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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Monitor: More than 1,300 Anti-War Protesters Arrested in Russia; IMF Chief: Central Banks have no Choice but to Raise Rates; World Bank Delivers $31.7B to help Address Climate Change; Russian Army Divided over how to Continue; Iran Rocked by Largest Anti-Government Protests in Years; HM Queen Maxima pays Tribute to Britain's Queen Elizabeth. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired September 22, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNNI HOST: A warm welcome to "First Move", this Thursday, I'm Julia Chatterley. And it's great to be back with you two key things
today developments in the war in Ukraine and how the world's Central Banks are responding to the spillover effects like soaring inflation as we're all
well aware.
And articulate this; U.S. futures are unchanged as Investors digest a further three quarters of a percentage point hike from the U.S. Federal
Reserve on Wednesday. The hike of course was expected the prospect of significantly more hikes, less so. The Fed predicting interest rates of
over 4 percent by year end and still near 3 percent, even in 2025. So that's the higher for longer issue that we've been dealing with now for
many weeks.
The Bank of England, not to be outdone, also moving higher and swiftly a short while ago raising interest rates by half a percentage point that
takes interest rates now to 2.25 percent. That to be clear is the highest level since the financial crisis as U.K. inflation hovers at almost 10
percent.
Now the World Bank in the meantime, warning lockstep rate hikes by major Central Banks could spark a global recession. We discussed the global
spillover effects and perhaps how to prevent them with their Chief David Malpass later this hour.
Now, the tough tone continued through the Asia session to following U.S. stocks, lower Of course, in Wednesday's session, you can see the broader
picture there meanwhile, Japan also taking aggressive action intervening to support the currency, the Yen, against the ever stronger U.S. dollar that
for the first time since 1998.
We'll discuss all this coming up later in the show.
But for now, let's get to our top story. More than 1300 anti-war protesters have been detained across Russia amid signs of a surge in the number of
people trying to leave the country.
On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin declared there would be a quote, partial mobilization, calling military reservists up into the army.
Matthew Chance joins us now to discuss this. Matthew, good to have you with us anecdotal people are desperately looking for flights to leave the
country. As I mentioned there 1300 people we believe arrested for protesting whether or not the Russian people believe this is a war or
otherwise, this call up of reservists certainly has spooked people.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I think, look, it's fair to say everybody knows in Russia what this is? They know it's a war.
It's just that they've chosen for the past seven months to go along with the Kremlin's line. That is just a limited military operation; it doesn't
really affect their daily lives.
So let's give it our tacit support.
But you know, what's happened over the course of the past 24 hours with the announcement of what the Kremlin calls a partial mobilization, in other
words, forcing people who had not volunteered to be in the army to join the army and go to the battle. That's forced the people of Russia to, you know,
see this for what it is, and it's all suddenly become very real to them.
And that's why you're seeing this outpouring of protests on the streets of towns and cities across the country. We've seen some very dramatic scenes
of Police trying to arrest protesters. And protesting, of course, in that context is completely illegal in Russia, at the moment of the current
draconian laws.
And it's why we're seeing these other equally dramatic scenes of people lining up to try and at various border crossings trying to get out of the
country, one thing they are coming to us from the Finnish authorities, the Finnish border guard, which is to the West of Russia, saying that they've
had 4000 people more than 4000, in fact, from Russia, trying to come out in a single day, which is substantially higher than they would expect to have
on a weekday. And we're seeing similar scenes and similar figures coming out from various border cross points around Russia.
CHATTERLEY: --we're showing images now to our viewers of people being rounded up protesters being put into buses, some of them are women, we know
some of them are minors as well, that their children, what happens? What do we know about the people that they get arrested that have been arrested?
CHANCE: I mean, it's interesting, some of them are right. Some of them are women. In fact, I think the independent monitoring group that watches all
of this activity is saying that 51 percent, more than half of those who have been detained are women, women or children, basically, which implies
it's not just men who are going to be called up to the service that are protesting. It's also their families, their wives, their children.
And so that's an aspect of it, in terms of what happens to them. Well, I mean, one very disturbing report we got from the monitors as well, is that
some of the people who qualify, obviously, who are being detained are being given their summons papers to the Russian Military at the Police station
where they're being held.
