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McConnell Optimistic about Midterms; Trump Struggles with Women; No Plans to Fire Rosenstein. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired October 08, 2018 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00] JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Kate.

And welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King. Thank you for sharing your day with us.

The president and his deputy attorney general, who oversees the special counsel investigation, are chatting today on Air Force One. We know the boss is mad at Rod Rosenstein, but he says they get along just fine.

Plus, the audacity of Mitch. The Senate's top Republican blocked a Democratic Supreme Court pick back in 2016, but won't rule out pushing for an election year confirmation if President Trump somehow got another vacancy in 2020.

And as Brett Kavanaugh prepares for his first day on the Supreme Court, the debate over the political fallout intensifies. Democrats predict a boost in House races where suburban women pack extra influence. Red state Senate races are where Republicans see what they like to call now the Brett bounce.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And I think you're going to see a lot of things happen on November 6th that would not have happened before. The American public has seen this charade. It was all made up. It was fabricated. And it's a disgrace. And I think it's going to really show you something come November 6th.

I think a lot of Democrats are going to vote Republican.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: We begin there and here with the political fallout of the Kavanaugh confirmation battle. And with new data framing the big midterm test, now, get this, just 29 days away. For Democrats, a poll with plenty to like. Some new and encouraging numbers in "The Washington Post" today about their standing in America's most contested House districts. That's this map. The question, how big is the potential blue wave? The data suggests in possibility, especially up here in the northeast, a lot of suburban districts, we'll look at those numbers in just a moment.

A giant question today, though, is when you come to this side of the equation, the Senate balance of power here. Will the Supreme Court fight help Republicans out in these red states. Will it help motivate conservatives all the way through November?

Here's where we have it right now, 49 Republicans, 45 Democrats. That's safe, likely and leans, right? The Republicans think because of the Supreme Court, they think they'll keep North Dakota. We lean it there right now. Republicans are very confident that they think -- again, Republican projections, Mike Braun will defeat the Democratic incumbent in Indiana. They think in part because of a Brett bounce. Republicans even saying they're more confident -- it's the projection at this point -- that Claire McCaskill will lose her seat to the Republican challenger, Josh Hawley. Again, they think there's a Brett bounce.

Now, they think it plays in other states as well. But if you just look at those ones, keep North Dakota, which leans their way, would be a Democratic flip, Indiana and Missouri. If that happened, that would get Republicans to 51, meaning they would keep their majority even if they lost a seat in Tennessee, lost a seat in Nevada or lost a seat in Arizona. No guarantee, but Republicans do see some evidence of what they call a Brett bounce.

The man who hopes it works, not only here, but also in these other races, the majority leader, Mitch McConnell, speaking just a short time ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), MAJORITY LEADER: What I think this has done for us is provide the kind of adrenaline shot that we had not been able to figure out how to achieve in any other way. So we see that movement. This is going to be very helpful to us next month.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: That's what the majority leader said today.

With me in studio to share their reporting and their insights, Julie Hirschfeld Davis of "The New York Times," CNN's Phil Mattingly, FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon, and Rachael Bade with "Politico."

That's what the leader says today. Four weeks is a very long time. Democrats think, again, with suburban women, this is a huge boost.

But to -- let's start with the Senate and Leader McConnell there. He thinks North Dakota is ours. He thinks maybe Missouri now, Claire McCaskill, Josh Hawley, a very tough race. Do they have proof of that or do they just anecdotally believe that?

PERRY BACON, SENIOR WRITER, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: Right now I'd say that they just believe that. I think before Kavanaugh, the Republicans were favored to win the Senate and lose the House. I think that's still, if you look at the broad (INAUDIBLE) of data, it's still true.

I do think there was a poll last week and it showed Heitkamp way down. That's why they feel confident. That may have been related to Kavanaugh. There may be small evidence of -- I think right now if you're -- if you're in Tennessee, you're in Missouri, it's easier to say you voted -- you were opposed to -- you voted for Kavanaugh than say you voted against him. I think that's the numbers in those states probably are more pro than anti-Kavanaugh.

But I don't think -- we're also a month out -- but I don't think the broader narrative of this election has changed that much over the last two weeks.

