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Inside Politics
Bitter Republican Civil War Goes Public; Clinton's Organization vs Sanders' Momentum. Aired 8:30-9a ET
Aired January 24, 2016 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN KING, CNN HOST: One week to Iowa and the Republican race goes rogue.
SARAH PALIN (R), FORMER VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This is going to be so much fun. Are you ready to make America great again?
KING: Sarah Palin helps puts Ted Cruz on defense.
CROWD: President Trump. President Trump.
KING: Will there be another Iowa surprise?
Plus, Hillary Clinton bets on organization and her resume.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In theory is it enough? A president has to deliver in reality.
KING: Get this, Bernie Sanders' rebuttal.
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The change had a hell of a lot of experience.
INSIDE POLITICS -- the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King. We're live today from Smokey Rowe Coffee in Des Moines. Thanks for sharing your Sunday morning.
Iowa casts the first official votes in the 2016 campaign one week from tomorrow. Three big questions in the final sprint to caucus night. Can Donald Trump turn giant rally crowds into a big turn out of new voters?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've got to caucus. All right. We've got to caucus. Because if you don't -- if you don't, it's not going to happen. We're not going to get there. We want to get there, not only get there, we want to get there with a mandate --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Another big question, can Ted Cruz withstand withering attacks and win here the old fashioned way with an army of evangelical conservatives?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But he doesn't get to pretend it's not amnesty when he's taking 12 million people here illegally into 12 million U.S. citizens.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: And there's this question on the Democratic side. Will Iowa, again, humble Hillary Clinton?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I care about making a real difference in your life. And that gets us to the choice that you have to make in this caucus.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Two tight, fascinating races heading into the final week.
With us to share their reporting and their insights: Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin both of the "New York Times"; and Jennifer Jacobs, the chief political correspondent for the "Des Moines Register".
We have been watching this play out. The Republican's first. This has been a wild week and it began with this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PALIN: He's from the private sector. Not a politician. Can I get a hallelujah?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: I won't ask for a hallelujah. Not this morning.
JONATHAN MARTIN, "NEW YORK TIMES": Amen.
KING: But Sarah Palin -- Amen, that's good -- Sarah Palin is not the only one choosing sides. We've had this remarkable fight play out this week where you have the conservative intellectuals saying, you know, Donald Trump is a fraud. You cannot be for Donald Trump. And you have the Republican establishment saying we still despise Ted Cruz that if we have to we'll accept Donald Trump.
And Jennifer -- we so this play out yesterday where Chuck Grassley the iconic veteran Republican Senator shows up at a Donald Trump event. Now he said he's not endorsing anyone but he shows up, he speaks, he stands behind the podium with the Trump brand on then Trump calls him out. It's a clear signal. But Chuck Grassley -- I may not be endorsing this guy but if you vote for him, fine. JENNIFER JACOBS, "DES MOINES REGISTER": It was. I mean he
legitimately did. His scheduler sent out e-mails to all of the campaigns on Thursday saying listen, "I'm neutral. I'm here for you if you ask. We will come and speak at your event.
However, he could have gone to a Rubio event yesterday. Marco Rubio was in Iowa right down the street. Instead Chuck Grassley chose to go to a Trump event and that it leaves an indelible impression.
KING: A huge impression that it's ok. And so Ted Cruz brings in someone from the outside -- Glenn Beck. And there you see the split. And it is remarkable to see. This is rock 'em sock 'em robots but three weeks ago Ted Cruz and Donald Trump were, faux friends.
MAGGIE HABERMAN, "NEW YORK TIMES": They were very close. Donald Trump was terrific, according to Ted Cruz. It has gotten very nasty. You've seen Donald Trump go very aggressively at Ted Cruz questioning whether he was eligible to serve as president. A lot of people who actually support Donald Trump were privately questioning whether that was a smart idea.
It definitely seems to have eroded some of the support for Ted Cruz which is why you're seeing Ted Cruz come back so hard. You're seeing, as you said, these competing theories of the case. You are seeing sort of a renting of Donald Trump from some members of the establishment who find him preferable to Ted Cruz. I don't know whether that will translate here based on the type of race that Ted Cruz is trying to win.
KING: It's vicious on television. And Jonathan, it's increasingly vicious on the campaign stage as the candidates speak. Trump did -- we were both at an event yesterday in Pella. Trump did not say this here but in Sioux Center early in the day one of the questions in this campaign is can Donald Trump say anything and get away with it? He said this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The polls -- they say I have the most loyal people. Did you ever see that? Where I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and would not lose any voters -- ok. It's like, incredible.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Not only does he say it but he holds up his fingers and makes a gun. I guess this is how you view Donald Trump. Is that like a blustery joke from a New Yorker or is that over the line?
