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Inside Politics

California Candidates Work the Crowds Before Tomorrow's Election

Aired October 06, 2003 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: And thank you for joining us for this special 90-minute edition of the show on this day before the California recall election. Arnold Schwarzenegger's spokeswoman is denying that his campaign is losing momentum, but the Republican candidate for governor still is struggling to put sexual misconduct allegations behind him.
Governor Gray Davis certainly isn't helping that cause as he presses for an explanation from Schwarzenegger while fighting to keep his own job. The two are pointing fingers at one another as they make their final campaign swings across the state. Schwarzenegger stumping in San Jose, Huntington Beach and San Bernardino today. CNN's Kelly Wallace is along for the ride.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Arnold Schwarzenegger made a very unconventional entrance into this race, announcing his candidacy on "The Tonight Show." Well, he is wrapping it up with a little bit of Politics 101: doing what he can to get out the vote.

The GOP front-runner is flying around the state, along with his wife, Maria Shriver. His message: that he and his aides believe they have the momentum despite allegations of sexual misconduct against Schwarzenegger and also questions about his past statements concerning Adolph Hitler.

Here in San Jose, the first of three stops, Schwarzenegger didn't mention any of the controversies. Instead, he tried to drum up opposition to embattled Governor Gray Davis.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Gray Davis has terminated jobs, Gray Davis has terminated dreams. Gray Davis has terminated opportunities. And now it's time we terminate Gray Davis.

WALLACE: Aides continued to say their overnight polling showing the recall passing by a pretty good margin, and showing Schwarzenegger leading the major Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante. But these aides also concede ultimately they won't know what the voters think until tomorrow. What they are hoping, though is that the timing of these allegations, what the Schwarzenegger campaign is calling a dirty politics smear campaign, will end up hurting Governor Gray Davis more than the candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, reporting from San Jose, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Well, meantime, Governor Davis says the momentum is turning his way and that he will manage to pull out a win when Californians vote tomorrow. The Democrat taking his message to Sacramento, San Francisco and Los Angeles today.

CNN's Dan lothian is traveling with the Davis campaign. Dan, what are they saying? How is it going?

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Judy, Governor Davis obviously feeling a little bit more upbeat now that those numbers are showing that it really is a jump ball on this recall vote. And of course we won't know that until the end of tomorrow, perhaps even after tomorrow. But the governor, as you mentioned, making campaign stops not only in Sacramento, but San Francisco and Los Angeles.

He began his day this morning here in Sacramento meeting with a young voters forum. Governor Davis trying to make a convincing argument as to why he should remain the governor of California. He leaned on these young people for them to in turn lean on their family members. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GRAY DAVIS (D), CALIFORNIA: If you have a chance to talk to your siblings who are 18 or older, and your parents and your grandmother, anyone, I'd appreciate it if you would ask them to vote no as well. I'm asking you to ask them to vote. Tell them I'm asking them through you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOTHIAN: Governor Davis, of course, trying to find votes wherever he can, and he's focusing on Democrats. And 27 percent of Democrats have in recent polls said that they did support the recall. He's hopeful that he can convince them to reverse that decision -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Dan, how much is Governor Davis -- how much are the people around him bringing up these last-minute allegations against Schwarzenegger?

LOTHIAN: Well, so far this morning we have not heard anything about that. His first meeting, of course, before young people, so we did not expect him to bring out those allegations. But throughout the weekend, the governor did, every chance that he got, bring up this issue, saying that it was disturbing, this information.

He was really trying to seize on this controversy, calling even for an investigation. And he was surrounded by key Democrats who also kept pushing that theme, that somebody needs to look into these allegations. So certainly, this has been the central focus of this campaign in the last few days. Some of the other things, such as the economy and other key issues, have fallen by the wayside. For the most part, it's been about Arnold Schwarzenegger and these 15 allegation of sexual misconduct.

WOODRUFF: All right. Dan Lothian, who is following Governor Davis around this state this day. Dan, thanks very much.

Well, Davis and Schwarzenegger are giving Californians plenty to chew on as they sort through the allegations against the actor and prepare to cast their ballots tomorrow.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF (voice-over): At Pink's (ph) politics is sidelined by more pressing priorities.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm thinking about hot dogs, actually.

WOODRUFF: And like dozens of Angelinos who line up for the franks, the man knows what he wants.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Polish spicy dog.

WOODRUFF: And?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The ex-actor.

WOODRUFF: Meaning Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose fans won't let reports of grabbing and groping tarnish their star.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It doesn't bother me at all. Could care less.

WOODRUFF: Talk to many true blue Arnoldites and you'll hear a mess of contradictions.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't really think Schwarzenegger is qualified, but I do think he might be able to get the job done.

WOODRUFF: And one strong conviction: their man's been set up, even if they can't agree on the source of the dirty tricks.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Gray Davis kind of engaged in a smear campaign.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, not Davis, the other lady -- what's her name? That lady he's always arguing with.

WOODRUFF: You mean Arianna Huffington?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's the one. I think she's behind it.

WOODRUFF: The reporters leading the coverage of the Schwarzenegger scandal insist they tracked down his accusers themselves, but Arnold fans don't buy it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why now would they bring it up after it happened years ago? It doesn't fit.

WOODRUFF: And don't seem to care anyway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was a long time ago. So I don't think it matters. I don't think he still does it. He's married, he's got a wife. I don't think he's a pervert or anything.

WOODRUFF: Recall opponents see no cause for suspicion.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's been known for a long time that this guy has been groping women, and it's -- you know, it's never been a secret. So I don't see why it's a surprise now.

WOODRUFF: They contend the groping tales reveal a lot.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It has to do with his character or lack of character and whether people can trust him. And, you know, it's just -- I think that he's just not ready for politics.

WOODRUFF: On Schwarzenegger's star on the walk of fame: incredulity.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Clinton can't do it with someone that wants to get along with him, so to speak. But you know it's just amazing that Arnold can get away with anything. He has a lot of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) on him, I guess.

WOODRUFF: And ultimately acceptance.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People are forgiving. This country's forgiving. I still supported Clinton. Why not?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: So that's what the voters are saying, at least some of them. Let's find out now what some of the insiders in the campaigns are saying. For that, let's turn to our Bob Franken, who's been out here covering every detail of this election.

Bob, we know that last week and over the weekend, the polls weren't showing a lot of movement. What are you hearing about the internal polling?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it depends on who you talk to. The internal polling, of course being the so-called private campaign polling. But as we found out now, they are using their internal polls to spin the election, the way each candidate is doing so.

First of all, let's talk about what the Democrats say their internal polling shows. What they say is support for the recall has dropped considerably. As a matter of fact, they now say it is within a statistical margin of error. That is to say, it is a dead heat.

According to the Schwarzenegger people, their poll, they say, still shows 55 percent favor the recall. As for Schwarzenegger himself, since all these allegations have come out about them, the Democrats say there has been a precipitous drop in his favorable ratings, that women who are supporting him have dropped also. He's always had, in political parlance, a gender problem -- that is to say, a woman problem -- and that the unfavorables among women has really increased. I'm sorry for the double negative, but that's how they put it. But they all agree that schwarzenegger's lead over Cruz Bustamante s pretty much the same, seven or eight points.

Probable the most honest comment we got from one of the people involved in this is that no one knows really how to poll a recall, whether it's a public poll or whether it's this. So we've learned our lessons, of course, about polls and their fallibilities, and this one may be one we're going to learn some new things about polls.

WOODRUFF: In our lifetime we haven't covered anything like this. All right. We know that you've covered a lot of campaigns; I've covered a couple. What about the idea, Bob, that this has really come down to the Arnold Schwarzenegger at the end of the campaign? Is anybody surprised?

FRANKEN: Well, hardly, because remember this has always been about Arnold Schwarzenegger. This became of such huge interest after Arnold Schwarzenegger decided he was running on the Jay Leno show, and this has all along been more about Arnold Schwarzenegger and his efforts to become governor than what is really the fundamental part of his race, and that is whether to recall the sitting governor, Gray Davis. It's been all about Arnold since the beginning, and it's all about Arnold Schwarzenegger now.

WOODRUFF: All right. Bob Franken, our steady presence right here in Los Angeles, thanks very much. Let's see how long this goes after the voting takes place tomorrow.

Well, yes, there are -- I'm sorry, wrong camera. We'll get this straight. I'm not used to being in Los Angeles.

There are other recall candidates on the trail today. We're going to catch up with them in this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS. But many still see this race as Arnold versus Gray Davis. I'm going to talk to top officials from both camps about their 11th- hour strategies.

Plus, she is out of the running, but still outspoken about the recall. Arianna Huffington joins us with her take on the closing hours and controversies of the camp cam.

And the reports that put Arnold Schwarzenegger on the defensive. Are critics justifying in blaming the messenger?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: On this final day of campaigning before California voters head to the polls, the leading Democrat among the replacement candidates is out shaking hands and trying to drum up support. Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante stumping today in Los Angeles, in Oakland, and San Francisco. Bustamante is running second in the polls to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Another Republican contender, state Senator Tom McClintock, is concentrating today on conservative talk radio interviews. McClintock trails both Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. We'll have a live interview with McClintock next hour.

Well, as we've said, Governor Gray Davis and Arnold Schwarzenegger are on the trail themselves in the final hours of this recall campaign. We have a guest from the Schwarzenegger camp with us just ahead. But first, Steve Smith is Governor Davis' campaign director, and he joins us now.

Steve Smith, we're hearing that you are getting some favorable news in your internal tracking polls in the last few days. What do you say to people, though, who say, oh, yes, you just say that. What's really going on?

STEVE SMITH, DAVIS CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR: Well, what's really going on is this race has essentially boiled down to a two-candidate race, if you will, and the polls on both sides, the public polls, all show it's tightening dramatically. It's come down to either folks who want to vote to make Arnold Schwarzenegger governor, or folks who want to retain Gray Davis as governor.

The interesting thing about this ballot, of course, is there are two different questions. If you want to vote for the governor, you have to vote "no" on the first question. If you want to vote for Arnold, you have to vote for Arnold on the second question. It makes it a slightly more interesting race.

WOODRUFF: But polling is notoriously unreliable on weekends. We've heard that about politics for years. You've also got the fact that there's never been an election quite like this one. How do you know that you should have any reason to hope here?

SMITH: Well, there is no question that the race is tightening. How much it's tightening and whether we're two points ahead or two points behind, that I don't think anybody is for certain. And the other thing about all the polls, you are absolutely right.

No one is certain how to poll this race. It is a two-question race, not a one-question race, and, frankly, the polling could have been off for a month or months and we wouldn't have known it because no one has done this before on a statewide basis.

WOODRUFF: What is the governor doing, what are you all doing to get the vote out, the vote that you know you can count on?

SMITH: It's essentially in some ways a very traditional campaign at the campaign level. We are making phone calls, we're sending people door to door. We are doing all of the kinds of things you do at the end of campaign.

The governor is doing what he's done really for the last six or eight weeks, and that is, in relatively small forums, discussing issues in Sacramento, in the Bay area, and in Los Angeles today, just reaching out and touching voters and re-establishing his connection with them.

WOODRUFF: And what is he saying to those people who just say, I've just had enough of Gray Davis? What is he saying to those people?

SMITH: Well, for those folks, you have to look at what's really happened in California. While the economy of course nationally has gone into the tank, here in California we've actually had more jobs created than we've lost. So there's a lot of good stories to be told in the midst of what is essentially economic bad times.

WOODRUFF: I'm sure you know, Steve Smith, that Schwarzenegger himself and his campaign are accusing Governor Davis of what they call "puke politics, puke campaign" in connection with these allegations by women. What does your campaign have to say about this?

SMITH: Well, I mean the bottom line for Mr. Schwarzenegger is the public has to decide who's lying. Either he's lying, or 15 women and their families are lying.

He keeps trying to say that we dredged it all up. It came out of the "L.A. Times," it's now come out of a number of other news sources. More women keep showing up each day with more stories.

It's really going to be up to the voters to decide who's telling the truth here and who is not. The issue is not, frankly, where the stories came from, although they did come from the "L.A. Times." The issue is, are they true or not?

Arnold has said sometimes they are and sometimes they're not. He's given the answer on both sides of the issue. Somehow he's going to have to convince the voters that he's not lying.

WOODRUFF: But a number of voters we interviewed -- and we showed this just a few minutes ago -- are saying, well, the fact that it's come out at the last minute, this has got to be just politics.

SMITH: Well, I mean, how the "L.A. Times" decides when they decide to publish their stories -- I suspect stories were brought to them as the campaign heated up, and it took them a while to investigate the stories. I don't know how the "L.A. Times" works internally. It was their story.

WOODRUFF: Last question: what's going to happen tomorrow night?

SMITH: Boy, I tell you, I don't know. I think we're going to win, but I think it's going to be a long night.

WOODRUFF: All right. That's what we all love.

SMITH: Thanks.

WOODRUFF: We love those long campaign nights. Steve Smith, who is director of the Gray Davis campaign to remain governor of the state of California, thank you very much.

