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First Move with Julia Chatterley
Flow of Russians Arriving in Georgia Grows; New Book Features Advice from Successful Investors; David Rubenstein Shares Insights from Billionaire Investors; Iranian State Media: At least 41 People Died in Protests; UK caps Energy Costs for Consumers, Business; NASA makes History by Crashing Spacecraft into Asteroid. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired September 27, 2022 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: A warm welcome to "First Move". I'm Julia Chatterley, great to have you with us.
And plenty coming up in the show this hour, including a growing backlash against President Putin's mobilization order many fighting age men in
Russia desperately attempting to leave the country and avoid that military draft plus, a major storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Ian
made landfall in Cuba a few hours ago. It's next target, Florida, we've got all the latest on that.
And speaking of hurricanes, of course the British pound in the eye of the storm stabilizing as you can see there today. Let's call it that after
falling to a record low versus the U.S. Dollar on Monday this as the U.K. plans to implement its biggest tax cuts in 50 years while borrowing tens of
billions of pounds or dollars equivalent watch much what it means though for the industry. We'll speak to the head of the British Beer and Pub
Association to discuss their battle for survival to amid all the challenges for the U.K. economy.
Meanwhile, take a look at this on Wall Street U.S. futures are tilting to the top side this after five straight days of losses the DOW entering bear
market territory on Monday so that means losses of 20 percent or more from its January high. The S&P 500 hit a fresh low for the year in Monday's
session too, but as you can see, was looking to bounce back a bit Goldman Sachs and BlackRock warning that the U.S. stock markets still hasn't priced
in the risk of a recession. And we'll discuss that too.
And coming up later this hour we speak to billionaire investor and author David Rubenstein. He's a Co-Founder of the private equity giant Carlyle
Group. In his latest book, he's talking to some of the world's most successful Investors, and getting crucial advice on how to build and
maintain wealth that we could all use some of that at this moment. But for now, let's get right to our top story.
And Rahel Solomon joins us now. Rahel, great to have you with us! Rate expectations have increased fairly significantly in the United States. I
think we've got another three quarters of a percentage point hike priced in for November. And there's also a lot of bad news in the stock markets. I
think the big question for Investors here is where's that equilibrium point? And Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, not so sure it's here.
RAHEL SOLOMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's a great question, Julia, good to be with you. And I think the answer is no one really knows including the
Fed, right in terms of how high they'll have to raise interest rates to really start to bring inflation down, or convincingly to its 2 percent
target.
In fact, Nomura, Julia putting out a note yesterday saying that it was raising its terminal rate forecast to get this 5.25 to 5.5 percent by March
of 2023. So that would imply and assume many more aggressive rate hikes are coming on the way to get to that point, Julia. But this, of course, comes
as inflation not just here in the U.S., but around the world remains at near 40 year highs.
I want to show you very quickly sort of what the DOW and the S&P have been doing just to give you a sense of just how volatile this year has been. But
of course, inflation is still hovering at 40 year highs of the latest reading here in the U.S. putting it at 8.3 percent. Again, the Feds target
is closer to 2 percent.
And in terms of how we get out of this, you know, Julia, up until this point, there had been a feeling certainly a hope among those of more
optimistic in the community that maybe we could reach that Goldilocks soft landing, right that maybe the Fed could raise rates, enough to curb
inflation, but not so much that it would crushed demand and really bring about a recession.
But it looks like those optimistic folks are becoming fewer and far between BlackRock, for example, saying we don't see a soft landing, adding that
means more volatility and pressure on risk assets. But at a time, Julia when the entire major averages the DOW, the S&P and the NASDAQ are all off
at least 20 percent.
The NASDAQ about 30 percent this year, that's really hard to wrap your head around, if Blackrock is warning that we may see more volatility we may see
more pressure on equities and yet, here we are.
CHATTERLEY: Some very great points raised there and we will continue to ask all of these questions. Rahel Solomon, thank you so much for that. OK,
let's move on now in parts of Ukraine, separatists are wrapping up what are widely considered sham referenda votes to join Russia. Ukraine and Western
countries like the United States have condemned the Russian backed referendums saying they won't recognize the results.
And at home Russia is facing growing opposition over its chaotic troop mobilization. Neighboring Georgia says the number of Russians arriving
there has nearly doubled since President Putin announced the plan.
[09:05:00]
CHATTERLEY: Ben Wedeman joins us now. Ben, we can talk about both of these things I think the first most important part is that the secession
referendums that are taking place sham referendums are expected to end today that the fear I think is Russia could move to annex these regions,
even within days.
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I don't think it's a fear. It's an inevitability that is going to happen. In fact, we heard the
head of this so called Donetsk People's Republic, saying that he expects Russia to be he rather expects Donetsk to be united with Russia very soon.
