percent less almost half of the previous year harvest.
CHATTERLEY: Wow! I mean, it's incredible that you've managed to achieve what you have with planting this year. I want to talk about immediate
priorities and that is trying to get grain out and port access to allow grain to flow to the rest of the world.
There was obviously the meeting in Ankara yesterday between the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said effectively
that the ball is in Ukraine's court and you need to remove the mines that are in the water. Can Ukraine do that? Are you willing to do that? And how
long would it take?
VYSOTSKYI: It's untrue. So the problem is in Russian military ships. So it's not the case of Ukraine. So far, they don't allow and safely, really
to keep the Syrian ships move in and out of Ukrainian poles.
Until the real guarantees or safety guarantees are received by Ukraine, on behalf of international partners, that it is possible. We can't talk about
letting ships in or out. So that's the main problems that Russians keep with military ships near the Ukrainian sea border.
And don't allow safely. No one provides the necessary guarantee safety guarantees as the cruise of these ships, the goods on the ships. It's all
could be safely brought in and out of our Ukrainian ports so far we haven't received it.
CHATTERLEY: I understand. And it's the same for commercial ships, no one's going to get any insurance to be able to go in there until there's
guarantees of peace and safety. But I want to ask you again about the minds. Deputy Minister, can you clear those mines and how long would it
take?
VYSOTSKYI: Well, it depends again, so what is their goal? If we receive the victory, and the war is ended of course we can it quite quickly. If it's
still some corridors within the war it's another story. So to make the processes physically it's not very complicated. First of all it depends on
the other obstacles, including the war is going on or not.
[09:25:00]
CHATTERLEY: But you're making the point, which I think is an accurate one, that piece. And some form of ceasefire has to be established in this region
before you will consider removing those mines to allow any ships to flow?
I want to ask you a final point on this, that the Head of the World Food Program told me recently that the world needs Russia's grain and it needs
Russia's fertilizer. So there should be carving outs, exceptions for companies and those people that are trading with Russia in order to ensure
food security around the world. Do you agree with that? I know it's a difficult question. It's an ethical question - anything else?
VYSOTSKYI: Our position is quite clear. Ukraine is ready to fulfill all the obligations in order to supply necessary food for international food
security, without any limits. So was the point is very clear. Russia should stop the war.
We can't have other discussions, if we stop it today all of these goods can move on tomorrow, no problem at all. They're ready. They're not going to
save them as - inside of the country. We are ready to support so let's focus on finishing the war and not finding different other suggestions,
which can't guarantee safe results.
CHATTERLEY: Deputy Minister thank you for your time. We appreciate - we appreciate the information sir thank you the Deputy Minister of Agrarian
Policy and Food of Ukraine. We're back after this with the market open stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move" and it's a muted start to the stock market trading days the ECB gets set to raise rates for the first
time in over a decade. The European Central Bank announcing that it's set for rate hike liftoff next month.
Playing a bit of catch up, I think with central banks in the rest of the world that were already tightening borrowing costs. Christine Lagarde and
company not signaling a hawkish half a point hike in July has some as expected, but a more aggressive action could come later this year.
The European Central Bank also cutting its growth forecasts sharply and raising inflation expectations to almost 7 percent this year, all this is
the U.S. gets set to release its latest read on consumer price inflation in Friday's session.
And a mostly lower date over in Asia to Beijing helping set the tone after announcing that it will begin closing up bars and cafes and sports
facilities yet again, as new COVID cases rise. The NIKKEI, however, jumped 1 percent it's now down a mere 2 percent for the year so far, wow.
That is a global outflow of performer.
Now, the war in Ukraine, China's COVID lockdowns, the climate crisis, not to mention the impact of disruptive technologies, all key global challenges
that policymakers will be dealing with for years, if not decades.
Ian Bremmer, the President and Founder of Eurasia Group see reason for hope, as politicians, business leaders and citizens groups begin
confronting emergencies head on, and offering solutions.
The outlines a way forward in his new book, "The Power of crisis: How three threats and our response will change the world". Ian always great to have
you on, actually, before I even got to the book and before we talk about it, the opening page says to a glass half full, that first half was tasty,
there is a more optimistic tone in this book, I think, compared to others that I've read from you? And that is important.
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP: Yes was half as tasty is a recognition that we're the ones that actually drank the first half. And I
think that there's a little bit of that in the book as well.
CHATTERLEY: You know, I think, and it is, and it's a great read as well. And I say that to people to take a look. I think, for me, the war in
Ukraine has crystallized a lot. And this comes out in the book. Whether it's the new technologies that we're seeing in cyber warfare, the role of
energy security, our response to that directly related to climate of course.
And then the other one in there is the health crisis and the risks that we face something worse than COVID in the future. It's the one benefit of
everything we've been through that leaders have lost some of their complacency?
