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First Move with Julia Chatterley

Top U.S. Diplomat Announces Another $1B in Aid; Kerry: Summit was Unified on Responding to Climate Crisis; Kerry: We Hope Fossil Fuel Industry will Step Up; Apple Falls on Reports of Chinese iPhone Restrictions; Caring for Ukraine's Abandoned Pets; Race to Save American Trapped in Turkish Cave. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired September 07, 2023 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN HOST, FIRST MOVE: A welcome to "First Move", great to have you with us. And onboard for another jam packed show this Thursday,

just ahead this hour climate crusader the U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry joins us to discuss the cost of extreme weather what was accomplished at

this week's African Climate Summit in Kenya and how to stimulate more green energy investment.

Especially of course in the aftermath of America's groundbreaking $1 trillion plus climate deal the badly named let's call it that Inflation

Reduction Act. Also, the latest on the loss and damage fund agreed at COP 27 last year.

When it's the money coming, plenty to discuss and just to illustrate the climate change challenges a new hurricane rapidly gaining strength in the

Atlantic forecasters fear hurricane Lee could intensify into an unprecedented cat five storm fueled by warming ocean waters its threat to

land still uncertain.

And the climate on global markets, while that's still cautious the NASDAQ looks set to fall for a fourth straight session. Amid fresh concerns about

the Fed's interest rate path new numbers showing strong growth for the U.S. services sector.

Prices there still not easing significantly and investors for their part now see a 50/50 so 50 percent chance of another Fed rate hike by November.

As you can see over in Europe too, a touch softer but perhaps some rate relief coming in for the United Kingdom after the Bank of England Chief

suggested interest rate hikes could be nearing an end.

As you can see there the pound under a little bit of pressure there versus the U.S. dollar on that news all this plus a new batch of weak Chinese data

imports and exports both falling sharply again in the month of August.

The numbers are as not as bad as investors and markets feared but Chinese stocks did finish the day more than 1 percent lower as you can see there,

plenty to get to as always, we do begin the show once again in Ukraine.

America's top diplomat is on his second day of his latest Ukraine visit earlier at the state border guard facility on the outskirts of Kyiv

Secretary of State to Antony Blinken was shown U.S. donated surveillance drones before he visited a demining center.

Blinken says Washington agrees with Kyiv, that Ukraine's forces have made real progress in recent weeks. Melissa Bell is live in Kyiv for us on this.

Melissa and the silver lining to the ongoing strikes that we see is further financial support and aid coming from the United States and announced at

this trip, on this trip.

MELISSA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right Julia, in fact, including some of those very controversial depleted uranium munitions. That is a part

of the package that Secretary Blinken announced yesterday, on his first visit -- first day of visit here to Kyiv third visit to Kyiv since the war

began Julia a $1 billion package that will essentially include us for the military aid part of it.

There are other elements to it. But the military aid will include stockpiles from the Pentagon that are really specifically aimed at helping

Ukraine breach those formidable Russian defenses that they've been coming up against, in their southern and eastern counter offensive and that we've

been talking about here so many over the course of the last few days.

So a package that is very specifically targeted and you can see him this morning on day two of his visit, seeing some of the fruits of what's been

given by the United States already so much of that equipment that has proven invaluable so far.

This visit also, of course, times at once with a counter offensive and what more needs to be achieved and how Western allies can help Ukraine continue

to try and make that progress they claim that they are making.

But it's also very much about what the Defense Secretary is going to take back to his American audience Julia at a time when the polls have shown

that the American public is not necessarily as much in favor as it was of sustained financial help to this wars, it drags on we're now in the 19th

month.

It is also of course about going to the United Nations next week, and singing from the same hymn sheet that was very much what Secretary Blinken

has said this trip was about looking to the message that they're going to take the rest of the world to hold that alliance together this far into the

campaign.

But yes, a positive assessment we'd heard from Secretary Blinken as he arrived and that's been reinforced but what he's been hearing from

President Zelenskyy who he himself had come back from a visit to the troops in the east on Tuesday.

[09:05:00]

And the other Ukrainian officials that he's been meeting that have given him or allowed him rather to give a much more upbeat assessment, I think,

than what we've been hearing from the United States these last few weeks, Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, a shift certainly. Melissa bell in Kyiv there thank you! Now later in the show, we'll also be returning to Ukraine to look at how

volunteers are battling to care for pets that have been abandoned amid the fighting that's in around half an hour from now.