Now, the result that today is the last day of voting and it's in person voting at voting stations. And tomorrow, the final results will be
announced now tonight, I don't expect I don't recommend any of our viewers to stay up and wait for the results because the results are obvious.
Clearly, this is a sham referendum. And the result is a foregone conclusion now as this referendum winds down what we're seeing, certainly in this part
of the country, and Kharkiv. And also parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine in forces continued to gain ground in this massive counter offensive.
Yesterday, we were in one town that was taken just Saturday afternoon. And what we saw there were still dead Russian soldiers in the streets, we
counted 22. And we went through only a small part of that town, we saw a lot of destroyed Russian military hardware, and we saw many tanks that the
Russians abandoned and are essentially ready to be used by the Ukrainians against the Russians.
We spoke to one commander who was telling us that the Russian prisoners that they've taken are extremely demoralized, they complain about poor
food, poor equipment, poor leadership, lack of logistics. So this referendum is really a race against time for the Russians to make sure that
they create basically reality facts on the ground, so to speak, because the Ukrainians, as I said, are gaining ground steadily, in many of the areas
that the Russians would like to make part of the so called motherland, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Ben, there's other races against time, it seems going on as well. And that's Russians heading to the border, because they're fearful of
being called up for military service. There's been some wild numbers, reported of people trying to cross the border into Georgia. The Georgian
authorities have pushed back and said, look, some of these numbers that are being speculated about and nowhere near the scale that they're seeing, what
do we know?
WEDEMAN: Well, we know that thousands of people, mostly men have been trying to cross from Russia into Georgia. And we've just got information
that the Russians are setting up, basically, recruitment teams on the Georgian border to essentially stop young Russian men or just not even
young men, middle aged men; some kids some cases, older men from crossing into Georgia. In fact, they're being yanked into military service.
And as far as that military service is concerned, it sounds like they're basically being given uniforms, in most cases. And the plan is to send them
to the front now. Yesterday, one Russian newspaper was quoting sources from the Russian intelligence that more than 250,000 Russian men have left the
country since Vladimir Putin announced this so called partial mobilization, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Ben Wedeman there great to have you with us and thank you for that update! OK, let's move on Nord Stream, which is the operator of the
Nord Stream on that platform says there's been "Unprecedented Damage" to its pipelines under the Baltic Sea, that according to Reuters, Russia says
it's extremely concerned and that nothing can be ruled out as to the cause.
Denmark is sending two ships to the area to make sure no one enters the maritime zone.
Clare Sebastian is on the story for his unprecedented level of damage play in just one day. I think I can imagine what our viewers are thinking might
be the cause here but what are the facts as we know them so far?
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Julia, what we know is that this happened? I think I can pull up a map to show you exactly where around the
Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea two leaks to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 and one leak to the Nord Stream 1 leaks over northeast of the island,
the North Stream 2 south of the islands.
So this is three leaks to two different pipelines happening according to the operators simultaneously. That is what they are calling unprecedented.
[09:10:00]
SEBASTIAN: We know or at the Danish Armed Forces have established a prohibition zone around the areas of the leaks. The Swedish maritime
authority is also telling ships to stay five miles away. The Danish Armed Forces have put out some video of those leaks. They say that the largest
where you can actually see it looks a bit like a geezer, this sort of gas butting up onto the surface of the sea, the largest they say it's around
1000 kilometer diameter, the smallest around 200 meters.
So this very mysterious we don't know the cause as of yet. The Danish Prime Minister said she is very concerned and that was a sentiment echoed by the
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov who said they also find this extremely concerning he was asked about whether it could be sabotage and he said that
no possibility could be ruled out.
As you know the fate of these two pipelines, neither of them currently operational by the way the Nord Stream one stopped sending gas to Europe at
the beginning of this month, the Nord Stream 2 never got off the ground because of the war, but there is still we believe gas in those pipelines,
which is why these leaks are concerning and European gas prices Julia, up about 9 percent as of now. One analysts telling me that a war risk premium
is back in those prices.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, despite efforts to bring those prices down and I think at the potent point in that was that the Kremlin spokesperson was asked if it
was sabotage and he said at the moment no possibility can be ruled out to your point. Clare Sebastian, thank you so much for that.
OK, let's move to Cuba now where Hurricane Ian made landfall as a category three storm in the early hours Tuesday morning. Residents are dealing with
powerful winds and the threat of rising water levels. Patrick Oppmann joins us now from Havana. Patrick, just give us a sense of what you've seen? It's
not just about the strong winds it is also the risk of storm surge too.
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, so that's really the danger of we're waiting to see how that impacts Cuba. A right now in Havana the storm
is sitting to the west of us. The remote rural countryside of Cuba and people there has had a harrowing night. Some of the lost rooms some had
damage to the farms but no reports of any loss of life there.
