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Trump's Midterm Test; Early Voting Record; Democrats Fight for House. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired November 06, 2018 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:00:22] JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to INSIDE POLITICS. I'm John King. Thank you for sharing Election Day with us.

Control of the House is at stake. The Senate too. And Democrats predict tonight's vote count will deliver them big gains at the state level also.

It's cliche, but very true today, turnout is the big question. Does the Trump base deliver another surprise or do millennials and minorities join suburban women in sending President Trump a bruising midterm message.

The president is watching from the White House, home after a busy rally schedule in which he embraced the biggest midterm dynamic. Today's vote is above all else a referendum on him. And he seemed all too happy to soak that in.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Thank you very much, Missouri. You are incredible, incredible people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: And we begin there. Democracy at work today. Election Day across the United States. The campaigning is done. The voting, underway. Polls opening this hour in Hawaii, which means voters in every single state across the country now casting ballots. People fighting through bad weather here on the East Coast. Also, long lines in Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Texas and Wisconsin. We're watching critical races today in each of those states and more.

By far the biggest question, what is America's midterm verdict on President Trump? Democrats are within reach, favored, in fact, on this map, to retake the House, which would create a giant roadblock to the Trump agenda, not to mention new avenues for oversight and investigations.

The Senate map, let me take a peek and switch it over for you so you can see it. The Senate map favors Republicans. Democrats, though, do see some late evidence of movement in places like Missouri and Indiana, and they hope at least to block Republicans from adding to their 51-seat majority.

Races for governor, state legislatures, they don't get as much national attention, but they are critical today to Democratic hopes of rebuilding outside of Washington, including in some giant 2020 battlegrounds. The president went all in over the final weeks, finishing the three stops yesterday in states where Senate seats hang in the balance. There, the president, again, added some fiction and a lot of fear to a turnout message centered on immigration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Democrats are inviting caravan after caravan, isn't that nice, of illegal aliens to flood into our country and overwhelm your communities.

If the radical Democrats take power, they will take a wrecking ball to our economy and to the future of our country. As we speak, Democrats are openly encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws and violate our borders.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: An important day and I'm grateful to have a great group with me to share their reporting and their insights.

CNN's Manu Raju, CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Julie Hirschfeld Davis of "The New York Times," Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report," and from "The Pollsters" podcast, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero.

Everybody jump in whenever you have something to say.

I just want to start with a couple of images. Look at "The Drudge Report." With him or against him, Matt Drudge says. That's what a midterm election is, especially the president's first one. Here, on the cover of "The New York Post," a little more dramatic or fun, if you will. What, me worry? The president on a lounge chair.

To the president's credit, whether you like him or not, he wasn't on a lounge chair. He was out there campaigning.

Let me start with you, Amy. The single biggest thing you are looking for today, the first clue that will tell you, is this a blue wave or is the president about to surprise us again?

AMY WALTER, NATIONAL EDITOR, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": I love Indiana because it closes early. And this is one of those Senate races that for a long time Republicans were feeling really confident that that was absolutely in the bag.

KING: Right.

WALTER: Now you talk to most folks and they say they really do not know what's going to happen in Indiana. It's the biggest question mark.

Now, that doesn't mean just because it closes early we're going to get the results early, as you well know, John.

KING: Hello, Lane (ph) County.

WALTER: But -- but if Joe Donnelly were to hold on, that would be, to me, a sign that this wave is a lot bigger than --

KING: It will tell you something big.

And to the numbers ladies, the pollsters, let's look at this. NBC/"Wall Street Journal" final poll before the midterm. The direction of the country, 38 percent say right direction, 54 percent say the country's on the wrong track, 54 percent say the country is on the wrong track, even though seven in 10 Americans, look at these numbers, 68 percent of Americans are satisfied with the economy. Am I right in saying this is about the president's tone, not his tax cuts?