In the meantime, shares of SMIC punching as U.S. lawmakers accused the top chip maker in China violating sanctions. It comes after Huawei unveiled

this new Smartphone powered by an advanced chip that's believed to have been made by the Chipmaker Huawei has been on the U.S. blacklist since 2019

over national security concerns.

Anna Stewart joins us now. Anna stunned by some of the details on this. And actually, it's not just the chip in this Huawei phone, I mean, the power

amps, the switches, the filters, I think everybody's scrambling to understand just how these were pulled together and circumvented sanctions,

potentially too?

ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What a launch of a Smartphone right? I mean, it really has had a lot of coverage and caused quite a lot of panic,

particularly in the United States. Looking at that chip, though, that's in that phone, the one made by SMIC are believed to be it's so high tech, no

one believed that a Chinese chip maker could make that.

And it raises this big question, whether sanctions from the U.S. and other Western nations against high tech technology, whether it's the chips or the

chip making machines is it really working. And overall, the concern is really not about who can make the best Smartphone.

Really, it's about all the other things that the chip like this is used for it are the linchpin for so many technologies. And the big one, the big

concern, of course, is weaponry and artificial intelligence.

And there will be a huge concern in the U.S. and many Western nations I would have thought that China could potentially develop this sort of

technology end to end within China. How will the international community be able to police restrict or be aware of what's being developed if that is

the case?

So lots of U.S. lawmakers speaking out about this. One, the Chair of the House of Representatives Committee on China yesterday, saying they should

ban all exports to Huawei at this stage high tech or not, and to SMIC. So certainly causing something of a panic, I would say in the United States,

Julia.

CHATTERLEY: And what about the subsequent response in China and from Chinese consumers that have now seen this phone because some of the social

media activity has been interesting.

STEWART: Yes, it was interesting that in the U.S. they said this is an example of sanctions busting. And then in China, actually, in state media,

the line the framing of it was pretty much the same.

We had lines from Chinese state media saying, yes, they have successfully broken U.S. sanctions. This is an example of achieving technological

independence. And on social media, you're right, there are some interesting memes floating around.

I'll show you one of them, and essentially crown the U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo as being the unofficial brand ambassador for this

new Huawei phone, the Mate 60 Series because without the severe restrictions, without the sanctions the argument is China wouldn't have

bothered to develop this technology on their own to be able to create this phone. One thing is for sure, this is a Smartphone launch like no other. I

mean, you don't see this sort of a reaction do you at Mobile World Congress -- ?

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, the whole world now talking about it too just to help the PR function along. There's going to be some intense discussions

and certainly, we shall see what happens. Anna Stewart, thank you for that. All right, we're going to be back after this stay with "First Move".

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[09:10:00]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move". And here in the United States a brand new CNN Poll finds that President Biden's approval rating has dropped

to 39 percent from 41 percent in July. Now as far as the economy is concerned, nearly 60 percent of people who responded think the President's

actions are making things worse.

And the gap between President Biden and potential Republican candidates is very narrow. If it came to a race between Biden and Former Vice President

Mike Pence, the poll says Pence leans 46 to 44 percent that's within the margin of error, of course. Here is what Pence had to say about the poll

just moments ago on CNN.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE PENCE, FORMER U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: Joe Biden has weakened this country at home and abroad, the American people are done with the failed policies

of President Joe Biden. And now I think Republican primary voters and frankly, many independents and many Democrats around the country are

looking for that leader and looking for that agenda that will really restore our economy and ensure our national security and generations to

come.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHATTERLEY: Now climate change not featuring in that poll is a key issue, but it remains a vital part of the concerns of the Biden Administration.

Special Envoy John Kerry just attended the first Africa Climate Summit where leaders in the continent spoke with one voice.

For the most part, their demands include a global carbon tax and financial reforms ahead of the next UN Climate Conference in Dubai COP 8. And I'm

pleased to say joining us now is Special Envoy John Kerry, Secretary Kerry always fantastic, sir, to have you on the show. Some of those issues,

pretty thorny, what concrete can be achieved and where does this lead is now heading to COP28?