Nearly 40,000 people evacuated from that province, ahead of the storm, according to the government. And here in Havana, it's been the bands of
wind and rain throughout the morning that is supposed to pick up as the storm moves off Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
And you could as you mentioned, get that storm surge because we are on a coastal city. So that really is the danger here. And even though that is
not going to get a direct hit thankfully from this storm, a lot of times in the city, which has such aging infrastructure has old buildings and have
not been maintained properly over the years.
A lot of times when you just have a big rainstorm you can have buildings collapse; going to pieces of buildings fall you can have heavy having
flooding. So that's what we're waiting to see here if that takes place. And even if Havana missing the storm still gets hit very hard by Ian, as it
passes by the city and finally leaves Cuba heading towards the Gulf close of the United States.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, Patrick stay safe and we'll continue to report in and check in with you throughout programming today. Patrick Oppmann there in
Havana sir thank you.
OK, we're going to take a break here on "First Move". But straight ahead low spirits that the British pubs many are warning they will survive the
winter is energy costs surge. We speak to the CEO of the British Beer and Pub Association. And a crash course in saving humanity NASA tackles or
being tangos with an asteroid 7 million miles from Earth. These are stunning pictures, and it's all coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:15:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". Some of the biggest things in finances sharing their insights stories of both success and times failure
and advice on what it takes to make a great investor with our next guest in how to invest Masters on the craft historian host and Co-Founder of the
Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein interviews fellow billionaires including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Ray Dalio, Citadel's Ken Griffin, and Baron
Capitol Founder Ron Baron, among many others.
Rubenstein, who's donated proceeds from the book to separate children's hospitals safety hopes, the books inspire students who want to go into the
world of investing. David Rubenstein joins us now, David, fantastic to have you on the show.
It's sort of an ultimate guide to investing actually, for me, because you're covering all bases, you're giving advice on how to pick others to
manage your money if you're trying to manage your money yourself, or if you're thinking about a career, and we'll dig into the details. But I think
one of the key takeaways for me was spend as much time researching how to build and protect your wealth as you do to earn it in the first place,
which is key?
DAVID RUBENSTEIN, CO-FOUNDER AND CO-CHAIRMAN, THE CARLYLE GROUP: That's true. A lot of people spend a lot of time making money, and then they don't
spend as much time figuring out how to invest it. And the advice for average people that's in the book is that get people who know what they're
doing, if you're going to have somebody managing your money for you. If you want to have a career in this area, well work hard learn, read a great deal
and recognize you're not going to be Warren Buffett overnight.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, I think one of the things that connect all these people is intellectual curiosity and a desire for learning whatever it is. But I
think one of the other things that I loved was just because you're a genius, or really great at one thing or something doesn't necessarily,
you're going to mean that you're going to be great at managing money. And another thing that connects all these individuals, amid their successes is
humility. And I think failure at times and learning from that failure.
RUBENSTEIN: Yes, all great Investors have had big mistakes in their career, they've lost money. And they've learned a lot from that. And they get back
up in that arena and work again and fight hard. But that produces humility. If you have a very arrogant money manager, I think in the end, that person
is probably going to make a big mistake, and not recognize that he or she is making that mistake. Humility is a great virtue and Investors as it is
in human life.
CHATTERLEY: What about luck, and gut feeling? And when does what might be luck, after years, or even decades, in certain cases become about more than
luck. I mean, you're always funny when you write these things, and when you talk, but you sort of list your good trades and your bad ones.
And you see perhaps the best was the decision to launch Carlyle and the process that you went through over decades with that. But on the bad side,
the decision to tell Jeff Bezos that he'd never beat Barnes and Noble selling books. Because of course, that's where he started and thinking that
Facebook wouldn't leave a dorm room, or at least college. Well, it's good at --.
RUBENSTEIN: Luck is something that you make for yourself. I mean, it doesn't just happen out of the sky. You get luck by making contacts by
working hard, and eventually you'll get some luck. If you just sit there and hope that luck will come along, and you do nothing to bring about
something that comes along.
You're not likely to be that lucky. But counting on the market to bail you out and be lucky in the market is a fool's errand. You really have to work
at it. And that's what the great investors do.
CHATTERLEY: What else do they do? Because one of the other things I found quite fascinating about this is most of them never intended to be an
investor. I mean, Sam Zell, it was going to be a fireman. David blood a teacher, a forest ranger Ron Baron was looking at paintings he was
examining paintings and wants to become a doctor.