SMITH: Thanks, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Thanks, Steve.

Well, now let's turn to the Schwarzenegger campaign. And spokeswoman Karen Hanretty is with us from Culver City.

Karen, first of all, what about Steve Smith's comment there just a moment ago that it's really up to the voters to determine who's telling the truth here, despite what your candidate is saying about the Davis campaign is guilty of "puke politcs?"

KAREN HANRETTY, SCHWARZENEGGER SPOKESWOMAN: Well, first of all, our campaign did not term the phrase "puke politics." It was actually Attorney General Bill Lockyer, who's a Democrat, and he said it about a member of his own party, Gray Davis.

But you know, on tomorrow, on October 7th, when the voter goes to the polls, there is such tremendous enthusiasm and momentum for the candidacy of Arnold Schwarzenegger. I truly believe that voters are going to elect him the next governor.

They're tired of this negative campaigning by Gray Davis. They've seen it for the past five years. We saw it in the last election.

You know, in 2002, we had an all-time low voter turnout largely because voters were so disgusted. Democrats, in particular, were so disgusted and tired of the negative campaigning by Gray Davis. And I think that's what we're seeing in this go-around.

WOODRUFF: What about the point -- another point that Steve Smith just made, that at one point Mr. Schwarzenegger said he was apologizing and if he had misbehaved he felt badly about that. On the other hand, he later said what these women are saying is not the truth. Which is it?

HANRETTY: Well, look, when he has said, yes, is that he's engaged in some rowdy behavior. He apologizes if he offended anyone in the past. But, look, a lot of these allegations that have come out in the "L.A. Times" are unsubstantiated.

When the "L.A. Times" calls our campaign office at 10:00 at night and insists that we respond to allegations of women who are unnamed, we have no way to identify any of the sources, that's yellow journalism. I think that the "L.A. Times" should be held to a much higher standard as the paper of record in the state of California.

Voters are very discouraged with the "L.A. Times." It's not just Democrats and Gray Davis. It's the media who take these allegations in the 11th hour of a very important campaign, probably one of the most important gubernatorial campaigns in the history of California, and run with them without doing any kind of investigation of their own.

WOODRUFF: I have to ask you one other question, and that is that Mr. Schwarzenegger's comment last night that he wouldn't deal with these allegations now, that he would deal with them after the election. Aren't the voters owed a specific response before the election?

HANRETTY: Look, the voters have made very clear to us in the phone calls we're receiving, the e-mails, the outpouring of support. Ten thousand supporters turned out yesterday in Sacramento to see Arnold Schwarzenegger, the next governor of California.

They are very suspicious of these last-minute, 11th-hour allegations. Tomorrow they are going to turn out to the polls. They are calling their friends, their families, their neighbors, telling them, vote "yes" on the recall, vote "yes" on Arnold Schwarzenegger.

WOODRUFF: Karen Hanretty, what is the candidate doing today to get out the vote, and what is your entire campaign working on today?

HANRETTY: Today is a fantastic day. We are following up the bus tour with a fly around, around the state of California. We are hitting Huntington Beach. We were in San Jose earlier today. We'll be in riverside this afternoon.

You know it's more of the same of Arnold Schwarzenegger meeting and greeting voters personally, shaking their hands, hearing their concerns, asking them, vote for me, vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger on October 7th. Tell your friends, your family, your neighbors. This is an important election. Vote "yes" on recall and "yes" Schwarzenegger.

WOODRUFF: And I have a feeling if I ask you who's going to win tomorrow night, you'd say Arnold Schwarzenegger.

HANRETTY: Arnold Schwarzenegger is the next governor of California.

WOODRUFF: All right. I took the words right out of your mouth. Karen Hanretty, good to see you again. Thanks for talking with me. We appreciate it.

Well, she is out of the race, but she is still speaking out. Coming up next, I'll talk with Arianna Huffington about the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And later, another actor turned California politician comments on the recall campaign. We'll tell you what he has to say.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Thanks for rejoining us. We are in Los Angeles today because California is where the political action is this week. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Governor Gray Davis criss-crossing the state on this final full day of campaigning before tomorrow's recall vote.

Schwarzenegger rallied supporters last hour in San Jose, the first of three campaign stops today. He made no mention of the allegations of sexual misconduct that shadowed him throughout the weekend. Governor Davis started his day at a forum for young voters in Sacramento. He plans to stop in San Francisco this afternoon before a primetime get-out-the-vote rally in downtown Los Angeles.

Well, Arianna Huffington is on the ballot in tomorrow's election, but she dropped out of the race last week, and she's devoted her energy since then to campaigning against the recall. Arianna Huffington is with me now from Sacramento.

It's good to see you again. I want to ask you first about what the Schwarzenegger campaign is saying. They are saying with regard to the allegations of some of these women who have come forward, that one of the women in particular is a good friend of yours. In fact, has given your campaign money.

What do you say to that?

ARIANNA HUFFINGTON, FMR. CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Actually, one of the women who came forward in the second round that the "L.A. Times" published, Collette Brooks (ph), did contribute to my campaign. She had actually told me that story long before she came out, and then she decided to come out after the original "L.A. Times" story.

I don't think that has anything to do with anything. All these are women whose stories have been corroborated by the "L.A. Times". The journalist who wrote the "L.A. Times" story, Judy, is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist. And it's really absurd to be claiming that the "L.A. Times" was in some way in cahoots with the Davis campaign in putting forward these charges.

In fact, if you think of it, the Schwarzenegger damage control has gone through six stages. First of all, they denied everything. Then they blamed the Davis campaign. Then they rationalized the behavior as part of being on rowdy sets.

Then he apologized. Then they said, let's move on. And then they went full circle to denial and blame. So it's not exactly a very coherent strategy.

WOODRUFF: Well, and yet at the same time, Arianna Huffington, we've spoken today and over the weekend with California voters who -- many of whom say they just dismiss this as politics, that they expect that there was a clear political motive here, they're not sure why all of this came out at the last minute. Couldn't this end up not hurting Arnold Schwarzenegger at all?

HUFFINGTON: Well, there is no question, Judy, that it's really hitting him at this core issue of trust and credibility, especially when a candidate does not have a track record, so he can't say, look what I did for the state over the last five, six years. The public is left with the issue of trust. Do we know this man? Do we trust this man? And these allegations are undoubtedly very troubling, especially for women. I mean, nobody can read the stories in that detail, corroborated by third parties, and not be concerned about the possibility of this man being the governor of the state. Both on a very substantive level and on a practical level, do we really want a chief executive who's going to be plagued by charges like that?

WOODRUFF: Arnold Schwarzenegger said in an interview last night with Tom Brokaw on NBC that he would be prepared to deal with some of the specifics after the election; that right now, he wants to get on with his campaign.

HUFFINGTON: Well, he says the same thing about balancing the budget, Judy. He says, you know, we'll balance the budget without increasing taxes and with repealing the car tax, which is about $4 billion, but I'm going to tell you how I'm going to do it after the election. I think that doesn't show a lot of respect for the voters, and the voters of California would like some details right now, not after the election.

WOODRUFF: What do you think is going to happen? You're obviously talking to a lot of political people today. You're privy to some polling information. What is your sense of what's going to finally come out tomorrow?

HUFFINGTON: Well, I think, Judy, in the end it's going to come down to the people who are planning to vote for the recall. The people who are longing for change are completely sure, but who need to be convinced, and that's really the task of the remaining hours. That despite their longing for change, voting for the recall is actually a step backward. It's actually making things worse, even though the longing and the hope are very legitimate.

Schwarzenegger is not an agent of change. He's a typical Bush Republican, surrounded by (UNINTELLIGIBLE), and basically his election would mean handing over the state to the Republican forces that brought us deregulation of the energy industry...

WOODRUFF: All right...

HUFFINGTON: ... and all of those things that we didn't want.

WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to have to leave it there, Arianna Huffington, and we've talked to you a number of times throughout this campaign. We appreciate you talking to us today.

HUFFINGTON: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Thanks very much.

Well, let's say that Arnold Schwarzenegger wins tomorrow's election. What happens next? We'll get out our political crystal ball when we return live from Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIAN QUINN (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: My name is Brian Quinn. I'm a 21-year-old college student at the University of the Pacific. I'm an entrepreneurship major at the business department here.

I think California should declare itself insolvent. A lot of cities have done it in the past, and I think it's time for California to step up to the plate and do the same -- $38 billion in debt and probably another $10 to $15 billion this year. California is not going to be able to get out of it. They're, you know, chained down by all of these long-term contracts they have, and it's time that they need to get freed by them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Political analyst Ron Brownstein with the "Los Angeles Times" is with me now to talk about the latest developments in the California recall, now just hours away.

Ron, not just about the recall, but what happens after. You in your column today in the "L.A. Times" described it as a car wreck.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "L.A. TIMES": Yes.

WOODRUFF: What is it going to be like in the state, no matter who wins tomorrow?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think it will be an extraordinary polarizing event. I mean, the Schwarzenegger campaign began. I think it may still recover the opportunity to change the image of the Republican Party in the state, Judy. One of the problems they've had here is that they've been unable to get candidates through the primary process, who are moderate enough on social issues to appeal to the broader electorate. And the opportunity that Schwarzenegger created for Republicans was by jumping over the primary process and going directly to the voters for the recall. They could nominate someone and perhaps elect someone who is moderate on social issues, pro-public education and fiscally conserve -- something much closer to the mainstream of the state.

The problem he's got is that these extraordinary allegations, which have emerged at the end of the campaign, I think, are turning this into a much more polarizing event. You have a much more conventional Republican appeal in all likelihood, and it will make it harder for him to broaden the base of the party.

WOODRUFF: Are you saying that there is going to be no incentive for the people on the other side, if Schwarzenegger were to win, little incentive for Democrats to work with him and even some conservative Republicans?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think especially among the Democrats. Look, it is entirely possible -- we'll have to see how the votes are counted -- but it's entirely possible that more people will vote tomorrow to keep Gray Davis as governor than to make Schwarzenegger governor. And yet, Schwarzenegger could still become the governor because Davis needs to reach 50 percent.

In that circumstance and with all of this as the backdrop, it's hard to see what incentive there will be for the Democratic majority in the state legislature to be very cooperative, especially if you see polling that shows Schwarzenegger's approval is under 50 percent and very polarized, as we see at the national level.

WOODRUFF: That would be an extraordinary circumstance, reminiscent of 2000 in the presidential campaign. Ron, what about right now in these final hours? What are you hearing? I know you're talking to all of the campaigns. What are you hearing about what you're seeing?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, as you know, the Democrats are saying things are looking better. The Republicans, by and large, are saying no, it's fine. I was struck, I had a conversation with a senior Republican in Washington this morning, who told me that every day when he comes into work he has e-mails from the Schwarzenegger campaign and other Republicans out here on how great the polls are looking. There was nothing in his mailbox this morning, so that may be a signal.

On the other hand, even when the Davis people say that the recall is tightening, their own polling shows about two-thirds of Californians have a negative view of his job performance, and that is just a big rock to roll up a hill. It is still, I think, difficult to survive in that circumstance.

WOODRUFF: I have to ask you a final question or two, Ron...

BROWNSTEIN: Sure.

WOODRUFF: ... about the "Los Angeles Times." A lot of allegations coming back from the Schwarzenegger campaign.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: We just heard Karen Hanradi (ph), spokeswoman for Schwarzenegger, saying that the "L.A. Times" is guilty of yellow journalism, calling the campaign late at night to get answers to allegations.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: Just generally painting all of this as suspicious.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, let's walk through it, as best -- as I have not written any of these stories myself, but I've talked to the editors who have been involved. First of all, we began investigating these stories shortly after Mr. Schwarzenegger entered the race, and they were not printed until we felt comfortable that they had been checked and that everything was in order; that there was a clear filter established for these allegations. But we did not print any allegation where the person had not complained contemporaneously or at least long before the recall. And it was put in the paper as soon as it was finished.

I can't believe that anyone in this process on either side would have preferred that the "L.A. Times" rush this into print at some point, before they felt comfortable in it.

So, I think that they had a very clear -- it was not launched at the last minute. It was not held until the last minute. It went through the natural journalistic process. This is when it was completed, and this is when it was presented to the public.

WOODRUFF: All right. Ron Brownstein reflecting what the editors of the "Los Angeles Times" had been saying.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: And they've been asked the same question.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, yes.

WOODRUFF: All right, Ron, thank you very much.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: And we'll be talking to you a lot in the next few days.

BROWNSTEIN: All right, see you.

WOODRUFF: Well, it is an election like none other, and it could mean a huge turnout at the polls. Are California officials ready for a wave of recall voters? We'll look at their preparations next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL WOSNIAK (D), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: My name is Michael Wosniak, and I'm a retired Oakland police officer.