KING: And the president this morning speaking as he left. The president -- he's going in give a speak to law enforcement in Florida today -- said this was a hoax. Said this was a fabrication. So if you're a Republican, does that make you nervous? You see this conservative energy right now, but you don't want the president to antagonize these suburban women, who already -- the Republicans already had a huge ditch (ph) there. Just -- let's listen a little bit more to the president.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I thought the way they behaved was absolutely atrocious. I have never seen anything like it. I think of course the way they really tortured him and his family, I thought it was a disgrace.

Now they're thinking about impeaching a brilliant jurist, a man that did nothing wrong. A man that was caught up in a hoax that was set up by the Democrats using the Democrats' lawyers and now they want to impeach him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[12:05:08] KING: What's the balancing act there? Talking about impeachment, rallying to Kavanaugh. You might excite conservatives, but are you also going to anger those suburban women?

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Well, clearly. I mean it's a double-edged sword, right? And I think while we may not have the actual evidence in some of these individual races yet, there's no question that Republican officials have been buoyed by the fact that they are seeing in more sort of generic looks at the electorate and the voting -- the registered voters that the intensity has gone up among Republicans. That's what Mitch McConnell was alluding to. You know, they needed a shot in the arm to get their base out to keep the Senate and I think they're more confident now that they will have that.

But there's also no question that it is -- you know, there is a counter balance, and that is that if you are talking to these suburban women, even if you're just talking to independents of any kind who have been watching this debate play out, there may be something to the fact that they were sort of put off by the debate and the tone of the debate over Kavanaugh. But if all of a sudden you're lumping all sexual assault survivors, Democrats who posed, you know, really relevant questions to a Supreme Court nominee about his past behavior as a mob perpetrating a hoax, you're going to turn a lot of people off. And those are the people that you need in addition to the base in order to keep Republicans in control of the House.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. I think everybody's kind of made this point, but they are two different maps that are diametrically opposed in terms of the dynamics right now. And I do think that when you talk to Republicans -- a kind of nefarious part -- but when you talk to Republicans who have been in the field over the course of the last week and a half, they're seeing something. There's no question about it. Whether it's enthusiasm, whether it's in their tracking polls, they're seeing movement.

I think my one big caveat at this point in time is, the last two weeks have felt like 2.5 years. Four weeks is a long time. We'll see if it sticks. But, because of how the maps look, if you're a Senate campaign strategist on the Republican side of things, you're happy that there's something that you can point to for the first time.

And I will also note that on the Senate side, and you see it on the House side in the inverse, if you're nationalizing races in the states where Senate Democrats are trying to hold on to their seats, that's good for the Republican who's challenging the incumbent. It's the inverse on the House side, but that's the dynamic they're looking at right now and that's a dynamic they are happy to have. Let's make this about the national issues. Let's make this about what President Trump is saying. Let's not make this about the work you did on opioids. Let's not make this the work you did on the defense bill that the president signed, those types of issues.

KING: Right, and Democrats are trying to make it about, let's make it for -- against Republican incumbents, let's make it about the work you didn't do on the replace part of Obamacare.

MATTINGLY: Exactly.

KING: Go ahead.

RACHAEL BADE, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, "POLITICO": Yes, I think that Republicans, they're expressing confidence because they are seeing a bump right now. But four weeks ago we were talking about Paul Manafort, you know, being indicted. And like that's -- it's a lifetime in politics.

But I think that they are also showing signs that they know that four weeks from now is a long time and maybe they won't have the energy because they are talking about impeachment of Kavanaugh and they think that that would turn out their base.

Don Junior was tweeting just after Kavanaugh got confirmed, if Democrats take the House, they're going to try to come for him. That shows that they know anger can be a huge motivator for these Democratic women who are upset and that they need to put something on the line in terms of the threat to bring their base out to actually show up and vote Republican.

KING: Right. A critical point. Midterm elections tend to be which base, because there are base elections in a midterm, not a presidential year, which base is most angry. And if Republicans were very angry last week, will that dissipated because they got their guy? Brett Kavanaugh starts his job as a Supreme Court justice tomorrow. It's a key point there.

Let's look at the House races in this "Washington Post" poll done with Shar (ph) the Shar School. It shows 65 competitive congressional districts they looked at, 2016, these districts went 15 points for Republicans, 56 percent to 41 percent across these districts. Now, if you look, the Democrats have a narrow lead, 50 percent to 46. So, if you're Democrats, you say, wow, not only are we competitive, we're ahead in areas that were overwhelmingly Republican just two years ago.

If you're Republicans you say, oh, you're ahead, but that's four points. That comes down to the intensity in the turnout issue, right?