[09:05:00]
CHANCE: So you know they're being taken straight off the streets where they've been protesting against the draft. And then put straight into the
Military which seems very harsh indeed even by, you know, the pretty harsh standards that you normally expect from the Russian authorities.
CHATTERLEY: Matthew, we'll continue to track this. Thank you so much for joining us today Matthew Chance there! Now CNN understands that internal
dissent is a growing factor inside the Russian Military, as Ukrainian forces advance sources saying that President Putin himself is giving
directions to generals in the field a highly unusual way of conducting warfare to say the least.
Joining us now on this is CNN, Katie Bo Lillis. Katie Bo, great to have you with us on this, too! We let's be clear, this is not the West. This is not
a democracy. This is a communist country. But nonetheless, what are you hearing about the direct interaction between President Putin and his
generals?
KATIE BO LILLIS, CNN REPORTER: Well Julia, this is incredibly unusual. And what we understand is that President Vladimir Putin is directly
communicating with generals on the front line providing directions and this is just a really unleveled unusual level of sort of micromanaging in any
modern military.
And but what I think it really shows is this very dysfunctional command structure that has kind of plagued the, the Russian military since the
beginning of this invasion, we also understand from our sources, that the Russian military is really internally divided over how best to respond to
this unexpected Ukrainian success on the battlefield, what the strategy should be, where they should move troops to reinforce flagging front lines.
For example, intelligence intercepts have actually picked up Russian officers on the front lines kind of bickering amongst themselves, as well
as complaining to friends and family members back home, in Russia about the directions that they're receiving from Moscow.
So you take all this together, Julia, and I think what you have is a Russian military that is still struggling, not just with strategy and
planning, but with just basic military command and control. And of course, this is also coming, as we've seen these sort of major announcements out of
Moscow in the past few days to include this partial mobilization order, which is clearly designed, at least in part to try to solve Russia's
extreme manpower issues on the battlefield and in theory make some of this decision making easier for the Russian military.
But of course, if you talk to us officials who are closely tracking this, they say that while they have seen some small numbers of Russian troops
move back towards the East troops that had initially fled in the face of this Ukrainian counter-offensive, rather.
They just don't anticipate that Russia at this point is even capable of mounting any kind of significant military operation. And it's not clear
that this mobilization order is certainly not in the short term going to allow Russia to sort of making a substantial difference on the battlefield.
So what I'm hearing from my sources at this point is that Russia just is without a whole lot of options at this moment.
CHATTERLEY: That's fascinating insight into the command structure of what's going on for the Russian army and we seem to be seeing it playing out on
the battlefield too. Katie Bo, thank you. Katie Bo Lillis there!
LILLIS: Thanks.
CHATTERLEY: OK, let's bring it back to the United States now and Investors are about to begin their first full trading day since the Federal Reserve's
third big rate hike in a row. Policymakers raised interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point bringing the new target range to the highest
it's been since the global financial crisis back in 2008.
Rahel Solomon joins us now on this. Rahel, another three quarters of a percentage point and more to come was the message. But actually, one of the
standout quotes for me, and I've got it here from Jay Powell was that he simply doesn't know where this is taking the economy. No one knows whether
this process will lead to recession, or if so how significant that recession would be.
RAHEL SOLOMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's a great point, Julia that "Got my attention to right". I mean, this really is a great mystery in terms of how
we look on the other side of this. We have never seen rate hikes of this magnitude at this pace, and modern history, you'd have to go back to the
early 80s, to even see something similar.
But here's what we learned yesterday from the Fed. In terms of what this outlook is looking like in terms of unemployment, the Fed expects that to
increase to 4.4 percent. To put that in perspective, right now, we're at 3.7 percent, which is low in terms of its benchmark federal funds rate, it
expects that to increase to 4.6 percent, which as you pointed out, we're now at about 3.25 percent.
And here's what I think really tells you everything you need to know Julia, about what's ahead in terms of U.S. GDP and the outlook that is barely now
positive according to projections out eking out 0.2 percent according to the most recent forecasts we got yesterday. Julia, just a few months ago,
the forecast for the year was 1.7 percent.