My campaign (UNINTELLIGIBLE) no cry babies. It is an attempt to tell people that it seems to me that people who feel less fortunate, people who feel like they've been left behind develop an attitude that they're a victim. I believe that if you get up and go to work and apply yourself and enjoy and appreciate what you have, that's the key to success. Working within the system, working to change things is the fundamental reason why I'm in the race for governor.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Arnold Schwarzenegger and Governor Gray Davis working to make the recall a two-man race, but Republican Tom McClintock says he is still a factor. He'll join me live ahead on this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: If Governor Gray Davis were recalled, it could take up to six weeks before his successor is sworn in. After voting ends, county officials have 28 days to provide a final count of their ballots, and every county's ballot is different. This is what the Los Angeles County ballot looks like. L.A. County has more than four million voters, and officials say they expect to take all four weeks to review their ballots.

Well, after the county numbers are certified by the state, which could take 11 more days, voters have five additional days to request a recount. The person who requests the recount has to pay for it day by day. It might be a disincentive.

If the recount overturns the election, the person who requests the recount gets his or her money back, however.

Well, the recall has captured the attention of California voters, to put it mildly, which could mean a very busy and potentially confusing day at the polls.

CNN's Miguel Marquez reports on how election officials plan to handle the expected big voter turnout.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Millions of California absentee ballots and thousands of voters already making their choices at touch screen stations around L.A. It adds up to an increase in voter interest.

(on camera): Do you always vote?

MARIA DEELIAS, LOS ANGELES VOTER: I try to.

MARQUEZ: But not always.

DEELIAS: Not always.

MARQUEZ: Why it was important to vote this time?

DEELIAS: The recall.

MARQUEZ: Why? What's so important about the recall that you had to vote for the recall?

DEELIAS: Well, it kind of got everybody's attention.

MARQUEZ (voice-over): It sure does. Statewide voter registration is up to a record high. More Californians registered than ever have for a governor's race, but the recall, of course, is not a typical race.

CONNY MCCORMACK, L.A. COUNTY REGISTRAR: I think we're going to have a really big turnout on election day, and I think that's great for the voters. But I do caution people to please, you know, try to think about the fact when millions of people all do the same thing on one election day, there might, you know, a couple of little snafus.

MARQUEZ: Snafus, situation normal, all fouled up. With less than half of the typical number of polling places open statewide, voters may find long lines and parking shortages. That is, if they can first find their new voting place. And bigger problems loom. If the vote is close, the eventual winner could come down to a few hundred thousand uncounted absentee ballots.

MCCORMACK: Routinely, in every election in California about 10 to 11 percent of the ballots aren't counted on election night. They're added in on the days following the election. So, if an election is close, yes, they could make a difference.

MARQUEZ: And counting absentee votes labor-intensive. So, it could take a few days. But if the vote is that close:

BRUCE CAIN, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-BERKELEY: If the election is within a few percentage points, then that's a possibility. Either the recall part or the Cruz Bustamante versus Arnold Schwarzenegger section of the ballot, if either one of those are tight, then it seems to me the prospects for litigation are almost certain.

MARQUEZ (on camera): So, just how long could the vote count take? Well, each of California's 58 counties have 28 days to count their votes, and then the secretary of state has 10 days to certify it. All of that assumes no lawsuits.

Miguel Marquez, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Which would make it all much more complicated.

Well, he is no stranger to acting or politics. Just ahead, find out what Clinton Eastwood has to say about the recall election and about Arnold Schwarzenegger.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Absentee ballots could play a big role in tomorrow's California recall election. More than two million votes have already been cast, a record for absentee and early voting.

With us now from Sacramento, Ken Alexander with the California Voter Foundation.

Thank you very much for talking with us.

KIM ALEXANDER, CALIFORNIA VOTER FOUNDATION: Hi, Judy.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, first of all, about the fact that there are more Californians registered to vote tomorrow than there were not just in the last governor election last November, but in the last three presidential elections. What do you know about who these voters are?

ALEXANDER: Well, we know that there are 15.4 million registered California voters. We have almost 22 million eligible voters. So, we still have a lot of people who are eligible, but not registered.

The California electorate tends to be different from the California public in that the voters usually are wealthier, less diverse, ethnically, more likely to be homeowners, better educated than the population as a whole. So, if we do have a big turnout tomorrow, and many are predicting that we will, I expect that a lot of those people coming out will result in more diversity in the electorate than we've seen in the past.

WOODRUFF: So, in other words, those new people -- something like 400,000 who have registered just in the last couple of months -- you think there may be more diversity.

ALEXANDER: Well, I hope so. I mean, I think that we may see more younger people running. We may see -- I'm sorry -- more younger people voting. We may see more younger voters who are Latino coming out to vote because of Cruz Bustamante's campaign.

So, we'll wait and see what the exit polls say tomorrow. There will be, I understand, at least two of them, and we'll be able to find out whether our electorate is becoming more diverse or if it turns out to be the same as it's been.

WOODRUFF: We mentioned there is a record number of absentee ballots and early voting that's already taken place -- over two million. Do you think we're looking at a record turnout?

ALEXANDER: Well, you know, one thing that's tricky about California turnout is that we have a lot of people who are eligible to vote, and our population is always increasing. So, it's very hard for the percentage of registered and eligible and participating voters to keep pace with the expanding electorate. But I think what I'm looking at is the bottom line, and if we have between 10 and 12 million people voting in California, it will likely be one of the biggest turnouts numbers-wise that we've seen ever in the state. But it may be that the percentage of registered or eligible is not record breaking, depending on how those numbers shake out.

WOODRUFF: Kim Alexander, two quick last questions.

ALEXANDER: Sure.

WOODRUFF: One is, if the turnout is lower or higher, can you say with any assuredness who that helps or hurts?

ALEXANDER: I can't. I think that what's really important is that there will be a lot of -- I expect a lot of first-time voters coming out to the polls. They may be unfamiliar with their voting equipment. They may not be on the voter roll. So, people are going to need to be patient. And I hope that the more experienced voters in California will make sure to look out for those newer voters and help them have a positive voting experience, so that they'll keep coming back to future California elections.

WOODRUFF: Some of these ballots are interesting, with not being an in alphabetical order and 135 names.

Kim, finally, if this is a close election, how long might we wait to get the results, to know the results?

ALEXANDER: Well, there is a very important process in California called the manual count, where we use paper ballots to verify the accuracy of the automated vote totals, and that's part of the canvas process. That has to happen in every county. With the paper-based voting systems in most counties, we can do that process. With the touch screen voting systems in four counties, it's going to be a question of how that's going to go.

But I think that we may be waiting a couple of weeks even to get the final count, depending on how close the early absentee ballots are and the polling place votes.

WOODRUFF: A couple of weeks. We're all looking forward to it. Kim Alexander, thanks very much, with the California Voter Foundation. Thank you very much.

ALEXANDER: Thanks for having me.

WOODRUFF: Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger, of course, is not the first California actor to enter politics. Clint Eastwood was once mayor of Carmel, California, and we've heard of a man named Ronald Reagan.

But in an interview with CNN's Paula Zahn, Eastwood said that he wasn't interested in getting involved in the recall battle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINT EASTWOOD, ACTOR: I'm friends with Arnold. It's a big dilemma. Dena (ph) and I have both sort of stayed out of it. We don't know too much about it, any more than the guy and gal on the street.

PAULA ZAHN, CNN HOST: Do you miss being there?

EASTWOOD: No, not at all. When this whole recall thing started, people started saying, hey, Clint, why don't you get in? You know, I'll get the guys across the street working on the building. Hey, Clint, run for, you know, governor. And I said no chance, fellows. You're going to have to let somebody else have that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: You can see the full exclusive interview with Clint Eastwood later on "PAULA ZAHN NOW." That's at 8:00 Eastern, 5:00 Pacific.

Along this day before the recall, Gray Davis may be asking himself how he got where he is today. Bill Schneider will have some thoughts on that.

Plus, the Bush White House faces a turning point of its own tomorrow. We'll get plugged in on the leak investigation in this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRISTOPHER SPROUL (D), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Christopher Sproul, an environmental attorney in California and doing public interest law on behalf of the people of this state, trying to protect the clean air and clean water. I joined the race originally to satirize the recall, which I saw as a ridiculous process. The standard for removing the governor should be something similar to the standard for removing the president. That should be reserved for high crimes and misdemeanors.

So, I have to confess, it’s a rather unique political strategy running for office, urging people not to elect me. But I'm actually undecided myself who I'm going to vote for on the second part of the ballot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Can't wait for INSIDE POLITICS? Get your early morning fix by clicking onto our new daily political column, "The Morning Grind." It's got a quick digest of candidates' schedules, an overview of what to expect today, and links to the day's hottest political stories. Everything you'll need to tide you over until 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Check it out at www.cnn.com/allpolitics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: The California recall countdown. One more day and lots of ground to cover. Will Gray Davis overcome public anger and keep his job?

DAVIS: And I think they'll decide this recall is not in their best interests.

ANNOUNCER: Will Arnold Schwarzenegger overcome a last-minute slew of allegations and take over the governor's office?

SCHWARZENEGGER: We are here, ladies and gentlemen, to clean house!

ANNOUNCER: Davis and Schwarzenegger bill the recall as a two-man race, but candidate Tom McClintock is refusing to be counted out.

TOM MCCLINTOCK (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: And I will support and defend.

ANNOUNCER: How did California get from there to here? We'll look at the clues voters left behind in elections past.

Now, live from Los Angeles, a special edition of JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Well, hello again from California, where the final day of campaigning before tomorrow's recall vote is a study in contrast, much like the two leading figures in the race. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been working a crowd in San Jose and exuding star power in his push to become the state's next governor. Instead of talking about the growing list of women who say they were groped by the actor, Schwarzenegger is urging voters to toss Gray Davis out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCHWARZENEGGER: Look what this administration has done in the last five years to us. They've run the economy down. Our economy's spiraling down, down, down. And we are losing jobs. They're chasing jobs and businesses out of the state and now it is time that we chase Gray Davis out of Sacramento.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Well as is often his way, Governor Davis was pretty low key a bit earlier today during a youth rally Sacramento. He talked more about education than about Schwarzenegger. But he did work to get out his vote.

Well our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley has been covering both the Davis and the Schwarzenegger campaigns. Candy, you spent the last few days with Davis. How are you they dealing with where things stand? What do they think right now's going to happen?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well they think they're in a much better position than they used to be. I mean that's very clear from what they're saying and it's clear that you can feel the tone of the campaign and their they're a lot more upbeat.

And they are clearly using the Schwarzenegger information. I mean this is a group that started out not because the Republicans were giving them trouble. But the fact is that Gray Davis' problem has always been with Democrats.

So what they needed to do was to figure out how to bring those Democrats home. So they started out with this is a right-wing power grab, this is like impeachment, this is like Florida. It didn't really move the polls that much. In fact, you know, the numbers kept getting worse for recall. Then they focused it down to, OK, do you really want Arnold?

And they thought people -- the Democrats would look and say, Oh my goodness. He's too inexperienced. Do you really want Arnold, or do you want me? And so they brought it down to that. And then by serendipity or something else, what happens is all these things come down on top of Arnold.

So in these past couple of days what the Davis campaign has tried to do is bring home the 27 percent of Democrats that say they want to recall Gray Davis. And they were quite obvious about it. I want to play you a cut here from a couple of days ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVIS: If the news events over the last couple of days have raised any doubts in your mind about the wisdom of electing Arnold Schwarzenegger, I say to you come home, vote no on the recall. No on the recall. No on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CROWLEY: So, basically, what you have here is what is standard in the last days of an election which is try to bring home your power base. Added onto it we have these sort of anti-Schwarzenegger stories. Gray Davis thinks that those two combined together may help him put pull out what would be a surprise.

WOODRUFF: You're one of the few reporters that's been with both campaigns, Candy. How do you contrast the two?

CROWLEY: Oh, wow! You know, look, they're both playing to their strengths, clearly. The Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign knows very well how to put on a production. He has some very schooled Republicans with him. He's also an actor. So you get wild and crazy kind of crowds. I mean, you know, big turnout and all of these places. And the bands and the buses and the this and the that.

And then you have Gray Davis. Gray Davis has never been accused of inspiring a lot of passion in the voters. So, you know, you see these -- he's in very small forms, women's events. He's in -- today he was at a school with a bunch of kids under 18 talking about education. Not your sort of classic end of campaign things that you have. So he plays to his strength. In addition it doesn't make you explain why there aren't a lot of people out for you if you do these little forums.

Yesterday it was very surreal where you saw the governor and a candidate cross paths, where you had the bill signing ceremony for Gray Davis. But before he got on stage, they had him come out and blast Schwarzenegger and they handed the people in the crowd for the bill signing the no recall signs. So they are combining this together. It's been interesting.

WOODRUFF: He's bee walking a fine line, but now I guess they're marching to tomorrow. OK, Candy, thanks very much. And she's going to be with Governor Davis again tonight at the rally in Los Angeles.

All right. Which camera is it? I'm guessing right here! On the eve of the recall vote, Governor Davis' career may be flashing before his eyes and at least it may be flashing to the days before his political problems mushroomed. Let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

All right, Bill, tell us. How did Davis get into the position that he is in today?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, we look back at the 2002 election when Davis was the incumbent governor running for reelection and we found a big surprise. Take a look at these figures. We asked people how they thought the economy was going and this is the percentage who were voting for Davis last year.