BREMMER: I think that's right and also that who were willing to listen to as a leader has become broader. I believe we all clearly owe a debt of
gratitude to the Ukrainian President and the people of Ukraine, for reminding us in the United States and in the West.
What we stand for reminding us our values, knocking us out of that complacency. For decades, we've watched NATO adrift and increasingly
obsolete, as Trump called it or brain dead as Macron did.
And the Ukrainian government has forced us to start paying attention, and we're strengthening it, we're expanding it. And we're standing up for
something and what this book talks about, not just the response to the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
But also all of these other crises, which is very target rich environment in the world these days that increasingly does knock us out of complacency
in some of those lessons, we've been willing to start learning like on global climate change.
And some of them we haven't done such a great job, like in the response to the pandemic. But nonetheless, it's very clear that the seeds of a new and
more functional global order are being planted are being sown in these crises.
CHATTERLEY: The question is whether we can work well enough together to tackle some of these issues? And the book grabs you from the get go because
it talks about a conversation between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev talking about Reagan asking him if America was attacked by aliens would
Russia come and help and the two agreed that they would work together and Reagan years later was laughed about this for a number of different
reasons.
But the point there is a valid one, that if the threat is common, and it's bigger than local, regional, even big political issues, it can be overcome
together fact - some of these?
BREMMER: I mean, yes, certainly when I was a grad student, that conversation between the Americans and the Soviets and whether we could
prevent each other from blowing ourselves up with nuclear weapons?
We didn't trust each other Reagan called the Soviets, the evil empire. But we recognized we need to work with each other to contain the proliferation
of these incredibly dangerous weapons. Well, in the 21st century, we have lethal autonomous drones, we have offensive cyber weapons, and we have
artificial intelligence algorithms that make it impossible to differentiate between a real person and a fake person.
And the Americans and Chinese who dominate these technologies haven't even started a conversation yet about how to contain their proliferation?
[09:35:00]
BREMMER: It's very clear that if we could do that with the Soviets, we can do that with the Chinese. But we're going to have to start now.
CHATTERLEY: How do you formalize it, though Ian? You know, this goes back to a conversation you and I were having with the Microsoft President Brad
Smith, and his idea of this concept of having a digital Geneva Convention where you bring all these big players together to tackle things like cyber
security, for example, particularly where national security interests are concerned.
How do you do that in this kind of environment where you've got North Korea off on one end, you've got China in the United States at odds economically,
politically? How do you formalize this in order to get the action and the response that you're talking about?
BREMMER: So I'm an analyst, both by temperament and by training, and so what I'm going to say may sound banal, but I think it's really true. You
start by defining the problem defining the problem collectively.
We've done that with climate change. The entire world now agrees that there is 1.2 degrees centigrade of warming, we all know, it's manmade, it's not
coming from nature, there's no more fake news on this issue, doesn't mean we're all working equally hard to resolve it.
But 195 countries get together every year and actually say this is the state of paying climate change. And so when the Americans and the Chinese
even though we don't work together on climate.
The Chinese start investing in solar and nuclear and wind and electric vehicles, we look at them and we say my God that they're going to be the
dominant energy superpower unless we start investing.
And so that competition becomes virtuous, as opposed to vicious. We need to do the same thing to start on disruptive technologies that you would need a
group could be under the UN. So like the Intergovernmental Panel on artificial intelligence that would have technologists and coders and
members of the private sector and bureaucrats that would define the problem?
What are the technologies that are truly dangerous and disruptive, where we don't have effective defense where we need to actually contain them from
proliferating? What's the nature of the club that's able to have them? And who are we prepared to actually put sanctions on if they don't?
You start there and then after you've collectively defined the problem which I think can be done, in the course of a couple of years, you start
putting the people the institutions on different aspects of that problem and start fighting it in the same way that on climate change.
We have a group for biodiversity, we have another for methane, we have a third for deforestation, we have a fourth for carbon, we have a fifth for
new technologies. This takes time. But it's actually a fairly clear and straightforward path and how you get there. And it doesn't require global
trust of each other it just requires an understanding of the problem.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, this is such a great point as well we can throw in social media perhaps and misinformation there another catch thing, because that's
at the core of the book as well which is not just that two superpowers like China and the United States have to come together and work on this.
But you specifically point to sort of individuals and citizens in America specifically, but we can use other examples, that they have to come
together as well and not be so polarized?
BREMMER: That's one of the most hopeful parts of the book is that these solutions don't require Xi Jinping and Biden to sit in the room and hammer
it out. The fact is that you have a multiplicity of actors that are capable of wielding power to respond.
The Europeans end up playing a big role, for example, in response to COVID. And in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in response to climate
that ends up being much more interesting as part of the solution.