[09:10:00]
SOLOMON: So that really sets it all in terms of what the Fed expects to come in terms of the economy acknowledging really that this is a shifting
economy a worsening economy but Fed Chair Powell, will saying there is no painless way to do this. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEROME POWELL, CHAIR OF U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE: We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that there isn't we have
to get supply and demand back into alignment. And the way we do that is by slowing the economy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SOLOMON: And Julia, you could argue it's a tough message to deliver. But it's also a tough pill to swallow this, of course coming and a week where
we have heard from or will continue to hear from Central Banks around the world, as many not just us here in the U.S. in terms of Federal Reserve,
but other Central Bankers around the world also rushed to raise rates to try to tame global inflation.
So the pain that we appear likely in store for others, our friends around the world could also be in store for as well. It really is a scary sight
and a big question mark in terms of what this looks like on the other side of this.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and economic pain is the price they're having to pay whether they're willing or not to tame inflation. And that's the message
pretty much globally. Rahel thank you for that Rahel Solomon there!
OK, straight ahead, the World Bank says actually aggressive rate hikes aren't the only solution to tackling inflation we speak to its President
about the state of the global economy, and more right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move" to a warning from the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund "there will be people on the
streets" around the world unless steps are taken to ease inflation. Kristalina Georgieva also told us CNN's Christiane Amanpour that
policymakers have no choice but to raise interest rates to fight inflation.
However, the World Bank also has a warning that aggressive policy tightening could take the global economy into a recession. And it's arguing
there are other options than just raising interest rates.
President David Malpass says policymakers could shift from trying to reduce consumption to boosting production to ease inflation. Joining us now to
discuss the World Bank President David Malpass, David, fantastic to have you with us as always, I want to talk about the fear first and your fear is
that in order to bring inflation back down to target rates are going to have to rise to such an extent that it could create recession around the
world.
[09:15:00]
CHATTERLEY: It could also correct financial crises in the developing world how close are we to those kinds of risks?
DAVID MALPASS, PRESIDENT OF WORLD BANK GROUP: Hi, Julia, well, there's a sharp slowdown going on now. And it looks like it's going to extend into
2023. So that's one of the worries for developing countries that they face a persistent global slowdown. So the question is how to get through the
inflation problem as quickly as possible, and then move on to a better world a better growth environment on the other side.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, you're saying there are ways to tackle this, there are ways to get inflation under control, to have a stable currency to have
faster growth. And you have to shift from reducing consumption by way of higher interest rates to suppress demand and suppress spending to boosting
production. Makes sense to me, the question is how?
MALPASS: The government is very involved in the amount of production that is done in the world that comes both on the spending side, if they focus a
lot of their spending and borrowing money from capital markets, and then spending it on demand, that's going to be an inflationary outcome. And on
the monetary policy side, Central Banks have other tools than interest rate hikes.
I think they have had to raise interest rates so far. But the question is are there other things that they could be doing that, that are more
oriented toward encouraging production, I think they have a big impact on the future outlook of businesses, and therefore they can get more
production through communication, also through regulatory policy.
And also, I think that the bond buying policies of the Central Banks actually guide capital in ways that aren't ideal, from a production
standpoint that goes to big businesses into government.
CHATTERLEY: Is the message of Central Banks then today, particularly the developed markets, Central Banks. And we saw the Federal Reserve yesterday,
again, hiking rates and indicating more to come, you've done enough now. And actually, there needs to be a balance between the monetary side and the
fiscal side a better balance.
MALPASS: I think that's true, I think you probably need to make adjustments in both meaning on the fiscal side, make clear that governments are
encouraging production rather than discouraging demand and then on the monetary policy side, the same thing that you need to go at it from both
sides. And there are tools to do that.
And, Julia, the important part is this is really important for the bottom half of the income scales worldwide, they need more growth, in order to get
out of the recession that seems already to have been long lasting because of COVID. But that now threatens the risk is that it goes into 2023 and
even beyond.
CHATTERLEY: You have to explain that point, I think, to my viewers, as well, because there will be Central Banks listening to what you're saying
Central Bankers listening to what you're saying and saying, actually, that's exactly what we're doing. Yes, we're making the cost of credit, more
expensive, higher through hiking interest rates. But if we don't get inflation under control, it is the poorest people that spend the highest
proportion of their income on food and fuel, actually, that are hurt the most by inflation, too.
MALPASS: That's exactly right. And that's one of the tragedies of inflation right now. So it's really important to get price stability to recover that
and bring inflation down. But then the question is there more tools that could be used to do that? Or is it just resting on interest rate hikes, I
worry that if it's all on rate hikes, and it's going to point to a long lasting recession, especially for the poor.