The people who thought the economy was in excellent shape, 14 percent for David. Good shape, 36. Not so good, 56. And those who said the economy was in poor shape voted 70 percent for Gray Davis. The worse you thought the economy was, the more likely you were to vote for Davis, the incumbent governor.

Now what is going to there? Each though Gray Davis was running for reelection, 2002, last year became a national referendum on President Bush who made himself the issue by campaigning all over the country that year. So voters were angry with Bush over the economy, voted against the Republicans and for the Democrats, and that included the incumbent Democratic Governor Gray Davis.

The bad economy, in other words, helped Gray Davis last year, but it's hurting him now because this year the recall is a referendum on Davis. And interestingly, President Bush has made himself very scarce in this recall campaign.

WOODRUFF: Bill, what about the voters who have basically left Gray Davis? People he might have counted on before, but he can't count on right now.

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well we found that in 2002 that voters began to abandon him even that year. Even though it was a referendum on Bush, Davis was not popular either. Both Bush and Davis had lost support. Look at Davis' vote among some critical groups. He carried men in 1998. In 2002, he had lost 12 points. Independents, he carried them in '98, 12 points lower in 2002. White voters, he split them in '98, but he was down to 38 percent support among white voters in 2002.

Now, these are his base voters. His base is clearly weakening. More than three-quarters of Latino voters voted if for Davis in 1998, that's down to now to fewer than two-third. Or rather it was down in 2002 to fewer than two-thirds.

Women he carried handsomely, easily with 60 percent in 1998. Last year he barely got a majority of the vote among women, which indicates that even as early as a year ago, when he did get reelected, his base was weakening and he had lost critical groups.

WOODRUFF: OK. Bill Schneider looking very closely at what's happened to Gray Davis over the past year. Thanks very much, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

WOODRUFF: Well Governor Davis is getting help from his friends in our recall election of our "Campaign News Daily." Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein is on the air with a new TV ad asking voters to vote no on the recall. Senator Feinstein doesn't mention Davis or Arnold Schwarzenegger by name, but she suggests that state voters gives what she calls serious consideration to the allegations against the man she refers to as the governor's opponent.

Three heavy hitters in the Democratic Party have recorded get out the vote phone calls on the governor's behalf. Democratic households around the state are receiving recorded messages from Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Barbra Streisand, all part of the Davis team's effort to energize the party base.

Well now to President Bush's political headaches. At the White House today he expressed confidence that the Justice Department can thoroughly investigate the leak of an undercover CIA agent's identity. And there is word of a new phase in the reconstruction effort in Iraq. Our senior White House correspondent John King is in Washington. John, where are you going to begin?

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Judy, I'll begin with the CIA leak investigation. I spoke to a government source not long ago who said this investigation is now, quote, "in a very active phase." The source would want confirm as of yet whether any White House officials have been interviewed or those interviewed scheduled, but said look for the pace to accelerate in the days ahead.

Now Mr. Bush spoke to this issue today. The president of Kenya is here for an official state visit. Mr. Bush has a news conference, he was questioned about the leak investigation. For the first time, Mr. Bush referred to it as a, quote, "criminal matter." He also says he expects his aides to fully cooperate and to turn documents over to the Justice Department in a timely manner.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: We will cooperate fully with the Justice Department. I've got all the confidence in the world the Justice Department will do a good, thorough job. And that's exactly what I want them to do is a good, thorough job. I'd like to know who leaked.

And if anybody's got any information inside our government or outside the government who leaked they ought to take it to the Justice Department so we can find out the leaker.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: A 5:00 deadline tomorrow, a little more than 24 hours away for 2,000 White House aides to go back through all their records, e- mails, phone logs, diaries and the like, turn over any relevant document to the Justice Department.

More than 200 had complied by early this morning. Most of them aides who said they had no records and simply signed certification to that effect. Judy, call around the White House today and many aides in addition to doing the official daily duties are taking care of that, going back through the e-mail looking to see if they have anything to turn over by tomorrow's deadline.

WOODRUFF: All right, John, let me turn you to Iraq. What's the strategy behind the White House now saying they're going to get more directly involved in the reconstruction of Iraq?

KING: The public line is rather matter of factly saying, of course, as the reconstruction effort goes on in Iraq and Afghanistan that the National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice would take a more active role, coordinating things throughout the agencies.

But privately, aides say there is no question, especially as 87 billion more dollars in U.S. money prepares to go into the pipeline, especially as the president's polling is down, criticism of the post- war efforts in Iraq is up, that Mr. Bush wants a more serious, more sustainable day-to-day White House role in decision-making.

So Condoleezza Rice now will take a much more accurate role. They are insisting here at the White House that Ambassador Bremer in Iraq will continue to report to Secretary Rumsfeld. But certainly the White House taking a higher profile in the decision-making -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right, John. Many of us had the impression the White House was already watching that very closely. This means they're watching it even more closely.

KING: There you go.

WOODRUFF: All right. John, thank you very much.

Well, also raising eyebrows in Washington, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. We'll have the "Inside Buzz" on why she may be getting under the skin of some '04 Democrats.

And our California recall countdown will continue with the man Arnold Schwarzenegger could not force out of the race. Tom McClintock will join us live.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGY RUSSELL (D), CALIF. GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Georgy Russell and I'm a software engineer ask I'm running for governor of California.

California has what is now a plutocracy, a government for the rich and I want to see California return to a democracy. I stand for abolition of the death penalty, passage of the gay marriage initiative and fiscal discipline in California.

My lack of experience, I believe is actually an asset and not a deficit. Our governor, who is being recalled, shows us that experienced politicians can't necessarily get the job done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: The debate over the rebuilding of Iraq is quickly becoming a major issue in the Democratic race for president.

With me now is our Congressional correspondent, Jonathan Karl.

And Jon, how did the -- the question of whether the president's going to get that $87 billion for Iraq make it into a candidate's ad already?

JONATHAN KARL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, what's happening here is that candidate, John Edwards, is running the first ad criticizing the $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan because Edwards' strategist believed that this issue resonates more loudly with voters than even the whole controversy over the leaks and other things related to Iraq. They think this money for Iraq is an issue that really resonates with the voters, which is why they're running this ad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Eight-seven billion for Iraq with no plan in sight. Billion dollar giveaways for the president's oil industry friends like Halliburton. And no help from the allies he shut out. Is this our America? Well, I will not give this president a blank check. We should stop the inside deals and work with our allies in Iraq.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KARL: Now the response from Republicans from -- comes from RNC spokesman Jim Dyke, who says Edwards for months has been running ads about himself has not gained traction. So now, Dyke says, he's moving to the Howard Dean wing of the party.

But this ad is interesting for one reason especially, and that is because it puts Edwards in a position of voting against aid to the troops in Iraq.

Now Judy, as you know, Edwards has been -- and other candidates have been criticizing the reconstruction money for Iraq, saying that they want to give the money for the troops. But at the end of day, this will be an up or down vote on both $87 billion likely, including money for the troops.

WOODRUFF: Jon, separate development. We've learned that Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has agreed to emcee an event out in Iowa involving all of the '04 presidential hopefuls and how are the candidate reacting?

KARL: Well this is interesting. Publicly they have nothing, but good things to say about Senator Clinton. But privately in the words of one senior Democrat from Iowa, this has created a furor among the other Democratic candidates, some of whom are very concerned that Hillary Clinton will go to this major even in Iowa, the Jefferson Jackson Dinner -- it's a major road to the nomination -- and steal their thunder. All of the attention will go to Hillary Clinton, not to the other 10 Democrats who are actually running for president.

I am told that at least one candidate directly contacted the Iowa Democratic Party to express concerns about this and another spokesman for another party said -- another candidate said it makes her look petty like, she's trying to take all of the attention from the candidate. So Hillary Clinton will be welcomed very loudly at this event, but many of those other Democrats who are running for president are very concerned that she's stealing their thunder.

WOODRUFF: Stakes are high, I guess.

KARL: Yes.

WOODRUFF: John Karl at the Capitol reporting on this campaign, thank you very much. And we have one quick additional story we want to tell you about, and that is that the campaign of retired Army General Wesley Clark is announcing that the new candidate in the Democratic race has raised $3.5 million in the third quarter of this year. That is more than Clark's campaign. had indicated just a short while ago they were able to raise, so putting him on the map, you might say.

Well, Republican Tom McClintock back here in California makes good on his vow to stay in the race until the very end. He joins me next to talk about the recall, about his opponents and his expectations for Election Day.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: California State Senator Tom McClintock repeatedly vowed that he would not drop out of the recall race. And on the day before the vote, he is still a candidate, despite a lot of pressure from some fellow Republicans. But how much of a factor will he be at poll tomorrow?

Tom McClintock is with us now from Sacramento.

Tom McClintock, what do you really believe is going to happen tomorrow night?

MCCLINTOCK: Well, I think we have the makings for an upset. The same polls that have me in third place are also saying that the public by wide margins are saying that I would be the best candidate for the job, that I would do the best job, that I'm the best qualified, that I have the character and integrity they want to see by wide margins.

So my message to those folks is it's all right to vote your conscience. If everybody who's telling the pollsters they believe I'd do the best job actually votes for me on Election Day, we'll win.

WOODRUFF: There are some Davis polls, poll numbers that CNN has seen that indicate something like 28 percent of people who are supporting you, say they are going to vote no on the recall. How do you explain that?

MCCLINTOCK: Well, I -- I don't try to explain that. I don't understand that myself. I certainly urging a yes vote on the recall. I think getting rid for this corrupt and incompetent governor is the most important thing that this generation can do to begin to set things right.

WOODRUFF: You don't think those are people who could be concerned about Mr. Schwarzenegger?

MCCLINTOCK: That may reflect the concern about Mr. Schwarzenegger. But the message I've been trying to project is a positive one and that is that we do have an historic opportunity to roll back the taxes and regulations that are choking off our economy. This is the moment in time we can do that as a generation.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you about these -- the allegations by these now 15 women who have come forward. Their stories have been told in "The Los Angeles Times."

Arnold Schwarzenegger said last night in an interview that he doesn't want to talk about the specifics now, that he will deal with those after the election. Are you satisfied with that?

MCCLINTOCK: No, I'm not. I think that he needs to come forth and forthrightly explain his response to these charges which are very serious.

I'm disturbed by two thing about the charges. One is the very serious nature, the conduct that is alleged is reprehensible. But I'm also disturbed about the fact that they've only been brought up in the last four or five days of the election. And I -- just as someone who's been involved in politics a long time, I am very skeptical and very cautious about attacks on a candidate's character coming so close to an election.

But I do think that...

WOODRUFF: So are you...

(CROSSTALK)

MCCLINTOCK: But I do I think there's a lot that Arnold Schwarzenegger could do simply by stepping forward and helping the public sort out what's fact and what's not.

WOODRUFF: Do you think that there should in any way be an investigation here?

MCCLINTOCK: Well unfortunately, there's no time for an investigation. The election is tomorrow and the people are going to have to sort through as best they can what are the facts and what are not. And again, I think that Arnold Schwarzenegger could help them a lot in that regard.

WOODRUFF: When you say you're suspicious because these charges have come up so late, "The Los Angeles Times" is saying they pursued these reports, talked to these women and they got this information out there as quickly as they could confirm it. Do you just not accept that?

MCCLINTOCK: I'm just very concerned that the allegations which go back a number of years have only come to light in the last four or five days of the election.

And again, I don't remember to minimize how serious they are. I have a 13-year-old daughter. Those charges hit home, if they're true. Certainly that is reprehensible behavior. But again, we don't know because there's not enough time to sort it out and again, I do believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger could help by telling us what is fact and what is not.

WOODRUFF: Tom McClintock, telling us that he's got hope for tomorrow night. Thank you very much.

MCCLINTOCK: Thanks for having me, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Senator McClintock, good to see you again. We appreciate it.

Thank you.

MCCLINTOCK: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Well, it's a new day in Louisiana politics. Coming up, find out what is unique about the upcoming run-off for governor in that Deep South state.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Well, among other things, diversity will be in the spotlight as Louisiana voters choose a new governor next month. An Indian-American will face the state's first female lieutenant governor in the November 15 run off.

Bobby Jindal captured 33 percent of the vote on Saturday to lead the way into the run-off. Jindal is a conservative Republican.

Kathleen Blanco came in second with 18 percent.

Now this is a first for Louisiana, where for generations, white males have dominated politics and have all been elected governor.

Well, that's it for this edition of INSIDE POLITICS. On Recall Election Day Tomorrow, join me for another 90-minute special from Los Angeles. Will there be voting problems that some have feared? We'll check in with the California secretary of state and have much more tomorrow. That's at 3 p.m. Eastern, noon Pacific.