JOHN KERRY, U.S. SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ENVOY FOR CLIMATE: Well, I'm very excited about what's happening economically, globally with respect to the

climate crisis right now. We just had a major meeting in Africa President Ruto of Kenya convened nations from all over Africa and elsewhere.

And there was unanimity about the urgency of responding to the climate crisis. But also there was unanimity about the positive aspects of that for

our economies. There are just unbelievable number of jobs and the new technologies that are going to help us have a clean economy, a clean, well

clean world in effect, by using renewable alternative, clean energy.

And that includes nuclear energy, which I've just been working on here in Romania, where President Iohannis of Romania has gathered 15 nations of

Eastern Europe and Central Europe, all of whom are focused on economic development on the future of responding to the crisis by growing jobs in

new technologies that will be clean and not add to the problem.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's a global story. And it's tough to keep up with you, sir. I know you're traveling around the world and constantly, just to take

it back to the point that you were making about Africa. And I think it's vitally important because they contribute so little in terms of emissions

and the carbon footprint versus suffering a great deal of the damage that we're clearly already seeing in the world.

They're 3 percent, currently of global renewable investment. Where do you see that percentage rising to let's say, even just the next five to 10

years because there is opportunity here to your point, the question is, how do we harness it?

KERRY: Well, we are harnessing it. That's precisely what President Biden has set out to do and is doing in the Inflation Reduction Act, which is

kicked our economy much higher gear created a whole number of jobs in various sectors in the United States.

[09:15:00]

The United States is leading with respect to the new technologies here in Europe and elsewhere. Country after country is begging to work -- it's not

begging, it's the wrong word, but asking and looking forward to working with us, in order to be able to develop their economy.

So right here, yesterday, I visited the University here in Bucharest, that University has a system set up computer system that is actually modeling

what they could do with respect to the new energy in small modular nuclear reactors.

They are going to become a hub or a center, if you will, of economic activity for the development of these small modular reactors for other

countries. Poland was here. Poland is turning to Westinghouse, and looking for a larger nuclear reactor capacity, which we are looking forward to

working with them on in order to be able to transition off of coal.

So there's just an enormous amount happening, I must say that I have been more impressed by the possibilities for meeting this transition by virtue

of what I've seen so many nations embracing at this point in time.

And the United States should be very proud that we are leading in this endeavor, in technologies, as well as in helping other countries to be able

to access those technologies. So the central part of Europe is the fastest central part and the Baltic States as well as Greece, and the Slovenia,

Slovakia, et cetera.

Those are the fastest growing countries in Europe today. They're leading growth in Europe. And they're leading it because they're moving into the

new technologies of responding to the climate crisis. So I think we're seeing a new economy develop on a global basis, some places faster than

others, some places more effective than others.

But this transition is underway. And there are enormous numbers of new jobs in solar, or wind, or batteries, or electric vehicles, direct carbon

capture hydrogen, that just a huge amount happening that should excite the world.

CHATTERLEY: And it's brilliant to hear actually, that things are moving so fast, as much as we know, we need them to move quicker, too. But even in

this transition period, there are winners and losers. And to your point, America is going gangbusters with voting investment, and it is causing a

sort of ripple effect.

I think around the world, I don't think begging was actually the wrong word to use in the context that you did. But some of the losers are pushing

back. And I think we see that here in America in the recent auto worker union negotiations, where they're saying, look, you're pushing money and

incentives towards things like electric vehicles. What about legacy businesses? How do you find the balance?

And what's the message to those in the fossil fuel industry and those that are in sort of legacy auto businesses and saying, look, we're sort of

pushing money away from you, or interest away from you. And pushing other things is a tough sell particularly heading into an election year.

KERRY: I think what we're seeing actually Julia, is a transition that is very thoughtful about people. And President Biden has made it clear that

he's trying to implement policies that don't leave anybody behind transitional efforts for training, entry into new jobs.

The United States of America right now has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world. And part of our biggest problem is we need more people

to be doing jobs, and which will help, frankly, expand to a larger degree.

But we're seeing an enormous amount of new opportunity for workers around the United States. The third fastest growing job a few years ago was a

solar panel installer, the first, the number one fastest growing job in the United States was wind turbine -- .