CHATTERLEY: And one of the obvious things and you've mentioned it you are investing in more sources of energy. And the U.S. has the ability to
produce that we're talking about the production side. And then the United States can provide cheaper sources of fuel to regions like Europe that at
the moment struggling with a dramatic fuel crisis. What's the holdup David in your mind?
MALPASS: Part of it is the huge realignment Europe was very dependent on Russia, for coal, for oil and for natural gas. And so as those were
reduced, then that puts demands on the whole world for those fossil fuels. But then, in addition, it's simply having enough energy, enough electricity
is a challenge for people around the world.
And you know, in the developing countries, there are as many as 800 million people without any electricity access at all. And so we're working hard to
try to expand that access. And the point I'm making is that as we're in this realignment of energy, because of the Russia war, and because of the
fast growth of energy demands around the world.
Then that it's incumbent on people to find cleaner ways to make energy there needs to be more production of cleaner energy.
[09:20:00]
CHATTERLEY: And David this case for a bigger point, and I know where you weigh, you know where I'm going to take this discussion. But we know what
we've got to do in the short term; we have the longer term where we transition to fully clean, renewable energies. But we also have the medium
term.
And I think there are people out there that are saying that if we don't rely on less dirty, but not perfectly cleaned sources of energy like gas,
we could end up in the medium term in a situation where we have a worse energy crisis than we face today, because we're under investing in less
dirty but not entirely clean energy. Would you agree with that - my words carefully?
MALPASS: That's good; I think the carbon intensity of various human activities is really important in greenhouse gas emissions, and also in
climate change.
And so as we look at it, we need to find ways to have less carbon intensive activity around the world. That means agricultural policies, industrial
policies, fossil fuel use, and methane, where and the World Bank is leading in all these efforts, we have diagnostics to try to identify where the big
emissions are coming from.
And then what is a path forward for those emitters to get out of that those emissions? It's a challenge, because as you know, the developing countries
say, well, we didn't create this problem, and it's very expensive to fix. So how are you going to help us fix it, we're working on all of those
problems.
CHATTERLEY: Absolutely, and at a time when they've spent a great deal of money, as a result of the pandemic too. Even having the financing in place
to put those renewable energy investments into places is a huge challenge at this moment.
And that's why the headline should be focused on the fact that the World Bank Group has provided a near record will near $32 billion this fiscal
year to aid countries on their path to identifying and enabling climate projects.
But unfortunately, their headlines aren't on that record level of spending. David, as you well know, they're actually focused on you. And some of the
conversations that you've had about climate change what's causing climate change, and it's led to accusations that you're in certain quarters that
you're a climate change denier. Can I ask you outright David, are you a climate change denier?
MALPASS: No, I'm not. And I don't know the political motivations behind that. It's clear that greenhouse gas emissions are coming from manmade
sources, including fossil fuels, methane, the fit their agricultural uses industrial uses. And so we're working hard to change that I'm not a denier.
And I don't know why that message, you know, there it gets tangled up. And I'm not always good at conveying the exact message.
I think if you look at the record my record at the World Bank, we've really tried to focus people on impactful projects that rather than speaking in
the abstract, at conferences, about the goals of the effort, we really need to be identifying countries and projects where there can be reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions and as we talked before, less carbon intensive activity by people around the world.
CHATTERLEY: And David, I get your point; being live doing anything is a challenge. And I understand that as well as anyone else. But just in case
there is any confusion over this. Do you agree that the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming?
MALPASS: Yes, clearly, I was, you know, on a panel on Tuesday, where that wasn't the question. And so as we look at it, you know, it is important how
people frame the question, and then I don't always do the best job in answering questions, or hearing what the questions are.
I think what we, what I want to do is focus a lot of attention from the whole world community on the need for really addressing and having actual
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. And that's what's been lacking in the efforts. Now, there's, you know, been lots of hot air, but it's very
hard to get people to focus on which countries and which industries are going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
CHATTERLEY: I think part of the challenge here and perhaps where some of the confusion comes in, as well as some of the projects that you're
choosing, and we've talked about LNG, one recent project I know that the World Bank Group was investing in was in Mozambique. It would help I think
if the World Bank itself could provide some clarity on this is what's happening in the short to medium term. Here is at least our target in the
future for when we will no longer invest in fossil fuel industries at any kind.