[08:35:01] MARTIN: It's not helpful here in Iowa, I don't think, to say that. Because if you are a voter who's trying to figure out who you're going to support and Trump's on your list what you're concerned is that I'm not sure I want him behind that big desk. That's the kind of thing that might give you pause.
But that said, it's a testament to the fact that he's now running to win. He did say the line later in the day. John -- you and I saw him at a second event that he didn't repeat it. I was struck by that which tells me that he's trying to be more careful now. He gives off this impression of I'll say anything. But he can actually be more measured.
KING: Maybe he's listening. Maybe somebody said Mr. Trump dial it back.
HABERMAN: And he will do that sometimes. He will say something and then he will try to course correct later on.
MARTIN: It's striking though to hear somebody who has broken the rules on American politics and has said stuff rhetorically, at least, that would get any other candidate in deep trouble. And frankly had offended millions of people in terms of banning Muslims from all over the world from coming to America. It's an extraordinary statement he made.
You have got a senior senator standing next to you on stage having made those kind of comments speak to just how much the establishment is trying to rationalize how this could be ok.
KING: If they can't stop it. One of the things Donald Trump does repeats at every event now. At every event now -- Donald Trump questions whether Ted Cruz is eligible to be president. He did it in Sioux Center yesterday and he did it again in Pella.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Ted has a lot of problems. Number one -- Canada. He could run for the prime minister of Canada and I wouldn't even complain because he was born in Canada.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: The interesting thing about this it's not just Trump. There are a whole bunch of other candidates here. You have two past Iowa winners Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee who are struggling because Ted Cruz has taken most of their evangelical support.
But I went up to Winnebago County the other day to see Governor Huckabee. My big question there is how much can he get because whatever he gets most likely comes out of Cruz. And we're looking at the margins here. And so I asked Governor Huckabee, him what do you tell an evangelical voter when you see them and they say Governor, I was with you in 2008 but this time I'm for Ted Cruz. He sounds a lot a like Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I just remind them that the one thing they don't have to worry about is, you know, my birthplace is Hope, Arkansas. The one thing we're sure of we've established that a person can be elected president from Hope, Arkansas.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: He says that with a smile, Jennifer. But I guess that is -- but the question is, you know, does Santorum, Huckabee, Ben Carson -- if you add that up and that's double digits on caucus, just how much does that pull Ted Cruz down?
JACOBS: Right and actually we asked our Iowa poll respondents who had voted for Santorum in 2012 and a majority of them -- a plurality of them are for Ted Cruz. He also has all those Romney voters. We asked those -- the people who had voted for Romney last cycle, a plurality are for Ted Cruz.
So Ted Cruz has all these arrows coming at him, like you say from two different caucus winners. He's got the ethanol lobby coming down hard on him. He's got the Trump phenomenon. And he's got -- you know, Sarah Palin coming into town. He's got, you know, Chuck Grassley, Terry Branstad -- everybody is coming down on his head.
So if he can still win Iowa despite all this factors, what does that say about Ted Cruz?
HABERMAN: That's the thing. The trend line in polls has not been great for Cruz, especially since Trump started doing this birther attack. But he will now be able to say because of that he can treat a win as if it's a massive come back and then just roll into the south after that. I don't expect him to do great in New Hampshire --
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: I was driving last night from Pella to a Rubio event last night. And I got a phone call from a Cruz person and the spin basically was if we survive this onslaught it's going to be the best comeback in the annals of American politics -- you know.
HABERMAN: We're the underdog.
MARTIN: And to Maggie's point, at the start of the month a two-point win for Cruz would have been pretty good. A two-point win for Cruz now is going to look much better given everything that has come out from the establishment and the conservatives.
JACOBS: Trump has got $800,000 worth of of negative ads running against Cruz right now. And if Cruz can overcome that --
HABERMAN: It's a devastating negative ad.
MARTIN: Huckabee and Santorum are doing seven or eight stops a day here so not much support but they are effectively Trump surrogates now. They want to stop Ted.
KING: One of the things Cruz has in his favor is this network of evangelical pastors. That's how Huckabee won. That's how Santorum won. This is put out by those pastors saying it's our sacred duty.
What I'm watching for closely today is how political are these pastors for Cruz in the pulpit today because they are furious that Donald Trump is getting so much evangelical support. And they want to shift that.