And I think we will see wages that are competitive. Actually, I think I saw on some of the economic reports that net wages were going up now and above

inflation rate. So I think there are things happening that are very beneficial. But the important thing is if you don't do this Julia --

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

KERRY: If you decide to slow down or don't pay attention to it, we will be paying far more money just to clean up the damages, and to respond to the

problems that come with the climate crisis. And that's been true.

You can see that and what has happened in the United States. We've had almost every 18 days, at least one $1 billion climate event. And we're

seeing this on television this morning. This has been the hottest year ever recorded. And last year was the hottest year before this one. Next year

will be hotter still.

[09:20:00]

So we have to make fundamental choices about protecting life on the planet, and about providing new economic opportunities so people can do well. Life

with this transition will be cleaner, healthier, it'll be safer, and we will be more prosperous in the doing of this economic transition that we're

at.

CHATTERLEY: Yes. And I like your point about not leaving anybody behind. It sort of circles me back to the discussions, again, from COP 27. But also, I

think, in Nairobi, and that was the loss and damage fund that was agreed back then. Secretary Kerry, I know it's a challenge.

It's a challenge of providing money to a fund but without taking on endless future civil legal liabilities, if not more, are we managing to negotiate

something that can allow for the cash to be provided without the legal liability? And when will the money start coming? How long is it going to

take?

KERRY: Well, in the next three months, we will continue the negotiations that have been taking place in order to arrive at a consensus about how

this can be done. The nations that is lucky enough to have strong economies around the world have been trying to help other nations.

The United States is I'm proud to say the largest humanitarian donor in the world. And we are trying to work a way to make this transition as fair as

possible to everybody. But in the terms of the losses and damages, and the fun that was agreed upon by everybody, we have to make certain that is

getting input from everyone, that it is not unfair in itself.

We've made it very clear that we're not opening up some channel of liability and compensation, but we are trying to provide help to people who

need that help for reasons that are no cause of their own, that of the 20 most threatened nations in the world due to the climate crisis 17 of them

are in Africa.

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

KERRY: And as you said earlier, but Africa is only 3 percent of all the emissions of the world. There are 20 countries, us among them in the United

States, Europe as an entity, China, Russia, India, others who represent nearly 80 percent, just shy of 80 percent of all the emissions of the

planet.

And so we need to bring all those countries to the table. And there are high expectations that for Dubai, we're going to see broader participation

in trying to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. We certainly hope that the fossil fuel industry itself will step up. They've

got to be part of this solution also.

CHATTERLEY: Can I ask about China? To sort of you let me in that direction? Sorry, sir. Do you want some water? Are you good? Yes.

KERRY: -- not live so I can grab a little water. Yes.

CHATTERLEY: We actually are live, sir. But I also didn't want you to cough. So we get you some water. Welcome to live TV, these things happen.

KERRY: Cheers.

CHATTERLEY: -- cheers.

KERRY: Thanks Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Well, while you're drinking, China, is trying to onboard.

KERRY: At this point, no.

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

KERRY: And we're hopeful that over the course of the next few months, that China will come to the table and, and certainly be helpful in finding the

solution here. China is about 30 percent of all the emissions of the world. It's the largest single emitter. It's the second largest economy in the

world. And we really do need China to help in this endeavor.

And hopefully, something can be arranged. But as of this moment, there is no agreement about how that's going to happen.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's a tough one, I know. Final question and then I promise to let you go. Can I ask your views on direct action, just stop oil

comes to mind? These are the guys that at the National Gallery in the U.K., they threw soup on Van Gogh's sunflowers. They're clearly a passionate

they're traffic stopping around the world.

They're in many ways fighting the cause you are to protect the planet. They're just going about it in a sort of disruptive way, advice for them

thoughts on them.

KERRY: Well, I understand people who feel very, very deeply that they need to demonstrate or that they're fed up with promises that aren't fulfilled.

And there's certainly a growing militancy in the world. And that militancy will grow, if people in positions of responsibility do not take action.

[09:25:00]

But I would also say that you're not going to help when any converts by destroying a great work of art, or making it very difficult for people to

get to work, and so forth. I think how you select what you do and what you do is always quite critical. And I say that as somebody who demonstrated

who was involved in protests.

I respect that right. I admire people who are willing to put themselves on the line, even in civil disobedience. But you understand that when you are

civilly disobedient, there are consequences. That's part of making the point you want to make, I think, right now we need people to be moving the

political process as constructively as possible.