[09:25:00]
CHATTERLEY: Is that a possibility at any point in the short term David that you can actually put a date on it and say look we get it. We get the
concern this is what we do tightened? Is that a possibility at any point in the short term, David, that you can actually put a date on it and say,
look, we get it, we get the concern? This is what we're doing in the short to medium term.
And this is our goal for the longer term where we say, no more investment. Are you able to do that? And do you think that would assure perhaps those
that the U.S. Treasury, those like Former Vice President Al Gore to that has also weighed in on this debate? Are you able to do that?
MALPASS: So let me go through the history a little bit because it often gets misstated the World Bank stopped doing investments in coal in 2012. So
it was one of the world leaders in discontinuing that kind of investment, recognizing that it was very carbon intensive. So as we go forward, and you
mentioned a project in Mozambique, that was a project that was strong, had strong shareholder support within the World Bank around the world.
And the reason for that is because it made it possible to avoid more carbon intensive activities. I have been in meetings I've seen over 20 heads of
State in the last two, three days. And almost in every meeting, there's discussion of the backsliding that's going on from Europe and other parts
of the world into coal and into a high carbon intensity fuels.
So as we go forward, there has to be a way to have energy access in developing countries, that's less carbon intensive. And that's what our
goal is, that's part of our mission of pulling people out of poverty, alleviating poverty, and raising living standards for everyone around the
world.
CHATTERLEY: I think there is a lot of finger pointing going on, to your point, wherever you look in the world. And actually, you mentioned
politics, and you were appointed by, I think we can call Former President Trump a climate change skeptic. He did pull the United States out of the
Paris Climate Accord as well, do you think in some ways you're being punished for the perceived sins of the pointer, and I'm saying it with a
wry smile.
MALPASS: I suppose I don't know the political motivations. But to your point, though, I wasn't appointed by President Trump, but I was nominated.
And then I went to meet too many of the world's capitals, met with their leaders discussed policy directions, and received unanimous support from
the board in my appointment as President of the World Bank.
So I'm proud of that. I'm proud of the record that I've done both on developments where we're working so hard to pull to help people move
forward through these crises. And then also on climate where we've been, the World Bank is by far the biggest of funder of climate in FY in our
FY22, which ended June 30, we funded $31.7 billion of climate efforts. Those are projects that actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mitigate
or help with adaptation.
I met yesterday or the day before with Prime Minister Sharif of Pakistan, where they've been hit hard by floods. I met this morning with the
President of Burkina Faso where they've been hit hard by desertification and by droughts.
I met last week with the President of Somalia, which has been hit hard by droughts there. All of these are aspects of climate change that are that
are requiring efforts in countries and costing a lot of money. The World Bank is there and fully engaged. And one thing that frustrates me is it's
tempting for other entities in the world to say, well, the World Bank's not doing enough. Well, the reality is the World Bank's doing more really than
any anyone else; we put more into climate change commitments than the entire G7 governments combined. Which is, and so I invite everyone to do
more efforts in this area.
You know, I suppose I'm a tempting target. But I want to, you know, we need to push forward, we've got lots of activities underway at the World Bank,
where we're leading on methane, we're coming forward with these very important diagnostics called CCDRS, country by country around the
developing world, showing what they can do to deal with climate change. These are seminal core diagnostics for the world, and everyone's using
them. So I'd like the World Bank to be able to get credit for that.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, and that needs to be a broader transition plan. Let's be honest. And if only governments could come up with their own comprehensive
climate plans, and perhaps the United States now has it's just named something else, which is also playing to the politics of the situation.
[09:30:00]
CHATTERLEY: Final question David and I appreciate your time and the time that we spent talking about this.
And I mentioned Al Gore, Vice President Al Gore did call for you to be removed. Can I just confirm that you, as you've said, you've traveled
around the world, you have the confidence, you still have the confidence of the board members of the World Bank?
MALPASS: I do. We passed our budget in June, there was unanimous support, and there's been strong support for the directions that we're taking. And
even the U.S. has been very strongly supportive of our efforts on debt transparency, which is so important that they lead in a lot of these areas.
And they've invited the World Bank to do more. And I embrace that we you know, each month, we announced a major new activity in climate that that
furthers the effort. So it actually is supportive to have people calling for more efforts.