I want you to listen. This is Pastor Joseph Brown. He's helping Ted Cruz organize. They wanted to get 99 pastors. They now say they are closer to 200. They had a conference call this week essentially saying about how far can you go? How political can you get from the pulpit?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PASTOR JOSEPH BROWN, TED CRUZ SUPPORTER: Donald Trump is a wolf in sheep's clothing. And evangelicals know what that means. He has stood for everything that we have been against.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Wolf in sheep's clothing. Evangelical voters do know what he's saying. The question is can he do -- that's the old fashioned way here in Iowa. That is how Huckabee won. That is how Santorum won. And that is Cruz's underlying strength -- right. Despite all these attacks these tend to be the most loyal people here in Iowa. And in the last two caucuses in the Republican side about 60 percent of the voters say they're white evangelicals.
[084002] JACOBS: And the pastors have a multipronged attack. You know, they're saying he's unrealistic. You can't believe the things he's promising. They're saying he's unpredictable. Who knows if he shifts back to that old progressive self that he used to be. They're saying he's power hungry and that's Rand Paul's argument, too that he's like Golem -- he just wants to possess the ring of power.
So they've got a bunch of different arguments -- big spender. There's an anti-Trump Super PAC that's advertising here saying that, you know, he just wants to give everyone universal health care and he would break the bank. They're coming at him from a bunch of different angles.
MARTIN: But he's not running as a purist conservative.
HABERMAN: No. Exactly.
MARTIN: We were talking about that yesterday watching him in Pella, Iowa. He's actually -- all his inflammation commentary he's running as a pragmatist. He wants to basically say I can get stuff done in Washington. And by the way, that's a very powerful message for folks who are very angry now at this stage.
KING: And he says he loves the evangelicals but he doesn't spend much time on their issues whether it's marriage or life --
MARTIN: Not at all.
HABERMAN: No
KING: -- or those issues at all. But it will be interesting to see -- he does still have a couple of prominent evangelicals traveling with him today. He had a prominent social conservative yesterday at one of his events. He's trying to cut into the margins, take some of that vote away from Cruz, the votes on caucus night.
Sit tight everybody. Jennifer Jacobs will be leaving us. Thanks for being here. Jeff Zeleny will jump in next.
Next stop though -- Hillary Clinton has a much deeper Iowa organization this time around yet might still feel the Bern.
First though -- politicians say the darnedest things, celebrates two big returns. Watch, see if you notice the different to the campaign stage.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PALIN: He's going rouge left and right. That's why he's doing so well. Look at the stars (inaudible) and then they tell us just chill. We're not going to chill. In fact, it's time to drill, baby, drill.
Whether you're a mom or two broke girls or three men and a baby, or a rock and roller, holy roller, pushing stroller, pro bowler with an abscess molar --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:45:09] KING: Welcome back.
One thing that is obvious this cycle in Iowa is that Team Clinton is trying to learn the lesson of 2008. Its organization is deeper and sharper. It includes a mix of former Obama backers who helped defeat Clinton eight years ago plus long time Clinton loyalists like this gentleman, Norm Bauer, who worked for her eight years ago Clinton and who remembers, he doesn't like this memory, walking into his caucus site.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NORM BAUER, CLINTON SUPPORTER: It was overwhelming. You walked in to the caucus site and the whole wall of the gym was full of Obama supporters. And you just thought, wow, this is really going to happen and not for Hillary.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Yes, this time Clinton is better organized but the energy around the Bernie Sanders campaign is very, very real. And the sharper attacks are proof the Vermont senator is playing to win here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANDERS: Without naming any names, Goldman Sachs also provides very, very generous speaking fees to some unnamed candidates -- very generous.
On the crucial foreign policy issue of our time, it turns out that Secretary Clinton with all of her experience was wrong and I was right. Experience is important. Dick Cheney had a lot of experience. A whole lot of people have experience but not necessarily have the right judgment.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: CNN's Jeff Zeleny joins the conversation. We were laughing a bit.
HABERMAN: -- kind of attack. It sounds Trumpian.
KING: I'm not saying this -- I like her but --
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: It sounds like a battle.
KING: In a Democratic primary comparing somebody to Dick Cheney, you might as well compare him to Satan.
MARTIN: Oh my God.
HABERMAN: Barack Obama actually did a very similar thing in 2008. Or his people did. But a lot of these attacks on both sides from Clinton and from Sanders are sounding very, very familiar. Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama but some of these lines are to a T the exact same --
MARTIN: And her response is similar.