Thanks for joining us. I'm Judy Woodruff.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Election>


Aired October 6, 2003 - 16:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: And thank you for joining us for this special 90-minute edition of the show on this day before the California recall election. Arnold Schwarzenegger's spokeswoman is denying that his campaign is losing momentum, but the Republican candidate for governor still is struggling to put sexual misconduct allegations behind him.
Governor Gray Davis certainly isn't helping that cause as he presses for an explanation from Schwarzenegger while fighting to keep his own job. The two are pointing fingers at one another as they make their final campaign swings across the state. Schwarzenegger stumping in San Jose, Huntington Beach and San Bernardino today. CNN's Kelly Wallace is along for the ride.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Arnold Schwarzenegger made a very unconventional entrance into this race, announcing his candidacy on "The Tonight Show." Well, he is wrapping it up with a little bit of Politics 101: doing what he can to get out the vote.

The GOP front-runner is flying around the state, along with his wife, Maria Shriver. His message: that he and his aides believe they have the momentum despite allegations of sexual misconduct against Schwarzenegger and also questions about his past statements concerning Adolph Hitler.

Here in San Jose, the first of three stops, Schwarzenegger didn't mention any of the controversies. Instead, he tried to drum up opposition to embattled Governor Gray Davis.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Gray Davis has terminated jobs, Gray Davis has terminated dreams. Gray Davis has terminated opportunities. And now it's time we terminate Gray Davis.

WALLACE: Aides continued to say their overnight polling showing the recall passing by a pretty good margin, and showing Schwarzenegger leading the major Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante. But these aides also concede ultimately they won't know what the voters think until tomorrow. What they are hoping, though is that the timing of these allegations, what the Schwarzenegger campaign is calling a dirty politics smear campaign, will end up hurting Governor Gray Davis more than the candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Kelly Wallace, CNN, reporting from San Jose, California.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Well, meantime, Governor Davis says the momentum is turning his way and that he will manage to pull out a win when Californians vote tomorrow. The Democrat taking his message to Sacramento, San Francisco and Los Angeles today.

CNN's Dan lothian is traveling with the Davis campaign. Dan, what are they saying? How is it going?

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Judy, Governor Davis obviously feeling a little bit more upbeat now that those numbers are showing that it really is a jump ball on this recall vote. And of course we won't know that until the end of tomorrow, perhaps even after tomorrow. But the governor, as you mentioned, making campaign stops not only in Sacramento, but San Francisco and Los Angeles.

He began his day this morning here in Sacramento meeting with a young voters forum. Governor Davis trying to make a convincing argument as to why he should remain the governor of California. He leaned on these young people for them to in turn lean on their family members. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GRAY DAVIS (D), CALIFORNIA: If you have a chance to talk to your siblings who are 18 or older, and your parents and your grandmother, anyone, I'd appreciate it if you would ask them to vote no as well. I'm asking you to ask them to vote. Tell them I'm asking them through you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOTHIAN: Governor Davis, of course, trying to find votes wherever he can, and he's focusing on Democrats. And 27 percent of Democrats have in recent polls said that they did support the recall. He's hopeful that he can convince them to reverse that decision -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Dan, how much is Governor Davis -- how much are the people around him bringing up these last-minute allegations against Schwarzenegger?

LOTHIAN: Well, so far this morning we have not heard anything about that. His first meeting, of course, before young people, so we did not expect him to bring out those allegations. But throughout the weekend, the governor did, every chance that he got, bring up this issue, saying that it was disturbing, this information.

He was really trying to seize on this controversy, calling even for an investigation. And he was surrounded by key Democrats who also kept pushing that theme, that somebody needs to look into these allegations. So certainly, this has been the central focus of this campaign in the last few days. Some of the other things, such as the economy and other key issues, have fallen by the wayside. For the most part, it's been about Arnold Schwarzenegger and these 15 allegation of sexual misconduct.

WOODRUFF: All right. Dan Lothian, who is following Governor Davis around this state this day. Dan, thanks very much.

Well, Davis and Schwarzenegger are giving Californians plenty to chew on as they sort through the allegations against the actor and prepare to cast their ballots tomorrow.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF (voice-over): At Pink's (ph) politics is sidelined by more pressing priorities.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm thinking about hot dogs, actually.

WOODRUFF: And like dozens of Angelinos who line up for the franks, the man knows what he wants.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Polish spicy dog.

WOODRUFF: And?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The ex-actor.

WOODRUFF: Meaning Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose fans won't let reports of grabbing and groping tarnish their star.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It doesn't bother me at all. Could care less.

WOODRUFF: Talk to many true blue Arnoldites and you'll hear a mess of contradictions.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't really think Schwarzenegger is qualified, but I do think he might be able to get the job done.

WOODRUFF: And one strong conviction: their man's been set up, even if they can't agree on the source of the dirty tricks.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Gray Davis kind of engaged in a smear campaign.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, not Davis, the other lady -- what's her name? That lady he's always arguing with.

WOODRUFF: You mean Arianna Huffington?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's the one. I think she's behind it.

WOODRUFF: The reporters leading the coverage of the Schwarzenegger scandal insist they tracked down his accusers themselves, but Arnold fans don't buy it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why now would they bring it up after it happened years ago? It doesn't fit.

WOODRUFF: And don't seem to care anyway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That was a long time ago. So I don't think it matters. I don't think he still does it. He's married, he's got a wife. I don't think he's a pervert or anything.

WOODRUFF: Recall opponents see no cause for suspicion.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's been known for a long time that this guy has been groping women, and it's -- you know, it's never been a secret. So I don't see why it's a surprise now.

WOODRUFF: They contend the groping tales reveal a lot.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It has to do with his character or lack of character and whether people can trust him. And, you know, it's just -- I think that he's just not ready for politics.

WOODRUFF: On Schwarzenegger's star on the walk of fame: incredulity.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Clinton can't do it with someone that wants to get along with him, so to speak. But you know it's just amazing that Arnold can get away with anything. He has a lot of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) on him, I guess.

WOODRUFF: And ultimately acceptance.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People are forgiving. This country's forgiving. I still supported Clinton. Why not?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: So that's what the voters are saying, at least some of them. Let's find out now what some of the insiders in the campaigns are saying. For that, let's turn to our Bob Franken, who's been out here covering every detail of this election.

Bob, we know that last week and over the weekend, the polls weren't showing a lot of movement. What are you hearing about the internal polling?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it depends on who you talk to. The internal polling, of course being the so-called private campaign polling. But as we found out now, they are using their internal polls to spin the election, the way each candidate is doing so.

First of all, let's talk about what the Democrats say their internal polling shows. What they say is support for the recall has dropped considerably. As a matter of fact, they now say it is within a statistical margin of error. That is to say, it is a dead heat.

According to the Schwarzenegger people, their poll, they say, still shows 55 percent favor the recall. As for Schwarzenegger himself, since all these allegations have come out about them, the Democrats say there has been a precipitous drop in his favorable ratings, that women who are supporting him have dropped also. He's always had, in political parlance, a gender problem -- that is to say, a woman problem -- and that the unfavorables among women has really increased. I'm sorry for the double negative, but that's how they put it. But they all agree that schwarzenegger's lead over Cruz Bustamante s pretty much the same, seven or eight points.

Probable the most honest comment we got from one of the people involved in this is that no one knows really how to poll a recall, whether it's a public poll or whether it's this. So we've learned our lessons, of course, about polls and their fallibilities, and this one may be one we're going to learn some new things about polls.

WOODRUFF: In our lifetime we haven't covered anything like this. All right. We know that you've covered a lot of campaigns; I've covered a couple. What about the idea, Bob, that this has really come down to the Arnold Schwarzenegger at the end of the campaign? Is anybody surprised?

FRANKEN: Well, hardly, because remember this has always been about Arnold Schwarzenegger. This became of such huge interest after Arnold Schwarzenegger decided he was running on the Jay Leno show, and this has all along been more about Arnold Schwarzenegger and his efforts to become governor than what is really the fundamental part of his race, and that is whether to recall the sitting governor, Gray Davis. It's been all about Arnold since the beginning, and it's all about Arnold Schwarzenegger now.

WOODRUFF: All right. Bob Franken, our steady presence right here in Los Angeles, thanks very much. Let's see how long this goes after the voting takes place tomorrow.

Well, yes, there are -- I'm sorry, wrong camera. We'll get this straight. I'm not used to being in Los Angeles.

There are other recall candidates on the trail today. We're going to catch up with them in this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS. But many still see this race as Arnold versus Gray Davis. I'm going to talk to top officials from both camps about their 11th- hour strategies.

Plus, she is out of the running, but still outspoken about the recall. Arianna Huffington joins us with her take on the closing hours and controversies of the camp cam.

And the reports that put Arnold Schwarzenegger on the defensive. Are critics justifying in blaming the messenger?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: On this final day of campaigning before California voters head to the polls, the leading Democrat among the replacement candidates is out shaking hands and trying to drum up support. Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante stumping today in Los Angeles, in Oakland, and San Francisco. Bustamante is running second in the polls to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Another Republican contender, state Senator Tom McClintock, is concentrating today on conservative talk radio interviews. McClintock trails both Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. We'll have a live interview with McClintock next hour.

Well, as we've said, Governor Gray Davis and Arnold Schwarzenegger are on the trail themselves in the final hours of this recall campaign. We have a guest from the Schwarzenegger camp with us just ahead. But first, Steve Smith is Governor Davis' campaign director, and he joins us now.

Steve Smith, we're hearing that you are getting some favorable news in your internal tracking polls in the last few days. What do you say to people, though, who say, oh, yes, you just say that. What's really going on?

STEVE SMITH, DAVIS CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR: Well, what's really going on is this race has essentially boiled down to a two-candidate race, if you will, and the polls on both sides, the public polls, all show it's tightening dramatically. It's come down to either folks who want to vote to make Arnold Schwarzenegger governor, or folks who want to retain Gray Davis as governor.

The interesting thing about this ballot, of course, is there are two different questions. If you want to vote for the governor, you have to vote "no" on the first question. If you want to vote for Arnold, you have to vote for Arnold on the second question. It makes it a slightly more interesting race.

WOODRUFF: But polling is notoriously unreliable on weekends. We've heard that about politics for years. You've also got the fact that there's never been an election quite like this one. How do you know that you should have any reason to hope here?

SMITH: Well, there is no question that the race is tightening. How much it's tightening and whether we're two points ahead or two points behind, that I don't think anybody is for certain. And the other thing about all the polls, you are absolutely right.

No one is certain how to poll this race. It is a two-question race, not a one-question race, and, frankly, the polling could have been off for a month or months and we wouldn't have known it because no one has done this before on a statewide basis.

WOODRUFF: What is the governor doing, what are you all doing to get the vote out, the vote that you know you can count on?

SMITH: It's essentially in some ways a very traditional campaign at the campaign level. We are making phone calls, we're sending people door to door. We are doing all of the kinds of things you do at the end of campaign.

The governor is doing what he's done really for the last six or eight weeks, and that is, in relatively small forums, discussing issues in Sacramento, in the Bay area, and in Los Angeles today, just reaching out and touching voters and re-establishing his connection with them.

WOODRUFF: And what is he saying to those people who just say, I've just had enough of Gray Davis? What is he saying to those people?

SMITH: Well, for those folks, you have to look at what's really happened in California. While the economy of course nationally has gone into the tank, here in California we've actually had more jobs created than we've lost. So there's a lot of good stories to be told in the midst of what is essentially economic bad times.

WOODRUFF: I'm sure you know, Steve Smith, that Schwarzenegger himself and his campaign are accusing Governor Davis of what they call "puke politics, puke campaign" in connection with these allegations by women. What does your campaign have to say about this?

SMITH: Well, I mean the bottom line for Mr. Schwarzenegger is the public has to decide who's lying. Either he's lying, or 15 women and their families are lying.

He keeps trying to say that we dredged it all up. It came out of the "L.A. Times," it's now come out of a number of other news sources. More women keep showing up each day with more stories.

It's really going to be up to the voters to decide who's telling the truth here and who is not. The issue is not, frankly, where the stories came from, although they did come from the "L.A. Times." The issue is, are they true or not?

Arnold has said sometimes they are and sometimes they're not. He's given the answer on both sides of the issue. Somehow he's going to have to convince the voters that he's not lying.

WOODRUFF: But a number of voters we interviewed -- and we showed this just a few minutes ago -- are saying, well, the fact that it's come out at the last minute, this has got to be just politics.

SMITH: Well, I mean, how the "L.A. Times" decides when they decide to publish their stories -- I suspect stories were brought to them as the campaign heated up, and it took them a while to investigate the stories. I don't know how the "L.A. Times" works internally. It was their story.

WOODRUFF: Last question: what's going to happen tomorrow night?

SMITH: Boy, I tell you, I don't know. I think we're going to win, but I think it's going to be a long night.

WOODRUFF: All right. That's what we all love.

SMITH: Thanks.

WOODRUFF: We love those long campaign nights. Steve Smith, who is director of the Gray Davis campaign to remain governor of the state of California, thank you very much.

SMITH: Thanks, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Thanks, Steve.