[12:05:04] KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, CO-HOST, "THE POLLSTERS" PODCAST: I think it's not necessarily all about the president's tone. I think if you ask people, do you think the country's on the right track or the wrong track, there are lots of reasons why people might think it's on the wrong track. Maybe it's because they think the president is setting the wrong tone, but maybe they think the country's divided and it's not the president's fault. It's the Democrats' fault. We need to follow-up on that question to know what people are really saying. And so I think you have a lot of voters turning out because they are dissatisfied with where things are headed, but that doesn't necessarily always mean that they are blaming the president.

MARGIE OMERO, CO-HOST, "THE POLLSTERS" PODCAST: It is one of those places where qualitative focus groups really matches up with quantitative because every single focus group I start with, how are things going in your town or this area and people say, oh, they're great. They're opening up a new whatever -- something here and I like the school. There's lots of festivals for me to take my kids to. And I'm like, great, how about the country? And everyone says, oh, it is terrible. Everything is miserable. Everybody's fighting. It's the one thing that unites us is this feeling that we're divided.

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And one --

KING: That's one thing. And so in many midterm campaigns, especially the first midterm campaign, it's always about the president. It's American's first chance to vote after a presidential election to send some national message, are you doing great, do we want a check and balance on this, do we want to switch parties in the Congress? It is striking to me, in my lifetime, when seven in 10 Americans say they're satisfied with the economy, that they seem ready to deliver a message to the incumbent president.

Again, to the president's credit, some president's duck it and say it's not about me. This president has campaigned and said, it is about me. And it's not just him. Listen to his son, Eric.

ERIC TRUMP, PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SON: His name is not on the ballot, but America is winning. America is winning. We are winning at everything we do. Our economy is winning. If you can't win on true accomplishments and things that you can quantify, let's just talk about style all day. And I don't think Americans care about style. I think Americans care about results. I know I care about results. And, again, this country is doing great. This country is doing great.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Margie made a point about focus groups. I've watched a lot with suburban women. They tend to care about style or how -- that might not be their word for it.

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Well, it's interesting because I spent the last several days on the road at Trump rallies and talking to attendees in general, but in particular with women who are very supportive of Donald Trump, and they are also, a lot of them, not that happy about his style. I talked to one woman who said she, like Melania, would like to take his phone away. And they sort of roll their eyes. But it's really -- there's a lot of tolerance among the women who are very supportive of him for his style, for his bombastic way of speaking, even for his falsehoods. They say, oh, well, you know, he thought he had it right or maybe he embellished a little bit, but it's almost like they're talking about a crazy uncle who they, you know, sort of -- they've always loved and they always will.

But, you know, there is this problematic demographic for Republicans, and particularly some of these Republicans in the more competitive House races. And, you know, the Demographic is also going to be in play in a lot of these Senate races. They do not like that tone. They are personally offended by that tone. And it might just make them look to the Democrat to see if they can't sort of change some of this division that I think everyone is so fed up with on both sides of the spectrum.

RAJU: And to that point, I mean I think the question is going to be when the president -- the president's message, this scorched earth campaigning that he's done the last several weeks, on immigration, on issues like that, whether that helped him perhaps with some Senate races in deep red states, like we saw in Missouri, or in Indiana, but hurt him with that key demographic in those House races, suburban districts in Virginia, suburban districts throughout the country where Republicans need to hold these seats in order to keep the majority. How much is his effort to save the Senate hurting him in the House races? At the end of the day, that's a big question we'll learn tonight.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He surrounded himself by women at the end of his rallies last night. I was at Cape Girardeau last night for his final rally of the season, we think, until the run-offs. More on that later. He called Sarah Sanders to the stage. He called Kellyanne Conway to the state. Ivanka was on the stage. So he was talking a lot about that before he called the Missouri Senate candidate. It was about 30 or 35 minutes into the rally before he had Josh Hawley up. But that is the question. They know that he is -- has issues among women voters.

One thing that I'm watching for, we talk a lot about enthusiasm. We know there's enthusiasm. Neither side knows which way that's going to break. Democrats are convinced it's because that people are going to send a message to Trump. Trump voters are convinced that they are coming out to support him and stand up for him. So we don't know the answer to that question, which side the enthusiasm goes. It may be both.