You see this with banks, with corporations, with tech companies, with mayors and governors in the United States, when Trump pulled the U.S. out
of the Paris Climate Accord, it didn't really matter to the long term trajectory of the United States in reducing carbon, because so many other
actors were committed to it.
So I mean, for those that look at Washington, and say, my God, it's just so dysfunctional in the beltway right now, my response is, I agree, and we're
probably not going to fix that in the next five to 10 years. But we can work around it.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, society has to get on with it anyway. I wish we could apply some of your optimism to my previous discussion, which is trying to
find a way to get green and address the food crisis that's going on around the world from Ukraine. And where did where do you think things stand where
the war I can say in Russia's position?
BREMMER: You know, I - it didn't feature in a big way in my book in the same way that the gun crisis in the U.S. didn't feature in the same way my
book because of climate change. We didn't do much on climate change and still it started affecting us until it was about Florida and California and
Italy.
I mean, every citizen in the world seeing that it's a crisis for them in their backyards. The food crisis is kind of where the climate crisis was 20
or 30 years ago. It's largely going to be a crisis for the poorest and most disenfranchised around the world and so there are a lot of great words a
lot of per formative political response but not a lot of money behind it.
[09:40:00]
BREMMER: And that's kind of the way we've been responding to the gun crisis in the United States, or the crack cocaine crisis in the 80s, and 90s a
whole bunch of headlines, not a lot of there in terms of.
You know, it's not enough of a kick in the ass to force, you know, people with power to actually change their application of resources to start
making decisions different. We're a number of the global crises that I write about in the book, are actually big enough to force us to act.
CHATTERLEY: Ian I didn't intend to go here, but you did. So I'm going to go there. Do you think anything changes in the United States over some form of
gun control? Clearly, it's a top debate right now in Congress. But the fear is that we go no further, once again?
BREMMER: I think it is more possible today that you have some form of incremental improvement in regulation, you know, assault weapons, not being
available to people fewer than 21, as opposed to 18, maybe some more red flag laws.
But these are tiny, incremental changes that react - if you ask me, do I believe that are the Americans prepared to come together politically, and
legislate a response to gun control that would bring the United States in line with every other advanced industrial economy in the world? The answer
to that is a very clear no.
CHATTERLEY: I unfortunately, and heartbreakingly that's the perfect illustration I think of the conversation that we were just having. Yes, how
many times did you have to edit this book, by the way, given the timing and what's in it, and what's going on?
BREMMER: It wasn't that. I mean, I started the book when the pandemic already hit. So I sort of knew the contours. The issue was that the book
had to go to bed on February 26th so on the 24th, the invasion of Ukraine started.
I had to talk to my office and say, literally every meeting that can be taken off my calendar for next 48 hours. I'm just going to be working on
writing this. And that's what I did. And thank God I mean, you look, it could have been the February 23rd it could have been worse.
CHATTERLEY: Always great to chat to you. It's a great read thank you!
BREMMER: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: Ian Bremmer the President and Founder of Eurasia Group. OK, coming up, how Europe's homegrown EV battery maker is gearing up to
challenge big Asian players that's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". And to a supercharged global battery battle I can't believe I said that right Swedish battery maker
north volt has recently become the first European company to ship EV batteries.
It's secured more than $50 billion worth of contracts from big automakers, including BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo Northvolt says its mission is to not
just build better batteries, but greener batteries, too.
Let's discuss joining us now the CEO of Northvolt Peter Carlsson. He's also Tesla's Former Vice President of Supply Chain. Peter, great to have you on
the show! Explain what this moment means and what it means to for Europe's electric vehicle ambitions?
PETER CARLSSON, CEO NORTHVOLT: Well, it's great to be with you. It's a big moment for us. Of course, you know, we were going live five years ago, and
they have been building this factory that is now shipping towards the big electric aviation makers in from Northern Sweden.
And it's been a tough project to run, you know, to build the bigger factory during COVID during the global semiconductor crisis during logistics, but
now we're here and we're starting it up. And we're starting shipments. It's in small scale yet, but we're scaling up big and we're really, really great
to be where we are.
CHATTERLEY: Some images now and I think you with your Tesla experience, but also from what we discussed on a regular basis with the challenges of
building never mind in a pandemic, Peter, it's a cash burn business.
Do you have enough money given the promises of contracts that we mentioned in the introduction? Are you in a position now where you can ramp up?
CARLSSON: Absolutely. I mean, we've had very, very strong backing by both financial investors like Goldman Sachs, Pension Funds, et cetera, and but
also industrial players like Volkswagen. So we are well positioned with good liquidity and we can for sure ramp up this as we plan.
CHATTERLEY: About battery manufacturing though for you this is also about not swapping one vulnerability which is our reliance on fossil fuels for
another which you could argue would be demand for the minerals and the metals that go into these batteries.
So a huge part of the premise I think of your business too is this promise to have, I believe at least 50 percent of the materials recycled by 2030.