What I think is not so helpful is to cut and do name calling. But what I would like to do is really have people focus on the impact the World Bank
is having. And if there are ways we can have more impact I want to hear about it.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's personal for us all we need to work together. David, great to chat to you sir, thank you so much.
MALPASS: Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: David Malpass President of the World Bank there. We're back after.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back. Russia is seeing an upsurge in opposition to its war in Ukraine. Dozens of protests are popping up across the country
sparking a security backlash and large numbers of arrests, the now growing reports of dissent within Vladimir Putin's army.
All this comes after the Russian president declared a partial mobilization that could see 300,000 reservists called up. The question is what next?
Joining us now is Mark Hertling from U.S. Army Commanding General of Europe and the seventh Army, General Hertling, always great to have you on the
show.
[09:35:00]
CHATTERLEY: We need your wisdom and you have vast experience of training troops for combat readiness throughout your career. Can I just ask a very
simple question to begin? How long does it take to prepare and deploy effectively? Important word 300,000 reservists when they've had what one
year of basic training Max and no updates?
LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, Julia and thanks for having me, first of all, and I hope I can provide you a little bit of
wisdom. But what I'll tell you are we using an acronym in the army called dots depends on the situation. And what I suggest is the situation in
Russia is not good.
And the reason for that are the reservists that Mr. Putin is calling up anyone, any male between the ages of 18 to 65. And he's stopping the flow
of those individuals who are trying to get out of the country, and they have a lack of support from the civilian population.
And when they did go through training, back, if any of them were soldiers before, it was probably one year conscription, with very limited basic
training, and exceeding limited unit training, which we've seen, resulting in dysfunction and disaster in the currently deployed Russian Army.
So it would be very difficult if these soldiers or these reserves were trained, they're not. But you add to that the problem that 300,000, that's
a massive number, going through relatively their community level, recruiting stations and mobilization stations to get back to the fight will
cause a phenomenal effort on the part of a Russian military that just doesn't have the people to expend on that kind of effort. You add to that,
then that even if some of these individuals do get to the front lines, they're going to be joining units, excuse me, with low morale, that have
been mauled in a now almost eight month long fight.
And there, they have not overcome the dysfunction that we've seen since the very start of this campaign. So other than all those things, I'm sure it'll
go swimmingly well for this mobilization.
CHATTERLEY: Other than that, what about equipment for these new troops, assuming that they get through the stage of actually gets them out there?
There are supply lines, the logistics; we'll be talking about this many troops? Is it a situation where perhaps at best they can replenish the
troops that they're losing and perhaps not much more?
GEN. HERTLING: Yes. Yes, I didn't even bring that up Julia and that's a great question to ask because you're not just talking about equipment.
You're even talking small things like uniforms, helmets, body armor rifles.
Then you get into where do you put these reservists, what kind of units and it gets back to the point that not all soldiers are created equal. Some are
infantry men, some are tankers. Some are logisticians, there's a need for intelligence, there's a need for engineers.
So then you have to kind of divide where these reserved mobile - these mobilized reserves will go, and what units they will fill in. So that
compounds the problem of this flow. And truthfully, the Russian military has not done well, in terms of their support and their logistics supply.
So when you're talking about manning and equipping of force, with equipment that has actually been a lot of equipment's been destroyed on this
battlefield in Ukraine. You have to ask yourself the question, what are in the reserves, what are in the warehouses, anything from uniforms and rifles
all the way to tanks and artillery pieces.
We've already seen Russia pushing forward, very old tanks like T62s, some very old artillery pieces to replace some of the things that have been
destroyed on the battlefield. You're showing right now BMP or right there is a BMP and BRDM two different types of personnel carriers.
There's only so many of those things that are in the act of Russian force, and then less so in the warehouses in the reserve force.
CHATTERLEY: General Hertling, we had the former defense minister of Ukraine on the show a couple of weeks ago. And he said his intelligence was telling
him that, that no one's making decisions, and that they're pushing the decision making higher and higher up the chain of command.
And the result is that it's centralizing control and hampering their ability to operate and make decisions on the ground. And then our own
reporting for CNN now is suggesting that Vladimir Putin is directly speaking to his generals in the field.
Again, this is not really comparable to a situation like the U.S. army or a Western army simply because of the social structure and the kind of
operational framework that we're talking about.