[09:20:00]
CHATTERLEY: What was in your mind from having these conversations, that real moment for them where they weren't actually you know what this is what
I'm going to do or this is what I'm good at and therefore--
RUBENSTEIN: It's a rare, great investor who says at the age of 10, I'm going to be an investor in my career, Warren Buffett was always interested
in business, but that was unusual. Most of these people started out trying to do something else I started out, I'm not a great investor, but I am in
the investment world. And I started out wanting to be a lawyer and get into government.
Many people start out in different careers, and they wound up in investing. And what did they all have in common is a pretty good academic background,
a pretty good feel for math, and a really hard work quotient. And they also recognize that their humility is an important virtue because they're going
to make mistakes. But their willingness to go against the grain is probably what unites them more than anything else.
They're willing to defy conventional wisdom. If they went along with conventional wisdom, they wouldn't be great, what separates them as they're
willing to say no, when others are saying yes, and vice versa. And that's what really makes a great investor. A willingness to take a chance when
others say you shouldn't be doing so.
CHATTERLEY: You just said you're not a great investor. What do you?
RUBENSTEIN: Not compare with these people?
CHATTERLEY: OK, it was a relative common. I was just going to ask what you put Carlyle's success down to you --.
RUBENSTEIN: Carlyle's success is due to many people. And we have many people who are great Investors in the firm. As I say in the book, I'm not
the investor who's the great one at Carlyle, there many others.
My role at Carlyle has been doing other things, but I happily participated in investment committees and I've been the beneficiary of the great
investors we've had at Carlyle, and one woman in the book is from Carlyle, Sandra Horbach, who's the most experienced bench buyout investor in the
United States. And then a spectacular job for Carlyle and her PE firm, Forstmann Little.
CHATTERLEY: And I thought she would be a lawyer. I looked at that one as well. I like that conversation with her. Do you know what else I found
quite fascinating is what else they do, whether it's philanthropy or who they are as people and actually Ray Dalio, and the importance of
meditation, something that he saw the Beatles doing many decades ago. And how intrinsic that is to his life? How important are those kinds of things,
David, because that caught my attention from race, specifically --?
RUBENSTEIN: All great Investors have some that's a tricks or habits or eccentricities, you might say Transcendental Meditation is an important
part of Ray Dalio's life. He does it every day. And he thinks that calming influence of transcendental meditation has made him a great investor. I'm
not a transcendental meditation type. But you know, maybe I should try it someday, if I could, you know, get the results that he did. Maybe it'd be
good idea.
CHATTERLEY: What surprised you most? Who surprised you most?
RUBENSTEIN: Well, transcendental meditation is something that calms Ray Dalio a great deal. And it has a soothing effect on his ability to think
through where markets are going. I tend to be probably unable to be that calm as for as long a period is as required, but I hope springs eternal,
maybe I should try it someday.
CHATTERLEY: You talk about this in the book, this idea of you trying to pick people to predict the future, or at least see around corners, which I
think is what's required today. Yes, I think this is a crucial point. And particularly given what we're seeing today, answer, you're going to say
something, David, yes.
RUBENSTEIN: That's an important point. All of life is really about predicting the future, should you marry this person, should you go to this
school, and you can't assess with perfect numbers, whether you made the right decision or not, but you are guessing about the future, in investing,
you're really guessing about the future where markets are going to be where this company is going to be.
And we have a perfect metric in the business world to measure your investment acumen and your investment ability to predict the future. And
it's really profit, loss and internal rates of return. So if you think about it, investing is really about life itself. It's predicting the
future, but we have a better way of measuring in the investment world than we do in life generally.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, that's a great point. If we look at what's happened in finance over the last, with the dramatic change that we've seen over the
last three decades, you could then collapse that and say, actually, perhaps we've seen even more change in the past three years.
And we've seen what we often talk about is the democratization of finance, particularly in the United States. And it sort of ties to one of the
conversations that you had with are in the crypto space with Galaxy and Mike Novogratz and this idea that there's been huge rewards but also huge
losses for some of these new players in the space in crypto, for example, but elsewhere, too. What's the advice for these people?
RUBENSTEIN: Well, I tried to put in the book some of the latest investment categories like Cryptocurrency or ESG, or infrastructure, things that are
relatively new in the investment world. Cryptos obviously got enormous amount of attention. And a lot of people have made a lot of money in that
area. Some people have lost a lot of money in that area.
[09:25:00]
RUBENSTEIN: And what I'm trying to say about this category is you really need to know what you're doing and just don't think you're going to invest
in crypto and all of a sudden make a great fortune and something like that you probably have to be very careful and recognize you could lose all your
money if you're not very careful.
But I think what we learned about the investment world is its always changing. And there's always going to be something new. And something new
always attracts more and more people because people love something that's new people don't like the old as much as they like the new. And crypto is
something that's new and attracts young people particularly.
CHATTERLEY: So it's a case of a buyer beware, and probably full circle back to my first question, which is about doing the research, putting the time
in and understanding what you're investing in?