WALTER: And that's -- and that's what's so different about this midterm compared to all other midterms.

ZELENY: Right.

WALTER: Why does a party lose in a wave election? Because their voters tend to stay home, or at least not turn out at the level they need to. The out party is the most enthusiastic. They're the most angry. They turn out.

This does not look like it's going to be that traditional drop-off in midterms, but I think we could be seeing Democratic levels, you know, in some places it needs to be five points higher, in some places it can be one point higher and that's enough. So that, though, is what puts -- Jeff's totally right, that puts this question mark on so many of these very competitive races.

KING: And to that point, one of your colleagues, or brethren, Stan Greenberg, I was reading a note he put out last night. He thinks the president has overdone it. He gets it. It's about the base. Get out and rally the base. He makes the point in a memo that the president, yes, rallies the Tea Party part of his base, rallies the evangelical part of his base, but may fracture away -- ether turn away stay home and vote or turn away in the case of suburban Republican women to vote for the Democrat with his tone at the late end. Is there any way to know that until we count votes?

[12:10:16] ANDERSON: Well, I think it -- this is why you're seeing the results -- the expectation so split between the House and the Senate. The places where Republicans will benefit the most from really getting their base out are in a lot of these red states where there are venerable Democratic senators. But in many of these blue state suburbs, a lot of these toss-up districts in places like New Jersey, California, these are places where the president's turn out the base strategy may not be as advantageous. So the House and Senate, very different pictures.

WALTER: Except you know what I want to look for? I want to look for those districts though where Trump carried and Clinton had carried. And if turning out the base is what helps save those House districts or if they still go in a blue wave. That suggests that maybe this pump up the base rally doesn't work.

OMERO: But we shouldn't be surprised that, you know, Trump is playing to the base at this point. I mean this is the -- this has been his one move his whole -- the whole time. He had other opportunities. So -- you know, infrastructure week, right, many times and hasn't gotten around to it. So it shouldn't be a surprise that we are now in a situation where you have all these women, an incredible diverse field of candidates on the left. It is -- it didn't just happen from this last wave of news. It's been building for an entire cycle.

KING: And we've got time to go through these in the hour ahead as we go through them.

Up next for us, testing time for the Democrats. Nancy Pelosi says every race is a drop of water and she's betting on enough wins to make a blue wave. This morning, the former vice president says he's gambling Pelosi got it right.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, FORMER U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: I will be dumbfounded if we lose the House. Dumbfounded. I still think there's a shot of us winning the Senate. I'm hoping Bredesen in Tennessee, (INAUDIBLE), is able to pull it out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:16:01] KING: Live pictures there. Democracy at work. Powder Springs, Georgia. People voting.

Wherever you live, wherever you live, you've still got a chance. If you haven't, get out there and vote.

This midterm vote is a referendum on President Trump, which also makes it a giant test for the Democrats. They raised money by the boat load, bet on health care as their national message and are banking on anger at the president's tone and tweets to deliver a turnout trifecta. Millennials, minorities and college educated women.

Let's take a look. The Democrat's best opportunity is to retake the House. Here's how we rank it heading into the vote, 187 solid, five likely, 15 lean Democrat. That, if it played out that way, would leave the Democrats within 11 seats of the 218 for a majority. Republicans have the majority now, but they are on defense today.

So, how will we know? Well, in the northeast, just in the northeast, New York and New England, Democrats think they can pick up seven, eight. They need 23 total. They think they can get seven, eight, maybe even more just from New York to the north.

Then we'll move down here. This is going to be giant for the Democrats. Can they pick up four, five or more? Pennsylvania, they've redrawn the line. A lot of opportunities there.

In Virginia, a giant test. Do the Democrats just get this one in the northern Virginia suburbs? That should be a gimmie for the Democrats. If they're getting it, by how much? And do they have a shot, will they pick up one, two tossups here? Virginia will tell you, if Democrats get one, we're in for a long night. If Democrats get two or three, then there is evidence of a blue wave.