But what's the utility function of that and what's the impact of that having a president speaking to generals directly in the field?
[09:40:00]
GEN. HERTLING: It's not a good sign. And again, it shows a dysfunction within the Russian military. We saw from the very beginning Julia that
there was confusion about what Russia in general was in charge of the entire front.
And when you're talking about a front edge in Ukraine that in phase one, extended about 2500 kilometers, that is usually divvied up to different
area commanders that didn't appear to be happening and intelligence, I'm not pivoted - classified intelligence anymore.
But intelligence seemed to indicate that they had no individual generals in charge of each one of the different attack axes. That didn't change much
when they went the phase two in April, and they were fighting in the Donbas.
And what we're seeing now is there have been some generals placed in the positions that have only been there for a couple of days and then been
relieved, as an example, the general the Russian general in charge of the front in Kharkiv.
He was there a total of 15 days before he was relieved because of the defeat there. So when you funnel all of that up in a hierarchical structure
to the president of a country who does not have a military background, it's reminiscent truthfully of Hitler in World War II, overcoming the dot
desires and thoughts of his well-trained German General Staff and saying, I know better than all of you do, and it resulted in there's no other way to
say it, then the murder of forces on the battlefield. It is a combination of hubris and incompetence.
CHATTERLEY: Ultimate dysfunction, Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, sir, thank you so much for talking to us today. And it was wisdom.
GEN. HERTLING: A pleasure, Julia. Thank you.
CHATTERLEY: Thank you. OK to Iran now and some of the biggest anti- government protests in years. Anger has been building, for the young woman - while in police custody last week.
For days now protesters have been demanding more rights for women in Iran. The government has responded with riot police tear gas and blocking the
internet in many places.
At least eight protesters have been reported to have died in the unrest. Outreach has spread to neighboring Turkey where thousands demonstrated
outside the Iranian consulate. Women have been publicly cutting their hair to protest against Iran strict dress code for women, which is enforced by
the regime's notorious morality police.
Jomana Karadsheh is in Istanbul for us now. The protests continue, despite the pushback despite the efforts to restrict communication. Jomana, what
more can we expect?
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Julia, it's very hard for us to verify and to confirm what is going on, on the ground right now,
especially as you mentioned, with the government appearing to throttle the internet in the country, according to the internet watchdog net blocks.
We haven't seen this sort of disruption to the internet in the country since the 2009 protests. But despite that, Julia, we have still been seeing
videos trickling out of the country last night.
You've seen we've seen thousands of people taking to the streets in protest in dozens of cities. And from the Kurdish northwest to the Capitol Tehran
to even more traditionally conservative cities like - Rasht, some really, really incredible images that we've been getting from Iran where you see
these young men and women in acts of defiance that are being described as unprecedented.
Something we have not seen on this scale before in the country women removing their head scarves and burning them these headscarf that they have
been forced to wear for decades. But also Julia, we have seen some older women on the streets as well.
At least one in this really powerful video, I hope we can bring up where we saw her last night this video emerged of her removing her headscarf waving
the headscarf and chanting death to the Supreme Leader incredible acts of defiance despite the crackdown.
As you mentioned, we have seen the United Nations experts coming out Amnesty International saying that authorities there have been using
unnecessary and excessive force in dealing with these protests.
According to Amnesty International, they documented at least a death among the protesters and scores others injured. They say that the security forces
have opened fire directly at the protesters using Birdshot and other metal pellets.
And you know Julia talking to Iranians outside the country; they're looking at this hoping that this could be a turning point for the country. But at
the same time, they are very worried about what they're seeing now.
The country descending into darkness basically not knowing what is going on, on the ground with these disruptions to the internet tactics we have
seen used in the past in dealing with the protests this crackdown.
[09:45:00]
KARADSHEH: And perhaps some ominous signs now when we're seeing statements coming out from the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps, basically
describing the protesters as rioters and warning them against vandalism and calling on police to secure the country and the nation. So a lot of people
are bracing for what might be to come in the coming days, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, Jomana as you said, acts of great defy and some will add acts of great bravery, I think to that too. Jomana Karadsheh, thank you so
much for that. OK, coming up next hot on the Federal Reserve's heels today.
It was the Bank of England's turn to step up the battle against inflation. We've got all the details, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". Let me give you a look at how our markets are performing this morning. U.S. stocks losing further ground
after sliding Wednesday. That is the pitch of the NASDAQ the underperformer.