RUBENSTEIN: Yes, you really have to read about what you're doing. You can't just assume that you're going to be great at picking stocks or
Cryptocurrencies read about what you're doing, talk to other people. But most people, for most people, it's good to get good money managers who know
what they are doing, and give them good.
You give them your money, and let them decide what to do with it. But I also think when you do that, you should make sure you know the fees, and
make sure you get the regular accounting, and make sure that you understand what these people are doing with your money.
CHATTERLEY: If I want to pull it forward to today, and you and I had a conversation when we were in Davos in May, and of all the conversations I
had there, you are by far the most optimistic when a lot of people were in the doldrums and talking about recession risk. I just wondered where you
are today, what your thinking is relative to them.
RUBENSTEIN: Well, in the United States, it's not clear if we will go into a recession, we obviously are not in one yet. And it's clear that there's
some I would say nervous signals that we're getting from the Federal Reserve and others that the Fed is likely to increase interest rates,
again, it could tip us into a recession is not clear yet.
But my point I would make even if we go into recession, we have a recession every seven years or so on average United States, it's not the end of the
earth, it's not a terrible situation from which we can recover. It doesn't think like, it doesn't seem like we'll have a great recession, as we didn't
- and remember, as an investor, the best time to invest is when markets are down.
People make the common mistake of thinking markets are down, that's when I put my money under the mattress. The truth is the best time to invest
historically, is when markets are down when you can get things at a cheaper price. So as an investor, I'm not saying it's a very bad time right now; it
might be a great time for it be an investor right now.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, so keep calm and carry on message as always, which we like, I just want to quickly get your comments. Europe, obviously in a very
different situation, I think, given their reliance on Russian energy in particular. But the U.K. has been, let's call it lively, over the past four
days, as a sort of big outside investor. And as I've been as observer as well, I think of credibility of governments and central banks. What do you
make of what we're seeing there?
RUBENSTEIN: Well, what's happening in the U.K. is really the beginning of, you know, a downward spiral in the value of the pound.
And I think that Brexit has had an impact on it, the Ukraine wars had an impact on it, and Britain's position in the world has had an impact on it.
Britain is not the economic powerhouse that it was 50 years ago. And as a result, you're seeing a gradual weakening of the pound. And part because
the dollar is so strong, we're raising interest rates here, which tends to increase the value of the dollar.
And of the U.S. economy is pretty much in a reasonable position compared to Europe; Europe is pretty much in a recession. And England is in a
recession, as the Bank of England has already said. So I think the pounds weakening reflect the fact that England has had some real challenges
economically. And I do think that Brexit has been a bigger impact adversely on the British economy then maybe people would like to admit.
CHATTERLEY: Which sounds like you think there's more weakness to come.
RUBENSTEIN: I think we haven't seen the bottom yet probably where we're going to go in the pound. But I do think that in the end, Britain is a very
strong economy. It's still one of the biggest economies in the world. It just has a hard time competing with all of the EU and the United States for
economic rivalry in the world. It's just not able to do that any longer.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, in a battle of the uglies. It's sort of right down there with the ugliest. OK, I want to wrap up the conversation and repeat that
the book proceeds go to three hospitals, I believe. And I also read in one of the interviews you gave you said, your ultimate ambition for this book
is that your children read it. So I wanted to ask if, if your children have read this book, and what they thought?
RUBENSTEIN: Well, I've signed copies for it and sent it to them. But whether they read or not, I don't know. It's very rare that you want to
read their parents books. So my children are all in the investment world. So maybe they will read this book at some point, will say.
CHATTERLEY: Watch this space. Well, I read it. I really enjoyed it. Sir thank you and thank you for your time.
RUBENSTEIN: Thank you very much for your time and thank you for having me.
CHATTERLEY: Always a pleasure sir, thank you, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group there David Rubenstein and his new book How to Invest
Masters on the craft is out now. There is the front cover. Well, "First Move" after this.
[09:30:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". And I was so excited talking about investing with David Rubenstein there those we completely missed the
opening bell. See my fault that those stocks in the United States are now trading as you can see.
And we are higher attempting to snap a five day losing streak after a volatile session Monday pushed the DOW into bear market territory. As you
can see we are eight tenths of a percent higher, but we have slipped and we are slipping there and for the DOW relative to where we were looking a
couple of hours ago, so we'll watch this space.
In the meantime a share of cruise lines cruising higher, as Canada is set to lift all of its COVID restrictions for international travelers. And the
Tech Giant's also making gains its treasury yields retreat from Monday's Highs.
There's the picture there you can see Amazon and Apple, both higher by almost 2 percent. OK, elsewhere in the world to Iran now at least 41 people
have died in protests over the suspicious death of a woman in the custody of the notorious morality police that according to Iranian state media, CNN
cannot confirm that number.