Well, now let's turn to the Schwarzenegger campaign. And spokeswoman Karen Hanretty is with us from Culver City.

Karen, first of all, what about Steve Smith's comment there just a moment ago that it's really up to the voters to determine who's telling the truth here, despite what your candidate is saying about the Davis campaign is guilty of "puke politcs?"

KAREN HANRETTY, SCHWARZENEGGER SPOKESWOMAN: Well, first of all, our campaign did not term the phrase "puke politics." It was actually Attorney General Bill Lockyer, who's a Democrat, and he said it about a member of his own party, Gray Davis.

But you know, on tomorrow, on October 7th, when the voter goes to the polls, there is such tremendous enthusiasm and momentum for the candidacy of Arnold Schwarzenegger. I truly believe that voters are going to elect him the next governor.

They're tired of this negative campaigning by Gray Davis. They've seen it for the past five years. We saw it in the last election.

You know, in 2002, we had an all-time low voter turnout largely because voters were so disgusted. Democrats, in particular, were so disgusted and tired of the negative campaigning by Gray Davis. And I think that's what we're seeing in this go-around.

WOODRUFF: What about the point -- another point that Steve Smith just made, that at one point Mr. Schwarzenegger said he was apologizing and if he had misbehaved he felt badly about that. On the other hand, he later said what these women are saying is not the truth. Which is it?

HANRETTY: Well, look, when he has said, yes, is that he's engaged in some rowdy behavior. He apologizes if he offended anyone in the past. But, look, a lot of these allegations that have come out in the "L.A. Times" are unsubstantiated.

When the "L.A. Times" calls our campaign office at 10:00 at night and insists that we respond to allegations of women who are unnamed, we have no way to identify any of the sources, that's yellow journalism. I think that the "L.A. Times" should be held to a much higher standard as the paper of record in the state of California.

Voters are very discouraged with the "L.A. Times." It's not just Democrats and Gray Davis. It's the media who take these allegations in the 11th hour of a very important campaign, probably one of the most important gubernatorial campaigns in the history of California, and run with them without doing any kind of investigation of their own.

WOODRUFF: I have to ask you one other question, and that is that Mr. Schwarzenegger's comment last night that he wouldn't deal with these allegations now, that he would deal with them after the election. Aren't the voters owed a specific response before the election?

HANRETTY: Look, the voters have made very clear to us in the phone calls we're receiving, the e-mails, the outpouring of support. Ten thousand supporters turned out yesterday in Sacramento to see Arnold Schwarzenegger, the next governor of California.

They are very suspicious of these last-minute, 11th-hour allegations. Tomorrow they are going to turn out to the polls. They are calling their friends, their families, their neighbors, telling them, vote "yes" on the recall, vote "yes" on Arnold Schwarzenegger.

WOODRUFF: Karen Hanretty, what is the candidate doing today to get out the vote, and what is your entire campaign working on today?

HANRETTY: Today is a fantastic day. We are following up the bus tour with a fly around, around the state of California. We are hitting Huntington Beach. We were in San Jose earlier today. We'll be in riverside this afternoon.

You know it's more of the same of Arnold Schwarzenegger meeting and greeting voters personally, shaking their hands, hearing their concerns, asking them, vote for me, vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger on October 7th. Tell your friends, your family, your neighbors. This is an important election. Vote "yes" on recall and "yes" Schwarzenegger.

WOODRUFF: And I have a feeling if I ask you who's going to win tomorrow night, you'd say Arnold Schwarzenegger.

HANRETTY: Arnold Schwarzenegger is the next governor of California.

WOODRUFF: All right. I took the words right out of your mouth. Karen Hanretty, good to see you again. Thanks for talking with me. We appreciate it.

Well, she is out of the race, but she is still speaking out. Coming up next, I'll talk with Arianna Huffington about the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

And later, another actor turned California politician comments on the recall campaign. We'll tell you what he has to say.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Thanks for rejoining us. We are in Los Angeles today because California is where the political action is this week. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Governor Gray Davis criss-crossing the state on this final full day of campaigning before tomorrow's recall vote.

Schwarzenegger rallied supporters last hour in San Jose, the first of three campaign stops today. He made no mention of the allegations of sexual misconduct that shadowed him throughout the weekend. Governor Davis started his day at a forum for young voters in Sacramento. He plans to stop in San Francisco this afternoon before a primetime get-out-the-vote rally in downtown Los Angeles.

Well, Arianna Huffington is on the ballot in tomorrow's election, but she dropped out of the race last week, and she's devoted her energy since then to campaigning against the recall. Arianna Huffington is with me now from Sacramento.

It's good to see you again. I want to ask you first about what the Schwarzenegger campaign is saying. They are saying with regard to the allegations of some of these women who have come forward, that one of the women in particular is a good friend of yours. In fact, has given your campaign money.

What do you say to that?

ARIANNA HUFFINGTON, FMR. CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Actually, one of the women who came forward in the second round that the "L.A. Times" published, Collette Brooks (ph), did contribute to my campaign. She had actually told me that story long before she came out, and then she decided to come out after the original "L.A. Times" story.

I don't think that has anything to do with anything. All these are women whose stories have been corroborated by the "L.A. Times". The journalist who wrote the "L.A. Times" story, Judy, is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist. And it's really absurd to be claiming that the "L.A. Times" was in some way in cahoots with the Davis campaign in putting forward these charges.

In fact, if you think of it, the Schwarzenegger damage control has gone through six stages. First of all, they denied everything. Then they blamed the Davis campaign. Then they rationalized the behavior as part of being on rowdy sets.

Then he apologized. Then they said, let's move on. And then they went full circle to denial and blame. So it's not exactly a very coherent strategy.

WOODRUFF: Well, and yet at the same time, Arianna Huffington, we've spoken today and over the weekend with California voters who -- many of whom say they just dismiss this as politics, that they expect that there was a clear political motive here, they're not sure why all of this came out at the last minute. Couldn't this end up not hurting Arnold Schwarzenegger at all?

HUFFINGTON: Well, there is no question, Judy, that it's really hitting him at this core issue of trust and credibility, especially when a candidate does not have a track record, so he can't say, look what I did for the state over the last five, six years. The public is left with the issue of trust. Do we know this man? Do we trust this man? And these allegations are undoubtedly very troubling, especially for women. I mean, nobody can read the stories in that detail, corroborated by third parties, and not be concerned about the possibility of this man being the governor of the state. Both on a very substantive level and on a practical level, do we really want a chief executive who's going to be plagued by charges like that?

WOODRUFF: Arnold Schwarzenegger said in an interview last night with Tom Brokaw on NBC that he would be prepared to deal with some of the specifics after the election; that right now, he wants to get on with his campaign.

HUFFINGTON: Well, he says the same thing about balancing the budget, Judy. He says, you know, we'll balance the budget without increasing taxes and with repealing the car tax, which is about $4 billion, but I'm going to tell you how I'm going to do it after the election. I think that doesn't show a lot of respect for the voters, and the voters of California would like some details right now, not after the election.

WOODRUFF: What do you think is going to happen? You're obviously talking to a lot of political people today. You're privy to some polling information. What is your sense of what's going to finally come out tomorrow?

HUFFINGTON: Well, I think, Judy, in the end it's going to come down to the people who are planning to vote for the recall. The people who are longing for change are completely sure, but who need to be convinced, and that's really the task of the remaining hours. That despite their longing for change, voting for the recall is actually a step backward. It's actually making things worse, even though the longing and the hope are very legitimate.

Schwarzenegger is not an agent of change. He's a typical Bush Republican, surrounded by (UNINTELLIGIBLE), and basically his election would mean handing over the state to the Republican forces that brought us deregulation of the energy industry...

WOODRUFF: All right...

HUFFINGTON: ... and all of those things that we didn't want.

WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to have to leave it there, Arianna Huffington, and we've talked to you a number of times throughout this campaign. We appreciate you talking to us today.

HUFFINGTON: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Thanks very much.

Well, let's say that Arnold Schwarzenegger wins tomorrow's election. What happens next? We'll get out our political crystal ball when we return live from Los Angeles.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIAN QUINN (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: My name is Brian Quinn. I'm a 21-year-old college student at the University of the Pacific. I'm an entrepreneurship major at the business department here.

I think California should declare itself insolvent. A lot of cities have done it in the past, and I think it's time for California to step up to the plate and do the same -- $38 billion in debt and probably another $10 to $15 billion this year. California is not going to be able to get out of it. They're, you know, chained down by all of these long-term contracts they have, and it's time that they need to get freed by them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Political analyst Ron Brownstein with the "Los Angeles Times" is with me now to talk about the latest developments in the California recall, now just hours away.

Ron, not just about the recall, but what happens after. You in your column today in the "L.A. Times" described it as a car wreck.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "L.A. TIMES": Yes.

WOODRUFF: What is it going to be like in the state, no matter who wins tomorrow?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think it will be an extraordinary polarizing event. I mean, the Schwarzenegger campaign began. I think it may still recover the opportunity to change the image of the Republican Party in the state, Judy. One of the problems they've had here is that they've been unable to get candidates through the primary process, who are moderate enough on social issues to appeal to the broader electorate. And the opportunity that Schwarzenegger created for Republicans was by jumping over the primary process and going directly to the voters for the recall. They could nominate someone and perhaps elect someone who is moderate on social issues, pro-public education and fiscally conserve -- something much closer to the mainstream of the state.

The problem he's got is that these extraordinary allegations, which have emerged at the end of the campaign, I think, are turning this into a much more polarizing event. You have a much more conventional Republican appeal in all likelihood, and it will make it harder for him to broaden the base of the party.

WOODRUFF: Are you saying that there is going to be no incentive for the people on the other side, if Schwarzenegger were to win, little incentive for Democrats to work with him and even some conservative Republicans?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think especially among the Democrats. Look, it is entirely possible -- we'll have to see how the votes are counted -- but it's entirely possible that more people will vote tomorrow to keep Gray Davis as governor than to make Schwarzenegger governor. And yet, Schwarzenegger could still become the governor because Davis needs to reach 50 percent.

In that circumstance and with all of this as the backdrop, it's hard to see what incentive there will be for the Democratic majority in the state legislature to be very cooperative, especially if you see polling that shows Schwarzenegger's approval is under 50 percent and very polarized, as we see at the national level.

WOODRUFF: That would be an extraordinary circumstance, reminiscent of 2000 in the presidential campaign. Ron, what about right now in these final hours? What are you hearing? I know you're talking to all of the campaigns. What are you hearing about what you're seeing?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, as you know, the Democrats are saying things are looking better. The Republicans, by and large, are saying no, it's fine. I was struck, I had a conversation with a senior Republican in Washington this morning, who told me that every day when he comes into work he has e-mails from the Schwarzenegger campaign and other Republicans out here on how great the polls are looking. There was nothing in his mailbox this morning, so that may be a signal.

On the other hand, even when the Davis people say that the recall is tightening, their own polling shows about two-thirds of Californians have a negative view of his job performance, and that is just a big rock to roll up a hill. It is still, I think, difficult to survive in that circumstance.

WOODRUFF: I have to ask you a final question or two, Ron...

BROWNSTEIN: Sure.

WOODRUFF: ... about the "Los Angeles Times." A lot of allegations coming back from the Schwarzenegger campaign.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: We just heard Karen Hanradi (ph), spokeswoman for Schwarzenegger, saying that the "L.A. Times" is guilty of yellow journalism, calling the campaign late at night to get answers to allegations.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: Just generally painting all of this as suspicious.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, let's walk through it, as best -- as I have not written any of these stories myself, but I've talked to the editors who have been involved. First of all, we began investigating these stories shortly after Mr. Schwarzenegger entered the race, and they were not printed until we felt comfortable that they had been checked and that everything was in order; that there was a clear filter established for these allegations. But we did not print any allegation where the person had not complained contemporaneously or at least long before the recall. And it was put in the paper as soon as it was finished.

I can't believe that anyone in this process on either side would have preferred that the "L.A. Times" rush this into print at some point, before they felt comfortable in it.

So, I think that they had a very clear -- it was not launched at the last minute. It was not held until the last minute. It went through the natural journalistic process. This is when it was completed, and this is when it was presented to the public.

WOODRUFF: All right. Ron Brownstein reflecting what the editors of the "Los Angeles Times" had been saying.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

WOODRUFF: And they've been asked the same question.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, yes.

WOODRUFF: All right, Ron, thank you very much.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: And we'll be talking to you a lot in the next few days.

BROWNSTEIN: All right, see you.

WOODRUFF: Well, it is an election like none other, and it could mean a huge turnout at the polls. Are California officials ready for a wave of recall voters? We'll look at their preparations next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL WOSNIAK (D), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: My name is Michael Wosniak, and I'm a retired Oakland police officer.