And what we need is sort of massive pushback against nonsense. And, you know, for instance, subsidizing the problem by making sure where we

subsidize some of the industries that are creating the problem in the first place. We should not now be approving or financing any new unabated coal

fired power plant, for instance.

And I think it's critical for us to be making the really hard choices, and the critical choices that will define the future. Clearly, you can't stop

overnight. You can't just shut down all the economies of the world. Nobody, I mean, that just doesn't make sense.

But what you do need is to get everybody at the table and come to agreement as to what the levels of responsibility are, for the various sectors of our

economy, work constructively together, as we are trying to do in order to provide new solutions to these problems and we're seeing that happen.

New technologies coming online, people are pushing and accelerating the effort to deliver green hydrogen, or deliver some way of capturing all the

emissions and doing something useful with them, or stopping them in the first place. We see a huge growth in electric vehicles, and also in the

provision of power from renewable sources, or clean energy sources.

That's having a profound impact on the demand for fossil fuel. And that demand at some point is going to go down. And that's the beginning of sort

of the real signal of an orderly, sensible transformation that is taking place because the economy itself and the leaders of that economy and the

consumers of that economy, in that economy are making choices.

That make it clear to manufacturers and producers, that new products are needed, that they're ready to buy the things that make sense to have a

clean economy, healthier economy, safer economy, more prosperous economy. And that's what we will have if we continue down the road that President

Biden has us on right now for this transition.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, just need other countries around the world that we've already mentioned to be on board and Secretary Kerry, I'm always enthused

when I speak to you because you are at the beating pulse of all the positive work towards protecting our planet. You're the man in the know,

always a pleasure, sir, thank you so much. The U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, great to chat to you, sir.

KERRY: Thank you for -- live for drinking water.

CHATTERLEY: I know, fantastic. Well, let's meet again soon. All right, let's move on a new biography about billionaire Elon Musk reveals fresh

details about his connection to Russia's war in Ukraine, and an excerpt the book's author Walter Isaacson details, how Musk secretly ordered his

engineers to turn off his company's Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean Coast last year to disrupt the Ukrainian sneak

attack on the Russian naval fleet.

Natasha Bertrand is in Washington for us. Natasha, what will happen reports on this and it's a little bit more complicated, which we can get into but

just give us more details on what happened here and the reasoning behind it.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yes, Julia. So this is an excerpt of a biography written by Walter Isaacson about Elon Musk's life

that was obtained by my colleague Sean Lyngaas in it. It really goes into new detail about just how far Elon Musk went to try to prevent the

Ukrainians from staging some kind of attack on Russian Naval Forces.

Russian Naval Forces off the coast of Crimea according to this excerpt, Elon Musk actually ordered his engineers to turn off the Starlink satellite

communication system for the Ukrainians as they approach the Russian naval fleet using drones. Now, there are also new details in this about just why

Elon Musk felt the need to do that.

Namely, he believed that if the Ukrainians moved forward with this attack on Russia's naval fleet off the coast of Crimea, then Russia might actually

respond by using nuclear weapons and he said that he feared "a mini Pearl Harbor". Now it is unclear why he believed that but the excerpt says that

he did speak to Russian officials so perhaps that drove his fear that they would respond with some kind of major escalation.

[09:30:00]

But the biography also according to this excerpt, really underscores Musk's ambivalence about more broadly using Starlink in a war setting he says,

"How am I in this war"? Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars it was so people can watch Netflix and chill, and get online for school and do

good peaceful things, not drone strikes.

So again, kind of underscoring how Musk apparently never intended for Starlink to be used for this purpose. But we should really emphasize here

that the Ukrainians need Starlink on the battlefield in order to maintain their battlefield communications, it is invaluable for them to be able to

communicate and make sure that units on the battlefield are not isolated and can actually carry out operations.

This book, however, says that Elon Musk really did not want it to serve that purpose. And of course, we reported last year that he threatened to

the Pentagon to actually stop funding additional Starlink services to Ukraine. The Pentagon now, according to a spokesperson there has picked up

the bill, Julia.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, I mean, there was a I think there was an estimated cost of $400 million over 12 months and we've had this conversation with other tech

companies like Microsoft, who pays in this situation when you step into help, not easy because you are forced to take sides, but that's the way of

the world. Natasha Bertrand, thank you so much for that report, more "First Move" after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:35:00]

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move", U.S. stocks are up and running this Thursday and it is a softer open with the S&P on track for a third

straight day of losses. There is a mixed picture tech as you can see, seeing the most weakness down around 1.5 percent overall Apple in fact, a

big session lose it down at some 4 percent.