22 year old Mahsa Amini's death has sparked protests in over 45 Iranian cities. In a show of unity to the Turkish singer Melek Mosso cut her hair
during a concert in Istanbul. It's a symbol for the oppression women face on many of their personal freedoms in Iran.
Jomana Karadsheh is in Istanbul for us. Jomana, much going on and not only in Iran, but I do want to focus there. Do we have any sense of how many
people have lost their lives has been injured - this effective blackout over information.
And we don't really have a sense of how much longer this will go on or what kind of crackdown we're seeing from the authorities. What can you tell us?
[09:35:00]
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And not internet blackout, Julia is making it very difficult for us to try and get information out of the
country, try and reach sources, journalists on the ground. And it's also, you know, with the, with the government blocking social media platforms,
it's also making it nearly impossible for a lot of protesters, activists and journalists to upload images of what is going on to tell the world what
is happening.
And we've seen a pattern over the past few days is these protests begin in the evening. And so late at night and possibly the next day, we get this,
these delayed video and images that start coming out afterwards, they trickle out of the country. And so what we saw last night taking place in
Iran is that these protests were still ongoing.
You're still seeing people defiant out on the streets of different cities, including the capital of Tehran, where we're hearing from some eyewitnesses
that some neighborhoods of Tehran that haven't seen protests.
So far, people were out on the streets there last night. But again, it's so difficult to assess how widespread and how big these protests are. But it
does appear that despite the government crackdown, people are still going out.
And a reminder without crackdown looks like they are dragging people off the streets out of their homes. According to the government's own figures,
more than thousand people have so far been detained. 20 journalists have been detained according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.
And then the death toll it is so difficult for us to try and verify this independently. And we have not been able to do so far because of all these
restrictions that are in place. But estimates are anywhere Julia, between 40 to 80 people killed so far.
And these are numbers coming from different organizations, including Amnesty International and state media, human rights groups and also
opposition groups. And we heard Amnesty saying that what they have seen in recent days is the authorities there are opening fire live rounds
deliberately and directly at protesters. So I mean the real fear right now, Julia is we don't know how many people have really been killed.
And that we've seen this all before. As you look back at 2019 and what happened, then yes, these protests are different. Everybody would tell you
the scale, the scope, the fact that women are leading a lot of these protests. It is different.
But there is a government playbook. And we are watching this play out in front of us right now with Internet being blocked, the use of force, a lot
of concern about what we are going to find out and what is going to happen and especially the bolder these protesters are, the more persistent these
protests are.
There's a lot of concern that the government is really going to unleash brutal force to try and crush this yet again.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, the uprising feels different. But to your point, the potential crackdown could rise to it too. Jomana Karadsheh, thank you so
much for that report there. We'll continue to watch and report.
OK, up next, Britain's pandemic hip hubs now warn of an even greater existential threat. We speak to the CEO of the British Beer & Pub
Association. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:40:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". The iconic British pub is in crisis. The pandemic scarred industry warns surging energy costs means many
won't make it through the winter.
The government has unveiled a raft of measures to support the economy, including tax cuts and an energy price cap. The plans drove the pound to a
record low against the U.S. dollar this week. But some in the hospitality sector are calling these plans a lifeline.
Joining us now is Emma McClarkin; she's Chief Executive of the British Beer & Pub Association, Emma, fantastic to have you with us. We can talk about
the impact of the energy price caps and the impact of the money provided and the support provided in the latest budget from the government.
But I want you to set the scene first, what is the situation for the average British pub in the United Kingdom at this moment?
EMMA MCCLARKIN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, BRITISH BEER & PUB ASSOCIATION: Would it have been an extraordinary two and a half years throughout the pandemic.
But especially for the beer in the pub sector where we were shut down and heavily restricted for a very long period of time that has left us
unfortunately, on average of British pub carrying around 25 pound debt.
They views all access to extra finance that they possibly had and use all of their life savings. And we came out of the pandemic hoping that we would
be able to go into a growth period.
But with the situation in Ukraine, affecting our supply chains and cost inflation and the cost of living crisis, particularly affecting the amount
of time that consumers come out for and how much they spend. It is an extremely difficult environment. And then of course, you have the energy
hikes on top of that. And it could be some pop hubs in a very, very difficult situation where they're worried about their actual survival.
CHATTERLEY: Can you give me a sense of what percentages actually are at that point where they're contemplating shutting down because they're not
financially viable?
And what difference the, as you said, a $500 million, or pound boost to the industry will be and the impact of the price, the energy price caps. How
many do you believe it will save, because you've also said it's not enough, it's just a step in the right direction?