My campaign (UNINTELLIGIBLE) no cry babies. It is an attempt to tell people that it seems to me that people who feel less fortunate, people who feel like they've been left behind develop an attitude that they're a victim. I believe that if you get up and go to work and apply yourself and enjoy and appreciate what you have, that's the key to success. Working within the system, working to change things is the fundamental reason why I'm in the race for governor.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Arnold Schwarzenegger and Governor Gray Davis working to make the recall a two-man race, but Republican Tom McClintock says he is still a factor. He'll join me live ahead on this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: If Governor Gray Davis were recalled, it could take up to six weeks before his successor is sworn in. After voting ends, county officials have 28 days to provide a final count of their ballots, and every county's ballot is different. This is what the Los Angeles County ballot looks like. L.A. County has more than four million voters, and officials say they expect to take all four weeks to review their ballots.

Well, after the county numbers are certified by the state, which could take 11 more days, voters have five additional days to request a recount. The person who requests the recount has to pay for it day by day. It might be a disincentive.

If the recount overturns the election, the person who requests the recount gets his or her money back, however.

Well, the recall has captured the attention of California voters, to put it mildly, which could mean a very busy and potentially confusing day at the polls.

CNN's Miguel Marquez reports on how election officials plan to handle the expected big voter turnout.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Millions of California absentee ballots and thousands of voters already making their choices at touch screen stations around L.A. It adds up to an increase in voter interest.

(on camera): Do you always vote?

MARIA DEELIAS, LOS ANGELES VOTER: I try to.

MARQUEZ: But not always.

DEELIAS: Not always.

MARQUEZ: Why it was important to vote this time?

DEELIAS: The recall.

MARQUEZ: Why? What's so important about the recall that you had to vote for the recall?

DEELIAS: Well, it kind of got everybody's attention.

MARQUEZ (voice-over): It sure does. Statewide voter registration is up to a record high. More Californians registered than ever have for a governor's race, but the recall, of course, is not a typical race.

CONNY MCCORMACK, L.A. COUNTY REGISTRAR: I think we're going to have a really big turnout on election day, and I think that's great for the voters. But I do caution people to please, you know, try to think about the fact when millions of people all do the same thing on one election day, there might, you know, a couple of little snafus.

MARQUEZ: Snafus, situation normal, all fouled up. With less than half of the typical number of polling places open statewide, voters may find long lines and parking shortages. That is, if they can first find their new voting place. And bigger problems loom. If the vote is close, the eventual winner could come down to a few hundred thousand uncounted absentee ballots.

MCCORMACK: Routinely, in every election in California about 10 to 11 percent of the ballots aren't counted on election night. They're added in on the days following the election. So, if an election is close, yes, they could make a difference.

MARQUEZ: And counting absentee votes labor-intensive. So, it could take a few days. But if the vote is that close:

BRUCE CAIN, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-BERKELEY: If the election is within a few percentage points, then that's a possibility. Either the recall part or the Cruz Bustamante versus Arnold Schwarzenegger section of the ballot, if either one of those are tight, then it seems to me the prospects for litigation are almost certain.

MARQUEZ (on camera): So, just how long could the vote count take? Well, each of California's 58 counties have 28 days to count their votes, and then the secretary of state has 10 days to certify it. All of that assumes no lawsuits.

Miguel Marquez, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOODRUFF: Which would make it all much more complicated.

Well, he is no stranger to acting or politics. Just ahead, find out what Clinton Eastwood has to say about the recall election and about Arnold Schwarzenegger.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Absentee ballots could play a big role in tomorrow's California recall election. More than two million votes have already been cast, a record for absentee and early voting.

With us now from Sacramento, Ken Alexander with the California Voter Foundation.

Thank you very much for talking with us.

KIM ALEXANDER, CALIFORNIA VOTER FOUNDATION: Hi, Judy.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you, first of all, about the fact that there are more Californians registered to vote tomorrow than there were not just in the last governor election last November, but in the last three presidential elections. What do you know about who these voters are?

ALEXANDER: Well, we know that there are 15.4 million registered California voters. We have almost 22 million eligible voters. So, we still have a lot of people who are eligible, but not registered.

The California electorate tends to be different from the California public in that the voters usually are wealthier, less diverse, ethnically, more likely to be homeowners, better educated than the population as a whole. So, if we do have a big turnout tomorrow, and many are predicting that we will, I expect that a lot of those people coming out will result in more diversity in the electorate than we've seen in the past.

WOODRUFF: So, in other words, those new people -- something like 400,000 who have registered just in the last couple of months -- you think there may be more diversity.

ALEXANDER: Well, I hope so. I mean, I think that we may see more younger people running. We may see -- I'm sorry -- more younger people voting. We may see more younger voters who are Latino coming out to vote because of Cruz Bustamante's campaign.

So, we'll wait and see what the exit polls say tomorrow. There will be, I understand, at least two of them, and we'll be able to find out whether our electorate is becoming more diverse or if it turns out to be the same as it's been.

WOODRUFF: We mentioned there is a record number of absentee ballots and early voting that's already taken place -- over two million. Do you think we're looking at a record turnout?

ALEXANDER: Well, you know, one thing that's tricky about California turnout is that we have a lot of people who are eligible to vote, and our population is always increasing. So, it's very hard for the percentage of registered and eligible and participating voters to keep pace with the expanding electorate. But I think what I'm looking at is the bottom line, and if we have between 10 and 12 million people voting in California, it will likely be one of the biggest turnouts numbers-wise that we've seen ever in the state. But it may be that the percentage of registered or eligible is not record breaking, depending on how those numbers shake out.

WOODRUFF: Kim Alexander, two quick last questions.

ALEXANDER: Sure.

WOODRUFF: One is, if the turnout is lower or higher, can you say with any assuredness who that helps or hurts?

ALEXANDER: I can't. I think that what's really important is that there will be a lot of -- I expect a lot of first-time voters coming out to the polls. They may be unfamiliar with their voting equipment. They may not be on the voter roll. So, people are going to need to be patient. And I hope that the more experienced voters in California will make sure to look out for those newer voters and help them have a positive voting experience, so that they'll keep coming back to future California elections.

WOODRUFF: Some of these ballots are interesting, with not being an in alphabetical order and 135 names.

Kim, finally, if this is a close election, how long might we wait to get the results, to know the results?

ALEXANDER: Well, there is a very important process in California called the manual count, where we use paper ballots to verify the accuracy of the automated vote totals, and that's part of the canvas process. That has to happen in every county. With the paper-based voting systems in most counties, we can do that process. With the touch screen voting systems in four counties, it's going to be a question of how that's going to go.

But I think that we may be waiting a couple of weeks even to get the final count, depending on how close the early absentee ballots are and the polling place votes.

WOODRUFF: A couple of weeks. We're all looking forward to it. Kim Alexander, thanks very much, with the California Voter Foundation. Thank you very much.

ALEXANDER: Thanks for having me.

WOODRUFF: Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger, of course, is not the first California actor to enter politics. Clint Eastwood was once mayor of Carmel, California, and we've heard of a man named Ronald Reagan.

But in an interview with CNN's Paula Zahn, Eastwood said that he wasn't interested in getting involved in the recall battle.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINT EASTWOOD, ACTOR: I'm friends with Arnold. It's a big dilemma. Dena (ph) and I have both sort of stayed out of it. We don't know too much about it, any more than the guy and gal on the street.

PAULA ZAHN, CNN HOST: Do you miss being there?

EASTWOOD: No, not at all. When this whole recall thing started, people started saying, hey, Clint, why don't you get in? You know, I'll get the guys across the street working on the building. Hey, Clint, run for, you know, governor. And I said no chance, fellows. You're going to have to let somebody else have that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: You can see the full exclusive interview with Clint Eastwood later on "PAULA ZAHN NOW." That's at 8:00 Eastern, 5:00 Pacific.

Along this day before the recall, Gray Davis may be asking himself how he got where he is today. Bill Schneider will have some thoughts on that.

Plus, the Bush White House faces a turning point of its own tomorrow. We'll get plugged in on the leak investigation in this special edition of INSIDE POLITICS.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRISTOPHER SPROUL (D), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Christopher Sproul, an environmental attorney in California and doing public interest law on behalf of the people of this state, trying to protect the clean air and clean water. I joined the race originally to satirize the recall, which I saw as a ridiculous process. The standard for removing the governor should be something similar to the standard for removing the president. That should be reserved for high crimes and misdemeanors.

So, I have to confess, it’s a rather unique political strategy running for office, urging people not to elect me. But I'm actually undecided myself who I'm going to vote for on the second part of the ballot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Can't wait for INSIDE POLITICS? Get your early morning fix by clicking onto our new daily political column, "The Morning Grind." It's got a quick digest of candidates' schedules, an overview of what to expect today, and links to the day's hottest political stories. Everything you'll need to tide you over until 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Check it out at www.cnn.com/allpolitics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: The California recall countdown. One more day and lots of ground to cover. Will Gray Davis overcome public anger and keep his job?

DAVIS: And I think they'll decide this recall is not in their best interests.

ANNOUNCER: Will Arnold Schwarzenegger overcome a last-minute slew of allegations and take over the governor's office?

SCHWARZENEGGER: We are here, ladies and gentlemen, to clean house!

ANNOUNCER: Davis and Schwarzenegger bill the recall as a two-man race, but candidate Tom McClintock is refusing to be counted out.

TOM MCCLINTOCK (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: And I will support and defend.

ANNOUNCER: How did California get from there to here? We'll look at the clues voters left behind in elections past.

Now, live from Los Angeles, a special edition of JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Well, hello again from California, where the final day of campaigning before tomorrow's recall vote is a study in contrast, much like the two leading figures in the race. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been working a crowd in San Jose and exuding star power in his push to become the state's next governor. Instead of talking about the growing list of women who say they were groped by the actor, Schwarzenegger is urging voters to toss Gray Davis out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCHWARZENEGGER: Look what this administration has done in the last five years to us. They've run the economy down. Our economy's spiraling down, down, down. And we are losing jobs. They're chasing jobs and businesses out of the state and now it is time that we chase Gray Davis out of Sacramento.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WOODRUFF: Well as is often his way, Governor Davis was pretty low key a bit earlier today during a youth rally Sacramento. He talked more about education than about Schwarzenegger. But he did work to get out his vote.

Well our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley has been covering both the Davis and the Schwarzenegger campaigns. Candy, you spent the last few days with Davis. How are you they dealing with where things stand? What do they think right now's going to happen?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well they think they're in a much better position than they used to be. I mean that's very clear from what they're saying and it's clear that you can feel the tone of the campaign and their they're a lot more upbeat.

And they are clearly using the Schwarzenegger information. I mean this is a group that started out not because the Republicans were giving them trouble. But the fact is that Gray Davis' problem has always been with Democrats.

So what they needed to do was to figure out how to bring those Democrats home. So they started out with this is a right-wing power grab, this is like impeachment, this is like Florida. It didn't really move the polls that much. In fact, you know, the numbers kept getting worse for recall. Then they focused it down to, OK, do you really want Arnold?

And they thought people -- the Democrats would look and say, Oh my goodness. He's too inexperienced. Do you really want Arnold, or do you want me? And so they brought it down to that. And then by serendipity or something else, what happens is all these things come down on top of Arnold.

So in these past couple of days what the Davis campaign has tried to do is bring home the 27 percent of Democrats that say they want to recall Gray Davis. And they were quite obvious about it. I want to play you a cut here from a couple of days ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVIS: If the news events over the last couple of days have raised any doubts in your mind about the wisdom of electing Arnold Schwarzenegger, I say to you come home, vote no on the recall. No on the recall. No on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CROWLEY: So, basically, what you have here is what is standard in the last days of an election which is try to bring home your power base. Added onto it we have these sort of anti-Schwarzenegger stories. Gray Davis thinks that those two combined together may help him put pull out what would be a surprise.

WOODRUFF: You're one of the few reporters that's been with both campaigns, Candy. How do you contrast the two?

CROWLEY: Oh, wow! You know, look, they're both playing to their strengths, clearly. The Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign knows very well how to put on a production. He has some very schooled Republicans with him. He's also an actor. So you get wild and crazy kind of crowds. I mean, you know, big turnout and all of these places. And the bands and the buses and the this and the that.

And then you have Gray Davis. Gray Davis has never been accused of inspiring a lot of passion in the voters. So, you know, you see these -- he's in very small forms, women's events. He's in -- today he was at a school with a bunch of kids under 18 talking about education. Not your sort of classic end of campaign things that you have. So he plays to his strength. In addition it doesn't make you explain why there aren't a lot of people out for you if you do these little forums.

Yesterday it was very surreal where you saw the governor and a candidate cross paths, where you had the bill signing ceremony for Gray Davis. But before he got on stage, they had him come out and blast Schwarzenegger and they handed the people in the crowd for the bill signing the no recall signs. So they are combining this together. It's been interesting.

WOODRUFF: He's bee walking a fine line, but now I guess they're marching to tomorrow. OK, Candy, thanks very much. And she's going to be with Governor Davis again tonight at the rally in Los Angeles.

All right. Which camera is it? I'm guessing right here! On the eve of the recall vote, Governor Davis' career may be flashing before his eyes and at least it may be flashing to the days before his political problems mushroomed. Let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

All right, Bill, tell us. How did Davis get into the position that he is in today?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, we look back at the 2002 election when Davis was the incumbent governor running for reelection and we found a big surprise. Take a look at these figures. We asked people how they thought the economy was going and this is the percentage who were voting for Davis last year.