Apple losing at 3.5 percent Wednesday as well amid reports that the Chinese government will ban the use of iPhone for government officials Apple stock

tends to do well before new iPad product launches, but perhaps not this year. The company is set to announce its newly updated iPhone 15, next

Tuesday.

Context also key Apple shares still up some 40 percent year to date. But as we said yesterday, around a fifth of revenues come from China. So it's a

very important region for Apple. Now representatives for many of the world's largest oil consumers as well as the globe's largest oil producers

will be attending the G 20 summit in New Delhi, India this weekend.

G20 members, Saudi Arabia and Russia this week announcing they will keep voluntary production cuts in place through the end of the year. That news

helping push oil prices substantially higher, with Brent crude rising for a seventh straight session on Wednesday.

Look at that rise though since June both Brent and U.S. crude softer today but still trading in a nine month highs, tighter supplies and continued

strong demand could keep gas prices elevated this fall to a key political concern for President Biden as the 2024 vote nears.

And Goldman Sachs predicting oil prices could soon hit $107 a barrel. Meanwhile, India's oil officials are saying their country's imports of

discounted Russian crude are a "win-win" for the world's economy, freeing up supplies for the rest of the world despite the moral implications of

helping Russia fund its Ukraine war.

Russia remains China's top crude supplier too, but a slowing Chinese economy continues to pressure demand, at least to some degree there. And it

depends on the product you're talking about. Amrita Sen joins us now from Singapore. She's the Co-founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects.

And she's just returned from a trip to China where she got a first-hand look at the energy demand situation in that country. Amrita, we're great to

have you so you're going to shed some light. Two things going on, I think on a very basic level demand is greater than we expected. The U.S., Europe

for the most part avoided recession. And then you've got restricted supply from the OPEC members Saudi and Russia too and that's the dominating force.

AMRITA SEN, CO-FOUNDER AND DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT ENERGY ASPECTS: Yes, I think you've summarized it exactly right. Demand has surprised to the

upside. I'd actually even say China, regardless of the macro fears oil demand growth has been extremely strong about 1.8 million barrels per day,

year on year.

And crude imports are coming in at record highs August numbers out today 12.7 million barrels per day. So there is no sign of a slowing, "Chinese

economy on oil demand". And I think it's a very western idea that Chinese oil demand has been weak. If anything, it's really a roaring ahead.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, absolutely told me about what's going on in China, because I was looking at some of the data and for all those concerns about economic

slowdown, the data from the last month we have in July as a five month high in terms of demand.

SEN: Yes, and you know, we've heard from oil refiners over the state oil companies that July was a record high for their sales. I think the biggest

change in some ways is the economy is becoming, more consumer driven. That's what the government's been trying to aim for.

Anyways, we've seen diesel which was far more linked to manufacturing. In the past 40 percent of diesel demand used to be transportation, trucking

essentially. Now it's 70 percent, because of E-commerce and you know, just like us in the West, kind of ordering more stuff on Amazon, the same thing

is going on in China.

So the structure of the economy is changing. And I think there's a lot of there used to be at least a lot of bearishness, particularly analysts from

U.S. banks, putting out notes around how we China has been, when you go there, you realize that's absolutely not the case.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it? Is that sustainable then because this is a crucial part of when we're looking at where oil prices

go, or at least demand goes in the future? They are a fundamental part of that. So what you're saying is based, at least for now on what you're

seeing, it is sustainable.

SEN: I mean, look, do I expect Chinese oil demand to grow again by close to 2 million barrels per day next year? No, because this was a post COVID

recovery. Globally, we think oil demand growth will be more like 1.2 million barrels per day year on year versus 2 million barrels per day this

year.

There will be a slowdown, even U.S. economy, probably going into a mild recession. Europe already is in a mild recession, but that's still growth,

right? It's not that we are slowing down or definitely not declining, and supplies OPEC+ are very, very keen to make sure inventories don't build

particularly Saudi Arabia.