It's this circular story of battery creation and EV's which is the only way that we're going to allow all the automakers that are making promises of
EVs achieve that over the coming years?
CARLSSON: Yes, I mean, for sure, your demands on critical raw materials such as nickel lithium cobalt et cetera is going to be growing enormously
and part of building really a sustainable business is to make recycling.
And here we're using a hydrometallurgical process to separate old batteries and really being able to make new batteries out of the older materials. And
this is a very, very important part of our circular strategy. And we will be coming online with what we think is the largest recycling refinery in
Europe here during mid-next year, in conjunction with the current factory.
CHATTERLEY: I'm very excited about that. What's that going to mean for cost because it's such a huge chunk of the cost of the vehicle now? If we can
incorporate recycling as we push forward, what's it going to mean, in terms of the cost of the battery along with new technology?
CARLSSON: Well, you know, for sure, there's going to be a startup phase, where the recycling logistics flows and processes that needs to be
optimized. So there is going to be a startup phase where recycling is going to be a little bit more expensive.
But that very, very soon, I think, at scale, there will be a significant benefit of recycling battery materials and that should be of course, shared
by all players and the similar way that you see in the aluminum industry and others.
CHATTERLEY: I want to ask you about hiring as well, because clearly, this is a huge growth industry and its exciting industry and it's
technologically advanced too? Peter, do you have any trouble hiring?
And I just wanted to get your sense, particularly from having been a former Tesla employee of Elon Musk's suggestion that everyone has to be back at
work, there is no working from home. How is that going to impact your recruitment drive if you tried to do the same for Northvolt and would you?
CARLSSON: Well, so overall in recruitment we were able to last year to recruit roughly 1800 people, but we've had over 100,000 applicants too at
the company.
[09:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Wow!
CARLSSON: Yes. And I think it's driven out of two things. One is, you know, we have a very, very clear purpose to develop and do a major impact and
build the world's greenest batteries. And secondly, we're also being offering pretty much every employee to also become shareholder in the
company.
And I think the combination of this have made a large interest to join the company. But there is there is a scarce of competence in this industry is
growing incredibly fast. So it's going to continue being a war on talent here for quite some time.
CHATTERLEY: Yes or no. Can they work from home?
CARLSSON: They can work.
CHATTERLEY: OK.
CARLSSON: They can work from home but - but we'd like to see them in the office.
CHATTERLEY: You are making a firm line. Just checking to see if there's a bit of competition there for you to come back and talk to you soon. I have
loads more questions, but as always, I've taken too much time, great to chat to you, sir thank you! Peter Carlsson, CEO of Northvolt.
CARLSSON: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: All right, coming up, butting heads over bots. Data deluge reports that Twitter will give Elon Musk all the data he could ever want
and a whole lot if he didn't find out why?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". Elon Musk's data deadlock with Twitter may soon be over. The platform is planning to comply with Musk's
demands for more data to help him assess the number of fake accounts or bots. That's according to "The Washington Post".
Paul R. LA Monica is with us now, Paula; I'm going to be a five year old on a long journey and say, am we there yet? I mean, we can talk about this
data in too much data and whatever it happens and how you define what a bot is, quite frankly? Is this an excuse? Or is the deal going to get done?
PAUL R. LA MONICA, CNN REPORTER: I still honestly don't know to tell you the truth. I think that you are correct to point out that this might be yet
another potential reason for Musk to try and walk away even though that would open up the possibility of litigation.
I think Twitter really wants to hold Elon Musk's feet to the fire. He says he wants to buy them for $54.20 a share. And Twitter really needs that to
happen because it last checked Twitter stock is around 40.
I think it makes sense that Musk is you know growing a little bit more reluctant, the more that he looks at Twitter, but it all again begs the
question why did he impulsively decide to do this deal without any real due diligence in the first place?
There's due diligence after the fact seems a little curious at best, but I do think that there are legitimate questions Julia, about how much spam and
fake accounts and bots are on the platform? Twitter says that you know they let advertisers can see some of this data if they pay for it.
[09:55:00]
MONICA: And they claim it's only real less than 5 percent. But there's a lot of skepticism. Some people think that it's 10 to 15 percent, perhaps.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. And in his defense, you can't get access to that kind of data on the due diligence before you make an offer. So there has to be some
information sharing but it does feel sort of very hostile.
So I think the right questions are being asked I just wonder whether perhaps it's a way to negotiate a lower price or to your point perhaps not
doing the deal at all. Yes, early enthusiasm, perhaps later, regret.
MONICA: There - your way.
CHATTERLEY: Paul R. LA Monica, thank you! OK, that's it for the show. If you've missed any of our interviews today, there will be on my Twitter and
Instagram pages. You can search for @jchatterleycnn. "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson is up next.
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END