They're off by eight tenths of 1 percent. The selloff carried over into Europe of course and Asia overnight where there was severe pressure on
stocks there too. The Feds hawkish tone on Wednesday driving the price action, Chair Jerome Powell warning that tackling inflation will inevitably
cause economic pain and are already is.
Now across the Atlantic, the Bank of England mirroring the Feds aggressive stance it raised interest rates by half a percent to a level last seen in
the financial crisis rates now stand at two and a quarter percent.
The bank says it will continue to raise interest rates despite believing the UK may already be in recession. Nina de Santos joins us now. Nina it
just makes painful reading the highest inflation of any g7 economy that the weakest growth, the outlook and now I saw that the currency falling to a
new 37 year low despite those interest rate rises. It's just painful.
NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's why it also comes one day Julia before a mini budget which is also perceived by many economists to be a
huge gamble here by Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister of this country. Remember not an Elected Prime Minister; she was one that was chosen by her
Conservative Party after Boris Johnson essentially lost their confidence.
Well, let's go back to those figures. As you pointed out, you know when it comes to inflation; it is at a 40 year high. These are huge numbers here,
there is one saving grace in the Bank of England's report is that not only did they revise their forecasts on economic outlooks saying that they'd no
longer be growth at the moment.
[09:50:00]
SANTOS: In fact, they already thought that the UK was in the midst of a technical recession, expecting the UK economy to already be in reverse gear
by naught point 1 percent at least for the moment.
But they did say that they thought inflation was likely to peak at just 11 percent next year, when I say just compare that to the previous forecast of
13 percent next year.
But when it comes to interest rates, the real concern here for many households across the country, and indeed right around the world is that
this isn't the end. This is part of the unprecedented the quick tightening cycle in this part of the world, but also around the rest of the world as
well.
Economists and also the markets, if you just look at the prices, they're pricing in, perhaps interest rates to rise to four, maybe even 5 percent by
next year. That is designed to try and make sure that people have a bit less money at the end of the month, because they're spending more on their
mortgages, perhaps to then spend less in terms of consumer spending.
But many people across this country have saying, well look, the problem, essentially, is that I'm not buying more; it's just that things are costing
so much more.
Now, when it comes to inflation, yes, the government has tried to temper that temporarily a little bit with some intervention in energy costs to
British citizens. But the real concern is that food prices are continuing to rise.
Now we'll also have soaring mortgage rates as well with those rates rising in that base effect, essentially potentially even doubling every month
until they get to about four to 5 percent, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's a triple quadruple whammy. We have to wait and see what that budget contains. And a lot of people are very closely watching
this, I think. Nina dos Santos, thank you.
SANTOS: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: Well, "First Move" after the break, stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move" and you're looking at pictures of the Prince and Princess of Wales, William and Kate thanking staff and
volunteers who were involved in the committal service for the late Queen Elizabeth II in Windsor, lots of photo taking and smiles there.
The royal families of course, are still in their official mourning period. And across the UK more than 26 million people watched Monday's funeral
service from Westminster Abbey on television.
And Her Majesty Queen Maxima of the Netherlands has described what it was like to be there. We had a chance to speak here in New York ahead of her
visit to the United Nations General Assembly.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
H.M. QUEEN MAXIMA, NETHERLANDS: It was a very emotional moment and of course, a very special moment. I was happy to be there to accompany the
royal family. But you know she was also symbol of constants and is ever changing. Well, you know, constancies is something that people are looking
forward to. So I think we're going to miss that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: And on tomorrow's show you can hear my interview with Her Majesty and her mission to improve financial inclusion around the world.
[09:55:00]
CHATTERLEY: And finally, on "First Move" NASA engineers say the unmanned Artemis moon rocket could launch as soon as Tuesday. And that depends on
the results of yesterday's fueling tests at the Kennedy Space Center.
They're working on a problem with leaking liquid hydrogen. That doesn't sound good, which force NASA describe its first attempt to launch earlier
this month. Mission managers will go over the test results and could confirm a launch date over the weekend.
We'll watch for that. And that's it for the show. If you've missed any of our interviews today they will be on my Twitter and Instagram pages, you
can search for @jchatterleycnn. I'm going to go and put my teeth back in. "Connect the World" is up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
END