BACON: Those are conservative districts, though, in general.

KING: Right.

BACON: So I do think if you're seeing that in a conservative district, in a more divided district, if Democrats are going to win the House by winning probably districts that are like in the five-point range and winning a sweep of those, winning a few that are 10 points and so on, that's a great poll for Democrats in the House. Like Phil kept saying, though, the House so different than the Senate. Almost two different elections going on.

MATTINGLY: It also --

KING: Yes, you look at the poll -- forgive me for interrupting --

MATTINGLY: Yes.

KING: IT's 23 net. The Democrats need to pick up 23 seats. You look at a poll like that across 60 plus competitive but Republican-leaning districts and the Democrats are running, hey, you think -- there's your -- if there's 20 -- there's at least 23. There should be 30 in there for the Democrats if they do this right.

MATTINGLY: Right. And a poll like that also brings up something that I've been waiting to see. I mean we've seen it in one or two races. But at some point people are going to have to cut money off to candidates, right?

KING: Right.

BACON: It's happening.

MATTINGLY: You've seen it in a couple of races. I think one in Iowa. Maybe one in Virginia at this point. At some point the NRCC and the outside groups are going to start pulling their money, pulling their buys and moving their money elsewhere.

KING: Right.

MATTINGLY: And if you're looking at races that are plus five, plus six, plus 10 Republican and now you're a little bit concerned about that, you're cutting loose people that you feel like are completely dead. And at some point that's going to have to start happening and it will be really interesting not only when it starts happening, but where are the dynamics and the makeup of the districts that they start doing it in because that will go a long way to telling you what they're actually looking at as opposed to what they're conveying.

KING: Right. And here's one of the key indicators of that, and you see this just across the bridge here in northern Virginia, you see this in other -- especially in these northeastern states and you see it in the Hillary Clinton districts, if you will. If you're a Republican House incumbent in a district won by Hillary Clinton, your money is probably starting to disappear and be going to other places because here's one of the dynamics from this "Washington Post" poll among white college educated women in battleground House districts. White college educated women, 62 percent say they're going to vote Democrat, 35 percent Republican. That number holds up. There's more than 23 seats for the Republicans in that if it holds up. For the Democrats, excuse me.

[12:10:30] BADE: The GOP leadership has said countless times privately that that is the key constituency they need to keep their majority. They know that if they lose white women in these swing districts, then they're in big trouble and they're going to lose their majority.

But, look, I think that Republicans, before the Kavanaugh confirmation fight really heated up, they knew that this could be a problem. They knew if they pushed him through despite, you know, Blasey Ford's allegations and confirmed him, that they could potentially lose the House. And clearly they made a calculation that this is worth it. They wanted to change the balance of the court. There were people in the White House saying even before this that they thought the House was gone. That's why they wanted to push the president toward a shutdown fight before the election, not after.

So, look, they -- they made their bed. They're going to sleep in it. And I think they, at the end of the day, even if they lose the House over it, they're probably going to be fine with the result.

KING: The main goal was -- the main goal now --

BADE: The main goal (INAUDIBLE) Kavanaugh.

KING: The main goal -- the main goal now is to keep the Senate. And when you look at that map, we're going to talk about this for the next 29 days, because we're going to be up late. It looks -- we could be up late going through the time zones watching those Senate races, all of them very close. At least you can count six, seven races right now within single digits. It's going to be a fun 29 days, fun from our perspective, not probably if you're a candidate.

Up next, the president, who seemed ready to fire Rod Rosenstein, now says -- I don't know, is (ph) he taking a big flight with him today, he's going to keep him around.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:57] KING: Welcome back. Air Force One about to touchdown in Orlando. And we're awaiting

details on just what, if anything, was said during a flight between the president of the United States and his deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein. Both now about to attend a law enforcement event down in Florida.

Rosenstein's future has been up in the air since those reports surfaced last month beginning in "The New York Times," that he once floated the idea of secretly recording the president and then perhaps using the 25th Amendment to try to remove the president from office.

Now, Rosenstein denies it. Before taking off, the president diffusing some of the drama by saying he has no plans to fire the deputy AG and says it will be a friendly chat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, we're going to be talking. We'll be talking on the plane. I actually have a good relationship other than there's been no collusion, folks.

I didn't know Rod before, but I've gotten to know him and I get along very well with him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: CNN crime and justice reporter Shimon Prokupecz is with us now. He's at the event site in Orlando.