HABERMAN: Exactly.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And in fact Bernie Sanders called it out yesterday in Clinton, Iowa -- of all places -- on the Mississippi River on the eastern side of Iowa. He said don't let her and her people tell you that this can happen. You remember what happened eight years ago and the people in that crowd -- he drew a crowd of about twice as big as her -- a younger crowd.
The key question here is, are they going to turn out to caucus or not? Can social media, can Facebook and other things that drive his rallies drive people to those caucus sites? There's no reason to believe it can't but it hasn't been done before.
KING: You make a key point about the geography. And if you're at home and you want to study the Iowa caucuses go to cnnpolitics.com, the "New York Times" Web site also has a great map. Go back and look at 2008 and 2012 and look at the map -- who won where because in that eastern part of the state Hillary Clinton tended to win here in the central part of the state. Obama ran close to her but she won. But in the eastern part of the state, the more liberal part of the state, Obama ran it up in Davenport, ran it up in Clinton, ran it up in the Cedar Rapids area.
On the Republican side same kind of thing. That's where Romney got his vote and the evangelical smaller counties. Out in that that part of the state I spent some time out there trying to get a sense of the Clinton organization. They say they've got it this time. But you feel the energy. And crowd size don't tell you anything or don't tell you everything, anyway.
But you do feel the energy right now. People on the ground seem to think it's with Sanders.
ZELENY: No doubt about it. The energy is with Sanders. Even some Clinton supporters know it's with Sanders. The question is will they all turn out or not? Is this going to be 2004 when about 130,000 or so Democrats came out? Or is this going to closer to 2008 where there were about 230,000?
If there are long lines of new people signing up to vote on caucus night, the Clinton campaign knows it is in trouble. If, you know, her ceiling is sort of what it is here. But, you know, she's closing strong as well and making the argument that experience matters.
And Iowa Democratic voters are practical, I think, in some respects. It just depends how many new people he brings into this process.
KING: I think both for Trump and for Bernie Sanders. The number of new caucus goers who show up that night is crucial. But you mentioned, you know, the parallels to 2008 are quite striking. And it didn't work in 2008 when she did the experience. I know my way around the White House; I don't need a tour; the 3:00 a.m. phone call ad and all that.
But is it just her DNA or do they think somehow because Sanders is an older candidate it works better?
HABERMAN: I think they think that Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama -- among other things. So I think the people are not looking necessarily for the same -- and there's a couple of factors. I think they still feel like she has some good residue left over from when she left the State Department when her image was very much rehab. It's taken a big dent in the e-mail scandal.
But it's gotten better. I think that this is who she is. I think for better or worse Hillary Clinton this time around is running the campaign she wanted to run. She has barely dealt with the press corps. She started doing a lot of TV interviews. She hasn't done a single national newspaper interview this entire year. That's pretty astonishing.
And it's very heavy on policy. A lot of it is sort of smaller-bore policy. That is who she is. So you can't really be different than who you are. That didn't work last time either.
MARTIN: And she's done -- I was talking to one of her supporters recently who said she's done everything right. Policy roll-out, all the endorsements, no major gaffes -- obviously the e-mail story has been a challenge for her. But in terms of her campaign performance she's worked hard and done fine.
[08:50:04] It's just that people in the Democratic primary want somebody who is a much more emphatic base for change.
ZELENY: The energy of the party is on the left. HABERMAN: That's right.
KING: And a change. I think voters in both party want change. And for all her strengths, Hillary Clinton does not say change.
HABERMAN: It's not reality -- that's right.
KING: And the interesting --
MARTIN: And we're in Iowa, by the way.
HABERMAN: That's right.
KING: One of the interesting dynamics playing out for Democrats, you've got a lot of national union people for Hillary Clinton -- some of the state and local people are more for Bernie Sanders. She understands this.
And so interestingly yesterday she did an event when you were in the eastern part of the state with some union workers. She says she looked them right in the eye and say you wanted the difference between me and Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders will raise your taxes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I'm the only candidate in this race -- on either side, who has pledged I will raise your incomes but I will not raise your taxes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MARTIN: It's remarkable to hear that in a Democratic primary.
HABERMAN: Democratic primary -- I know. Yes.
KING: He's too liberal.
MARTIN: That's right.
(CROSSTALK)
HABERMAN: Absolutely.
ZELENY: Never mind if he's leading her in the polls or not. Watch what she was doing this week. And boy, I was in Indianola on Thursday. Her teleprompter was out and she was hitting him -- boom, boom, boom -- we're likely to see that in an ad this week.