MCCLARKIN: Well, some of our pubs are already having to make very tough decisions based off for the energy, perhaps also have a labor shortage, or
about reducing their hours closing them on certain days of the week, or even restricting the items on their menu to make them less energy
intensive.
So they're already taking every opportunity they possibly can to find ways to survive. But we're going to need to see more from the government, they
have made announcements on energy last week, and that will be enormously helpful for many, but they'll still see a doubling in those energy costs.
And at this moment in time, we've only got one in three pups that are profitable. And so that's the reality of the situation. And of course,
we're heading into a winter period now, which is already quite difficult for us to navigate.
And so we're deeply worried about not only how we can survive this winter, but continue to be at the heart of the communities we serve long into the
future.
CHATTERLEY: You know, it's fascinating, isn't it? Because there will be people listening to this that say, hang on a second. If one in three of
these public houses are not profitable is their natural attrition for none a viable business that is taking place here? Does the United Kingdom have
too many pubs, Emma, your response to that?
MCCLARKIN: Absolutely not. I think we're all very sad to see that the pub has been in decline in the years leading up to the pandemic and we lose so
much more than just a business. And that economic boost is that social hub; it's where we come together as a community.
It's where we meet the love of our life is where we go to - broken heart. And sometimes it's the only conversation that one person may have in a day
is with the people that they go and meet at the pub.
And so it is something that we do need to save the government have given us recognition of how important we are not only economically because we
operate in every town or village in the United Kingdom and provide jobs there.
But also from that social aspects were we're part of the fabric of our society and we will be much poorer without them. So that's why they deserve
this extra recognition from the government and this extra support to see them through.
CHATTERLEY: I mean some of the other statistics that leapt out at me 40 percent of employees in the sector are 16 to 24 year olds; it's a source of
employment for young people in particular, which is really worrying.
[09:45:00]
CHATTERLEY: There's a couple of stats actually one that you've just given, which is the average debt level, at 25,000 pounds for these pups. And the
time when the Bank of England's hiking interest rates, we've seen the turbulence has been created this week, you're saying they need to do more.
But I think what the message from the global investor in the marketplace is saying is that the Central Bank lacks credibility and the government lacks
credibility with the sheer scale of spending.
It's a, it's a, it's a catch 22. I also read Emma that the price of a pint of beer could reach 10 pounds, nine pounds, 10 pounds. Emma, people could
be able to afford that. That's the other problem is whether people can actually afford to come into the pub and drink and, and share stories and
talk to people.
MCCLARKIN: And we want to keep the pub affordable and luxury for all. And that's exactly what we have been with a great leveler, where everybody can
come in and drink together, eat together, meet together.
And be able to know that they can afford to do that and it's a real test actually, of how we can survive through this inflationary period of time.
But our members are seen throughout the - in the pop chain, we're seeing between 15 to 20 percent inflationary increases and that will go up to as
much as 25 percent for some of our brewers.
And they have to find also a way to cover these energy costs that even with the discount that the government has applied, may even still see a doubling
of those costs. And we'll have to find again, somewhere to put those costs; they don't want to put their prices up.
But in order to survive, many of them will. But that's why we're asking the government to give a special injection of interim support to look at
business rates and reforming those and relief, giving us relief on those for at least the remainder of this financial year.
And then looking at also at VAT, that's something that will really help not only our businesses, but consumers with encouraging them to continue
spending and feel that they can get real value for money.
And that is something I hope that the government will look at almost sector specific basis in order to help hospitality because we really can fire on
the economy. When we are doing well, the country is doing well.
And we need to continue to be able to offer those jobs for young people for flexible working for women up and down the country to come back to the
industry. Come and work with us because we are an industry that the government is backing and that the British people back to.
CHATTERLEY: I know the challenge is how do they afford it and maintain confidence in the UK economy and with all the spending that they're trying
to do? It's tough, Emma, great to chat to you, thank you for your insights, Emma McClarkin in there, Chief Executive of the British Beer & Pub
Association there. OK, coming up next, Earth strikes back, NASA successfully slamming a spacecraft into an asteroid and - next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:00]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". Into a stunning moment in history for NASA because it made humanity's first planetary defense test. Yes, the
goal was to deliberately fire a spacecraft into an asteroid in an effort to change its orbit. That's Kristin Fisher reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KRISTIN FISHER, CNN SPACE & DEFENSE CORRESPONDENT (voice over): 10 months, around 6.8 million miles later and with a speed of nearly 14,000 miles per
hour, the double asteroid redirection test spacecraft known as DART made history on Monday night.
The NASA crew and scientists around the world celebrated the culmination of a grueling journey live.
ELENA ADAMS, DART MISSION SYSTEMS ENGINNER: Fantastic. Oh, fantastic.