So we do have a very clear mandate from them in making sure that the market is going to remain balanced and so if demand surprises to the upside, we

will continue to see all prices go up.

[09:40:00]

CHATTERLEY: You to your credit have been saying we could see oil $100 a barrel for what the best part of the last six months I think if not more.

SEN: Yes.

CHATTERLEY: What do you expect for the back end of this year and beyond, particularly if we do see an ongoing extension of those supply restrictions

from the Saudis and Russia, because that's sort of a double edged sword at some point too when they start to encourage other suppliers like the shale

guys in the United States to ramp up production too.

SEN: I mean, look, I think one of the reasons they feel more confident about extending cuts, not just like the latest one, but in general, is the

shale industry has changed. It just doesn't react in the same way. There's a lot more capital discipline, but also we're running of tier-1 acreage

outside of the Permian.

So I think that's this fundamental change for OPEC+. Remember, the days when Saudi and Russia used to disagree. It used to be about shale and its

response, now that's gone. So that gives them a lot more confidence, ultimately, for Saudi Arabia, their revenue maximizes, right?

What you can see now the price has gone up a lot more. Yes, they are curtailing exports, but net, they're still earning, we calculated 30 to $40

million per day more than each one of this year, right, because prices have gone up so much. So that's what they're trying to achieve revenue

maximization.

And I wouldn't rule it out if they extended a little bit further into next year, simply because usual refinery maintenance software patch for oil

demand. They just want to ensure that inventories don't build given the macro uncertainties.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, so get used to the prices we've got right now, if not potentially higher.

SEN: Absolutely!

CHATTERLEY: Is the message, Amrita Sen, great to chat to you, Director of Research at Energy Aspects.

SEN: Thank you.

CHATTERLEY: Thank you. Still to come on "First Move", left behind in the middle of war will visit the shelter taking care of hundreds of abandoned

animals in Ukraine.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move", the war in Ukraine has shattered cities, separated families and destroyed lives while it's also turned many

of man's best friends into orphans. Hundreds of dogs and cats have been left behind by owners who've been forced out of their homes.

And that's where my next guest steps in. Shelter Friend is an animal rescue and rehab center that looks after homeless animals including disabled dogs

and cats. Staff there, say since the war began they've literally been overwhelmed with animals in need of a safe home.

[09:45:00]

And joining us now is Marina Bolokhovets who runs the Shelter Friend in Dnipro, Ukraine. Marina, thank you so much for joining us. I think dog and

cat lovers all over the world that are watching this. Their hearts are with you at this moment. Just talk to me about the work that you and the team

are doing? How many animals do you have?

MARINA BOLOKHOVETS, SHELTER FRIEND: Hi studio, hi, U.S., hi, world. Thank you very much for inviting me. And first of all, I want to say thank you to

all the people who is supporting Ukraine in our difficult times. Thank you, from the bottom of my heart from all the volunteers from all the dogs and

cats and from all the Ukrainian people about animals.

Well, currently, I have more than 700 dogs and the 150 cats and donkeys and goats. Station is hard, really hard. But we live on a different scale now.

And is every sunrise when we are alive, it's already a blessing. So we keep working, we keep saving, it is hard. It is very hard, but we try to manage.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, where is the support coming from, Marina? If people are watching this, how can they provide support, because I think what our

viewers need to understand is you also have children, your children have gone to safety in Poland, but you chose to remain and take care of these

animals and continue your work here. Just describe what that's like and again, how people can help?

BOLOKHOVETS: Well, it's only social networks. It's only Facebook and Instagram, frankly speaking, all the help is coming from Facebook and

Instagram, really. I mean, it's sad to say but the animal welfare in Ukraine was a disaster before war. Now, of course, it's much worse.

But I mean mentally video prepare for this worse when war started. And we did manage before war, we try to manage now, but really help it. Everything

is coming from Facebook and Instagram.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, that's where we saw you too. Shelter Friend on Facebook and Instagram, just in case people want to help what proportions of these

animals are being adopted? I know you have options to get the dogs to people if they want to adopt in Poland, in Germany, potentially too.

I know, Czech Republic is a little bit more difficult, at the moment, given some of the restrictions on potential rabies concerns. But, Marina, if

there are people out there that would like to adopt, how do they go about that?