How else will we know that, look at the exit polls when they come out. Is this a typical midterm year, or is this more like a presidential election? Democrats need it to be closer to a presidential election. What do I mean by that, look at the Obama win in 2008. A much younger electorate. See the younger electorate here? In 2010 midterms, Republicans have a huge year -- a huge year. This year, it's a younger electorate.

Also, in the midterm year, when Republicans had such a big year in 2010, it's a whiter electorate. Democrats need a more diverse electorate, like this, in a presidential year.

This may not seem like much, but midterm years tend to be more men. Democratic years -- I mean presidential years, more women. Democrats need women. Not only to be 53 percent. They'd like it even a little bit higher than that tonight.

The women with the most at stake when it comes to this map, the House map, is Nancy Pelosi. She has an interesting way of describe -- ask her, is it a blue wave, is it a blue tsunami? She says --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D), MINORITY LEADER: I feel confident that we will win. It's just a question of what -- the size the victory is. Now when people ask me how -- is it a wave or a tsunami? I said all of those are drops of water. These races are very close across the country and it will be many drops of water. How many? A victory, and, many more, a wave. How many more, a tsunami.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: So let's talk drops of water and the challenge for the Democrats. We'll get to the Republicans in the next segment. Let's talk to the challenge for the Democrats here.

And from what you see, from what you see, you see early voting, I know we have some numbers we can put up here. Under 30 vote, we're going to show you a handful of states here that are very important, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas. If you look at the under 30 vote, it does seem to be running at or near presidential -- much closer to presidential levels than to typical midterm elections. Does that tell you Democrats -- I'll start with the Republican -- does that tell you Democrats have building block number one that they need today?

ANDERSON: It suggests that Republicans have really failed to do the work they need to do to try to win over young voters I think because they're being so energized by this presidential cycle. But I also would caution folks from reading too much into early vote numbers. Early voting is a relatively new phenomenon. We don't yet know with certainty, are these folks that would have turned out on election day anyways? Are they new voters? This very well could be a great sign for Democrats. But I'm not confident enough that we have enough of a track record to know exactly what these early vote numbers mean.

KING: You could ask the Clinton campaign in Florida in 2016.

ANDERSON: Exactly. KING: They made the case, look at our numbers. They thought they were great. But essentially they were cannibalizing their own vote, turning out people who were going to shod (ph) anyway. So we don't know that.

How big, Margie -- how -- when we look at the national exit polls, or pick a state if you want instead, what is the -- when it comes to men/women, what does it have to be for the Democrats for you to know, when you see the early exit polls, for you to know, OK, I can open a bottle of wine, as opposed to you're going to be stressed all night?

[12:20:03] OMERO: Well, I think there will be a lot of people opening bottles of wine regardless of what's happening.

But for, you know, usually how it works is that women will vote more Democratic than men. That's been true. That's a gender gap. And party identification been true since 1980.

Typically when Democrats have been successful, there's been a gender gap. But men have also voted Democratic.

KING: Right.

OMERO: This time we may have women vote so Democratic that men may still vote Republican and Democrats may still be successful in the House. And that would be new. And so then we're looking at the gap. We're looking at the difference between men and women. And also how Democratic the women are in their turnout.

KING: And as we look at turnout, one thing we tend to forget here in Washington are these races for governor, which are incredibly important for the states involved, for the 2020 map and the calculation, for post 2020 redistricting.

Florida has a fascinating race. Florida is always neck and neck. That's just the way it is. No matter who you run, it's going to end up neck and neck.

WALTER: Yes.

KING: But Andrew Gillum, the Tallahassee mayor, trying to be the state's first African-American governor. And often -- often candidates for governor say, this is not about the national dynamic. Andrew Gillum, after he voted today said, actually, it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYOR ANDREW GILLUM (D), FLORIDA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: Us winning tonight I think will send a message, to Mr. Trump, to Mr. DeSantis as well, that the politics of hatred and of division, of separation, that they've come to an end. People are going out and they're voting for something and not against. And by voting for something, we're returning the politics of decency and what's right and what's common between all of us.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KING: Florida, one, I view these as -- you know, if you look at the state legislatures, the governors races, not just the House and the Senate, Democrats got wiped out outside of Washington in the Obama years.