The people who thought the economy was in excellent shape, 14 percent for David. Good shape, 36. Not so good, 56. And those who said the economy was in poor shape voted 70 percent for Gray Davis. The worse you thought the economy was, the more likely you were to vote for Davis, the incumbent governor.

Now what is going to there? Each though Gray Davis was running for reelection, 2002, last year became a national referendum on President Bush who made himself the issue by campaigning all over the country that year. So voters were angry with Bush over the economy, voted against the Republicans and for the Democrats, and that included the incumbent Democratic Governor Gray Davis.

The bad economy, in other words, helped Gray Davis last year, but it's hurting him now because this year the recall is a referendum on Davis. And interestingly, President Bush has made himself very scarce in this recall campaign.

WOODRUFF: Bill, what about the voters who have basically left Gray Davis? People he might have counted on before, but he can't count on right now.

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well we found that in 2002 that voters began to abandon him even that year. Even though it was a referendum on Bush, Davis was not popular either. Both Bush and Davis had lost support. Look at Davis' vote among some critical groups. He carried men in 1998. In 2002, he had lost 12 points. Independents, he carried them in '98, 12 points lower in 2002. White voters, he split them in '98, but he was down to 38 percent support among white voters in 2002.

Now, these are his base voters. His base is clearly weakening. More than three-quarters of Latino voters voted if for Davis in 1998, that's down to now to fewer than two-third. Or rather it was down in 2002 to fewer than two-thirds.

Women he carried handsomely, easily with 60 percent in 1998. Last year he barely got a majority of the vote among women, which indicates that even as early as a year ago, when he did get reelected, his base was weakening and he had lost critical groups.

WOODRUFF: OK. Bill Schneider looking very closely at what's happened to Gray Davis over the past year. Thanks very much, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

WOODRUFF: Well Governor Davis is getting help from his friends in our recall election of our "Campaign News Daily." Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein is on the air with a new TV ad asking voters to vote no on the recall. Senator Feinstein doesn't mention Davis or Arnold Schwarzenegger by name, but she suggests that state voters gives what she calls serious consideration to the allegations against the man she refers to as the governor's opponent.

Three heavy hitters in the Democratic Party have recorded get out the vote phone calls on the governor's behalf. Democratic households around the state are receiving recorded messages from Bill Clinton, Al Gore and Barbra Streisand, all part of the Davis team's effort to energize the party base.

Well now to President Bush's political headaches. At the White House today he expressed confidence that the Justice Department can thoroughly investigate the leak of an undercover CIA agent's identity. And there is word of a new phase in the reconstruction effort in Iraq. Our senior White House correspondent John King is in Washington. John, where are you going to begin?

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Judy, I'll begin with the CIA leak investigation. I spoke to a government source not long ago who said this investigation is now, quote, "in a very active phase." The source would want confirm as of yet whether any White House officials have been interviewed or those interviewed scheduled, but said look for the pace to accelerate in the days ahead.

Now Mr. Bush spoke to this issue today. The president of Kenya is here for an official state visit. Mr. Bush has a news conference, he was questioned about the leak investigation. For the first time, Mr. Bush referred to it as a, quote, "criminal matter." He also says he expects his aides to fully cooperate and to turn documents over to the Justice Department in a timely manner.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: We will cooperate fully with the Justice Department. I've got all the confidence in the world the Justice Department will do a good, thorough job. And that's exactly what I want them to do is a good, thorough job. I'd like to know who leaked.

And if anybody's got any information inside our government or outside the government who leaked they ought to take it to the Justice Department so we can find out the leaker.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: A 5:00 deadline tomorrow, a little more than 24 hours away for 2,000 White House aides to go back through all their records, e- mails, phone logs, diaries and the like, turn over any relevant document to the Justice Department.

More than 200 had complied by early this morning. Most of them aides who said they had no records and simply signed certification to that effect. Judy, call around the White House today and many aides in addition to doing the official daily duties are taking care of that, going back through the e-mail looking to see if they have anything to turn over by tomorrow's deadline.

WOODRUFF: All right, John, let me turn you to Iraq. What's the strategy behind the White House now saying they're going to get more directly involved in the reconstruction of Iraq?

KING: The public line is rather matter of factly saying, of course, as the reconstruction effort goes on in Iraq and Afghanistan that the National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice would take a more active role, coordinating things throughout the agencies.

But privately, aides say there is no question, especially as 87 billion more dollars in U.S. money prepares to go into the pipeline, especially as the president's polling is down, criticism of the post- war efforts in Iraq is up, that Mr. Bush wants a more serious, more sustainable day-to-day White House role in decision-making.

So Condoleezza Rice now will take a much more accurate role. They are insisting here at the White House that Ambassador Bremer in Iraq will continue to report to Secretary Rumsfeld. But certainly the White House taking a higher profile in the decision-making -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right, John. Many of us had the impression the White House was already watching that very closely. This means they're watching it even more closely.

KING: There you go.

WOODRUFF: All right. John, thank you very much.

Well, also raising eyebrows in Washington, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. We'll have the "Inside Buzz" on why she may be getting under the skin of some '04 Democrats.

And our California recall countdown will continue with the man Arnold Schwarzenegger could not force out of the race. Tom McClintock will join us live.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGY RUSSELL (D), CALIF. GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Georgy Russell and I'm a software engineer ask I'm running for governor of California.

California has what is now a plutocracy, a government for the rich and I want to see California return to a democracy. I stand for abolition of the death penalty, passage of the gay marriage initiative and fiscal discipline in California.

My lack of experience, I believe is actually an asset and not a deficit. Our governor, who is being recalled, shows us that experienced politicians can't necessarily get the job done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: The debate over the rebuilding of Iraq is quickly becoming a major issue in the Democratic race for president.

With me now is our Congressional correspondent, Jonathan Karl.

And Jon, how did the -- the question of whether the president's going to get that $87 billion for Iraq make it into a candidate's ad already?

JONATHAN KARL, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, what's happening here is that candidate, John Edwards, is running the first ad criticizing the $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan because Edwards' strategist believed that this issue resonates more loudly with voters than even the whole controversy over the leaks and other things related to Iraq. They think this money for Iraq is an issue that really resonates with the voters, which is why they're running this ad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Eight-seven billion for Iraq with no plan in sight. Billion dollar giveaways for the president's oil industry friends like Halliburton. And no help from the allies he shut out. Is this our America? Well, I will not give this president a blank check. We should stop the inside deals and work with our allies in Iraq.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KARL: Now the response from Republicans from -- comes from RNC spokesman Jim Dyke, who says Edwards for months has been running ads about himself has not gained traction. So now, Dyke says, he's moving to the Howard Dean wing of the party.

But this ad is interesting for one reason especially, and that is because it puts Edwards in a position of voting against aid to the troops in Iraq.

Now Judy, as you know, Edwards has been -- and other candidates have been criticizing the reconstruction money for Iraq, saying that they want to give the money for the troops. But at the end of day, this will be an up or down vote on both $87 billion likely, including money for the troops.

WOODRUFF: Jon, separate development. We've learned that Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has agreed to emcee an event out in Iowa involving all of the '04 presidential hopefuls and how are the candidate reacting?

KARL: Well this is interesting. Publicly they have nothing, but good things to say about Senator Clinton. But privately in the words of one senior Democrat from Iowa, this has created a furor among the other Democratic candidates, some of whom are very concerned that Hillary Clinton will go to this major even in Iowa, the Jefferson Jackson Dinner -- it's a major road to the nomination -- and steal their thunder. All of the attention will go to Hillary Clinton, not to the other 10 Democrats who are actually running for president.

I am told that at least one candidate directly contacted the Iowa Democratic Party to express concerns about this and another spokesman for another party said -- another candidate said it makes her look petty like, she's trying to take all of the attention from the candidate. So Hillary Clinton will be welcomed very loudly at this event, but many of those other Democrats who are running for president are very concerned that she's stealing their thunder.

WOODRUFF: Stakes are high, I guess.

KARL: Yes.

WOODRUFF: John Karl at the Capitol reporting on this campaign, thank you very much. And we have one quick additional story we want to tell you about, and that is that the campaign of retired Army General Wesley Clark is announcing that the new candidate in the Democratic race has raised $3.5 million in the third quarter of this year. That is more than Clark's campaign. had indicated just a short while ago they were able to raise, so putting him on the map, you might say.

Well, Republican Tom McClintock back here in California makes good on his vow to stay in the race until the very end. He joins me next to talk about the recall, about his opponents and his expectations for Election Day.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: California State Senator Tom McClintock repeatedly vowed that he would not drop out of the recall race. And on the day before the vote, he is still a candidate, despite a lot of pressure from some fellow Republicans. But how much of a factor will he be at poll tomorrow?

Tom McClintock is with us now from Sacramento.

Tom McClintock, what do you really believe is going to happen tomorrow night?

MCCLINTOCK: Well, I think we have the makings for an upset. The same polls that have me in third place are also saying that the public by wide margins are saying that I would be the best candidate for the job, that I would do the best job, that I'm the best qualified, that I have the character and integrity they want to see by wide margins.

So my message to those folks is it's all right to vote your conscience. If everybody who's telling the pollsters they believe I'd do the best job actually votes for me on Election Day, we'll win.

WOODRUFF: There are some Davis polls, poll numbers that CNN has seen that indicate something like 28 percent of people who are supporting you, say they are going to vote no on the recall. How do you explain that?

MCCLINTOCK: Well, I -- I don't try to explain that. I don't understand that myself. I certainly urging a yes vote on the recall. I think getting rid for this corrupt and incompetent governor is the most important thing that this generation can do to begin to set things right.

WOODRUFF: You don't think those are people who could be concerned about Mr. Schwarzenegger?

MCCLINTOCK: That may reflect the concern about Mr. Schwarzenegger. But the message I've been trying to project is a positive one and that is that we do have an historic opportunity to roll back the taxes and regulations that are choking off our economy. This is the moment in time we can do that as a generation.

WOODRUFF: I want to ask you about these -- the allegations by these now 15 women who have come forward. Their stories have been told in "The Los Angeles Times."

Arnold Schwarzenegger said last night in an interview that he doesn't want to talk about the specifics now, that he will deal with those after the election. Are you satisfied with that?

MCCLINTOCK: No, I'm not. I think that he needs to come forth and forthrightly explain his response to these charges which are very serious.

I'm disturbed by two thing about the charges. One is the very serious nature, the conduct that is alleged is reprehensible. But I'm also disturbed about the fact that they've only been brought up in the last four or five days of the election. And I -- just as someone who's been involved in politics a long time, I am very skeptical and very cautious about attacks on a candidate's character coming so close to an election.

But I do think that...

WOODRUFF: So are you...

(CROSSTALK)

MCCLINTOCK: But I do I think there's a lot that Arnold Schwarzenegger could do simply by stepping forward and helping the public sort out what's fact and what's not.

WOODRUFF: Do you think that there should in any way be an investigation here?

MCCLINTOCK: Well unfortunately, there's no time for an investigation. The election is tomorrow and the people are going to have to sort through as best they can what are the facts and what are not. And again, I think that Arnold Schwarzenegger could help them a lot in that regard.

WOODRUFF: When you say you're suspicious because these charges have come up so late, "The Los Angeles Times" is saying they pursued these reports, talked to these women and they got this information out there as quickly as they could confirm it. Do you just not accept that?

MCCLINTOCK: I'm just very concerned that the allegations which go back a number of years have only come to light in the last four or five days of the election.

And again, I don't remember to minimize how serious they are. I have a 13-year-old daughter. Those charges hit home, if they're true. Certainly that is reprehensible behavior. But again, we don't know because there's not enough time to sort it out and again, I do believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger could help by telling us what is fact and what is not.

WOODRUFF: Tom McClintock, telling us that he's got hope for tomorrow night. Thank you very much.

MCCLINTOCK: Thanks for having me, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Senator McClintock, good to see you again. We appreciate it.

Thank you.

MCCLINTOCK: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: Well, it's a new day in Louisiana politics. Coming up, find out what is unique about the upcoming run-off for governor in that Deep South state.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: Well, among other things, diversity will be in the spotlight as Louisiana voters choose a new governor next month. An Indian-American will face the state's first female lieutenant governor in the November 15 run off.

Bobby Jindal captured 33 percent of the vote on Saturday to lead the way into the run-off. Jindal is a conservative Republican.

Kathleen Blanco came in second with 18 percent.

Now this is a first for Louisiana, where for generations, white males have dominated politics and have all been elected governor.

Well, that's it for this edition of INSIDE POLITICS. On Recall Election Day Tomorrow, join me for another 90-minute special from Los Angeles. Will there be voting problems that some have feared? We'll check in with the California secretary of state and have much more tomorrow. That's at 3 p.m. Eastern, noon Pacific.

Thanks for joining us. I'm Judy Woodruff.

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