Explain, if you can, this Kumbaya.

SHIMON PROKUPECZ, CRIME AND JUSTICE REPORTER: Yes, it's certainly a surprise, right, John, here that no one expected for Rod Rosenstein to accompany the president aboard Air Force One to this event. Those surprising remarks this morning from the president.

Look, all along, you know, we have been told that the president and Rod Rosenstein actually do have a good relationship, that they were communicating and that "The New York Times" article, of course, concerned the president, but his lawyers, the president's lawyers, all of his attorneys who have been working on the Russia investigation, have been urging him not to fire Rod Rosenstein and it seems with this morning's announcement certainly that they can breathe a sigh of relief. The concern has always been that if he was to fire Rod Rosenstein, it could impact the progression of the Russia investigation.

There are some concerns, obviously, that perhaps Mueller could look at it as an obstruction and some another issue if the president was to fire Rod Rosenstein because, of course, he's overseeing the Russia investigation. The other concern has been is that this could be winding down, this Russia investigation. And since Rod Rosenstein is in charge of the Russia investigation, it probably would be best for the president not to fire him because hopefully, hopefully certainly people close to the president, they at least think that this could be finally coming to an end. KING: Shimon, wish I could change places. I'd love to be at that event

today, be a fly on the wall in the conversation as well. Appreciate that, Shimon Prokupecz.

Let's come into the room.

I mean, just think about this, even -- look, the president politically has decided after the election maybe. Everyone expects after the election or early in the New Year both the attorney general and the deputy attorney general could be either pressured to leave, asked to leave or could decide themselves two years is enough, I'm out of here.

But Rod Rosenstein knows everything Bob Mueller's doing. Bob Mueller has to get his permission to do this, to do that, to take this to the grand jury. And you're the president of the United States and this is the giant cloud over your presidency and you're just like this with him. How could you --

DAVIS: I mean to be a fly on the wall in that conversation would be amazing.

But, I mean, we -- I say this all the time about President Trump, you know, the big stereotype about him is that he loves to fire people, he gets really angry and he wants to fire people. But he actually rarely goes that step and does fire someone.

And just think about some of the last backs and forth we've seen with members of the senior staff. John Kelly, the chief of staff, they had -- they relationship had really cooled. They had been completely distant. All of a sudden we hear that John Kelly has committed to stay in the White House until 2020, and that's all sort of under the -- under the rug.

And now he's sort of doing the same with Rod Rosenstein. It's almost like a cat playing with a mouse, sort of batting him around, just sort of enjoying this interregnum of Rod Rosenstein not knowing if he's here to stay or a short timer and the president not really wanting to do anything that he doesn't know what the outcome of it is going to be.

It is true, though, that because Rod Rosenstein knows so much about the investigation, and the president is so eager to see this brought to a close, he may ask him something, there may be a conversation in there that is really not appropriate. And Rod Rosenstein's big concern, my colleagues reported when that story came out or shortly after, was that he was going to be unceremoniously let go and his reputation would be tarnished. So this idea of bringing him on Air Force One I think is really fascinating. It's clear the president is trying to send some signals here, at least in the -- in the short term.

[12:20:09] KING: At least in the short-term.

And I just want to put the headline up from "The New York Times" story just to remind people because, as we all noted in the last block after Kavanaugh and the Manafort trials before that, Rod Rosenstein suggested secretly recording Trump and discussed the 25th Amendment.

This was -- story was in the wake of the anonymous op-ed in "The New York Times" from load (ph) stars, I like to call him, the anonymous official, saying there are a bunch of us who every day actively essentially ignore the president and try to keep the government on track because the president's erratic. I'm sorry, knowing what we know about President Trump, he is not going to forget that even if he hits the because button.

BADE: Yes, that's why this whole thing that they're BFFs now is totally perplexing and confusing.

Republicans, Trump allies on The Hill, have been trying to find a reason to get rid of Rosenstein for a long time. They've talked about document production, said he has been forthcoming with Congress and now, you know, Trump, the president and his allies have a reason from that "New York Times" report to actually dig into something here. And they've really held their fire. And it's just so confusing.

I do know that on Capitol Hill, Republicans are actually going to be talking to Rosenstein I believe Thursday about these reports and whether he really did say he was going to secretly tape the president or talk about the 25th Amendment. So I guess the question is, is this even real? And if it is, how long can this last? I just don't -- it's so confusing.