FISHER (voice over): DART's mission, the first of its kind was to test technological capabilities to protect humanity from hazardous asteroids, or
other deadly objects in space.
ADAMS: You see it so beautifully concluded today was just an incredible feeling and also very tiring.
FISHER (voice over): The DART spacecraft was about the size of a refrigerator, its target asteroid Dimorphous is about the height of the
Washington Monument. Over the last seven years thousands of people have been working on this planetary defense test mission.
NICK MOSKOVITZ, PLANETARY ASTRONOMER, LOWELL OBSERVATORY: So this is an important test for planetary defense mitigation strategies. In case we ever
have to do this for written.
FISHER (voice over): That meant building an unmanned spacecraft and deliberately crashing it into a moving planetary object in their very first
attempt right on target.
MARK JENSENIUS, DART SMART NAV. GUIDANCE ENGINEER: Once we got to look at Dimorphous, I think that's when the team was confident that we were going
to hit.
FISHER (voice over): A remarkable achievement that could possibly prevent future threats from hitting our planet.
NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON, ASTROPHYSICIST & SCIENCE COMMUNICATOR: These are baby steps right now, just to see if it works, alright, to see if we have the
power to do this. And then when the big one comes, you want to make sure that there's enough of these practice runs that in fact, we would end up
succeeding.
FISHER (voice over): In the coming weeks, NASA will analyze images and video that a briefcase sized CubeSat captured during the impact. But NASA
says it will take months before it knows if the DART mission was successful.
ADAMS: What we're going to be seeing probably next couple of months, we're actually going to get a confirmation of exact period change that we made.
FISHER (voice over): Asteroids, especially big ones, are not just a Hollywood imagination as in the 1998 Movie, Armageddon. Asteroids are very
real threats, and having the means to deflect them is a vital interest to everyone on planet Earth.
MICHIO KAKU, PHYSICS PROFESSOR, CITY COLLEGE OF NEW YORK: If we can confirm that the thing was deflected by less than one degree, we know that this
would in principle work on a large scale.
FISHER (voice over): The last time a deadly asteroid hit Earth was around 65 million years ago.
TYSON: You can bet that if the dinosaurs had NASA, they would have to fly to that asteroid.
FISHER (voice over): Monday's test hopes to prevent that from ever happening again.
FISHER (on camera): Should all earthlings sleep a little easier tonight?
ADAMS: I definitely think that, as far as we can tell, our first planetary defense test was a success. And I think we can clap to that, everyone. So
yes, I think that everyone should sleep better. And definitely I will. People working here, we definitely are going to sleep better.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: And Kristin joins us now Kristin, if only the dinosaurs would have had NASA that was a great lie. But I watched your report on this live
and I was bouncing up and down on my chair as well.
Thousand people working on this for more than seven years. And now we have to wait two months to work out exactly how well it worked.
FISHER: Two months for the final full results.
CHATTERLEY: OK.
FISHER: Julia, I think we're going to know a lot sooner if it was able to actually push it off its intended or current orbit by just a little bit
several weeks is what most of those scientists and members of the DART team are saying. Two months is kind of the worst case scenario.
But yes, Julia, I mean, it was I've covered a lot of space missions, this one might be one of my favorite. Because being there at mission control,
you really got the sense that this DART team is so proud of the fact that they are doing this not only for all of humanity in the future, but it was
also kind of a tribute to all of the Earthlings of the past and especially the dinosaurs.
It really felt like this was kind of a tribute to the dinosaurs. And then the other thing I would say is just how incredible those images were of the
actual asteroid. I mean, getting to see those rocks up close like that.
[09:55:00]
FISHER: Nobody had ever seen the surface of this asteroid before until last night. So that was one of the other kind of big moments where the crowd
really cheered and got all excited last night. I had a blast, a little tired, but I had a blast.
CHATTERLEY: I saw one of the scientists that responded to the asteroid is, isn't it cute? She's a good scientist. She's in the right job.
FISHER: It does, it kind of like a dinosaur egg right? I mean, with all the scales on it, or maybe a dragon egg. That's what folks there were
speculating about.
CHATTERLEY: --in the right job too?
FISHER: Oh do dinosaurs, right.
CHATTERLEY: Thank you for that.
FISHER: You bet.
CHATTERLEY: Good job. Thank you. OK. - has also forced NASA to start moving the Artemis 1 moon rocket back to its hangar at Kennedy Space Station just
to be safe. The very slow four and a half mile track began last night. The move will delay the third launch attempt for the unmanned rocket for at
least a few weeks, possibly until November. But Kristin will be back reporting on that very soon, we promise.
And that's it for the show. If you've missed any of our interviews today, there'll be on my Twitter and Instagram pages you can search for
@jchatterleycnn. In the meantime, "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson is up next. And I'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