BOLOKHOVETS: Well, the procedure is long, but possible. U.S.A. doesn't allow Ukrainian animals. I mean, even it was not allowed even before war.

But some European countries they do allow. It's quite complicated, but it's possible the waiting time is almost five months.

But whoever wants to help, to save people are waiting. Yes. Even this Czech Republic, so it just has to be complete procedure with papers. Just the

first year of war, when laboratories were closed, it was very complicated. But now, I mean, labs in Kyiv is, laboratory in Kyiv is working for this

rabies test.

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

BOLOKHOVETS: And also, if somebody really wants to adopt, we do people just waiting time is almost five months to adopt.

CHATTERLEY: Yes, you know, I have a dog and he's so human to me sometimes the way he looks at me. I cannot even imagine the concept of having to

leave him behind. Do these cats and dogs get hugged every day? How do you manage to just provide them with the love that they had within their

families now that you have so many to deal with?

BOLOKHOVETS: Well, I don't, I mean, dogs and cats. They're not getting of course every single day want. I mean, for me, always was quality, more

important than quantity even so, as I said already, animal welfare was a disaster even before war, sadly, but now it's more about quantity.

Because everyday soldiers bring animals, refugees bring animals. We were really lucky to be in them central location is different all over around

us, east from north, south, it just all around us.

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

[09:50:00]

BOLOKHOVETS: Like 70 kilometers from us it's like a war zone line but -- lucky because we are getting attacked here only from air, which is a matter

of luck. But we don't have ground fights here. So whoever is trying to rescue animals from fighting blends, everything is coming to us to Dnipro

or via Dnipro.

So sadly, now it's more about the quantity. But of course, I mean, we try to do our best really try to do our best about the food, about the love,

but it's not as good as I would like to have of course, but right now we are really saving lives, you know, so --

CHATTERLEY: Yes.

BOLOKHOVETS: And I hope --

CHATTERLEY: Marina, I was just going to say you're giving them far more than they would have had and you are a total dog and cat hero in our book.

And you're incredibly brave too, as you said, you're so close to the frontlines and you're still doing your work. We salute you, big hug to you

and to all the animals that you're taking care of.

BOLOKHOVETS: Thank you very much --

CHATTERLEY: And we'll check in with -- you soon, you take care, thank you, more "First Move" after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to "First Move", rescue operations are underway to save an American who fell ill in one of the deepest caves in Turkey. 150

rescuers are involved in what's described as a complex operation. To see the least Mark Dicky suffered gastrointestinal bleeding more than a

kilometer below ground. The Turkish Caving Federation says getting him to the surface could take days. Jomana Karadsheh has the latest.

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We don't really know the full details of what really happened. But what we do know from the Turkish Caving

Federation is that American caver Mark Dickey, who was part of a local and international research team, fell ill last weekend or early this week.

More than 3000 feet or 1000 meters from the entrance of Turkeys third deepest cave, the Hungarian cave rescue service that is involved in his

rescue operation right now say he's lost a lot of blood as a result of gastrointestinal bleeding. He got 6 units of blood and was stabilized

according to the Turkish Federation.

They say his condition is continuing to improve the bleeding has stopped, he's stable, he's able to walk on his own and he is right now at base camp

and that is still more than 3000 feet from the surface and it's a real logistical challenge to get him out of there. There are more than 150

rescuers and personnel from Turkey from its emergency and disaster management agency.

[09:55:00]

AFAD and rescuers from countries including the U.S., Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Croatia and many others that are involved in this complex

rescue effort. Mark Dickey according to his own bio is a very experienced caver. He's been caving in 20 U.S. states and 10 countries since the 90s.

He's a rescuer himself and a rescue instructor and the Chief of the New Jersey initial response team focusing on cave cliff and abandoned mine

rescue. The Turkish Caving Federation says it takes 15 hours for an experienced caver to reach the surface in ideal conditions.

And this cave has really narrow and winding passages making it hard for them to get him out on a stretcher and they're consulting with doctors on

moving him out. They expect that this effort could take days. Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, London.

CHATTERLEY: Fingers crossed for him and all the team. That's it for the show. If you missed any of our interviews today, there'll be on my X and

Instagram pages you can search for @jchatterleycnn. "Connect the World" is up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:00:00]

END