WALTER: Yes.

KING: This is the -- this is their opportunity to start a rebuilding.

WALTER: That's right. And that's why -- you know, Florida's going to get a ton of attention, as it should. Georgia as well. Both of those races have been nationalized.

But in a lot of these sort of red states or states that used to be blue but went red during the Trump year, during the 2016 election, the Democratic candidates aren't necessarily nationalizing those elections.

KING: Right.

WALTER: They want to make it much more about the local issues, especially in a place like South Dakota, where if you nationalize a governor's race in South Dakota as a Democrat, you would absolutely lose.

But I do think that's going to be the big story tonight is what kind of gains Democrats make back in those blue wall states with their governorships and, of course, many of those governors have the power to, even if they don't get the legislature back in those states, Democrats don't, the veto pen is what it -- what they have for redistricting.

ZELENY: Look at the way Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan --

WALTER: Yes.

ZELENY: All those Trump states that he proclaimed as his own.

KING: (INAUDIBLE).

ZELENY: Remember that victory tour he took after -- exactly -- after the 2016 election, he took this victory tour to go to all of these new Trump states. He seldom visited those same places in this campaign.

WALTER: Yes.

DAVIS: that's right.

ZELENY: He went to deep red places. So as he begins 2020, which really begins, in his mind, right now, he will have to go back to those places.

But look at Iowa tonight. Look at Wisconsin tonight. If Scott Walker falls. If the Democrat wins in Iowa. It's just a reminder that these states are not locked in permanent Trump states. So that's what I'm watching tonight in the middle of the country there. RAJU: In the Florida governor's race, too, the president has put his stamp on that race more than any other governor's race. If it were not for him, Ron DeSantis may not have won that primary. And if he loses, the fingers will be pointed back at him for pushing forward a candidate who probably was going to be weaker in a general election than his opponent though.

DAVIS: Well, and that's a really good example of a place where, you know, the president has made this real push to identify himself, tie himself to DeSantis, which DeSantis was very enthusiastic about having him do. You saw the ad with his baby in the Trump onesie and everything.

But the question is, no question that DeSantis needs the Trump effect there to motivate the Republican base and get him -- you know, lifted him in that way. But is the backlash against Trump and against some of the rhetoric in that race that both DeSantis and Trump have recently used? He said that Andrew Gillum was not equipped to be governor and it just wasn't for him. Well, people react in such a strong way to that on the Democratic side that it washes out any gain that Trump might have given him from the base.

KING: Like you mentioned Indiana before. Like Indiana, Florida is always fun. Sometimes the count goes on a little bit. Stay with us.

WALTER: A little bit.

KING: A little bit.

Up next, while Republicans hope to defy the midterm odds and one race receiving special attention is the Texas Senate race. And by special we mean Triumph, the insult dog.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tell me this, Beto, does it concern you that half your base thinks they can vote for you through Instagram?

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: Well, I just want to say to Triumph, my advice is walk away.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Walk away --

[12:24:34] CRUZ: And just remember, it wasn't the Republicans, it was the Democrats that took you into the vet to get fixed. There is freedom on the other side.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:29:26] KING: These images just moments ago in Kirkwood, Missouri. Senator Claire McCaskill among the embattled Democratic incumbents casting her ballot again in the state of Missouri today. She's hoping for another six year term. Now Republicans know the midterm history is against them, as are the president's poll numbers, in much, but not all, of the country. To Republicans have a race by race approach. And this is the map that gives the GOP some hope. One-third of the Senate is up every two years. And this 2018 map is a giant gift to Republicans because so many of the big races are in states the president won big two years ago, like Claire McCaskill's Missouri. That's a tossup. We rank it there. We talked a bit earlier about Indiana. Democrat Joe Donnelly in a tough climate. Look at the map this way. We currently have it 49 Republicans, 45 Democrats.