BACON: I would say, they're not aligned on Mueller, but Rosenstein sat behind Kavanaugh during the hearing. Rosenstein was in charge of this FBI investigationist (ph) thing that helped the confirmation process go along. Rosenstein has been on team Trump on most policy issues. I know Russia is a huge issue, but Kavanaugh, he was actually, I would argue, somewhat helpful in. And on things like policing, he's aligned with the administration's policies more broadly. So I'm not sure that they have tension (ph) on one issue, but right now Rosenstein actually, I would say, helped Trump on a big thing.

KING: Helped Trump on a big thing. I still want to be in that room if they -- remember, it's a big plane. It's a 747. The president said --

BACON: (INAUDIBLE).

KING: The president said they would talk. So one's assuming they're going to at least have a hello, how are you? But it's a big plane. If the president doesn't want to talk to you, he has a cabin up front. There's a staff cabin in the middle where you can sit on a long flight and never know the president's even on the same plane. But we shall see.

Coming up for us, Mitch McConnell moves the goalpost for election year Supreme Court vacancies and he defends the very messy fight over now Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), MAJORITY LEADER: We've had big fights over other things and the country will be just fine. (END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:27:13] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), MAJORITY LEADER: You have to go back to 1880 to find the last time a vacancy created in a presidential election year on the Supreme Court was confirmed by a Senate of a different party than the president. That's the history.

CHRIS WALLACE, HOST, "FOX NEWS SUNDAY": So if you can't answer my direct question, are you saying that if Donald Trump --

MCCONNELL: If we get a -- if we can -- well, the -- the answer to your question is, we'll see whether there's a vacancy in 2020.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: That's Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who's feeling his oats at the moment. That's on "Fox News Sunday" yesterday, artfully dodging a clear answer, which implies he just might consider confirming a Supreme Court nominee in the election year 2020 if Republicans still control the Senate and if President Trump gets a vacancy. This, of course, after the 2016 controversy over the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Merrick Garland by a Democratic president, Barack Obama. McConnell's answer on Fox led to this debate on Supreme Court history on CBS.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), MAJORITY LEADER: They also have conveniently forgotten that Joe Biden said in 1992 when he was chairman of the Judiciary Committee, the Democrats controlled the Senate, Republican in the White House, if a vacancy occurred, they wouldn't fill it.

JOHN DICKERSON, HOST, "FACE THE NATION": I don't think that's right. In 1956, Eisenhower nominated Brennan (ph), the 84th Congress was Democrat controlled. And also on the Biden rule, Joe Biden was talking in the abstract. There was no nominee, no nominee was blocked and --

MCCONNELL: That's not at all what happened, John. You're completely misconstruing what happened.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: McConnell is right on the history. Eisenhower gave a recess appointment in 1956. The formal nomination and consideration by the Senate didn't happen until after the presidential election year. So McConnell is right on the details. There was a justice seated during a presidential election year. We had a Republican president, Dwight Eisenhower, and a Democratic Senate, but there was no confirmation until after.

But just to the audacity of that, he's essentially saying, yes, I did this to a Democratic president in 2016 and let's see what happened in 2020. If we still control the Senate and Donald Trump gets a vacancy, he didn't say I wouldn't do that, that would be wrong, especially in this bitter climate. He just said, hold your fire.

MATTINGLY: Yes, let me go ahead and put an end to the murkiness here.

KING: Phil, do it.

MATTINGLY: If there is an opening in 2020 and he's still the Senate majority leader, he will confirm a Supreme Court nominee. And there's two things here. First off, the Biden rule or the Schumer rule or anything, that's all ridiculous. I'm sorry. I know they cite that as the precedent.

KING: Right.

MATTINGLY: It's not precedent. It's not a rule. It's not -- it's their grounds for what they decided to do in 2016 and that's fine. But this has always been about confirming the person they want in the Supreme Court. It became an election issue. It became an enormous victory for what Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made his entire career about and certainly the last year and a half about, which is completely reshaping the federal courts in a conservative manner. He has now done that with two Supreme Court seats. He's now done this with 26 circuit court justices. Another 10 are queued up and could be coming in the near future. If there is another opportunity to tilt the court even further towards the conservative side of things, if you think Mitch McConnell is not going to take that opportunity, I don't know what movie you've been watching over the course of the last three years.

[12:30:08] KING: Right.