It works on taxes I think. I think that's the good message. But Iowa Democrats are true believers. These are the core activists. They want someone who supports these beliefs. They don't believe that is the final vote. They believe this is the first vote. They would like to see this race go on for a long time.
HABERMAN: And to Jeff's point, also I mean this is where I think one of the attacks aides did in the last couple of weeks that gave a bit of a sense that they were flailing was the health care attack that she did on Bernie Sanders. Most voters realistically do not believe that he's not really genuinely interested in trying to provide universal health care. And so ill it did was remind people of that and did sound like an attack from the right.
KING: Remind people that she might be a little nervous. Perhaps.
HABERMAN: Right.
KING: Everybody sit tight. Our reporters empty their notebooks next, including a new wrinkle on the Trump effect on this wild campaign.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: Let's ask our great reporters here a quick nugget from their notebooks to help get you out ahead of the big political news just around the corner.
Maggie Haberman.
HABERMAN: I mentioned before that Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. That is something that you're going to hear the Clinton people telling their supporters maybe a little more overtly than at other times over the course of the next week.
They believe they have a South Carolina fire wall which is largely comprised of older African-American voters. The key here is that after Obama won Iowa -- that was when a lot of the black vote in South Carolina shifted to him.
Bernie Sanders is not the same kind of candidate where people are looking for a signal they believe where he can win and that is their message.
KING: We'll see how that one -- in South Carolina
HABERMAN: We'll see.
KING: Important to Bill Clinton back in the years, Hillary Clinton.
HABERMAN: All time.
KING: Jonathan?
MARTIN: John turn out four years ago in the GOP (inaudible) was about 120,000 people. You talk to the Cruz folks they think it will be higher than that. It's about 135,000 to 140,000 that Cruz will probably win. If it gets higher than 150,000 toward 160,000 or 170,000 that's probably the danger zone for the Cruz folks and that's where Trump looks more likely to be the winner.
You and I were with Trump yesterday talking to folks in the long line that was snaking down in the sidewalk in Pella, Iowa. You found a lot of folks who were very passionate about Trump. But they weren't quite sure about caucusing or they weren't totally positive about where their place was to caucus. We're going to know on Caucus whether or not Trump or Cruz has won, I think, by looking at the number of turn out. I think that's going to be so crucial to this election because the Trump voters are new voters.
KING: And the Trump people trying to get them the registration forms are in the those lines. The question is do they keep them, do they fill them out, do they show up on caucus night and turn them in?
That's a great point -- how many people turn out to vote and what percentage of them are new voters. We'll watch that on caucus night.
Jeff.
ZELENY: The Trump effect also spills over into the other side. One thing I was struck by traveling across the state this week talking to Democrats is that, you know, for all the disruption that's going on, on the Republican side, some of that is spilling over on to their side.
If they think that the regular order has been shaken up, why do they have to fall in line? Why do these Democrats have to support the establishment candidates? So there's at lot of sort of belief on the Democratic side -- you know what, let's go with Bernie Sanders. What the hell.
It was fascinating. I was not expecting so many people to say that. The question is, are those people going to turn out on caucus night? A top Clinton supporter here told me there are enough Sanders people to beat her. The question is, can they find them all? Do they know where to go? That's the key part of mobilization this final here in Iowa.
KING: Key part of mobilization. Another big key event this final week we haven't mentioned during the show. A big Democratic town hall right night here on CNN tomorrow night. The Democratic candidates making their cases as we head into the final week.
Let me close with this from my notebook. Iowa's traditional role is to winnow the field. We will no doubt lose candidates after next Monday's vote.
Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are both past Iowa winners. It's hard to see them pressing on if they can't climb out of the bottom of the pack here. Ben Carson is another question mark. Rand Paul is a huge question. His team promises a surprise on caucus night. And it predicts it will get a big boost from the fact that colleges are in session here this year at caucus time. That hasn't happened the last two cycles and Ron Paul who has been largely absent from his son's campaign but ran a strong third here four years ago is coming in this weekend to try to energize his past supporters and give his son Rand's candicacy a boost.
Now again, Team Paul promises it will be this cycle's Iowa surprise. But if it fails to deliver, pressure will mount for the Kentucky senator to pack it in because his senate seat is also on the ballot this year.
That's it for INSIDE POLITICS. Thanks for sharing your Sunday morning. We also want to thank people here at Smokey Joe's for their wonderful hospitality -- Smokey Rowe -- I'm sorry. Hospitality and the coffee is awesome. Come have some. Come join us.
We'll see you soon.
"STATE OF THE UNION" with Jake Tapper starts right now.
